Tracking Construction Material over Space and Time: Prospective and Geo‐referenced Modeling of Building Stocks and Construction Material Flows

Construction material plays an increasingly important role in the environmental impacts of buildings. In order to investigate impacts of materials on a building level, we present a bottom‐up building stock model that uses three‐dimensional and geo‐referenced building data to determine volumetric information of material stocks in Swiss residential buildings. We used a probabilistic modeling approach to calculate future material flows for the individual buildings. We investigated six scenarios with different assumptions concerning per‐capita floor area, building stock turnover, and construction material. The Swiss building stock will undergo important structural changes by 2035. While this will lead to a reduced number in new constructions, material flows will increase. Total material inflow decreases by almost half while outflows double. In 2055, the total amount of material in‐ and outflows are almost equal, which represents an important opportunity to close construction material cycles. Total environmental impacts due to production and disposal of construction material remain relatively stable over time. The cumulated impact is slightly reduced for the wood‐based scenario. The scenario with more insulation material leads to slightly higher material‐related emissions. An increase in per‐capita floor area or material turnover will lead to a considerable increase in impacts. The new modeling approach overcomes the limitations of previous bottom‐up building models and allows for investigating building material flows and stocks in space and time. This supports the development of tailored strategies to reduce the material footprint and environmental impacts of buildings and settlements.     

Global Patterns and Trends for Non‐Metallic Minerals used for Construction

Despite accounting for almost 50% of global material use, nonmetallic minerals—mostly used for construction of buildings and infrastructure—are the material flow analysis (MFA) category with the highest uncertainty. The main reason for this is incomplete reporting in official national statistics because of ease of availability and the low per‐unit cost of these materials. However, the environmental burden associated with nonmetallic minerals, which include energy use for extraction and transport, land‐use change, and disposal of large amounts of construction demolition waste, call for a thorough understanding of the magnitude of nonmetallic mineral flows. Previous estimates for nonmetallic minerals have used simplistic assumptions. This study aims to increase the precision of nonmetallic mineral accounts at national and global level using consumption of bitumen, bricks, cement, and railways in combination with technical coefficients from the engineering literature to infer the actual yearly consumption of nonmetallic minerals. We estimate the extraction of nonmetallic minerals and provide uncertainty estimates for the new accounts as well as information about consumption by different sectors. Analyzing the evolution of consumption for seven world regions, we find that, in North America and Europe, the consumption of nonmetallic minerals over the past 40 years has followed the growth patterns of population, whereas for all other regions consumption has been closely related to gross domestic product (GDP). A more accurate account of global and country‐by‐country extraction of nonmetallic minerals may provide insights into supply shortages and inform waste management strategies for construction and demolition waste.     

Estimation of Copper In‐use Stocks in Nanjing,China

Copper (Cu) is an essential but supply‐restricted resource in China. Characterization of in‐use stocks can provide useful instruction for the future recycling of copper. This article attempts to estimate copper in‐use stocks in a Chinese city. To this purpose, an extensive bottom‐up estimate of copper stocks in use in Nanjing in the year 2009 was conducted. The results are a total stock estimate of 295 gigagrams (Gg) of copper or 46.9 kilograms (kg) of copper per capita for 2009. Infrastructure, equipment, and buildings contain 42.0%, 26.1%, and 28.1% of the total stock, respectively, indicating that these three categories are principal potential reservoirs of a secondary copper resource. The copper in transportation amounts to only about 3.7% of the total amount. The per capita stock was compared with similar studies carried out in other regions of the world, and the results show that the Nanjing level is significantly lower than developed countries. On the whole, our results show that electric power transmission and distribution systems, buildings, household durables, and industrial equipment are the four largest potential reservoirs of copper scrap.     

