Comparing data of different survey methods for sustainable wildlife management in hunting areas: the case of Tarangire–Manyara ecosystem,northern Tanzania

Cost–benefit considerations of wildlife monitoring are essential, particularly, in areas outside national park boundaries, where resources for conducting wildlife censuses are scarce, but that, at the same time, are subject to high pressure for wildlife utilization, such as hunting. Large mammal survey data from various sources were collated and analyzed to investigate which methods are best suited for monitoring purposes at low cost in the Tarangire–Manyara ecosystem, northern Tanzania. Our results indicate that primary data (from aerial and road transects counts) that involve direct species observations, although sometimes very expensive, are required for establishing the status of the target species in terms of density or population size. Concomitantly, secondary data from various sources, such as interviews, hunting quota, and damage reports, obtained over wide areas and over longer periods of time, can provide important information on presence/absence and distribution of species within an area. In addition, the study revealed that hunting quotas set did not correlate with species abundance/numbers from the primary data surveys for most of the large mammals hunted within the ecosystem. For a better conservation and management of wildlife, in particular with respect to the forthcoming formation of Wildlife Management Areas, we propose an integrated approach to wildlife monitoring using primary and secondary data sources through the involvement of local people’s knowledge.     

On the merits and feasibility of wildlife monitoring for conservation: a case study from Katavi National Park,Tanzania

Although long‐term monitoring is viewed as an essential part of conserving wildlife populations, it is currently carried out in surprisingly few protected areas in Africa. Here, data from a 16‐year vehicle transect monitoring programme in Katavi National Park, western Tanzania, are presented. These data provide information on large mammal densities, identify declines in populations of several large mammal species as based on encounter rates, support worrying trends observed in aerial census data and shed light on the effectiveness of recent changes in legal protection. Ground and aerial surveys confirmed that waterbuck, topi, warthog, lion and spotted hyaena populations are all in decline and that this should be a cause for concern. Counting animals by driving vehicle transects is relatively easy and inexpensive to carry out, and data here show that such counts have several pay‐offs for conservation managers especially in identifying population declines; counts should be employed more often in East Africa and elsewhere.     

Observer aging and long‐term avian survey data quality

Long‐term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging‐related changes to these observers may be an important, under‐recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario (“OBBA”) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (“BBS”), to test for age‐related observer effects in long‐term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high‐pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high‐frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long‐term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible.     

Community‐based wildlife management area supports similar mammal species richness and densities compared to a national park

Community‐based conservation models have been widely implemented across Africa to improve wildlife conservation and livelihoods of rural communities. In Tanzania, communities can set aside land and formally register it as Wildlife Management Area (WMA), which allows them to generate revenue via consumptive or nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife. The key, yet often untested, assumption of this model is that economic benefits accrued from wildlife motivate sustainable management of wildlife. To test the ecological effectiveness (here defined as persistence of wildlife populations) of Burunge Wildlife Management Area (BWMA), we employed a participatory monitoring approach involving WMA personnel. At intermittent intervals between 2011 and 2018, we estimated mammal species richness and population densities of ten mammal species (African elephant, giraffe, buffalo, zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, warthog, impala, Kirk's dik‐dik, and vervet monkey) along line transects. We compared mammal species accumulation curves and density estimates with those of time‐matched road transect surveys conducted in adjacent Tarangire National Park (TNP). Mammal species richness estimates were similar in both areas, yet observed species richness per transect was greater in TNP compared to BWMA. Species‐specific density estimates of time‐matched surveys were mostly not significantly different between BWMA and TNP, but elephants occasionally reached greater densities in TNP compared to BWMA. In BWMA, elephant, wildebeest, and impala populations showed significant increases from 2011 to 2018. These results suggest that community‐based conservation models can support mammal communities and densities that are similar to national park baselines. In light of the ecological success of this case study, we emphasize the need for continued efforts to ensure that the BWMA is effective. This will require adaptive management to counteract potential negative repercussions of wildlife populations on peoples' livelihoods. This study can be used as a model to evaluate the effectiveness of wildlife management areas across Tanzania.     

