Assessing temporal variations in diversification rates from phylogenies: estimation and hypothesis testing

A new method to estimate the diversification rate of a lineage from a phylogeny of recent species is presented. This uses survival models to analyse the ages of the species as derived from the phylogeny. Survival models can analyse missing data where the exact date of death is unknown (censoring). This approach allows us to include missing data (species not included in a detailed phylogenetic study) in the analysis, provided a minimum age is known for these species. Three models are presented, with emphasis on temporal variation in diversification rates. The maximum likelihood method and Akaike information criteria are used to derive estimators and tests of hypotheses. A simulation study demonstrates that the method is able to detect a temporal variation in diversification rate only when it is present, avoiding type I and type II errors. A lineage with ten species may be sufficient to detect a temporal variation in diversification rate even with 50 per cent of missing data. An application is presented with data from a phylogeny of birds of the genus Ramphocelus.     

Rapid diversification, incomplete isolation, and the "speciation clock" in North American salamanders (Genus Plethodon): testing the hybrid swarm hypothesis of rapid radiation

The history of life has been marked by several spectacular radiations, in which many lineages arise over a short period of time. A possible consequence of such rapid splitting in the recent past is that the intrinsic barriers that prevent gene flow between many species may have too little time to develop fully, leading to extensive hybridization among recently evolved lineages. The salamander genus Plethodon in eastern North America has been proposed as a possible example of this scenario, but without explicit statistical tests. In this paper, we present a nearly comprehensive phylogeny for the 45 extant species of eastern Plethodon, based on DNA sequences of mitochondrial (two genes, 1335 base pairs) and nuclear genes (two genes, up to 3481 base pairs). We then use this phylogeny to examine rates and patterns of diversification and hybridization. We find significantly rapid diversification within the glutinosus species group. Examining patterns of natural hybridization in light of the phylogeny shows considerable hybridization within this clade, including introgression between species that are morphologically distinct and distantly related. Reproductive isolation increases over time and may be very weak among the most recently diverged species. These results suggest that the origin of species and the evolution of intrinsic reproductive isolating mechanisms, rather than being synonymous, may be decoupled in some cases (i.e., rapid origin of lineages outstrips the "speciation clock"). In contrast to the conclusions of a recent review of adaptive radiation and hybridization, we suggest that extensive hybridization sometimes may be a consequence, rather than a cause, of rapid diversification.     

Likelihood methods for detecting temporal shifts in diversification rates

Maximum likelihood is a potentially powerful approach for investigating the tempo of diversification using molecular phylogenetic data. Likelihood methods distinguish between rate-constant and rate-variable models of diversification by fitting birth-death models to phylogenetic data. Because model selection in this context is a test of the null hypothesis that diversification rates have been constant over time, strategies for selecting best-fit models must minimize Type I error rates while retaining power to detect rate variation when it is present. Here I examine model selection, parameter estimation, and power to reject the null hypothesis using likelihood models based on the birth-death process. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) has often been used to select among diversification models; however, I find that selecting models based on the lowest AIC score leads to a dramatic inflation of the Type I error rate. When appropriately corrected to reduce Type I error rates, the birth-death likelihood approach performs as well or better than the widely used gamma statistic, at least when diversification rates have shifted abruptly over time. Analyses of datasets simulated under a range of rate-variable diversification scenarios indicate that the birth-death likelihood method has much greater power to detect variation in diversification rates when extinction is present. Furthermore, this method appears to be the only approach available that can distinguish between a temporal increase in diversification rates and a rate-constant model with nonzero extinction. I illustrate use of the method by analyzing a published phylogeny for Australian agamid lizards.     

