A comparative study of leptospirosis and dengue in Thai children

Background

Leptospirosis is an emerging zoonosis that is often under-recognized in children and commonly confused with dengue in tropical settings. An enhanced ability to distinguish leptospirosis from dengue in children would guide clinicians and public health personnel in the appropriate use of limited healthcare resources.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a prospective, hospital-based, study of children with acute febrile illnesses and dengue in Thailand. Among the children without dengue, we identified those with leptospirosis using anti-leptospira IgM and microscopic agglutination titers in paired acute and convalescent blood samples. We then performed a case-control comparison of symptoms, signs, and clinical laboratory values between children with leptospirosis and dengue.In a semi-rural region of Thailand, leptospirosis accounted for 19% of the non-dengue acute febrile illnesses among children presenting during the rainy season. None of the children with leptospirosis were correctly diagnosed at the time of hospital discharge, and one third (33%) were erroneously diagnosed as dengue or scrub typhus. A predictive model to distinguish pediatric leptospirosis from dengue was generated using three variables: the absolute neutrophil count, plasma albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase levels in the first 72 hours of illness.

Conclusions/Significance

Unrecognized leptospirosis can be a significant cause of “dengue-like” febrile illness in children. Increased awareness of pediatric leptospirosis, and an enhanced ability to discriminate between leptospirosis and dengue early in illness, will help guide the appropriate use of healthcare resources in often resource-limited settings.     

The early clinical features of dengue in adults: challenges for early clinical diagnosis

Background

The emergence of dengue throughout the tropical world is affecting an increasing proportion of adult cases. The clinical features of dengue in different age groups have not been well examined, especially in the context of early clinical diagnosis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We structured a prospective study of adults (≥18 years of age) presenting with acute febrile illness within 72 hours from illness onset upon informed consent. Patients were followed up over a 3–4 week period to determine the clinical outcome. A total of 2,129 adults were enrolled in the study, of which 250 (11.7%) had dengue. Differences in the rates of dengue-associated symptoms resulted in high sensitivities when the WHO 1997 or 2009 classification schemes for probable dengue fever were applied to the cohort. However, when the cases were stratified into age groups, fewer older adults reported symptoms such as myalgia, arthralgia, retro-orbital pain and mucosal bleeding, resulting in reduced sensitivity of the WHO classification schemes. On the other hand, the risks of severe dengue and hospitalization were not diminshed in older adults, indicating that this group of patients can benefit from early diagnosis, especially when an antiviral drug becomes available. Our data also suggests that older adults who present with fever and leukopenia should be tested for dengue, even in the absence of other symptoms.

Conclusion

Early clinical diagnosis based on previously defined symptoms that are associated with dengue, even when used in the schematics of both the WHO 1997 and 2009 classifications, is difficult in older adults.     

The diagnostic sensitivity of dengue rapid test assays is significantly enhanced by using a combined antigen and antibody testing approach

Background

Serological tests for IgM and IgG are routinely used in clinical laboratories for the rapid diagnosis of dengue and can differentiate between primary and secondary infections. Dengue virus non-structural protein 1 (NS1) has been identified as an early marker for acute dengue, and is typically present between days 1–9 post-onset of illness but following seroconversion it can be difficult to detect in serum.

Aims

To evaluate the performance of a newly developed Panbio® Dengue Early Rapid test for NS1 and determine if it can improve diagnostic sensitivity when used in combination with a commercial IgM/IgG rapid test.

Methodology

The clinical performance of the Dengue Early Rapid was evaluated in a retrospective study in Vietnam with 198 acute laboratory-confirmed positive and 100 negative samples. The performance of the Dengue Early Rapid in combination with the IgM/IgG Rapid test was also evaluated in Malaysia with 263 laboratory-confirmed positive and 30 negative samples.

