Intentional genetic introgression influences survival of adults and subadults in a small, inbred felid population

1. Inbreeding and low genetic diversity can cause reductions in individual fitness and increase extinction risk in animal populations. Intentional introgression, achieved by releasing genetically diverse individuals into inbred populations, has been used as a conservation tool to improve demographic performance in endangered populations. 2. By the 1980s, Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) had been reduced to a small, inbred population that appeared to be on the brink of extinction. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released in occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression programme to restore genetic variability and improve demographic performance of panthers. 3. We used 25 years (1981-2006) of continuous radiotelemetry and genetic data to estimate and model subadult and adult panther survival and cause-specific mortality to provide rigorous sex and age class-specific survival estimates and evaluate the effect of the introgression programme on these parameters. 4. Genetic ancestry influenced annual survival of subadults and adults after introgression, as F(1) generation admixed panthers ( = 0·98) survived better than pre-introgression type panthers ( = 0·77) and other admixed individuals ( = 0·82). Furthermore, heterozygosity was higher for admixed panthers relative to pre-introgression type panthers and positively influenced survival. 5. Our results are consistent with hybrid vigour; however, extrinsic factors such as low density of males in some areas of panther range may also have contributed to higher survival of F(1) panthers. Regardless, improved survival of F(1) subadults and adults likely contributed to the numerical increase in panthers following introgression, and our results indicate that intentional admixture, achieved here by releasing individuals from another population, appears to have been successful in improving demographic performance in this highly endangered population.     

Does genetic introgression improve female reproductive performance? A test on the endangered Florida panther

Genetic introgression has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression, but the role of introgression in species conservation has been controversial, partly because population-level impacts of genetic introgressions are not well understood. Concerns about potential inbreeding depression in the endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) led to the release of eight female Texas pumas (P. c. stanleyana) into the Florida panther population in 1995. We used long-term reproductive data (1995–2008) collected from 61 female Florida panthers to estimate and model reproduction probability (probability of producing a litter) and litter size, and to investigate the influence of intentional genetic introgression on these parameters. Overall, 6-month probability of reproduction (±1SE) was 0.232 ± 0.021 and average litter size was 2.60 ± 0.09. Although F₁ admixed females had a lower reproduction probability than females with other ancestries, this was most likely because kittens born to F₁ females survive better; consequently, these females are unavailable for breeding until kittens are independent. There was no evidence for the effect of ancestry on litter size or of heterozygosity on probability of reproduction or litter size. In contrast, earlier studies have shown that genetic introgression positively affected Florida panther survival. Our results, along with those of earlier studies, clearly suggest that genetic introgression can have differential effects on components of fitness and highlight the importance of examining multiple demographic parameters when evaluating the effects of management actions.     

Vitamin A concentrations in serum and liver from Florida panthers

Many of the anomalies and clinical signs afflicting the Florida panther (Felis concolor coryi) are suggestive of vitamin A deficiency. Our objectives in this study were to determine if a vitamin A deficiency exists in the free-ranging panther population and to determine if there are differences in vitamin A levels among various subgroups of free-ranging panthers. Retinol concentrations were used as an index to Vitamin A concentrations and were determined in serum and liver from free-ranging (serum, n = 45; liver, n = 22) and captive (serum, n = 9; liver, n = 2) juvenile and adult Florida panthers from southern peninsular Florida (USA), and in liver from free-ranging cougars (F. concolor subspp.) from Washington (USA) and Texas (USA) between November 1984 and March 1994. Combined juvenile (6- to 24-mo-old) and adult (> 24-mo-old) free-ranging Florida panthers had mean +/- SD serum retinol concentrations of 772.5 +/- 229 pmol/ml. Adult free-ranging Florida panthers had mean liver retinol concentrations of 4794.5 +/- 3747 nmol/g. Free-ranging nursing Florida panther kittens (age < 1 mo) had mean serum retinol concentrations of 397.9 +/- 69 pmol/ml. Among subgroups of free-ranging Florida panthers, females had higher corrected mean serum retinol concentrations than males and adult free-ranging Florida panthers had higher mean liver retinol concentrations than juveniles. Retinol concentrations in free-ranging Florida panthers did not differ significantly from those in captive panthers (liver and serum) or other free-ranging cougars (liver). Based on limited published values and our controls, a vitamin A deficiency could not be demonstrated in the Florida panther population nor were any subgroups or individuals considered deficient.     