Evaluation of Modeling Approaches to Determine End‐of‐Life Flows Associated with Buildings: A Viennese Case Study on Wood and Contaminants

Dynamic material flow analysis enables the forecasting of secondary raw material potential for waste volumes in future periods, by assessing past, present, and future stocks and flows of materials in the anthroposphere. Analyses of waste streams of buildings stocks are uncertain with respect to data and model structure. Wood construction in Viennese buildings serve as a case study to compare different modeling approaches for determining end‐of‐life (EoL) wood and corresponding contaminant flows (lead, chlorine, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). A delayed input and a leaching stock modeling approach are used to determine wood stocks and flows from 1950 until 2100. Cross‐checking with independent estimates and sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate the results’ plausibility. In the situation of the given data in the present case study, the delay approach is a better choice for historical observations of EoL wood and for analyses at a substance level. It has some major drawbacks for future predictions at the goods level, though, as the durability of a large number of historical buildings with considerably higher wood content is not reflected in the model. The wood content parameter differs strongly for the building periods and has therefore the highest influence on the results. Based on this knowledge, general recommendations can be derived for analyses on waste flows of buildings at a goods and substance level.     

Anthropogenic Carbon Stock Dynamics of Pulp and Paper Products in Germany

Carbon‐based materials (CBMs) for energetic and material purposes combine biogenic and anthropogenic carbon cycles. In the latter, numerous manufactured products with various in‐use lifespans accumulate as anthropogenic carbon stocks. Understanding the behavior of these stocks is an important requirement to estimate not only future waste amounts, source for secondary raw materials, but also the impacts and effects in carbon emissions and carbon management. Previous models have estimated material stock changes; however, a lack of research in carbon stocks is perceived. Moreover, studies follow in‐use lifespan estimation approaches, such as decay functions, which do not coincide with observed consumption and waste treatment patterns. In the first part of this article, we present a carbon stock‐flow model to analyze inter‐relationships between carbon flows and stocks from raw materials to waste treatment processes considering a consumer perspective, where the dynamics of anthropogenic carbon stocks are completely described. In the second part, we study the pulp and paper industry in Germany under a scenario approach to analyze the behavior, development, and impacts of paper stocks and flows between 2010 and 2040. The model provided coherent results, with industrial data estimating 33.9 million metric tons in 2010 in paper stocks, equivalent to 410 kilograms per person. Consumption per capita and in‐use lifespan of products were identified as the most significant variables in carbon stock building. Model simulations show a sustained growth in stocks for the next 30 years, with increase in waste and carbon emissions. But in combination with recycling and reuse mechanisms and consumption patterns, environmental impacts are reduced.     

Transferability of Material Composition Indicators for Residential Buildings: A Conceptual Approach Based on a German‐Japanese Comparison

Most anthropogenic material stocks and flows are associated with the building sector. Several recent studies have developed material composition indicators (MCIs) suitable for calculating material stocks and flows of the building sector using bottom‐up approaches, which hold great potential to provide information to support resource efficiency policies. A major limitation is the lack of country‐specific MCIs. This study aims to introduce a concept for a better transferability of MCI across different contexts by proposing requirements for defining MCIs and to discuss options and limits of the transferability. We take existing MCIs for residential buildings in Germany and Japan as case studies and make them comparable by applying harmonization methods. Based on that, similarities and differences are systematically identified and discussed, considering their socioeconomic, cultural, technical, and environmental factors. Our results indicate significant limitations to the transferability of MCIs for detached houses, while bigger apartment complexes show greater homogeneity despite the very different environments in which they are constructed. This indicates that while it is possible to assume foreign MCIs as plausible for large constructions, local coefficients need to be estimated for smaller single‐family homes.     

Estimating Materials Stocked by Land‐Use Type in Historic Urban Buildings Using Spatio‐Temporal Analytical Tools

The construction industry is an important contributor to urban economic development and consumes large volumes of building material that are stocked in cities over long periods. Those stocked spaces store valuable materials that may be available for recovery in the future. Thus quantifying the urban building stock is important for managing construction materials across the building life cycle. This article develops a new approach to urban building material stock analysis (MSA) using land‐use heuristics. Our objective is to characterize buildings to understand materials stocked in place by: (1) developing, validating, and testing a new method for characterizing building stock by land‐use type and (2) quantifying building stock and determining material fractions. We conduct a spatial MSA to quantify materials within a 2.6‐square‐kilometer section of Philadelphia from 2004 to 2012. Data were collected for buildings classified by land‐use type from many sources to create maps of material stock and spatial material intensity. In the spatial MSA, the land‐use type that returned the largest footprint (by percentage) and greatest (number) of buildings were civic/institutional (42%; 147) and residential (23%; 275), respectively. The model was validated for total floor space and the absolute overall error (n = 46; 20%) in 2004 and (n = 47; 24%) in 2012. Typically, commercial and residential land‐use types returned the lowest overall error and weighted error. We present a promising alternative method for characterizing buildings in urban MSA that leverages multiple tools (geographical information systems [GIS], design codes, and building models) and test the method in historic Philadelphia.     

