Sex ratios in naturally incubating Macrochelys temminckii nests,a species with type II temperature-dependent sex determination

The alligator snapping turtle, Macrochelys temminckii, exhibits type II temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), wherein females are produced at high and low incubation temperatures. This TSD pattern is well studied at constant temperatures, but little work has focused on sex ratios in natural nests that experience daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations. We monitored nesting activity of reintroduced Macrochelys temminckii at Tishomingo National Wildlife Refuge in 2010–2011. Nests located prior to predation were excavated to determine clutch size and the eggs were reburied with a temperature data logger to collect nest temperatures. Overall, 24% of nests were protected with wire mesh prior to predation, and the average clutch size in intact nests was 22.4 eggs. Nest predation rates in the study population will likely approach 100% if nest protection efforts do not continue. Temperature profiles were used to compare estimated sex ratios using two methods—mean nest temperature during middle third of incubation and the degree-day model—to actual sex ratios in naturally incubated Macrochelys temminckii nests. The sex ratio in all 2010 recruits was female-biased (91.8% female); 2011 nests did not produce any hatchlings, likely the result of severe drought. The predicted sex ratios based on mean nest temperature and the degree-day model matched actual sex ratios in the warmer nests (0% male), but the degree-day model estimate proved more accurate in the cooler nest. A strongly skewed population sex ratio could become a threat to this reintroduced population if the strongly female-biased sex ratio in 2010 reflects a long-term trend.     

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the oxygen content of green sea turtle nests during embryogenesis

Several biotic and abiotic factors can influence nest oxygen content during embryogenesis. Several of these factors were determined during each developmental stage of green sea turtle embryos on Wan-an Island, Penghu Archipelago, Taiwan. We examined oxygen content in 7 nests in 2007 and 11 in 2008. Oxygen in the adjacent sand, total and viable clutch sizes, air, sand and nest temperatures, and sand characters of each nest were also determined. Oxygen content was lower in late stages than in the early and middle stages. It was also lower in the middle layer than in the upper and bottom layers. Nest temperature showed opposite trends, reaching its maximum value in late stages of development. Nest oxygen content was influenced by fraction of viable eggs, total clutch sizes, sand temperatures, maximum nest temperature and maximum change in the nest temperature during incubation. Clutch size during embryogenesis was the most influential factor overall. However, the major influential factors were different for different developmental stages. In the first half of the incubation, the development rate was low, and the change in the nest oxygen content was influenced mainly by the clutch size. During the second half, the rapid embryonic development rate became the dominant factor, and hatchling activities caused even greater oxygen consumption during the last stage of development.     

Incubation temperatures, sex ratios and sex determination in a population of Nile crocodiles (Crocodylus niloticus)

A demographic study of the Nile crocodile Crocodylus niloticus at Lake Ngezi, Zimbabwe, revealed that females predominated in all size classes and among embryos. The sex of C. niloticus was shown to be determined by the temperature of egg incubation in constant temperature laboratory experiments. At 31 °C and below only females were produced. The threshold temperature for maleness was between 31 ° and 34 °C, but appeared to vary between clutches. The duration of the incubation period varied with temperature and was 110 days at 28 °C, falling to 85 days at 34 °C. Incubation temperature affected hatchling length, but not mass. Hatchlings from incubation at 34 °C were shorter on average than those from incubation at 28 °C and 31 °C, but by three months had outgrown them. There was no sex-related difference in length in a random sample of 200 two-year-old C. niloticus on a crocodile farm. Mean temperatures in wild nests were consistently lower than 31 °C and therefore the male threshold as determined in the laboratory. Embryonic development was slow and hatching success poor. The shallowest eggs in a nest had higher mean temperatures and more advanced embryos than the deepest eggs. They also experienced daily temperature fluctuations of up to 10 °C during which the maximum occasionally rose to 35 °C. Constant temperature incubation was not a good model of field conditions, but the correlation between nest temperatures and embryonic sex is consistent with temperature-dependent sex determination in the wild.     

