Predation on wader nests in Europe

The population declines of waders in Europe are widely considered to have resulted from habitat loss and degradation due to agricultural changes. However, recent empirical evidence suggests that levels of predation on wader nests are unsustainably high in many cases, even in some situations where breeding habitat is otherwise favourable. We review the published and 'grey' literature on nest predation on waders in Europe and quantify the relative importance of the major predators. Nest cameras offer the least biased method of identifying and quantifying nest predators. A small number of camera studies, in combination with others utilizing nest temperature loggers, indicate that nocturnal/mammalian predators make the largest contribution to wader nest predation. More than half of site-years or studies reviewed reported clutch failure rates of over 50% attributable to predation alone, a rate that is likely to be associated with declining populations, although parameters such as chick and adult survival will also affect population trends. Correlates of wader nest predation are documented, with time of season, field type and management, distance to habitat/field edge, wader nest density, and abundance of mammalian predators being most consistently identified. Future directions of research into wader productivity are discussed, and we suggest that studies quantify additional life-history parameters such as chick survival, as well as examining the predator community, wherever possible.     

Nesting Success in Crimson Finches: Chance or Choice?

In avian systems, nest predation is one of the most significant influences on reproductive success. Selection for mechanisms and behaviours to minimise predation rates should be favoured. To avoid predation, breeding birds can often deter predators through active nest defence or by modifying behaviours around the nest (e.g. reducing feeding rates and vocalisations). Birds might also benefit from concealing nests or placing them in inaccessible locations. The relative importance of these strategies (behaviour vs. site selection) can be difficult to disentangle and may differ according to life history. Tropical birds are thought to experience higher rates of predation than temperate birds and invest less energy in nest defence. We monitored a population of crimson finches (Neochmia phaeton), in the Australian tropics, over two breeding seasons. We found no relationship between adult nest defence behaviour (towards a model reptile predator) and the likelihood of nest success. However, nest success was strongly related to the visibility of the nest and the structure of the vegetation. We found no evidence that adult nest building decisions were influenced by predation risk; individuals that re‐nested after a predation event did not build their nest in a more concealed location. Therefore, predator avoidance, and hence nest success, appears to be largely due to chance rather than due to the behaviour of the birds or their choice of nesting sites. To escape high predation pressures, multiple nesting attempts both within and between seasons may be necessary to increase reproductive success. Alternatively, birds may be limited in their nest‐site options; that is, high‐quality individuals dominate quality nest sites.     

Nest survival in year‐round breeding tropical red‐capped larks Calandrella cinerea increases with higher nest abundance but decreases with higher invertebrate availability and rainfall

Nest survival is critical to breeding in birds and plays an important role in life‐history evolution and population dynamics. Studies evaluating the proximate factors involved in explaining nest survival and the resulting temporal patterns are biased in favor of temperate regions. Yet, such studies are especially pertinent to the tropics, where nest predation rates are typically high and environmental conditions often allow for year‐round breeding. To tease apart the effects of calendar month and year, population‐level breeding activity and environmental conditions, we studied nest survival over a 64‐month period in equatorial, year‐round breeding red‐capped larks Calandrella cinerea in Kenya. We show that daily nest survival rates varied with time, but not in a predictable seasonal fashion among months or consistently among years. We found negative influences of flying invertebrate biomass and rain on nest survival and higher survival of nests when nests were more abundant, which suggests that nest predation resulted from incidental predation. Although an increase in nest predation is often attributed to an increase in nest predators, we suggest that in our study, it may be caused by altered predator activity resulting from increased activity of the primary prey, invertebrates, rather than activity of the red‐capped larks. Our results emphasize the need to conduct more studies in Afro‐tropical regions because proximate mechanisms explaining nest predation can be different in the unpredictable and highly variable environments of the tropics compared with the relatively predictable seasonal changes found in temperate regions. Such studies will aid in better understanding of the environmental influences on life‐history variation and population dynamics in birds.     

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.     

