How is Scientific Credibility Affected by Communicating Uncertainty? The Case of Endocrine Disrupter Effects on Male Fertility

Using the case of endocrine disrupter effects on male fertility, we explored how communicating uncertainty influences the credibility of the information that laypeople receive from scientists and how laypeople form judgments about the relationship between uncertainty and credibility. We found that laypeople assess the credibility of scientific information—whether or not it is accompanied by uncertainty—by referencing their “science model” and using non-scientific references (i.e., situations encountered in one's daily life, information received from other sources, one's own observations of the world, and one's education or professional experience). Scientific credibility is a mixture of (sometimes contradictory) considerations along these different axes. Previous studies have found that some scientists assume that communicating uncertainty will lower public credibility of science. Our results contradict this assumption for situations in which academic scientists communicate uncertainty, which is perceived as additional knowledge bringing a new perspective on certain information. People expect scientists to provide practical solutions and feel disillusionment when scientists lack straight answers. However, they accepted uncertainty as an intrinsic characteristic of science and a consequence of the limits to human beings’ capacity to understand the world. Further, the low credibility of industry scientists is further reinforced when they communicate uncertainty.     

A memory‐based foraging tactic reveals an adaptive mechanism for restricted space use

The restricted area of space used by most mobile animals is thought to result from fitness‐rewarding decisions derived from gaining information about the environment. Yet, assessments of how animals deal with uncertainty using memory have been largely theoretical, and an empirically derived mechanism explaining restricted space use in animals is still lacking. Using a patch‐to‐patch movement analysis, we investigated predictions of how free‐ranging bison (Bison bison) living in a meadow‐forest matrix use memory to reduce uncertainty in energy intake rate. Results indicate that bison remembered pertinent information about location and quality of meadows, and they used this information to selectively move to meadows of higher profitability. Moreover, bison chose profitable meadows they had previously visited, and this choice was stronger after visiting a relatively poor quality meadow. Our work demonstrates a link between memory, energy gains and restricted space use while establishing a fitness‐based integration of movement, cognitive and spatial ecology.     

Freedom of Choice About Incidental Findings Can Frustrate Participants' True Preferences

Ethicists, regulators and researchers have struggled with the question of whether incidental findings in genomics studies should be disclosed to participants. In the ethical debate, a general consensus is that disclosed information should benefit participants. However, there is no agreement that genetic information will benefit participants, rather it may cause problems such as anxiety. One could get past this disagreement about disclosure of incidental findings by letting participants express their preferences in the consent form. We argue that this freedom of choice is problematic. In transferring the decision to participants, it is assumed that participants will understand what they decide about and that they will express what they truly want. However, psychological findings about people's reaction to probabilities and risk have been shown to involve both cognitive and emotional challenges. People change their attitude to risk depending on what is at stake. Their mood affects judgments and choices, and they over‐ and underestimate probabilities depending on whether they are low or high. Moreover, different framing of the options can steer people to a specific choice. Although it seems attractive to let participants express their preferences to incidental findings in the consent form, it is uncertain if this choice enables people to express what they truly prefer. In order to better understand the participants' preferences, we argue that future empirical work needs to confront the participant with the complexity of the uncertainty and the trade‐offs that are connected with the uncertain predictive value of genetic risk information.     

Balancing variable patch quality with predation risk

Patch choice is almost always under the influence of multiple factors. Patch quality and the threat of predation are two such factors that have been shown to influence the foraging decisions of animals. In addition, aspects of patch quality may also vary with time, and consequently animals should incorporate temporal information to reduce their uncertainty about current patch conditions. The temporal weighting rule (TWR), which has been validated in previous studies, describes how animals should choose among variable options with the passage of time. In this study, we varied an additional factor, predation risk, along with certainty about patch yields in a field experiment, utilizing individually marked, free-ranging least chipmunks, Tamias minimus. We gave the animals in each condition experience at our experimental patches and then recorded patch choices a few minutes or one to 2 days later. The results show that animals combined perceived predation risk with a progressively shifting assessment of patch quality to form estimates of overall patch value as modeled by TWR. Based on the information available, the animals' patch choices were, arguably, the most adaptive choices.     

