Lesser Prairie-Chicken Survival in Varying Densities of Energy Development

Anthropogenic features increasingly affect ecological processes with increasing human demand for natural resources. Such effects also have the potential to vary depending on the sex and age of an individual because of inherent behavioral and life experience differences. For the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), studies on male survival are limited because most previous research has been focused on females. To better understand patterns of lesser prairie-chicken survival in habitat with varying levels of anthropogenic infrastructure associated with oil and natural gas development, we monitored survival of 178 radio-tagged male and female lesser prairie-chickens in eastern New Mexico, USA, from 2013 to 2015. We examined the relationships of shrub cover, proximity to and density of anthropogenic features (i.e., utility poles), displacement of natural vegetation by anthropogenic features (i.e., area of roads and well pads), and individual demographics (i.e., sex, age) with lesser prairie-chicken survival. Furthermore, we categorized the probable cause of mortality and examined its relationship with oil and gas development intensity (indexed by utility pole density) within 1,425 m of an individual's mortality site or final observed location. We predicted that survival would be lower for individuals exposed to greater levels of anthropogenic features, and that males and subadults would be more negatively affected than females and adults because of increased exposure to predators during the lekking season and naiveté. Relationships between survival and utility pole density, sex, and age were supported in our top-ranked models, whereas models including other anthropogenic and natural features (i.e., roads, well pads, shrub cover) received little support. We predicted a substantial decrease in adult and subadult male survival with increasing densities of utility poles. The relationship between survival and utility pole density for females was weaker and not as clearly supported as for males. We did not find a detectable difference in utility pole counts among probable mortality causes. Our findings highlight the importance of including male lesser prairie-chickens in research and conservation planning, and the negative effect that high densities of anthropogenic features can have on lesser prairie-chicken survival. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Climate Change Increases Reproductive Failure in Magellanic Penguins

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense storms, and climate models predict this trend will continue, potentially affecting wildlife populations. Since 1960 the number of days with >20 mm of rain increased near Punta Tombo, Argentina. Between 1983 and 2010 we followed 3496 known-age Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) chicks at Punta Tombo to determine how weather impacted their survival. In two years, rain was the most common cause of death killing 50% and 43% of chicks. In 26 years starvation killed the most chicks. Starvation and predation were present in all years. Chicks died in storms in 13 of 28 years and in 16 of 233 storms. Storm mortality was additive; there was no relationship between the number of chicks killed in storms and the numbers that starved (P = 0.75) or that were eaten (P = 0.39). However, when more chicks died in storms, fewer chicks fledged (P = 0.05, R ² = 0.14). More chicks died when rainfall was higher and air temperature lower. Most chicks died from storms when they were 9–23 days old; the oldest chick killed in a storm was 41 days old. Storms with heavier rainfall killed older chicks as well as more chicks. Chicks up to 70 days old were killed by heat. Burrow nests mitigated storm mortality (N = 1063). The age span of chicks in the colony at any given time increased because the synchrony of egg laying decreased since 1983, lengthening the time when chicks are vulnerable to storms. Climate change that increases the frequency and intensity of storms results in more reproductive failure of Magellanic penguins, a pattern likely to apply to many species breeding in the region. Climate variability has already lowered reproductive success of Magellanic penguins and is likely undermining the resilience of many other species.     

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.     

Spatial Variation in Lesser Prairie-Chicken Demography: A Sensitivity Analysis of Population Dynamics and Management Alternatives

ABSTRACT The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is currently considered a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act. To identify potential limiting factors for lesser prairie-chicken populations, we developed an age-based matrix model of lesser prairie-chicken population dynamics to compare the relative importance of components of reproduction and survival, and determine if various management alternatives stabilize or increase rates of population change. We based our analyses on an intensive 6-year population study from which demographic rates were estimated for each age class in Kansas. We used deterministic models and elasticity values to identify parameters predicted to have the greatest effect on the rate of population change (λ) at 2 study sites. Last, we used life-stage simulation analysis to simulate various management alternatives. Lambda was <1 for both populations (site 1: λ = 0.54, site 2: λ = 0.74). However, we found differences in sensitivity to nest success and chick survival between populations. The results of the simulated management scenarios complemented the lower-level elasticity analysis and indicated the relative importance of female survival during the breeding season compared with winter. If management practices are only capable of targeting a single demographic rate, changes to either nest success or chick survival had the greatest impact on λ at site 1 and 2, respectively. Management that simultaneously manipulated both nest success and chick survival was predicted to have a greater effect on λ than changes in survival of adult females. In practice, our demographic analyses indicate that effective management should be based on habitat conservation measures to increase components of fecundity.     