Metabolic heating in Mediterranean loggerhead sea turtle clutches

Offspring sex ratio is an important demographic parameter and, given its determination by incubation temperature in sea turtles, might be a key factor for their conservation under climate warming. An appealing approach to estimate hatchling sex ratios is to measure sand temperatures at nest depth and deduce hatchling sex ratios from a beforehand-established relationship of hatchling sex ratio and sand temperature. Such estimates will only be accurate though if metabolic heat produced by the embryos is considered. Judging whether metabolic heating has a potential effect on hatchling sex ratios without actually measuring temperature within clutches would greatly facilitate monitoring protocols. We tested for a relationship between the amount of metabolic heating and the number of developed embryos as well as clutch size in the largest known loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) population of the Mediterranean on Zakynthos (Greece). Temperatures were measured within 20 nests as well as at a reference site in the sand at nest depth. Metabolic heating was detected, but only during the last third of the incubation period did nests heat up considerably (1.6 °C on average) above the temperature of the surrounding sand. During the middle third of incubation, when sex is determined, the amount of metabolic heating was negligible. The amount of metabolic heating during the last third of the incubation duration was significantly correlated to the number of offspring developed to at least about 75% of incubation duration. This factor explained nearly 50% of variation in metabolic heating. Metabolic heating was also significantly correlated to clutch size. Given that clutch size within the Mediterranean is largest in Zakynthos loggerheads, we conclude that metabolic heating can be ignored in the estimate of hatchling sex ratios in Mediterranean loggerhead populations. These results thus provide the basis for a feasible monitoring of hatchling sex ratios in the loggerhead sea turtle in the Mediterranean.     

Effect of nesting environment on incubation temperature and hatching success of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) in an urban lake of Southeastern Mexico

Incubation temperature is an important aspect in terms of biological performance among crocodiles, and several controlled experiments have demonstrated a significant relationship between incubation temperature, success in hatching and survival of hatchlings. However, a few studies have tested these relationships in the wild. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship of nest characteristics and environment (hatch year, nest basal area and height, clutch size, distance to shore line, and vegetation cover), to incubation temperature and hatching success among Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii). The study was carried out during the nesting seasons of Morelet's crocodile, from 2007 to 2009 in the Laguna de Las Ilusiones, an urban lake located in Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico. We physically characterized 18 nests and inserted a temperature data logger in each nest chamber. At the end of the nesting season and prior to hatching, we recovered the crocodile eggs and data loggers and calculated hatching success, under laboratory conditions. We related the environmental variables of the nest with the mean and fluctuation (standard deviation) of nest temperature, using linear models. We also related the environmental variables affecting the nest, to mean nest temperature and fluctuation in incubation temperature and to hatching success, using linear models. Although we found differences in incubation temperature between nests, mean incubation temperature did not differ between years, but there were differences in nest thermal fluctuation between years. The mean incubation temperature for 11 nests (61.1%) was lower than the suggested Female–Male pivotal temperature (producing 50% of each sex) for this species, and all hatchlings obtained were males. There were no differences in clutch size between years, but hatching success varied. Our study indicates that hatching success depends on certain environmental variables and nest conditions to which the eggs are subjected, including season, nest size and clutch size. We also discuss the importance of the fluctuation of incubation temperature on hatching success and sex determination.     

Nest-site selection and nest size influence the incubation temperature of Morelet's crocodiles

In oviparous tetrapods, the nesting-site selection by females is related to the habitat characteristics, which influences nest incubation temperature. Females can directly influence the incubation temperature by choosing certain construction materials or by building nests of different sizes. There are few studies focusing on these aspects in crocodilians that build mound nests. The aim of this study was to determine whether the nest size, its exposure to solar radiation, and the environmental temperature influence the incubation temperature of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) nests. Artificial nests of two sizes (small and large) were constructed with similar characteristics to natural nests and placed in two locations differing in exposure to solar radiation (shaded and sunny). We used temperature and relative humidity data loggers to record the incubation temperature inside each nest every hour during the species' natural nesting period. Likewise, we recorded the ambient temperature every hour where the experiments were set up with temperature data loggers. We found that nest size and its exposure to solar radiation affected the incubation temperature, with smaller nests in shaded locations having lower incubation temperatures than larger nests in sunny locations. We discuss the importance of nest-site selection and maintenance behaviour of the mound nest by female crocodiles on the incubation temperature of the nest.     