Species and shape diversification are inversely correlated among gobies and cardinalfishes (Teleostei: Gobiiformes)

Gobies and their relatives are significant components of nearshore marine, estuarine, and freshwater fish faunas in both tropical and temperate habitats worldwide. They are remarkable for their ability to adapt to and diversify in a wide range of environments. Among gobiiform clades, species diversities vary widely, ranging from two species in Kurtidae to more than 1,000 species in Gobiidae. There is also great variation in head and body shape and in environmental preferences (fresh, brackish, or marine habitats). In this study, I used a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny, coupled with morphometric and comparative analyses, to examine evolutionary rates of both speciation and morphological diversification among gobiiform lineages. Projection of the phylogeny onto a shape-derived morphospace shows that Gobioidei is morphometrically distinct from its sister taxon Apogonoidei, but that families within Gobioidei overlap in morphospace. Analysis of species diversification rates indicates that three rate shifts have occurred over the evolutionary history of Gobiiformes. Relative to the other lineages, Kurtidae has exhibited a slowdown in speciation, whereas both Apogonidae and Gobiidae?+?Gobionellidae have experienced an increase in diversification. Comparative analyses show that in Apogonidae and Gobiidae?+?Gobionellidae, increased speciation is correlated with diminished rates of morphological diversification, differently manifested in either clade and among the various sublineages. The elevation in speciation rates and diminishment in rates of morphological change in both Apogonidae and the clade Gobiidae?+?Gobionellidae are correlated with shifts to oceanic habitats from freshwater. This pattern is the complement to that seen across the global radiation of acanthomorph fishes in which a decrease in species diversification is associated with an increase in morphological disparity.     

Do habitat shifts drive diversification in teleost fishes? An example from the pufferfishes (Tetraodontidae)

Habitat shifts are implicated as the cause of many vertebrate radiations, yet relatively few empirical studies quantify patterns of diversification following colonization of new habitats in fishes. The pufferfishes (family Tetraodon‐tidae) occur in several habitats, including coral reefs and freshwater, which are thought to provide ecological opportunity for adaptive radiation, and thus provide a unique system for testing the hypothesis that shifts to new habitats alter diversification rates. To test this hypothesis, we sequenced eight genes for 96 species of pufferfishes and closely related porcupine fishes, and added 19 species from sequences available in GenBank. We time‐calibrated the molecular phylogeny using three fossils, and performed several comparative analyses to test whether colonization of novel habitats led to shifts in the rate of speciation and body size evolution, central predictions of clades experiencing ecological adaptive radiation. Colonization of freshwater is associated with lower rates of cladogenesis in pufferfishes, although these lineages also exhibit accelerated rates of body size evolution. Increased rates of cladogenesis are associated with transitions to coral reefs, but reef lineages surprisingly exhibit significantly lower rates of body size evolution. These results suggest that ecological opportunity afforded by novel habitats may be limited for pufferfishes due to competition with other species, constraints relating to pufferfish life history and trophic ecology, and other factors.     

Statistical analysis of diversification with species traits

Testing whether some species traits have a significant effect on diversification rates is central in the assessment of macroevolutionary theories. However, we still lack a powerful method to tackle this objective. I present a new method for the statistical analysis of diversification with species traits. The required data are observations of the traits on recent species, the phylogenetic tree of these species, and reconstructions of ancestral values of the traits. Several traits, either continuous or discrete, and in some cases their interactions, can be analyzed simultaneously. The parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. The statistical significance of the effects in a model can be tested with likelihood ratio tests. A simulation study showed that past random extinction events do not affect the Type I error rate of the tests, whereas statistical power is decreased, though some power is still kept if the effect of the simulated trait on speciation is strong. The use of the method is illustrated by the analysis of published data on primates. The analysis of these data showed that the apparent overall positive relationship between body mass and species diversity is actually an artifact due to a clade-specific effect. Within each clade the effect of body mass on speciation rate was in fact negative. The present method allows to take both effects (clade and body mass) into account simultaneously.     

