Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

Aim Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well‐being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We explore potential methods to identify areas vulnerable to vegetation shifts and potential refugia. Location Global vegetation biomes. Methods We examined nine combinations of three sets of potential indicators of the vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change: (1) observed changes of 20th‐century climate, (2) projected 21st‐century vegetation changes using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, and (3) overlap of results from (1) and (2). Estimating probability density functions for climate observations and confidence levels for vegetation projections, we classified areas into vulnerability classes based on IPCC treatment of uncertainty. Results One‐tenth to one‐half of global land may be highly (confidence 0.80–0.95) to very highly (confidence ≥ 0.95) vulnerable. Temperate mixed forest, boreal conifer and tundra and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to potential changes in wildfire. Tropical evergreen broadleaf forest and desert biomes show the lowest vulnerability. Main conclusions Spatial analyses of observed climate and projected vegetation indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change. A mismatch between vulnerability patterns and the geographic priorities of natural resource organizations suggests the need to adapt management plans. Approximately a billion people live in the areas classified as vulnerable.     

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude × longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long‐term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics.     

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species‐specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species‐specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) to evaluate forest response to climate–wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium–high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate‐specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought‐tolerant species over less drought‐tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid‐elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape‐level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome‐based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century.     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift

Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline.     

Projected climate change effects on Alberta's boreal forests imply future challenges for oil sands reclamation

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to “equivalent land capability,” implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.     

Climate-Driven Effects of Fire on Winter Habitat for Caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.     

Globally consistent climate sensitivity of natural disturbances across boreal and temperate forest ecosystems

Disturbance regimes are changing in forests across the world in response to global climate change. Despite the profound impacts of disturbances on ecosystem services and biodiversity, assessments of disturbances at the global scale remain scarce. Here, we analyzed natural disturbances in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems for the period 2001–2014, aiming to 1) quantify their within- and between-biome variation and 2) compare the climate sensitivity of disturbances across biomes. We studied 103 unmanaged forest landscapes with a total land area of 28.2 × 10⁶ ha, distributed across five continents. A consistent and comprehensive quantification of disturbances was derived by combining satellite-based disturbance maps with local expert knowledge of disturbance agents. We used Gaussian finite mixture models to identify clusters of landscapes with similar disturbance activity as indicated by the percent forest area disturbed as well as the size, edge density and perimeter–area-ratio of disturbed patches. The climate sensitivity of disturbances was analyzed using Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect models and a globally consistent climate dataset. Within-biome variation in natural disturbances was high in both boreal and temperate biomes, and disturbance patterns did not vary systematically with latitude or biome. The emergent clusters of disturbance activity in the boreal zone were similar to those in the temperate zone, but boreal landscapes were more likely to experience high disturbance activity than their temperate counterparts. Across both biomes high disturbance activity was particularly associated with wildfire, and was consistently linked to years with warmer and drier than average conditions. Natural disturbances are a key driver of variability in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems, with high similarity in the disturbance patterns between both biomes. The universally high climate sensitivity of disturbances across boreal and temperate ecosystems indicates that future climate change could substantially increase disturbance activity.     

Spatiotemporal Variations of Fire Frequency in Central Boreal Forest

Determination of the direct causal factors controlling wildfires is key to understanding wildfire–vegetation–climate dynamics in a changing climate and for developing sustainable management strategies for biodiversity conservation and maintenance of long-term forest productivity. In this study, we sought to understand how the fire frequency of a large mixedwood forest in the central boreal shield varies as a result of temporal and spatial factors. We reconstructed the fire history of an 11,600-km² area located in the northwestern boreal forest of Ontario, using archival data of large fires occurring since 1921 and dendrochronological dating for fires prior to 1921. The fire cycle decreased from 295 years for the period of 1820–1920 to approximately 100 years for the period of 1921–2008. Spatially, fire frequency increased with latitude, attributable to higher human activities that have increased fragmentation and fire suppression in the southern portion of the study area. Fire frequency also increased with distance to waterbodies, and was higher on Podzols that were strongly correlated with moderate drainage and coniferous vegetation. The temporal increase of fire frequency in the central region, unlike western and eastern boreal forests where fire frequency has decreased, may be a result of increased warm and dry conditions associated with climate change in central North America, suggesting that the response of wildfire to global climate change may be regionally individualistic. The significant spatial factors we found in this study are in agreement with other wildfire studies, indicating the commonality of the influences by physiographic features and human activities on regional fire regimes across the boreal forest. Overall, wildfire in the central boreal shield is more frequent than that in the wetter eastern boreal region and less frequent than that in the drier western boreal region, confirming a climatic top-down control on the fire activities of the entire North American boreal forest.     