Sex Determination and Sex Ratios in Crocodylus palustris

Incubation temperature determines sex in the mugger crocodile,Crocodylus palustris. Exclusively females are produced at constanttemperatures of 28.0°C through 31°C. At 32.5°C,only males are produced. Both sexes are produced in varyingproportions at 31.5, 32.0, and 33.0°C. Embryo survival isnot affected within this range, but developmental rate and totalincubation time are strongly temperature dependent. In naturalnests laid in breeding enclosures, cool incubation temperaturesproduced only females whereas males were produced only in warmnests. Clutch sex ratios were female or male biased. Yearlysex ratios (=percent male) varied from 0.05 to 0.58; overallsex ratio during six nesting seasons was 0.24 (1 male: 3 females).Sex ratio and incubation time vary with nest location and temperaturein a manner consistent with the constant temperature results.Incubation time decreases with increasing incubation temperature,and is an accurate predictor of sex ratio in the field and laboratory. To date, temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) has beenreported in five species of Crocodylus and in three speciesof Alligatorinae; but the TSD patterns in these groups differ.The TSD pattern of C. palustris is similar to that of C. porosus.Nesting in C. palustris is synchronized with the seasonal availabilityof thermal regimes suitable for incubation. Resultant sex ratiosare a consequence of when and where eggs are laid. Early nestsare located in warm, sunny sites; in contrast, late season nestsare located in the shade. An egg transplant experiment demonstratedthat sex ratios could be altered by simple manipulations ofnest temperatures in the field. The adaptive significance ofTSD in crocodilians may relate to the influence of incubationtemperature on various hatchling attributes, particularly growth.     

Climate change and temperature‐linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site

The study of temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) in vertebrates has attracted major scientific interest. Recently, concerns for species with TSD in a warming world have increased because imbalanced sex ratios could potentially threaten population viability. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the direct effects of increased temperatures on successful embryonic development. Using 6603 days of sand temperature data recorded across 6 years at a globally important loggerhead sea turtle rookery—the Cape Verde Islands—we show the effects of warming incubation temperatures on the survival of hatchlings in nests. Incorporating published data (n = 110 data points for three species across 12 sites globally), we show the generality of relationships between hatchling mortality and incubation temperature and hence the broad applicability of our findings to sea turtles in general. We use a mechanistic approach supplemented by empirical data to consider the linked effects of warming temperatures on hatchling output and on sex ratios for these species that exhibit TSD. Our results show that higher temperatures increase the natural growth rate of the population as more females are produced. As a result, we project that numbers of nests at this globally important site will increase by approximately 30% by the year 2100. However, as incubation temperatures near lethal levels, the natural growth rate of the population decreases and the long‐term survival of this turtle population is threatened. Our results highlight concerns for species with TSD in a warming world and underline the need for research to extend from a focus on temperature‐dependent sex determination to a focus on temperature‐linked hatchling mortalities.     

Metabolic heating and the prediction of sex ratios for green turtles (Chelonia mydas)

We compared incubation temperatures in nests (n=32) of the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) on Ascension Island in relation to sand temperatures of control sites at nest depth. Intrabeach thermal variation was low, whereas interbeach thermal variation was high in both control and nest sites. A marked rise in temperature was recorded in nests from 30% to 40% of the way through the incubation period and attributed to metabolic heating. Over the entire incubation period, metabolic heating accounted for a mean rise in temperature of between 0.07 degrees and 2.86 degrees C within nests. During the middle third of incubation, when sex is thought to be determined, this rise in temperature ranged between 0.07 degrees and 2.61 degrees C. Metabolic heating was related to both the number of eggs laid and the total number of hatchlings/embryos produced in a clutch. For 32 clutches in which temperature was recorded, we estimate that metabolic heating accounted for a rise of up to 30% in the proportion of females produced within different clutches. Previous studies have dismissed any effect of metabolic heating on the sex ratio of marine turtle hatchlings. Our results imply that metabolic heating needs to be considered when estimating green turtle hatchling sex ratios.     

