Using avatar species to model the potential distribution of emerging invaders

Aim Anticipating the potential distributions of emerging invasive species is complicated by the tendency for species distribution models to perform better when both native and invasive range data are available for model development. If invasive range data are lacking, species models are liable to under‐estimate distributions for emerging invaders, particularly for species that are not at equilibrium with their native range environment due to historical factors, dispersal limitation and/or ecological interactions. We demonstrate the potential to use well‐quantified niche shifts from established ‘avatar’ (i.e. the remote or virtual manifestation of an entity) invaders to develop plausible distributions for data‐poor emerging invaders contingent on niche shifts of similar magnitude or character. Location Global. Methods Using the globally invasive crayfishes Pacifastacus leniusculus and Procambarus clarkii as our avatar invaders, we quantify how niche position, size and structure differs between native and total ranges using Mahalanobis distance (a measure of multivariate similarity) and the climate predictors of annual minimum and maximum air temperature. We then generalize patterns of niche shift from these species to the emerging crayfish invader Cherax quadricarinatus. Results Some patterns of niche shifts were similar for Pacifastacus leniusculus and Procambarus clarkii, but niche shifts were of considerably greater magnitude for P. clarkii. When a native range model for C. quadricarinatus was modified with generalized niche shifts similar to Pacifastacus leniusculus and Procambarus clarkii, the potential global distribution for this species increased considerably, including many areas not identified by the native range model. Main conclusions We illustrate the potential to use avatar invaders to provide cautionary, niche shift‐assuming species distribution models for emerging invaders. Many theoretical and applied implications of the avatar species concept require additional investigation, including the development of frameworks to select appropriate avatar species and evaluate the performance of avatar‐derived models for emerging invaders. Despite these research needs, we believe this concept will have considerable utility for predicting vulnerability to invasion by data‐poor species; this is a critical management need because shifting pathways of introduction and climate change will produce many novel, emerging invasive species in the future.     

Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

1. The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.
2. We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only. We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low-warming and high-warming conditions.
3. We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France. Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100.
4. Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat.

     

Crayfish invasion facilitates dispersal of plants and invertebrates by gulls

相似文献   

Indicators of movement and space use for two co-occurring invasive crayfish species

Red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) are two invasive freshwater species with a worldwide distribution. The objective of this work was to investigate how the two species move and use space in an area of recent coexistence. Simultaneously, we test the use of new tools and indices to describe their movement patterns. To accomplish this we performed a radio-tracking program within a river-type habitat during two different periods (September/October 2010 and June/July 2013). We used spatial analysis tools to map crayfish radio-location data with and without accounting for the curvature of the river. To assess the consistency of the direction of movement and of the distances traveled by crayfish, two indices were developed. To assess the habitat preferences of each species we applied Ivlev's Electivity Index and the Standardized Forage Ratio. Movement of P. clarkii and P. leniusculus differed. The average detected movement was 8.8 m day⁻¹ for P. clarkii and 17.5 m day⁻¹ for P. leniusculus. However, crayfish behavior ranged from almost complete immobility – sometimes during several days – to large movements, in half a day, up to a maximum of 255 m for P. clarkii and 461 m for P. leniusculus. The proportion of upstream or downstream movements was independent of the species and both species displayed no preference for either direction. The indices of consistency of movement showed a large interindividual variation. Species and period (2010 or 2013) affected the mean daily distance traveled, maximum observed distance from location of release and percentage of observations under vegetation cover. The Ivlev's Electivity Index and the Standardized Forage Ratio presented similar results. P. clarkii showed a preference for pool areas with riparian vegetation cover while P. leniusculus preferred riffle and pool areas with riparian vegetation cover. Our work provided new and valuable data for modeling the active dispersal of these two problematic invaders in a context of coexistence.     

