Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.     

Function and underlying mechanisms of seasonal colour moulting in mammals and birds: what keeps them changing in a warming world?

Animals that occupy temperate and polar regions have specialized traits that help them survive in harsh, highly seasonal environments. One particularly important adaptation is seasonal coat colour (SCC) moulting. Over 20 species of birds and mammals distributed across the northern hemisphere undergo complete, biannual colour change from brown in the summer to completely white in the winter. But as climate change decreases duration of snow cover, seasonally winter white species (including the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus, Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus and willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus) become highly contrasted against dark snowless backgrounds. The negative consequences of camouflage mismatch and adaptive potential is of high interest for conservation. Here we provide the first comprehensive review across birds and mammals of the adaptive value and mechanisms underpinning SCC moulting. We found that across species, the main function of SCC moults is seasonal camouflage against snow, and photoperiod is the main driver of the moult phenology. Next, although many underlying mechanisms remain unclear, mammalian species share similarities in some aspects of hair growth, neuroendocrine control, and the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on moult phenology. The underlying basis of SCC moults in birds is less understood and differs from mammals in several aspects. Lastly, our synthesis suggests that due to limited plasticity in SCC moulting, evolutionary adaptation will be necessary to mediate future camouflage mismatch and a detailed understanding of the SCC moulting will be needed to manage populations effectively under climate change.     

Climatic effects and phenological mismatch in cuckoo–host interactions: a role for host phenotypic plasticity in laying date?

Climatic effects on breeding phenology vary across organisms and therefore might promote a phenological mismatch in ecologically interacting species, including those engaged in coevolutionary interactions such as brood parasites and their hosts. Recent studies suggest that climatic induced changes in migration phenology may have mismatched cuckoos and their hosts in Europe. However, it is currently unknown whether cuckoo–host phenological mismatch results from different degrees of phenotypic plasticity or to different speeds of microevolutionary processes affecting hosts and parasites. Here we performed 1) cross‐sectional correlations between climate conditions and population level of phenological mismatch between the migratory brood parasite great spotted cuckoo Clamator glandarius and its main resident host in Europe, the magpie Pica pica; and 2) a longitudinal analysis to study within‐individual variation in breeding phenology for individual hosts experiencing different climate conditions over a period of nine years (2005–2013). Cross‐sectional analyses revealed independent and contrary effects of winter and spring temperature on magpie phenology: magpie hosts tend to breed earlier those years with lower February temperatures, however, high temperature in the first half of April spur individuals to lay eggs. Breeding phenology of cuckoos was tuned to that of their magpie host in time and duration. However, annual phenological mismatch between cuckoos and magpie hosts increased with NAO index and January temperature. Longitudinal analyses revealed high individual consistency in magpie host phenology, but a low influence of climate, suggesting that the climatic‐driven phenological mismatch between cuckoos and magpies at the population‐level cannot be explained by a host plastic response to climatic conditions.     

Ecological mismatches are moderated by local conditions for two populations of a long‐distance migratory bird

Ecological mismatches between reproductive events and seasonal resource peaks are frequently proposed to be a key driver of population dynamics resulting from global climate change. Many local populations are experiencing reduced reproductive success as a consequence of mismatches, but few mismatches have led to species‐level population declines. To better understand this apparent paradox, we investigated the breeding phenology and chick survival of two disjunct populations of Hudsonian godwits Limosa haemastica breeding at Churchill, Manitoba and Beluga River, Alaska. Only one population experienced a mismatch: godwits bred nearly one week after the onset of the invertebrate peak at Churchill because of asynchronous climatic change occurring throughout their annual cycle. However, chicks were not uniformly affected by the mismatch — growth rates and survival of young chicks were not correlated with invertebrate abundance, but older chicks tended to suffer lower survival rates on days of low invertebrate abundance. Ecological mismatches thus resulted in a complex array of consequences, but nonetheless contributed to reductions in chick survival. In contrast, godwits at Beluga River hatched their chicks just before the invertebrate peak, such that the period of highest energetic need coincided with the period of highest invertebrate abundance. As a result, growth rates and survival of godwit chicks were unaffected by invertebrate abundance. Godwits at Beluga River were able to properly time their reproduction because of predictable rates of climatic change and strong selection imposed by high predation on late‐hatched chicks. Taken together, our results suggest that population‐specific, local‐scale selection pressures play a critical role in determining the degree and severity of ecological mismatches. The potential for global climate change to induce species‐level population declines may therefore be mediated by the spatial variation in the selection pressures acting across a species’ range.     