Transcontinental dispersal,ecological opportunity and origins of an adaptive radiation in the Neotropical catfish genus Hypostomus (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

Ecological opportunity is often proposed as a driver of accelerated diversification, but evidence has been largely derived from either contemporary island radiations or the fossil record. Here, we investigate the potential influence of ecological opportunity on a transcontinental radiation of South American freshwater fishes. We generate a species‐dense, time‐calibrated molecular phylogeny for the suckermouth armored catfish subfamily Hypostominae, with a focus on the species‐rich and geographically widespread genus Hypostomus. We use the resulting chronogram to estimate ancestral geographical ranges, infer historical rates of cladogenesis and diversification in habitat and body size and shape, and test the hypothesis that invasions of previously unoccupied river drainages accelerated evolution and contributed to adaptive radiation. Both the subfamily Hypostominae and the included genus Hypostomus originated in the Amazon/Orinoco ecoregion. Hypostomus subsequently dispersed throughout tropical South America east of the Andes Mountains. Consequent to invasion of the peripheral, low‐diversity Paraná River basin in southeastern Brazil approximately 12.5 Mya, Paraná lineages of Hypostomus, experienced increased rates of cladogenesis and ecological and morphological diversification. Contemporary lineages of Paraná Hypostomus are less species rich but more phenotypically diverse than their congeners elsewhere. Accelerated speciation and morphological diversification rates within Paraná basin Hypostomus are consistent with adaptive radiation. The geographical remoteness of the Paraná River basin, its recent history of marine incursion, and its continuing exclusion of many species that are widespread in other tropical South American rivers suggest that ecological opportunity played an important role in facilitating the observed accelerations in diversification.     

Rapid allopatric speciation in logperch darters (Percidae: Percina)

Theory predicts that clades diversifying via sympatric speciation will exhibit high diversification rates. However, the expected rate of diversification in clades characterized by allopatric speciation is less clear. Previous studies have documented significantly higher speciation rates in freshwater fish clades diversifying via sympatric versus allopatric modes, leading to suggestions that the geographic pattern of speciation can be inferred solely from knowledge of the diversification rate. We tested this prediction using an example from darters, a clade of approximately 200 species of freshwater fishes endemic to eastern North America. A resolved phylogeny was generated using mitochondrial DNA gene sequences for logperches, a monophyletic group of darters composed of 10 recognized species. Divergence times among logperch species were estimated using a fossil calibrated molecular clock in centrarchid fishes, and diversification rates in logperches were estimated using several methods. Speciation events in logperches are recent, extending from 4.20 +/- 1.06 million years ago (mya) to 0.42 +/- 0.22 mya, with most speciation events occurring in the Pleistocene. Diversification rates are high in logperches, at some nodes exceeding rates reported for well-studied adaptive radiations such as Hawaiian silverswords. The geographic pattern of speciation in logperches was investigated by examining the relationship between degree of sympatry and the absolute age of the contrast, with the result that diversification in logperches appears allopatric. The very high diversification rate observed in the logperch phylogeny is more similar to freshwater fish clades thought to represent examples of sympatric speciation than to clades representing allopatric speciation. These results demonstrate that the geographic mode of speciation for a clade cannot be inferred from the diversification rate. The empirical observation of high diversification rates in logperches demonstrates that allopatric speciation can occur rapidly.     

DO FRESHWATER FISHES DIVERSIFY FASTER THAN MARINE FISHES? A TEST USING STATE‐DEPENDENT DIVERSIFICATION ANALYSES AND MOLECULAR PHYLOGENETICS OF NEW WORLD SILVERSIDES (ATHERINOPSIDAE)

Freshwater habitats make up only ～0.01% of available aquatic habitat and yet harbor 40% of all fish species, whereas marine habitats comprise >99% of available aquatic habitat and have only 60% of fish species. One possible explanation for this pattern is that diversification rates are higher in freshwater habitats than in marine habitats. We investigated diversification in marine and freshwater lineages in the New World silverside fish clade Menidiinae (Teleostei, Atherinopsidae). Using a time‐calibrated phylogeny and a state‐dependent speciation–extinction framework, we determined the frequency and timing of habitat transitions in Menidiinae and tested for differences in diversification parameters between marine and freshwater lineages. We found that Menidiinae is an ancestrally marine lineage that independently colonized freshwater habitats four times followed by three reversals to the marine environment. Our state‐dependent diversification analyses showed that freshwater lineages have higher speciation and extinction rates than marine lineages. Net diversification rates were higher (but not significant) in freshwater than marine environments. The marine lineage‐through time (LTT) plot shows constant accumulation, suggesting that ecological limits to clade growth have not slowed diversification in marine lineages. Freshwater lineages exhibited an upturn near the recent in their LTT plot, which is consistent with our estimates of high background extinction rates. All sequence data are currently being archived on Genbank and phylogenetic trees archived on Treebase.     

