Sexual size dimorphism in island plants: the niche variation hypothesis and insular size changes

The niche variation hypothesis predicts insular populations exhibit increased sexual size dimorphism (SSD), to minimize intraspecific competition. Although many animal taxa conform to this prediction, insular patterns of SSD have yet to be investigated in plants. Here, we tested for differences in SSD of dioecious plants that colonised four island groups (Kermadec, Three Kings, Chatham and Auckland Islands) from New Zealand. Using herbarium collections, we quantified leaf and stem sizes of 263 individuals from 28 dioecious taxa. We developed a novel analytical technique to explore changes in the direction of SSD on islands. Lastly, we tested for evolutionary size changes of male and female plants on islands. The degree of SSD did not vary predictably between insular and mainland taxa, contrary to predictions of the niche variation hypothesis. Furthermore, the direction of SSD was not predictable on islands, while it was consistently female biased on the mainland. Our results suggest that selection favours increased size of both sexes on islands and that SSD is unpredictable for insular plants.     

Allometry of sexual size dimorphism in dioecious plants: do plants obey Rensch's rule?

Rensch's rule refers to a pattern in sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in which SSD decreases with body size when females are the larger sex and increases with body size when males are the larger sex. Many animal taxa conform to Rensch's rule, but it has yet to be investigated in plants. Using herbarium collections from New Zealand, we characterized the size of leaves and stems of 297 individuals from 38 dioecious plant species belonging to three distantly related phylogenetic lineages. Statistical comparisons of leaf sizes between males and females showed evidence for Rensch's rule in two of the three lineages, indicating SSD decreases with leaf size when females produce larger leaves and increases with leaf size when males produce larger leaves. A similar pattern in SSD was observed for stem sizes. However, in this instance, females of small-stemmed species produced much larger stems than did males, but as stem sizes increased, SSD often disappeared. We hypothesize that sexual dimorphism in stem sizes results from selection for larger stems in females, which must provide mechanical support for seeds, fruits, and dispersal vectors, and that scaling relationships in leaf sizes result from correlated evolution with stem sizes. The overall results suggest that selection for larger female stem sizes to support the weight of offspring can give rise to Rensch's rule in dioecious plants.     

Slaying dragons: limited evidence for unusual body size evolution on islands

Aim Island taxa often attain forms outside the range achieved by mainland relatives. Body size evolution of vertebrates on islands has therefore received much attention, with two seemingly conflicting patterns thought to prevail: (1) islands harbour animals of extreme size, and (2) islands promote evolution towards medium body size (‘the island rule’). We test both hypotheses using body size distributions of mammal, lizard and bird species. Location World‐wide. Methods We assembled body size and insularity datasets for the world’s lizards, birds and mammals. We compared the frequencies with which the largest or smallest member of a group is insular with the frequencies expected if insularity is randomly assigned within groups. We tested whether size extremes on islands considered across mammalian phylogeny depart from a null expectation under a Brownian motion model. We tested the island rule by comparing insular and mainland members of (1) a taxonomic level and (2) mammalian sister species, to determine if large insular animals tend to evolve smaller body sizes while small ones evolve larger sizes. Results The smallest species in a taxon (order, family or genus) are insular no more often than would be expected by chance in all groups. The largest species within lizard families and bird genera (but no other taxonomic levels) are insular more often than expected. The incidence of extreme sizes in insular mammals never departs from the null, except among extant genera, where gigantism is marginally less common than expected under a Brownian motion null. Mammals follow the island rule at the genus level and when comparing sister species and clades. This appears to be driven mainly by insular dwarfing in large‐bodied lineages. A similar pattern in birds is apparent for species within orders. However, lizards follow the converse pattern. Main conclusions The popular misconception that islands have more than their fair share of size extremes may stem from a greater tendency to notice gigantism and dwarfism when they occur on islands. There is compelling evidence for insular dwarfing in large mammals, but not in other taxa, and little evidence for the second component of the island rule – gigantism in small‐bodied taxa.     