Frequent fires in ancient shrub tundra: implications of paleorecords for arctic environmental change

Understanding feedbacks between terrestrial and atmospheric systems is vital for predicting the consequences of global change, particularly in the rapidly changing Arctic. Fire is a key process in this context, but the consequences of altered fire regimes in tundra ecosystems are rarely considered, largely because tundra fires occur infrequently on the modern landscape. We present paleoecological data that indicate frequent tundra fires in northcentral Alaska between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago. Charcoal and pollen from lake sediments reveal that ancient birch-dominated shrub tundra burned as often as modern boreal forests in the region, every 144 years on average (+/- 90 s.d.; n = 44). Although paleoclimate interpretations and data from modern tundra fires suggest that increased burning was aided by low effective moisture, vegetation cover clearly played a critical role in facilitating the paleofires by creating an abundance of fine fuels. These records suggest that greater fire activity will likely accompany temperature-related increases in shrub-dominated tundra predicted for the 21(st) century and beyond. Increased tundra burning will have broad impacts on physical and biological systems as well as on land-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic, including the potential to release stored organic carbon to the atmosphere.     

Persistent and pervasive compositional shifts of western boreal forest plots in Canada

Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late‐successional conifers to early‐successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age‐dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age‐dependent succession, the relative abundances of early‐successional deciduous broadleaves and early‐successional conifers have increased at the expense of late‐successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO₂ promoted early‐successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early‐successional conifers at the expense of late‐successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO₂ and warming will continue in the 21st century.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

Adapting to global environmental change in Patagonia: What role for disturbance ecology?

Research from the Patagonian‐Andean region is used to explore challenges and opportunities related to the integration of research on wildfire activity into a broader earth‐system science framework that views the biosphere and atmosphere as a coupled interacting system for understanding the causes and consequences of future wildfire activity. We examine how research in disturbance ecology can inform land‐use and other policy decisions in the context of probable future increases in wildfire activity driven by climate forcing. Climate research has related recent warming and drying trends in much of Patagonia to an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode which is the leading pattern of extratropical climate variability in the southern hemisphere. Although still limited in spatial extent, tree‐ring fire history studies are beginning to reveal regional patterns of the top‐down climate influences on temporal and spatial pattern of wildfire occurrence in Patagonia. Knowledge of relationships of fire activity to climate variability in the context of predicted future warming leads to the hypothesis that wildfire activity in Patagonia will increase substantially during the first half of the 21st century. In addition to this anticipated increase in extreme fire events due to climate forcing, we further hypothesize that current land‐use trends will increase the extent and/or severity of fire events through bottom‐up (i.e. land surface) influences on wildfire potential. In particular, policy discussions of how to mitigate impacts of climate warming on fire potential need to consider research results from disturbance ecology on the implications of continued planting of flammable non‐native trees and the role of introduced herbivores in favouring vegetation changes that may enhance landscape flammability.     

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate – including short‐ and long‐term droughts – are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire‐related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.     

Simulating the effects of future fire regimes on western Canadian boreal forests

Abstract. Effects of future fire regimes on boreal tree species and plant functional types were studied in W Canada using a simulation approach. Present (1975–1990) and future (2080–2100) fire regimes were simulated using data from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM1). The long‐term effects of these fire regimes were simulated using a stand level, boreal fire effects model (BORFIRE) developed for this study. Changes in forest composition and biomass storage due to future altered fire regimes were determined by comparing the effects of present and future fire regimes on forest stands over a 400‐yr period. Differences in the two scenarios after 400 yr indicate shifting trends in forest composition and biomass that can be expected as a result of future changes in the fire regime. The ecological impacts of altered fire regimes are discussed in terms of general plant functional types. The Canadian Global Coupled Model showed more severe burning conditions under future fire regimes including fires with greater intensity, greater depth of burn and greater total fuel consumption. Shorter fire cycles estimated for the future generally favoured species which resprout (fire endurers) or store seed (fire evaders). Species with no direct fire survival traits (fire avoiders) declined under shorter fire cycles. The moderately thick barked trait of fire resisters provided little additional advantage in crown fire dominated boreal forests. Many species represent PFTs with multiple fire survival traits. The fire evader and avoider PFT was adaptable to the widest range of fire cycles. There was a general increase in biomass storage under the simulated future fire regimes caused by a shift in species composition towards fast‐growing re‐sprouting species. Long‐term biomass storage was lower in fire exclusion simulations because some stands were unable to reproduce in the absence of fire.     

