Predictors of interstitial lung disease in early systemic sclerosis: a prospective longitudinal study of the GENISOS cohort

Introduction

The objective of the present study was to examine the association of baseline demographic and clinical characteristics with sequentially obtained measurements of forced vital capacity (FVC), expressed as a percentage of the predicted value, and to identify predictors of the decline rate in FVC over time in the Genetics versus Environment in Scleroderma Outcome Study (GENISOS).

Methods

To date, 266 patients have been enrolled in GENISOS, a prospective, observational cohort of patients with early systemic sclerosis. In addition to pulmonary function tests (PFTs), clinical and laboratory data were obtained from each patient. We analyzed 926 FVC measurements utilizing generalized linear mixed models. The predictive significance of baseline variables for the decline rate in FVC was investigated by the interaction term between the variable and the follow-up time within the first 3 years after enrollment as well as throughout the entire follow-up time.

Results

The cohort consisted of 125 white, 54 African American, and 77 Hispanic patients with average disease duration of 2.5 years at enrollment. The mean follow-up time was 3.8 years, ranging up to 11.4 years. A number of baseline variables, including antibody status, African American ethnicity, disease type, baseline PFT values, modified Rodnan Skin Score, fibrosis on chest radiograph, and lung and skin subscores of the Severity Index, were associated with serially measured FVC levels. However, only the presence of anti-topoisomerase I antibodies (ATA) was associated with lower FVC levels (P < 0.001) as well as accelerated decline rate in FVC within the first 3 years of follow-up (P = 0.02). None of the baseline variables predicted the rate of decline in FVC on long-term follow-up. Patients with rapidly progressive ILD, however, were under-represented in the long-term follow-up group because the accelerated rate of decline in FVC was associated with poor survival (P = 0.001).

Conclusions

Presence of ATA was the only baseline variable associated with differential FVC levels, predicting the rate of decline in FVC within the first 3 years of follow-up. The association of faster decline in FVC with poor survival further emphasizes the need for identification of predictive biomarkers by collection of genetic information and serial blood samples in cohort studies.     

Predictors of the first cardiovascular event in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus - a prospective cohort study

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of premature mortality among Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Many studies have measured and evaluated risk factors for premature subclinical atherosclerosis, but few studies are prospective and few have evaluated risk factors for hard endpoints, i.e. clinically important cardiovascular events (CVE). We investigated the impact of traditional and lupus associated risk factors for the first ever CVE in a longitudinal cohort of SLE patients.

Methods

A total of 182 SLE patients (mean age 43.9 years) selected to be free of CVE were included. Cardiovascular and autoimmune biomarkers were measured on samples collected after overnight fasting at baseline. Clinical information was collected at baseline and at follow up. End point was the first ever CVE (ischemic heart, cerebrovascular or peripheral vascular disease or death due to CVD). Impact of baseline characteristics/biomarkers on the risk of having a first CVE was evaluated with Cox regression.

Results

Follow up was 99.5% after a mean time of 8.3 years. Twenty-four patients (13%) had a first CVE. In age-adjusted Cox regression, any positive antiphospholipid antibody (aPL), elevated markers of endothelial activation (von Willebrand factor (vWf), soluble vascular cellular adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1)) and fibrinogen predicted CVEs. Of SLE manifestations, arthritis, pleuritis and previous venous occlusion were positively associated with future CVEs while thrombocytopenia was negatively associated. Among traditional risk factors only age and smoking were significant predictors. In a multivariable Cox regression model age, any positive aPL, vWf and absence of thrombocytopenia were all predictors of the first CVE.

Conclusions

In addition to age, positive aPL, biomarkers indicating increased endothelial cell activity/damage, and absence of thrombocytopenia were independent predictors of CVEs in this prospective study. Our results indicate that activation of the endothelium and the coagulation system are important features in SLE related CVD. Furthermore, we observed that the risk of CVEs seems to differ between subgroups of SLE patients.     

Charting the progression of disability in parkinson disease: study protocol for a prospective longitudinal cohort study

Background  

People with Parkinson disease (PD), even in the presence of symptomatic relief from medical, surgical, and rehabilitative interventions, face a persistent worsening of disability. This disability is characterized by diminished quality of life, reduced functional mobility, declining performance in activities of daily living and worsening neurological impairments. While evidence has emerged supporting the clinically meaningful benefits of short-term exercise programs on these underlying factors, assertions regarding the effects of sustained programs of exercise and physical activity on the trajectory of disablement in PD are made in the absence of direct evidence. Indeed, the natural decline in quality of life and functional mobility in people diagnosed with PD is poorly understood. Moreover, outcome measures commonly used in clinical exercise trials typically do not capture the full spectrum of disability as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO).     