Changing patterns of nest predation and predator communities along a tropical elevation gradient

Tropical montane communities host the world's highest beta diversity of birds, a phenomenon usually attributed to community turnover caused by changes in biotic and abiotic factors along elevation gradients. Yet, empirical data on most biotic factors are lacking. Nest predation is thought to be especially important because it appears to be common and can change selective pressures underlying life history traits, which can alter competitive interactions. We monitored 2538 nests, 338 of which had known nest predators, to evaluate if nest predation changes along a tropical elevational gradient. We found that nest predation decreased with elevation, reflecting the loss of lowland predators that do not tolerate colder climates. We found different “super” nest predators at each elevation that accounted for a high percentage of events, suggesting that selection pressures exerted by nest predator communities may be less diffuse than has been hypothesized, at least for birds nesting in the understory.     

Predation as a landscape effect: the trading off by prey species between predation risks and protection benefits

1. Predators impose costs on their prey but may also provide benefits such as protection against other (e.g. nest) predators. The optimal breeding location in relation to the distance from a nesting raptor varies so as to minimize the sum of costs of adult and nest predation. We provide a conceptual model to account for variation in the relative predation risks and derive qualitative predictions for how different prey species should respond to the distance from goshawk Accipiter gentilis nests. 2. We test the model predictions using a comprehensive collection of data from northern Finland and central Norway. First, we carried out a series of experiments with artificial bird nests to test if goshawks may provide protection against nest predation. Second, we conducted standard bird censuses and nest-box experiments to detect how the density or territory occupancy of several prey species varies with distance from the nearest goshawk nest. 3. Nest predation rate increased with distance from goshawk nest indicating that goshawks may provide protection for birds' nests against nest predation. Abundance (or probability of presence) of the main prey species of goshawks peaked at intermediate distances from goshawk nests, reflecting the trade-off. The abundance of small songbird species decreased with distance from goshawk nests. The goshawk poses little risk to small songbirds and they may benefit from goshawk proximity in protection against nest predation. Finally, no pattern with distance in pied flycatcher territory (nest box) occupation rate or the onset of egg-laying was detected. This is expected, as flycatchers neither suffer from marked nest predation risk nor are favoured goshawk prey. 4. Our results suggest that territory location in relation to the nest of a predator is a trade-off situation where adult birds weigh the risk of themselves being predated against the benefits accrued from increased nest survival. Prey species appear able to detect and measure alternative predation risks, and respond adaptively. From the prey perspective, the landscape is a mosaic of habitat patches the quality of which varies according to structural and floristic features, but also to the spatial distribution of predators.     

Nesting behavior and breeding success of Hoatzins

ABSTRACT.   Hoatzins ( Opisthocomus hoazin ) are the only member of the family Opisthocomidae and are found only in forests in the Amazon and Orinoco river basin of South America. Although locally common in riparian habitats, information about their natural history is based almost exclusively on observations from gallery forests in the "llanos" (savannahs) of Venezuela. We investigated the nesting activities of Hoatzins in a primary rainforest in Amazonian Ecuador from 1995 to 2000. At our study site, Hoatzins live and breed in the inundated forests that surround lakes and river channels. Egg laying occurred from February to July and from September to November, but always peaked in April, May, and June. The mean clutch size was 2.4 ± 1.1 eggs ( N = 291; range = 1–7), but 51% of all clutches contained two eggs. The mean duration of the incubation period was 32 ± 1.5 d ( N = 20) and, overall, 17% of Hoatzin nests fledged at least one young. The main cause of nest failure was predation, with birds and snakes being the most frequent predators. Hoatzin reproduction was closely linked to the rainy season, and such timing may be influenced by increased food availability (high water levels cause leaf fall and the subsequent growth of new leaves coincides with the beginning of the feeding period of the young) and reduced risk of nest predation by mammalian predators when water levels are high. Our results indicate that the breeding biology of Hoatzins in tropical rainforest habitat, including small clutch sizes and low annual reproductive success, is similar to that of tropical passerines and provides further support for the existence of typical life history characteristics for tropical birds.     

