Survival estimates of bird species across altered habitats in the tropical Andes

The probability of long‐term persistence of a population is strongly determined by adult survival rates, but estimates of survival are currently lacking for most species of birds in the tropical Andes, a global biodiversity hotspot. We calculated apparent survival rates of birds in the Ecuadorian tropical Andes using a moderately long‐term (11 yr) capture–recapture dataset from three habitats that varied in how much they had been modified by human activities (native forest, introduced forest, and shrubs). We fit mark–recapture models for 28 species with habitat as a covariable. For all species, recapture rates between sampling sessions were low and varied from 0.04 for Rainbow Starfrontlets (Coeligena iris) to 0.41 for Stripe‐headed Brushfinches (Arremon assimilis) when averaged across all occupied habitats. Annual survival rates varied from 0.07 for Black‐crested Warblers (Margarornis squamiger) to 0.75 for Violet‐throated Metaltails (Metallura baroni). We found no significant differences in survival rates either among habitats or species grouped by habitat specialization. Because we found similar survival rates in native forest and human‐modified habitats, our results support those of recent studies concerning the potential value of secondary habitats for the conservation of some species of birds in the tropics. However, our conclusions are tempered by the uncertainty around the estimates of survival rates. Despite the relatively long‐term nature of our study, obtaining survival estimates for bird species in this region was challenging, and either more years of study or modification of field protocols may be needed to obtain more precise survival estimates.     

Great tits take greater risk toward humans and sparrowhawks in urban habitats than in forests

Urban animals often take more risk toward humans than their non‐urban conspecifics do, but it is unclear how urbanization affects behavior toward non‐human predators. Responses to humans and non‐human predators may covary due to common mechanisms enforcing a phenotypic correlation. However, while increased tolerance toward humans may be advantageous for urban animals, reduced vigilance toward non‐human predators that can pose actual threat may be costly. Therefore, urban animals may benefit from showing specific responses to different threat levels, such as humans versus non‐human predators, or hostile versus non‐hostile humans. To test these alternatives, we compared responses (latencies to return to nest) of urban and forest‐breeding great tits (Parus major) to familiar hostile and unfamiliar humans as well as one of their common predators, the sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus). We found that urban birds were more risk‐taking toward both humans and sparrowhawk than forest birds. However, responses to sparrowhawk did not correlate with responses to humans either within or across habitats. This suggests that higher risk‐taking of urban compared to forest‐dwelling great tits toward sparrowhawk may be threat‐specific response to lower predation risk rather than a spillover effect of increased tolerance to humans. Furthermore, birds responded similarly to unfamiliar and familiar (potentially dangerous) humans in both habitats, suggesting that great tits may not adjust their risk‐taking to the threat represented by individual humans. These findings indicate that urban birds may flexibly adjust their risk‐taking to certain, but not all, types of threat.     

Population dynamics of an expanding passerine at the distribution margin

Individuals may be maladapted to novel environments at the species’ distribution margin. We investigated population dynamics in a marginal habitat where reproduction has been proven poor. Survival, population growth rate (λ) and its components, breeding and natal dispersal were studied in great tits Parus major breeding at the northern margin of its distribution in northern Finland. We used long term capture–mark–recapture data sets. Study area size and population density were used to explain adult survival rates. The average annual estimates of adult survival rose from 0.371 to 0.388 between the periods of 1971–1984 and 1999–2009. The estimates are slightly lower than estimates of small passerines in Europe. Low local survival rate of fledglings (0.050–0.055) probably reflects intensified emigration from this low quality area. Temporal variation in λ was large (0.498–1.856). Despite of low adult survival and recruitment rates, the mean estimates of λ (1.008 and 1.033) indicate an overall stability in the population size. Indeed, our results suggest that the immigration has an important role in the population dynamics of northern great tits. Thus the population is demographically and genetically dependent on core habitats which may cause adaptive problems due to intensive gene flow. Given those limitations, options for evolution of local adaptations in northern distribution margins are discussed.     