Serum nitrated nucleosome levels in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study

Introduction

Circulating nucleosomes released from apoptotic cells are important in the pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Both nucleosomes and anti-nucleosome antibodies are deposited in inflamed tissues in patients with SLE. Active inflammation promotes nitration of tyrosine residues on serum proteins. Our hypothesis was that levels of nitrated nucleosomes would be elevated in patients with SLE and could be associated with disease activity. We therefore carried out a retrospective longitudinal study to investigate factors affecting levels of nitrated nucleosomes (NN) in patients with SLE.

Methods

A novel serum ELISA was developed to measure serum NN and modified to measure serum nitrated albumin (NA). Levels of both NN and NA were measured in 397 samples from 49 patients with SLE followed through periods of disease flare and remission for a mean of 89 months. Anti-nucleosome antibody (anti-nuc) levels were measured in the same samples. The effects of 24 different clinical, demographic and serological variables on NN, NA and anti-nuc levels were assessed by univariable and multivariable analysis.

Results

Patients with SLE had higher mean NN than healthy controls or patients with other autoimmune rheumatic diseases (P =0.01). Serum samples from 18 out of 49 (36.7%) of SLE patients were never positive for NN. This group of 18 patients was characterized by lower anti-double stranded DNA antibodies (anti-dsDNA), disease activity and use of immunosuppressants. In the remaining 63.3%, NN levels were variable. High NN was significantly associated with anti-Sm antibodies, vasculitis, immunosuppressants, hydroxychloroquine and age at diagnosis. NN levels were raised in neuropsychiatric flares. NN levels did not completely parallel NA results, thus providing additional information over measuring nitration status alone. NN levels were not associated with anti-nuc levels.

Conclusions

NN are raised in a subset of patients with SLE, particularly those who are anti-Sm positive. Elevated NN may be a marker of vascular activation and neuropsychiatric flares in these patients.     

First-borns carry a higher metabolic risk in early adulthood: evidence from a prospective cohort study

Background

Birth order has been associated with early growth variability and subsequent increased adiposity, but the consequent effects of increased fat mass on metabolic risk during adulthood have not been assessed. We aimed to quantify the metabolic risk in young adulthood of being first-born relative to those born second or subsequently.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Body composition and metabolic risk were assessed in 2,249 men, aged 17–19 years, from a birth cohort in southern Brazil. Metabolic risk was assessed using a composite z-score integrating standardized measurements of blood pressure, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein, triglycerides and fat mass. First-borns had lower birth weight z-score (Δ = −0.25, 95%CI −0.35, −0.15,p<0.001) but showed greater weight gain during infancy (change in weight z-score from birth to 20 months: Δ = 0.39, 95%CI 0.28–0.50, p<0.0001) and had greater mean height (Δ = 1.2 cm, 95%CI: 0.7–1.6, p<0.0001) and weight (Δ = 0.34 kg, 95%CI: 0.13–0.55, p<0.002) at 43 months. This greater weight and height tracked into early adulthood, with first-borns being significantly taller, heavier and with significantly higher fat mass than later-borns. The metabolic risk z-score was significantly higher in first-borns.

Conclusions/Significance

First-born status is associated with significantly elevated adiposity and metabolic risk in young adult men in Brazil. Our results, linking cardiovascular risk with life history variables, suggest that metabolic risk may be associated with the worldwide trend to smaller family size and it may interact with changes in behavioural or environmental risk factors.     