Size changes in island plants: independent trait evolution in Alyxia ruscifolia (Apocynaceae) on Lord Howe Island

Species that are endemic to isolated islands often differ dramatically in size from their mainland relatives, for reasons that are poorly understood. While decades of research have sought to better understand insular size changes in animals, far fewer studies have investigated insular size changes in plants. Here, I test for changes in plant stature, seed size and leaf area in a woody shrub (Alyxia ruscifolia, Apocynaceae), which inhabits both the continent of Australia, and Lord Howe Island, a subtropical island located 600 km off Australia's east coast. Results showed that island plants became reproductively mature at earlier stages of ontogeny than mainland plants, and that mature plants were taller on the mainland, providing a rare example of dwarfism in plants. Conversely, island plants produced larger seeds, which might make them more competitive as seedlings. Seeds produced by island plants were also less circular and more oblong in shape than their mainland counterparts, perhaps to facilitate their dispersal by avian frugivores with limited gape sizes. Lastly, island and mainland plants had similar average leaf sizes. However, juvenile plants on the mainland produced smaller, more needle‐shaped leaves with larger terminal spines relative to adult plants, which may help protect them against large, ground‐dwelling herbivores. On the other hand, island plants showed weaker ontogenetic shifts in leaf morphology in the absence of large herbivores. When interpreted jointly, results indicate that stature, seed size and leaf area are on separate evolutionary trajectories in A. ruscifolia, which appear to be determined by a complex suite of disparate selection pressures between Lord Howe Island and the mainland.     

One size does not fit all: no evidence for an optimal body size on islands

Aim Optimal body size theories predict that large clades have a single, optimal, body size that serves as an evolutionary attractor, with the full body size spectrum of a clade resulting from interspecific competition. Because interspecific competition is believed to be reduced on islands, such theories predict that insular animals should be closer to the optimal size than mainland animals. We test the resulting prediction that insular clade members should therefore have narrower body size ranges than their mainland relatives. Location World‐wide. Methods We used body sizes and a phylogenetic tree of 4004 mammal species, including more than 200 species that went extinct since the last ice age. We tested, in a phylogenetically explicit framework, whether insular taxa converge on an optimal size and whether insular clades have narrow size ranges. Results We found no support for any of the predictions of the optimal size theory. No specific size serves as an evolutionary attractor. We did find consistent evidence that large (> 10 kg) mammals grow smaller on islands. Smaller species, however, show no consistent tendency to either dwarf or grow larger on islands. Size ranges of insular taxa are not narrower than expected by chance given the number of species in their clades, nor are they narrower than the size ranges of their mainland sister clades – despite insular clade members showing strong phylogenetic clustering. Main conclusions The concept of a single optimal body size is not supported by the data that were thought most likely to show it. We reject the notion that inclusive clades evolve towards a body‐plan‐specific optimum.     

Rule reversal: Ecogeographical patterns of body size variation in the common treeshrew (Mammalia,Scandentia)

There are a number of ecogeographical “rules” that describe patterns of geographical variation among organisms. The island rule predicts that populations of larger mammals on islands evolve smaller mean body size than their mainland counterparts, whereas smaller‐bodied mammals evolve larger size. Bergmann's rule predicts that populations of a species in colder climates (generally at higher latitudes) have larger mean body sizes than conspecifics in warmer climates (at lower latitudes). These two rules are rarely tested together and neither has been rigorously tested in treeshrews, a clade of small‐bodied mammals in their own order (Scandentia) broadly distributed in mainland Southeast Asia and on islands throughout much of the Sunda Shelf. The common treeshrew, Tupaia glis, is an excellent candidate for study and was used to test these two rules simultaneously for the first time in treeshrews. This species is distributed on the Malay Peninsula and several offshore islands east, west, and south of the mainland. Using craniodental dimensions as a proxy for body size, we investigated how island size, distance from the mainland, and maximum sea depth between the mainland and the islands relate to body size of 13 insular T. glis populations while also controlling for latitude and correlation among variables. We found a strong negative effect of latitude on body size in the common treeshrew, indicating the inverse of Bergmann's rule. We did not detect any overall difference in body size between the island and mainland populations. However, there was an effect of island area and maximum sea depth on body size among island populations. Although there is a strong latitudinal effect on body size, neither Bergmann's rule nor the island rule applies to the common treeshrew. The results of our analyses demonstrate the necessity of assessing multiple variables simultaneously in studies of ecogeographical rules.     