Florida Panther Habitat Selection Analysis of Concurrent GPS and VHF Telemetry Data

Abstract: Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) are listed as an endangered subspecies in the United States and they exist in a single Florida population with <100 individuals; all known reproduction occurs south of Lake Okeechobee. Habitat loss is the biggest threat to this small population and previous studies of habitat selection have relied on very high frequency (VHF) telemetry data collected almost exclusively during diurnal periods. We investigated habitat selection of 12 panthers in the northern portion of the breeding range using 1) Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry data collected during nocturnal and diurnal periods and 2) VHF telemetry data collected only during diurnal periods. Analysis of both types of telemetry data yielded similar results as panthers selected upland (P < 0.001) and wetland (P < 0.001) forested habitat types. Our results indicated that forests are the habitats selected by panthers and generally support the current United States Fish and Wildlife Service panther habitat ranking system. We suggest that future studies with greater numbers of panthers should investigate panther habitat selection using GPS telemetry data collected throughout the range of the Florida panther and with location attempts scheduled more evenly across the diel period. Global Positioning System radiocollars were effective at obtaining previously unavailable nocturnal telemetry data on panthers; however, we recommend that panther researchers continue to collect VHF telemetry data until acquisition rates and durability of GPS collars improve. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):633–639; 2008)     

Numerical and Demographic Responses of Pumas to Changes in Prey Abundance: Testing Current Predictions

ABSTRACT Information on factors affecting population size of pumas (Puma concolor) can be important because their principal prey over most of the western United States are valued big game species (e.g., mule deer [Odocoileus hemionus], elk [Cervus elaphus], and bighorn sheep [Ovis canadensis]). Based on the hypothesis that puma numbers are limited by their food supply, puma populations should track changes in prey abundance by growing exponentially with increases in prey and by declining with a lag response when prey decreases. Additional predictions proposed by researchers are that body mass of pumas, female productivity, kitten survival, and adult survival should decrease after a prey decline. We used a 15-year database from a hunted population of pumas in southern Idaho and northwestern Utah to test these predictions. During the 15-year time span of the database, a major decline in mule deer abundance occurred. Estimates of puma numbers and demographic characteristics came from intensive capture and radiocollaring efforts. We calculated kitten and adult survival with MICROMORT software. We found that adult puma numbers increased exponentially at r = 0.07 during a period of increasing mule deer numbers. Four years after the mule deer abundance declined, puma numbers decreased at a rate of r = −0.06. Body mass of female pumas was lower after the decline in puma numbers (42.6 ± SE = 1.2 kg, n = 40 vs. 40.1 ± 0.64 kg, n = 34, t = 5.06, P = 0.045). Kitten survival was less after the decline in deer abundance (0.573 ± 0.016, n = 30 vs. 0.856 ± 0.015, n = 25, Z = 2.40, P < 0.01). Survival of resident females was significantly less after the decline in puma numbers (0.783 ± 0.03 vs. 0.929 ± 0.019, U = 55.0, P = 0.009). Female productivity did not differ before or after the decline in deer abundance. Our results supported the majority of the predictions concerning the impact of changing deer abundance, which supported the hypothesis that the abundance of mule deer limited our population of pumas.     

Natal Den Selection by Florida Panthers

ABSTRACT Information regarding habitat types selected by federally endangered Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) at natal den sites is needed because habitats used for parturition and kitten rearing potentially influence fitness of individuals and viability of the population. We located 51 natal den sites of 30 female panthers and performed a Euclidean distance analysis to determine which habitat types were selected and avoided at dens in south Florida, USA. Panther dens were closer to upland hardwoods, pinelands, and mixed wet forests (P ≤ 0.003) and farther from freshwater marsh-wet prairie (P = 0.009). We recommend that habitat protection efforts prioritize blocks of land that have abundant patches of upland hardwood, pinelands, and mixed wet forests to maintain preferred panther denning habitat.     