Spatial analysis of urban material stock with clustering algorithms: A Northern European case study

A large share of construction material stock (MS) accumulates in urban built environments. To attain a more sustainable use of resources, knowledge about the spatial distribution of urban MS is needed. In this article, an innovative spatial analysis approach to urban MS is proposed. Within this scope, MS indicators are defined at neighborhood level and clustered with k‐mean algorithms. The MS is estimated bottom‐up with (a) material‐intensity coefficients and (b) spatial data for three built environment components: buildings, road transportation, and pipes, using seven material categories. The city of Gothenburg, Sweden is used as a case study. Moreover, being the first case study in Northern Europe, the results are explored through various aspects (material composition, age distribution, material density), and, finally, contrasted on a per capita basis with other studies worldwide. The stock is estimated at circa 84 million metric tons. Buildings account for 73% of the stock, road transport 26%, and pipes 1%. Mineral‐binding materials take the largest share of the stock, followed by aggregates, brick, asphalt, steel, and wood. Per capita, the MS is estimated at 153 metric tons; 62 metric tons are residential, which, in an international context, is a medium estimate. Denser neighborhoods with a mix of nonresidential and residential buildings have a lower proportion of MS in roads and pipes than low‐density single‐family residential neighborhoods. Furthermore, single‐family residential neighborhoods cluster in mixed‐age classes and show the largest content of wood. Multifamily buildings cluster in three distinct age classes, and each represent a specific material composition of brick, mineral binding, and steel. Future work should focus on megacities and contrasting multiple urban areas and, methodologically, should concentrate on algorithms, MS indicators, and spatial divisions of urban stock.     

A Material Flow Accounting Case Study of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area using the Urban Metabolism Analyst Model

This article describes a new methodological framework to account for urban material flows and stocks, using material flow accounting (MFA) as the underlying method. The proposed model, urban metabolism analyst (UMAn), bridges seven major gaps in previous urban metabolism studies: lack of a unified methodology; lack of material flows data at the urban level; limited categorizations of material types; limited results about material flows as they are related to economic activities; limited understanding of the origin and destination of flows; lack of understanding about the dynamics of added stock; and lack of knowledge about the magnitude of the flow of materials that are imported and then, to a great extent, exported. To explore and validate the UMAn model, a case study of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area was used. An annual time series of material flows from 2003 to 2009 is disaggregated by the model into 28 material types, 55 economic activity categories, and 18 municipalities. Additionally, an annual projection of the obsolescence of materials for 2010–2050 was performed. The results of the case study validate the proposed methodology, which broadens the contribution of existing urban MFA studies and presents pioneering information in the field of urban metabolism. In particular, the model associates material flows with economic activities and their spatial location within the urban area.     

Dynamic Modeling of In‐Use Cement Stocks in the United States

A dynamic substance‐flow model is developed to characterize the stocks and flows of cement utilized during the 20th century in the United States, using the generic cement life cycle as a systems boundary. The motivation for estimating historical inventories of cement stocks and flows is to provide accurate estimates of contemporary cement in‐use stocks in U.S. infrastructure and future discards to relevant stakeholders in U.S. infrastructure, such as the federal and state highway administrators, departments of transportation, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Such information will assist in planning future rehabilitation projects and better life cycle management of infrastructure systems. In the present policy environment of climate negotiations, estimates of in‐use cement infrastructure can provide insights about to what extent built environment can act as a carbon sink over its lifetime. The rate of addition of new stock, its composition, and the repair of existing stock are key determinants of infrastructure sustainability. Based upon a probability of failure approach, a dynamic stock and flow model was developed utilizing three statistical lifetime distributions—Weibull, gamma, and lognormal—for each cement end‐use. The model‐derived estimate of the “in‐use” cement stocks in the United States is in the range of 4.2 to 4.4 billion metric tons (gigatonnes, Gt). This indicates that 82% to 87% of cement utilized during the last century is still in use. On a per capita basis, this is equivalent to 14.3 to 15.0 tonnes of in‐use cement stock per person. The in‐use cement stock per capita has doubled over the last 50 years, although the rate of growth has slowed.     

