Warming induces synchrony and destabilizes experimental pond zooplankton metacommunities

The spatial insurance hypothesis predicts that intermediate rates of dispersal between patches in a metacommunity allow species to track favourable conditions, preserving diversity and stabilizing biomass at local and regional scales. However, theory is unclear as to whether dispersal will provide spatial insurance when environmental conditions are changing directionally. In particular, increased temperatures as a result of climate change are expected to cause synchronous growth or decline across species and communities, and this has the potential to erode the stabilizing compensatory dynamics facilitated by dispersal. Here we report on an experimental test of how dispersal affects the diversity and stability of metacommunities under warming using replicate two‐patch pond zooplankton metacommunities. Initial differences in local community composition and abiotic conditions were established by seeding each patch in the metacommunities with plankton and sediment from one of two natural ponds that differed in water chemistry and species composition. We exposed metacommunities to a 2°C increase in average ambient temperature, crossed with three rates of dispersal (none, intermediate, high). In ambient conditions, intermediate dispersal rates preserved diversity and stabilized metacommunities by promoting spatially asynchronous fluctuations in biomass, especially between local populations of the dominant genus, Ceriodaphnia. However, warming synchronized their populations so that these effects of dispersal were lost. Furthermore, because the stabilizing effect of dispersal was primarily due to asynchronous fluctuations between populations of a single genus, metacommunity biomass was stabilized, but dispersal did not stabilize local community biomass. Our results show that dispersal can preserve diversity and provide stability to metacommunities, but also show that this benefit can be eroded when warming is directional and synchronous across patches of a metacommunity, as is expected with climate warming.     

Disentangling the effects of local and regional processes on biodiversity patterns through taxon‐contingent metacommunity network analysis

Metacommunity theory, which has gained a central position in ecology, accounts for the role of migration in patterns of diversity among communities at different scales. Community isolation has a main role in this theory, but is difficult to estimate empirically, partly due to the taxon‐dependent nature of dispersal. Landscapes could be perceived as either fragmented or connected for organisms with contrasting dispersal abilities. Indeed, the dispersal ability of a taxon, and the spatial scale at which eco‐evolutionary processes shape local diversity, determine a taxon‐dependent metacommunity network. In this paper, we introduce a methodology using graph theory to define this taxon‐dependent metacommunity network and then to estimate the isolation of local communities. We analyzed the relative importance of local conditions versus community isolation as determinants of community richness for 25 taxa inhabiting 18 temporary ponds. Although local factors have been the foci of most previous empirical and theoretical considerations, we demonstrate that the metacommunity network is an equally important contributor to local diversity. We also found that the relative effect of local conditions and the metacommunity network depend on body size and taxon abundance. Local diversity of larger species was more affected by patch isolation, while taxon abundances were associated with positive or negative effects of isolation. Our results provide empirical support for the proposed role of metacommunity networks as determinants of community diversity and show the taxon‐dependent nature of these networks.     

Structure and dynamics of an amphibian metacommunity in two regions

1. The concept of metacommunity is based on the hypothesis that species occurrence depends on species dynamics and interactions on local and regional scales via the movements of individuals between localities. Metacommunity approaches are currently being applied to pond breeding taxa such as amphibians. 2. Given that animal movement is also influenced by the physical quality of the matrix to be crossed to reach a breeding habitat and by the affinity of the species for specific terrestrial habitats, matrix characteristics may enhance or hinder dispersal success. These characteristics would, in turn, affect the composition of larval assemblages at local level and, consequently, determine metacommunity structure and dynamics. 3. Here we compared the structures and dynamics of two metacommunities with the same pool of anurans along similar freshwater gradients in two regions that are well differentiated in terms of their respective terrestrial matrix. 4. Abundance of tadpole species and species assemblage in the two regions were determined principally by local processes (at pond level); however, the structure and dynamics of the communities differed. In one region species abundance was explained in part by landscape factors and consequently showed lower co-occurrence and lower colonization rates (species sorting models) indicating that terrestrial habitat could restrict animal movements, whereas in the other region higher co-occurrence and higher colonization rates (mass effect models) indicated low dispersal limitations.     

