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1.
We determined the limiting climatic factors, as well as the preferred habitats, of Erica tetralix L. at the eastern limit of its distribution range in the eastern Baltic region. It was found that E. tetralix in this region is a typical bog woodland plant preferring the wettest Sphagnum‐rich sites. Northern Atlantic wet heath fragments, base‐rich fens and species‐rich Nardus grasslands were other habitats for the species. The species composition in E. tetralix habitats resembled that found in appropriate habitats within its main distribution range, although the habitats in the eastern Baltic region lack many Atlantic floristic elements characteristic of wet heath. A generalised linear model describing the climatic niche of E. tetralix in Latvia suggests that mild winters, which exhibit a combination of a shallow maximum depth of soil freezing and a large number of days when the air temperature exceeds 0°C, as well as abundant annual and winter precipitation, are the main factors allowing the presence of E. tetralix in Latvia. The climate parameters at the eastern limit of the species’ distribution range are consistent with those recorded as being suitable for E. tetralix elsewhere. Our results reveal a strong relationship between oceanity and the distribution of E. tetralix. The climatic niche model suggests more climatically suitable areas in the Coastal Lowland geobotanical region where the species could potentially be found, most likely in bog woodlands. The future prospects to restore open areas of northern Atlantic wet heath with E. tetralix in Latvia are poor due to the decline in traditional land‐use; these areas have turned into bog woodlands or been converted into agricultural land.  相似文献   

2.
The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.  相似文献   

3.
The advent of remote-sensed satellite land cover data has provided the opportunity to assess the relationship between invertebrate species distributions and individual land cover types. Water beetle species occur in habitats within specific land cover types and the relationship between the distribution of water beetle species and land covers at the regional scale was investigated using records of 154 species from 1018 sites in north-east England. The land covers of tilled land and urban in the lowlands and of shrub heath and heath grassland in the upland areas proved to be most important in explaining the distribution of species. There were both positive and negative associations between some species and other covers such as woodland and the coast. However, a considerable number of species, generally those with a large number of records, showed no strong relationships with any land cover types. The integration of water beetle species recording data and remote-sensed land cover data as a basis for predicting and monitoring both species distribution and environmental change is discussed.  相似文献   

4.
  1. North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.
  2. We report on the potential spatial distributions of 13 wide-ranging, relatively common species of North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios.
  3. We examined the potential influence of the mean and seasonal climate variables on the distribution of species. Presence-only occurrence records of species, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species’ distribution models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt).
  4. Our results suggested that overall, 11 of the 13 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space (regions where climate conditions will be similar to those of area currently occupied) at the continental scale, but American marten Martes americana and ‘woodland’ caribou Rangifer tarandus are likely to lose suitable climate range by 2070. Furthermore, climate space is likely to be expanding northwards under future climate scenarios for most of the mammals, and many jurisdictions in the border region between Canada and the USA are likely to lose iconic species, such as moose Alces alces. We identified regions as potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia, which are increasingly considered to be important for biodiversity conservation.
  5. The model results suggest significant implications for conservation planning for the 13 mammalian species under global climate change, especially at fine spatial scales. Numerous species that are presently common at their southern range edge will be functionally or completely extirpated in 50 years. The potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia could provide an effective support for adaptive strategies aimed at species conservation planning.
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5.
Upland calcareous grassland landscapes are typically comprised of a matrix of calcareous grassland, acid grassland and limestone heath plant communities. This matrix of habitats is produced by a combination of underlying geology, climate and management. These landscapes are typically managed through grazing, with management targeted to maintain particular plant communities in the calcareous grassland habitat, whilst patches of acid grassland and limestone heath are not targeted by conservation management. The biodiversity value of acid grassland and limestone heath patches within the calcareous grassland matrix are unknown. This study provides the first assessment of their biodiversity value by examining aspects of epigeal spider diversity supported by these non-target habitat patches in comparison to calcareous grassland. Spiders were sampled in each habitat from April to August 2014 using pitfall traps across three upland regions in Great Britain. Spider species assemblages were distinct between limestone heath and both grassland types. Distinction in species assemblages are likely due to differences in vegetation structure and microclimate, e.g., humidity, degree of shade. Each habitat type supported several rare species (e.g., Jacksonella falconeri, Agyneta subtilis) revealing the contribution to spider fauna. The distinct spider species assemblage and presence of rare species in limestone heath patches demonstrate their importance in the upland calcareous grassland matrix. This study highlights the value of monitoring biodiversity in non-target habitats within a habitat matrix alongside those that are actively targeted by management.  相似文献   

6.
Aim The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer‐dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non‐climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.  相似文献   