The weight of islands: Leveraging Grenada's material stocks to adapt to climate change

The building stock consumes large amounts of resources for maintenance and expansion which is only exacerbated by disaster events where large‐scale reconstruction must occur quickly. Recent research has shown the potential for application of material stock (MS) accounts for informing disaster risk planning. In this research, we present a methodological approach to analyze the vulnerability of the material stock in buildings to extreme weather events and sea‐level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The main island of Grenada, a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) in the Caribbean region, was used as a case study. A bottom‐up approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) is used to calculate the total MS of aggregate, timber, concrete, and steel in buildings. The total MS in buildings in 2014 was calculated to be 11.9 million tonnes (Mt), which is equivalent to 112 tonnes per capita. Material gross addition to stock (GAS) between 1993 to 2009 was 6.8 Mt and the average value over the time period was 4.0 tonnes per capita per year. In the year following Hurricane Ivan (2004), the per capita GAS for timber increased by 172%, while for other metals, GAS spiked by 103% (compared to average growth rates of 11% and 8%, respectively, between 1993 and 2009). We also ran a future “Ivan‐II” scenario and estimated a hypothetical loss of between 135 and 216 kilotonnes (kt) of timber from the building stock. The potential impact of SLR is also assessed, with an estimated 1.6 Mt of building material stock exposed under a 2‐m scenario. We argue that spatial material stock accounts have an important application in planning for resilience and provide indication of the link between natural disaster recovery and resource use patterns.     

Estimates of Lost Material Stock of Buildings and Roads Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

This article describes research conducted for the Japanese government in the wake of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck eastern Japan on March 11, 2011. In this study, material stock analysis (MSA) is used to examine the losses of building and infrastructure materials after this disaster. Estimates of the magnitude of material stock that has lost its social function as a result of a disaster can indicate the quantities required for reconstruction, help garner a better understanding of the volumes of waste flows generated by that disaster, and also help in the course of policy deliberations in the recovery of disaster‐stricken areas. Calculations of the lost building and road materials in the five prefectures most affected were undertaken. Analysis in this study is based on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) databases and statistics; it aims to (1) describe in spatial terms what construction materials were lost, (2) estimate the amount of infrastructure material needed to rehabilitate disaster areas, and (3) indicate the amount of lost material stock that should be taken into consideration during government policy deliberations. Our analysis concludes that the material stock losses of buildings and road infrastructure are 31.8  and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. This research approach and the use of spatial MSA can be useful for urban planners and may also convey more appropriate information about disposal based on the work of municipalities in disaster‐afflicted areas.     

Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis

In this paper, we develop a dynamic stock model and scenario analysis involving a bottom‐up approach to analyze copper demand in China from 2005 to 2050 based on government and related sectoral policies. The results show that in the short‐term, China's copper industry cannot achieve a completely circular economy without additional measures. Aggregate and per capita copper demand are both set to increase substantially, especially in infrastructure, transportation, and buildings. Between 2016 and 2050, total copper demand will increase almost threefold. Copper use in buildings will stabilize before 2050, but the copper stock in infrastructure and transportation will not yet have reached saturation in 2050. The continuous growth of copper stock implies that secondary copper will be able to cover just over 50% of demand in 2050, at best, even with an assumed recycling rate of 90%. Finally, future copper demand depends largely on the lifetime of applications. There is therefore an urgent need to prolong the service life of end‐use products to reduce the amount of materials used, especially in large‐scale applications in buildings and infrastructure.     

Unified Materials Information System (UMIS): An Integrated Material Stocks and Flows Data Structure

Modern society depends on the use of many diverse materials. Effectively managing these materials is becoming increasingly important and complex, from the analysis of supply chains, to quantifying their environmental impacts, to understanding future resource availability. Material stocks and flows data enable such analyses, but currently exist mainly as discrete packages, with highly varied type, scope, and structure. These factors constitute a powerful barrier to holistic integration and thus universal analysis of existing and yet to be published material stocks and flows data. We present the Unified Materials Information System (UMIS) to overcome this barrier by enabling material stocks and flows data to be comprehensively integrated across space, time, materials, and data type independent of their disaggregation, without loss of information, and avoiding double counting. UMIS can therefore be applied to structure diverse material stocks and flows data and their metadata across material systems analysis methods such as material flow analysis (MFA), input‐output analysis, and life cycle assessment. UMIS uniquely labels and visualizes processes and flows in UMIS diagrams; therefore, material stocks and flows data visualized in UMIS diagrams can be individually referenced in databases and computational models. Applications of UMIS to restructure existing material stocks and flows data represented by block flow diagrams, system dynamics diagrams, Sankey diagrams, matrices, and derived using the economy‐wide MFA classification system are presented to exemplify use. UMIS advances the capabilities with which complex quantitative material systems analysis, archiving, and computation of material stocks and flows data can be performed.     