Pneumococcal meningitis in childhood: a longitudinal prospective study

After implementation of programmes for active immunization against Haemophilus influenzae b, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis became the most common agents of bacterial meningitis in childhood. Over a 9-year period, children showing clinical and laboratory findings of meningitis on the basis of their positive cultures of blood or cerebro-spinal fluid (CSF) for S. pneumoniae were enrolled. Predisposing conditions, clinical and laboratory findings, and microbiological and imaging studies were considered. Meningitis-related death or neurological sequelae defined an unfavourable outcome. Sixty-four patients met the inclusion criteria. Thirty-one (48%) children had predisposing conditions to pneumococcal meningitis. Fever and neck stiffness were the main symptoms; 14 patients (22%) reported seizures before admission. Twenty-one patients required treatment in the intensive care unit (ICU). Streptococcus pneumoniae strains were penicillin susceptible in 54 cases (84%). Forty-eight children (75%) showed complete recovery. Two patients (3%) died, and 14 (22%) had sequelae. Patients with a low CSF cell count, low neutrophils, early admission to ICU or infection by penicillin-nonsusceptible strains of S. pneumoniae had an unfavourable outcome more frequently. Low blood neutrophils, low CSF cell count, early admission to ICU and infection by penicillin-nonsusceptible strains are the main factors predicting an unfavourable outcome in children with pneumococcal meningitis.     

Research of the Holiday kind: Tabulating Ingestion of Mocha Solution (TIMS): a longitudinal prospective cohort study

The annual "Roll Up the Rim to Win" contest at Tim Hortons restaurants provides customers the opportunity to win prizes. This study investigated win ratios, prize types and patterns of coffee consumption.     

Variability over time and correlates of cholesterol and blood pressure in systemic lupus erythematosus: a longitudinal cohort study

Introduction  

Total cholesterol (TC) and blood pressure (BP) are likely to take a dynamic course over time in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This would have important implications in terms of using single-point-in-time measurements of these variables to assess coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. The objective of this study was to describe and quantify variability over time of TC and BP among patients with SLE and to determine their correlates.     

Prognostic impact of coronary microcirculation abnormalities in systemic sclerosis: a prospective study to evaluate the role of non-invasive tests

Introduction

Microcirculation dysfunction is a typical feature of systemic sclerosis (SSc) and represents the earliest abnormality of primary myocardial involvement. We assessed coronary microcirculation status by combining two functional tests in SSc patients and estimating its impact on disease outcome.

Methods

Forty-one SSc patients, asymptomatic for coronary artery disease, were tested for coronary flow velocity reserve (CFR) by transthoracic-echo-Doppler with adenosine infusion (A-TTE) and for left ventricular wall motion abnormalities (WMA) by dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE). Myocardial multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) enabled the presence of epicardial stenosis, which could interfere with the accuracy of the tests, to be excluded. Patient survival rate was assessed over a 6.7- ± 3.5-year follow-up.

Results

Nineteen out of 41 (46%) SSc patients had a reduced CFR (≤2.5) and in 16/41 (39%) a WMA was observed during DSE. Furthermore, 13/41 (32%) patients showed pathological CFR and WMA. An inverse correlation between wall motion score index (WMSI) during DSE and CFR value (r = -0.57, P <0.0001) was observed; in addition, CFR was significantly reduced (2.21 ± 0.38) in patients with WMA as compared to those without (2.94 ± 0.60) (P <0.0001). In 12 patients with abnormal DSE, MDCT was used to exclude macrovasculopathy. During a 6.7- ± 3.5-year follow-up seven patients with abnormal coronary functional tests died of disease-related causes, compared to only one patient with normal tests.

Conclusions

A-TTE and DSE tests are useful tools to detect non-invasively pre-clinical microcirculation abnormalities in SSc patients; moreover, abnormal CFR and WMA might be related to a worse disease outcome suggesting a prognostic value of these tests, similar to other myocardial diseases.     

Histopathological cutaneous alterations in systemic sclerosis: a clinicopathological study

Introduction  

The aims of the present study were to identify histopathological parameters which are linked to local clinical skin disease at two distinct anatomical sites in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients with skin involvement (limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis (lcSSc) or diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc)) and to determine the sensitivity of SSc specific histological alterations, focusing on SSc patients without clinical skin involvement (limited SSc (lSSc)).     

Risk factors for cardiovascular mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus,a prospective cohort study

Introduction

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is common and a major cause of mortality. Studies on cardiovascular morbidity are abundant, whereas mortality studies focusing on cardiovascular outcomes are scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate causes of death and baseline predictors of overall (OM), non-vascular (N-VM), and specifically cardiovascular (CVM) mortality in SLE, and to evaluate systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE).