Causes of reduced clutch size in a tidal marsh endemic

We tested three hypotheses of clutch size variation in two subspecies of the swamp sparrow (Melospiza georgiana georgiana and M. g. nigrescens). Swamp sparrows follow the pattern of other estuarine endemics, where clutch size is smaller among tidal salt marsh populations (M. g. nigrescens) than their closest inland relatives (M. g. georgiana). Our results support predation risk and temperature, but not adult survival, as explanations of this pattern in swamp sparrows. Coastal nests were twice as likely to fail as inland nests, and parental activity around the nest site was positively related to clutch size at both sites. When brood size was controlled for, coastal adults visited nests less often and females vocalized less frequently during visits than inland birds, which may decrease nest detectability to predators. Coastal parents waited longer than inland birds to feed offspring in the presence of a model nest predator, but there was no difference in their response to models of predators of adults, as would be expected if coastal birds possessed increased longevity. Additionally, coastal females laid more eggs than inland females over a single season, following a within-season bet-hedging strategy rather than reducing within-season investment. Coastal territories experienced ambient air temperatures above the physiological zero of egg development more often, and higher temperatures during laying correlated with smaller clutches and increased egg inviability among coastal birds. Similar effects were not seen among inland nests, where laying temperatures were generally below physiological zero. Both subspecies showed an increase in hatching asynchrony and a decrease in apparent incubation length under high temperatures. Coastal individuals, however, showed less hatching asynchrony overall despite higher temperatures. Both air temperatures during laying and predation risk could potentially explain reduced clutch size in not only coastal plain swamp sparrows, but also other tidal marsh endemics.     

Habitat-specific clutch size and cost of incubation in eiders reconsidered

The energetic incubation constraint hypothesis (EICH) for clutch size states that birds breeding in poor habitat may free up resources for future reproduction by laying a smaller clutch. The eider (Somateria mollissima) is considered a candidate for supporting this hypothesis. Clutch size is smaller in exposed nests, presumably because of faster heat loss and higher incubation cost, and, hence, smaller optimal clutch size. However, an alternative explanation is partial predation: the first egg(s) are left unattended and vulnerable to predation, which may disproportionately affect exposed nests, so clutch size may be underestimated. We experimentally investigated whether predation on first-laid eggs in eiders depends on nest cover. We then re-evaluated how nesting habitat affects clutch size and incubation costs based on long-term data, accounting for confounding effects between habitat and individual quality. We also experimentally assessed adult survival costs of nesting in sheltered nests. The risk of egg predation in experimental nests decreased with cover. Confounding between individual and habitat quality is unlikely, as clutch size was also smaller in open nests within individuals, and early and late breeders had similar nest cover characteristics. A trade-off between clutch and female safety may explain nest cover variation, as the risk of female capture by us, mimicking predation on adults, increased with nest cover. Nest habitat had no effect on female hatching weight or weight loss, while lower temperature during incubation had an unanticipated positive relationship with hatching weight. There were no indications of elevated costs of incubating larger clutches, while clutch size and colony size were positively correlated, a pattern not predicted by the ‘energetic incubation constraint’ hypothesis. Differential partial clutch predation thus offers the more parsimonious explanation for clutch size variation among habitats in eiders, highlighting the need for caution when analysing fecundity and associated life-history parameters when habitat-specific rates of clutch predation occur.     

An ecological paradox: More woodland predators and less artificial nest predation in landscapes colonized by noisy miners

Many passerine bird populations, particularly those that have open‐cup nests, are in decline in agricultural landscapes. Current theory suggests that an increase in habitat generalist predators in response to landscape change is partially responsible for these declines. However, empirical tests have failed to reach a consensus on how and through what mechanisms landscape change affects nest predation. We tested one hypothesis, the Additive Predation Model, with an artificial nest experiment in fragmented landscapes in southern Queensland, Australia. We employed structural equation modelling of the influence of the relative density of woodland and habitat generalist predators and landscape features at the nest, site, patch and landscape scales on the probability of nest predation. We found little support for the Additive Predation Model, with no significant influence of the density of woodland predators on the probability of nest predation, although landscape features at different spatial scales were important. Within woodlands fragmented by agriculture in eastern Australia, the presence of noisy miner colonies appears to influence ecological processes important for nest predation such that the Additive Predation Model does not hold. In the absence of colonies of the aggressive native bird, the noisy miner, the influence of woodland predators on the risk of artificial nest predation was low compared with that of habitat generalist predators. Outside noisy miner colonies, we found significant edge effects with greater predation rates for artificial nests within woodland patches located closer to the agricultural matrix. Furthermore, the density of habitat generalist predators increased with the extent of irrigated land‐use, suggesting that in the absence of noisy miner colonies, nest predation increases with land‐use intensity at the landscape scale.     