The use of steel in the United Kingdom's transport sector: A stock–flow–service nexus case study

Energy and material flows and material stocks are key requirements for the supply of goods and services, which in turn support societal development. However, most resource accounting methods restrict the analysis to resource flows, which fails to acknowledge the increasing role of in‐use stocks in service provision. Using the UK transport sector as a case study, we undertook a material flow analysis through the lens of the stock–flow–service (SFS) nexus. We used the latter to identify how steel consumption and accumulation in vehicles contributed to passenger mobility between 1960 and 2015. Our results show that the efficiency of the steel stock contained in cars and motorcycles decreased from 37.5 to 28.0 passenger‐km (pkm)/kg‐year. The steel service for buses decreased from 63.6 to 32.1 pkm/kg‐year, while that of the national railway increased from 23.8 to 70.3 pkm/kg‐year steel. London Underground steel stock–service efficiency improved from 31.5 to 57.0 pkm/kg‐year steel. The annual fraction of flows that maintained the steel stock varied according to vehicle category and was between 3.4% and 8.2%. In terms of the stock expansion rate, the greatest change (on average, an annual increase of 3%) was that of “cars and motorcycles.” This reflects the demographic transitions and the growing consumer demand for car‐based mobility. We discussed how the SFS nexus contributes to a more comprehensive form of resource accounting and reflect upon some of its limitations and how they might be addressed.     

Measuring Progress towards a Circular Economy: A Monitoring Framework for Economy‐wide Material Loop Closing in the EU28

The concept of a circular economy (CE) is gaining increasing attention from policy makers, industry, and academia. There is a rapidly evolving debate on definitions, limitations, the contribution to a wider sustainability agenda, and a need for indicators to assess the effectiveness of circular economy measures at larger scales. Herein, we present a framework for a comprehensive and economy‐wide biophysical assessment of a CE, utilizing and systematically linking official statistics on resource extraction and use and waste flows in a mass‐balanced approach. This framework builds on the widely applied framework of economy‐wide material flow accounting and expands it by integrating waste flows, recycling, and downcycled materials. We propose a comprehensive set of indicators that measure the scale and circularity of total material and waste flows and their socioeconomic and ecological loop closing. We applied this framework in the context of monitoring efforts for a CE in the European Union (EU28) for the year 2014. We found that 7.4 gigatons (Gt) of materials were processed in the EU and only 0.71 Gt of them were secondary materials. The derived input socioeconomic cycling rate of materials was therefore 9.6%. Further, of the 4.8 Gt of interim output flows, 14.8% were recycled or downcycled. Based on these findings and our first efforts in assessing sensitivity of the framework, a number of improvements are deemed necessary: improved reporting of wastes, explicit modeling of societal in‐use stocks, introduction of criteria for ecological cycling, and disaggregated mass‐based indicators to evaluate environmental impacts of different materials and circularity initiatives. This article met the requirements for a gold – gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .     

Dynamic Models of Fixed Capital Stocks and Their Application in Industrial Ecology

Industrial assets or fixed capital stocks are at the core of the transition to a low‐carbon economy. They represent substantial accumulations of capital, bulk materials, and critical metals. Their lifetime determines the potential for material recycling and how fast they can be replaced by new, more efficient facilities. Their efficiency determines the coupling between useful output and energy and material throughput. A sound understanding of the economic and physical properties of fixed capital stocks is essential to anticipating the long‐term environmental and economic consequences of the new energy future. We identify substantial overlap in the way stocks are modeled in national accounting, dynamic material flow analysis, dynamic input‐output (I/O) analysis, and life cycle assessment (LCA) and we merge these concepts into a common framework for modeling fixed capital stocks. We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework for simultaneous accounting of capital and material stocks and for consequential LCA. We apply the framework to design a demand‐driven dynamic I/O model with dynamic capital stocks, and we synthesize both the marginal and attributional matrix of technical coefficients (A‐matrix) from detailed process inventories of fixed assets of different age cohorts and technologies. The stock modeling framework allows researchers to identify and exploit synergies between different model families under the umbrella of socioeconomic metabolism.     