Projecting the distribution of forests in New England in response to climate change

Aim To project the distribution of three major forest types in the northeastern USA in response to expected climate change. Location The New England region of the United States. Methods We modelled the potential distribution of boreal conifer, northern deciduous hardwood and mixed oak–hickory forests using the process‐based BIOME4 vegetation model parameterized for regional forests under historic and projected future climate conditions. Projections of future climate were derived from three general circulation models forced by three global warming scenarios that span the range of likely anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Results Annual temperature in New England is projected to increase by 2.2–3.3 °C by 2041–70 and by 3.0–5.2 °C by 2071–99 with corresponding increases in precipitation of 4.7–9.5% and 6.4–11.4%, respectively. We project that regional warming will result in the loss of 71–100% of boreal conifer forest in New England by the late 21st century. The range of mixed oak–hickory forests will shift northward by 1.0–2.1 latitudinal degrees (c. 100–200 km) and will increase in area by 149–431% by the end of the 21st century. Northern deciduous hardwoods are expected to decrease in area by 26% and move upslope by 76 m on average. The upslope movement of the northern deciduous hardwoods and the increase in oak–hickory forests coincide with an approximate 556 m upslope retreat of the boreal conifer forest by 2071–99. In our simulations, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reduce the losses of boreal conifer forest in New England from expected losses based on climatic change alone. Main conclusion Projected climate warming in the 21st century is likely to cause the extensive loss of boreal conifer forests, reduce the extent of northern hardwood deciduous forests, and result in large increases of mixed oak–hickory forest in New England.     

The greening and browning of Alaska based on 1982–2003 satellite data

Aim To examine the trends of 1982–2003 satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values at several spatial scales within tundra and boreal forest areas of Alaska. Location Arctic and subarctic Alaska. Methods Annual maximum NDVI data from the twice monthly Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI 1982–2003 data set with 64‐km² pixels were extracted from a spatial hierarchy including three large regions: ecoregion polygons within regions, ecozone polygons within boreal ecoregions and 100‐km climate station buffers. The 1982–2003 trends of mean annual maximum NDVI values within each area, and within individual pixels, were computed using simple linear regression. The relationship between NDVI and temperature and precipitation was investigated within climate station buffers. Results At the largest spatial scale of polar, boreal and maritime regions, the strongest trend was a negative trend in NDVI within the boreal region. At a finer scale of ecoregion polygons, there was a strong positive NDVI trend in cold arctic tundra areas, and a strong negative trend in interior boreal forest areas. Within boreal ecozone polygons, the weakest negative trends were from areas with a maritime climate or colder mountainous ecozones, while the strongest negative trends were from warmer basin ecozones. The trends from climate station buffers were similar to ecoregion trends, with no significant trends from Bering tundra buffers, significant increasing trends among arctic tundra buffers and significant decreasing trends among interior boreal forest buffers. The interannual variability of NDVI among the arctic tundra buffers was related to the previous summer warmth index. The spatial pattern of increasing tundra NDVI at the pixel level was related to the west‐to‐east spatial pattern in changing climate across arctic Alaska. There was no significant relationship between interannual NDVI and precipitation or temperature among the boreal forest buffers. The decreasing NDVI trend in interior boreal forests may be due to several factors including increased insect/disease infestations, reduced photosynthesis and a change in root/leaf carbon allocation in response to warmer and drier growing season climate. Main conclusions There was a contrast in trends of 1982–2003 annual maximum NDVI, with cold arctic tundra significantly increasing in NDVI and relatively warm and dry interior boreal forest areas consistently decreasing in NDVI. The annual maximum NDVI from arctic tundra areas was strongly related to a summer warmth index, while there were no significant relationships in boreal areas between annual maximum NDVI and precipitation or temperature. Annual maximum NDVI was not related to spring NDVI in either arctic tundra or boreal buffers.     