Predators at bird nests in a northern hardwood forest in New Hampshire

ABSTRACT.   Nest predation is the primary cause of nest failure in most passerine birds, and increases in nest predation associated with anthropogenic habitat disturbance are invoked as explanations for population declines of some bird species. In most cases, however, the identity of the nest predators is not known with certainty. We monitored active bird nests with infrared time-lapse video cameras to determine which nest predators were responsible for depredating bird nests in northern New Hampshire. We monitored 64 nests of 11 bird species during three breeding seasons, and identified seven species of predators during 14 predation events. In addition, we recorded two instances of birds defending nests from predators and, in both cases, these nests were ultimately lost to predation. These results contrast with other studies in terms of the relatively high proportion of nests depredated by raptors and mice, as well as the absence of any predation by snakes. The diverse suite of predators in this and other studies is likely to confound our understanding of patterns of nest predation relative to fragmentation and habitat structure.     

Testing sources of variation in nestling‐stage nest success of Florida Scrub‐Jays in suburban and wildland habitats

Human modification of habitats can reduce reproductive success by providing novel cues to which birds may respond with behaviors that are actually maladaptive in those environments. Ad libitum human‐provided foods may provide the perception that urban habitats are food‐rich even as natural food availability decreases. Similarly, human activity may increase the perception that predation risk is high even as natural predators may decrease in abundance. In response, birds may reduce parental care with a subsequent cost to successful reproduction. Florida Scrub‐Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) in suburban areas have lower nest success during the nestling period than do wildland jays, possibly the result of such maladaptive responses, but maybe because of ecological differences with wildlands. We manipulated adult perception of predation risk and the availability of nestling foods in suburban and wildland areas to determine if these factors influenced parental care and nestling begging, and if the behavioral responses of adults influence nest survival during the nestling stage. Experimentally increasing perception of predation risk reduced parental care by both suburban and wildland females, but did not influence care by males. Increasing food availability, but not predation risk, had little influence on parental care, but resulted in decreased nestling begging rates and an increase in the frequency (pitch) of begging calls in both habitats. However, neither parental care nor food availability influenced nest survival during the nestling stage. Instead, the presence of helpers was the most important variable in nest survival analyses, suggesting that habitat‐specific differences in nest survival during the nestling stage were not simply the result of maladaptive parental behavior or shortage of nestling food resources in the suburban habitat. The lack of helpers combined with ecological differences, such as the abundance of nest predators, may be why fewer nests of Florida Scrub‐Jays survive during this stage in suburban areas.     

Identifying predators clarifies predictors of nest success in a temperate passerine

1.  Nest predation negatively affects most avian populations. Studies of nest predation usually group all nest failures when attempting to determine temporal and parental activities, habitat or landscape predictors of success. Often these studies find few significant predictors and interpret patterns as essentially random.
2.  Relatively little is known about the importance of individual predator species or groups on observed patterns of nest success, and how the ecology of these predators may influence patterns of success and failure.
3.  In 2006 and 2007, time-lapse, infrared video systems were deployed at nests of Swainson's warblers ( Limnothlypis swainsonii Audubon) in east-central Arkansas to identify dominant nest predators and determine whether factors predicting predation differed among these predators.
4.  Analysis of pooled data yielded few predictors of predation risk, whereas separate analyses for the three major predator groups revealed clear, but often conflicting, patterns.
5.  Predation by ratsnakes ( Elaphe obsoleta ) and raptors was more common during the nestling period, whereas predation by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) occurred more during incubation. Additionally, the risk of predation by raptors and cowbirds decreased throughout the breeding season, whereas ratsnake predation risk increased.
6.  Contrary to expectations, predation by ratsnakes and cowbirds was more common far from edges, whereas raptor predation was more common close to agricultural edges.
7.  Collectively, our results suggest that associating specific predators with the nests they prey on is necessary to understand underlying mechanisms.     