Game theory sheds new light on ecological responses to current climate change when phenology is historically mismatched

Phenological changes are well documented biological effects of current climate change but their adaptive value and demographic consequences are poorly known. Game theoretical models have shown that deviating from the fitness-maximising phenology can be evolutionary stable under frequency-dependent selection. We study eco-evolutionary responses to climate change when the historical phenology is mismatched in this way. For illustration we model adaptation of arrival dates in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We simulate climate change by shifting the timing and the length of the favourable season for breeding. We show that initial trends in changes of population densities can be either reinforced or counteracted during the ensuing evolutionary adaptation. We find in total seven qualitatively different population trajectories during the transition to a new evolutionary equilibrium. This surprising diversity of eco-evolutionary responses provides adaptive explanations to the observed variation in phenological responses to recent climate change.     

Convergent evolution of seasonal camouflage in response to reduced snow cover across the snowshoe hare range*

Determining how different populations adapt to similar environments is fundamental to understanding the limits of adaptation under changing environments. Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) typically molt into white winter coats to remain camouflaged against snow. In some warmer climates, hares have evolved brown winter camouflage—an adaptation that may spread in response to climate change. We used extensive range-wide genomic data to (1) resolve broad patterns of population structure and gene flow and (2) investigate the factors shaping the origins and distribution of winter-brown camouflage variation. In coastal Pacific Northwest (PNW) populations, winter-brown camouflage is known to be determined by a recessive haplotype at the Agouti pigmentation gene. Our phylogeographic analyses revealed deep structure and limited gene flow between PNW and more northern Boreal populations, where winter-brown camouflage is rare along the range edge. Genome sequencing of a winter-brown snowshoe hare from Alaska shows that it lacks the winter-brown PNW haplotype, reflecting a history of convergent phenotypic evolution. However, the PNW haplotype does occur at low frequency in a winter-white population from Montana, consistent with the spread of a locally deleterious recessive variant that is masked from selection when rare. Simulations of this population further show that this masking effect would greatly slow the selective increase of the winter-brown Agouti allele should it suddenly become beneficial (e.g., owing to dramatic declines in snow cover). Our findings underscore how allelic dominance can shape the geographic extent and rate of convergent adaptation in response to rapidly changing environments.     

The annual cycle of molt in the Cape hare<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepus capensis</Emphasis> in northern China: pattern,timing and duration

Molt is an important life history event for mammals occurring in temperate and cold zones. In the present paper, I investigate the pattern, timing and duration of seasonal molts of the Cape haresLepus capensis Linnaeus, 1798 in northern China, by tracing and scoring the process of each molt quantitatively. All the seasonal molts in both overwintering and juvenile hares went through a similar order: midback (together with nape), flanks, belly, upper tail, and legs. Yet, there was a relatively confused pattern of replacement during the heaviest molting period of overwintering hares, compared to a relatively uniform pattern among juvenile hares. Overwintering hares experienced a spring and a fall molt. The fall molt was already initiated prior to completion of the spring molt and had a relatively short duration. Juveniles born early in the year (before July), before their fall molt, had undergone a postnatal molt, but those born late (July to September) had not. The juvenile fall molt had already begun when the postnatal molt was at its later stages. These facts suggest that the time budget for fall molt is tight and seasonally constrained. The timing and duration of molts in the overwintering and early-born juvenile hares were independent of individual age. Among overwintering hares, both sexes started spring molt synchronously, but the females were behind the males in late period of this molt and consequently further delayed throughout subsequent fall molt. This may be related to a higher cost of reproduction in females. No sexual difference was found in the molting progress of juvenile hares.     

Getting ready for the winter: Timing and determinants of molt in an alpine ungulate

Because growth of new hairs entails energetic costs, individual condition and access to food should determine the timing of molt. Previous studies on the timing of molt in ungulates have mostly focused on the influence of age class and reproductive status, but the effects of body condition and environmental phenology have not been evaluated. Our goal was to assess how intrinsic traits and environmental conditions determine the timing of winter coat shedding in a mountain goat population monitored for 27 years. The date of molt completion followed a U shape with age, suggesting that senescence occurs in terms of the molting process in mountain goats. Juveniles of both sexes delayed molting in a similar fashion, but molt timing differed between sexes during adulthood. Males molted progressively earlier until reaching age when reproduction peaked, after which they started delaying molting again. Females reached earliest molt dates at age of first reproduction and then progressively delayed molt date. Lactating females molted 10 days later than barren females on average, but this only occurred in females in good condition. Thus, although it has been shown that reproduction delays molt in ungulates, our results indicate that body condition can override this effect. Overall, our results revealed that access to both extrinsic and intrinsic resources is one of the key mechanisms driving molting processes in a mammalian herbivore.     