Spatially explicit fire-climate history of the boreal forest-tundra (Eastern Canada) over the last 2000 years

Across the boreal forest, fire is the main disturbance factor and driver of ecosystem changes. In this study, we reconstructed a long-term, spatially explicit fire history of a forest-tundra region in northeastern Canada. We hypothesized that current occupation of similar topographic and edaphic sites by tundra and forest was the consequence of cumulative regression with time of forest cover due to compounding fire and climate disturbances. All fires were mapped and dated per 100 year intervals over the last 2,000 years using several fire dating techniques. Past fire occurrences and post-fire regeneration at the northern forest limit indicate 70% reduction of forest cover since 1800 yr BP and nearly complete cessation of forest regeneration since 900 yr BP. Regression of forest cover was particularly important between 1500s-1700s and possibly since 900 yr BP. Although fire frequency was very low over the last 100 years, each fire event was followed by drastic removal of spruce cover. Contrary to widespread belief of northward boreal forest expansion due to recent warming, lack of post-fire recovery during the last centuries, in comparison with active tree regeneration more than 1,000 years ago, indicates that the current climate does not favour such expansion.     

Climate change is the primary driver of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary

Quantifying the relative influence of multiple mechanisms driving recent range expansion of non‐native species is essential for predicting future changes and for informing adaptation and management plans to protect native species. White‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have been expanding their range into the North American boreal forest over the last half of the 20th century. This has already altered predator–prey dynamics in Alberta, Canada, where the distribution likely reaches the northern extent of its continuous range. Although current white‐tailed deer distribution is explained by both climate and human land use, the influence each factor had on the observed range expansion would depend on the spatial and temporal pattern of these changes. Our objective was to quantify the relative importance of land use and climate change as drivers of white‐tailed deer range expansion and to predict decadal changes in white‐tailed deer distribution in northern Alberta for the first half of the 21st century. An existing species distribution model was used to predict past decadal distributions of white‐tailed deer which were validated using independent data. The effects of climate and land use change were isolated by comparing predictions under theoretical “no‐change between decades” scenarios, for each factor, to predictions under observed climate and land use change. Climate changes led to more than 88%, by area, of the increases in probability of white‐tailed deer presence across all decades. The distribution is predicted to extend 100 km further north across the northeastern Alberta boreal forest as climate continues to change over the first half of the 21st century.     

Response of green alder (Alnus viridis subsp. fruticosa) patch dynamics and plant community composition to fire and regional temperature in north‐western Canada

Aim Feedbacks between climate warming and fire have the potential to alter Arctic and sub‐Arctic vegetation. In this paper we assess the effects and interactions of temperature and wildfire on plant communities across the transition between the Arctic and sub‐Arctic. Location Mackenzie Delta region, Northwest Territories, Canada. Methods We sampled air temperatures, green alder (Alnus viridis ssp. fruticosa) cover, growth, reproduction and age distributions, and overall plant community composition on burned and unburned sites across a latitudinal gradient. Results Mean summer temperature across the study area decreased by 3 °C per degree of increasing latitude (6 °C across the study area). In the northern part of the study area, where seed viability was low, alder was less dominant than at southern sites where seed viability was high. The age structure of alder populations across the temperature gradient was highly variable, except in the northern part of the forest–tundra transition, where populations were dominated by young individuals. Alder growth and reproduction were significantly greater on burned sites (38–51 years following fire) than on unburned sites. North to south across the temperature gradient, vegetation changed from a community dominated by dwarf shrubs and fruticose lichens to one characterized by black spruce (Picea mariana), alder and willows (Salix spp.). Regardless of the position along the temperature gradient, burned sites were dominated by tall shrubs. Main conclusions Temperature limitation of alder abundance and repro‐duction, combined with evidence of recent recruitment on unburned sites, indicates that alder is likely to respond to increased temperature. Elevated alder growth and reproduction on burned sites shows that wildfire also has an important influence on alder population dynamics. The magnitude of alder’s response to fire, combined with observations that burns at the southern margin of the low Arctic are shrub dominated, suggest that increases in the frequency of wildfire have the potential to alter northern vegetation on decadal scales. By creating new seedbeds, fire provides opportunities for colonization that may facilitate the northward movement of tall shrubs. Feedbacks between the global climate system and low Arctic vegetation make understanding the long‐term impact of increasing fire frequency critical to predicting the response of northern ecosystems to global change.