Methods

208 SLE patients were included 1995-1999 and followed up after 12 years. Clinical evaluation, CVD risk factors, and biomarkers were recorded at inclusion. Death certificates and autopsy protocols were collected. Causes of death were divided into CVM (ischemic vascular and general atherosclerotic diseases), N-VM and death due to pulmonary hypertension. Predictors of mortality were investigated using multivariable Cox regression. SCORE and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated.

Results

During follow-up 42 patients died at mean age of 62 years. SMR 2.4 (CI 1.7-3.0). 48% of deaths were caused by CVM. SCORE underestimated CVM but not to a significant level. Age, high cystatin C levels and established arterial disease were the strongest predictors for all- cause mortality. After adjusting for these in multivariable analyses, only smoking among traditional risk factors, and high soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), anti-beta2 glycoprotein-1 (abeta2GP1) and any antiphospholipid antibody (aPL) among biomarkers, remained predictive of CVM.

Conclusion

With the exception of smoking, traditional risk factors do not capture the main underlying risk factors for CVM in SLE. Rather, cystatin C levels, inflammatory and endothelial markers, and antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) differentiate patients with favorable versus severe cardiovascular prognosis. Our results suggest that these new biomarkers are useful in evaluating the future risk of cardiovascular mortality in SLE patients.     

Low consumption of seafood in early pregnancy as a risk factor for preterm delivery: prospective cohort study

Objective To determine the relation between intake of seafood in pregnancy and risk of preterm delivery and low birth weight.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting Aarhus, Denmark.Participants8729 pregnant women.Results The occurrence of preterm delivery differed significantly across four groups of seafood intake, falling progressively from 7.1% in the group never consuming fish to 1.9% in the group consuming fish as a hot meal and an open sandwich with fish at least once a week. Adjusted odds for preterm delivery were increased by a factor of 3.6 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 11.2) in the zero consumption group compared with the highest consumption group. Analyses based on quantified intakes indicated that the working range of the dose-response relation is mainly from zero intake up to a daily intake of 15 g fish or 0.15 g n-3 fatty acids. Estimates of risk for low birth weight were similar to those for preterm delivery.Conclusions Low consumption of fish was a strong risk factor for preterm delivery and low birth weight. In women with zero or low intake of fish, small amounts of n-3 fatty acids—provided as fish or fish oil—may confer protection against preterm delivery and low birth weight.

What is already known on this topic

Long chain n-3 fatty acids in amounts above 2 g a day may delay spontaneous delivery and prevent recurrence of preterm deliveryLarge studies have not been carried out to determine to what extent low consumption of n-3 fatty acids is a risk factor for preterm deliveryThe dose-response relation has not been described

What this study adds

Low consumption of fish seems to be a strong risk factor for preterm delivery and low birth weight in Danish womenThis relation is strongest below an estimated daily intake of 0.15 g long chain n-3 fatty acids or 15 g fish     

Potential role of the lectin pathway of complement in the pathogenesis and disease manifestations of systemic sclerosis: a case-control and cohort study

Introduction

Repetitive episodes of ischemia and reperfusion (I/R) are a cardinal feature of the pathogenesis of systemic sclerosis (SSc), which precedes tissue fibrosis. The complement system is a key mediator of tissue damage after I/R, primarily by activation of the lectin pathway. This study investigated whether serum levels and polymorphisms of mannose-binding lectin (MBL) and ficolin-2 (FCN2), two pattern recognition receptors of the lectin pathway, are associated with the predisposition to and clinical features of SSc.

Methods

A case-control study was undertaken involving 90 patients with SSc from a single SSc outpatient clinic and 90 age- and sex-matched blood donors. MBL and FCN2 levels and polymorphisms were measured in both groups, and in cases correlated with clinical data.

Results

MBL levels and genotypes were equally distributed in cases and controls while there were some significant differences in FCN2 polymorphisms. Median MBL levels were higher in SSc cases with diffuse disease compared with controls (2.6 versus 1.0 μg/ml, P <0.001).In cases, higher MBL levels were associated with the presence of clinical findings associated with vascular dysfunction and local tissue damage (digital ulcers, calcinosis and pitting). Moreover, MBL levels were associated with fibrotic disease manifestations as evidenced by the presence of diffuse disease (median 2.6 versus 0.8 μg/ml, P = 0.002), the modified Rodnan skin score (r = 0.39, P <0.001), and interstitial lung disease as measured by forced vital capacity (r = −0.33, P = 0.001). Importantly, MBL levels also correlated with the Scleroderma Health Assessment Questionnaire scores (r = 0.33, P = 0.002). The results for FCN2 levels were less striking. Phenotypic MBL results were largely confirmed by analysis of MBL polymorphisms. MBL levels were not associated with the presence of autoantibodies or hypocomplementaemia.