To follow or not? How animals in fusion–fission societies handle conflicting information during group decision‐making

When group members possess differing information about the environment, they may disagree on the best movement decision. Such conflicts result in group break‐ups, and are therefore a fundamental driver of fusion–fission group dynamics. Yet, a paucity of empirical work hampers our understanding of how adaptive evolution has shaped plasticity in collective behaviours that promote and maintain fusion–fission dynamics. Using movement data from GPS‐collared bison, we found that individuals constantly associated with other animals possessing different spatial knowledge, and both personal and conspecific information influenced an individual's patch choice decisions. During conflict situations, bison used group familiarity coupled with their knowledge of local foraging options and recently sampled resource quality when deciding to follow or leave a group – a tactic that led to energy‐rewarding movements. Natural selection has shaped collective behaviours for coping with social conflicts and resource heterogeneity, which maintain fusion–fission dynamics and play an essential role in animal distribution.     

Interaction Mortality: Senescence May Have Evolved because It Increases Lifespan

Given an extrinsic challenge, an organism may die or not depending on how the threat interacts with the organism''s physiological state. To date, such interaction mortality has been only a minor factor in theoretical modeling of senescence. We describe a model of interaction mortality that does not involve specific functions, making only modest assumptions. Our model distinguishes explicitly between the physiological state of an organism and potential extrinsic, age-independent threats. The resulting mortality may change with age, depending on whether the organism''s state changes with age. We find that depending on the physiological constraints, any outcome, be it ‘no senescence’ or ‘high rate of senescence’, can be found in any environment; that the highest optimal rate of senescence emerges for an intermediate physiological constraint, i.e. intermediate strength of trade-off; and that the optimal rate of senescence as a function of the environment is driven by the way the environment changes the effect of the organism''s state on mortality. We conclude that knowledge about the environment, physiology and their interaction is necessary before reasonable predictions about the evolution of senescence can be made.     

Braving Difficult Choices Alone: Children's and Adolescents' Medical Decision Making

Objective

What role should minors play in making medical decisions? The authors examined children''s and adolescents'' desire to be involved in serious medical decisions and the emotional consequences associated with them.

Methods

Sixty-three children and 76 adolescents were presented with a cover story about a difficult medical choice. Participants were tested in one of four conditions: (1) own informed choice; (2) informed parents'' choice to amputate; (3) informed parents'' choice to continue a treatment; and (4) uninformed parents'' choice to amputate. In a questionnaire, participants were asked about their choices, preference for autonomy, confidence, and emotional reactions when faced with a difficult hypothetical medical choice.

Results

Children and adolescents made different choices and participants, especially adolescents, preferred to make the difficult choice themselves, rather than having a parent make it. Children expressed fewer negative emotions than adolescents. Providing information about the alternatives did not affect participants'' responses.

Conclusions

Minors, especially adolescents, want to be responsible for their own medical decisions, even when the choice is a difficult one. For the adolescents, results suggest that the decision to be made, instead of the agent making the decision, is the main element influencing their emotional responses and decision confidence. For children, results suggest that they might be less able than adolescents to project how they would feel. The results, overall, draw attention to the need to further investigate how we can better involve minors in the medical decision-making process.     

Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

Summary Ecologists applying capture–recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture–recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture–recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture–recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner‐tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.     