A conceptual and statistical framework for adaptive radiations with a key role for diversity dependence

Abstract In this article we propose a new framework for studying adaptive radiations in the context of diversity-dependent diversification. Diversity dependence causes diversification to decelerate at the end of an adaptive radiation but also plays a key role in the initial pulse of diversification. In particular, key innovations (which in our definition include novel traits as well as new environments) may cause decoupling of the diversity-dependent dynamics of the innovative clade from the diversity-dependent dynamics of its ancestral clade. We present a likelihood-based inference method to test for decoupling of diversity dependence using molecular phylogenies. The method, which can handle incomplete phylogenies, identifies when the decoupling took place and which diversification parameters are affected. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the molecular phylogeny of the North American clade of the legume tribe Psoraleeae (47 extant species, of which 4 are missing). Two diversification rate shifts were previously identified for this clade; our analysis shows that the first, positive shift can be associated with decoupling of two Pediomelum subgenera from the other Psoraleeae lineages, while we argue that the second, negative shift can be attributed to speciation being protracted. The latter explanation yields nonzero extinction rates, in contrast to previous findings. Our framework offers a new perspective on macroevolution: new environments and novel traits (ecological opportunity) and diversity dependence (ecological limits) cannot be considered separately.     

Trait diversity on the phylogeny of cerrado woody species

During the Neogene, the Brazilian cerrado became established as a large‐scale vegetation type. Cerrado lineages started to diversify less than 10 million years ago, coinciding with the rise to dominance of flammable C₄ grasses and the expansion of the savanna biome. Cerrado lineages are strongly associated with adaptations to fire and have sister groups in fire‐free nearby forests, implying that the cerrado formed in situ via adaptive shifts to resist fire. By including phylogeny into the analysis of biological traits, we investigated trait diversity of cerrado woody species in a phylogenetic context, sampling a cerrado site in central Brazil. Decomposing trait diversity along the nodes of a phylogenetic tree of cerrado woody species, we found that the rate of trait diversification was higher in the past, coinciding with the major species diversification of angiosperms in mid‐Cretaceous, long before the cerrado originated. Some more recent adaptive shifts to resist fire, however, must have occurred during the origin and expansion of the cerrado woody flora. Analysing values of each trait separately at the tips of the phylogenetic tree, we found that most trait values were randomly distributed, probably because we analysed only species that had already been filtered by drought, fire, and soil. Analysing values of all traits simultaneously at the tips, we found close to root events and broad, macro‐evolutionary patterns, called ‘global structures’, opposing some lineages, especially Fabaceae and Myrtaceae, with different ecological strategies. Fabaceae presented compound, large, tender leaves, with high nitrogen content due to symbiosis with nitrogen‐fixing bacteria, and Myrtaceae presented simple, small, tough leaves, with low nitrogen and high potassium content. We also found relatively recent events that induced divergence of the evolutionary strategies close to the tips, called ‘local structures’, involving more recent changes in most lineages.     

Diversity versus disparity and the radiation of modern cetaceans

Modern whales are frequently described as an adaptive radiation spurred by either the evolution of various key innovations (such as baleen or echolocation) or ecological opportunity following the demise of archaic whales. Recent analyses of diversification rate shifts on molecular phylogenies raise doubts about this interpretation since they find no evidence of increased speciation rates during the early evolution of modern taxa. However, one of the central predictions of ecological adaptive radiation is rapid phenotypic diversification, and the tempo of phenotypic evolution has yet to be quantified in cetaceans. Using a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny of extant cetaceans and a morphological dataset on size, we find evidence that cetacean lineages partitioned size niches early in the evolutionary history of neocetes and that changes in cetacean size are consistent with shifts in dietary strategy. We conclude that the signature of adaptive radiations may be retained within morphological traits even after equilibrium diversity has been reached and high extinction or fluctuations in net diversification have erased any signature of an early burst of diversification in the structure of the phylogeny.     