Metacommunity size influences aquatic community composition in a natural mesocosm landscape

Ecosystems are often arranged in naturally patchy landscapes with habitat patches linked by dispersal of species in a metacommunity. The size of a metacommunity, or number of patches, is predicted to influence community dynamics and therefore the structure and function of local communities. However, such predictions have yet to be experimentally tested using full food webs in natural metacommunities. We used the natural mesocosm system of aquatic macroinvertebrates in bromeliad phytotelmata to test the effect of the number of patches in a metacommunity on species richness, abundance, and community composition. We created metacommunities of varying size using fine mesh cages to enclose a gradient from a single bromeliad up to the full forest. We found that species richness, abundance, and biomass increased from enclosed metacommunities to the full forest size and that diversity and evenness also increased in larger enclosures. Community composition was affected by metacommunity size across the full gradient, with a more even detritivore community in larger metacommunities, and taxonomic groups such as mosquitoes going locally extinct in smaller metacommunities. We were able to divide the effects of metacommunity size into aquatic and terrestrial habitat components and found that the importance of each varied by species; those with simple life cycles were only affected by local aquatic habitat whereas insects with complex life cycles were also affected by the amount of terrestrial matrix. This differential survival of obligate and non‐obligate dispersers allowed us to partition the beta‐diversity between metacommunities among functional groups. Our study is one of the first tests of metacommunity size in a natural metacommunity landscape and shows that both diversity and community composition are significantly affected by metacommunity size. Synthesis Natural food webs are sensitive to meta‐community size, i.e. the number of patches connected through dispersal. We provide an empirical test using the aquatic foodweb associated within bromeliads as a model system. When we reduced the number of bromeliad patches connect through dispersal, we found a clear change of the foodweb in terms of population sizes, beta diversity, community composition and predator‐prey ratios. The response of individual taxa was predictable based on species traits including dispersal modes, life cycle, and adult resource requirements. Our study demonstrates that community structure is strongly influenced by the interplay of species traits and landscape properties.     

Strong spatial influence on colonization rates in a pioneer zooplankton metacommunity

The magnitude of community-wide dispersal is central to metacommunity models, yet dispersal is notoriously difficult to quantify in passive and cryptic dispersers such as many freshwater invertebrates. By overcoming the problem of quantifying dispersal rates, colonization rates into new habitats can provide a useful estimate of the magnitude of effective dispersal. Here we study the influence of spatial and local processes on colonization rates into new ponds that indicate differential dispersal limitation of major zooplankton taxa, with important implications for metacommunity dynamics. We identify regional and local factors that affect zooplankton colonization rates and spatial patterns in a large-scale experimental system. Our study differs from others in the unique setup of the experimental pond area by which we were able to test spatial and environmental variables at a large spatial scale. We quantified colonization rates separately for the Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera from samples collected over a period of 21 months in 48 newly constructed temporary ponds of 0.18–2.95 ha distributed in a restored wetland area of 2,700 ha in Doñana National Park, Southern Spain. Species richness upon initial sampling of new ponds was about one third of that in reference ponds, although the rate of detection of new species from thereon were not significantly different, probably owing to high turnover in the dynamic, temporary reference ponds. Environmental heterogeneity had no detectable effect on colonization rates in new ponds. In contrast, connectivity, space (based on latitude and longitude) and surface area were key determinants of colonization rates for copepods and cladocerans. This suggests dispersal limitation in cladocerans and copepods, but not in rotifers, possibly due to differences in propagule size and abundance.     

The importance of blue and green landscape connectivity for biodiversity in urban ponds