Area, isolation and body size evolution in insular carnivores

Body sizes of insular mammals often differ strikingly from those of their mainland conspecifics. Small islands have reduced numbers of competitor and predator species, and more limited resources. Such reductions are believed to select for predictable changes in body sizes, with large mammals growing progressively smaller as island area decreases, while small ones grow progressively larger. Medium-sized mammals are thought to be largest on intermediate-sized islands. Increased isolation is seen as promoting insular gigantism. We searched for such patterns using a large database of insular carnivore specimens. Neither small nor large carnivores show a consistent area/body size relationship. Medium-sized carnivores are no more likely to attain large size on medium-sized islands then they are to be small there. We found no consistent patterns of body size variation in relation to isolation.     

PLANT SIZE AND FORM IN THE UNDERSTORY PALM GENUS GEONOMA: ARE SPECIES VARIATIONS ON A THEME?

This study addressed the hypothesis that phylogenetic changes in plant size at reproductive maturity may have facilitated adaptive radiation of Geonoma species within rain forest understory habitats. Leaf size, leaf form, plant size, and growth form were compared within and among 23 species of Geonoma from lowland and montane rain forest areas of Costa Rica and Colombia. Leaf size was significantly correlated with crown height in 18 of the 21 species examined, and with stem diameter in 17 of the species. In species characterized by a gradual ontogenetic transition from bifid to dissected leaves, shoots with bifid leaves were significantly smaller than shoots with dissected leaves with respect to rachis length, number of plications, and stem diameter. Among species, stem diameter below the crown explained 74% of the variation in leaf size (rachis length). Crown height and stem diameter were positively correlated among clustered species, but not among solitary species or all species combined. Leaf dissection was correlated with crown height among the 17 species with dissected leaves; species with bifid leaves were significantly smaller than species with dissected leaves with respect to leaf size and stem diameter. Solitary species had larger leaves and larger stem diameters than clustered species at the same crown heights. Morphological patterns among species generally followed within-species trends. These patterns suggest that Geonoma species are variants on a generic theme:within and among species, leaf size and complexity of form increase with stem diameter and crown height. Solitary and clustered growth forms appear to be morphologically convergent; within each of these architectural groups, the generic theme still applies. Evolutionary changes in leaf size, leaf form, and plant size, however, have clearly involved other factors in addition to variation in plant size.     

Insular shifts in body size of rice frogs in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China

1. Differences in body size between mainland and island populations have been reported for reptiles, birds and mammals. Despite widespread recognition of insular shifts in body size in these taxa, there have been no reports of such body size shifts in amphibians. 2. We provide the first evidence of an insular shift in body size for an amphibian species, the rice frog Rana limnocharis. We found significant increases in body size of rice frogs on most sampled islands in the Zhoushan archipelago when compared with neighbouring mainland China. 3. Large body size in rice frogs on islands was significantly related to increased population density, in both breeding and non-breeding seasons. Increases in rice frog density were significantly related to higher resource availability on islands. Increased resource availability on islands has led to higher carrying capacities, which has subsequently facilitated higher densities and individual growth rates, resulting in larger body size in rice frogs. We also suggest that large body size has evolved on islands, as larger individuals are competitively superior under conditions of harsh intraspecific competition at high densities. 4. Increases in body size in rice frogs were not related to several factors that have been implicated previously in insular shifts in body size in other taxa. We found no significant relationships between body size of rice frogs and prey size, number of larger or smaller frog species, island area or distance of islands from the mainland. 5. Our findings contribute to the formation of a broad, repeatable ecological generality for insular shifts in body size across a range of terrestrial vertebrate taxa, and provide support for recent theoretical work concerning the importance of resource availability for insular shifts in body size.     

Insular shifts and trade-offs in life-history traits in pond frogs in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China

Island and mainland populations of animal species often differ strikingly in life-history traits such as clutch size, egg size, total reproductive effort and body size. However, despite widespread recognition of insular shifts in these life-history traits in birds, mammals and reptiles, there have been no reports of such life-history shifts in amphibians. Furthermore, most studies have focused on one specific life-history trait without explicit consideration of coordinated evolution among these intimately linked life-history traits, and thus the relationships among these traits are poorly studied. Here we provide the first evidence of insular shifts and trade-offs in a coordinated suite of life-history traits for an amphibian species, the pond frog Rana nigromaculata . Life-history data were collected from eight islands in the Zhoushan Archipelago and neighboring mainland China. We found consistent, significant shifts in all life-history traits between mainland and island populations. Island populations had smaller clutch sizes, larger egg sizes, larger female body size and invested less in total reproductive effort than mainland populations. Significant negative relationships were found between egg size and clutch size and between egg size and total reproductive effort among frog populations after controlling for the effects of body size. Therefore, decreased reproductive effort and clutch size, larger egg size and body size in pond frogs on islands were selected through trade-offs as an overall life-history strategy. Our findings contribute to the formation of a broad, repeatable ecological generality for insular shifts in life-history traits across a range of terrestrial vertebrate taxa.     