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current ‘cold’ nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10–33 °C) and future ‘hot’ nests (27.0 °C, 14–37 °C). ‘Hot’ incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot‐incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold‐incubated (11%, 58%) or wild‐born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78– 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52– 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18–44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest‐site choices. Over the period 1992–2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest‐site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.     

The feminizing effect of metabolic heating in Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas) clutches in the eastern Mediterranean

Metabolic heating has been poorly investigated in eastern Mediterranean coastline of Turkey, which host some of the most important Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas) nesting sites in the Mediterranean. We studied the effects of clutch size and embryo numbers on nest temperature and discuss the feminizing effect of metabolic heating. Two test sites were conducted in Sugözü Beaches (Turkey). Data loggers were placed in eight nests with different clutch sizes. Nest temperature was strongly correlated with embryo numbers and metabolic heating produced by embryos was calculated to be 0.019°C per late stage embryo and 0.020°C per hatchling. Metabolic heating was calculated to be 0.6°C in the middle third of the incubation period during which sex is determined. It was estimated that metabolic heating increased 10.4% of female hatchlings. The heat produced by embryos should be taken into consideration while estimating sex ratios indirectly by nest and sand temperatures. Additionally, the metabolic heating value should be known for conservation measures, such as nest relocation, dividing the nest for controlling nest temperature, especially related to climate change.     

A novel hypothesis for the adaptive maintenance of environmental sex determination in a turtle

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is widespread in reptiles, yet its adaptive significance and mechanisms for its maintenance remain obscure and controversial. Comparative analyses identify an ancient origin of TSD in turtles, crocodiles and tuatara, suggesting that this trait should be advantageous in order to persist. Based on this assumption, researchers primarily, and with minimal success, have employed a model to examine sex-specific variation in hatchling phenotypes and fitness generated by different incubation conditions. The unwavering focus on different incubation conditions may be misplaced at least in the many turtle species in which hatchlings overwinter in the natal nest. If overwintering temperatures differentially affect fitness of male and female hatchlings, TSD might be maintained adaptively by enabling embryos to develop as the sex best suited to those overwintering conditions. We test this novel hypothesis using the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta), a species with TSD in which eggs hatch in late summer and hatchlings remain within nests until the following spring. We used a split-clutch design to expose field-incubated hatchlings to warm and cool overwintering (autumn–winter–spring) regimes in the laboratory and measured metabolic rates, energy use, body size and mortality of male and female hatchlings. While overall mortality rates were low, males exposed to warmer overwintering regimes had significantly higher metabolic rates and used more residual yolk than females, whereas the reverse occurred in the cool temperature regime. Hatchlings from mixed-sex nests exhibited similar sex-specific trends and, crucially, they were less energy efficient and grew less than same-sex hatchlings that originated from single-sex clutches. Such sex- and incubation-specific physiological adaptation to winter temperatures may enhance fitness and even extend the northern range of many species that overwinter terrestrially.     

High thermal variance in naturally incubated turtle nests produces faster offspring

The effects of climate change on populations are complex and difficult to predict, and can result in mismatches between interdependent organisms or between organisms and their environment. Reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination may be able to compensate for potential skews in offspring sex ratio caused by climate change by selecting cooler (i.e., shadier) nest sites. Although changing nest location may prevent sex ratio skews, it may also affect thermally sensitive performance traits in offspring. I tested righting, sprinting, and swimming performance in hatchling painted turtles (Chrysemys picta), produced by female turtles from five populations across the species’ geographic range, nesting in a common-garden environment. I found that speed of hatchling performance was faster in hatchlings whose mothers originated from warmer climates, and that nests with higher mean daily variation in incubation temperature produced faster hatchlings. These results suggest that the increased temperatures predicted by climate change models could result in hatchling turtles that are faster at sprinting and swimming; however, it is not yet known how these performance measures translate into fitness.     