The negative impact of urbanization on biodiversity can be buffered by blue (e.g., rivers, ponds) and green (e.g., parks, forests) spaces. However, to prevent biodiversity loss and reduce the risk of local extinctions, blue and green spaces need to be connected by corridors, so that organisms may disperse between sites. Landscape connectivity affects local community composition and metacommunity dynamics by facilitating dispersal. The goal of this study was to test the relative roles of pond environmental properties, spatial structure, and functional landscape connectivity on differentiation of invertebrate metacommunities in urban ponds in the city of Stockholm, Sweden. We characterized functional connectivity as blue connectivity (distance to water bodies), green connectivity (land use), and combined blue-green connectivity. We estimated functional connectivity by using electrical circuit theory to identify dispersal corridors. Interestingly, while circuit theory is often used in single-taxon studies, this method has rarely been applied to multiple taxa forming a metacommunity, as we have done in this study. Indeed, our study contributes toward an increased focus on the role of dispersal at the metacommunity level. We determined that functional connectivity was the most important factor in explaining community differentiation, with the local environment contributing comparatively little, and spatial structure the least. Combined blue-green functional connectivity had a major influence on structuring urban pond communities, explaining 7.8% of the variance in community composition across ponds. Furthermore, we found that increased functional connectivity was associated with an increase in the number of species. In summary, our results suggest that to preserve biodiversity in urban ponds, it is important to enhance functional connectivity, and that open green spaces could augment blue corridors in maintaining functional connectivity in urban pond metacommunities. To generalize these findings, future urban biodiversity studies should compare how functional connectivity affects metacommunities across multiple major cities.     

Species abundance distribution and dynamics in two locally coupled communities

This study considered a model for species abundance dynamics in two local community (or islands) connected to a regional metacommunity. The model was analyzed using continuous probabilistic technique that employs Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck forward equation to derive the probability density of the species abundance in the two local communities. Using this technique, we proposed a classification for the species abundance dynamics in the local communities. This classification was made based on such characteristics as immigration intensity, species representation in the metacommunity and the size of local communities. We further distinguished several different scenarios for species abundance dynamics using different ecological characteristics such as species persistence, extinction and monodominance in one or both local communities. The similarity of the species abundance distributions between the two local communities was studied using the correlation coefficient between species abundances in two local communities. The correlation is a function of migration rates between local communities and between local and metacommunity. Immigration between local communities drives the homogenization of the local communities, while immigration from the metacommunity will differentiate them. This community subdivision model provides useful insights for studying the effect of landscape fragmentation on species diversity.     

Using functional diversity patterns to explore metacommunity dynamics: a framework for understanding local and regional influences on community structure

The metacommunity concept, describing how local and regional scale processes interact to structure communities, has been successfully applied to patterns of taxonomic diversity. Functional diversity has proved useful for understanding local scale processes, but has less often been applied to understanding regional scale processes. Here, we explore functional diversity patterns within a metacommunity context to help elucidate how local and regional scale processes influence community assembly. We detail how each of the four metacommunity perspectives (species sorting, mass effects, patch dynamics, neutral) predict different patterns of functional beta‐ and alpha‐diversity and spatial structure along two key gradients: dispersal limitation and environmental conditions. We then apply this conceptual model to a case study from alpine tundra plant communities. We sampled species composition in 17 ‘sky islands’ of alpine tundra in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA that differed in geographic isolation and area (key factors related to dispersal limitation) and temperature and elevation (key environmental factors). We quantified functional diversity in each site based on specific leaf area, leaf area, stomatal conductance, plant height and chlorophyll content. We found that colder high elevation sites were functionally more similar to each other (decreased functional beta‐diversity) and had lower functional alpha‐diversity. Geographic isolation and area did not influence functional beta‐ or alpha‐diversity. These results suggest a strong role for environmental conditions structuring alpine plant communities, patterns consistent with the species sorting metacommunity perspective. Incorporating functional diversity into metacommunity theory can help elucidate how local and regional factors structure communities and provide a framework for observationally examining the role of metacommunity dynamics in systems where experimental approaches are less tractable.     

Dispersal rates affect species composition in metacommunities of Sarracenia purpurea inquilines

Dispersal among local communities can have a variety of effects on species composition and diversity at local and regional scales. Local conditions (e.g., resource and predator densities) can have independent effects, as well as interact with dispersal, to alter these patterns. Based on metacommunity models, we predicted that local diversity would show a unimodal relationship with dispersal frequency. We manipulated dispersal frequencies, resource levels, and the presence of predators (mosquito larvae) among communities found in the water-filled leaves of the pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Diversity and abundance of species of the middle trophic level, protozoa and rotifers, were measured. Increased dispersal frequencies significantly increased regional species richness and protozoan abundance while decreasing the variance among local communities. Dispersal frequency interacted with predation at the local community scale to produce patterns of diversity consistent with the model. When predators were absent, we found a unimodal relationship between dispersal frequency and diversity, and when predators were present, there was a flat relationship. Intermediate dispersal frequencies maintained some species in the inquiline communities by offsetting extinction rates. Local community composition and the degree of connectivity between communities are both important for understanding species diversity patterns at local and regional scales.     