Conclusions

Overall, predisposition to SSc was not influenced by the lectin pathway of complement in our matched case-control study. However, our preliminary data suggest that MBL, and to a lesser extent FCN2, may modulate disease manifestations of SSc, particularly in diffuse cutaneous disease.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13075-014-0480-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Predictors of poor perinatal outcome following maternal perception of reduced fetal movements--a prospective cohort study

Background

Maternal perception of reduced fetal movement (RFM) is associated with increased risk of stillbirth and fetal growth restriction (FGR). RFM is thought to represent fetal compensation to conserve energy due to insufficient oxygen and nutrient transfer resulting from placental insufficiency.

Objective

To identify predictors of poor perinatal outcome after maternal perception of reduced fetal movements (RFM).

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Methods

305 women presenting with RFM after 28 weeks of gestation were recruited. Demographic factors and clinical history were recorded and ultrasound performed to assess fetal biometry, liquor volume and umbilical artery Doppler. A maternal serum sample was obtained for measurement of placentally-derived or modified proteins including: alpha fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), human placental lactogen (hPL), ischaemia-modified albumin (IMA), pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and progesterone. Factors related to poor perinatal outcome were determined by logistic regression.

Results

22.1% of pregnancies ended in a poor perinatal outcome after RFM. The most common complication was small-for-gestational age infants. Pregnancy outcome after maternal perception of RFM was related to amount of fetal activity while being monitored, abnormal fetal heart rate trace, diastolic blood pressure, estimated fetal weight, liquor volume, serum hCG and hPL. Following multiple logistic regression abnormal fetal heart rate trace (Odds ratio 7.08, 95% Confidence Interval 1.31–38.18), (OR) diastolic blood pressure (OR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.09), estimated fetal weight centile (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94–0.97) and log maternal serum hPL (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02–0.99) were independently related to pregnancy outcome. hPL was related to placental mass.

Conclusion

Poor perinatal outcome after maternal perception of RFM is closely related to factors which are connected to placental dysfunction. Novel tests of placental function and associated fetal response may provide improved means to detect fetuses at greatest risk of poor perinatal outcome after RFM.     

Predictors of normotension on withdrawal of antihypertensive drugs in elderly patients: prospective study in second Australian national blood pressure study cohort

ObjectivesTo identify simple long term predictors of maintenance of normotension after withdrawal of antihypertensive drugs in elderly patients in general practice.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting169 general practices in Victoria, Australia.Participants503 patients aged 65-84 with treated hypertension who were withdrawn from all antihypertensive drugs and remained drug free and normotensive for an initial two week period; all were followed for a further 12 months.ResultsThe likelihood of remaining normotensive at 12 months was greater among younger patients (65-74 years), patients with lower “on-treatment” systolic blood pressure, patients on single agent treatment, and patients with a greater waist:hip ratio. The likelihood of return to hypertension was greatest for patients with higher “on-treatment” systolic blood pressure.ConclusionsAge, blood pressure control, and the number of antihypertensive drugs are important factors in the clinical decision to withdraw drug treatment. Because of consistent rates of return to antihypertensive treatment, all patients from whom such treatment is withdrawn should be monitored indefinitely to detect a recurrence of hypertension.

What is already known on this topic

Systematic reviews have identified predictors of success of withdrawal of antihypertensive medicationThe reviewed studies have mainly been in a hospital or specialist clinic setting, and their recommendations may not be practical in general practice

What this paper adds

This study has identified simple predictors of success that are readily available to general practitionersOn-treatment systolic blood pressure, the number of blood pressure lowering drugs, and the age of the patient are reliable indicators of who may successfully stop taking their drugsGeneral practitioner practitioners should not be dissuaded from offering drug withdrawal to patients with greater waist:hip ratios     

Predictors of Chikungunya rheumatism: a prognostic survey ancillary to the TELECHIK cohort study

Introduction

Long-lasting relapsing or lingering rheumatic musculoskeletal pain (RMSP) is the hallmark of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) rheumatism (CHIK-R). Little is known on their prognostic factors. The aim of this prognostic study was to search the determinants of lingering or relapsing RMSP indicative of CHIK-R.