Rangewide genetic analysis of Lesser Prairie-Chicken reveals population structure,range expansion,and possible introgression

The distribution of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) has been markedly reduced due to loss and fragmentation of habitat. Portions of the historical range, however, have been recolonized and even expanded due to planting of conservation reserve program (CRP) fields that provide favorable vegetation structure for Lesser Prairie-Chickens. The source population(s) feeding the range expansion is unknown, yet has resulted in overlap between Lesser and Greater Prairie-Chickens (T. cupido) increasing the potential for hybridization. Our objectives were to characterize connectivity and genetic diversity among populations, identify source population(s) of recent range expansion, and examine hybridization with the Greater Prairie-Chicken. We analyzed 640 samples from across the range using 13 microsatellites. We identified three to four populations corresponding largely to ecoregions. The Shinnery Oak Prairie and Sand Sagebrush Prairie represented genetically distinct populations (F _ST > 0.034 and F _ST > 0.023 respectively). The Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic and Mixed Grass ecoregions appeared admixed (F _ST = 0.009). Genetic diversity was similar among ecoregions and N _e ranged from 142 (95 % CI 99–236) for the Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic to 296 (95 % CI 233–396) in the Mixed Grass Prairie. No recent migration was detected among ecoregions, except asymmetric dispersal from both the Mixed Grass Prairie and to a lesser extent the Sand Sagebrush Prairie north into adjacent Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic (m = 0.207, 95 % CI 0.116–0.298, m = 0.097, 95 % CI 0.010–0.183, respectively). Indices investigating potential hybridization in the Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic revealed that six of the 13 individuals with hybrid phenotypes were significantly admixed suggesting hybridization. Continued monitoring of diversity within and among ecoregions is warranted as are actions promoting genetic connectivity and range expansion.     

The Parasitic Eyeworm Oxyspirura petrowi as a Possible Cause of Decline in the Threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus)

Lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) have been declining range wide since the early 1900''s despite efforts to establish conservation and improve their habitat. In early 2014, the lesser prairie-chicken was listed as a threatened species under the U.S Endangered Species Act and the need to find out why they are declining is more important than ever. Nine hunter shot lesser prairie-chickens were donated and sampled for the presence or absence of the eyeworm Oxyspirura petrowi, a known parasite that can cause damage to the eye of its host, and common environmental contaminants. Eyeworm infection was found in 7 of 9 birds (78% infection rate) with an infection range between 0–16 O. petrowi per bird. Breast, liver, and fat tissue samples from the lesser prairie-chickens were analyzed for the frequency of 20 organochlorine pesticides. Femurs and livers were also tested on these birds for metal contaminants. Pesticides were found in several samples above the detection limits but were still in the low ng/g range. Notable was the ubiquitous presence of endrin aldehyde across all tissues. One femur showed 5.66 µg/g of lead (Pb) but this is still relatively low. No liver samples had elevated mercury (Hg) above detection limits. The presence of these organochlorines is consistent with the historic use of pesticides in this region. With pesticide and metals found in such low levels and parasitic nematode infections at rather high levels, it is recommended that these parasites be further evaluated as a contributing factor to the decline of the lesser prairie-chicken.     

The Influence of Climate Change on the Restoration Trajectory of a Nutrient-Rich Deep Lake

Ecosystems - Nutrient reduction in impacted lowland freshwater systems is ecologically and culturally important. Gaining a greater insight into how lakes respond to lowering nutrient loads and how...     

The Influence of Science Communication on Indigenous Climate Change Perception: Theoretical and Practical Implications

Citizens receive information on global climate change through both observation of local impacts and reception of climate science. This article presents a quantitative analysis of the interplay of these two sources of information in an indigenous population: residents of Majuro, the capital city of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. While Majuro residents’ reports of local environmental change are partly the result of firsthand observation of changing conditions, survey data robustly demonstrates that environmental change reports are also strongly influenced by awareness of climate science; scientific awareness is a better predictor of environmental change reports than exposure to the environment. This provides a rare quantitative demonstration of the openness of ‘local’ knowledge to foreign scientific information; challenges research methodologies for the study of indigenous climate change perceptions that exclude the role of scientific communication; and suggests a novel, and overlooked, rationale for the dissemination of climate science to frontline communities.     

Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.     

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa''s Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4^th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.     