Invasion of the shelter snatchers: behavioural plasticity in invasive red swamp crayfish,Procambarus clarkii

1. In many freshwater systems, competition for shelter plays an important role in determining the persistence of both native and alien species. The red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, is currently invading the native habitat of the signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus, in southern Oregon, and interspecific competition for shelter may be driving the species replacement in this region. 2. We designed a 2 × 3 factorial mesocosm experiment, with shelter density and species combination as factors, to investigate shelter occupancy and resource competition. Contrary to our predictions, the two crayfish species are equal competitors for shelter. Further, the invasive P. clarkii modified its shelter occupancy behaviour in the presence of the native P. leniusculus and has broader microhabitat preferences. 3. Specifically, we found that P. clarkii alters shelter occupancy and space use patterns when the two species occurred together, such that shelter use was identical between P. clarkii and P. leniusculus in mixed‐species treatments. In such treatments, both species increased their use of shelters when shelter density increased. When P. clarkii was alone, however, individuals did not alter shelter use as a function of shelter density, whereas P. leniusculus exhibited similar density‐dependent behaviour in both mixed‐ and single‐species treatments. 4. In a complementary field survey, we employed an ‘epicentre‐based’ design to sample two field sites. We observed patterns of microhabitat use and breadth for each species similar to those in our mesocosm experiment: the invasive P. clarkii was more abundant across different habitats and used a broader range of microhabitats than the native P. leniusculus. As such, we found that P. clarkii was more abundant across both field sites than the P. leniusculus, occupying microhabitats within and beyond the preferred range of P. leniusculus. Both field sites were affected by urban development and agriculture. 5. The use of microhabitats by both species was similar in the laboratory and the field. This study confirms that P. clarkii individuals can, and do, successfully occupy microhabitats preferred by P. leniusculus in the Willamette Valley. The results from our study may be relevant to other freshwater systems inhabited by P. clarkii and contribute to the understanding of ‘niche opportunity’, a concept which defines the environmental conditions that promote biological invasions.     

Niche differentiation among invasive crayfish and their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning

相似文献   

Early assessment of the impact of alien species: differential consequences of an invasive crayfish on adult and larval amphibians

Aim Early assessment of the impact of invasive alien species is crucial to set up timely management, but often the impact is evident when it is too late for action. We evaluated relationships between the alien crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, the distribution of native amphibians, and the abundance of their larvae. We assessed whether considering measures of reproductive success provide a more prompt measure of impact than considering just species distribution. Location One hundred and twenty‐five wetlands in Northern Italy, in an area recently invaded by P. clarkii. Methods We surveyed wetlands to assess the presence of breeding activity of amphibians and the distribution of P. clarkii. We measured the abundance of amphibian larvae before metamorphosis through pipe sampling. We built models analysing the relationships between amphibian and crayfish distribution, while taking into account spatial autocorrelation and environmental features. Analyses were performed at both the species level (generalized linear models and spatial eigenvector mapping) and community level (constrained redundancy analysis). Results In terms of breeding site distribution, only two amphibians (Lissotriton vulgaris and Hyla intermedia) were negatively associated with P. clarkii, while the relationships between other the species and P. clarkii were positive or not significant. However, larval abundance for all amphibian species was negatively associated with the alien crayfish. Analyses performed at community and single species levels yielded consistent results. Main conclusions Procambarus clarkii impacts amphibians through different processes. Newts probably avoid invaded wetlands for breeding. Other species attempt breeding in wetlands with crayfish, but suffer very low success. Considering distribution data alone would not provide a correct picture of the impact of this alien species; measures of reproductive success may allow a more accurate assessment of the impact.     

Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change

Background

Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.     