Size evolution in island lizards

Aim  The island rule, small animal gigantism and large animal dwarfism on islands, is a topic of much recent debate. While size evolution of insular lizards has been widely studied, whether or not they follow the island rule has never been investigated. I examined whether lizards show patterns consistent with the island rule.
Location  Islands worldwide.
Methods  I used literature data on the sizes of island–mainland population pairs in 59 species of lizards, spanning the entire size range of the group, and tested whether small insular lizards are larger than their mainland conspecifics and large insular lizards are smaller. I examined the influence of island area, island isolation, and dietary preferences on lizard size evolution.
Results  Using mean snout–vent length as an index of body size, I found that small lizards on islands become smaller than their mainland conspecifics, while large ones become larger still, opposite to predictions of the island rule. This was especially strong in carnivorous lizards; omnivorous and herbivorous species showed a pattern consistent with the island rule but this result was not statistically significant. No trends consistent with the island rule were found when maximum snout–vent length was used. Island area had, at best, a weak effect on body size. Using maximum snout–vent length as an index of body size resulted in most lizard populations appearing to be dwarfed on islands, but no such pattern was revealed when mean snout–vent length was used as a size index.
Main conclusions  I suggest that lizard body size is mostly influenced by resource availability, with large size allowing some lizard populations to exploit resources that are unavailable on the mainland. Lizards do not follow the island rule. Maximum snout–vent length may be biased by sampling effort, which should be taken into account when one uses this size index.     

Convergent evolution of gigantism in the flora of an isolated archipelago

Animals often evolve conspicuous differences in body size after colonising isolated islands. However, far less is known about repeated patterns in the evolution of plant size on islands. We tested for convergent evolution of leaf area, seed size and plant stature in the flora of the Chatham Islands (i.e. Rēkohu), which are located 700 km off the east coast of New Zealand. First, we measured leaf area, seed size and plant stature from populations of 22 plant taxa on the Chatham Islands. These data were then compared to analogous measurements from their sister taxa on the mainland to test for evidence of island gigantism, and whether size changes differ between leaves, seeds and stature. Second, we collated data from the literature to test whether size changes in endemic taxa differed among plant growth forms or were correlated with divergence times. Results showed that all three plant traits tended to increase in size on the Chatham Islands. However, field data showed that size increases tended to be more consistent in seeds and leaves than in stature. Data from the literature indicated that size increases also differed among growth forms. Herbaceous species showed the strongest evidence of gigantism, followed by woody plants, while graminoids showed a weak trend towards dwarfism. Insular size increases in seeds and leaves were also positively related to divergence times, indicating that taxa which have resided on the Chatham Islands for longer periods show stronger evidence of gigantism than taxa which arrived more recently. Overall results illustrate that gigantism is a hallmark of the Chatham Island flora, providing a remarkable example of convergent evolution.     

The insular herpetofauna of Mexico: Composition,conservation, and biogeographic patterns

We compile a Mexican insular herpetofaunal checklist to estimate endemism, conservation status, island threats, net taxonomic turnover among six biogeographic provinces belonging to the Nearctic and Neotropical regions, and the relationships between island area and mainland distance versus species richness. We compile a checklist of insular herpetofaunal through performing a literature and collection review. We define the conservation status according to conservation Mexican law, the Red List of International Union for Conservation of Nature, and Environmental Vulnerability Scores. We determine threat percentages on islands according to the 11 major classes of threats to biodiversity. We estimate the net taxonomic turnover with beta diversity analysis between the Nearctic and Neotropical provinces. The Mexican insular herpetofauna is composed of 18 amphibian species, 204 species with 101 subspecies of reptiles, and 263 taxa in total. Endemism levels are 11.76% in amphibians, 53.57% in reptiles, and 27.91% being insular endemic taxa. Two conservation status systems classify the species at high extinction risk, while the remaining system suggests less concern. However, all systems indicate species lacking assessment. Human activities and exotic alien species are present on 60% of 131 islands. The taxonomic turnover value is high (0.89), with a clear herpetofaunal differentiation between the two biogeographic regions. The species–area and species–mainland distance relationships are positive. Insular herpetofauna faces a high percentage of threats, with the Neotropical provinces more heavily impacted. It is urgent to explore the remaining islands (3,079 islands) and better incorporate insular populations and species in ecological, evolutionary, and systematic studies. In the face of the biodiversity crisis, islands will play a leading role as a model to apply restoration and conservation strategies.     

Potential for higher invasiveness of the alien Oxalis pes-caprae on islands than on the mainland

The higher vulnerability of islands to invasions compared to mainland areas has been partially attributed to a simplification of island communities, with lower levels of natural enemies and competitors on islands conferring vacant niches for invaders to establish and proliferate. However, differences in invader life-history traits between populations have received less attention. We conducted a broad geographical analysis (i.e. 1050 km wide transect) of plant traits comparing insular and mainland populations to test the hypothesis that alien plants from insular populations have the potential for higher invasiveness than their alien mainland counterparts. For this purpose plants of the annual geophyte Oxalis pes-caprae were grown from bulbs collected in the Balearic islands and the Spanish mainland under common greenhouse conditions. There were no significant differences in bulb emergence and plant survival between descendants from insular and mainland populations. However, Oxalis descendants from insular populations produced 20% more bulbs without reducing allocation to bulb size, above-ground biomass or flowering than descendants from mainland populations. Based on the lack of sexual reproduction in Oxalis and the dependence of invasion on bulb production, our study suggests that the higher occurrence of Oxalis in the Balearic islands than in the Spanish mainland can partially be explained by genetically based higher propagation potential of insular populations compared to mainland populations.     

‘On being the right size’ – Do aliens follow the rules?

Aim

To assess whether mammalian species introduced onto islands across the globe have evolved to exhibit body size patterns consistent with the ‘island rule,’, and to test an ecological explanation for body size evolution of insular mammals.

Location

Islands worldwide.

Methods

We assembled data on body mass, geographical characteristics (latitude, maximum elevation) and ecological communities (number of mammalian competitors, predators and prey) for 385 introduced populations across 285 islands, comprising 56 species of extant, non‐volant mammals. We used linear regression, ANCOVA and regression tree analyses to test whether introduced populations of mammals exhibit the island rule pattern, whether the degree of body size change increased with time in isolation and whether residual variation about the general trend can be attributed to the geographical and ecological characteristics of the islands.

Results

Introduced populations follow the predicted island rule trend, with body size shifts more pronounced for populations with greater residence times on the islands. Small mammals evolved to larger body sizes in lower latitudes and on islands with limited topographic relief. Consistent with our hypothesis on the ecology of evolution, body size of insular introduced populations was influenced by co‐occurring species of mammalian competitors, predators and prey.

Conclusion

The island rule is a pervasive pattern, exhibited across a broad span of geographical regions, taxa, time periods and, as evidenced here, for introduced as well as native mammals. Time in isolation impacts body size evolution profoundly. Body size shift of introduced mammals was much more pronounced with increasing residence times, yet far less than that exhibited by native, palaeo‐insular mammals (residence times > 10,000 years). Given the antiquity of many species introductions, it appears that much of what we view as the natural character and ecological dynamics of recent insular communities may have been rendered artefacts of ancient colonizations by humans and commensals.     

Of mice and mammoths: evaluations of causal explanations for body size evolution in insular mammals