7.
Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate‐change‐related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community‐level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold‐adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm‐adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool‐adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm‐adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold‐adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food‐web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.  相似文献   

8.
Cold‐adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold‐adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high‐throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineage‐specific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold‐adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.  相似文献   

9.
Although widespread, the ecology of the whiskered bat, Myotis mystacinus in Europe remains poorly understood. Ireland is positioned at the most western extreme of this species’ range. To ascertain the ecology of M. mystacinus at its geographic range extreme, the roosting behaviour, home range and habitat use of females in a maternity roost in Ireland was investigated by radio-tracking. M. mystacinus were active in a diversity of habitats: namely, mixed woodland, riparian vegetation, arable land and rough grassland. However, only mixed woodland and riparian habitats were selected as core foraging areas. This is in contrast to a previous study from Britain where only pasture was utilised but is in agreement with data from Slovakia, where woodland was also selected, whilst riparian areas were also utilised by this species in Germany. A high degree of overlap in the foraging areas of individuals was observed. A total of seven roosts were utilised by tracked bats and roost switching behaviour was observed. We discuss our contrasting results in respect to range limitations, regional variability in landscape structure and the composition of bat communities. The present results have implications for the conservation of M. mystacinus within Ireland and other parts of its range, highlighting the need for range wide ecological studies. Regional variability in the ecology of bats related to landscape factors is an important consideration for bat conservation and therefore must be incorporated into future management plans.  相似文献   

10.
Definition of northern British grassland Auchenorrhyncha habitats was carried out using a classification based on analysis of data from 351 sites, involving 121 species, located between Greater Manchester and northern Scotland. Ten habitats were identified showing little influence of geographical position and exhibiting a basic upland-lowland trend. Other factors influencing habitat and species assemblage distribution were soil water, vegetation structure and land cover. An analysis of the species data with satellite-derived land cover data indicated that the lowland covers of tilled land, coast and urban and the upland covers of heath grassland and shrub heath were most important in affecting both species and assemblage distribution. The large-scale survey of grassland sites provided new information on both the ecology and distribution of individual Auchenorrhyncha species. Some were limited to specific habitat types but a considerable number were generalist species found in most or all of the 10 habitat types but showing preferences within upland to lowland or wet to dry site gradients. The ability to generate a subtle grassland Auchenorrhyncha habitat classification with large-scale survey results from standardised and reproducible sampling increases the potential for using habitat diversity for the conservation of grassland Auchenorrhyncha. Habitat preservation would also ensure that species richness (biodiversity) is maintained and that the habitats of rare species are conserved.  相似文献   

11.
Aims Biogeographical evidence suggests a strong link between climate and patterns of species diversity, and climate change is known to cause range shifts. However, there is little understanding of how shifts affect community composition and we lack empirical evidence of recent impacts of climate change on the diversity of vertebrates. Using a long‐term comprehensive dataset on bird abundance, we explore recent patterns of change in different components of species diversity and avian communities, and postulate a process to explain the observed changes in diversity and specialization. Location Britain. Methods We used Breeding Bird Survey data for Britain from 1994 to 2006 to calculate site‐specific diversity and community specialization indices. We modelled these indices using generalized additive models to examine the relationship between local climate and spatial and temporal trends in community metrics and the relationship between changes in diversity and specialization. Results Local temperature was positively associated with alpha diversity, which increased over the study period, supporting empirical and theoretical predictions of the effect of climate warming. Diversity increased in all habitats, but the rate of increase was greatest in upland areas. However, temperature was negatively associated with community specialization indices, which declined over the same period. Our modelling revealed a nonlinear relationship between community specialization and species diversity. Main conclusions Our models of diversity and specialization provide stark empirical evidence for a link between warming climate and community homogenization. Over a 13‐year period of warming temperatures, diversity indices increased while average community specialization decreased. We suggest that the observed diversity increases were most likely driven by range expansion of generalist species and that future warming is likely to increase homogenization of community structure. When assessed in combination, diversity and specialization measures provide a powerful index for monitoring the impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

12.
Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.  相似文献   

13.
Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km2 of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km2 and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km2 and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.  相似文献   

14.
Many species are more restricted in their habitat associations at the leading edges of their range margins, but some species have broadened their habitat associations in these regions during recent climate change. We examine the effects of multiple, interacting climatic variables on spatial and temporal patterns of species' habitat associations, using the speckled wood butterfly, Pararge aegeria, in Britain, as our model taxon. Our analyses reveal that this species, traditionally regarded as a woodland‐dependent insect, is less restricted to woodland in regions with warmer winters and warmer and wetter summers. In addition, over the past 40 years of climate change, the species has become less restricted to woodland in locations where temperature and summer rainfall have increased most. We show that these patterns arise mechanistically because larval growth rates are slower in open (i.e. nonwoodland) habitats associated with colder microclimates in winter and greater host plant desiccation in summer. We conclude that macro‐ and microclimatic interactions drive variation in species' habitat associations, which for our study species resulted predominantly in a widening of habitat associations under climate change. However, species vary in their climatic and nonclimatic requirements, and so complex spatial and temporal patterns of changes in habitat associations are likely to be observed in future as the climate changes.  相似文献   