The Use and Transfer of Information About Predation Risk in Flocks of Wintering Finches

Several studies in behavior have focused in some way on how groups of prey gather and use information about predation risk. Although asymmetries in information about risk exist among members of real groups, we know little about how such uneven information might affect individual or group antipredator decisions. Hence, we studied the use and transfer of information about the risk of predation in small flocks of wintering birds. House finches (Carpodacus mexicanus; 28 groups of three) were held in large enclosures divided into safe and risky patches. We controlled the information about risk available to each individual by conducting attacks with a model hawk that was visible to only a single (informed) bird. Repeated attacks on a single individual did not reduce the amount of feeding by other birds in that patch, although the time to resume feeding after observing a response to an attack event was somewhat longer than after a no attack event. These results suggest that informed individuals impart some information to naïve (uninformed) birds, but this effect was not strong. In fact, the frequent return of informed individuals to feeders after observing uninformed individuals feed suggests that finches relied more on public information regarding safety than their own personal information in deciding when to feed. Group patch choice appeared to be based on a majority‐rules decision, although an effect of dominance status was apparent. Our results suggest that subordinate flock members may exert a large influence over group decision‐making by acting as spatial ‘anchors’.     

How Do Ants Make Sense of Gravity? A Boltzmann Walker Analysis of Lasius niger Trajectories on Various Inclines

The goal of this study is to describe accurately how the directional information given by support inclinations affects the ant Lasius niger motion in terms of a behavioral decision. To this end, we have tracked the spontaneous motion of 345 ants walking on a 0.5×0.5 m plane canvas, which was tilted with 5 various inclinations by rad ( data points). At the population scale, support inclination favors dispersal along uphill and downhill directions. An ant''s decision making process is modeled using a version of the Boltzmann Walker model, which describes an ant''s random walk as a series of straight segments separated by reorientation events, and was extended to take directional influence into account. From the data segmented accordingly ( segments), this extension allows us to test separately how average speed, segments lengths and reorientation decisions are affected by support inclination and current walking direction of the ant. We found that support inclination had a major effect on average speed, which appeared approximately three times slower on the incline. However, we found no effect of the walking direction on speed. Contrastingly, we found that ants tend to walk longer in the same direction when they move uphill or downhill, and also that they preferentially adopt new uphill or downhill headings at turning points. We conclude that ants continuously adapt their decision making about where to go, and how long to persist in the same direction, depending on how they are aligned with the line of maximum declivity gradient. Hence, their behavioral decision process appears to combine klinokinesis with geomenotaxis. The extended Boltzmann Walker model parameterized by these effects gives a fair account of the directional dispersal of ants on inclines.     

γ-Heptalactone is an endogenously produced quorum-sensing molecule regulating growth and secondary metabolite production by Aspergillus nidulans

Microbes monitor their population density through a mechanism termed quorum sensing. It is believed that quorum-sensing molecules diffuse from the microbial cells and circulate in the surrounding environment as a function of cell density. When these molecules reach a threshold concentration, the gene expression of the entire population is altered in a coordinated manner. This work provides evidence that Aspergillus nidulans produces at least one small diffusible molecule during its growth cycle which accumulates at high cell density and alters the organism's behaviour. When added to low-density cell cultures, ethyl acetate extracts from stationary phase culture supernatants of A. nidulans resulted in the abolition of the lag phase, induced an earlier deceleration phase with 16.3?% decrease in the final cell dry weight and resulted in a 37.8?% increase in the expression of ipnA::lacZ reporter gene construct, which was used as a marker for penicillin production compared to non-treated controls. The bioactive molecule present in the stationary phase extract was purified to homogeneity and was identified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to be ??-heptalactone. This study provides the first evidence that A. nidulans produces ??-heptalactone at a high cell density and it can alter the organism's behaviour at a low cell density. ??-Heptalactone hence acts as a quorum-sensing molecule in the producing strain.     