Reproductive ecology of the jacky dragon (Amphibolurus muricatus): an agamid lizard with temperature‐dependent sex determination

Abstract The jacky dragon, Amphibolurus muricatus (White, ex Shaw 1790) is a medium sized agamid lizard from the southeast of Australia. Laboratory incubation trials show that this species possesses temperature‐dependent sex determination. Both high and low incubation temperatures produced all female offspring, while varying proportions of males hatched at intermediate temperatures. Females may lay several clutches containing from three to nine eggs during the spring and summer. We report the first field nest temperature recordings for a squamate reptile with temperature‐dependent sex determination. Hatchling sex is determined by nest temperatures that are due to the combination of daily and seasonal weather conditions, together with maternal nest site selection. Over the prolonged egg‐laying season, mean nest temperatures steadily increase. This suggests that hatchling sex is best predicted by the date of egg laying, and that sex ratios from field nests will vary over the course of the breeding season. Lizards hatching from eggs laid in the spring (October) experience a longer growing season and should reach a larger body size by the beginning of their first reproductive season, compared to lizards from eggs laid in late summer (February). Adult male A. muricatus attain a greater maximum body size and have relatively larger heads than females, possibly as a consequence of sexual selection due to male‐male competition for territories and mates. If reproductive success in males increases with larger body size, then early hatching males may obtain a greater fitness benefit as adults, compared to males that hatch in late summer. We hypothesize that early season nests should produce male‐biased sex ratios, and that this provides an adaptive explanation for temperature‐dependent sex determination in A. muricatus.     

Female turtles from hot nests: is it duration of incubation or proportion of development at high temperatures that matters?

Summary Mean daily temperature in natural nests of freshwater turtles with temperature-dependent sex determination is known to be a poor predictor of hatchling sex ratios when nest temperatures fluctuate. To account for this, a model was developed on the assumption that females will emerge from eggs when more than half of embryonic development occurs above the threshold temperature for sex determination rather than from eggs that spend more than half their time above the threshold. The model is consistent with previously published data and in particular explains the phenomenon whereby the mean temperature that best distinguishes between male and female nests decreases with increasing variability in nest temperature. The model, if verified by controlled experiments, has important implications for our understanding of temperature-dependent sex determination in natural nests. Both mean nest temperature and hours spent above the threshold will be poor predictors of hatchling sex ratios. Studies designed to investigate latitudinal trends and inter-specific differences in the threshold temperature will need to consider latitudinal and inter-specific variation in the magnitude of diel fluctuations in nest temperature, and variation in factors influencing the magnitude of those fluctuations, such as nest depth. Furthermore, any factor that modifies the relationship between developmental rate and temperature can be expected to influence hatchling sex ratios in natural nests, especially when nest temperatures are close to the threshold.     

Determinants of reproductive success and offspring sex in a turtle with environmental sex determination

Despite the importance of maternal effects in evolution, and knowledge of links among nest site choice, timing of nesting, offspring sex, and reproductive success in animals with environmental sex determination, these attributes have not been rigorously studied in a combined and natural context. To address this need we studied the relationships between three maternal traits (nest site choice, lay date, and nest depth) and two fitness‐related attributes of offspring (hatchling sex and embryonic survival) in the riverine turtle Carettochelys insculpta, a species with temperature‐dependent sex determination, for four years. Predation and flooding were the major sources of embryonic mortality in 191 nests. Embryonic survival was influenced by both lay date and nest site choice: in one year when nesting began later than average, nests laid later and at lower elevations were destroyed by early wet season river rises. In other years early nesting precluded flood mortality. However, turtles did not nest at the highest available elevations, and a field experiment confirmed that turtles were constrained to nest at lower elevations where they could construct a nest chamber. The principal determinant of hatchling sex in 140 nests was lay date, which in turn was apparently related to the magnitude of the previous wet season(s). Clutches laid earlier in the season (a female's first clutch) produced mainly males, while later clutches (her second clutch) yielded mostly females, due to seasonal increases in air temperatures. Accordingly, later nesting produced female‐biased hatchling sex ratios in 1996, while earlier nesting resulted in sex ratios near unity in the other years. However, all‐female nests were more likely to be flooded than mixed‐sex or all‐male nests in years when nesting was late. In conclusion, we found evidence that the position of two maternal trait distributions (elevation of the nest site and lay date), associated with the reproductive strategy of C. insculpta, reflect a combination of natural selection, physical constraints, and phenotypic plasticity. © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2004, 81 , 1–16.     

