Aerobiological and meteorological factors’ influence on olive (Olea europaea L.) crop yield in Castilla-La Mancha (Central Spain)

Knowledge of the main biological and climate factors influencing final harvest is becoming increasingly necessary in order to obtain reliable crop estimates and, thus, ensure optimised, effective private crop management. This knowledge is also of great value to public agricultural institutions for the planning of government subsidies. Castilla-La Mancha (Central Spain) is the second largest olive-oil-producing region in Spain, the highest olive-oil-producing country in the world. This study sought to identify the main factors influencing olive fruit production in this region, including atmospheric pollen as an index of flowering intensity, and meteorological data over the flowering and fruiting seasons in two main olive-producing provinces of the region: Ciudad Real and Toledo. Statistical analysis indicated that the annual pollen index (PI) was the variable influencing most the final olive crop in both provinces. The maximum temperature in March was the meteorological variable affecting most the annual olive crop. Also, the rainfall registered in October influences the final fruit production. The integration of aerobiological and meteorological data represents an important step forward in the development of future crop forecasting models in the region of Castilla-La Mancha.     

Biometeorological and autoregressive indices for predicting olive pollen intensity

This paper reports on modelling to predict airborne olive pollen season severity, expressed as a pollen index (PI), in Córdoba province (southern Spain) several weeks prior to the pollen season start. Using a 29-year database (1982–2010), a multivariate regression model based on five indices—the index-based model—was built to enhance the efficacy of prediction models. Four of the indices used were biometeorological indices: thermal index, pre-flowering hydric index, dormancy hydric index and summer index; the fifth was an autoregressive cyclicity index based on pollen data from previous years. The extreme weather events characteristic of the Mediterranean climate were also taken into account by applying different adjustment criteria. The results obtained with this model were compared with those yielded by a traditional meteorological-based model built using multivariate regression analysis of simple meteorological-related variables. The performance of the models (confidence intervals, significance levels and standard errors) was compared, and they were also validated using the bootstrap method. The index-based model built on biometeorological and cyclicity indices was found to perform better for olive pollen forecasting purposes than the traditional meteorological-based model.     

Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long‐term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean.     

Altitudinal fluctuations in the olive pollen emission: an approximation from the olive groves of the south-east Iberian Peninsula

The possible existence of altitudinal fluctuations in the seasonal behaviour of the olive pollen emission was studied. Three pollen volumetric samplers distributed in olive groves all over the altitudinal cliseries of the province of Jaén (south-east Spain) were used. Pollen emission data were recorded during a 3-year period (2007–2009). This research has revealed the effect of altitude on consecutive olive pollen season in the province of Jaén. The first pollen grains were detected in the olive growing areas located within the area of the Guadalquivir River, where are found the lowest levels of altitude into the province. A notable delay in the pollination season of the olive groves located at higher altitudes was observed. Geographical fluctuations on both daily pollen concentrations and number of critical days were also detected. Accumulated variables of temperature and precipitation since the start of the pre-flowering period have been shown to be two of the main factors affecting olive pollen levels. The fluctuations observed in the olive pollen season may similarly occur in the case of other allergenic plant species such as cypress (Cupressaceae), plane tree (Platanaceae) or grasses (Poaceae). Furthermore, and for the clinical consequences of the findings presented in this study, we believe that it would be advisable to install a micro-aerobiological network permanently in the province of Jaén.     

Quantitative forecasting of olive yield in Northern Portugal using a bioclimatic model

In this work the objective was to develop a bioclimatic model to forecast olive yield based on airborne pollen, soil water content, and favourable conditions for phytopathological attacks. Olive airborne pollen was sampled from 1998 to 2006 using Cour traps installed in the Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro region, in the provinces of Valença do Douro and Vila Nova de Foz-Côa. Meteorological data from a meteorological station located in Pinhão, near the pollen samplers, was used to calculate other independent variables. According to the bioclimatic model, at the flowering stage 63% of regional olive production can be predicted from the regional pollen index, with an average deviation between observed and predicted production of 10%. The variable soil water content enabled an increase in forecasting accuracy of about 30%, and a reduction in the average deviation between observed and predicted production of 6%. The final regression with all three variables tested showed that the bioclimatic model was able to predict the annual variability of regional olive fruit production with an accuracy of 97%, the average deviation between observed and predicted production being 3% for internal validation and 6% for external validation.     

Olive crop-yield forecasting based on airborne pollen in a region where the olive groves acreage and crop system changed drastically

Olive trees are one of the most economically important perennial crops in Portugal. During the last decade, the Alentejo olive-growing region has suffered a significantly change in the crop production system, with the regional pollen index (RPI) and olive fruit production registering a significant growth. The aim of this study was to ascertain the utility of this highly variable production and pollen data in crop forecasting modeling. Airborne pollen was sampled using a Cour-type trap from 1999 to 2015. A linear regression model fitted with the regional pollen index as the independent variable showed an accuracy of 87% in estimating olives fruit production in Alentejo. However, the average deviation between observed and modeled production was 32% with half of the tested years presenting deviations between 36 and 66%. The low accuracy of this model is a consequence of the great overall variation and significant upward trend observed in both the production and the RPI dataset that conceal the true association between these variables. In order to overcome this problem, a detrend procedure was applied to both time series to remove the trend observed. The regression model fitted with the fruit production and the RPI detrended data showed a lowest forecasting accuracy of 63% but the average deviation between observed and modeled production decrease to 14% with a maximum deviation value of 33%. This procedure allows focusing the analysis on the production fluctuations related to the biological response of the trees rather than with the changes in the production system.     

Olive flowering trends in a large Mediterranean area (Italy and Spain)

The aim of this study was to investigate the main climatic and biological trends related to olive flowering in central-southern Italy compared to those in Andalusia, Spain. Results since 1982 were compared for the two long-series monitoring areas of Cordoba and Perugia, and since 1992–1999 for the short-series areas. The relationship between climatic trends and the biological response of the olive, a widespread culture in the Mediterranean basin, were investigated. An aerobiological method involving capturing pollen released into the atmosphere was utilised as a bioindicator of flowering phenology. The study results confirm the strong relationship between flowering periods and spring temperature trends for the olive. Temperature during March, April and May was the parameter most related to flowering date in the study areas, particularly in Italy. In some cases we found a significant correlation between flowering and past autumn temperatures, probably due to their effect on floral bud dormancy induction, but this phenomenon appeared to be of minor importance in the studied areas. The phenological trend results show the continuous advance of flowering dates to the late 1990s, followed by a relatively stationary time series related to a short-term temperature fluctuation in the Mediterranean area. This latter period probably represents a mesoscale event forced by a macroscale event—the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results reveal that the trend towards increased temperatures, and the consequent flowering advance of some species, indicated some years ago is nowadays not as clear as was expected and should be confirmed over the next few years in the Mediterranean areas under investigation.     

Influence of meteorological parameters on olea pollen concentrations in Córdoba (South-western Spain)

The influence of meteorological parameters on the dispersion of airborne pollen has been studied by several authors. Olive pollen is the major cause of allergy in southern Spain, where a large part of the arable surface area is given over to olive cultivation. Daily pollen forecasts provide important information both for pollen-allergy sufferers and for agronomists trying to achieve a better biological understanding of variations in airborne olive pollen levels. The main purpose of this paper is to study, by means of short-term statistical analysis, the effect of meteorological parameters on airborne olive pollen concentrations in the city of Cordoba (south-western Spain). Twenty-one-year (1982–2002) aerobiological and meteorological databases were used. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to study the relationships between olive pollen levels and several meteorological parameters. Statistical analysis was applied both to the whole pollen season and to the pre-peak period. Daily meteorological parameters, such as accumulated mean temperature, accumulated sunlight hours, and accumulated rainfall were used as independent variables in both statistical analyses. Accumulated meteorological variables were of the greatest value in most regression analysis equations, heat-related variables being the most important.     

13. Lake Saloio (Nazaré, western Portugal)

The possible impact of altitude and the related microclimatic conditions on the total production of fruiting branches, inflorescences, flowers and pollen grains of olive trees Olea europaea was analysed. A total of 90 Picual cultivar trees, the most extensive olive cultivar in the Iberian Peninsula, were studied for a three-year period (2007–2009). The study shows that production of flowers and pollen grains in a cultivar of the olive tree varies according to the microclimate. Our study also indicates that the olive trees frequently can have up to half a million flowers per tree. Moreover, the total flower production differs between years and study areas. In the Picual cultivar, the average production of pollen grains per anther is usually more than 60?000 grains. The total production of pollen per tree is around 72?000 million on average. The most favourable microclimatic conditions for reproduction in olive trees are found in years and olive growing areas with low temperature and high precipitation records during the months prior to flowering of the olive trees. We hypothesise that olive trees tend to increase their pollen production rate as altitude increases, which can be interpreted as a reproductive strategy to ensure fertilisation.     

Effect of agrometeorological parameters on the phenology of pollen emission and production of olive trees (Olea europea L.)

The pollination period and pollen concentrationof olive trees (Oleaeuropea L.) and olive production were analysedfor Prato and Florenceusing a data set of 8 years (1991–1998).Meteorological data have been usedto obtain information about weather conditionsduring vegetative seasonsand correlations were found both for thephenology and yield.The results showed that air temperatureprevious to the onset of floweringis of great importance in determining thereproductive cycle of olive treebut the chill period in January and Februaryshould also be considered.Olive pollen collected during thepollination period was positivelycorrelated with the production level for bothsites. Weather conditionfollowing pollination were also taken intoaccount for a better assessmentof the final yield.     

Changes in Pollen Viability and Concomitant Increase in the Incidence of Sorghum Ergot with Flowering Date and Implications in Selection for Escape Resistance

Pollen viability and ergot severity were monitored in a line evaluation nursery at Potchefstroom and Bethlehem (South Africa). Percentage grain fill was also evaluated at the latter locality. Changes in pollen viability with flowering date were closely correlated with changes in ergot severity (r = 0.91 and r = 0.81 at Potchefstroom and Bethlehem, respectively). Pollen viability was significantly reduced by pre-flowering daily minimum temperatures < 16°C at both localities during the period 23–27 days before flowering. The concomitant increase in ergot severity closely mirrored changes in pollen viability. Lines differed in their ability to tolerate low pre-flowering minimum temperature. Lines with pollen viabilities > 60% despite pre-flowering minimum temperature <14°C were observed. A number of lines with inherent low pollen viability, despite minimum temperatures >17°C were also found. Avoiding these in favour of vigourous pollen producers may contribute towards enhancing escape resistance in sorghum to ergot.     

Forecasting olive (Olea europaea) crop production by monitoring airborne pollen

Forecasting harvests of olives destined for the production of olive oil can be based on counts of airborne olive pollen, and meteorological and agronomic observations. This study was carried out during six consecutive years (1990–1995) in the Campiña Alta (an olive-producing region in the province of Córdoba, south-west Spain). Olive pollen totals are the annual sum of the concentrations recorded for the periods that the filters of a Cour trap were exposed. The meteorological data are the values of accumulated rainfall between 1 September and the following 15 April (a date prior to the beginning of olive flowering). The agronomic data are the forecast and actual productions for the province of Córdoba, supplied by the Board of Agriculture of the Andalusian government, and the actual production of the Campiña Alta, supplied at the end of harvest by private olive-growing co-operatives. The data were combined, and four mathematical equations were obtained to forecast the crop 6 months in advance, with varying degrees of reliability. The reliability was very high for an appropriate agricultural area. The most accurate equation isY=?1.90×10⁴+2.35X+53.94 (which forecasts the production of the Campiña Alta), whereY is the olive production (MT),X the olive pollen count,Z the rainfall prior to flowering, anda, b andc are constants. The least accurate equation is that relating olive pollen concentrations with olive production in the province of Córdoba.     

Differences between airborne pollen and flowering phenology of urban trees with reference to production, dispersal and interannual climate variability

Annual totals of daily arboreal pollen concentrations were analysed in Mar del Plata (Argentina) during 1993 and 1994. Flowering patterns were associated with timing and intensity of pollen appearing in the air. Seasonal climatic parameters before the start of flowering and current weather conditions during dispersion were considered.Flowering showed a regular pattern between years and it could be defined by cumulated pollen percentages. Arboreal pollen counts were higher in the first year and is probably due to 1) better climatic conditions connected with pollen productivity and 2) lower precipitation after pollen emission. Betula and Q. ilex showed an opposite behaviour that appears to be caused by a biennial fluctuating rhythm of pollen production.     

A new approach to consider the pollen variable in forecasting yield models

Methods for forecasting harvest yields have been improved considerably in the last 20 years with the development of new data survey (remote sensing) and statistical techniques. One of these methods, based on pollen release in the atmosphere, is especially important for anemophilous species such as olive. The aim of the present work is to use a different approach to forecast the olive harvest by considering the pollen variable as “endogenous” because it is involved in the consequential processes from the formation of pollen to fruiting, the complex of which determines, more or less, the final production. Unlike models built upon a single equation (multiple linear regression analysis), the proposed estimate, based on an incomplete system of equations, recovers the consistency associated with the inference of parameters while avoiding the errors of “over-estimation.” The study, based on 17 years of data considers the quantity of olive pollen monitored and the relative annual olive production in addition to climatic, agronomic, and pathological variables associated with production. The harvest forecast provides the possibility for planning and optimizing the various stages of olive production from cultivation to distribution, including sound management of the olive supply.

---

Une nouvelle approche pour considérer la variable pollen dans les modèles de prévision des rendement de récolte

Résumé  Pendant les vingt dernières années les méthodes de prévision des rendements de récolte ont été considérablement améliorées grace au développement de nouvelles techniques statistiques et d’ enquête des données (télédétection). Parmi ces méthodes celle basée sur l’émission du pollen dans l’atmosphère se révèle particulièrement importante pour les espèces anémophiles comme l’olivier. Le but de ce travail est celui d’arriver à employer une méthode différente dans la prévision des rendements de récolte de l’olivier, le tout en considérant comme “endogène” la variable pollen. Ce dernier est, en effect, impliqué dans les processus d’évolution qui vont de sa formation à la fructification, de manière à déterminer la production finale. Contrairement aux modèles établis sur une équation simple (analyse multiple de régression linéaire), l’évaluation proposée, basée sur un système inachevé d’équations, récupère la consistance connexe à l’ inférence des paramètres tout en évitant les erreurs de “surestimation”. L’étude, basée sur dix-sept ans de données, considère la quantité de pollen d’olivier détectée et conséquemment la production oléicole annuelle, outre aux variables climatiques, agronomiques et pathologiques liées à la production. Les modèles de prévision offrent la possibilité de rationaliser les différentes phases de la filière oléicole en optimisant les procédés, de la production à la distribution, y compris la gestion rationnelle des stocks.

     

Modern and ancient olive stands near Sagalassos (south-west Turkey) and reconstruction of the ancient agricultural landscape in two valleys

Aim To study the present‐day olive stands and their ecology in the eastern part of the territory of the ancient city of Sagalassos, to study the variation of olive pollen production and dispersal near the olive stands, to establish a modern pollen reference model, and to compare Hellenistic–Roman pollen data from two wetlands with this modern reference model. Location Eastern part of the territory of the ancient city of Sagalassos, western Taurus mountain range in south‐west Turkey. Methods The study is based on field survey, pollen analysis of surface samples, multivariate statistics of modern pollen data and the use of ‘modern analogues’ in comparison with Hellenistic–Roman pollen samples. Results A field survey revealed the presence of 35 olive stands in the study area. These are mainly small‐scale stands. The olive pollen representation in the surface samples is highly variable. Two groups of modern ‘olive’ pollen spectra could be distinguished: (1) a group representing mainly olive stands from lush and moist mixed orchards; and (2) a group representing mainly olive stands from open small‐scale olive stands in combination with annual crop agriculture. Although no ‘perfect’ modern analogue was found for the Hellenistic–Roman pollen data, the fossil pollen data show similarities with modern spectra from the second group, due to the presence of relatively high pollen values for secondary anthropogenic indicators. Main conclusion A well‐organized and diverse, but time‐ and energy‐consuming, agricultural system was maintained nearby the wetlands of Çanakl? soils, presumably to maximize the yields in both valleys.     

Improving early-season estimates of olive production using airborne pollen multi-sampling sites

The aim of this study was to improve the accuracy of aeropalynological models to forecast yields in areas with heterogeneous characteristics by applying principal component analysis to integrate the airborne pollen sampled from more than one trap. The sampling was performed during the past seven years (1998–2004) in the main northeast olive regions of Portugal. Annual crop production was forecasted on the basis of airborne pollen concentration measured at flowering, comparing the performance of three different independent variables: total airborne pollen concentration sampled in each trap and a derived variable that was determined by principal component analysis of the total airborne pollen concentration sampled. The best predictive results were obtained using a logarithmic relationship with airborne pollen concentration principal component scores describing about 97% of olive fruit production variability over the last seven years. The use of this technique improved the ability of pollen to explain the production interannual variations by about 13%. The comparison between actual reported and the adjusted production showed an average spread deviation of 5%.     

Monitoring biogeographical response to climate change: The potential role of aeropalynology

To test models predicting biological reponse to future climate change, it is essential to find climatically-sensitive, easily monitored biological indicators that respond to climate change. Routine monitoring of airborne pollen, now undertaken on a near-global basis, could be adapted for this purpose. Analysis of spatial and seasonal variations in pollen levels in New Zealand suggests that the timing of onset and peak abundance of certain pollen taxa should be explored as possible bio-indicators of climate change. The onset of the airborne grass pollen season during the summer of 1988/89 varied consistently with latitude, and hence temperature, with the season in Southland commencing 8--9 days after Northland. However, these patterns were only apparent after sampling sites were separated into two groups reflecting predominantly urban or rural pollen sources. A less consistent north to south trend was apparent in the frequency of high (30 grains/m³) grass pollen levels, with high levels frequent in North Island localities in November, December and January and in southern localities during December and January. The successive onset of pollen seasons for the principal tree species during the spring-to-early summer warming interval may also be a useful bio-indicator of climate change. As well as assisting forecasts of the onset of the pollinosis season, these biogeographical patterns, reflecting climatic variation with latitude, suggest that routine aeropalynological monitoring might provide early signals of vegetation response to climate change. These conclusions are supported by recent investigations of long-term aeropalynological datasets in Europe that indicate earlier onset of pollen seasons in response to recent global warming.     

An integrated use of aerobiological and phenological data to analyse flowering in olive groves

Aerobiological and phenological investigation has been linked to analyse the flowering phenomena of olive (Olea europaea L.), a tree of economic importance, in Umbria, central Italy.

Olive tree flowering was analysed by phenological observations in olive groves. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out with pollen traps that captured the pollen grains in the atmosphere by remote distances. This combined study of flowering was useful in overcoming the principal limit of phenological observations caused by their geographical narrowness.

Eleven phenological stations in Perugia province were used and periodic observations were carried out during the flowering season. Two aerobiological stations located near the cities of Perugia and Spoleto were utilized to trap olive pollen grains in the atmosphere.

Graphic and statistical analyses were used in order to study flowering dynamics, and to compare the methodological approaches.

The phenological areas, according to their characteristics, were divided in two clusters each one related to a different pollen monitoring station. Statistical analyses showed the presence of a three ‐ four‐day period during which pollen released in the groves is persistent in the narrowness and resulted in a high correlation with the pollen monitored by the pollen traps. On the other hand, the phenological data considered along with the daily pollen concentrations permit the pollen peaks to be attributed to particular olive areas or olive cultivars. This demonstrates that both methodologies can be used effectively as integrated research tools in this kind of study.     

Study of the floral phenology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Olea europaea</Emphasis> L. in Jaén province (SE Spain) and its relation with pollen emission

Phenological and aerobiological studies provide important information regarding the reproductive biology of cultivated species such as the olive. This article presents the results of an exploratory study of the floral phenology of Olea europaea L. at different altitudes in Jaén province (SE Spain) and an analysis of the main meteorological factors affecting flowering. As well, this study aimed to detect the relationship between phenology and olive pollen emission as a means of interpreting Olea pollen curves in the city of Jaén. Phenological observations were performed on olive trees at six sites, each at different altitudes and distributed over the whole area of olive cultivation in the province. Pollen data were obtained using a Hirst-type volumetric spore trap located within the city of Jaén. Phenological and aerobiological data were recorded in 2006 and 2007. This study shows that the chronology of the start of the flowering period depends on altitude. Statistical analyses indicate that the temperature, humidity, cumulative rainfall and cumulative solar radiation are the meteorological parameters that most affect olive floral phenology. The pollen season in Jaén generally lasts from May to June, with an annual total emission of over 40,000 pollen grains, the highest annual level of olive pollen emission in the world. The airborne pollen concentrations recorded in the city of Jaén are above all influenced by the olive groves located in the Guadalquivir valley.