Critical evaluation of a long-term, locally-based wildlife monitoring program in West Africa

Effective monitoring programs are required to understand and mitigate biodiversity declines, particularly in tropical ecosystems where conservation conflicts are severe yet ecological data are scarce. “Locally-based” monitoring has been advanced as an approach to improve biodiversity monitoring in developing countries, but the accuracy of data from many such programs has not been adequately assessed. I evaluated a long-term, patrol-based wildlife monitoring system in Mole National Park, Ghana, through comparison with camera trapping and an assessment of sampling error. I found that patrol observations underrepresented the park’s mammal community, recording only two-thirds as many species as camera traps over a common sampling period (2006–2008). Agreement between methods was reasonable for larger, diurnal and social species (e.g., larger ungulates and primates), but camera traps were more effective at detecting smaller, solitary and nocturnal species (particularly carnivores). Data from patrols and cameras corresponded for some spatial patterns of management interest (e.g., community turnover, edge effect on abundance) but differed for others (e.g., richness, edge effect on diversity). Long-term patrol observations were influenced by uneven sampling effort and considerable variation in replicate counts. Despite potential benefits of locally-based monitoring, these results suggest that data from this and similar programs may be subject to biases that complicate interpretation of wildlife population and community dynamics. Careful attention to monitoring objectives, methodological design and robust analysis is required if locally-based approaches are to satisfy an aim of reliable biodiversity monitoring, and there is a need for greater international support in the creation and maintenance of local monitoring capacity.     

Frogs in the spotlight: a 16‐year survey of native frogs and invasive toads on a floodplain in tropical Australia

Although widespread declines in anuran populations have attracted considerable concern, the stochastic demographics of these animals make it difficult to detect consistent trends against a background of spatial and temporal variation. To identify long‐term trends, we need datasets gathered over long time periods, especially from tropical areas where anuran biodiversity is highest. We conducted road surveys of four anurans in the Australian wet–dry tropics on 4637 nights over a 16‐year period. Our surveys spanned the arrival of invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina), allowing us to assess the invader's impact on native anuran populations. Our counts demonstrate abrupt and asynchronous shifts in abundance and species composition from one year to the next, not clearly linked to rainfall patterns. Typically, periods of decline in numbers of a species were limited to 1–2 years and were followed by 1‐ to 2‐year periods of increase. No taxa showed consistent declines over time, although trajectories for some species showed significant perturbations coincident with the arrival of toads. None of the four focal frog species was less common at the end of the study than at the beginning, and three of the species reached peak abundances after toad arrival. Survey counts of cane toads increased rapidly during the initial stage of invasion but have subsequently declined and fluctuated. Distinguishing consistent declines versus stochastic fluctuations in anuran populations requires extensive time‐series analysis, coupled with an understanding of the shifts expected under local climatic conditions. This is especially pertinent when assessing impacts of specific perturbations such as invasive species.     

Long‐term persistence of wildlife populations in a pastoral area

Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case‐study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long‐term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect‐based long‐term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik‐dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17‐year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross‐species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17‐year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti‐poaching efforts, spatio‐temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long‐term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.     

Censusing large mammals in Kibale National Park: evaluation of the intensity of sampling required to determine change

Monitoring programmes are essential for management of large mammal populations because they can detect population change. It is vital that we have the means to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas. Kibale National Park is a stronghold for large mammal conservation in Uganda. Past wildlife surveys in Kibale focused on specific taxa or areas, but our large mammal survey covered the entire protected area and we evaluated the intensity of sampling required to determine population change. Using line transect sampling, we found that the distribution of large mammals was nonrandom and related to habitat‐type. However, confidence intervals of population estimates revealed that much more intensive sampling was required to detect changes in population density at a time scale reasonable for management. For many species, populations would have to decline by 40–60% for this method to detect population change. Post‐stratification decreased confidence intervals of density estimates slightly, increasing our ability to detect change. However, confidence intervals of estimates were still too large to detect a meaningful population change on a time scale that would allow management to take action. Most incidences of illegal activity were about 5 km from the park boundary; however, animal densities were not lower in this area.     

Participatory wildlife surveys in communal lands: a case study from Simanjiro,Tanzania

It is widely accepted that protected areas alone are not sufficient to conserve wildlife populations particularly for migratory or wide‐ranging species. In this study, we assess the population density of migratory species in the Tarangire–Simanjiro Ecosystem by conducting a ground census using DISTANCE sampling. We focus on the Simanjiro Plains which are used as a dispersal area by wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) and zebra (Equus burchellii). We demonstrate that DISTANCE sampling can provide precise estimates of population density and is an affordable method for monitoring wildlife populations over time. We stress the importance of involving local communities in monitoring programmes across landscapes that incorporate communal lands as well as protected areas.     

