Univariate analysis of tsetse habitat in the common fly belt of Southern Africa using climate and remotely sensed vegetation data

Abstract Tsetse are vectors of trypanosomes that cause diseases both in humans and livestock. Traditional tsetse surveys, using sampling methods such as Epsilon traps and black screen fly rounds, are often logistically difficult, costly and time-consuming. The distribution of tsetse, as revealed by such survey methods, is strongly influenced by environmental conditions, such as climate and vegetation cover, which may be readily mapped using satellite data. These data may be used to make predictions of the probable distribution of tsetse in unsurveyed areas by determining the environmental characteristics of areas of tsetse presence and absence in surveyed areas. The same methods may also be used to characterize differences between tsetse species and subspecies. In this paper we analyse the distribution of Glossina morsitans centralis, Glossina morsitans morsitans and Glossina pallidipes in southern Africa with respect to single environmental variables. For G.m.centralis the best predictions were made using the average NDVI (75% correct predictions; range > 0.37) and the average of the maximum temperature (70% correct predictions; 27.0–29.2°C). For G.m.morsitans the best prediction was given by the maximum of the minimum temperature (84% correct predictions; range > 18.8°C), and for G.pallidipes , also by the maximum of the minimum temperature (86% correct predictions; range > 19.6 °C). The following paper compares a range of multivariate techniques for making predictions about the distribution of these species in the same region.     

Phenological description of natural vegetation in southern Africa using remotely‐sensed vegetation data

Abstract. Various attempts have been made to describe and map the vegetation of southern Africa with recent efforts having an increasingly ecologi cal context. Vegetation classification is usually based on vegetation physiognomy and floristic composition, but phenology is useful source of information which is rarely used, although it can contribute functional information on ecosystems. The objectives of this study were to identify a suite of variables derived from time‐series NDVI data that best describe the phenological phenomena of vegetation in southern Africa and, secondly, to assess a classification of pixels of the study area based on NDVI variables using a preexisting map of the biomes that was delimited on the basis of life forms and climate. A number of variables were derived from the satellite data for describing phenological phenomena, which were analysed by multivariate techniques to determine which variables best explained the variation in the satellite data. This set of variables was used to produce a phenological classification of the vegetation of southern Africa, the results of which are discussed in relation to their concordance with the existing biome boundaries.     

乌伊岭国家级自然保护区植被覆盖演变及其对气候突变的响应

探究中国北方高纬度森林覆盖区植被演变受到气候因子变化乃至突变的影响,选用MODIS-NDVI数据与TM/ETM+数据,结合62年的气象观测数据,运用像元二分法模型、累计距平分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验与相关性分析,探讨了乌伊岭国家级自然保护区1975—2016年气候变化及其突变对植被覆盖的演化规律,并对不同气候因子与植被覆盖类型的空间变化进行相关性分析。结果表明:(1)乌伊岭保护区气候变化呈现暖干化发展的趋势。年均气温上升(0.557℃/10a),年均最低气温与冬季增温幅度最快,秋季最慢。降水量年际变化较小(-14.052 mm/10a),季节性变化明显。经突变性检验,1980—1995年是气候增温减湿的突变时期。(2)研究区植被生长季的NDVI为0.673,有植被覆盖的区域占87.69%,其中高等植被覆盖区所占比最大。(3)气候突变时期,生长季NDVI显著下降,植被退化严重。低植被覆盖区无显著变化,而高植被覆盖区开始逐渐退化为中等与中低等植被覆盖区。在空间上植被覆盖的退化状况主要由中心山地沿四周低山丘陵区累年逐渐降低。不同植被覆盖区域下降的幅度:混交林草地针叶林耕地湿地。(4)乌伊岭保护区年均最大NDVI与年均气温和年均降水量的相关系数分别为0.261、0.068,其中呈正相关区域占总面积56.67%和42.79%,在分布趋势上两者都表现出明显的空间差异性。而气温因子影响植被覆盖的空间范围与能力更强,空间相关性更高,也是影响植被退化的主导因素。     

近50年北京植被对全球变暖的响应及其时效--基于遥感数据和物候资料的分析

植被对全球变暖的响应方式及其程度问题是全球变化研究的焦点之一。利用1951～2000年的气温、降水等气候资料、1982～2000年的NOAA／AVHRR遥感数据和1951～2002年山桃始花的物候数据,分析了北京各气候参量与生态系统植被在年际和年内时间尺度上的变化规律及其关系。结果表明,北京近20年增温1．2E,增温态势显著;过去50年中,降水的年际变化小于生长季内的波动幅度。年NDVI最大值(VP)、平均值(VM)的年际变化曲线呈波动中缓慢上升的趋势,表明植被的生长状况总体上在变好或生长季在延长。VP出现日期(VPI))提前,20世纪90年代比80年代提前4．5d。山桃始花物候期的分析表明,北京1988年以后春季开始日期提前9．63d。时间尺度不同,各个气候指标对各植被指标的影响程度不同：①年际时间尺度,年均温影响VP、VM的时效为1年;月际水平上,除温度影响VM的时效为2个月外,各气候参量影响VP、VM的时效为1个月。年际尺度上,温度影响山桃始花时效为2年;月际尺度上,2、3、4月份温度影响山桃始花日期。     

