Testing the role of climate in speciation: New methods and applications to squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes)

Climate may play important roles in speciation, such as causing the range fragmentation that underlies allopatric speciation (through niche conservatism) or driving divergence of parapatric populations along climatic gradients (through niche divergence). Here, we developed new methods to test the frequency of climate niche conservatism and divergence in speciation, and applied it to species pairs of squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes). We used a large‐scale phylogeny to identify 242 sister species pairs for analysis. From these, we selected all terrestrial allopatric pairs with sufficient occurrence records (n = 49 pairs) and inferred whether each originated via climatic niche conservatism or climatic niche divergence. Among the 242 pairs, allopatric pairs were most common (41.3%), rather than parapatric (19.4%), partially sympatric (17.7%), or fully sympatric species pairs (21.5%). Among the 49 selected allopatric pairs, most appeared to have originated via climatic niche divergence (61–76%, depending on the details of the methods). Surprisingly, we found greater climatic niche divergence between allopatric sister species than between parapatric pairs, even after correcting for geographic distance. We also found that niche divergence did not increase with time, further implicating niche divergence in driving lineage splitting. Overall, our results suggest that climatic niche divergence may often play an important role in allopatric speciation, and the methodology developed here can be used to address the generality of these findings in other organisms.     

Ecological divergence and speciation between lemur (Eulemur) sister species in Madagascar

Understanding ecological niche evolution over evolutionary timescales is crucial to elucidating the biogeographic history of organisms. Here, we used, for the first time, climate‐based ecological niche models (ENMs) to test hypotheses about ecological divergence and speciation processes between sister species pairs of lemurs (genus Eulemur) in Madagascar. We produced ENMs for eight species, all of which had significant validation support. Among the four sister species pairs, we found nonequivalent niches between sisters, varying degrees of niche overlap in ecological and geographic space, and support for multiple divergence processes. Specifically, three sister‐pair comparisons supported the null model that niches are no more divergent than the available background region. These findings are consistent with an allopatric speciation model, and for two sister pairs (E. collaris–E. cinereiceps and E. rufus–E. rufifrons), a riverine barrier has been previously proposed for driving allopatric speciation. However, for the fourth sister pair E. flavifrons–E. macaco, we found support for significant niche divergence, and consistent with their parapatric distribution on an ecotone and the lack of obvious geographic barriers, these findings most strongly support a parapatric model of speciation. These analyses thus suggest that various speciation processes have led to diversification among closely related Eulemur species.     

Cryptic niche conservatism among evolutionary lineages of an invasive lizard

Aim There is increasing evidence that the quality and breadth of ecological niches vary among individuals, populations, evolutionary lineages and therefore also across the range of a species. Sufficient knowledge about niche divergence among clades might thus be crucial for predicting the invasion potential of species. We tested for the first time whether evolutionary lineages of an invasive species vary in their climate niches and invasive potential. Furthermore, we tested whether lineage‐specific models show a better performance than combined models. Location Europe. Methods We used species distribution models (SDMs) based on climatic information at native and invasive ranges to test for intra‐specific niche divergence among mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) clades of the invasive wall lizard Podarcis muralis. Using DNA barcoding, we assigned 77 invasive populations in Central Europe to eight geographically distinct evolutionary lineages. Niche similarity among lineages was assessed and the predictive power of a combination of clade‐specific SDMs was compared with a combined SDM using the pooled records of all lineages. Results We recorded eight different invasive mtDNA clades in Central Europe. The analysed clades had rather similar realized niches in their native and invasive ranges, whereas inter‐clade niche differentiation was comparatively strong. However, we found only a weak correlation between geographic origin (i.e. mtDNA clade) and invasive occurrences. Clades with narrow realized niches still became successful invaders far outside their native range, most probably due to broader fundamental niches. The combined model using data for all invasive lineages achieved a much better prediction of the invasive potential. Conclusions Our results indicate that the observed niche differentiation among evolutionary lineages is mainly driven by niche realization and not by differences in the fundamental niches. Such cryptic niche conservatism might hamper the success of clade‐specific niche modelling. Cryptic niche conservatism may in general explain the invasion success of species in areas with apparently unsuitable climate.     