Key Results

In Vietnam the sensitivity and specificity of the test was 69.2% (95% CI: 62.8% to 75.6%) and 96% (95% CI: 92.2% to 99.8) respectively. In Malaysia the performance was similar with 68.9% sensitivity (95% CI: 61.8% to 76.1%) and 96.7% specificity (95% CI: 82.8% to 99.9%) compared to RT-PCR. Importantly, when the Dengue Early Rapid test was used in combination with the IgM/IgG test the sensitivity increased to 93.0%. When the two tests were compared at each day post-onset of illness there was clear differentiation between the antigen and antibody markers.

Conclusions

This study highlights that using dengue NS1 antigen detection in combination with anti-glycoprotein E IgM and IgG serology can significantly increase the sensitivity of acute dengue diagnosis and extends the possible window of detection to include very early acute samples and enhances the clinical utility of rapid immunochromatographic testing for dengue.     

Dengue deaths in Puerto Rico: lessons learned from the 2007 epidemic

Background

The incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care.

Methods

Fatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death.

Results

Among 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged <15 years; 7 sought medical care at least once prior to hospital admission, 9 were admitted to hospital and 2 died upon arrival. The nine hospitalized case-patients stayed a mean of 15 hours (range: 3–48 hours) in the emergency department (ED) before inpatient admission. Five of the nine case-patients received intravenous methylprednisolone and four received non-isotonic saline while in shock. Eight case-patients died in the hospital; five had their terminal event on the inpatient ward and six died during a weekend. Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances.

Conclusions

During a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient monitoring.     

Cytokine Expression Profile of Dengue Patients at Different Phases of Illness

Background

Dengue is an important medical problem, with symptoms ranging from mild dengue fever to severe forms of the disease, where vascular leakage leads to hypovolemic shock. Cytokines have been implicated to play a role in the progression of severe dengue disease; however, their profile in dengue patients and the synergy that leads to continued plasma leakage is not clearly understood. Herein, we investigated the cytokine kinetics and profiles of dengue patients at different phases of illness to further understand the role of cytokines in dengue disease.

Methods and Findings

Circulating levels of 29 different types of cytokines were assessed by bead-based ELISA method in dengue patients at the 3 different phases of illness. The association between significant changes in the levels of cytokines and clinical parameters were analyzed. At the febrile phase, IP-10 was significant in dengue patients with and without warning signs. However, MIP-1β was found to be significant in only patients with warning signs at this phase. IP-10 was also significant in both with and without warning signs patients during defervescence. At this phase, MIP-1β and G-CSF were significant in patients without warning signs, whereas MCP-1 was noted to be elevated significantly in patients with warning signs. Significant correlations between the levels of VEGF, RANTES, IL-7, IL-12, PDGF and IL-5 with platelets; VEGF with lymphocytes and neutrophils; G-CSF and IP-10 with atypical lymphocytes and various other cytokines with the liver enzymes were observed in this study.

Conclusions

The cytokine profile patterns discovered between the different phases of illness indicate an essential role in dengue pathogenesis and with further studies may serve as predictive markers for progression to dengue with warning signs.     

Use of saliva for early dengue diagnosis

Background

The necessity of a venous blood collection in all dengue diagnostic assays and the high cost of tests that are available for testing during the viraemic period hinder early detection of dengue cases and thus could delay cluster management. This study reports the utility of saliva in an assay that detects dengue virus (DENV)–specific immunoglobulin A (Ig A) early in the phase of a dengue infection.

Methods and Findings

Using an antigen capture anti-DENV IgA (ACA) ELISA technique, we tested saliva samples collected from dengue-confirmed patients. The sensitivity within 3 days from fever onset was over 36% in primary dengue infections. The performance is markedly better in secondary infections, with 100% sensitivity reported in saliva samples from day 1 after fever onset. Serum and salivary IgA levels showed good correlation (Pearson''s r = 0.69, p<0.001). Specificity was found to be 97%.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that this technique would be very useful in dengue endemic regions, where the majority of dengue cases are secondary. The ACA-ELISA is easy to perform, cost effective, and especially useful in laboratories without sophisticated equipment. Our findings established the usefulness and reliability of saliva for early dengue diagnosis.     

