Novel forest decline triggered by multiple interactions among climate,an introduced pathogen and bark beetles

Novel forest decline is increasing due to global environmental change, yet the causal factors and their interactions remain poorly understood. Using tree ring analyses, we show how climate and multiple biotic factors caused the decline of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in 16 stands in the southern Canadian Rockies. In our study area, 72% of whitebark pines were dead and 18% had partially dead crowns. Tree mortality peaked in the 1970s; however, the annual basal area increment of disturbed trees began to decline significantly in the late 1940s. Growth decline persisted up to 30 years before trees died from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), Ips spp. bark beetles or non‐native blister rust pathogen (Cronartium ribicola). Climate–growth relations varied over time and differed among the healthy and disturbed subpopulations of whitebark pine. Prior to the 1940s, cool temperatures limited the growth of all subpopulations. Growth of live, healthy trees became limited by drought during the cool phase (1947 –1976) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and then reverted to positive correlations with temperature during the subsequent warm PDO phase. In the 1940s, the climate–growth relations of the disturbed subpopulations diverged from the live, healthy trees with trees ultimately killed by mountain pine beetle diverging the most. We propose that multiple factors interacted over several decades to cause unprecedented rates of whitebark pine mortality. Climatic variation during the cool PDO phase caused drought stress that may have predisposed trees to blister rust. Subsequent decline in snowpack and warming temperatures likely incited further climatic stress and with blister rust reduced tree resistance to bark beetles. Ultimately, bark beetles and blister rust contributed to tree death. Our findings suggest the complexity of whitebark pine decline and the importance of considering multiway drought–disease–insect interactions over various timescales when interpreting forest decline.     

Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling

Major declines of whitebark pine forests throughout western North America from the combined effects of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, fire exclusion policies, and the exotic disease white pine blister rust (WPBR) have spurred many restoration actions. However, projected future warming and drying may further exacerbate the species' decline and possibly compromise long‐term success of today's restoration activities. We evaluated successes of restoration treatments under future climate using a comprehensive landscape simulation experiment. The spatially explicit, ecological process model FireBGCv2 was used to simulate whitebark pine populations on two U.S. Northern Rocky Mountain landscapes over 95 years under two climate, three restoration, and two fire management scenarios. Major findings were that (1) whitebark pine can remain on some high mountain landscapes in a future climate albeit at lower basal areas (50% decrease), (2) restoration efforts, such as thinning and prescribed burning, are vital to ensure future whitebark pine forests, and (3) climate change impacts on whitebark pine vary by local setting. Whitebark pine restoration efforts will mostly be successful in the future but only if future populations are somewhat resistant to WPBR. Results were used to develop general guidelines that address climate change impacts for planning, designing, implementing, and evaluating fine‐scale restoration activities.     

Predators and competitors of the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in stands of changing forest composition associated with elevation

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What explains landscape patterns of tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone?

Aim Bark beetle outbreaks have recently affected extensive areas of western North American forests, and factors explaining landscape patterns of tree mortality are poorly understood. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of stand structure, topography, soil characteristics, landscape context (the characteristics of the landscape surrounding the focal stand) and beetle pressure (the abundance of local beetle population eruptions around the focal stand a few years before the outbreak) to explain landscape patterns of tree mortality during outbreaks of three species: the mountain pine beetle, which attacks lodgepole pine and whitebark pine; the spruce beetle, which feeds on Engelmann spruce; and the Douglas‐fir beetle, which attacks Douglas‐fir. A second objective was to identify common variables that explain tree mortality among beetle–tree host pairings during outbreaks. Location Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, Wyoming, USA. Methods We used field surveys to quantify stand structure, soil characteristics and topography at the plot level in susceptible stands of each forest type showing different severities of infestation (0–98% mortality; n= 129 plots). We then used forest cover and beetle infestation maps derived from remote sensing to develop landscape context and beetle pressure metrics at different spatial scales. Plot‐level and landscape‐level variables were used to explain outbreak severity. Results Engelmann spruce and Douglas‐fir mortality were best predicted using landscape‐level variables alone. Lodgepole pine mortality was best predicted by both landscape‐level and plot‐level variables. Whitebark pine mortality was best – although poorly – predicted by plot‐level variables. Models including landscape context and beetle pressure were much better at predicting outbreak severity than models that only included plot‐level measures, except for whitebark pine. Main conclusions Landscape‐level variables, particularly beetle pressure, were the most consistent predictors of subsequent outbreak severity within susceptible stands of all four host species. These results may help forest managers identify vulnerable locations during ongoing outbreaks.     