The niches of nuthatches affect their lineage evolution differently across latitude

Ecological niche evolution can promote or hinder the differentiation of taxa and determine their distribution. Niche‐mediated evolution may differ among climatic regimes, and thus, species that occur across a wide latitudinal range offer a chance to test these heterogeneous evolutionary processes. In this study, we examine (a) how many lineages have evolved across the continent‐wide range of the Eurasian nuthatch (Sitta europaea), (b) whether the lineages’ niches are significantly divergent or conserved and (c) how their niche evolution explains their geographic distribution. Phylogenetic reconstruction and ecological niche models (ENMs) showed that the Eurasian nuthatch contained six parapatric lineages that diverged within 2 Myr and did not share identical climatic niches. However, the niche discrepancy between these distinct lineages was relatively conserved compared with the environmental differences between their ranges and thus was unlikely to drive lineage divergence. The ENMs of southern lineages tended to cross‐predict with their neighbouring lineages whereas those of northern lineages generally matched with their abutting ranges. The coalescence‐based analyses revealed more stable populations for the southern lineages than the northern ones during the last glaciation cycle. In contrast to the overlapping ENMs, the smaller parapatric distribution suggests that the southern lineages might have experienced competitive exclusion to prevent them from becoming sympatric. On the other hand, the northern lineages have expanded their ranges and their current abutting distribution might have resulted from lineages adapting to different climatic conditions in allopatry. This study suggests that niche evolution may affect lineage distribution in different ways across latitude.     

LATITUDINAL VARIATION IN SPECIATION MECHANISMS IN FROGS

Speciation often has a strong geographical and environmental component, but the ecological factors that potentially underlie allopatric and parapatric speciation remain understudied. Two ecological mechanisms by which speciation may occur on geographic scales are allopatric speciation through niche conservatism and parapatric or allopatric speciation through niche divergence. A previous study on salamanders found a strong latitudinal pattern in the prevalence of these mechanisms, with niche conservatism dominating in temperate regions and niche divergence dominating in the tropics, and related this pattern to Janzen's hypothesis of greater climatic zonation between different elevations in the tropics. Here, we test for latitudinal patterns in speciation in a related but more diverse group of amphibians, the anurans. Using data from up to 79 sister-species pairs, we test for latitudinal variation in elevational and climatic overlap between sister species, and evaluate the frequency of speciation via niche conservatism versus niche divergence in relation to latitude. In contrast to salamanders, we find no tendency for greater niche divergence in the tropics or for greater niche conservatism in temperate regions. Although our results support the idea of greater climatic zonation in tropical regions, they show that this climatic pattern does not lead to straightforward relationships between speciation, latitude, and niche evolution.     

DOES NICHE DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANY ALLOPATRIC DIVERGENCE IN APHELOCOMA JAYS AS PREDICTED UNDER ECOLOGICAL SPECIATION?: INSIGHTS FROM TESTS WITH NICHE MODELS

The role of ecology in the origin of species has been the subject of long‐standing interest to evolutionary biologists. New sources of spatially explicit ecological data allow for large‐scale tests of whether speciation is associated with niche divergence or whether closely related species tend to be similar ecologically (niche conservatism). Because of the confounding effects of spatial autocorrelation of environmental variables, we generate null expectations for niche divergence for both an ecological‐niche modeling and a multivariate approach to address the question: do allopatrically distributed taxa occupy similar niches? In a classic system for the study of niche evolution—the Aphelocoma jays—we show that there is little evidence for niche divergence among Mexican Jay (A. ultramarina) lineages in the process of speciation, contrary to previous results. In contrast, Aphelocoma species that exist in partial sympatry in some regions show evidence for niche divergence. Our approach is widely applicable to the many cases of allopatric lineages in the beginning stages of speciation. These results do not support an ecological speciation model for Mexican Jay lineages because, in most cases, the allopatric environments they occupy are not significantly more divergent than expected under a null model.     

DOES NICHE CONSERVATISM PROMOTE SPECIATION? A CASE STUDY IN NORTH AMERICAN SALAMANDERS

Recent speciation research has generally focused on how lineages that originate in allopatry evolve intrinsic reproductive isolation, or how ecological divergence promotes nonallopatric speciation. However, the ecological basis of allopatric isolation, which underlies the most common geographic mode of speciation, remains poorly understood and largely unstudied. Here, we explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that promote speciation in Desmognathus and Plethodon salamanders from temperate eastern North America. Based on published molecular phylogenetic estimates and the degree of geographic range overlap among extant species, we find strong evidence for a role for geographic isolation in speciation. We then examine the relationship between climatic variation and speciation in 16 sister-taxon pairs using geographic information system maps of climatic variables, new methods for modeling species' potential geographic distributions, and data on geographic patterns of genetic variation. In contrast to recent studies in tropical montane regions, we found no evidence for parapatric speciation along climatic gradients. Instead, many montane sister taxa in the Appalachian Highlands inhabit similar climatic niches and seemingly are allopatric because they are unable to tolerate the climatic conditions in the intervening lowlands. This temporal and spatial-ecological pattern suggests that niche conservatism, rather than niche divergence, plays the primary role in promoting allopatric speciation and montane endemism in this species-rich group of vertebrates. Our results demonstrate that even the relatively subtle climatic differences between montane and lowland habitats in eastern North America may play a key role in the origin of new species.     