Extinction, ecological opportunity, and the origins of global snake diversity

Snake diversity varies by at least two orders of magnitude among extant lineages, with numerous groups containing only one or two species, and several young clades exhibiting exceptional richness (>700 taxa). With a phylogeny containing all known families and subfamilies, we find that these patterns cannot be explained by background rates of speciation and extinction. The majority of diversity appears to derive from a radiation within the superfamily Colubroidea, potentially stemming from the colonization of new areas and the evolution of advanced venom-delivery systems. In contrast, negative relationships between clade age, clade size, and diversification rate suggest the potential for possible bias in estimated diversification rates, interpreted by some recent authors as support for ecologically mediated limits on diversity. However, evidence from the fossil record indicates that numerous lineages were far more diverse in the past, and that extinction has had an important impact on extant diversity patterns. Thus, failure to adequately account for extinction appears to prevent both rate- and diversity-limited models from fully characterizing richness dynamics in snakes. We suggest that clade-level extinction may provide a key mechanism for explaining negative or hump-shaped relationships between clade age and diversity, and the prevalence of ancient, species-poor lineages in numerous groups.     

Phylogenetic analysis of ecomorphological divergence, community structure, and diversification rates in dusky salamanders (Plethodontidae: Desmognathus)

An important dimension of adaptive radiation is the degree to which diversification rates fluctuate or remain constant through time. Focusing on plethodontid salamanders of the genus Desmognathus, we present a novel synthetic analysis of phylogeographic history, rates of ecomorphological evolution and species accumulation, and community assembly in an adaptive radiation. Dusky salamanders are highly variable in life history, body size, and ecology, with many endemic lineages in the southern Appalachian Highlands of eastern North America. Our results show that life-history evolution had important consequences for the buildup of plethodontid-salamander species richness and phenotypic disparity in eastern North America, a global hot spot of salamander biodiversity. The origin of Desmognathus species with aquatic larvae was followed by a high rate of lineage accumulation, which then gradually decreased toward the present time. The peak period of lineage accumulation in the group coincides with evolutionary partitioning of lineages with aquatic larvae into seepage, stream-edge, and stream microhabitats. Phylogenetic simulations demonstrate a strong correlation between morphology and microhabitat ecology independent of phylogenetic effects and suggest that ecomorphological changes are concentrated early in the radiation of Desmognathus. Deep phylogeographic fragmentation within many codistributed ecomorph clades suggests long-term persistence of ecomorphological features and stability of endemic lineages and communities through multiple climatic cycles. Phylogenetic analyses of community structure show that ecomorphological divergence promotes the coexistence of lineages and that repeated, independent evolution of microhabitat-associated ecomorphs has a limited role in the evolutionary assembly of Desmognathus communities. Comparing and contrasting our results to other adaptive radiations having different biogeographic histories, our results suggest that rates of diversification during adaptive radiation are intimately linked to the degree to which community structure persists over evolutionary time.     

Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation*

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.     

Aging asexual lineages and the evolutionary maintenance of sex

Finite populations of asexual and highly selfing species suffer from a reduced efficacy of selection. Such populations are thought to decline in fitness over time due to accumulating slightly deleterious mutations or failing to adapt to changing conditions. These within‐population processes that lead nonrecombining species to extinction may help maintain sex and outcrossing through species level selection. Although inefficient selection is proposed to elevate extinction rates over time, previous models of species selection for sex assumed constant diversification rates. For sex to persist, classic models require that asexual species diversify at rates lower than sexual species; the validity of this requirement is questionable, both conceptually and empirically. We extend past models by allowing asexual lineages to decline in diversification rates as they age, that is nonrecombining lineages “senesce” in diversification rates. At equilibrium, senescing diversification rates maintain sex even when asexual lineages, at young ages, diversify faster than their sexual progenitors. In such cases, the age distribution of asexual lineages contains a peak at intermediate values rather than showing the exponential decline predicted by the classic model. Coexistence requires only that the average rate of diversification in asexuals be lower than that of sexuals.     

Phylogenetic discordance at the species boundary: comparative gene genealogies among rapidly radiating Heliconius butterflies

Recent adaptive radiations provide excellent model systems for understanding speciation, but rapid diversification can cause problems for phylogenetic inference. Here we use gene genealogies to investigate the phylogeny of recent speciation in the heliconiine butterflies. We sequenced three gene regions, intron 3 ( approximately 550 bp) of sex-linked triose-phosphate isomerase (Tpi), intron 3 ( approximately 450 bp) of autosomal mannose-phosphate isomerase (Mpi), and 1,603 bp of mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunits I and II (COI and COII), for 37 individuals from 25 species of Heliconius and related genera. The nuclear intron sequences evolved at rates similar to those of mitochondrial coding sequences, but the phylogenetic utility of introns was restricted to closely related geographic populations and species due to high levels of indel variation. For two sister species pairs, Heliconius erato-Heliconius himera and Heliconius melpomene-Heliconius cydno, there was highly significant discordance between the three genes. At mtDNA and Tpi, the hypotheses of reciprocal monophyly and paraphyly of at least one species with respect to its sister could not be distinguished. In contrast alleles sampled from the third locus, Mpi, showed polyphyletic relationships between both species pairs. In all cases, recent coalescence of mtDNA lineages within species suggests that polyphyly of nuclear genes is not unexpected. In addition, very similar alleles were shared between melpomene and cydno, implying recent gene flow. Our finding of discordant genealogies between genes is consistent with models of adaptive speciation with ongoing gene flow and highlights the need for multiple locus comparisons to resolve phylogeny among closely related species.     

Testing for temporal variation in diversification rates when sampling is incomplete and nonrandom

A common pattern found in phylogeny-based empirical studies of diversification is a decrease in the rate of lineage accumulation toward the present. This early-burst pattern of cladogenesis is often interpreted as a signal of adaptive radiation or density-dependent processes of diversification. However, incomplete taxonomic sampling is also known to artifactually produce patterns of rapid initial diversification. The Monte Carlo constant rates (MCCR) test, based upon Pybus and Harvey's gamma (γ)-statistic, is commonly used to accommodate incomplete sampling, but this test assumes that missing taxa have been randomly pruned from the phylogeny. Here we use simulations to show that preferentially sampling disparate lineages within a clade can produce severely inflated type-I error rates of the MCCR test, especially when taxon sampling drops below 75%. We first propose two corrections for the standard MCCR test, the proportionally deeper splits that assumes missing taxa are more likely to be recently diverged, and the deepest splits only MCCR that assumes that all missing taxa are the youngest lineages in the clade, and assess their statistical properties. We then extend these two tests into a generalized form that allows the degree of nonrandom sampling (NRS)to be controlled by a scaling parameter, α. This generalized test is then applied to two recent studies. This new test allows systematists to account for nonrandom taxonomic sampling when assessing temporal patterns of lineage diversification in empirical trees. Given the dramatic affect NRS can have on the behavior of the MCCR test, we argue that evaluating the sensitivity of this test to NRS should become the norm when investigating patterns of cladogenesis in incompletely sampled phylogenies.     

Heterogeneity in the rate of molecular sequence evolution substantially impacts the accuracy of detecting shifts in diversification rates

As species richness varies along the tree of life, there is a great interest in identifying factors that affect the rates by which lineages speciate or go extinct. To this end, theoretical biologists have developed a suite of phylogenetic comparative methods that aim to identify where shifts in diversification rates had occurred along a phylogeny and whether they are associated with some traits. Using these methods, numerous studies have predicted that speciation and extinction rates vary across the tree of life. In this study, we show that asymmetric rates of sequence evolution lead to systematic biases in the inferred phylogeny, which in turn lead to erroneous inferences regarding lineage diversification patterns. The results demonstrate that as the asymmetry in sequence evolution rates increases, so does the tendency to select more complicated models that include the possibility of diversification rate shifts. These results thus suggest that any inference regarding shifts in diversification pattern should be treated with great caution, at least until any biases regarding the molecular substitution rate have been ruled out.