Population synchrony and stability in environmentally forced metacommunities

A general prediction from simple metapopulation models is that spatially synchronized forcing can spatially synchronize population dynamics and destabilize metapopulations. In contrast, spatially asynchronous forcing is predicted to decrease population synchrony and promote temporal stability and population persistence, especially in the presence of dispersal. Only recently have studies begun to experimentally address these predictions. Moreover, few studies have experimentally examined how such processes operate in the context of competition communities. Stabilizing processes may continue to operate when placed within a metacommunity context with multiple competing consumers but only at low to intermediate levels of dispersal. High dispersal rates can reverse these predictions and lead to destabilization. We tested this under controlled conditions using an experimental aquatic system composed of three competing species of zooplankton. Metacommunities experienced different levels of dispersal and environmental forcing in the form of spatially synchronous or asynchronous pH perturbations. We found support that dispersal can have contrasting effects on population stability depending on the degree to which population dynamics were synchronized in space. Dispersal under synchronous forcing or no forcing had either neutral of positive effects on spatial population synchrony of all three zooplankton species. In these treatments, dispersal reduced population stability at the local and metapopulation levels for two of three species. In contrast, asynchronously varying environments reduced population synchrony relative to unforced systems, regardless of dispersal level. In these treatments, dispersal enhanced temporal stability and persistence of populations not by reducing population synchrony but by enhancing population minima and spatial averaging of abundances. High dispersal rates under asynchronous forcing reduced the abundance of one species, consistent with increasing regional competition and general metacommunity theory. However, no effects on its stability or persistence were observed. Our work highlights the context‐dependent effects of dispersal on population dynamics in varying environments.     

Integrating environmental and spatial processes in ecological community dynamics

The processes controlling the abundances of species across multiple sites form the cornerstone of modern ecology. In these metacommunities, the relative importance of local environmental and regional spatial processes is currently hotly debated, especially in terms of the validity of neutral model. I collected 158 published data sets with information on community structure, environmental and spatial variables. I showed that approximately 50% of the variation in community composition is explained by both environmental and spatial variables. The majority of the data sets were structured by species-sorting dynamics (SS), followed by a combination of SS and mass-effect dynamics. While neutral processes were the only structuring process in 8% of the collected natural communities, disregarding neutral dispersal processes would result in missing important patterns in 37% of the studied communities. Moreover, metacommunity characteristics such as dispersal type, habitat type and spatial scale predicted part of the detected variation in metacommunity structure.     

Intraspecific phenotypic variation in a fish predator affects multitrophic lake metacommunity structure

Contemporary insights from evolutionary ecology suggest that population divergence in ecologically important traits within predators can generate diversifying ecological selection on local community structure. Many studies acknowledging these effects of intraspecific variation assume that local populations are situated in communities that are unconnected to similar communities within a shared region. Recent work from metacommunity ecology suggests that species dispersal among communities can also influence species diversity and composition but can depend upon the relative importance of the local environment. Here, we study the relative effects of intraspecific phenotypic variation in a fish predator and spatial processes related to plankton species dispersal on multitrophic lake plankton metacommunity structure. Intraspecific diversification in foraging traits and residence time of the planktivorous fish alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) among coastal lakes yields lake metacommunities supporting three lake types which differ in the phenotype and incidence of alewife: lakes with anadromous, landlocked, or no alewives. In coastal lakes, plankton community composition was attributed to dispersal versus local environmental predictors, including intraspecific variation in alewives. Local and beta diversity of zooplankton and phytoplankton was additionally measured in response to intraspecific variation in alewives. Zooplankton communities were structured by species sorting, with a strong influence of intraspecific variation in A. pseudoharengus. Intraspecific variation altered zooplankton species richness and beta diversity, where lake communities with landlocked alewives exhibited intermediate richness between lakes with anadromous alewives and without alewives, and greater community similarity. Phytoplankton diversity, in contrast, was highest in lakes with landlocked alewives. The results indicate that plankton dispersal in the region supplied a migrant pool that was strongly structured by intraspecific variation in alewives. This is one of the first studies to demonstrate that intraspecific phenotypic variation in a predator can maintain contrasting patterns of multitrophic diversity in metacommunities.     