15.
Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.  相似文献   

16.
Aim To quantify the interaction between climate and woodland continuity in determining the bioclimatic response of lichen epiphytes. Location Northern Britain (Scotland). Methods Indicator‐species analysis was used to pre‐select lichen epiphytes along parallel gradients in climate and the extent of old‐growth woodland. Nonparametric multiplicative regression was used to describe in a predictive model the individualistic response of selected species, which were projected based on climate‐change scenarios and contrasting patterns of simulated woodland loss or gain. Species with a similar response were grouped using a novel application of cluster analysis to summarize the potentially huge number of projected outcomes. Projected patterns of occurrence under climate‐change scenarios were examined for different levels of old‐growth woodland extent. Results Forty‐two lichen species were statistically significant indicator species in oceanic woodlands, and old‐growth indicators under suboptimal climatic conditions. Responses to climate‐change scenarios were contrasting, with one group comprising species projected to increase in extent in response to climate warming, and other response groups projected to decrease in occurrence, possibly in response to shifting rainfall patterns. The occurrence of all response groups had a positive relationship with old‐growth woodland extent. Main conclusions An ‘oceanic’ biogeographical group of epiphytes identified using the baseline climatic and present‐day woodland setting comprised species with a cyanobacterial photobiont or tropical phytogeographical affinities. However, within this group the individual species responses to climate‐change scenarios were contrasting. Additionally, group responses may be poorly matched with simple ecological traits. However, the studied interaction between climate and habitat continuity suggests that the impact of climate change might be offset for certain lichen epiphytes by appropriate management of woodland resources, for example, expansion of native woodland around remnant old‐growth stands.  相似文献   

17.
Most multicellular terrestrial organisms experience climate at scales of millimetres to metres, yet most species‐climate associations are analysed at resolutions of kilometres or more. Because individuals experience heterogeneous microclimates in the landscape, species sometimes survive where the average background climate appears unsuitable, and equally may be eliminated from sites within apparently suitable grid cells where microclimatic extremes are intolerable. Local vegetation structure and topography can be important determinants of fine‐resolution microclimate, but a literature search revealed that the vast majority of bioclimate studies do not include fine‐scale habitat information, let alone a representation of how habitat affects microclimate. In this paper, we show that habitat type (grassland, heathland, deciduous woodland) is a major modifier of the temperature extremes experienced by organisms. We recorded differences among these habitats of more than 5°C in monthly temperature maxima and minima, and of 10°C in thermal range, on a par with the level of warming expected for extreme future climate change scenarios. Comparable differences were found in relation to variation in local topography (slope and aspect). Hence, we argue that the microclimatic effects of habitat and topography must be included in studies if we are to obtain sufficiently detailed projections of the ecological impacts of climate change to develop detailed adaptation strategies for the conservation of biodiversity.  相似文献   

18.
Living on the edge: British and Irish woodland birds in a European context   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
This paper reviews broad geographical patterns in the species composition of breeding woodland bird communities from Ireland to eastern Europe and outlines how processes affecting woodland birds in Britain and Ireland may differ from those operating in mainland Europe. Bird communities in British and Irish woodlands consist of a subset of the species occurring within European forests at similar latitudes. The occurrence of virtually all groups of forest birds is lower in Britain, and strikingly lower in Ireland, than in other temperate areas of mainland Europe. This phenomenon appears to form part of a west–east gradient in species diversity and is probably not just a consequence of insularity. Across this gradient there appears to be broad geographical constancy in the types (taxonomic, ecological and life-history groups) of species present. There is considerable spatial variation in habitat use by forest species within Europe. Some species in Britain probably use habitats in different ways to elsewhere for reasons related to competition, predation and historical adaptation to landscape change. Several species appear to reach the limits of their geographical ranges within Britain (i.e. in the absence of physical barriers). We suggest that range contraction of one of these species, the Common Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos , in Britain may partially reflect redistribution into the highest quality areas in response to a wider population decline. It is argued that conclusions drawn from studies of forest birds in Britain do not necessarily apply in other regions and vice versa. There is a need for large-scale studies in Europe of the spatial variation in organization of forest bird assemblages, habitat use and the genetic structure of populations.  相似文献   

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