THE EVOLUTION OF REPRODUCTIVE EFFORT IN LIZARDS AND SNAKES

Life history theory suggests that the optimal evolved level of reproductive effort (RE) for an organism depends upon the degree to which additional current reproductive investment reduces future reproductive output. Future reproduction can be decreased in two ways, through (i) decreases in the organism's survival rate, and/or (ii) decreases in the organism's growth (and hence subsequent fecundity). The latter tradeoff–that is, the “potential fecundity cost”—should affect the evolution of RE only in species with relatively high survival rate, a relatively high rate of fecundity increase with body size, or a relatively high reproductive frequency per annum. Unless these conditions are met, the probable benefit in future fecundity obtained from decreasing present reproductive output is too low for natural selection to favor any reduction in RE below the maximum physiologically possible. Published data on survival rate, reproductive frequency and relative clutch mass (RCM) suggest that many lizard species fall well below the level at which natural selection can be expected to influence RE through such “potential fecundity” tradeoffs. Hence, the relative allocation of resources between growth and reproduction is unlikely to be directly optimized by natural selection in these animals. Instead, energy allocation should influence the evolution of RE only indirectly, via effects on an organism's probability of survival during reproduction. Survival costs of reproduction may be the most important evolutionary determinants of RE in many reptiles, and information on the nature and extent of such costs is needed before valid measures of reptilian RE can be constructed.     

How People Use Social Information to Find out What to Want in the Paradigmatic Case of Inter-temporal Preferences

The weight with which a specific outcome feature contributes to preference quantifies a person’s ‘taste’ for that feature. However, far from being fixed personality characteristics, tastes are plastic. They tend to align, for example, with those of others even if such conformity is not rewarded. We hypothesised that people can be uncertain about their tastes. Personal tastes are therefore uncertain beliefs. People can thus learn about them by considering evidence, such as the preferences of relevant others, and then performing Bayesian updating. If a person’s choice variability reflects uncertainty, as in random-preference models, then a signature of Bayesian updating is that the degree of taste change should correlate with that person’s choice variability. Temporal discounting coefficients are an important example of taste–for patience. These coefficients quantify impulsivity, have good psychometric properties and can change upon observing others’ choices. We examined discounting preferences in a novel, large community study of 14–24 year olds. We assessed discounting behaviour, including decision variability, before and after participants observed another person’s choices. We found good evidence for taste uncertainty and for Bayesian taste updating. First, participants displayed decision variability which was better accounted for by a random-taste than by a response-noise model. Second, apparent taste shifts were well described by a Bayesian model taking into account taste uncertainty and the relevance of social information. Our findings have important neuroscientific, clinical and developmental significance.     

When to use public information for breeding habitat selection? The role of environmental predictability and density dependence

To select their future breeding site, individuals usually have to assess local quality by using environmental cues. One optimal cue may be ‘public information’, the local reproductive success of conspecifics in a breeding patch (patch reproductive success) because it integrates the effect of all environmental factors on breeding success. However, the quality of information conveyed by patch reproductive success is likely to depend on (1) environmental predictability and (2) interactions between individuals. We investigated how these two factors, ignored by previous models, affect the performance of individuals using patch reproductive success for breeding habitat selection compared with other information. We built a two-patch, game-theoretical model to compare the success of a strategy of breeding habitat selection based on patch reproductive success relative to four other strategies: (1) random patch choice; (2) philopatry; (3) choice based on the presence of conspecifics the previous year (conspecific attraction); and (4) choice based on intrinsic patch quality the previous year. The results illustrate how the efficiency of strategies in tracking variations in patch quality depend on environmental predictability and costs linked to density dependence, themselves linked to the dynamics of spatial aggregation of individuals. In particular, strategies based on measures of patch reproductive success perform the best for intermediate and high temporal predictability of patch quality, whereas philopatry and conspecific attraction then perform poorly. The ‘conspecific attraction’ strategy always coexists with other strategies by efficiently parasitizing the information they use. We discuss the implications of a better understanding of breeding habitat selection behaviours for evolutionary and conservation biology. Copyright 2003 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.      