Metacommunity speciation models and their implications for diversification theory

The emergence of new frameworks combining evolutionary and ecological dynamics in communities opens new perspectives on the study of speciation. By acknowledging the relative contribution of local and regional dynamics in shaping the complexity of ecological communities, metacommunity theory sheds a new light on the mechanisms underlying the emergence of species. Three integrative frameworks have been proposed, involving neutral dynamics, niche theory, and life history trade‐offs respectively. Here, we review these frameworks of metacommunity theory to emphasise that: (1) studies on speciation and community ecology have converged towards similar general principles by acknowledging the central role of dispersal in metacommunities dynamics, (2) considering the conditions of emergence and maintenance of new species in communities has given rise to new models of speciation embedded in the metacommunity theory, (3) studies of diversification have shifted from relating phylogenetic patterns to landscapes spatial and ecological characteristics towards integrative approaches that explicitly consider speciation in a mechanistic ecological framework. We highlight several challenges, in particular the need for a better integration of the eco‐evolutionary consequences of dispersal and the need to increase our understanding on the relative rates of evolutionary and ecological changes in communities.     

The importance of landscape and habitat properties in explaining instantaneous and long‐term distributions of large branchiopods in subtropical temporary pans

1. The notion that the spatial configuration of habitat patches has to be taken into account to understand the structure and dynamics of ecological communities is the starting point of metacommunity ecology. One way to assess metacommunity structure is to investigate the relative importance of environmental heterogeneity and spatial structure in explaining community patterns over different spatial and temporal scales. 2. We studied metacommunity structure of large branchiopod assemblages characteristic of subtropical temporary pans in SE Zimbabwe using two community data sets: a community snapshot and a long‐term data set covering 4 years. We assessed the relative importance of environmental heterogeneity and dispersal (inferred from patch occupancy patterns) as drivers of community structure. Furthermore, we contrasted metacommunity patterns in pans that occasionally connect to the river (floodplain pans) and pans that lack such connections altogether (endorheic pans) using redundancy models. 3. Echoes of species sorting and dispersal limitation emerge from our data set, suggesting that both local and regional processes contribute to explaining branchiopod assemblages in this system. Relative importance of local and regional factors depended on the type of data set considered. Overall, habitat characteristics that vary in time, such as conductivity, hydroperiod and vegetation cover, best explained the instantaneous species composition observed during a snapshot sampling while long‐term species composition appeared to be linked to more constant intrinsic habitat properties such as river connectivity and spatial location.     

Five Years of Experimental Warming Increases the Biodiversity and Productivity of Phytoplankton

Phytoplankton are key components of aquatic ecosystems, fixing CO₂ from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and supporting secondary production, yet relatively little is known about how future global warming might alter their biodiversity and associated ecosystem functioning. Here, we explore how the structure, function, and biodiversity of a planktonic metacommunity was altered after five years of experimental warming. Our outdoor mesocosm experiment was open to natural dispersal from the regional species pool, allowing us to explore the effects of experimental warming in the context of metacommunity dynamics. Warming of 4°C led to a 67% increase in the species richness of the phytoplankton, more evenly-distributed abundance, and higher rates of gross primary productivity. Warming elevated productivity indirectly, by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the local phytoplankton communities. Warming also systematically shifted the taxonomic and functional trait composition of the phytoplankton, favoring large, colonial, inedible phytoplankton taxa, suggesting stronger top-down control, mediated by zooplankton grazing played an important role. Overall, our findings suggest that temperature can modulate species coexistence, and through such mechanisms, global warming could, in some cases, increase the species richness and productivity of phytoplankton communities.     