Variation in Survival and Harvest Rates in Florida Mottled Duck

The Florida mottled duck (Anas fulvigula fulvigula) inhabits a relatively small range of approximately 90,000 km² within peninsular Florida, USA, and is threatened by habitat loss and genetic introgression with feral mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Moreover, the Florida mottled duck population status has not been assessed for more than a decade. We used band-recovery and recapture data from 2000–2013 to examine geographic and demographic factors that influence the survival of Florida mottled ducks and to determine whether survival and harvest probabilities have changed over time. Mean survival probabilities were higher for birds banded in the southern portion of their Florida range than for those banded in the northern portion and higher for adult males than for adult females in both areas. Harvest probabilities increased in the northern extent of its range in Florida for adults and juveniles and remained relatively constant in the southern portion of its range during the study period. Mean harvest probabilities for adult males in both areas were higher than for adult females. Mean harvest probability for juvenile females was higher than that for juvenile males in the north but was similar between the sexes in the south. Our results suggest that mortality rates are generally greater in the northern portion of the Florida mottled duck range because of regional differences in habitat distribution and permanence and in how mottled ducks and humans use wetlands in these areas. We suggest increasing conservation efforts in the north portion of the Florida mottled duck range and improving inferences from leg banding by incorporating live recapture data. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Causes of mortality of free-ranging Florida panthers

The Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) is one of the most endangered mammals, with the entire population estimated to consist of only 30-50 adult animals. Between 1978 and 1999, 73 free-ranging Florida panther carcasses were submitted for postmortem evaluation, of which 47 (64%) were radiocollared and 26 (36%) were uncollared cats. Overall, mortality of panthers > 6-mo-old was due to vehicular trauma in 25 (35%), intraspecific aggression in 19 (26%), illegal kill in seven (10%), research activities in two (3%), infectious diseases in two (3%), esophageal tear in one (1%), pleuritis in one (1%), pyothorax in one (1%), aortic aneurysm in one (1%), atrial septal defect in one (1%), and causes of death were undetermined in 13 (18%) due to autolysis. Of the 25 panthers that were killed by vehicular trauma, 20 (80%) died between October and April. This coincides with increased number of winter visitors to south Florida. Among radiocollared panthers, intraspecific aggression was the primary cause of mortality for 19 (41%) dead cats. Of these cats, 16 (84%) were males and 14 (88%) were either less than 3 or more than 8-yr-old. These animals were probably fighting to establish or retain territory. Among the 26 uncollared panthers, vehicular trauma was the primary cause of mortality and was responsible for 16 (62%) deaths. This study documents the causes of mortality and the age, sex, and seasonal mortality trends for both radiocollared and uncollared free-ranging endangered Florida panthers over a 21-yr-period.     

The genetic rescue of the Florida panther

We examine the consequences of panthers introduced from Texas into south Florida, an area housing a small, isolated, inbred and distinct subspecies ( Puma concolor coryi ). Once part of a continuous, widespread population, panthers became isolated in south Florida more than a century ago. Numbers declined and the occurrence of genetic defects increased. Hoping to reverse the genetic damage, managers introduced eight female panthers from Texas into south Florida in the mid-1990s. This action was highly controversial and we explain the arguments for and against the intervention. We synthesized data systematically collected on the Florida panthers from before, during and after this management intervention. These data include information on movements, breeding, mortality, survivorship and range. There is no evidence that purebred Florida females produce fewer kittens at a later age or less often than do hybrid cats (i.e. those with a Texas ancestor). Hybrid kittens have about a three times higher chance of becoming adults as do purebred ones. Hybrid adult females survive better than purebred females; there is no obvious difference between the males. Males die younger than females, are more often killed by other males and are more likely to disperse longer distances into habitats that are dangerous to them. Hybrids are expanding the known range of habitats panthers occupy and use.     