STRONG SELECTION GENOME‐WIDE ENHANCES FITNESS TRADE‐OFFS ACROSS ENVIRONMENTS AND EPISODES OF SELECTION

Fitness trade‐offs across episodes of selection and environments influence life‐history evolution and adaptive population divergence. Documenting these trade‐offs remains challenging as selection can vary in magnitude and direction through time and space. Here, we evaluate fitness trade‐offs at the levels of the whole organism and the quantitative trait locus (QTL) in a multiyear field study of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a genetically tractable mustard native to the Rocky Mountains. Reciprocal local adaptation was pronounced for viability, but not for reproductive components of fitness. Instead, local genomes had a fecundity advantage only in the high latitude garden. By estimating realized selection coefficients from individual‐level data on viability and reproductive success and permuting the data to infer significance, we examined the genetic basis of fitness trade‐offs. This analytical approach (Conditional Neutrality‐Antagonistic Pleiotropy, CNAP) identified genetic trade‐offs at a flowering phenology QTL (costs of adaptation) and revealed genetic trade‐offs across fitness components (costs of reproduction). These patterns would not have emerged from traditional ANOVA‐based QTL mapping. Our analytical framework can be applied to other systems to investigate fitness trade‐offs. This task is becoming increasingly important as climate change may alter fitness landscapes, potentially disrupting fitness trade‐offs that took many generations to evolve.     

A perspective on match/mismatch of phenology in community contexts

Climate change has significant impacts on phenology of various organisms in a species‐specific manner. Facing this problem, the match/mismatch hypothesis that phenological (a)synchrony with resource availability strongly influences recruitment success of a consumer population has recently received much attention. In this article, we discuss extending the conventional pairwise concept and demonstrate a community module‐based approach as an initial step for exploring community consequences of species‐specific phenological shifts caused by climate change. Our multispecies match/mismatch perspective leads to the prediction that phenological (a)synchrony among interacting species critically affects not only population recruitment of species but also key dynamical features of ecological communities such as trophic cascades, competitive hierarchies, and species coexistence. Explicit identification and consideration of species relationships is therefore desirable for a better understanding of seasonal community dynamics and thus community consequences of climate change‐induced phenological shifts.     

Phenology and sequence of the complete prealternate molt of Bobolinks in South America

ABSTRACT Molt phenology plays an important role in the annual cycles and energetic budgets of migratory birds. The timing and sequence of molt of Nearctic‐Neotropical migratory passerines is generally known for species that undergo a complete prebasic molt on or near the breeding grounds. However, for the few passerine species such as Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) that undergo a complete prealternate molt, the phenology of this molt on the wintering grounds has received little attention. Most studies evaluate prebasic molt, often carried out in conjunction with a different set of competing energetic demands and under dramatically different conditions (e.g., climate and food availability). The prebasic molt of Bobolinks has been described based on limited museum collections, but the sequence and phenology of the prealternate molt have not been examined. We collected molt data from 242 Bobolinks captured from January to March in Bolivia (2005–2007) and Argentina (2008). We quantified prealternate molt sequence and used a maximum likelihood approach to estimate molt initiation date and duration. We used AIC model selection to evaluate the potential effects of region, year, and sex on prealternate molt phenology. Onset and duration of molt did not differ among years or between males and females. Estimated molt duration was 13 d longer at Bolivia sites than at sites 1200 km further southeast in Argentina, but molt duration in Argentina varied and the difference was not statistically significant. Molt sequence was consistent among populations, and showed only slight deviations from what has been previously reported for Bobolinks. Our results suggest that regional wintering populations of Bobolinks do not mix in a given year, and local factors such as climate and food availability may influence molt phenology.     

Spatial processes and evolutionary models: a critical review

Evolution is a fundamentally population level process in which variation, drift and selection produce both temporal and spatial patterns of change. Statistical model fitting is now commonly used to estimate which kind of evolutionary process best explains patterns of change through time using models like Brownian motion, stabilizing selection (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck) and directional selection on traits measured from stratigraphic sequences or on phylogenetic trees. But these models assume that the traits possessed by a species are homogeneous. Spatial processes such as dispersal, gene flow and geographical range changes can produce patterns of trait evolution that do not fit the expectations of standard models, even when evolution at the local‐population level is governed by drift or a typical OU model of selection. The basic properties of population level processes (variation, drift, selection and population size) are reviewed and the relationship between their spatial and temporal dynamics is discussed. Typical evolutionary models used in palaeontology incorporate the temporal component of these dynamics, but not the spatial. Range expansions and contractions introduce rate variability into drift processes, range expansion under a drift model can drive directional change in trait evolution, and spatial selection gradients can create spatial variation in traits that can produce long‐term directional trends and punctuation events depending on the balance between selection strength, gene flow, extirpation probability and model of speciation. Using computational modelling that spatial processes can create evolutionary outcomes that depart from basic population‐level notions from these standard macroevolutionary models.     