Aim We investigated the hypothesis that the insular body size of mammals results from selective forces whose influence varies with characteristics of the focal islands and the focal species, and with interactions among species (ecological displacement and release). Location Islands world‐wide. Methods We assembled data on the geographic characteristics (area, isolation, maximum elevation, latitude) and climate (annual averages and seasonality of temperature and precipitation) of islands, and on the ecological and morphological characteristics of focal species (number of mammalian competitors and predators, diet, body size of mainland reference populations) that were most relevant to our hypothesis (385 insular populations from 98 species of extant, non‐volant mammals across 248 islands). We used regression tree analyses to examine the hypothesized contextual importance of these factors in explaining variation in the insular body size of mammals. Results The results of regression tree analyses were consistent with predictions based on hypotheses of ecological release (more pronounced changes in body size on islands lacking mammalian competitors or predators), immigrant selection (more pronounced gigantism in small species inhabiting more isolated islands), thermoregulation and endurance during periods of climatic or environmental stress (more pronounced gigantism of small mammals on islands of higher latitudes or on those with colder and more seasonal climates), and resource subsidies (larger body size for mammals that utilize aquatic prey). The results, however, were not consistent with a prediction based on resource limitation and island area; that is, the insular body size of large mammals was not positively correlated with island area. Main conclusions These results support the hypothesis that the body size evolution of insular mammals is influenced by a combination of selective forces whose relative importance and nature of influence are contextual. While there may exist a theoretical optimal body size for mammals in general, the optimum for a particular insular population varies in a predictable manner with characteristics of the islands and the species, and with interactions among species. This study did, however, produce some unanticipated results that merit further study – patterns associated with Bergmann’s rule are amplified on islands, and the body size of small mammals appears to peak at intermediate and not maximum values of latitude and island isolation.     

Architecture and growth of an annual plant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chenopodium album</Emphasis> in different light climates

Light climates strongly influence plant architecture and mass allocation. Using the metamer concept, we quantitatively described branching architecture and growth of Chenopodium album plants grown solitarily or in a dense stand. Metamer is a unit of plant construction that is composed of an internode and the upper node with a leaf and a subtended axillary bud. The number of metamers on the main-axis stem increased with plant growth, but did not differ between solitary and dense-stand plants. Solitary plants had shorter thicker internodes with branches larger in size and number than the plant in the dense stand. Leaf area on the main stem was not different. Larger leaf area in solitary plants was due to a larger number of leaves on branches. Leaf mass per area (LMA) was higher in solitary plants. It did not significantly differ between the main axis and branches in solitary plants, whereas in the dense stand it was smaller on branches. Dry mass was allocated most to leaves in solitary plants and to stems in the dense stand in vegetative growth. Reproductive allocation was not significantly different. Branch/main stem mass ratio was higher in solitary than dense-stand plants, and leaf/stem mass ratio higher in branches than in the main axis. Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) (dry mass growth per unit N uptake) was higher and light use efficiency (LUE) (dry mass growth per unit light interception) was lower in the plant grown solitarily than in the dense stand.     

Covariation in Insular Life-history Traits of the Rice Frog(Fejervarya limnocharis)in Eastern China

Although shifts in life-history traits of insular vertebrates, as compared with mainland populations, have been observed in many taxa, few studies have examined the relationships among individual life-history traits on islands. Lifehistory theory also predicts that there is a trade-off between body size and reproductive effort, and between egg size and clutch size. We surveyed the rice frog, Fejervarya limnocharis, on 20 islands within the Zhoushan Archipelago and two nearby sites on the mainland of China to compare differences in life-history traits and to explore relationships among those traits. Rice frog females reached a greater body size on half of the smaller islands among the total 20 surveyed islands, and larger egg size, decreased clutch size and reduced reproductive effort on most of the islands when compared to the two mainland sites. Insular body size was negatively correlated with reproductive effort. There was a negative correlation between egg size and clutch size. Results suggest that life-history theory provides a good explanation for co-variation between body size and reproductive effort, and between egg size and clutch size in rice frogs on the islands.     

Mainland size variation informs predictive models of exceptional insular body size change in rodents

The tendency for island populations of mammalian taxa to diverge in body size from their mainland counterparts consistently in particular directions is both impressive for its regularity and, especially among rodents, troublesome for its exceptions. However, previous studies have largely ignored mainland body size variation, treating size differences of any magnitude as equally noteworthy. Here, we use distributions of mainland population body sizes to identify island populations as ‘extremely’ big or small, and we compare traits of extreme populations and their islands with those of island populations more typical in body size. We find that although insular rodents vary in the directions of body size change, ‘extreme’ populations tend towards gigantism. With classification tree methods, we develop a predictive model, which points to resource limitations as major drivers in the few cases of insular dwarfism. Highly successful in classifying our dataset, our model also successfully predicts change in untested cases.