Predator-induced plasticity in nest visitation rates in the Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus)

Bird nestlings may be at risk not only from starvation but alsofrom predators attracted to the nest by parental feeding visits.Hence, parents could trade reduced visitation rates for a lowerpredation risk. Here, through field data and an experiment,we show plasticity in daily patterns of nest visitation in theSiberian jay, Perisoreus infaustus, in response to predatoractivity. In high-risk territories, jay parents avoided goingto the nest at certain times of the day and compensated by allocatingmore feeding effort to periods when predators were less active.Such modifications in provisioning routines allowed parentsin high-risk habitat to significantly lower the risk of providingvisitation cues to visually oriented corvid nest predators.These results indicate that some birds modify their daily nestvisitation patterns as a fourth mechanism to reduce predator-attractingnest visits in addition to the clutch size reduction, maximizationof food load-sizes, and prevention of allofeeding suggestedby Skutch.     

Provision of supplementary food for wild birds may increase the risk of local nest predation

In countries such as the UK, USA and Australia, approximately half of all households provide supplementary food for wild birds, making this the public's most common form of active engagement with nature. Year‐round supplementary feeding is currently encouraged by major conservation charities in the UK as it is thought to be of benefit to bird conservation. However, little is understood about how the provision of supplementary food affects the behaviour and ecology of target and non‐target species. Given the scale of supplementary feeding, any negative effects may have important implications for conservation. Potential nest predators are abundant in urban areas and some species frequently visit supplementary feeding stations. We assess whether providing supplementary food affects the likelihood of nest predation in the vicinity of the feeder, by acting as a point attractant for potential nest predators. We provided feeding stations (empty, peanut feeder, peanut feeder with guard to exclude potential nest predators) in an area of suburban parkland in the UK and monitored the predation rate of eggs placed in artificial nests located at distances that replicated the size of typical suburban gardens. Nest predators (Magpies Pica pica, Grey Squirrels Sciurus carolinensis) were frequent visitors to filled feeders, and predation caused by Magpies, European Jays Garrulus glandarius and Grey Squirrels was significantly higher when nests were adjacent to filled feeders. The presence of a feeder guard did not significantly reduce nest predation. As supplementary feeding is becoming increasingly common during the breeding season in suburban habitats, we suggest that providing point attractants to nest predators at this time may have previously unconsidered consequences for the breeding success of urban birds.     

Effectiveness of nest defence in the Acadian Flycatcher Empidonax virescens

We used presentations of models to determine the effectiveness of nest defence in the Acadian Flycatcher Empidonax virescens against a nest predator (Blue Jay Cyanocitta cristata ) and a brood parasite (Brown-headed Cowbird Molothrus ater ). Principal components analysis (PCA) of four component variables of nest defence (call rate, swoop rate, closest approach and number of adults) generated a measure of overall nest defence (aggression). We determined effectiveness of defence by looking for correlations between measures of defence and measures of nest success (nest predation and brood parasitism). We also determined whether nest defence increased with clutch size, nestling age and time in the breeding season. Defence against model Brown-headed Cowbirds did not correlate with levels of parasitism, clutch size, age of young or time of breeding. There was, however, a strong, but insignificant, trend for nests with high levels of all measures of defence to suffer less from brood parasitism. Aggression, vocalization rate, closest approach and number of adults defending against models of predatory Blue Jays correlated positively with nesting success during the egg stage but not the nestling stage of the nesting cycle. Aggression, vocalization rate, closest approach correlated with clutch size and age of the brood. These results suggest that nest defence can effectively deter nest predators, but may be less effective against brood parasites. Different behavioural components of nest defence may work at different stages of the nest cycle and against different nest predators. The components of nest defence that correlated with nest success also correlated with clutch value, a result consistent with hypotheses on the evolution of nest defence.     

Parent birds assess nest predation risk and adjust their reproductive strategies

Avian life history theory has long assumed that nest predation plays a minor role in shaping reproductive strategies. Yet, this assumption remains conspicuously untested by broad experiments that alter environmental risk of nest predation, despite the fact that nest predation is a major source of reproductive failure. Here, we examined whether parents can assess experimentally reduced nest predation risk and alter their reproductive strategies. We experimentally reduced nest predation risk and show that in safer environments parents increased investment in young through increased egg size, clutch mass, and the rate they fed nestlings. Parents also increased investment in female condition by increasing the rates that males fed incubating females at the nest, and decreasing the time that females spent incubating. These results demonstrate that birds can assess nest predation risk at large and that nest predation plays a key role in the expression of avian reproductive strategies.     