Dengue infection in children in Ratchaburi, Thailand: a cohort study. II. Clinical manifestations

Background

Dengue infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases. More data regarding the disease burden and the prevalence of each clinical spectrum among symptomatic infections and the clinical manifestations are needed. This study aims to describe the incidence and clinical manifestations of symptomatic dengue infection in Thai children during 2006 through 2008.

Study Design

This study is a school-based prospective open cohort study with a 9,448 person-year follow-up in children aged 3–14 years. Active surveillance for febrile illnesses was done in the studied subjects. Subjects who had febrile illness were asked to visit the study hospital for clinical and laboratory evaluation, treatment, and serological tests for dengue infection. The clinical data from medical records, diary cards, and data collection forms were collected and analyzed.

Results

Dengue infections were the causes of 12.1% of febrile illnesses attending the hospital, including undifferentiated fever (UF) (49.8%), dengue fever (DF) (39.3%) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) (10.9%). Headache, anorexia, nausea/vomiting and myalgia were common symptoms occurring in more than half of the patients. The more severe dengue spectrum (i.e., DHF) had higher temperature, higher prevalence of nausea/vomiting, abdominal pain, rash, diarrhea, petechiae, hepatomegaly and lower platelet count. DHF cases also had significantly higher prevalence of anorexia, nausea/vomiting and abdominal pain during day 3–6 and diarrhea during day 4–6 of illness. The absence of nausea/vomiting, abdominal pain, diarrhea, petechiae, hepatomegaly and positive tourniquet test may predict non-DHF.

Conclusion

Among symptomatic dengue infection, UF is most common followed by DF and DHF. Some clinical manifestations may be useful to predict the more severe disease (i.e., DHF). This study presents additional information in the clinical spectra of symptomatic dengue infection.     

Dengue infection and miscarriage: a prospective case control study

Background

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito borne infection worldwide. Vertical transmissions after maternal dengue infection to the fetus and pregnancy losses in relation to dengue illness have been reported. The relationship of dengue to miscarriage is not known.

Method

We aimed to establish the relationship of recent dengue infection and miscarriage. Women who presented with miscarriage (up to 22 weeks gestation) to our hospital were approached to participate in the study. For each case of miscarriage, we recruited 3 controls with viable pregnancies at a similar gestation. A brief questionnaire on recent febrile illness and prior dengue infection was answered. Blood was drawn from participants, processed and the frozen serum was stored. Stored sera were thawed and then tested in batches with dengue specific IgM capture ELISA, dengue non-structural protein 1 (NS1) antigen and dengue specific IgG ELISA tests. Controls remained in the analysis if their pregnancies continued beyond 22 weeks gestation. Tests were run on 116 case and 341 control sera. One case (a misdiagnosed viable early pregnancy) plus 45 controls (39 lost to follow up and six subsequent late miscarriages) were excluded from analysis.

Findings

Dengue specific IgM or dengue NS1 antigen (indicating recent dengue infection) was positive in 6/115 (5·2%) cases and 5/296 (1·7%) controls RR 3·1 (95% CI 1·0–10) P = 0·047. Maternal age, gestational age, parity and ethnicity were dissimilar between cases and controls. After adjustments for these factors, recent dengue infection remained significantly more frequently detected in cases than controls (AOR 4·2 95% CI 1·2–14 P = 0·023).

Interpretation

Recent dengue infections were more frequently detected in women presenting with miscarriage than in controls whose pregnancies were viable. After adjustments for confounders, the positive association remained.     

Clinical relevance and discriminatory value of elevated liver aminotransferase levels for dengue severity

Background

Elevation of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is prominent in acute dengue illness. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines defined AST or ALT≥1000 units/liter (U/L) as a criterion for severe dengue. We aimed to assess the clinical relevance and discriminatory value of AST or ALT for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and severe dengue.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We retrospectively studied and classified polymerase chain reaction positive dengue patients from 2006 to 2008 treated at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore according to WHO 1997 and 2009 criteria for dengue severity. Of 690 dengue patients, 31% had DHF and 24% severe dengue. Elevated AST and ALT occurred in 86% and 46%, respectively. Seven had AST or ALT≥1000 U/L. None had acute liver failure but one patient died. Median AST and ALT values were significantly higher with increasing dengue severity by both WHO 1997 and 2009 criteria. However, they were poorly discriminatory between non-severe and severe dengue (e.g., AST area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve = 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.67) and between dengue fever (DF) and DHF (AST area under the ROC curve = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.52–0.61). There was significant overlap in AST and ALT values among patients with dengue with or without warning signs and severe dengue, and between those with DF and DHF.