Assessment of wildlife populations trends in three protected areas in Tanzania from 1991 to 2012

Wildlife populations have been experiencing declines across western, central and eastern Africa. In Tanzania, a national wildlife policy was instituted in 1998 to increase protection of wildlife. We assessed (i) the extent to which large herbivore populations have continued to decline in density and distribution within three representative protected areas (PAs) since the implementation of the wildlife policy; (ii) how consistent rates of decline were among the PAs, and between inside the PAs or land bordering these PAs; and (iii) how similar changes in abundance have been among herbivore species or groupings of species. We used aerial census data from 1991 to 2012 for the Tarangire, Ruaha‐Rungwa and Katavi‐Rukwa PAs for our assessment. Population densities of three of six species or groupings of species dropped by 7.3 ± 3.4% to 11.7 ± 5.8% per year across the three PAs, both inside and outside. Similarly, the extent of the range occupied by these species or groupings in these PAs decreased by 92.3 ± 103.0% to 95.7 ± 102.6% per year. These patterns suggest that the wildlife policy has yet to achieve its aim of reversing the habitat changes and illegal harvests affecting these species.     

Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change—Evidence from large‐scale,long‐term abundance data

Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large‐scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s–80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s–80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.     

A decade of hibernating bat communities along the periphery of a region of white-nose syndrome

Long-term monitoring programs are necessary to assess populations for conservation planning and management decisions. Hibernating bats in North America have declined because of numerous natural and human-induced disturbances. White-nose syndrome (WNS) has become the most serious threat to North American cave-dwelling bats, leading to significant population declines in several species. We examined trends in hibernating bat populations at 11 hibernacula in northern Georgia and Alabama, USA, from 2013–2022, beginning when WNS was first detected in the region. Although we observed interannual variation in numbers of the federally endangered gray bat (Myotis grisescens), mean counts remained stable over time. In contrast, the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus) and the federally endangered northern long-eared bat (M. septentrionalis) declined by >90% in the first 5 years after WNS detection in the region. Although no northern long-eared bats have been reported since 2019, tricolored bat counts stabilized following initial declines. Understanding changes in bat populations as WNS continues to spread, and determining the extent of population declines, is necessary for making appropriate management decisions. Our findings elucidate the status of cave-dwelling bat species along the periphery of the white-nose syndrome endemic region and highlight the importance of monitoring bat communities on a regional scale to develop effective conservation strategies.     

Monitoring populations of Western Sandpipers and Pacific Dunlins during northward migration on the Fraser River Delta,British Columbia, 1991–2013

The Fraser River Delta in British Columbia, Canada, is a globally significant stopover site for shorebirds, but the population status and trends of many species that use the site remain uncertain. We describe an ongoing program to monitor population trends of the two most abundant species, Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) and Dunlins (Calidris alpina), during northward migration. Counts of these species were conducted at a mudflat where large flocks assembled at mid‐tide from 15 April to 15 May, 1991–2013, and we estimated species‐specific counts as the product of daily total flock counts and species proportions obtained during supplementary sampling. The median peak count of both species combined was 177,000 birds, and occurred between 24 April and 3 May. Ratios (proportions) of the two species followed a predictable pattern during the migration period, with a low proportion of Western Sandpipers (3%–20%) in flocks before 20 April, followed by a rapid increase to 80%–100% between 25 April and 10 May and a variable decrease to 30%–80% by 15 May. Mean counts of Western Sandpipers showed no significant trend over the study period. Mean counts of Dunlins showed a non‐linear trend, decreasing until 2001 and then increasing to 2013. Bias and random error in field counts were quantified by comparing field counts to counts made from photographs taken during surveys, and analysis revealed that field counts had a downward, but predictable, bias, accounting for >90% of birds present, with a stochastic error rate of 28.0%. Uncertainty in total population estimates was high after accounting for the effect of length of stay and sampling error. Population estimates suggested that 600,000 Western Sandpipers and 200,000 Dunlins typically passed through the site during northward migration. Our estimates indicate the usefulness of daily counts at major stopover sites during northward migration as an effective tool for monitoring shorebird populations, and underscore the need for conserving such sites.     

Incorporating Estimates of Group Size in Sightability Models for Wildlife

ABSTRACT Sightability models have been used to estimate population size of many wildlife species; however, a limitation of these models is an assumption that groups of animals observed and counted during aerial surveys are enumerated completely. Replacing these unknown counts with maximum observed counts, as is typically done, produces population size estimates that are negatively biased. This bias can be substantial depending on the degree of undercounting occurring. We first investigated a method-of-moments estimator of group sizes. We then defined a population size estimator using the method-of-moments estimator of group sizes in place of maximum counts in the traditional sightability models, thereby correcting for bias associated with undercounting group size. We also provide associated equations for calculating the variance of our estimator. This estimator is an improvement over existing sightability model techniques because it significantly reduces bias, and variance estimates provide near nominal confidence interval coverage. The data needed for this estimator can be easily collected and implemented by wildlife managers with a field crew of only 3 individuals and little additional flight or personnel time beyond the normal requirements for developing sightability models.     