Personality and urbanization: behavioural traits and <Emphasis Type="Italic">DRD4</Emphasis> SNP830 polymorphisms in great tits in Barcelona city

Most examples of adaptation to the urban environment relate to plasticity processes rather than to natural selection. Personality, however, defined as consistent individual differences in behaviour related to exploration, caution, and neophobia, is a good behavioural candidate character to study natural selection in relation to the urban habitat due to its heritable variation. The aim of this paper was to analyse variation in personality by comparing urban and forest great tits Parus major using standard tests of exploratory behaviour and boldness. We studied personality in 130 wild great tits captured in Barcelona city and nearby forests and found that urban birds were more explorative and bolder towards a novel object than forest birds. Genotype frequencies of the DRD4 SNP830 polymorphism, a gene region often associated with personality variation, varied significantly between forest and urban birds. Behavioural scores, however, were not correlated with this polymorphism in our population. Exploration scores correlated to boldness for forest birds but not for urban birds. Our findings suggest that the novel selection pressures of the urban environment favour the decoupling of behavioural traits that commonly form behavioural syndromes in the wild.     

Evolutionary quantitative genetics of behavioral responses to handling in a wild passerine

Behavioral differences between individuals that are consistent over time characterize animal personality. The existence of such consistency contrasts to the expectation based on classical behavioral theory that facultative behavior maximizes individual fitness. Here, we study two personality traits (aggression and breath rate during handling) in a wild population of blue tits during 2007–2012. Handling aggression and breath rate were moderately heritable (h² = 0.35 and 0.20, respectively) and not genetically correlated (r_A = 0.06) in adult blue tits, which permits them to evolve independently. Reciprocal cross‐fostering (2007–2010) showed that offspring reared by more aggressive males have a higher probability to recruit. In addition, offspring reared by pairs mated assortatively for handling aggression had a higher recruitment probability, which is the first evidence that both parents' personalities influence their reproductive success in the wild in a manner independent of their genetic effects. Handling aggression was not subjected to survival selection in either sex, but slow‐breathing females had a higher annual probability of survival as revealed by capture–mark–recapture analysis. We find no evidence for temporal fluctuations in selection, and thus conclude that directional selection (via different fitness components) acts on these two heritable personality traits. Our findings show that blue tit personality has predictable fitness consequences, but that facultative adjustment of an individual's personality to match the fitness maximum is likely constrained by the genetic architecture of personality. In the face of directional selection, the presence of heritable variation in personality suggests the existence of a trade‐off that we have not identified yet.     

Does food supplementation really enhance productivity of breeding birds?

Food availability influences multiple stages of the breeding cycle of birds, and supplementary feeding has helped in its understanding. Most supplementation studies have reported advancements of laying, whilst others, albeit less numerous, have also demonstrated fitness benefits such as larger clutches, shorter incubation periods, and greater hatching success. Relatively few studies, however, have investigated the effects of supplementary feeding for protracted periods across multiple stages of the breeding cycle. These effects are important to understand since long-term food supplementation of birds is recommended in urban habitats and is used as a tool to increase reproductive output in endangered species. Here, we compare the breeding phenology and productivity of blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus and great tits Parus major breeding in food-supplemented and non-supplemented blocks in a broadleaf woodland in central England over three seasons (2006–2008). Supplementation was provided continuously from several weeks pre-laying until hatching, and had multiple significant effects. Most notably, supplementation reduced brood size significantly in both species, by half a chick or more at hatching (after controlling for year and hatching date). Reduced brood sizes in supplemented pairs were driven by significantly smaller clutches in both species and, in blue tits, significantly lower hatching success. These are novel and concerning findings of food supplementation. As expected, supplementary feeding advanced laying and shortened incubation periods significantly in both species. We discuss the striking parallels between our findings and patterns in blue and great tit reproduction in urban habitats, and conclude that supplementary feeding may not always enhance the breeding productivity of birds.     

Beak morphology predicts apparent survival of crossbills: due to selective survival or selective dispersal?