Perception of infection: disease-related social cues influence immunity in songbirds

While avoidance of sick conspecifics is common among animals, little is known about how detecting diseased conspecifics influences an organism''s physiological state, despite its implications for disease transmission dynamics. The avian pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) causes obvious visual signs of infection in domestic canaries (Serinus canaria domestica), including lethargy and conjunctivitis, making this system a useful tool for investigating how the perception of cues from sick individuals shapes immunity in healthy individuals. We tested whether disease-related social information can stimulate immune responses in canaries housed in visual contact with either healthy or MG-infected conspecifics. We found higher complement activity and higher heterophil counts in healthy birds viewing MG-infected individuals around 6–12 days post-inoculation, which corresponded with the greatest degree of disease pathology in infected stimulus birds. However, we did not detect the effects of disease-related social cues on the expression of two proinflammatory cytokines in the blood. These data indicate that social cues of infection can alter immune responses in healthy individuals and suggest that public information about the disease can shape how individuals respond to infection.     

The Decision to Vaccinate or Not during the H1N1 Pandemic: Selecting the Lesser of Two Evils?

Background

With the release of the H1N1 vaccine, there was much controversy surrounding its use despite strong encouragements to be vaccinated in the media. Though studies have examined factors influencing people''s decision to be vaccinated, few have focused on how general beliefs about the world or where an individual gathers information might influence that decision.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross-sectional web-based survey (N = 817) was conducted during the H1N1 outbreak after the vaccine was available. Variables examined included sociodemographic information, health related behaviours, specific beliefs concerning the H1N1 virus and its vaccine, as well as general beliefs, such as fear of contamination, intolerance of uncertainty, emotional states, coping behaviour, and the source of information concerning the virus. Three converging statistical methods were used to examine the associations – analysis of variance, logistic regression, and recursive partition modelling. The most consistent and strongest association was that negative beliefs about the H1N1 vaccine (e.g. fear of its side effects) was related to the decision not to be vaccinated, whereas beliefs about the dangers of the H1N1 virus was related to the decision to be vaccinated. Most notably, having very strong negative beliefs about the vaccine was a more powerful predictor than even strong beliefs about the dangers of the H1N1 virus. Furthermore, obtaining information from the Internet, as compared to more traditional sources of information (e.g., TV, newspapers) was related to the decision not to be vaccinated.

Conclusions/Significance

These results are consistent with the Health Belief Model. Importantly they suggest that during future pandemics public health officials should not only discuss the dangers of the pandemic but also (i) take additional steps to reassure the public about the safety of vaccines and (ii) monitor the information disseminated over the Internet rather than strictly relying on the more traditional mass media.     

Epigenetics and the maintenance of developmental plasticity: extending the signalling theory framework

Developmental plasticity, a phenomenon of importance in both evolutionary biology and human studies of the developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD), enables organisms to respond to their environment based on previous experience without changes to the underlying nucleotide sequence. Although such phenotypic responses should theoretically improve an organism's fitness and performance in its future environment, this is not always the case. Herein, we first discuss epigenetics as an adaptive mechanism of developmental plasticity and use signaling theory to provide an evolutionary context for DOHaD phenomena within a generation. Next, we utilize signalling theory to identify determinants of adaptive developmental plasticity, detect sources of random variability – also known as process errors that affect maintenance of an epigenetic signal (DNA methylation) over time, and discuss implications of these errors for an organism's health and fitness. Finally, we apply life‐course epidemiology conceptual models to inform study design and analytical strategies that are capable of parsing out the potential effects of process errors in the relationships among an organism's early environment, DNA methylation, and phenotype in a future environment. Ultimately, we hope to foster cross‐talk and interdisciplinary collaboration between evolutionary biology and DOHaD epidemiology, which have historically remained separate despite a shared interest in developmental plasticity.     

Bioethics for clinicians: 2. Disclosure.

In the context of patient consent, "disclosure" refers to the provision of relevant information by the clinician and its comprehension by the patient. Both elements are necessary for valid consent. Disclosure should inform the patient adequately about the treatment and its expected effects, relevant alternative options and their benefits and risks, and the consequences of declining or delaying treatment. The clinician''s goal is to disclose information that a reasonable person in the patient''s position would need in order to make an informed decision. Therefore, clinicians may need to consider how the proposed treatment (and other options) might affect the patient''s employment, finances, family life and other personal concerns. Clinicians may also need to be sensitive to cultural and religious beliefs that can affect disclosure.