Accounting for carbon flows into and from (bio)plastic in a national climate inventory

Despite the time-dependent behavior of carbon stored in plastic materials, literature assessing carbon flows into and from plastic typically applies a static approach. To better understand the climate impacts of such storage, this study explores how carbon stored in plastics can contribute over time to the national climate inventory with various emphasis on recycling. This is accomplished by implementing material stock change estimations for carbon in plastic materials that follow first-order decay and include impacts from recycling rates in the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System model generator for Sweden (TIMES-Sweden). Thereafter, three approaches to how carbon released from the plastic material stock is accounted for in the national climate inventory were applied to determine how each approach affects resulting emission and net-zero pathways in different recycling rate scenarios. An accounting approach that follows the first-order decay pattern of material stocks was found to be important for capturing the impacts of recycling and for neither over- nor underestimating the emission impact from carbon stored in plastics. Accounting for carbon stored in plastics may provide important incentives for producing renewable plastics and reducing dependence on carbon removal technologies. Because of its synergies with recycling, the carbon storage potential of plastic products is well worth recognizing and promoting in a policy setting that aims for circularity. For Sweden, this reduces the need for bioenergy carbon capture and storage and makes more biomass-based carbon and electricity available for use elsewhere in the energy system.     

Material and Energy Flows and Environmental Impacts of the Internet in Switzerland

The Internet leads to material and energy consumption as well as various environmental impacts on both the regional and global scale. Yet, assessments of the Internet's energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions are still rare, and assessments of material flows and further environmental impacts are virtually non‐existent. This article investigates material flows, the direct energy consumption during the use phase, as well as environmental impacts linked to the service, “Internet in Switzerland.” In our model, the service, Internet in Switzerland, is divided into various Internet participant categories. All devices used to access or provide Internet services are merged in a limited number of equipment families and, as such, included in an inventory of the existing infrastructure (stock). Based on this inventory, a material flow analysis (MFA) is performed, which includes the current stock as well as flows resulting from growth and disposal. The direct energy consumption for the operation of the infrastructure is quantified. Environmental impacts are calculated with a life cycle assessment approach, using the ecoinvent database and the software, SimaPro, applying four different methods. The MFA results in a 2009 stock of 98,100 tonnes. Approximately 4,130 gigawatt hours per year, or 7% of the total Swiss electricity consumption, were used in 2009 to operate the Swiss infrastructure. The environmental impacts caused during the production and use phases vary significantly depending on the assessment method chosen. The disposal phase had mainly positive impacts as a result of material recovery.     

The Growth of Urban Building Stock: Unintended Lock‐in and Embedded Environmental Effects

Building stocks constitute enduring components of urban infrastructure systems, but little research exists on their residence time or changing environmental impacts. Using Los Angeles County, California, as a case study, a framework is developed for assessing the changes of building stocks in cities (i.e., a generalizable framework for estimating the construction and deconstruction rates), the residence time of buildings and their materials, and the associated embedded environmental impacts. In Los Angeles, previous land‐use decisions prove not easily reversible, and past building stock investments may continue to constrain the energy performance of buildings. The average age of the building stock has increased steadily since 1920 and more rapidly after the post–World War II construction surge in the 1950s. Buildings will likely endure for 60 years or longer, making this infrastructure a quasi‐permanent investment. The long residence time, combined with the physical limitations on outward growth, suggest that the Los Angeles building stock is unlikely to have substantial spatial expansion in the future. The construction of buildings requires a continuous investment in material, monetary, and energetic resources, resulting in environmental impacts. The long residence time of structures implies a commitment to use and maintain the infrastructure, potentially creating barriers to an urban area's ability to improve energy efficiency. The immotility of buildings, coupled with future environmental goals, indicates that urban areas will be best positioned by instituting strategies that ensure reductions in life cycle (construction, use, and demolition) environmental impacts.