Conclusions

Although aminotransferase levels increased in conjunction with dengue severity, AST or ALT values did not discriminate between DF and DHF or non-severe and severe dengue.     

Decision tree algorithms predict the diagnosis and outcome of dengue fever in the early phase of illness

Background

Dengue is re-emerging throughout the tropical world, causing frequent recurrent epidemics. The initial clinical manifestation of dengue often is confused with other febrile states confounding both clinical management and disease surveillance. Evidence-based triage strategies that identify individuals likely to be in the early stages of dengue illness can direct patient stratification for clinical investigations, management, and virological surveillance. Here we report the identification of algorithms that differentiate dengue from other febrile illnesses in the primary care setting and predict severe disease in adults.

Methods and Findings

A total of 1,200 patients presenting in the first 72 hours of acute febrile illness were recruited and followed up for up to a 4-week period prospectively; 1,012 of these were recruited from Singapore and 188 from Vietnam. Of these, 364 were dengue RT-PCR positive; 173 had dengue fever, 171 had dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 20 had dengue shock syndrome as final diagnosis. Using a C4.5 decision tree classifier for analysis of all clinical, haematological, and virological data, we obtained a diagnostic algorithm that differentiates dengue from non-dengue febrile illness with an accuracy of 84.7%. The algorithm can be used differently in different disease prevalence to yield clinically useful positive and negative predictive values. Furthermore, an algorithm using platelet count, crossover threshold value of a real-time RT-PCR for dengue viral RNA, and presence of pre-existing anti-dengue IgG antibodies in sequential order identified cases with sensitivity and specificity of 78.2% and 80.2%, respectively, that eventually developed thrombocytopenia of 50,000 platelet/mm³ or less, a level previously shown to be associated with haemorrhage and shock in adults with dengue fever.

Conclusion

This study shows a proof-of-concept that decision algorithms using simple clinical and haematological parameters can predict diagnosis and prognosis of dengue disease, a finding that could prove useful in disease management and surveillance.     

Are Lay People Good at Recognising the Symptoms of Schizophrenia?

Aim

The aim of this study was to explore the general public’s perception of schizophrenia symptoms and the need to seek-help for symptoms. The recognition (or ‘labelling’) of schizophrenia symptoms, help-seeking behaviours and public awareness of schizophrenia have been suggested as potentially important factors relating to untreated psychosis.

Method

Participants were asked to rate to what extent they believe vignettes describing classic symptoms (positive and negative) of schizophrenia indicate mental illness. They were also asked if the individuals depicted in the vignettes required help or treatment and asked to suggest what kind of help or treatment.

Results

Only three positive symptoms (i.e., Hallucinatory behaviour, Unusual thought content and Suspiciousness) of schizophrenia were reasonably well perceived (above 70%) as indicating mental illness more than the other positive or negative symptoms. Even when the participants recognised that the symptoms indicated mental illness, not everyone recommended professional help.

Conclusion

There may be a need to improve public awareness of schizophrenia and psychosis symptoms, particularly regarding an awareness of the importance of early intervention for psychosis.     

Dengue incidence in urban and rural Cambodia: results from population-based active fever surveillance, 2006-2008

Background

Dengue vaccines are now in late-stage development, and evaluation and robust estimates of dengue disease burden are needed to facilitate further development and introduction. In Cambodia, the national dengue case-definition only allows reporting of children less than 16 years of age, and little is known about dengue burden in rural areas and among older persons. To estimate the true burden of dengue in the largest province of Cambodia, Kampong Cham, we conducted community-based active dengue fever surveillance among the 0-to-19–year age group in rural villages and urban areas during 2006–2008.

Methods and Findings

Active surveillance for febrile illness was conducted in 32 villages and 10 urban areas by mothers trained to use digital thermometers combined with weekly home visits to identify persons with fever. An investigation team visited families with febrile persons to obtain informed consent for participation in the follow-up study, which included collection of personal data and blood specimens. Dengue-related febrile illness was defined using molecular and serological testing of paired acute and convalescent blood samples. Over the three years of surveillance, 6,121 fever episodes were identified with 736 laboratory-confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infections for incidences of 13.4–57.8/1,000 person-seasons. Average incidence was highest among children less than 7 years of age (41.1/1,000 person-seasons) and lowest among the 16-to-19–year age group (11.3/1,000 person-seasons). The distribution of dengue was highly focal, with incidence rates in villages and urban areas ranging from 1.5–211.5/1,000 person-seasons (median 36.5). During a DENV-3 outbreak in 2007, rural areas were affected more than urban areas (incidence 71 vs. 17/1,000 person-seasons, p<0.001).

Conclusion

The large-scale active surveillance study for dengue fever in Cambodia found a higher disease incidence than reported to the national surveillance system, particularly in preschool children and that disease incidence was high in both rural and urban areas. It also confirmed the previously observed focal nature of dengue virus transmission.     

Knowledge, awareness and practices regarding dengue fever among the adult population of dengue hit cosmopolitan

Background

The World health Organization (WHO) declares dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever to be endemic in South Asia. Despite the magnitude of problem, no documented evidence exists in Pakistan which reveals the awareness and practices of the country''s adult population regarding dengue fever, its spread, symptoms, treatment and prevention. This study was conducted to assess the level of knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding dengue fever in people visiting tertiary care hospitals in Karachi, Pakistan.

Methods

A cross-sectional pilot study was conducted among people visiting tertiary care hospitals in Karachi. Through convenience sampling, a pre-tested and structured questionnaire was administered through a face-to-face unprompted interview with 447 visitors. Knowledge was recorded on a scale of 1–3.

Results

About 89.9% of individuals interviewed had heard of dengue fever. Sufficient knowledge about dengue was found to be in 38.5% of the sample, with 66% of these in Aga Khan University Hospital and 33% in Civil Hospital Karachi. Literate individuals were relatively more well-informed about dengue fever as compared to the illiterate people (p<0.001). Knowledge based upon preventive measures was found to be predominantly focused towards prevention of mosquito bites (78.3%) rather than eradication of mosquito population (17.3%). Use of anti- mosquito spray was the most prevalent (48.1%) preventive measure. Television was considered as the most important and useful source of information on the disease.

Conclusion

Adult population of Karachi has adequate knowledge related to the disease ‘dengue’ on isolated aspects, but the overall prevalence of ‘sufficient knowledge’ based on our criteria is poor. We demonstrated adequate prevalence of preventive practices against the disease. Further studies correlating the association between knowledge and its effectiveness against dengue will be helpful in demonstrating the implications of awareness campaigns.     

Economic impact of dengue illness and the cost-effectiveness of future vaccination programs in Singapore

Background

Dengue illness causes 50–100 million infections worldwide and threatens 2.5 billion people in the tropical and subtropical regions. Little is known about the disease burden and economic impact of dengue in higher resourced countries or the cost-effectiveness of potential dengue vaccines in such settings.

Methods and Findings

We estimate the direct and indirect costs of dengue from hospitalized and ambulatory cases in Singapore. We consider inter alia the impacts of dengue on the economy using the human-capital and the friction cost methods. Disease burden was estimated using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine program was evaluated. The average economic impact of dengue illness in Singapore from 2000 to 2009 in constant 2010 US$ ranged between $0.85 billion and $1.15 billion, of which control costs constitute 42%–59%. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated an annual average disease burden of 9–14 DALYs per 100 000 habitants, making it comparable to diseases such as hepatitis B or syphilis. The proportion of symptomatic dengue cases detected by the national surveillance system was estimated to be low, and to decrease with age. Under population projections by the United Nations, the price per dose threshold for which vaccines stop being more cost-effective than the current vector control program ranged from $50 for mass vaccination requiring 3 doses and only conferring 10 years of immunity to $300 for vaccination requiring 2 doses and conferring lifetime immunity. The thresholds for these vaccine programs to not be cost-effective for Singapore were $100 and $500 per dose respectively.

Conclusions

Dengue illness presents a serious economic and disease burden in Singapore. Dengue vaccines are expected to be cost-effective if reasonably low prices are adopted and will help to reduce the economic and disease burden of dengue in Singapore substantially.     

Clinical and virological study of dengue cases and the members of their households: the multinational DENFRAME Project

Background

Dengue has emerged as the most important vector-borne viral disease in tropical areas. Evaluations of the burden and severity of dengue disease have been hindered by the frequent lack of laboratory confirmation and strong selection bias toward more severe cases.

Methodology

A multinational, prospective clinical study was carried out in South-East Asia (SEA) and Latin America (LA), to ascertain the proportion of inapparent dengue infections in households of febrile dengue cases, and to compare clinical data and biological markers from subjects with various dengue disease patterns. Dengue infection was laboratory-confirmed during the acute phase, by virus isolation and detection of the genome. The four participating reference laboratories used standardized methods.

Principal Findings

Among 215 febrile dengue subjects—114 in SEA and 101 in LA—28 (13.0%) were diagnosed with severe dengue (from SEA only) using the WHO definition. Household investigations were carried out for 177 febrile subjects. Among household members at the time of the first home visit, 39 acute dengue infections were detected of which 29 were inapparent. A further 62 dengue cases were classified at early convalescent phase. Therefore, 101 dengue infections were found among the 408 household members. Adding these together with the 177 Dengue Index Cases, the overall proportion of dengue infections among the study participants was estimated at 47.5% (278/585; 95% CI 43.5–51.6). Lymphocyte counts and detection of the NS1 antigen differed significantly between inapparent and symptomatic dengue subjects; among inapparent cases lymphocyte counts were normal and only 20% were positive for NS1 antigen. Primary dengue infection and a specific dengue virus serotype were not associated with symptomatic dengue infection.

Conclusion

Household investigation demonstrated a high proportion of household members positive for dengue infection, including a number of inapparent cases, the frequency of which was higher in SEA than in LA.     

Prediction of dengue incidence using search query surveillance

Background

The use of internet search data has been demonstrated to be effective at predicting influenza incidence. This approach may be more successful for dengue which has large variation in annual incidence and a more distinctive clinical presentation and mode of transmission.

Methods

We gathered freely-available dengue incidence data from Singapore (weekly incidence, 2004–2011) and Bangkok (monthly incidence, 2004–2011). Internet search data for the same period were downloaded from Google Insights for Search. Search terms were chosen to reflect three categories of dengue-related search: nomenclature, signs/symptoms, and treatment. We compared three models to predict incidence: a step-down linear regression, generalized boosted regression, and negative binomial regression. Logistic regression and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models were used to predict a binary outcome defined by whether dengue incidence exceeded a chosen threshold. Incidence prediction models were assessed using and Pearson correlation between predicted and observed dengue incidence. Logistic and SVM model performance were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Models were validated using multiple cross-validation techniques.

Results

The linear model selected by AIC step-down was found to be superior to other models considered. In Bangkok, the model has an , and a correlation of 0.869 between fitted and observed. In Singapore, the model has an , and a correlation of 0.931. In both Singapore and Bangkok, SVM models outperformed logistic regression in predicting periods of high incidence. The AUC for the SVM models using the 75th percentile cutoff is 0.906 in Singapore and 0.960 in Bangkok.

Conclusions

Internet search terms predict incidence and periods of large incidence of dengue with high accuracy and may prove useful in areas with underdeveloped surveillance systems. The methods presented here use freely available data and analysis tools and can be readily adapted to other settings.     