黄土高原泾河流域长时间序列的归一化植被指数动态变化及其驱动因素分析

泾河流域土地开发历史悠久, 是黄土高原水土流失的典型区域。研究气候变化和人类活动影响下泾河流域的植被覆盖变化及其原因, 对黄土高原的植被恢复、水土保持和景观管理等都具有重要意义。该研究应用GIMMS归一化植被指数NDVI、土地覆盖分类数据和气候数据, 采用趋势分析和相关分析方法, 研究了泾河流域1982-2005年植被覆盖变化趋势及其驱动因素。研究表明: 泾河流域24年间79.64%的区域NDVI无显著变化趋势, NDVI趋势显著增加的区域占16.33%, 主要集中在流域中部和南部, NDVI趋势显著减小的区域占4.03%, 主要集中在流域北部。流域所有气象站点的降水量均无显著变化趋势, 气温均呈显著升高趋势。分析发现气候变化不能很好地解释NDVI趋势的空间分异, 人为因素更为重要。从土地利用分析结果来看, NDVI不同趋势下各土地利用类型比例无明显变化, 但NDVI显著增加区以耕地为主, 显著减小区以草地为主, 由此推断NDVI的显著增加趋势主要由耕地NDVI增加引起, 显著减小趋势可能与林地减少和草地退化有关。通过分析不同分区的土地利用数据和社会经济资料, 着重探讨了造成植被覆盖显著变化趋势的人为因素。     

气候变化和人类活动对祁连山国家公园植被净初级生产力的定量影响

祁连山国家公园作为西北地区重要的生态安全屏障和水源涵养地,研究其植被变化对西北地区的生态安全具有重要意义。基于2000—2019年祁连山国家公园的MOD17A3遥感数据,利用一元线性回归、偏相关分析、多元线性回归和残差分析等方法,分析了祁连山国家公园植被净初级生产力(NPP)的时空态势及其与降水、气温和人类活动的相关性,在此基础上量化气候变化和人类活动对植被NPP的影响。结果表明：(1)2000—2019年祁连山国家公园植被NPP整体呈波动上升趋势,且空间上呈东高西低的分布格局,其多年平均值为113.14 g C m^-2 a^-1,年均增长量达1.41 g C m^-2 a^-1;(2)植被NPP与降水、气温均呈正相关,其中降水对植被NPP影响更为显著;(3)人类活动区植被NPP总体呈增加趋势,与2016年相比,2019年人类活动区植被NPP增加的面积占87%,植被NPP降低的面积占13%;(4)在植被恢复区,气候变化和人类活动对植被恢复分别解释了92%和8%;在植被退化区,气候变化和人类活动对植被退化分...     

Radial growth and climate responses of white oak (Quercus alba) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra) at the northern distribution limit of white oak in Quebec, Canada

Aim The objectives of this study were: (1) to compare radial growth patterns between white oak (Quercus alba L.) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) growing at the northern distribution limit of white oak; and (2) to assess if the radial growth of white oak at its northern distribution limit is controlled by cold temperature. Location The study was conducted in three regions of the Ottawa valley in southern Québec. All stands selected were located at the northern limit of distribution of Q. alba. Methods Twelve mixed red and white oak stands were sampled and increment cores were extracted for radial growth analyses. For each oak species, 12 chronologies were derived from tree‐ring measurement (residual chronologies). Principal components analysis and redundancy analysis were used to highlight the difference between radial growth in both species and to determine their radial growth–climate association. Results There was little difference between the radial growth of each species; Q. alba, however, exhibits more year‐to‐year variation in growth than Q. rubra. More than 65% of the variance in radial growth was shared among sites and species. Both species showed a similar response to climate, which suggested that the limit of distribution of Q. alba might not be determined by effects on growth. Both species had a classic response to climate and drought in the early growing season. Main conclusions The northern distribution limit of Q. alba does not appear to be directly controlled by effects on growth processes as indicated by the similarities in radial growth and response to climate between the two species. The location of the stands on southern aspects suggested that cold temperature could have been a major factor controlling the distribution limit of Q. alba. However, it is speculated that stands growing on southern aspects may be more prone to forest fires or to drought, which would favour the maintenance and establishment of oaks, and of Q. alba in particular. Models relating the northern distribution limits of species to broad climate parameters like annual mean temperature will need to be reviewed to incorporate more biologically relevant information. Such assessments will in turn provide better estimates of the effect of climate changes on species distribution.