Niche divergence builds the case for ecological speciation in skinks of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex

Adaptation to different thermal environments has the potential to cause evolutionary changes that are sufficient to drive ecological speciation. Here, we examine whether climate‐based niche divergence in lizards of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex is consistent with the outcomes of such a process. Previous work on this group shows that a mechanical sexual barrier has evolved between species that differ mainly in body size and that the barrier may be a by‐product of selection for increased body size in lineages that have invaded xeric environments; however, baseline information on niche divergence among members of the group is lacking. We quantified the climatic niche using mechanistic physiological and correlative niche models and then estimated niche differences among species using ordination techniques and tests of niche overlap and equivalency. Our results show that the thermal niches of size‐divergent, reproductively isolated morphospecies are significantly differentiated and that precipitation may have been as important as temperature in causing increased shifts in body size in xeric habitats. While these findings alone do not demonstrate thermal adaptation or identify the cause of speciation, their integration with earlier genetic and behavioral studies provides a useful test of phenotype–environment associations that further support the case for ecological speciation in these lizards.     

Divergent lineages and conserved niches: using ecological niche modeling to examine the evolutionary patterns of the Nile monitor (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Varanus niloticus</Emphasis>)

Ecological niche modeling is a useful tool that can support phylogeographic analyses, offering insight into the evolutionary processes that have generated present-day patterns of biodiversity. Findings of ecological divergence across evolutionary lineages can be utilized to bolster inferences of parapatric or sympatric modes of speciation, and provide support for species-level classifications. Conversely, conserved ecological niches across evolutionary timescales are thought to have facilitated allopatric speciation. Here, we examined the climatic niche of three genetic lineages of the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) to better understand the processes involved in generating patterns of genetic variation, and to potentially clarify their taxonomic status. We built ecological niche models using genetically confirmed occurrence points from the three evolutionary lineages of V. niloticus, occupying the western, northern, and southern regions of Africa. Pairwise comparisons of climatic niche overlap provided evidence in support of niche conservatism across all V. niloticus lineages. These findings are consistent with an allopatric mode of differentiation. Furthermore, climatic niche conservatism could have played a role in isolating V. niloticus populations during historic climate oscillations, generating the observed genetic patterns across Africa.     

Multilocus and morphological analysis of south-eastern Iberian Wall lizards (Squamata,Podarcis)

The phylogenetic relationships among the wall lizards of the Podarcis hispanicus complex that inhabit the south-east (SE) of the Iberian Peninsula and other lineages of the complex remain unclear. In this study, four mitochondrial and two nuclear markers were used to study genetic relationships within this complex. The phylogenetic analyses based on mtDNA gene trees constructed with ML and BI, and a species tree using *BEAST support three divergent clades in this region: the Valencia, Galera and Albacete/Murcia lineages. These three lineages were also corroborated in species delimitation analyses based on mtDNA using bPTP, mPTP, GMYC, ABGD and BAPS. Bayesian inference species delimitation method (BPP) based on both nuclear data and a combined data set (mtDNA + nuclear) showed high posterior probabilities for these three SE lineages (≥0.94) and another Bayesian analysis (STACEY) based on combined data set recovered the same three groups in this region. Divergence time dating of the species tree provided an estimated divergence of the Galera lineage from the other SE group (Podarcis vaucheri, (Albacete/Murcia, Valencia)) at 12.48 Ma. During this period, the Betic–Rifian arc was isolated, which could have caused the isolation of the Galera form distributed to the south of the Betic Corridor. Although lizards from the Albacete/Murcia and Galera lineage are morphologically similar, they clearly represent distinct genetic lineages. The noteworthy separation of the Galera lineage enables us to conclude that this lineage must be considered as a new full species.     