The Effects of Weather and Climate Change on Dengue

Background

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors.

Methods and Findings

Using a Generalized Additive Model, we estimated statistically significant effects of weather and access to piped water on dengue. The effects of weather were highly nonlinear. Minimum temperature (Tmin) had almost no effect on dengue incidence below 5°C, but Tmin values above 18°C showed a rapidly increasing effect. Maximum temperature above 20°C also showed an increasing effect on dengue incidence with a peak around 32°C, after which the effect declined. There is also an increasing effect of precipitation as it rose to about 550 mm, beyond which such effect declines. Rising access to piped water was related to increasing dengue incidence. We used our model estimations to project the potential impact of climate change on dengue incidence under three emission scenarios by 2030, 2050, and 2080. An increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence by 2080 was estimated under climate change while holding the other driving factors constant.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that weather significantly influences dengue incidence in Mexico and that such relationships are highly nonlinear. These findings highlight the importance of using flexible model specifications when analysing weather–health interactions. Climate change may contribute to an increase in dengue incidence. Rising access to piped water may aggravate dengue incidence if it leads to increased domestic water storage. Climate change may therefore influence the success or failure of future efforts against dengue.     

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.     

Effects of Climate Change on Birds

2010, Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK

344 pages, hardcover or paperback, 75 black-and-white illustrations, and a four-page color plate section

ISBN 978-0-19-956974-8 (hardcover), 978-0-19-956975-5 (softcover). Price R575     

全球气候变化对野生动物的影响

人类活动所引起的温室气体增加以及由此造成的全球气候变化和对全球生态环境的影响正越来越引起人们的关注,在全球气候变化对野生动物影响的研究中发现,随着全球气温变暖,野生动物的分布区整体上向北移,物修期提前,动物的繁殖及其种群大小,不同的种类做出不同的响应,有的受益于全球变暖,繁殖增加,成活率高,种群壮大,有的受制于这一变化,种群逐渐缩小甚至面临灭绝的威胁,总的来看,全球气候变暖使更多的野生动物无所适从,因此,加强对气候变化在不同层面上对野生动物影响机制的研究,调整野生动物保护措施,对野生动物及其生境的保护,维持生态系统多样性将显得十分重要。     

The Role of Biota in Global Climate Change

The problem of global climate change is analyzed in the context of the balance of interdependent biotic sources and reservoirs of greenhouse gases in the continental part of northern Eurasia. Current problems are identified and the prospects for further studies of the problem are outlined.     

Influence of Climate Change on Productivity of American White Pelicans,Pelecanus erythrorhynchos

In the past decade, severe weather and West Nile virus were major causes of chick mortality at American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) colonies in the northern plains of North America. At one of these colonies, Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge in North Dakota, spring arrival by pelicans has advanced approximately 16 days over a period of 44 years (1965–2008). We examined phenology patterns of pelicans and timing of inclement weather through the 44-year period, and evaluated the consequence of earlier breeding relative to weather-related chick mortality. We found severe weather patterns to be random through time, rather than concurrently shifting with the advanced arrival of pelicans. In recent years, if nest initiations had followed the phenology patterns of 1965 (i.e., nesting initiated 16 days later), fewer chicks likely would have died from weather-related causes. That is, there would be fewer chicks exposed to severe weather during a vulnerable transition period that occurs between the stage when chicks are being brooded by adults and the stage when chicks from multiple nests become part of a thermally protective crèche.     

The Effect of Information Provision on Public Consensus about Climate Change

Despite over 20 years of research and scientific consensus on the topic, climate change continues to be a politically polarizing issue. We conducted a survey experiment to test whether providing the public with information on the exact extent of scientific agreement about the occurrence and causes of climate change affects respondents’ own beliefs and bridges the divide between conservatives and liberals. First, we show that the public significantly underestimated the extent of the scientific consensus. We then find that those given concrete information about scientists’ views were more likely to report believing that climate change was already underway and that it was caused by humans. However, their beliefs about the necessity of making policy decisions and their willingness to donate money to combat climate change were not affected. Information provision affected liberals, moderates, and conservatives similarly, implying that the gap in beliefs between liberals and conservatives is not likely to be bridged by information treatments similar to the one we study. Finally, we conducted a 6-month follow-up with respondents to see if the treatment effect persisted; the results were statistically inconclusive.     

Gender Specific Reproductive Strategies of an Arctic Key Species (Boreogadus saida) and Implications of Climate Change

The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today''s Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain.