Skip the Trip: Air Travelers' Behavioral Responses to Pandemic Influenza

Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization''s FluNet data. We estimate that concern over “swine flu,” as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.     

Gauging U.S. Emergency Medical Services Workers' Willingness to Respond to Pandemic Influenza Using a Threat- and Efficacy-Based Assessment Framework

Background

Emergency Medical Services workers'' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic is essential to healthcare system surge amidst a global threat. Application of Witte''s Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) has shown utility for revealing influences of perceived threat and efficacy on non-EMS public health providers'' willingness to respond in an influenza pandemic. We thus propose using an EPPM-informed assessment of EMS workers'' perspectives toward fulfilling their influenza pandemic response roles.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We administered an EPPM-informed snapshot survey about attitudes and beliefs toward pandemic influenza response, to a nationally representative, stratified random sample of 1,537 U.S. EMS workers from May–June 2009 (overall response rate: 49%). Of the 586 respondents who met inclusion criteria (currently active EMS providers in primarily EMS response roles), 12% indicated they would not voluntarily report to duty in a pandemic influenza emergency if asked, 7% if required. A majority (52%) indicated their unwillingness to report to work if risk of disease transmission to family existed. Confidence in personal safety at work (OR = 3.3) and a high threat/high efficacy (“concerned and confident”) EPPM profile (OR = 4.7) distinguished those who were more likely to voluntarily report to duty. Although 96% of EMS workers indicated that they would probably or definitely report to work if they were guaranteed a pandemic influenza vaccine, only 59% had received an influenza immunization in the preceding 12 months.

Conclusions/Significance

EMS workers'' response willingness gaps pose a substantial challenge to prehospital surge capacity in an influenza pandemic. “Concerned and confident” EMS workers are more than four times as likely to fulfill pandemic influenza response expectations. Confidence in workplace safety is a positively influential modifier of their response willingness. These findings can inform insights into interventions for enhancing EMS workers'' willingness to respond in the face of a global infectious disease threat.     

Early Assessment of Anxiety and Behavioral Response to Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A(H1N1)

Background

Since late April, 2009, a novel influenza virus A (H1N1), generally referred to as the “swine flu,” has spread around the globe and infected hundreds of thousands of people. During the first few days after the initial outbreak in Mexico, extensive media coverage together with a high degree of uncertainty about the transmissibility and mortality rate associated with the virus caused widespread concern in the population. The spread of an infectious disease can be strongly influenced by behavioral changes (e.g., social distancing) during the early phase of an epidemic, but data on risk perception and behavioral response to a novel virus is usually collected with a substantial delay or after an epidemic has run its course.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we report the results from an online survey that gathered data (n = 6,249) about risk perception of the Influenza A(H1N1) outbreak during the first few days of widespread media coverage (April 28 - May 5, 2009). We find that after an initially high level of concern, levels of anxiety waned along with the perception of the virus as an immediate threat. Overall, our data provide evidence that emotional status mediates behavioral response. Intriguingly, principal component analysis revealed strong clustering of anxiety about swine flu, bird flu and terrorism. All three of these threats receive a great deal of media attention and their fundamental uncertainty is likely to generate an inordinate amount of fear vis-a-vis their actual threat.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results suggest that respondents'' behavior varies in predictable ways. Of particular interest, we find that affective variables, such as self-reported anxiety over the epidemic, mediate the likelihood that respondents will engage in protective behavior. Understanding how protective behavior such as social distancing varies and the specific factors that mediate it may help with the design of epidemic control strategies.     

Searching PubMed during a Pandemic

Background

The 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic has generated thousands of articles and news items. However, finding relevant scientific articles in such rapidly developing health crises is a major challenge which, in turn, can affect decision-makers'' ability to utilise up-to-date findings and ultimately shape public health interventions. This study set out to show the impact that the inconsistent naming of the pandemic can have on retrieving relevant scientific articles in PubMed/MEDLINE.

Methodology

We first formulated a PubMed search algorithm covering different names of the influenza pandemic and simulated the results that it would have retrieved from weekly searches for relevant new records during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic. To assess the impact of failing to include every term in this search, we then conducted the same searches but omitted in turn “h1n1,” “swine,” “influenza” and “flu” from the search string, and compared the results to those for the full string.

Principal Findings

On average, our core search string identified 44.3 potentially relevant new records at the end of each week. Of these, we determined that an average of 27.8 records were relevant. When we excluded one term from the string, the percentage of records missed out of the total number of relevant records averaged 18.7% for omitting “h1n1,” 13.6% for “swine,” 17.5% for “influenza,” and 20.6% for “flu.”

Conclusions

Due to inconsistent naming, while searching for scientific material about rapidly evolving situations such as the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, there is a risk that one will miss relevant articles. To address this problem, the international scientific community should agree on nomenclature and the specific name to be used earlier, and the National Library of Medicine in the US could index potentially relevant materials faster and allow publishers to add alert tags to such materials.     

Brief communication: Rethinking the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on sex differentials in mortality

This study will assess the general impact of the 1918 influenza on overall mortality and its impact on mortality attributable to pulmonary tuberculosis in a small‐scale population. Using life table and decomposition methodologies, changes in mortality in Gibraltar used a scheme that identified a pre‐epidemic period (1904–1917), the epidemic year (1918), and the post‐epidemic period (1919–1927). Overall health in both sexes fell significantly in 1918 with a drop in life expectancy at birth, however, health quickly rebounded in the post‐epidemic period. In the case of women, there was a significant increase in life expectancy at birth after the epidemic. The impact of influenza on the magnitude of sex differentials in the life expectancy at birth fell during epidemic year but returned to a level comparable to that of the pre‐epidemic period. With respect to respiratory tuberculosis deaths, the immediate impact of influenza was restricted to only a significant increase in the rate among women (aged 15–54). In the post‐epidemic period, tuberculosis mortality rates returned to the pre‐epidemic state in both sexes. The findings from Gibraltar stand in contrast opposition to results reported for experience in the United States during the 1918 flu. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Using Extreme Value Theory Approaches to Forecast the Probability of Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Influenza in Zhejiang,China

BackgroundInfluenza is a contagious disease with high transmissibility to spread around the world with considerable morbidity and mortality and presents an enormous burden on worldwide public health. Few mathematical models can be used because influenza incidence data are generally not normally distributed. We developed a mathematical model using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to forecast the probability of outbreak of highly pathogenic influenza.MethodsThe incidence data of highly pathogenic influenza in Zhejiang province from April 2009 to November 2013 were retrieved from the website of Health and Family Planning Commission of Zhejiang Province. MATLAB “VIEM” toolbox was used to analyze data and modelling. In the present work, we used the Peak Over Threshold (POT) model, assuming the frequency as a Poisson process and the intensity to be Pareto distributed, to characterize the temporal variability of the long-term extreme incidence of highly pathogenic influenza in Zhejiang, China.ResultsThe skewness and kurtosis of the incidence of highly pathogenic influenza in Zhejiang between April 2009 and November 2013 were 4.49 and 21.12, which indicated a “fat tail” distribution. A QQ plot and a mean excess plot were used to further validate the features of the distribution. After determining the threshold, we modeled the extremes and estimated the shape parameter and scale parameter by the maximum likelihood method. The results showed that months in which the incidence of highly pathogenic influenza is about 4462/2286/1311/487 are predicted to occur once every five/three/two/one year, respectively.ConclusionsDespite the simplicity, the present study successfully offers the sound modeling strategy and a methodological avenue to implement forecasting of an epidemic in the midst of its course.     

Free-Riding Behavior in Vaccination Decisions: An Experimental Study

Individual decision-making regarding vaccination may be affected by the vaccination choices of others. As vaccination produces externalities reducing transmission of a disease, it can provide an incentive for individuals to be free-riders who benefit from the vaccination of others while avoiding the cost of vaccination. This study examined an individual''s decision about vaccination in a group setting for a hypothetical disease that is called “influenza” using a computerized experimental game. In the game, interactions with others are allowed. We found that higher observed vaccination rate within the group during the previous round of the game decreased the likelihood of an individual''s vaccination acceptance, indicating the existence of free-riding behavior. The free-riding behavior was observed regardless of parameter conditions on the characteristics of the influenza and vaccine. We also found that other predictors of vaccination uptake included an individual''s own influenza exposure in previous rounds increasing the likelihood of vaccination acceptance, consistent with existing empirical studies. Influenza prevalence among other group members during the previous round did not have a statistically significant effect on vaccination acceptance in the current round once vaccination rate in the previous round was controlled for.     

Excitability of the Primary Motor Cortex Increases More Strongly with Slow- than with Normal-Speed Presentation of Actions

Introduction

The aim of the present study was to investigate how the speed of observed action affects the excitability of the primary motor cortex (M1), as assessed by the size of motor evoked potentials (MEPs) induced by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS).

Methods

Eighteen healthy subjects watched a video clip of a person catching a ball, played at three different speeds (normal-, half-, and quarter-speed). MEPs were induced by TMS when the model''s hand had opened to the widest extent just before catching the ball (“open”) and when the model had just caught the ball (“catch”). These two events were locked to specific frames of the video clip (“phases”), rather than occurring at specific absolute times, so that they could easily be compared across different speeds. MEPs were recorded from the thenar (TH) and abductor digiti minimi (ADM) muscles of the right hand.

Results

The MEP amplitudes were higher when the subjects watched the video clip at low speed than when they watched the clip at normal speed. A repeated-measures ANOVA, with the factor VIDEO-SPEED, showed significant main effects. Bonferroni''s post hoc test showed that the following MEP amplitude differences were significant: TH, normal vs. quarter; ADM, normal vs. half; and ADM, normal vs. quarter. Paired t-tests showed that the significant MEP amplitude differences between TMS phases under each speed condition were TH, “catch” higher than “open” at quarter speed; ADM, “catch” higher than “open” at half speed.

Conclusions

These results indicate that the excitability of M1 was higher when the observed action was played at low speed. Our findings suggest that the action observation system became more active when the subjects observed the video clip at low speed, because the subjects could then recognize the elements of action and intention in others.     

Relationship of drinking water quality (hardness-softness) to cardiovascular mortality in Newfoundland

The profile of mortality in Newfoundland was analysed for all deaths occurring in 1969 of persons 35 to 69 years of age, of whom the total was 1036. An exceptionally high cardiovascular mortality (793 deaths/100,000) was noted for St. John''s, the capital city of Newfoundland, a city which has an extremely soft drinking-water supply. This high rate corresponds to that observed in the “high mortality belt” reported for the east coast of the United States, and in conjunction with data from mainland Canada, extends the belt across the entire eastern aspect of North America. The proportion of cardiovascular deaths of men occurring outside the hospital was less within hard drinking-water areas in Newfoundland than in the soft water areas of the province. Thus, the statistics reported here of cardiovascular mortality confirm evidence reported elsewhere on “macro-geographic” variations in this disease(s) as well as “micro-geographic” regional variations which may be dependent upon local environmental factors.     

The Temporal Trend of Influenza-Associated Morbidity and the Impact of Early Appearance of Antigenic Drifted Strains in a Southeast Asian Country

Globally, influenza infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the elderly, who are suggested to be the major target group for trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) vaccination by World Health Organization. In spite of an increasing trend in vaccine coverage rates in many countries, the effect of vaccination among the elderly in reducing hospitalization and mortality remains controversial. In this study, we conducted a historical cohort study to evaluate the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity among persons older than 64 years over a decade. The temporal patterns of influenza-associated morbidity rates among the elderly older than 64 years indicated that Taiwan''s elderly P&I outpatient visits have been decreasing since the beginning of the 1999–2000 influenza season; however, hospitalization has been increasing despite significant increases in vaccine coverage. The propensity score logistic regression model was implemented to evaluate the source of bias and it was found that the TIV-receiving group had a higher propensity score than the non-receiving group (P<0.0001). In order to investigate the major factors affecting the temporal pattern of influenza-associated morbidity, we then used the propensity score as a summary confounder in a multivariate Poisson regression model based on the trimmed data. Our final models suggested that the factors affected the temporal pattern of morbidity differently. The variables including co-morbidity, vaccination rate, influenza virus type A and B isolation rate were associated with increased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). In contrast, variables including high propensity score, increased 1°C in temperature, matching vaccine strains of type A/H1N1 and type B were associated with decreased outpatient visits and hospitalization (p<0.05). Finally, we assessed the impact of early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains and concluded that an excess influenza-associated morbidity substantial trends toward higher P&I hospitalization, but not outpatient visits, during the influenza season with early appearance of antigenic-drifted strains.     

Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality

The worldwide spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 showed that influenza remains a significant health threat, even for individuals in the prime of life. This paper focuses on the unusually high young adult mortality observed during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Using historical records from Canada and the U.S., we report a peak of mortality at the exact age of 28 during the pandemic and argue that this increased mortality resulted from an early life exposure to influenza during the previous Russian flu pandemic of 1889–90. We posit that in specific instances, development of immunological memory to an influenza virus strain in early life may lead to a dysregulated immune response to antigenically novel strains encountered in later life, thereby increasing the risk of death. Exposure during critical periods of development could also create holes in the T cell repertoire and impair fetal maturation in general, thereby increasing mortality from infectious diseases later in life. Knowledge of the age-pattern of susceptibility to mortality from influenza could improve crisis management during future influenza pandemics.

“The war is over – and I must go” Egon Schiele, 1890–1918.

     

Phylogenetic and Evolutionary History of Influenza B Viruses,which Caused a Large Epidemic in 2011–2012, Taiwan

The annual recurrence of the influenza epidemic is considered to be primarily associated with immune escape due to changes to the virus. In 2011–2012, the influenza B epidemic in Taiwan was unusually large, and influenza B was predominant for a long time. To investigate the genetic dynamics of influenza B viruses during the 2011–2012 epidemic, we analyzed the sequences of 4,386 influenza B viruses collected in Taiwan from 2004 to 2012. The data provided detailed insight into the flux patterns of multiple genotypes. We found that a re-emergent TW08-I virus, which was the major genotype and had co-circulated with the two others, TW08-II and TW08-III, from 2007 to 2009 in Taiwan, successively overtook TW08-II in March and then underwent a lineage switch in July 2011. This lineage switch was followed by the large epidemic in Taiwan. The whole-genome compositions and phylogenetic relationships of the representative viruses of various genotypes were compared to determine the viral evolutionary histories. We demonstrated that the large influenza B epidemic of 2011–2012 was caused by Yamagata lineage TW08-I viruses that were derived from TW04-II viruses in 2004–2005 through genetic drifts without detectable reassortments. The TW08-I viruses isolated in both 2011–2012 and 2007–2009 were antigenically similar, indicating that an influenza B virus have persisted for 5 years in antigenic stasis before causing a large epidemic. The results suggest that in addition to the emergence of new variants with mutations or reassortments, other factors, including the interference of multi-types or lineages of influenza viruses and the accumulation of susceptible hosts, can also affect the scale and time of an influenza B epidemic.     

Surveys of Respiratory Virus Antibodies in an Arctic Indian Population

A study was undertaken to determine the etiological agents responsible for epidemics in a small and relatively isolated Arctic community.Three serological surveys were carried out over a four-year period employing complement fixation tests. Clinical information from the resident nurse was also available.The results indicated that of the two clinical epidemics of “influenza” which occurred during the period of study one was due to influenza virus type A; the other was unidentified. However, influenza virus type B affected approximately 30% of the population at some time during a two-year period without being clinically recognized. An epidemic affecting mainly children, which was clinically considered to be whooping cough, was probably caused by an adenovirus. A mumps epidemic with a high attack rate for all age groups which had occurred a few months prior to the first survey was confirmed. Sendai virus and psittacosis virus are probably endemic in this community.     

Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to that of a variety of simpler baseline predictors.     

Consultant Surgeons and Vasectomy

In late 1971 410 consultant general surgeons and urologists—74% of a national random sample—responded to a postal survey about vasectomy. Probably about 50,000 vasectomies were performed by surgeons in England and Wales in 1970. The service was largely a private one: 60% of consultants'' hospital vasectomies were not done under the National Health Service, and, in addition, 26% of the consultants who worked in relevant specialties performed vasectomies elsewhere than in hospital (usually in private nursing homes). Based again on consultants'' estimates, probably 6,000 men in 1970 had their requests for vasectomy turned down by surgeons, or more than one turned down for every 10 done. The most common reason was that patients were “too young.”About 90% of the consultants thought vasectomy could normally be performed safely and adequately as an outpatient procedure, yet only 64% said that 90% or more of their hospital vasectomies were done on this basis. While 69% regarded services in their areas as adequate, most were in favour of more special vasectomy clinics.     

Augmented Lung Inflammation Protects against Influenza A Pneumonia

Background

Influenza pneumonia causes high mortality every year, and pandemic episodes kill millions of people. Influenza-related mortality has been variously ascribed to an ineffective host response that fails to limit viral replication, an excessive host inflammatory response that results in lung injury and impairment of gas exchange, or to bacterial superinfection. We sought to determine whether lung inflammation promoted or impaired host survival in influenza pneumonia.

Methods and Findings

To distinguish among these possible causes of influenza-related death, we induced robust lung inflammation by exposing mice to an aerosolized bacterial lysate prior to challenge with live virus. The treatment induced expression of the inflammatory cytokines IL-6 and TNF in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid 8- and 40-fold greater, respectively, than that caused by lethal influenza infection. Yet, this augmented inflammation was associated with striking resistance to host mortality (0% vs 90% survival, p = 0.0001) and reduced viral titers (p = 0.004). Bacterial superinfection of virus infected lungs was not observed. When mice were repeatedly exposed to the bacterial lysate, as would be clinically desirable during an influenza epidemic, there was no tachyphylaxis of the induced viral resistance. When the bacterial lysate was administered after the viral challenge, there was still some mortality benefit, and when ribavirin was added to the aerosolized bacterial lysate, host survival was synergistically improved (0% vs 93.3% survival, p<0.0001).

Conclusions

Together, these data indicate that innate immune resistance to influenza can be effectively stimulated, and suggest that ineffective rather than excessive inflammation is the major cause of mortality in influenza pneumonia.     

Inequalities in women's health: looking at mortality differentials using an alternative approach

Data obtained from follow up of the 1971 census sample in the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys longitudinal study of England and Wales were used to look at women''s mortality differentials at ages 15-59. Women were grouped by combining information on marital state, own occupation, husband''s occupation (if married), economic activity, and indicators of household wealth (housing tenure and access to a car). Large groups were found with considerable differences in mortality. High mortality was associated with working in manual occupations and living in rented housing with no car in the household. In contrast, low mortality was associated with non-manual occupations and living in owner occupied housing with a car. Among married housewives and single women these extreme groups contributed 44% of expected deaths, the disadvantaged group experiencing death rates two and a half times that of the advantaged group. Smaller differences were found among married women with an occupational class.These findings are further evidence of the “health divide” in England and Wales and show that accurately to reflect the relation between a woman''s life circumstances and mortality it is necessary to utilise other measures than those based solely on occupation.     

The Autonomic Signature of Guilt in Children: A Thermal Infrared Imaging Study

So far inferences on early moral development and higher order self conscious emotions have mostly been based on behavioral data. Emotions though, as far as arguments support, are multidimensional notions. Not only do they involve behavioral actions upon perception of an event, but they also carry autonomic physiological markers. The current study aimed to examine and characterise physiological signs that underlie self-conscious emotions in early childhood, while grounding them on behavioral analyses. For this purpose, the “mishap paradigm” was used as the most reliable method for evoking feelings of “guilt” in children and autonomic facial temperature variation were detected by functional Infrared Imaging (fIRI). Fifteen children (age: 39–42 months) participated in the study. They were asked to play with a toy, falsely informed that it was the experimenter''s “favourite”, while being unaware that it was pre-planned to break. Mishap of the toy during engagement caused sympathetic arousal as shown by peripheral nasal vasoconstriction leading to a marked temperature drop, compared to baseline. Soothing after the mishap phase induced an increase in nose temperature, associated with parasympathetic activity suggesting that the child''s distress was neutralized, or even overcompensated. Behavioral analyses reported signs of distress evoked by the paradigm, backing up the thermal observation. The results suggest that the integration of physiological elements should be crucial in research concerning socio-emotional development. fIRI is a non invasive and non contact method providing a powerful tool for inferring early moral emotional signs based on physiological observations of peripheral vasoconstriction, while preserving an ecological and natural context.