The relative importance of dispersal and local processes in structuring phytoplankton communities in a set of highly interconnected ponds

1. The recognition that both local and regional processes act together in shaping local communities makes determining their relative roles in natural communities central to understanding patterns in community structure. 2. We investigated the relative influence of these processes on the phytoplankton communities of a highly interconnected pond system. We sampled the phytoplankton communities of 28 ponds concurrently with 20 local environmental variables. 3. We found that phytoplankton community variation, in terms of both phytoplankton community composition (PCC) and diversity, was only significantly explained by local environmental variables. These were mainly associated with the contrasting clear‐water and turbid ecological states of the shallow ponds studied. Clear‐water conditions favoured only a few taxa, resulting in a significantly lower taxon diversity and richness under these conditions. 4. The failure to explain variation in PCC by a dispersal model based on the water flow between ponds points at very effective species sorting. This is attributed to the high population turn‐over rates and sensitivity to environmental conditions of phytoplankton communities. Some evidence was found, however, that dispersal influences local communities through mass effects between neighbouring ponds. 5. Overall, our results emphasize both the strong selection pressure that components of the food web exert on phytoplankton communities and the high potential of these communities to respond to such environmental change, thereby effectively opposing the homogenizing effects of continuous dispersal.     

The influence of niche and neutral processes on a neotropical anuran metacommunity

One of the most important questions in ecology is the relative importance of local conditions (niche processes) and dispersal ability (neutral processes) in driving metacommunity structure. Although many studies have been conducted in recent years, there is still much debate. We evaluated the processes (niche and neutral) responsible for variation in anuran composition in 28 lentic water bodies in southeastern Brazil. Because anurans depend heavily on environmental conditions, we hypothesized that environmental variables (niche processes) are the most important drivers of community composition. Additionally, as anurans have limited dispersal abilities, and the study region presents harsh conditions (high forest fragmentation, low rainfall and long dry season), we expected a lower, but significant, spatial signature in metacommunity structure, due to neutral dynamics. We used a partial redundancy analysis with variation partitioning to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and spatial variables as drivers of metacommunity structure. Additionally, we used a recently developed spatial autocorrelation analysis to test if neutral dynamics can be attributed to the pure spatial component. This analysis is based on predictions that species abundances are independent but similarly spatially structured, with correlograms similar in shape. Therefore, under neutral dynamics there is no expectation of a correlation between the pairwise distance of spatial correlograms and the pairwise correlation of species abundances predicted by the pure spatial component. We found that the environmental component explained 21.5%, the spatial component 10.2%, and the shared component 6.4% of the metacommunity structure. We found no correlation between correlograms and correlation of abundances predicted by the pure spatial component (Mantel test = ?0.109, P = 0.961). In our study, niche‐based processes are the dominant process that explained community composition. However, neutral processes are important because spatial variation can be attributed to pure neutral dynamics rather than to missing spatially structured environmental factors.     

Dispersal, edaphic fidelity and speciation in species-rich Western Australian shrublands: evaluating a neutral model of biodiversity

Over evolutionary time, the number of species in a community reflects the balance between the rate of speciation and the rate of extinction. Over shorter time‐scales local species richness is also affected by how often species move into and out of the local community. These processes are at the heart of Hubbell's ‘unified neutral theory of biodiversity’ ( Hubbell 2001 ). Hubbell's spatially implicit, dispersal‐limited neutral model is the most widely used of the many implementations of neutral theory and it provides an estimate of the rate of speciation in a metacommunity (if metacommunity size is known) and the rate at which species migrate into the local community from the wider metacommunity. Recently, this neutral model has been used to compare rates of speciation and migration in the species‐rich fynbos of South Africa and in neotropical forests. Here we use new analytical methods for estimating the neutral model's parameters to infer speciation and dispersal rates for three sites in species‐rich sclerophyll shrublands (equivalent to fynbos) in Western Australia (WA). Our estimates suggest that WA shrublands are intermediate between fynbos and tropical rainforest in terms of speciation and dispersal. Although a weak test, the model predicts species abundance distributions and species accumulation curves similar to those observed at the three sites. The neutral model's predictions also remain plausible when confronted with independent data describing: (1) known edaphic relationships between sites, (2) estimates of metacommunity species richness and (3) rates of speciation among resprouters and nonsprouters. Two of the site pairs, however, show species turnovers significantly different from those predicted by the spatially implicit form of the neutral model that we use. This suggests that non‐neutral processes, in this case probably edaphic specialisation, are important in the WA shrubland metacommunity. The neutral model predicts similar rates of speciation in resprouter and sprouter taxa, a finding supported by recent molecular phylogenies. Finally, when converted into temporally scaled speciation rates and species longevities, the estimates produced by the neutral model seem implausible. The apparent departure from neutrality in the turnover of species between some sites and the implausible temporal dynamics may be due to the particular model chosen and does not reduce the significance of our other results, which confirm that local dispersal limitation, coupled with broader scale edaphic fidelity, combine to structure this biodiverse metacommunity.     