Diel timing of nest predation changes across breeding season in a subtropical shorebird

Predation is the most common cause of nest failure in birds. While nest predation is relatively well studied in general, our knowledge is unevenly distributed across the globe and taxa, with, for example, limited information on shorebirds breeding in subtropics. Importantly, we know fairly little about the timing of predation within a day. Here, we followed 444 nests of the red‐wattled lapwing (Vanellus indicus), a ground‐nesting shorebird, for a sum of 7,828 days to estimate a nest predation rate, and continuously monitored 230 of these nests for a sum of 2,779 days to reveal how the timing of predation changes over the day and season in a subtropical desert. We found that 312 nests (70%) hatched, 76 nests (17%) were predated, 23 (5%) failed for other reasons, and 33 (7%) had an unknown fate. Daily predation rate was 0.95% (95%CrI: 0.76% – 1.19%), which for a 30‐day long incubation period translates into ~25% (20% – 30%) chance of nest being predated. Such a predation rate is low compared to most other avian species. Predation events (N = 25) were evenly distributed across day and night, with a tendency for increased predation around sunrise, and evenly distributed also across the season, although night predation was more common later in the season, perhaps because predators reduce their activity during daylight to avoid extreme heat. Indeed, nests were never predated when midday ground temperatures exceeded 45℃. Whether the diel activity pattern of resident predators undeniably changes across the breeding season and whether the described predation patterns hold for other populations, species, and geographical regions await future investigations.     

Sex‐Specific Parental Care in Response to Predation Risk in the European Roller,Coracias garrulus

Sublethal effects of predation constitute an important part of predation effects, which may modulate prey population and community dynamics. In birds, the risk of nest predation may cause a reduction in parental activity in the care of offspring to reduce the chance of being detected by predators. In addition, parents may modify their parental food allocation preferences within the brood in response to predation risk. Our aim in this study was to evaluate the effects of risk of nest predation on parental care and within‐nest food allocation in the European Roller (Coracias garrulus), an asynchronously hatching bird. We manipulated brood predation risk by placing a snake model near the nests that simulates the most common nest predator in the Mediterranean region. Our results show that males but not females increased their provisioning rate when they were exposed to the model and that despite this, nestlings’ body mass decreased in response to this temporary increase in predation risk. We did not find evidence that parents changed their food allocation strategy towards senior or junior nestlings in their nests in response to predation risk. These results show that the European roller modifies parental care in response to their perception of predation risk in the nest and a sex‐specific sensitivity to the threat, which suggests a different perception of offspring reproductive value by parents. Finally, our results show that changes in parental behaviour in response to nest predation risk might have consequences for nestling fitness prospects.     

Predictors of clutch predation of a globally significant avifauna in New Zealand's braided river ecosystems

Predation by introduced mammals is decimating New Zealand's indigenous fauna. Understanding factors that influence this process allows resources for predator control to be applied with maximum effect. This study examines how predation of a secondary prey species (a relatively common but declining native plover, the banded dotterel Charadrius bicinctus ) varied with reductions in abundance of a major prey source (rabbits), kill-trapping of predators, nest density and habitat complexity. Banded dotterels mostly nest in open braided riverbeds alongside a number of endemic threatened species. We measured the fate of 753 dotterel clutches exposed to predation by cats, ferrets and hedgehogs. We found key times and places of high predation risk. Immediately after widespread reduction in rabbit populations by rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD), clutch predation rates were almost as high (mean, 50%) as those recorded during past rabbit poisoning programmes (mean, 57%). Both rates were significantly higher than the mean predation rate of 22% without rabbit control, suggesting a shift in predator diet immediately after rabbit population declines. Unlike after rabbit poisoning, clutch predation rate remained high in the years after RHD. Other patterns observed included higher clutch predation rate where nest density was lower, suggesting that predation can potentially cause local extinction. Clutch predation was also higher along riverbed margins where vegetation was dense. There was equivocal evidence for an effect of predator kill-trapping on clutch predation rate. Management strategies that could potentially reduce clutch predation risks include focusing predator mitigation measures during periods of rabbit decline, maintaining them for more than one breeding season if the rabbit declines are widespread (e.g. RHD epidemics), and applying greater effort at sites with relatively low nest density and along riverbed margins where predator use is more frequent.