A Conservation-Based Approach to Compensation for Livestock Depredation: The Florida Panther Case Study

Calf (Bos taurus) depredation by the federally endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) on ranches in southwest Florida is an important issue because ranches represent mixed landscapes that provide habitat critical to panther recovery. The objectives of this study were to (1) quantify calf depredation by panthers on two ranches in southwest Florida, and (2) develop a habitat suitability model to evaluate the quality of panther hunting habitat on ranchlands, assess whether the model could predict predation risk to calves, and discuss its potential to be incorporated into an incentive-based compensation program. We ear-tagged 409 calves with VHF transmitters on two ranches during 2011–2013 to document calf mortality. We developed a model to evaluate the quality of panther hunting habitat on private lands in southwest Florida using environmental variables obtained from the Florida Natural Areas Inventory (FNAI) Cooperative Landcover Database and nocturnal GPS locations of panthers provided by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). We then tested whether the model could predict the location of calf depredation sites. Tagged calf loss to panthers varied between the two ranches (0.5%/yr to 5.3%/yr) and may have been influenced by the amount of panther hunting habitat on each ranch as the ranch that experienced higher depredation rates contained a significantly higher probability of panther presence. Depredation sites of tagged calves had a significantly greater probability of panther presence than depredation sites of untagged calves that were found by ranchers in open pastures. This suggests that there may be more calves killed in high risk environments than are being found and reported by ranchers and that panthers can hunt effectively in open environments. It also suggests that the model may provide a means for evaluating the quality of panther hunting habitat and the corresponding risk of depredation to livestock across the landscape. We suggest that our approach could be applied to prioritize and categorize private lands for participation in a Payment for Ecosystem Services program that compensates landowners for livestock loss and incentivizes conserving high quality habitat for large carnivores where livestock depredation is a concern.     

Gastrointestinal helminths of free-ranging Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) and the efficacy of the current anthelmintic treatment protocol

Thirty-five Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi [Bangs, 1899]) collected from six counties in southern Florida between 1978 and 2003 were examined at necropsy for gastrointestinal helminths. The panthers were placed into two groups: 1) treated with anthelmintics (n = 17), and 2) untreated (n = 18). Nine species of helminths (one trematode, six nematodes, and two cestodes) were identified in the untreated panthers. The most prevalent helminths were Alaria marcianae (LaRue, 1917) (100%), Spirometra mansonoides (Mueller, 1935) (91%), and Ancylostoma pluridentatum (Alessandrini, 1905) (89%). Ancylostoma caninum (Ercolani, 1859) is reported from the Florida panther for the first time. The intensities of helminths with prevalences >10% did not differ between untreated panthers collected in 1978-1983 and 1996-2003. Treated panthers had helminth faunas similar to those of untreated panthers. The current anthelmintic treatment being used reduced the intensity of both A. marcianae and A. pluridentatum in panthers < or =6 mo posttreatment (PT); however, treated panthers between 6 and 9 mo PT, and >9 mo PT were similar to untreated panthers. Treatment was less effective on S. mansonoides and Taenia omissa Lühe, 1910. Treated panthers had slightly lower intensities of S. mansonoides at < or =6 mo PT; however, between 6 and 9 mo PT and >9 mo PT they had significantly higher intensities than untreated panthers. At all periods PT, the intensity of T. omissa for the treated panthers was similar to that of untreated panthers. We suggest that Mesocestoides sp. may not be present in the Florida panther population as reported earlier by Forrester et al. (1985), due to parasite misidentification by those authors.     

Cryptorchidism in Florida panthers: prevalence,features, and influence of genetic restoration

The overall prevalence of cryptorchidism in Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) from 1972-2001 was 49% (24/49), with a significant increase over time. The earliest age at which descent of both testicles was known to occur was 2 mo and the latest was 10-13 mo. Delayed testicular descent was documented in 23% (8/35) of juveniles examined. Most retained testicles were in the inguinal canal. There was no apparent difference in reproductive success between cryptorchid and normal panthers, although no bilaterally cryptorchid panthers were known to have sired litters. Cryptorchidism was thought to be a manifestation of inbreeding and was one of several factors that led to the development of a genetic restoration plan whereby eight female puma from Texas were released into the panther population in 1995. None of the progeny resulting from genetic restoration efforts has been cryptorchid. This report provides evidence that cryptorchidism in panthers is genetically rather than environmentally based, and demonstrates the utility of genetic restoration for eliminating certain deleterious traits that result from inbreeding.     