Metacommunity,mainland‐island system or island communities? Assessing the regional dynamics of plant communities in a fragmented landscape

Understanding the regional dynamics of plant communities is crucial for predicting the response of plant diversity to habitat fragmentation. However, for fragmented landscapes the importance of regional processes, such as seed dispersal among isolated habitat patches, has been controversially debated. Due to the stochasticity and rarity of among‐patch dispersal and colonization events, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the consequences of these processes at the landscape‐scale. In this study, we used extensive field data from a fragmented, semi‐arid landscape in Israel to parameterize a multi‐species incidence‐function model. This model simulates species occupancy pattern based on patch areas and habitat configuration and explicitly considers the locations and the shapes of habitat patches for the derivation of patch connectivity. We implemented an approximate Bayesian computation approach for parameter inference and uncertainty assessment. We tested which of the three types of regional dynamics – the metacommunity, the mainland‐island, or the island communities type – best represents the community dynamics in the study area and applied the simulation model to estimate the extinction debt in the investigated landscape. We found that the regional dynamics in the patch‐matrix study landscape is best represented as a system of highly isolated ‘island’ communities with low rates of propagule exchange among habitat patches and consequently low colonization rates in local communities. Accordingly, the extinction rates in the local communities are the main drivers of community dynamics. Our findings indicate that the landscape carries a significant extinction debt and in model projections 33–60% of all species went extinct within 1000 yr. Our study demonstrates that the combination of dynamic simulation models with field data provides a promising approach for understanding regional community dynamics and for projecting community responses to habitat fragmentation. The approach bears the potential for efficient tests of conservation activities aimed at mitigating future losses of biodiversity.     

Temporal dynamics of a local fish community are strongly affected by immigration from the surrounding metacommunity

A 5‐year time series of annual censuses was collected from a large floodplain lake to determine how dynamics of the local fish community were affected by changes in hydrological connectivity with the surrounding metacommunity. The lake was disconnected from the metacommunity for 1 year prior to our study and remained disconnected until 3 months before our third annual census, when a flood reconnected the lake to the metacommunity. We determined how changes in connectivity affected temporal dynamics of (1) local community composition and (2) the population composition, condition, and growth of catfish, to shed light on how immigration of other species might affect local population dynamics. Before reconnection, the community was likely shaped by interactions between the local environment and species traits. The reconnection caused significant immigration and change in community composition and correlated with a significant and abrupt decline in catfish condition, growth, and abundance; effects likely due to the immigration of a competitor with a similar trophic niche: carp. The community was slow to return to its preconnection state, which may be due to dispersal traits of the fishes, and a time‐lag in the recovery of the local catfish population following transient intensification of species interactions. The dynamics observed were concordant with the species sorting and mass‐effects perspectives of metacommunity theory. Floods cause episodic dispersal in floodplain fish metacommunities, and so, flood frequency determines the relative importance of regional and local processes. Local processes may be particularly important to certain species, but these species may need sufficient time between floods for population increase, before the next flood‐induced dispersal episode brings competitors and predators that might cause population decline. Accordingly, species coexistence in these metacommunities may be facilitated by spatiotemporal storage effects, which may in turn be regulated by flood frequency.