Future climate change will severely reduce habitat suitability of the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander

1. Being the largest extant amphibian in the world, the IUCN Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander Andrias davidianus is a charismatic species with great international public interest. While threats such as commercial overexploitation and habitat degradation have been extensively documented to affect natural populations of A. davidianus, still no information is available about the species sensitivity to climate change.
2. Here, we develop an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) for A. davidianus and projected its habitat suitability under present-day and future climate change scenarios. We based our SDMs on bioclimatic and topographic predictors, and recent (2012–2018) field-collected occurrence data across the whole distribution range of the species.
3. The ensemble SDMs exhibited good predictive capacity and suggested that slope, maximum temperature of warmest month, precipitation of driest month, and isothermality are the most influential predictors in determining distribution patterns in this species. The projections of our models point to a pronounced impact of climate changes over A. davidianus, with more than two-thirds of its suitable range expected to be lost in all scenarios of future climates tested.
4. In concert with the numerous other threats that are affecting this species, climate change poses a serious hindrance to the long-term survival of A. davidianus. We emphasise the urgent need of undertaking strict measures to manage this species and safeguard the few remaining available suitable habitats. We suggest that adaptive management strategies including designation of new reserves should be considered to mitigate the impacts of climate change on A. davidianus.

     

Multi‐faceted impacts of native and invasive alien decapod species on freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

相似文献   

Causes and consequences of crayfish extinction: Stream connectivity,habitat changes,alien species and ecosystem services

相似文献   

Feeding behaviour,predatory functional responses and trophic interactions of the invasive Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) and signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus)

相似文献   

Austropotamobius pallipes reduction vs. Procambarus clarkii spreading: Management implications

One of the main threats to native European crayfish is the spread of alien crayfish species that are immune carriers of the detrimental crayfish plague Aphanomyces astaci. In this study we analyzed both at a regional and at a local scale factors determining native and alien crayfish distribution in an area where the species Procambarus clarkii is currently spreading. We aim to understand which management strategies could prevent the extinction of native populations. We sampled 81 waterbodies in Lombardy (NW Italy) to assess the Austropotamobius pallipes complex and alien crayfish occurrence; we also monitored the only first order stream in our study area that we found to be currently inhabited by A. pallipes upstream and by P. clarkii downstream. A. pallipes generally occurred in small brooks, near the spring, and was linked to low periphyton abundance, while P. clarkii occurred in sites at lower altitudes, far from the spring area, mainly in lentic waterbodies with large widths; this allochthonous species was positively related to periphyton abundance. Our monitoring showed that physical barriers such as dams may prevent P. clarkii dispersal upstream. Our results confirm that A. pallipes and P. clarkii have different ecological requirements and show that, at least during the first years of invasion, P. clarkii spreading involves lowland or downstream altered sites. We suggest the need for management strategies maximizing connectivity among native populations, to avoid isolation, and promoting the separation of native populations from those of P. clarkii.     

Species-specific differences in dynamics of agonistic interactions may contribute to the competitive advantage of the invasive signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) over the native narrow-clawed crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus)

Species-specific differences in dynamics of agonistic interactions may influence the outcome of interspecific competition and potentially contribute to competitive advantage of one species over another. In this study, we compared the dynamics of agonistic interactions of one of the most successful crayfish invaders of European freshwater ecosystems, the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) and the widespread native European species currently undergoing range expansion in Croatia and Europe, the narrow-clawed crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus). Comparisons between P. leniusculus pairs and the A. leptodactylus pairs demonstrated significant differences in frequency and duration of agonistic encounters: P. leniusculus dyads engaged in fewer fights, but their duration was significantly longer. In staged interactions between size-matched interspecific pairs, agonistic behaviour of P. leniusculus individuals translated into dominance over their A. leptodactylus counterparts. This indicates that the success of P. leniusculus in agonistic encounters with the native competitor might stem from its readiness to continue fighting for a longer time period, and could lead to ecological advantages during niche competition even when facing a successful native crayfish species.     

Between‐lake variation in the trophic ecology of an invasive crayfish

相似文献   

Crayfish invading Europe: the case study of Procambarus clarkii

The red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, native to northeastern Mexico and southcentral USA, is today the dominant macroinvertebrate in several European countries. While the first introduction of this species into Spain is well-documented, little is known about its pathways of invasion and the reason for its rapid spread in several European countries. Study of the biology of the species has revealed a number of properties that makes this crayfish a successful invader. Procambarus clarkii exhibits properties characteristic of an r-selected species, including early maturity at small body size, rapid growth rates, large numbers of offspring at a given parental size, and relatively short life spans. It is also plastic in its life cycle, able to disperse widely in the habitat and to tolerate environmental extremes. It displays generalist and opportunistic feeding habits, consuming macrophytes and preying on amphibians. Procambarus clarkii can also replace indigenous crayfish by a combination of mechanisms, including competitive exclusion and transmission of the fungus-like Aphanomyces astaci, responsible for the crayfish plague. Finally, this species shows a wide behavioral flexibility when coping with new types of predators. The results of these studies, combined with the increasing information available in the scientific literature on this and other crayfish species, will help us understand invasions in this taxon and make predictions about the identity of future crayfish invaders.     

Home-field advantage: native signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) out consume newly introduced crayfishes for invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis)

The introduction of non-indigenous plants, animals and pathogens is one of today’s most pressing environmental challenges. Freshwater ecologists are challenged to predict the potential consequences of species invasions because many ecosystems increasingly support novel assemblages of native and non-native species that are likely to interact in complex ways. In this study we evaluated how native signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) and non-native red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and northern crayfish (Orconectes virilis) utilize a novel prey resource: the non-native Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis). All species are widespread in the United States, as well as globally, and recent surveys have discovered them co-occurring in lakes of Washington State. A series of mesocosm experiments revealed that crayfish are able to consume B. chinensis, despite the snail’s large size, thick outer shell and trapdoor defense behaviour. Crayfish exhibited size-selective predation whereby consumption levels decreased with increasing snail size; a common pattern among decapod predators. Comparison of prey profitability curves—defined as the yield of food (weight of snail tissue) per second of feeding time (the time taken to crack the shell and consume the contents)—suggests that small and very large snails may represent the most profitable prey choice. By contrast, previous studies have reported the opposite pattern for crayfish consumption on thin-shelled snails. For all snail size classes, we found that native P. leniusculus and invasive O. virilis consumed greater numbers of snails than invasive P. clarkii. Moreover, P. leniusculus consistently handled and consumed snails at a faster pace compared to both invasive crayfishes across the range of snail sizes examined in our study. These results suggest not only that B. chinensis is a suitable food source for crayfish, but also that native P. leniusculus may ultimately out-consume invasive crayfishes for this new prey resource.     

Associations between stream habitat characteristics and native and alien crayfish occurrence

Human mediated introductions of non-indigenous crayfish species (NICS) are responsible for their rapid colonisation of European freshwaters. The introduction of North American crayfish is furthermore linked to the spread of crayfish plague and the decline of indigenous crayfish species (ICS). As the management of ICS and NICS have become necessary, a detailed knowledge on their distribution and ecological requirements is needed. We studied the current range of native noble crayfish Astacus astacus and stone crayfish Austropotamobius torrentium, as well as alien signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus in Carinthia (Austria) and evaluated environmental and physical habitat features in streams with and without crayfish. Meanwhile, the loss of many ICS populations was recorded and alien P. leniusculus was found to be widespread in this region. Most of the habitat features of streams having crayfish differed significantly from sites lacking crayfish for at least one investigated native or alien species. Furthermore, multivariate and regression analyses showed specific differences in the habitat use of the investigated crayfish. Our results showed that the presence of alien P. leniusculus was associated with larger and smoother sloped lowland rivers, while the occurrence of the two native species was confined to smaller streams either at higher altitudes and with distinct physical habitat conditions (A. torrentium) or with moderate water temperatures (A. astacus). This study helps to identify potential refuge areas for the endangered native species and to predict the further spread of the most common non-native crayfish species in European streams.