Dozens of morphologically differentiated populations, subspecies and species of crossbills (genus Loxia) exist. It has been suggested that this divergence is due to variation in the conifer cones that each population specialises upon, requiring a specific beak size to efficiently separate the cone scales. If so, apparent survival should depend on beak size. To test this hypothesis, we undertook multievent capture–recapture modelling for 6844 individuals monitored during 27 years in a Pyrenean common crossbill L. curvirostra population in a forest of mountain pine Pinus uncinata. Apparent survival was indeed related to beak width, resulting in stabilizing selection around an optimum that was close to the observed mean beak width, indicating that local crossbill beak morphology is adapted to the conifer they feed upon. Both natural selection (selective mortality) and selective emigration of maladapted individuals may explain our findings. As is often the case in capture–recapture analyses but rarely recognised, we could not formally decompose apparent survival into selective mortality versus selective permanent emigration. Nonetheless, there are several indications that selective permanent emigration should not be fully excluded. First, natural selection by itself would have to be unusually strong compared to other empirical estimates to create the observed pattern of apparent survival. Second, the observed mean beak width was a bit lower than the estimated optimum beak width. This can be explained by immigration of crossbills with smaller beaks originating from southern populations, which may subsequently have left the study area permanently in response to low food intake. This is in line with a detected transient effect in the data, yet apparently little influx from crossbills from northern Europe. When permanent emigration is phenotypically selective this will have ecological and evolutionary consequences, so this possibility deserves more attention in general.     

Evidence of a link between survival and pair fidelity across multiple tit populations

Although they have the potential to strongly influence individual fitness and the dynamics and productivity of populations, the survival consequences of pairing outcomes and the influence of current pairing outcomes on those in the future have rarely been addressed. Previously, we have shown that pair fidelity increases both survival and future pair fidelity in a population of great tits Parus major. The aim of this study was to explore the generality of our previous findings by evaluating the influence of current paring outcomes on survival and on future pairing outcomes in two different species and in different populations. We addressed our aims within a multievent capture–mark–recapture (MECMR) statistical framework, which accounts for differences in recapture rates and uncertainty in the assignment of pair status (i.e. whether an individual is breeding with the same partner or not). We applied the framework to breeding records of two great tit populations and one blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus population. We detected survival benefits (i.e. increased survival) of pair fidelity in all three populations. These were similar in both great tit populations, but higher for male great tits than for male blue tits. We found that age‐dependence in the rate of pair fidelity was shared between different populations and species, but did not detect any influence of current pair status on future pair status. Our study highlights the importance of considering survival when studying the fitness benefits of pair fidelity. Some of the differences in pair fidelity rates and survival benefits of pair fidelity are likely the result of long‐term and short‐term demographic and environmental factors in the population. We advocate the use of the MECMR framework used here for further exploration of these differences.     

Habitat fragmentation influences nestling growth in Mediterranean blue and great tits

In patchy forest areas, the size of the forest patch where birds breed has a strong influence on their breeding success. However, the proximate effects contributing to lowering the breeding success in small forest patches remain unclear; and a shortage of crucial resources in those forest patches has been suggested to account in some degree for this failure. With the aim to further investigate this issue, we have monitored the breeding cycle of blue and great tits in three ‘large’ forest patches (ranging between 26.5 and 29.6 ha) and twelve ‘small’ forest patches (ranging between 1.1 and 2.1 ha) in a Mediterranean area in central Spain, during three years (2011–2013). We also recorded the nestling diet inside the nest-boxes with the aid of handy-cams. Only males significantly differed between forest patch size categories; being on average younger and with better body condition in small patches for great and blue tits respectively. Reproductive traits did not vary between forest patch size categories, but the body condition of blue tit nestlings and the size of great tit nestlings did, being significantly better and larger respectively in large forest patches. The recruitment rate of blue tit nestlings was also higher in large patches. Regarding nestling diet, blue tits did not differ but great tits did, delivering a larger amount of caterpillars in large forest patches. Most variation in the reproductive traits occurred between years, probably due to annual differences in environmental conditions. This study suggests that food supply could be limiting the breeding success of birds above all in small patches, but also in large patches under particular environmental conditions.     

Haldane's rule revisited: do hybrid females have a shorter lifespan? Survival of hybrids in a recent contact zone between two large gull species

Haldane's rule predicts that particularly high fitness reduction should affect the heterogametic sex of interspecific hybrids. Despite the fact that hybridization is widespread in birds, survival of hybrid individuals is rarely addressed in studies of avian hybrid zones, possibly because of methodological constraints. Here, having applied capture–mark–recapture models to an extensive, 19‐year‐long data set on individually marked birds, we estimate annual survival rates of hybrid individuals in the hybrid zone between herring (Larus argentatus) and Caspian (Larus cachinnans) gulls. In both parental species, males have a slightly higher survival rate than females (model‐weighted mean ± SE: herring gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01, Caspian gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01). Hybrid males do not survive for a shorter time than nonhybrid ones (0.88 ± 0.01), whereas hybrid females have the lowest survival rate among all groups of individuals (0.83 ± 0.03). This translates to a shorter adult (reproductive) lifespan (on average by 1.7–1.8 years, i.e. ca 25%) compared with nonhybrid females. We conclude that, in line with Haldane's rule, the lower survival rate of female hybrids may contribute to selection against hybrids in this hybrid zone.     

Survival costs of within‐ and between‐season mate change in the European blackbird Turdus merula

Many studies of socially monogamous birds discuss the adaptive role of between‐season partner change, but only a handful of them refer to the benefits of pair fidelity in terms of increased survival. Moreover, there are no studies describing the benefits of within‐season mate retention. Our data relating to an urban population of European blackbirds Turdus merula enabled us to test the dependence of survival on pair faithfulness. Because blackbirds divorce within and between seasons, we were able to test the influence of pair faithfulness on their within‐ and between‐season survival and mate fidelity. For this purpose, we used a multievent capture–mark–recapture (MECMR) statistical model, which is based on recapture rates and different pair states (faithful to mate, paired with new partner, or dead). Our study indicated that between‐ and within‐season survival depends on pair states: pair‐bond duration increases survival to the next capture occasion in both sexes. We found that the pair‐bond duration to the current partner increased the chances of being with the same partner during the next breeding occasion, although we failed to find any within‐season pair‐bond influence for females. Our results showed sex differences in mating at the end of the season: females had a much smaller chance of breeding with the current new partner in the next year. This study has demonstrated that within‐ and between‐season survival is dependent on mate retention, and we discuss this in the context of how searching for a new partner could affect the birds’ survival.     

Combining capture–recapture data and pedigree information to assess heritability of demographic parameters in the wild

Quantitative genetic analyses have been increasingly used to estimate the genetic basis of life‐history traits in natural populations. Imperfect detection of individuals is inherent to studies that monitor populations in the wild, yet it is seldom accounted for by quantitative genetic studies, perhaps leading to flawed inference. To facilitate the inclusion of imperfect detection of individuals in such studies, we develop a method to estimate additive genetic variance and assess heritability for binary traits such as survival, using capture–recapture (CR) data. Our approach combines mixed‐effects CR models with a threshold model to incorporate discrete data in a standard ‘animal model’ approach. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and present the first estimate of heritability of adult survival in the wild. In agreement with the prediction that selection should deplete additive genetic variance in fitness, we found that survival had low heritability. Because the detection process is incorporated, capture–recapture animal models (CRAM) provide unbiased quantitative genetics analyses of longitudinal data collected in the wild.     

Estimating age‐dependent survival when juveniles resemble females: Invasive ring‐necked parakeets as an example

Many species only show sexual dimorphism at the age of maturity, such that juveniles typically resemble females. Under these circumstances, estimating accurate age‐specific demographic parameters is challenging. Here, we propose a multievent model parameterization able to estimate age‐dependent survival using capture–recapture data with uncertainty in age and sex assignment of individuals. We illustrate this modeling approach with capture–recapture data from the ring‐necked parakeet Psittacula krameri. We analyzed capture, recapture, and resighting data (439 recaptures/resightings) of 156 ring‐necked parakeets tagged with neck collars in Barcelona city from 2003 to 2016 to estimate the juvenile and adult survival rate. Our models successfully estimated the survival probabilities of the different age classes considered. Survival probability was similar between adults (0.83, 95% CI = 0.77–0.87) and juveniles during their second (0.79, 95% CI = 0.58–0.87) and third winter (0.83, 95% CI = 0.65–0.88). The youngest juveniles (1st winter) showed a slightly lower survival (0.57, 95% CI = 0.37–0.79). Among adults, females showed a slightly higher survival than males (0.87, 95% CI = 0.78–0.93; and 0.80, 95% CI = 0.73–0.86, respectively). These high survival figures predict high population persistence in this species and urge management policies. The analysis also stresses the usefulness of multievent models to estimate juvenile survival when age cannot be fully ascertained.     

Breeding Success Affects the Apparent Survival of Grassland Passerines

The apparent adult survival rate is one of the key population parameters of migratory birds. The widely used Cormack–Jolly–Seber capture–mark–recapture model has a number of disadvantages, the main one of which is the impossibility of discerning mortality and permanent emigration. The accuracy of survival estimates can be increased using a multistate capture–mark–recapture model, with the help of which it is possible to assess the survival of successful and unsuccessful birds separately. We used this model to estimate the apparent survival rates of adults in local populations of three ground-nesting passerines: Booted Warbler (Iduna caligata), Whinchat (Saxicola rubetra), and Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava), all breeding on abandoned agricultural lands. We studied the reproductive success of 472 marked pairs and analyzed individual capture histories of 814 birds. The previous reproductive success was found to influence significantly the apparent survival of adults. This relation was best expressed in the Yellow Wagtail (apparent survival of successful birds, φ = 0.39 ± 0.06, vs. that of unsuccessful birds, φ = 0.19 ± 0.06) and the Whinchat (apparent survival of successful birds, φ = 0.32 ± 0.05, vs. apparent survival of unsuccessful birds, φ = 0.10 ± 0.05), but a little lower in the Booted Warbler (apparent survival of successful birds, φ = 0.33 ± 0.17, vs. apparent survival of unsuccessful birds, φ = 0.16 ± 0.13). Unsuccessful individuals leave the study area for good, while most of the successful birds return there the next year. Thus, the apparent survival rate of passerines evaluated with capture–recapture models is determined to a considerable degree by the previous reproductive success within local populations.     

Home‐range size and habitat use of European Nightjars Caprimulgus europaeus nesting in a complex plantation‐forest landscape

In Europe, the consequences of commercial plantation management for birds of conservation concern are poorly understood. The European Nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus is a species of conservation concern across Europe due to population depletion through habitat loss. Pine plantation‐forest is now a key Nightjar nesting habitat, particularly in northwestern Europe, and increased understanding of foraging habitat selection is required. We radiotracked 31 Nightjars in an extensive (185‐km²) complex conifer plantation landscape in 2009 and 2010. Home‐range 95% kernels for females, paired males and unpaired males were an order of magnitude larger than song territories of paired males, emphasizing the importance of habitats beyond the song territory. Nightjars travelled a mean maximum distance of 747 m from the territory centre each night. Home‐range placement relative to landscape composition was examined by compositional analysis. Pre‐closure canopy forest (aged 5–10 years) was selected at all scales (MCP, 95% and 50% kernels), with newly planted forest (aged 0–4 years) also selected within 50% kernels. For telemetry fixes relative to habitat composition within 2 km of their territory centre, individuals again selected pre‐closure and newly planted forest, and also grazed grass heath. Open ungrazed habitat was not selected, with implications for open habitat planning for biodiversity conservation within public‐owned forests. Despite the Nightjars’ selection for younger growth, moth biomass was greater in older forest stands, suggesting that foraging site selection reflects ease of prey capture rather than prey abundance. Within large plantation‐forest landscapes, a variety of growth stages is important for this species and our results suggest that grazing of open habitats within and adjacent to forest will additionally benefit the European Nightjar.     

Decline in abundance and apparent survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Estimates of abundance and survivorship provide quantifiable measures to monitor populations and to define and understand their conservation status. This study investigated changes in abundance and survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence in the context of anthropogenic pressures and changing environmental conditions. A long‐term data set, consisting of 35 years of photo‐identification surveys and comprising more than 5,000 identifications of 507 individuals, formed the basis of this mark–recapture study. Based on model selection using corrected Akaike Information Criterion, the most parsimonious Cormack–Jolly–Seber model included a linear temporal trend in noncalf apparent survival rates with a sharp decline in the last 5 years of the study and a median survival rate of 0.946 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.910–0.967). To account for capture heterogeneity due to divergent patterns of site fidelity, agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to categorize individuals based on their annual and survey site fidelity indices. However, the negative trend in survivorship remained and was corroborated by a significant decline in the estimated super‐population size from 335 (95% CI 321–348) individuals in 2004–2010 to 291 (95% CI 270–312) individuals in 2010–2016. Concurrently, a negative trend was estimated in recruitment to the population, supported by a sharp decrease in the number of observed calves. Ship strikes and changes in prey availability are potential drivers of the observed decline in fin whale abundance. The combination of clustering methods with mark–recapture represents a flexible way to investigate the effects of site fidelity on demographic variables and is broadly applicable to other individual‐based studies.     