Survival and population growth of a long-lived threatened snake species, Drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake)

Demographic data provide a basis for understanding the life history and ecology of species, factors which are vital for informing conservation efforts; however, little is known regarding the population ecology of most snake species, including the threatened Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi). We used 11 years (1999–2009) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) and 2.5 years (2003–2005) of radiotelemetry data from southeastern Georgia, USA, in a CMR modeling framework to estimate apparent survival, capture and transition probabilities, and evaluate factors influencing these parameters. The model-averaged estimate of overall apparent annual survival probability was 0.700 (±0.030 SE) and is comparable to that obtained from known fate analysis (radiotelemetry) at the same site. Body size positively influenced survival, regardless of sex. Capture probability differed seasonally by sex, suggesting lower capture probability for females in fall and males in winter. There was no evidence for effect of precipitation or site-specific differences in survival. Model averaged estimate of annual adult survival estimated using multistate CMR models was 0.738 ± 0.030 and 0.515 ± 0.189 for subadults. We estimated population growth rate (λ) and elasticity (proportional sensitivity) of λ to vital rates using a stage-structured matrix population model. Population growth rate ranged from 0.96 to 1.03 depending on the value of the probability of transitioning from subadult to adult stage. The λ was proportionally most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, followed by subadult survival. Our results suggest that protecting adult snakes and their habitats would result in the highest likelihood of long-term population stability and growth.     

Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem,Montana

We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (m_x) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.     

Apparent Survival and Population Growth of Snowy Plovers in Coastal Northern California

ABSTRACT An accurate understanding of factors influencing survival and how they affect population growth are required to determine the best conservation strategies for small populations, especially near the limit of a species' range. We estimated adult and juvenile survival for a small population of the threatened western snowy plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) in coastal northern California over 7 years (2001–2007). We also evaluated population structure and growth to determine the relative importance of immigration and local recruitment. Apparent survival for adult males (φ = 0.61 ± 0.08) was greater than that of adult females (φ = 0.50 ± 0.11), and survival of adults was greater than for juveniles (φ = 0.40 ± 0.06). An algebraic assessment of population growth (Λ) revealed that fecundity and survival were insufficient to maintain the population (Λ = 0.66–0.77), whereas estimates based on consecutive annual counts (Λ = 0.96 ± 0.26) and a Pradel model (Λ = 0.92 ± 0.11) suggested the population was more stable. These results, combined with annual variation in the number of newly marked plovers, indicate that the local population was maintained by immigration and can be classified as a sink. Management actions aimed at increasing fecundity, including predator control and greater restrictions on human activity, may be necessary to maintain this population; actions aimed at increasing adult survival are more challenging.     

Interannual Variability in Survival Rates for Adult Female White-Tailed Deer

Adult female survival is an important component to population models and management programs for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but short-term survival studies (1–3 yrs) may not accurately reflect the variation in interannual survival, which could alter management decisions. We monitored annual survival and cause-specific mortality rates of adult female white-tailed deer (n = 158) for 6 years (2010–2012, 2016–2018) in southern Delaware, USA. Annual survival rate differed among years. Survival rates (±SE) and mortality causes were similar in 3 years (2011 = 0.72 ± 0.08, 2017 = 0.68 ± 0.08, 2018 = 0.74 ± 0.09) and comparable to previous research from mixed forest-agricultural landscapes. A relatively low survival rate in 2010 (0.48 ± 0.11) was influenced by hunter harvest and potentially compounded by abnormally severe winter conditions in the prior year. A peracute outbreak of hemorrhagic disease occurred during summer 2012, resulting in an annual survival rate of 0.38 ± 0.11, and to our knowledge is the first reported case of a hemorrhagic disease outbreak in a monitored wild population with known fates. In 2016, we did not observe any harvest mortality, resulting in high annual survival (0.96 ± 0.04). Our results demonstrate the degree of variability in annual survival and cause-specific mortality rates within a population. We caution against the use of short-term survival studies to inform management decisions, particularly when incorporating survival data into population models or when setting harvest objectives. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Survival,site fidelity,and the population dynamics of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan

ABSTRACT To conserve threatened species, managers require predictions about the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on population growth that in turn require accurate estimates of survival, birth, and dispersal rates, and their correlation with natural and anthropogenic factors. For Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus), fledging rate is often more amenable to management than adult survival, and population models can be used to estimate the productivity (young produced per breeding female) necessary to maintain or increase populations for given levels of survival. We estimated true survival and site fidelity of adult and subadult (from fledging to second year) Piping Plovers breeding in Saskatchewan using mark‐resight data from 2002 to 2009. By estimating true survival rather than apparent survival (which is confounded with permanent emigration), we were able to provide more accurate projections of population trends. Average adult and subadult survival rates during our study were 0.80 and 0.57, respectively. Adult survival declined over time, possibly due in part to the loss of one breeding site to flooding. Average adult and subadult site fidelity were 0.86 and 0.46, respectively. Adult site fidelity declined during our study at two study sites, most strongly at the flooded site. Male and female Piping Plovers had similar survival rates, but males had greater site fidelity than females in some years. Based on our survival estimates, productivity needed for a stationary population was 0.75, a benchmark used for plover management on the Atlantic Coast, but not previously estimated for Prairie Canada. In stochastic simulations incorporating literature‐based variation in survival rates, productivity needed for a stationary population increased to 0.86, still lower than that previously estimated for western populations. Mean productivity for our study sites ranged from 0.87 to 0.96 fledged young per pair. Our results suggest that fledging rates of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan were sufficient to ensure a stationary or increasing population during our study period. However, large‐scale habitat changes such as drought or anthropogenic flooding may lead to dispersal of breeding adults and possibly mortality that will increase the fledging rate needed for a stationary population.     

Black Brant Harvest,Density Dependence,and Survival: A Record of Population Dynamics

ABSTRACT We analyzed 53 years of banding and band recovery data along with estimates of harvest and population size to assess the role of harvest and density dependence in survival patterns and population dynamics of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) over the period 1950–2003. The black brant population has declined steadily since complete annual surveys began in 1960, so the role of harvest in the dynamics of this population is of considerable interest. We used Brownie models implemented in Program MARK to analyze banding data. In some models, we incorporated estimated sport harvest to test hypotheses about the role of harvest in survival. We also examined the hypothesis of density-dependent regulation of mortality by incorporating estimates of population size as a covariate into models of survival. For a shorter period (1985–2003), we also assessed hypotheses about the role of subsistence harvest and predation as sources of mortality. The best supported model of variation in survival and band recovery allowed survival rates to vary among 2 age classes (juv, second-yr plus ad brant) and the 2 sexes. We constrained survival probabilities to be constant within decades but allowed them to vary among decades. We also constrained band recovery rates to be constant within decades and to vary in parallel among age and sex classes. We were limited to decade-specific estimates of survival and band recovery rates because some years before 1984 lacked any banding, and banding in some other years was sparse. A competitive model constrained survival estimates to be the same for males and females. No model containing harvest or population size was competitive with models lacking these covariates (relative quasi-Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size [βQAIC_c] > 13). In the best supported model, band recovery rates declined from 0.038 ± 0.0028 (F) and 0.040 ± 0.0031 (M) to 0.007 ± 0.0007 (F) and 0.007 ± 0.0007 (M) between the 1950s and 2000s, a clear indication that harvest rates declined over this period. Survival rates increased from 0.70 ± 0.02 and 0.71 ± 0.02 for adult males and females, respectively, in the 1950s to 0.88 ± 0.009 and 0.88 ± 0.01 for males and females, respectively, in the 1990s. Survival rates in the 1990s were among the highest estimated for brant and did not increase in the 2000s with additional reductions in sport harvest. For the shorter data set from 1985 to 2003, models containing covariates for either sport or subsistence harvest were less competitive than models lacking these terms (βQAIC_c > 3). For the best model containing subsistence harvest, the estimate of β linking subsistence harvest to survival, although imprecisely estimated, was near zero (β = −0.04 ± 0.30), consistent with the hypothesis that subsistence harvest had little impact on survival during this period. We conclude that while harvest likely influenced survival and population dynamics in earlier decades, it is most likely that continued population decline at least since 1990 is a result of low recruitment.