Improving species occupancy estimation when sampling violates the closure assumption

Site occupancy models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly utilized in ecological research and wildlife monitoring. Occupancy models require replicate surveys to estimate detection probability over a time period where the occupancy status at sampled sites is assumed closed. Unlike mark–recapture models, few studies have examined how violations of closure can bias occupancy estimates. Our study design allowed us to differentiate among two processes that violate the closure assumption during a sampling season: 1) repeated destructive sampling events that result in either short‐ or long‐term site avoidance by the target species and 2) sampling occurring over a time period during which non‐random movements of the target species result in variable occupancy status. We used dynamic occupancy models to quantify the potential bias in occupancy estimation associated with these processes for a terrestrial salamander system. Our results provide strong evidence of a systematic decrease in salamander occupancy within a field season. Chronic disturbance due to repeated searches of natural cover objects accelerated natural declines in species occurrence on the forest surface as summer progressed. We also observed a strong but temporary disturbance effect on salamander detection probability associated with repeated sampling within a 24‐h. period. We generalized our findings by conducting a simulation to evaluate how violations of closure can bias occupancy estimates when local extinction occurs within a sampling season. Our simulation study revealed general sensitivity of estimates from single‐season occupancy models to violations of closure, with the strength and direction of bias varying between scenarios. Bias was minimal when extinction proba bility or the number of sample occasions was relatively low. Our research highlights the importance of addressing closure in occupancy studies and we provide multiple solutions, using both design‐ and model‐based frameworks, for minimizing bias associated with non‐random changes in occupancy and repeated sampling disturbances.     

Density influences accuracy of model‐based estimates for a forest songbird

Golden‐cheeked Warblers (Setophaga chrysoparia) are endangered songbirds that breed exclusively in the Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) and oak (Quercus spp.) woodlands of central Texas. Despite being the focus of numerous studies, we still know little about the size of the range‐wide breeding population and how density varies across the spectrum of juniper co‐dominated woodlands. Models that have been tested and shown to be accurate are needed to help develop management and conservation guidelines. We evaluated the accuracy and bias of density estimates from binomial mixture models, the dependent double‐observer method, and distance sampling by comparing them to actual densities determined by intensive territory monitoring on plots in the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve, Austin, Texas. We found that the binomial mixture models consistently overestimated density by 1.1–3.2 times (actual density = 0.07–0.46 males/ha), and the other two models overestimated by 1.1–29.8 times at low density and underestimated by 0.5–0.9 times at high density plots (actual density = 0.01–0.46 males/ha). The magnitude of error for all models was greatest at sites with few or no birds (<0.15 males/ha), with model performance improving as actual density increased. These non‐linear relationships indicate a lack of sensitivity with respect to true changes in density. Until systematic evaluation demonstrates that models such as those we tested provide accurate and unbiased density estimates for a given species over space and time, we recommend additional field tests to validate model‐based estimates. Continued model validation and refinement of point‐count methods are needed until accurate estimates are obtained across the density spectrum for Golden‐cheeked Warblers and other songbird species.     

Nestboxes and immigration drive the growth of an urban Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus population

Drivers of wildlife population dynamics are generally numerous and interacting. Some of these drivers may impact demographic processes that are difficult to estimate, such as immigration into the focal population. Populations may furthermore be small and subject to demographic stochasticity. All of these factors contribute to blur the causal relationship between past management action and current population trends. The urban Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus population in Cape Town, South Africa, increased from three pairs in 1997 to 18 pairs in 2010. Nestboxes were installed over this period to manage the interface between new urban pairs of Falcons and the human users of colonized buildings, and incidentally to improve breeding success. We used integrated population models (IPMs) formally to combine information from a capture–mark–recapture study, monitoring of reproductive success and counts of population size. As all local demographic processes were directly observed, the IPM approach also allowed us to estimate immigration by difference. The provision of nestboxes, as a possible stimulant of population growth, improved breeding success and accounted for an estimated 3–26% of the population increase. The most important driver of growth, however, was immigration. Despite low sample sizes, the IPM approach allowed us to obtain relatively precise estimates of the population‐level impact of nestbox deployment. The goal of conservation interventions is often to increase population size, so the effectiveness of such interventions should ideally be assessed at the population level. IPMs are powerful tools in this context for combining demographic information that may be limited due to small population size or practical constraints on monitoring. Our study quantitatively documented both the immigration process that led to growth of a small population and the effect of a management action that helped the process.     

Assessing the performance of index calibration survey methods to monitor populations of wide‐ranging low‐density carnivores

Apex carnivores are wide‐ranging, low‐density, hard to detect, and declining throughout most of their range, making population monitoring both critical and challenging. Rapid and inexpensive index calibration survey (ICS) methods have been developed to monitor large African carnivores. ICS methods assume constant detection probability and a predictable relationship between the index and the actual population of interest. The precision and utility of the resulting estimates from ICS methods have been questioned. We assessed the performance of one ICS method for large carnivores—track counts—with data from two long‐term studies of African lion populations. We conducted Monte Carlo simulation of intersections between transects (road segments) and lion movement paths (from GPS collar data) at varying survey intensities. Then, using the track count method we estimated population size and its confidence limits. We found that estimates either overstate precision or are too imprecise to be meaningful. Overstated precision stemmed from discarding the variance from population estimates when developing the method and from treating the conversion from tracks counts to population density as a back‐transformation, rather than applying the equation for the variance of a linear function. To effectively assess the status of species, the IUCN has set guidelines, and these should be integrated in survey designs. We propose reporting the half relative confidence interval width (HRCIW) as an easily calculable and interpretable measure of precision. We show that track counts do not adhere to IUCN criteria, and we argue that ICS methods for wide‐ranging low‐density species are unlikely to meet those criteria. Established, intensive methods lead to precise estimates, but some new approaches, like short, intensive, (spatial) capture–mark–recapture (CMR/SECR) studies, aided by camera trapping and/or genetic identification of individuals, hold promise. A handbook of best practices in monitoring populations of apex carnivores is strongly recommended.     

Statistical power of replicated helicopter surveys in southern African conservation areas

Understanding the ecology of large ungulates in southern Africa requires accurate and precise measures of population size. Recovery or exploitation of ungulates in reserves is currently instigated when population size changes exceed 15% per annum, but monitoring is usually undertaken with single counts from helicopters, for which precision and the power to detect change are untested. In essence, power being the strength of a monitoring result in showing change over time. Retrospective power analysis is a useful technique to investigate the variability of single‐count aerial surveys. Using replicated helicopter‐based counts of southern African ungulates and post hoc analysis, we investigated the power of currently used single‐count surveys across five common ungulate species and 11 wildlife reserves. We expected high variability in count data and set α = 0.1 and 0.2 (α being the type I error rate), and asked two questions: ‘How much does power vary in replicated aerial counts of southern African wildlife across reserves and species?’ and ‘Can current single‐count aerial surveys detect population changes in response to management actions or are the statistical errors intractable?’ Single counts were mostly unreliable; only one of 42 had sufficient power to detect meaningful changes in population size or their trends at α = 0.1, and only three had sufficient power at α = 0.2. Power varied widely according to species (e.g. warthog, median power at α = 0.1; 0.12–0.37: blue wildebeest, median power at α = 0.1; 0.23–0.74), and, within species, between replicates and reserves. Our retrospective calculations demonstrated insensitivity and ineffectiveness in most currently applied single counts from helicopters. Consequently, it is impossible to interpret the effects of ungulate conservation actions on many southern African reserves. Retrospective power analyses enables determination of which previous aerial surveys were useful for population assessment and adaptive management, and which should be discarded. We recommend that prospective power analyses are undertaken to determine future helicopter survey sample size and replication requirements, especially in small reserves.     

Evaluating monitoring methods to guide adaptive management of a threatened amphibian (Litoria aurea)

Prompt detection of declines in abundance or distribution of populations is critical when managing threatened species that have high population turnover. Population monitoring programs provide the tools necessary to identify and detect decreases in abundance that will threaten the persistence of key populations and should occur in an adaptive management framework which designs monitoring to maximize detection and minimize effort. We monitored a population of Litoria aurea at Sydney Olympic Park over 5 years using mark–recapture, capture encounter, noncapture encounter, auditory, tadpole trapping, and dip‐net surveys. The methods differed in the cost, time, and ability to detect changes in the population. Only capture encounter surveys were able to simultaneously detect a decline in the occupancy, relative abundance, and recruitment of frogs during the surveys. The relative abundance of L. aurea during encounter surveys correlated with the population size obtained from mark–recapture surveys, and the methods were therefore useful for detecting a change in the population. Tadpole trapping and auditory surveys did not predict overall abundance and were therefore not useful in detecting declines. Monitoring regimes should determine optimal survey times to identify periods where populations have the highest detectability. Once this has been achieved, capture encounter surveys provide a cost‐effective method of effectively monitoring trends in occupancy, changes in relative abundance, and detecting recruitment in populations.