Effects of capture and video‐recording on the behavior and breeding success of Great Tits in urban and forest habitats

Behavioral research often involves capturing and video‐recording birds, but these procedures may have undesired effects on the behavior of birds that have rarely been quantified. In addition, birds in urban and more natural areas may differ in their sensitivity to disturbance. We examined the possible effects of both capturing, weighing and measuring, and taking a blood sample, and the presence of video‐cameras on the behavior of male and female Great Tits (Parus major) breeding in urban and forest habitats. Using a 2 × 2 block design, we compared the behavior and breeding success of parents that either were or were not captured on their nests a few days before behavioral observations, and of parents that either were or were not habituated to the presence of a concealed video‐recorder mounted on nest boxes. We found no significant effects of habituation to the camera on bird behavior, but males captured in their nest boxes were more vigilant and hesitated longer before entering nest boxes, and also had slightly lower provisioning rates than males that had not been captured. Captured females also tended to be more vigilant than females that had not been captured, but their provisioning rates were not affected. Capturing males also influenced the behavior of their non‐captured mates, but capturing females had no effect on the behavior of their non‐captured mates. We found no difference in the effects of capture on Great Tits in urban and forest habitats, and our treatments also had no effect on the mass, size, and survival of nestlings until fledging. Our results suggest that, for Great Tits, being captured results in sex‐dependent behavioral effects that can last for at least several days. As such, we suggest that the possibility of similar effects in other species of birds should be considered in behavioral studies where birds must be captured, and recommend either that behavioral data be collected before capturing birds or that all birds in a study should be captured and handled in a standardized way.     

Low leopard populations in protected areas of Maputaland: a consequence of poaching,habitat condition,abundance of prey,and a top predator

Identifying the primary causes affecting population densities and distribution of flagship species are necessary in developing sustainable management strategies for large carnivore conservation. We modeled drivers of spatial density of the common leopard (Panthera pardus) using a spatially explicit capture–recapture—Bayesian approach to understand their population dynamics in the Maputaland Conservation Unit, South Africa. We camera‐trapped leopards in four protected areas (PAs) of varying sizes and disturbance levels covering 198 camera stations. Ours is the first study to explore the effects of poaching level, abundance of prey species (small, medium, and large), competitors (lion Panthera leo and spotted hyenas Crocuta crocuta), and habitat on the spatial distribution of common leopard density. Twenty‐six male and 41 female leopards were individually identified and estimated leopard density ranged from 1.6 ± 0.62/100 km² (smallest PA—Ndumo) to 8.4 ± 1.03/100 km² (largest PA—western shores). Although dry forest thickets and plantation habitats largely represented the western shores, the plantation areas had extremely low leopard density compared to native forest. We found that leopard density increased in areas when low poaching levels/no poaching was recorded in dry forest thickets and with high abundance of medium‐sized prey, but decreased with increasing abundance of lion. Because local leopard populations are vulnerable to extinction, particularly in smaller PAs, the long‐term sustainability of leopard populations depend on developing appropriate management strategies that consider a combination of multiple factors to maintain their optimal habitats.     

Estimating survival of a streamside salamander: importance of temporary emigration,capture response,and location

Estimating survival for highly secretive aquatic animals, such as stream salamanders, presents numerous challenges. Salamanders often spend a considerable time in refugia where they are difficult to capture. Few studies have calculated vital rates for stream salamanders, yet the need is substantial as they are threatened by a wide range of land-use stressors, especially urban development. In this study, we used 34 months of continuous field samples collected at an urban and undisturbed stream and robust design mark-recapture analysis to evaluate the importance of temporary emigration, capture response, and location on survival estimates of the salamander Desmognathus fuscus. We constructed a set of candidate models incorporating combinations of time- and location-varying capture and recapture probabilities, capture responses, temporary emigration, and survival estimates and ranked models using Akaike’s Information Criterion. We found strong support for month-specific capture probabilities, recapture probabilities, temporary emigration and a negative behavioral response to capture in the majority of months. We found no support for variation in capture probabilities, recapture probabilities, and temporary emigration between locations. However, we found that location strongly influenced survival estimates. Specifically, survival estimates were significantly higher at the undisturbed site than at the urban site. Our results emphasize the importance of estimating capture probabilities, recapture probabilities, capture response, and temporary emigration when evaluating survival in highly secretive aquatic animals. Failure to account for these population parameters will likely yield biased estimates of survival in freshwater animal populations.     

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark–recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one‐in‐seventy‐year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long‐held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change.