Plasticity in laying dates of Canada Geese in response to spring phenology

Observed phenological changes can be explained either by individual phenotypic plasticity or by evolutionary changes, but there is more evidence pointing towards phenotypic plasticity to explain the mechanism behind changes in bird phenology. However, most studies on phenology have been conducted on insectivorous bird species for which breeding is closely tied to temperature and insect emergence. In this study, we examined the consequences of climatic conditions on the nesting phenology of temperate breeding Canada Geese Branta canadensis maxima, which rely on a continuous food supply, during a 14‐year period (2003–16). We determined whether laying dates were plastically adjusted to spring environmental conditions, and whether this adjustment resulted in a laying date advancement. We further estimated the strength and shape of selection acting on breeding timing, by looking at the effect of laying date on the relative number of young successfully hatched in a nest. We found that Geese plastically adjusted their laying date to spring maximum temperature (and not to precipitation or ice break‐up), resulting in a 9‐day advancement of laying date in the population for that period. Laying date was also moderately repeatable (r = 0.23) and subject to directional selection, but stabilizing selection was negligible. We thus demonstrate how Canada Geese plastically adjust laying dates to temperature, which may further be beneficial to nesting success. Evolutionary change of laying date to selection related to climate change, however, is still possible.     

Colour change of Mountain hares (Lepus timidus scoticus) in north-east Scotland

A two-year field study of colour change in a population of Mountain hares showed that the rate of colour change was significantly faster in a warm spring than in a cold one. The same result was found in individually marked wild hares, indicating that the response is not due to differences in age or sex ratios. It is postulated that the white coat is for camouflage, and the duration for which it is worn is correlated with temperature because of the coat's thickness. Moulting is probably timed by daylength, and the rate of moult affected by temperature.     

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long‐lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common‐garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change‐induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short‐term population survival in a changing climate.     

Seasonal climate effects on the survival of a hibernating mammal

Global climate change and associated regional climate variability is impacting the phenology of many species, ultimately altering individual fitness and population dynamics. Yet, few studies have considered the effects of pertinent seasonal climate variability on phenology and fitness. Hibernators may be particularly susceptible to changes in seasonal climate since they have a relatively short active season in which to reproduce and gain enough mass to survive the following winter. To understand whether and how seasonal climate variability may be affecting hibernator fitness, we estimated survival from historical (1964–1968) and contemporary (2014–2017) mark–recapture data collected from the same population of Uinta ground squirrels (UGS, Urocitellus armatus), a hibernator endemic to the western United States. Despite a locally warming climate, the phenology of UGS did not change over time, yet season‐specific climate variables were important in regulating survival rates. Specifically, older age classes experienced lower survival when winters or the following springs were warm, while juveniles benefited from warmer winter temperatures. Although metabolic costs decrease with decreasing temperature in the hibernacula, arousal costs increase with decreasing temperature. Our results suggest that this trade‐off is experienced differently by immature and mature individuals. We also observed an increase in population density during that time period, suggesting resources are less limited today than they used to be. Cheatgrass is now dominating the study site and may provide a better food source to UGS than native plants did historically.     

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology.     

Mismatches between breeding phenology and resource abundance of resident alpine ptarmigan negatively affect chick survival

相似文献   

The eco‐evolutionary consequences of interspecific phenological asynchrony – a theoretical perspective

The timing of biological events (phenology) is an important aspect of both a species’ life cycle and how it interacts with other species and its environment. Patterns of phenological change have been given much scientific attention, particularly recently in relation to climate change. For pairs of interacting species, if their rates of phenological change differ, then this may lead to asynchrony between them and disruption of their ecological interactions. However it is often difficult to interpret differential rates of phenological change and to predict their ecological and evolutionary consequences. We review theoretical results regarding this topic, with special emphasis on those arising from life history theory, evolutionary game theory and population dynamic models. Much ecological research on phenological change builds upon the concept of match/mismatch, so we start by putting forward a simple but general model that captures essential elements of this concept. We then systematically compare the predictions of this baseline model with expectations from theory in which additional ecological mechanisms and features of species life cycles are taken into account. We discuss the ways in which the fitness consequences of interspecific phenological asynchrony may be weak, strong, or idiosyncratic. We discuss theory showing that synchrony is not necessarily an expected evolutionary outcome, and how population densities are not necessarily maximized by adaptation, and the implications of these findings. By bringing together theoretical developments regarding the eco‐evolutionary consequences of phenological asynchrony, we provide an overview of available alternative hypotheses for interpreting empirical patterns as well as the starting point for the next generation of theory in this field.