Methods

Three hundred and forty-six infected adults (age ≥ 15 years) having declared RMSP at disease onset were extracted from the TELECHIK cohort study, Reunion island, and analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression model. We also searched for the predictors of CHIKV-specific IgG titres, assessed at the time of a serosurvey, using multiple linear regression analysis.

Results

Of these, 111 (32.1%) reported relapsing RMSP, 150 (43.3%) lingering RMSP, and 85 (24.6%) had fully recovered (reference group) on average two years after acute infection. In the final model controlling for gender, the determinants of relapsing RMSP were the age 45-59 years (adjusted OR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.0, 8.6) or greater or equal than 60 years (adjusted OR: 10.4, 95% CI: 3.5, 31.1), severe rheumatic involvement (fever, at least six joints plus four other symptoms) at presentation (adjusted OR: 3.6, 95% CI: 1.5, 8.2), and CHIKV-specific IgG titres (adjusted OR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.8, 5.5, per one unit increase). Prognostic factors for lingering RMSP were age 45-59 years (adjusted OR: 6.4, 95% CI: 1.8, 22.1) or greater or equal than 60 years (adjusted OR: 22.3, 95% CI: 6.3, 78.1), severe initial rheumatic involvement (adjusted OR: 5.5, 95% CI: 2.2, 13.8) and CHIKV-specific IgG titres (adjusted OR: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.8, 13.2, per one unit increase). CHIKV specific IgG titres were positively correlated with age, female gender and the severity of initial rheumatic symptoms.

Conclusions

Our data support the roles of age, severity at presentation and CHIKV specific IgG titres for predicting CHIK-R. By identifying the prognostic value of the humoral immune response of the host, this work also suggest a significant contribution of the adaptive immune response to the physiopathology of CHIK-R and should help to reconsider the paradigm of this chronic infection primarily shifted towards the involvement of the innate immune response.     

Baseline predictors of response and discontinuation of tumor necrosis factor-alpha blocking therapy in ankylosing spondylitis: a prospective longitudinal observational cohort study

Introduction  

Identifying ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients who are likely to benefit from tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) blocking therapy is important, especially in view of the costs and potential side effects of these agents. Recently, the AS Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) has been developed to assess both subjective and objective aspects of AS disease activity. However, data about the predictive value of the ASDAS with respect to clinical response to TNF-α blocking therapy are lacking. The aim of the present study was to identify baseline predictors of response and discontinuation of TNF-α blocking therapy in AS patients in daily clinical practice.     

Predictors of mortality in connective tissue disease-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension: a cohort study

Introduction

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a major cause of mortality in connective tissue disease (CTD). We sought to quantify survival and determine factors predictive of mortality in a cohort of patients with CTD-associated PAH (CTD-PAH) in the current era of advanced PAH therapy.

Methods

Patients with right heart catheter proven CTD-PAH were recruited from six specialised PAH treatment centres across Australia and followed prospectively. Using survival methods including Cox proportional hazards regression, we modelled for all-cause mortality. Independent variables included demographic, clinical and hemodynamic data.

Results

Among 117 patients (104 (94.9%) with systemic sclerosis), during 2.6 ± 1.8 (mean ± SD) years of follow-up from PAH diagnosis, there were 32 (27.4%) deaths. One-, two- and three-year survivals were 94%, 89% and 73%, respectively. In multiple regression analysis, higher mean right atrial pressure (mRAP) at diagnosis (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.24, P = 0.007), lower baseline six-minute walk distance (HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.97, P = 0.04), higher baseline World Health Organization functional class (HR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.25 to 9.36, P = 0.04) and presence of a pericardial effusion (HR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.07 to 10.68, P = 0.04) were predictive of mortality. Warfarin (HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.78, P = 0.02) and combination PAH therapy (HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.83, P = 0.03) were protective.

Conclusions

In this cohort of CTD-PAH patients, three-year survival was 73%. Independent therapeutic predictors of survival included warfarin and combination PAH therapy. Our findings suggest that anticoagulation and combination PAH therapy may improve survival in CTD-PAH. This observation merits further evaluation in randomised controlled trials.