Tree response and mountain pine beetle attack preference,reproduction and emergence timing in mixed whitebark and lodgepole pine stands

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Area‐wide application of verbenone‐releasing flakes reduces mortality of whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis caused by the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae

• 1 DISRUPT Micro‐Flake Verbenone Bark Beetle Anti‐Aggregant flakes (Hercon Environmental, Inc., Emigsville, Pennsylvania) were applied in two large‐scale tests to assess their efficacy for protecting whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis Engelm. from attack by mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) (MPB). At two locations, five plots of equivalent size and stand structure served as untreated controls. All plots had early‐ to mid‐outbreak beetle populations (i.e. 7.1–29.2 attacked trees/ha). Verbenone was applied at 370 g/ha in both studies. Intercept traps baited with MPB aggregation pheromone were placed near the corners of each plot after the treatment in order to monitor beetle flight within the plots. Trap catches were collected at 7‐ to 14‐day intervals, and assessments were made at the end of the season of stand structure, stand composition and MPB attack rate for the current and previous years.
• 2 Applications of verbenone flakes significantly reduced the numbers of beetles trapped in treated plots compared with controls at both sites by approximately 50% at the first collection date.
• 3 The applications also significantly reduced the proportion of trees attacked in both Wyoming and Washington using the proportion of trees attacked the previous year as a covariate in the model for analysis of current year attack rates; in both sites, the reduction was ≥ 50%.
• 4 The flake formulation of verbenone appears to have promise for area‐wide treatment by aerial application when aiming to control the mountain pine beetle in whitebark pine forests.

     

Comparisons of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) reproduction within a novel and traditional host: effects of insect natal history,colonized host species and competitors

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Spatial–temporal analysis of species range expansion: the case of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine‐scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle‐attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed‐wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter‐based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle‐damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern‐based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long‐range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north‐east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground‐based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long‐range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine‐ and large‐scale patterns.     

The influence of genetics,defensive chemistry and the fungal microbiome on disease outcome in whitebark pine trees

The invasive fungal pathogen Cronartium ribicola infects and kills whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) throughout western North America. Whitebark pine has been proposed for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA, and the loss of this species is predicted to have severe impacts on ecosystem composition and function in high‐elevation forests. Numerous fungal endophytes live inside whitebark pine tissues and may influence the severity of C. ribicola infection, either directly by inhibition of pathogen growth or indirectly by the induction of chemical defensive pathways in the tree. Terpenes, a form of chemical defence in pine trees, can also influence disease. In this study, we characterized fungal endophyte communities in whitebark pine seedlings before and after experimental inoculation with C. ribicola, monitored disease progression and compared fungal community composition in susceptible vs. resistant seedlings in a common garden. We analysed the terpene composition of these same seedlings. Seed family identity or maternal genetics influenced both terpenes and endophyte communities. Terpene and endophyte composition correlated with disease severity, and terpene concentrations differed in resistant vs. susceptible seedlings. These results suggest that the resistance to C. ribicola observed in natural whitebark pine populations is caused by the combined effects of genetics, endophytes and terpenes within needle tissue, in which initial interactions between microbes and hosts take place. Tree genotype, terpene and microbiome combinations associated with healthy trees could help to predict or reduce disease severity and improve outcomes of future tree breeding programmes.     

A test of high-dose verbenone for stand-level protection of lodgepole and whitebark pine from mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) attacks

The efficacy of verbenone as a stand-level protectant against mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, attacks was tested in lodgepole and whitebark pine stands at five geographically separated sites, including three consecutive years at one site. Forty and 20 high-dose pouches, with a verbenone emission rate up to 50 mg/d per pouch, were spaced in a grid pattern throughout 0.40-ha plots, replicated up to six times at each site. Although the verbenone treatment did not prevent beetles from dispersing through treated stands, attacking large-diameter trees most frequently, the overall number of trees attacked was, on average, reduced significantly compared with nontreated stands. In a few blocks each year, verbenone-treated plots had more attacked trees than controls. These blocks tended to have a large emerging beetle population, exceeding 140 previously attacked trees within the hectare including and surrounding the treated area. Additional research is needed on the behavioral role of verbenone in mountain pine beetle population dynamics and quantification of the infestation level above which treatment efficacy tends to be reduced.     

Developmental mortality increases sex‐ratio bias of a size‐dimorphic bark beetle

1. Given sexual size dimorphism, differential mortality owing to body size can lead to sex‐biased mortality, proximately biasing sex ratios. This mechanism may apply to mountain pine beetles, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, which typically have female‐biased adult populations (2 : 1) with females larger than males. Smaller males could be more susceptible to stresses than larger females as developing beetles overwinter and populations experience high mortality. 2. Survival of naturally‐established mountain pine beetles during the juvenile stage and the resulting adult sex ratios and body sizes (volume) were studied. Three treatments were applied to vary survival in logs cut from trees containing broods of mountain pine beetles. Logs were removed from the forest either in early winter, or in spring after overwintering below snow or after overwintering above snow. Upon removal, logs were placed at room temperature to allow beetles to complete development under similar conditions. 3. Compared with beetles from logs removed in early winter, mortality was higher and the sex ratio was more female‐biased in overwintering logs. The bias increased with overwinter mortality. However, sex ratios were female‐biased even in early winter, so additional mechanisms, other than overwintering mortality, contributed to the sex‐ratio bias. Body volume varied little relative to sex‐biased mortality, suggesting other size‐independent causes of male‐biased mortality. 4. Overwintering mortality is considered a major determinant of mountain pine beetle population dynamics. The disproportionate survival of females, who initiate colonisation of live pine trees, may affect population dynamics in ways that have not been previously considered.     

Spatial Distribution of Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in Relation to Climate and Stand Characteristics： A Dendroecological Analysis

Principal components analysis, followed by K-means cluster analysis, was used to detect variations in the timing and magnitude of Pinus contorta Dough ex Loud. growth releases attributed to mountain pine beetle outbreaks in 31 stands of central British Columbia. Four major growth release patterns were identified from 1970 to 2000. Variations in the timing of growth releases among clustered stands corresponded well to aerial survey data indicating the timing of beetle outbreaks in the study area. Redundancy analysis was used to determine how variations in the timing and magnitude of growth releases attributed to beetle outbreaks changed with variations in climate or stand conditions over the study area. The first RDA axis, which accounted for 39% of the variations in growth patterns among stands, was significantly （P〈0.05） correlated with gradients in the percentage of pine in stands killed by mountain pine beetle, summer aridity, variation in summer precipitation, distance from initial infestation site, average pine age, and maximum August temperatures. The second RDA axis explained 6% of the variations and was significantly correlated with gradients in the beetle climate suitability index, extreme cold month temperatures, and site index. Comparisons of growth release patterns with aerial survey data and redundancy analyses indicated that dendrochronological techniques are useful for identifying mountain pine beetle outbreaks in central British Columbia, particularly among stands that had a density high enough to produce a growth release signal. Provided future studies account for interannual weather fluctuations, identification of growth increases due to stand thinning caused by beetle outbreaks will be useful for reconstructing the history of beetle outbreaks over much longer time periods.     

Woodpecker nest survival,density, and a pine beetle outbreak

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in western North American coniferous forests are increasing in size and severity. An understanding of wildlife population responses to pine beetle outbreaks is needed to inform habitat conservation strategies. We monitored 355 nests of 5 woodpecker species during 2 sampling periods, before (2003–2006) and after (2009–2014) the peak of a pine beetle outbreak in dry mixed conifer forest of Montana, USA. Three of 5 woodpecker species represented the beetle-foraging group: American three-toed (Picoides dorsalis), hairy (Dryobates villosus), and downy (D. pubescens) woodpeckers. The other 2 species studied were northern flicker (Colaptes auratus), a foraging and habitat generalist, and red-naped sapsucker (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), a sap forager and bark-gleaning insectivore. We analyzed daily survival rate of nests in relation to pine beetle outbreak (445,000 ha) severity and timing, along with covariates unrelated to the outbreak (temp, nest height, and nest tree diameter). Our results provided stronger evidence for relationships between woodpecker nest survival and the non-outbreak variables than those associated with outbreaks. Our results indicated limited support for nest survival relationships with beetle severity (annual and cumulative pine tree mortality at 0.81-ha and 314-ha scales). Nevertheless, we observed a significant increase in densities of hatched nests for beetle-foraging woodpeckers following the outbreak. Our results suggest that woodpeckers, particularly beetle foragers, respond numerically to pine beetle outbreaks through increased nesting densities more so than functionally via nest survival. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

The impact of phloem nutrients on overwintering mountain pine beetles and their fungal symbionts

In the low nutrient environment of conifer bark, subcortical beetles often carry symbiotic fungi that concentrate nutrients in host tissues. Although bark beetles are known to benefit from these symbioses, whether this is because they survive better in nutrient-rich phloem is unknown. After manipulating phloem nutrition by fertilizing lodgepole pine trees (Pinus contorta Douglas var. latifolia), we found bolts from fertilized trees to contain more living individuals, and especially more pupae and teneral adults than bolts from unfertilized trees at our southern site. At our northern site, we found that a larger proportion of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) larvae built pupal chambers in bolts from fertilized trees than in bolts from unfertilized trees. The symbiotic fungi of the mountain pine beetle also responded to fertilization. Two mutualistic fungi of bark beetles, Grosmannia clavigera (Rob.-Jeffr. & R. W. Davidson) Zipfel, Z. W. de Beer, & M. J. Wingf. and Leptographium longiclavatum Lee, S., J. J. Kim, & C. Breuil, doubled the nitrogen concentrations near the point of infection in the phloem of fertilized trees. These fungi were less capable of concentrating nitrogen in unfertilized trees. Thus, the fungal symbionts of mountain pine beetle enhance phloem nutrition and likely mediate the beneficial effects of fertilization on the survival and development of mountain pine beetle larvae.     

Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States

Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand‐level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA that experienced an outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We measured tree characteristics in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) plots spanning a range of structure and mortality conditions. We then initialized the forest vegetation simulator, an individual tree‐based model, with these measurements and simulated the response of aboveground production of C fluxes as well as trajectories of C stocks and fluxes in the coming decades. Mountain pine beetles killed up to 52% of the trees within plots, with more larger trees killed. C stocks in lodgepole pine were reduced by 31–83% following the outbreak, and plot‐level C fluxes decreased 28–73%. Modeled C stocks increased nearly continuously following the infestation, recovering to preoutbreak levels in 25 years or less. Simulated aboveground tree C fluxes increased following the immediate postoutbreak decrease, then subsequently declined. Substantial variability of C stocks and fluxes among plots resulted from the number and size of killed and surviving trees. Our study illustrates that bark beetle epidemics alter forest C cycling unlike stand‐replacement wildfires or clear‐cut harvests, due in part to incomplete mortality coupled with the preference by beetles for larger trees. The dependency of postoutbreak C stocks and fluxes on stand structure suggests that C budget models and studies in areas experiencing mountain pine beetle disturbances need to include size distribution of trees for the most accurate results.     

Breach of the northern Rocky Mountain geoclimatic barrier: initiation of range expansion by the mountain pine beetle

Aim Our aim is to examine the historical breach of the geoclimatic barrier of the Rocky Mountains by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). This recent range expansion from west of the North American continental divide into the eastern boreal forest threatens to provide a conduit to naïve pine hosts in eastern North America. We examine the initial expansion events and determine potential mechanism(s) of spread by comparing spread patterns in consecutive years to various dispersal hypotheses such as: (1) meso‐scale atmospheric dispersal of insects from source populations south‐west of the Rocky Mountains in British Columbia (i.e. their historical range), (2) anthropogenic transport of infested plant material, and (3) spread of insect populations across adjacent stands via corridors of suitable habitat. Location British Columbia, Canada. Methods We explore potential mechanism(s) of invasion of the mountain pine beetle using spatial point process models for the initial 3 years of landscape‐level data collection, 2004–2006. Specifically, we examine observed patterns of infestation relative to covariates reflecting various dispersal hypotheses. We select the most parsimonious models for each of the initial 3 years of invasion using information criteria statistics. Results The initial range expansion and invasion of the beetle was characterized by aerial deposition along a strong north‐west to south‐east gradient, with additional aerial deposition and localized dispersal from persisting populations in following years. Main conclusions Following deposition of a wave front of mountain pine beetles parallel to the Rocky Mountains via meso‐scale atmospheric dispersal, the areas of highest intensity of infestations advanced up to 25 km north‐east towards jack pine (Pinus banksiana) habitat in a single year. There appeared to be no association between putative anthropogenic movement of infested materials and initial range expansion of the mountain pine beetle across the continental divide.     