Phylogeny and biogeography of the American live oaks (Quercus subsection Virentes): a genomic and population genetics approach

The nature and timing of evolution of niche differentiation among closely related species remains an important question in ecology and evolution. The American live oak clade, Virentes, which spans the unglaciated temperate and tropical regions of North America and Mesoamerica, provides an instructive system in which to examine speciation and niche evolution. We generated a fossil‐calibrated phylogeny of Virentes using RADseq data to estimate divergence times and used nuclear microsatellites, chloroplast sequences and an intron region of nitrate reductase (NIA‐i3) to examine genetic diversity within species, rates of gene flow among species and ancestral population size of disjunct sister species. Transitions in functional and morphological traits associated with ecological and climatic niche axes were examined across the phylogeny. We found the Virentes to be monophyletic with three subclades, including a southwest clade, a southeastern US clade and a Central American/Cuban clade. Despite high leaf morphological variation within species and transpecific chloroplast haplotypes, RADseq and nuclear SSR data showed genetic coherence of species. We estimated a crown date for Virentes of 11 Ma and implicated the formation of the Sea of Cortés in a speciation event ~5 Ma. Tree height at maturity, associated with fire tolerance, differs among the sympatric species, while freezing tolerance appears to have diverged repeatedly across the tropical–temperate divide. Sympatric species thus show evidence of ecological niche differentiation but share climatic niches, while allopatric and parapatric species conserve ecological niches, but diverge in climatic niches. The mode of speciation and/or degree of co‐occurrence may thus influence which niche axis plants diverge along.     

The importance (or lack thereof) of niche divergence to the maintenance of a northern species complex: the case of the long‐toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum Baird)

The relative importance of ecological vs. nonecological factors for the origin and maintenance of species is an open question in evolutionary biology. Young lineages – such as the distinct genetic groups that make up the ranges of many northern species – represent an opportunity to study the importance of ecological divergence during the early stages of diversification. Yet, few studies have examined the extent of niche divergence between lineages in previously glaciated regions and the role of ecology in maintaining the contact zones between them. In this study, we used tests of niche overlap in combination with ecological niche models to explore the extent of niche divergence between lineages of the long‐toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum Baird) species complex and to determine whether contact zones correspond to (divergent) niche limits. We found limited evidence for niche divergence between the different long‐toed salamander lineages, substantial overlap in the predicted distribution of suitable climatic space for all lineages and range limits that are independent of niche limits. These results raise questions as to the importance of ecological divergence to the development of this widespread species complex and highlight the potential for non‐ecological factors to play a more important role in the maintenance of northern taxa.     

Climate niche conservatism does not explain restricted distribution patterns in Tynanthus (Bignonieae,Bignoniaceae)

Studies on niche evolution allow us to establish how species niches have changed over time and to identify how long‐term evolutionary processes have led to present‐day species distributions. Here, we investigate the patterns of climatic niche evolution in Tynanthus (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae), a genus of narrowly distributed species. We test the hypothesis that niche conservatism has played an important role in the history of this group of Neotropical lianas. We perform univariate and multivariate comparisons between climatic niches of species and associated environmental data with information on phylogenetic relationships. We encountered considerable divergence in niches among species, indicating that niche conservatism in climatic variables does not seem to have played a key role in the history of the genus. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 95–109.     

Global realized niche divergence in the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis

Although of crucial importance for invasion biology and impact assessments of climate change, it remains widely unknown how species cope with and adapt to environmental conditions beyond their currently realized climatic niches (i.e., those climatic conditions existing populations are exposed to). The African clawed frog Xenopus laevis, native to southern Africa, has established numerous invasive populations on multiple continents making it a pertinent model organism to study environmental niche dynamics. In this study, we assess whether the realized niches of the invasive populations in Europe, South, and North America represent subsets of the species’ realized niche in its native distributional range or if niche shifts are traceable. If shifts are traceable, we ask whether the realized niches of invasive populations still contain signatures of the niche of source populations what could indicate local adaptations. Univariate comparisons among bioclimatic conditions at native and invaded ranges revealed the invasive populations to be nested within the variable range of the native population. However, at the same time, invasive populations are well differentiated in multidimensional niche space as quantified via n‐dimensional hypervolumes. The most deviant invasive population are those from Europe. Our results suggest varying degrees of realized niche shifts, which are mainly driven by temperature related variables. The crosswise projection of the hypervolumes that were trained in invaded ranges revealed the south‐western Cape region as likely area of origin for all invasive populations, which is largely congruent with DNA sequence data and suggests a gradual exploration of novel climate space in invasive populations.     

Divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow: a case study of Castanopsis carlesii (Fagaceae)

Local adaptation to different environments has the potential to maintain divergence between populations despite recurrent gene flow and is an important driver for generating biological diversity. In this study, we investigate the role of adaptation in the maintenance of two parapatric varieties of a forest tree. We used sequence variation of chloroplastic DNA and restriction site‐associated DNA to investigate the genetic structure of two varieties of Castanopsis carlesii in subtropical China and relate it to climatic variation. We used niche reconstruction methods to investigate niche differentiation between the two varieties and to estimate the past distribution of this species. A deep divergence was observed between the two varieties, but evidence of introgression and genetic admixture was detected in two phenotypically and geographically intermediate populations. Niche reconstruction suggests that the distribution of the two varieties was disjunct during periods of global cooling and that the two varieties occupy significantly different niches. The genetic structure was mainly driven by environmental factors, and 13 outlier loci under divergent selection were correlated with climatic variation. These results suggest that the two varieties evolved in allopatry and came back into secondary contact after the last glacial maximum and that they are an evolutionary example of divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow.     

Genetic admixture in multidimensional environmental space: asymmetrical niche similarity promotes gene flow in armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus)

We unite genetic data with a robust test of niche divergence to test the hypothesis that patterns of gene flow between two lineages of the nine-banded armadillo are influenced by their climatic niches. We collected Geographical Information System (GIS) data on climate using locality information from 111 individuals from two lineages that had associated genetic material. We tested whether niches of these lineages were more conserved or divergent than the background environments of their geographic ranges and found evidence for niche conservatism on two axes and no evidence for divergence on any axis. To address the role of niche similarity in gene flow, we genotyped the 111 individuals at five microsatellite loci and tested whether admixed individuals tended to be located in parts of multidimensional environmental space (E-space) shared between the two lineages. We observed an asymmetrical pattern of overlap, in which the West lineage's E-space was almost completely included inside East lineage's E-space. Genetic admixture levels were significantly higher in the West lineage and, for both lineages, in shared portions of E-space. This suggests that niche similarity can facilitate gene flow among disjunct groups with moderate-to-good dispersal capabilities, contrasting with the prevailing view of niche conservatism as a diversifying force.     

Using Ecological Niche Models and Niche Analyses to Understand Speciation Patterns: The Case of Sister Neotropical Orchid Bees

The role of past connections between the two major South American forested biomes on current species distribution has been recognized a long time ago. Climatic oscillations that further separated these biomes have promoted parapatric speciation, in which many species had their continuous distribution split, giving rise to different but related species (i.e., different potential distributions and realized niche features). The distribution of many sister species of orchid bees follow this pattern. Here, using ecological niche models and niche analyses, we (1) tested the role of ecological niche differentiation on the divergence between sister orchid-bees (genera Eulaema and Eufriesea) from the Amazon and Atlantic forests, and (2) highlighted interesting areas for new surveys. Amazonian species occupied different realized niches than their Atlantic sister species. Conversely, species of sympatric but distantly related Eulaema bees occupied similar realized niches. Amazonian species had a wide potential distribution in South America, whereas Atlantic Forest species were more limited to the eastern coast of the continent. Additionally, we identified several areas in need of future surveys. Our results show that the realized niche of Atlantic-Amazonian sister species of orchid bees, which have been previously treated as allopatric populations of three species, had limited niche overlap and similarity. These findings agree with their current taxonomy, which treats each of those populations as distinct valid species.     

Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species’ entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species’ entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.     

Evaluating mechanisms of diversification in a Guineo‐Congolian tropical forest frog using demographic model selection

The accumulation of biodiversity in tropical forests can occur through multiple allopatric and parapatric models of diversification, including forest refugia, riverine barriers and ecological gradients. Considerable debate surrounds the major diversification process, particularly in the West African Lower Guinea forests, which contain a complex geographic arrangement of topographic features and historical refugia. We used genomic data to investigate alternative mechanisms of diversification in the Gaboon forest frog, Scotobleps gabonicus, by first identifying population structure and then performing demographic model selection and spatially explicit analyses. We found that a majority of population divergences are best explained by allopatric models consistent with the forest refugia hypothesis and involve divergence in isolation with subsequent expansion and gene flow. These population divergences occurred simultaneously and conform to predictions based on climatically stable regions inferred through ecological niche modelling. Although forest refugia played a prominent role in the intraspecific diversification of S. gabonicus, we also find evidence for potential interactions between landscape features and historical refugia, including major rivers and elevational barriers such as the Cameroonian Volcanic Line. We outline the advantages of using genomewide variation in a model‐testing framework to distinguish between alternative allopatric hypotheses, and the pitfalls of limited geographic and molecular sampling. Although phylogeographic patterns are often species‐specific and related to life‐history traits, additional comparative studies incorporating genomic data are necessary for separating shared historical processes from idiosyncratic responses to environmental, climatic and geological influences on diversification.