Dengue virus activates polyreactive, natural IgG B cells after primary and secondary infection

Background

Dengue virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and has four serotypes. Cross-protection to other serotypes lasting for a few months is observed following infection with one serotype. There is evidence that low-affinity T and/or B cells from primary infections contribute to the severe syndromes often associated with secondary dengue infections. such pronounced immune-mediated enhancement suggests a dengue-specific pattern of immune cell activation. This study investigates the acute and early convalescent B cell response leading to the generation of cross-reactive and neutralizing antibodies following dengue infection.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We assayed blood samples taken from dengue patients with primary or secondary infection during acute disease and convalescence and compared them to samples from patients presenting with non-dengue related fever. Dengue induced massive early plasmablast formation, which correlated with the appearance of polyclonal, cross-reactive IgG for both primary and secondary infection. Surprisingly, the contribution of IgG to the neutralizing titer 4–7 days after fever onset was more than 50% even after primary infection.

Conclusions/Significance

Poly-reactive and virus serotype cross-reactive IgG are an important component of the innate response in humans during both primary and secondary dengue infection, and “innate specificities” seem to constitute part of the adaptive response in dengue. While of potential importance for protection during secondary infection, cross-reactive B cells will also compete with highly neutralizing B cells and possibly interfere with their development.     

Effect of preventive supplementation with zinc and other micronutrients on non-malarial morbidity in tanzanian pre-school children: a randomized trial

Background

The efficacy of preventive zinc supplementation against diarrhea and respiratory illness may depend on simultaneous supplementation with other micronutrients. We aimed to assess the effect of supplementation with zinc and multiple micronutrients on diarrhea and other causes of non-malarial morbidity.

Methods and Findings

Rural Tanzanian children (n = 612) aged 6–60 months and with height-for-age z-score < –1.5 SD were randomized to daily supplementation with zinc (10 mg) alone, multi-nutrients without zinc, multi-nutrients with zinc, or placebo. Children were followed for an average of 45 weeks. During follow-up, we recorded morbidity episodes. We found no evidence that concurrent supplementation with multi-nutrients influenced the magnitude of the effect of zinc on rates of diarrhea, respiratory illness, fever without localizing signs, or other illness (guardian-reported illness with symptoms involving skin, ears, eyes and abscesses, but excluding trauma or burns). Zinc supplementation reduced the hazard rate of diarrhea by 24% (4%–40%). By contrast, multi-nutrients seemed to increase this rate (HR; 95% CI: 1.19; 0.94–1.50), particularly in children with asymptomatic Giardia infection at baseline (2.03; 1.24–3.32). Zinc also protected against episodes of fever without localizing signs (0.75; 0.57–0.96), but we found no evidence that it reduced the overall number of clinic visits.

Conclusions

We found no evidence that the efficacy of zinc supplements in reducing diarrhea rates is enhanced by concurrent supplementation with other micronutrients. By reducing rates of fever without localizing signs, supplementation with zinc may reduce inappropriate drug use with anti-malarial medications and antibiotics.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00623857","term_id":"NCT00623857"}}NCT00623857     

Sphingosine 1-Phosphate in Acute Dengue Infection

Background

Vascular leak is the hallmark of severe dengue infections and leads to complications such as shock and multi-organ failure. Although many mediators have been implicated in the vascular leak in dengue, the role of sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) has not been investigated.

Metholodology/Principal findings

As S1P has been shown to be important in barrier integrity, we assessed the S1P levels in 28 patients with acute dengue and 12 healthy individuals. The S1P levels were significantly lower in patients with acute dengue (p = 0.002) and the levels in patients with grade IV dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) were significantly lower than those with dengue fever (p = 0.005). We then investigated the kinetics of S1P levels throughout the course of the illness in another 32 patients in serum samples obtained twice a day. We found that S1P levels were low throughout the course of illness and S1P levels were <0.5 µM in 12/23 patients with DHF when compared to 1/9 with DF.

Conclusions/Significance

As S1P has shown to be important in the endothelial barrier integrity and increases transendothelial resistance, low levels of S1P in acute dengue infection are likely to contribute to increased vascular permeability.