Nitrogen Cycling Responses to Mountain Pine Beetle Disturbance in a High Elevation Whitebark Pine Ecosystem

Ecological disturbances can significantly affect biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, but the biogeochemical consequences of the extensive mountain pine beetle outbreak in high elevation whitebark pine (WbP) (Pinus albicaulis) ecosystems of western North America have not been previously investigated. Mountain pine beetle attack has driven widespread WbP mortality, which could drive shifts in both the pools and fluxes of nitrogen (N) within these ecosystems. Because N availability can limit forest regrowth, understanding how beetle-induced mortality affects N cycling in WbP stands may be critical to understanding the trajectory of ecosystem recovery. Thus, we measured above- and belowground N pools and fluxes for trees representing three different times since beetle attack, including unattacked trees. Litterfall N inputs were more than ten times higher under recently attacked trees compared to unattacked trees. Soil inorganic N concentrations also increased following beetle attack, potentially driven by a more than two-fold increase in ammonium (NH₄ ⁺) concentrations in the surface soil organic horizon. However, there were no significant differences in mineral soil inorganic N or soil microbial biomass N concentrations between attacked and unattacked trees, implying that short-term changes in N cycling in response to the initial stages of WbP attack were restricted to the organic horizon. Our results suggest that while mountain pine beetle attack drives a pulse of N from the canopy to the forest floor, changes in litterfall quality and quantity do not have profound effects on soil biogeochemical cycling, at least in the short-term. However, continuous observation of these important ecosystems will be crucial to determining the long-term biogeochemical effects of mountain pine beetle outbreaks.     

Energy use by the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) for dispersal by flight

The mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins is a major native pest of Pinus Linnaeus (Pinaceae) in western North America. Host colonization by the mountain pine beetle is associated with an obligatory dispersal phase, during which beetles fly in search of a suitable host. Mountain pine beetles use stored energy from feeding in the natal habitat to power flight before host colonization and brood production. Lipids fuel mountain pine beetle flight, although it is not known whether other energy sources are also used during flight. In the present study, we compare the level of energy substrates, proteins, carbohydrates and lipids of individual mountain pine beetles flown on flight mills with unflown control beetles. We use a colorimetric method to measure the entire metabolite content of each individual beetle. The present study reveals that mountain pine beetles are composed of more protein and lipid than carbohydrate. Both female and male mountain pine beetles use lipids and carbohydrates as energy sources during flight. There is variation between sexes, however, in the energy substrates used for flight. Male mountain pine beetles use protein, in addition to lipids and carbohydrates, to fuel flight, whereas protein content is not different between flown and control females.     

Mountain pine beetle selectivity in old‐growth ponderosa pine forests,Montana, USA

A historically unprecedented mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak affected western Montana during the past decade. We examined radial growth rates (AD 1860–2007/8) of co‐occurring mature healthy and MPB‐infected ponderosa pine trees collected at two sites (Cabin Gulch and Kitchen Gulch) in western Montana and: (1) compared basal area increment (BAI) values within populations and between sites; (2) used carbon isotope analysis to calculate intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) at Cabin Gulch; and (3) compared climate‐growth responses using a suite of monthly climatic variables. BAI values within populations and between sites were similar until the last 20–30 years, at which point the visually healthy populations had consistently higher BAI values (22–34%) than the MPB‐infected trees. These results suggest that growth rates two–three decades prior to the current outbreak diverged between our selected populations, with the slower‐growing trees being more vulnerable to beetle infestation. Both samples from Cabin Gulch experienced upward trends in iWUE, with significant regime shifts toward higher iWUE beginning in 1955–59 for the visually healthy trees and 1960–64 for the MPB‐infected trees. Drought tolerance also varied between the two populations with the visually healthy trees having higher growth rates than MPB‐infected trees prior to infection during a multi‐decadal period of drying summertime conditions. Intrinsic water‐use efficiency significantly increased for both populations during the past 150 years, but there were no significant differences between the visually healthy and MPB‐infected chronologies.     

Phase transition from environmental to dynamic determinism in mountain pine beetle attack

Mountain pine beetle outbreaks are responsible for widespread tree mortality in pine forests throughout western North America. Intensive outbreaks result in significant economic loss to the timber industry and massive changes to the forest habitat. Because of the time and space scales involved in a beetle outbreak, mathematical models are needed to study the evolution of an outbreak. In this paper we present a partial differential equation model of the flight phase of the mountain pine beetle which includes chemotactic responses and tree defense. We present a numerical method for integrating this model and use this method to investigate the relationship between emergence rate, forest demographic and patterns of beetle attack. In particular we look at how emergence rate affects the beetles' ability to successfully attack strong trees, which may be an indicator of an epidemic outbreak.