Influence of incubation temperature on hatchling phenotype in reptiles

Incubation temperature influences hatchling phenotypes such as sex, size, shape, color, behavior, and locomotor performance in many reptiles, and there is growing concern that global warming might adversely affect reptile populations by altering frequencies of hatchling phenotypes. Here I overview a recent theoretical model used to predict hatchling sex of reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination. This model predicts that sex ratios will be fairly robust to moderate global warming as long as eggs experience substantial daily cyclic fluctuations in incubation temperatures so that embryos are exposed to temperatures that inhibit embryonic development for part of the day. I also review studies that examine the influence of incubation temperature on posthatch locomotion performance and growth because these are the traits that are likely to have the greatest effect on hatchling fitness. The majority of these studies used artificial constant-temperature incubation, but some have addressed fluctuating incubation temperature regimes. Although the number of studies is small, it appears that fluctuating temperatures may enhance hatchling locomotor performance. This finding should not be surprising, given that the majority of natural reptile nests are relatively shallow and therefore experience daily fluctuations in incubation temperature.     

Seasonal sex ratios and the evolution of temperature-dependent sex determination in oviparous lizards

Although the adaptive significance of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) remains a puzzle, recent models implicate a seasonal bias in offspring sex production that translates into sex-specific fitness benefits later in life. Sex-specific emergence has been linked to fitness gains in some fish, birds and reptiles, but field data supporting the occurrence of a seasonal pattern of sex ratios in oviparous lizards are lacking. We tested the hypothesis that patterns of nest site selection and seasonal temperature changes combine to inhibit the materialization of sex-biased hatching times in a population of water dragons (Intellagama lesueurii). As predicted, a seasonal increase in air and nest temperatures resulted in a sex bias by nesting date; male-producing clutches were laid 17.8 days sooner than female-producing clutches, on average. However, the seasonal ramping of nest temperatures also caused shorter relative incubation periods in the later, all-female clutches. As a consequence of this developmental ‘catch-up’, the mean hatching date for male-producing nests preceded the mean hatching date for female-producing nests by only 7.2 days. We suggest that a contracted distribution of hatching dates compared to the distribution of oviposition dates represents a general pattern for oviparous reptiles in seasonal climates, which in TSD species may largely offset the temporal disparity in nesting dates between the sexes. Although data are needed for other TSD species, such minor age differences between male and female hatchlings may not translate into fitness differences later in life, an assumption of some models for the evolution and maintenance of TSD.     

Effective heritability of targets of sex-ratio selection under environmental sex determination

Selection is expected to maintain primary sex ratios at an evolutionary equilibrium. In organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), targets of sex-ratio selection include the thermal sensitivity of the sex-determining pathway (hereafter, sex determination threshold) and nest-site choice. However, offspring sex may be canalized for nests located in thermally extreme environments; thus, genetic variance for the sex determination threshold is not expressed and is invisible to direct selection. The concept of 'effective heritability' accounts for this dependence and provides a more realistic prediction of the expected evolutionary response to selection in the wild. Past estimates of effective heritability of the sex determination threshold, which were derived from laboratory data, suggested that the potential for the sex determination threshold to evolve in the wild was extremely low. We re-evaluated original estimates of this parameter by analysing field-collected measures of nest temperatures, vegetation cover and clutch sex ratios from nests in a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta). We coupled these data with measurements of broad-sense heritability of the sex determination threshold in C. picta, using an experiment that splits clutches of eggs between a constant temperature (i.e. typical laboratory incubation) and a daily fluctuating temperature (i.e. similar to natural nests) with the same mean. We found that (i) the effective heritability of the sex determination threshold appears to have been historically underestimated and the effective heritability of nest-site choice has been overestimated and (ii) significant family-by-incubation treatment interaction exists for sex for C. picta between constant- and fluctuating-temperature regimes. Our results suggest that the thermal sensitivity of the sex-determining pathway may play a larger, more complex role in the microevolution of TSD than traditionally thought.