Integrating local plant resources and habitat management

The use of wild plant resources as a source of basic needs is an important aspect of multiple-use of land in much of Africa, ranging from vegetation with a low species diversity, high biomass production and resilience to harvesting (e.g.Phragmites reedbeds,Cymbopogon grasslands) through to vegetation with a high diversity of species (and plant life-forms), with a multiple of uses and often low resilience to resource harvesting (e.g. medicinal plants, pole cutting, fuelwood from Afro-montane forest). Complexity and costs of managing sustainable use of wild populations increase markedly with an increasing number of uses and resource users. It is suggested that if the primary objective of core conservation areas is accepted to be the maintenance of habitat and species diversity, then the limited money and manpower available for management of core conservation areas in southern Africa limits sustainable harvesting use of plant resources to low diversity, low conservation priority vegetation types or encroaching species. For high diversity, high conservation priority sites such as Afro-montane or Coastal evergreen forest, the emphasis must be on providing alternative sources of supply to resource users outside of core areas. Botanical gardens staff, with their horticultural experience, can play a very important role through bulking up material for supply to small farmers, herbalists and introducing additional species for agro-forestry. Botanical gardens can play a greater role in the establishment of field gene banks andex situ conservation of vulnerable species. They can also provide a valuable educational and research role on mass production techniques to boost local stocks of threatened and commercially valuable species for cultivation by local people, whether farmers or specialist users (e.g. herbalists) in the country of origin as a means of generating employment and restoring local self-sufficiency.     

Tools for integrating range change,extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tool used to describe and forecast the potential influence of climate change on biodiversity. However, ENMs do not directly account for important biological and landscape processes likely to affect range dynamics at a variety of spatial scales. Recent advances to link ENMs with population models have focused on the fundamental step of integrating dispersal and metapopulation dynamics into forecasts of species geographic ranges. Here we use a combination of novel analyses and a synthesis of findings from published plant and animal case studies to highlight three seldom recognised, yet important, advantages of linking ENMs with demographic modelling approaches: 1) they provide direct measures of extinction risk in addition to measures of vulnerability based on change in the potential range area or total habitat suitability. 2) They capture life‐history traits that permit population density to vary in different ways in response to key spatial drivers, conditioned by the processes of global change. 3) They can be used to explore and rank the cost effectiveness of regional conservation alternatives and demographically oriented management interventions. Given these advantages, we argue that coupled methods should be used preferentially where data permits and when conservation management decisions require intervention, prioritization, or direct estimates of extinction risk.     

Embryonic developmental rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

Accurate models of temperature-dependent embryonic developmental rates are important to assess the effects of a changing climate on insect life cycles and to suggest methods of population management by habitat manipulation. Embryonic development determines the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers, which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change in the subarctic could potentiate a switch to a univoltine life cycle. However, egg hatch could be delayed by maintaining a closed vegetative canopy, which would lower soil temperatures by shading the soil surface. Prediapause and postdiapause embryonic developmental rates were measured in the laboratory over a wide range of temperatures for Melanoplus borealis Fieber and Melanoplus sanguinipes F. (Orthoptera: Acrididae) A model was fit to the data and used to predict dates of egg hatch in the spring and prediapause development in the fall under different temperature regimens. Actual soil temperatures were recorded at several locations over 5 yr. To simulate climate warming, 2, 3, or 4°C was added to each hourly recorded temperature. Results suggest that a 2, 3, or 4°C increase in soil temperatures will result in eggs hatching ≈ 3, 5, or 7 d earlier, respectively. An increase of 3°C would be required to advance prediapause development enough to allow for a portion of the population to be univoltine in warmer years. To simulate shading, 2 and 4°C were subtracted from observed temperatures. A 4°C decrease in temperatures could potentially delay hatch by 8 d.     

Natural habitat change, commercial fishing, climate, and dispersal interact to restructure an Alaskan fish metacommunity

The metacommunity concept has recently been described to account for the roles of dispersal in regulating community structure. Despite its strong theoretical basis, there exist few large-scale and long-term examples of its applicability in aquatic ecosystems. In this study we used a long-term dataset (1961–2007) on the relative abundances of the dominant limnetic fishes from two interconnected lakes to investigate the synergistic effects of naturally declining lake volume (approximately 50% in 50 years), climate variation, fishery management, and dispersal on community composition. We found a marked shift in fish community composition and variability during a period of rapid natural habitat change; however, the change was most apparent in the downstream, more stable lake of the system rather than at the site of disturbance. Multivariate analysis suggested significant shifts in community composition and variability in the downstream lake. Results indicated that the community composition in both lakes was best explained by habitat loss in the upper watershed and the number of spawning adult sockeye salmon the previous year (reflecting both natural processes and commercial fishing). Furthermore, communities exhibited site-specific responses to climatic conditions (e.g., index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), whereby the upper lake responded to climate within a given year and with a 1-year time lag, whereas the downstream community responded only with a 1-year lag. We attribute this difference largely to downstream dispersal and recruitment of fish from the upper lake. Thus, we suggest that the interconnected nature of the communities in this system provides a useful and large-scale example of the metacommunity concept, whereby the effects of environmental disturbance on community structure ultimately depend on the effects of these disturbances on dispersal among ecosystems.     

Small-scale plant species distribution in snowbeds and its sensitivity to climate change

Alpine snowbeds are characterized by a long-lasting snow cover and low soil temperature during the growing season. Both these key abiotic factors controlling plant life in snowbeds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change and will alter the environmental conditions in snowbeds to a considerable extent until the end of this century. In order to name winners and losers of climate change among the plant species inhabiting snowbeds, we analyzed the small-scale species distribution along the snowmelt and soil temperature gradients within alpine snowbeds in the Swiss Alps. The results show that the date of snowmelt and soil temperature were relevant abiotic factors for small-scale vegetation patterns within alpine snowbed communities. Species richness in snowbeds was reduced to about 50% along the environmental gradients towards later snowmelt date or lower daily maximum temperature. Furthermore, the occurrence pattern of the species along the snowmelt gradient allowed the establishment of five species categories with different predictions of their distribution in a warmer world. The dominants increased their relative cover with later snowmelt date and will, therefore, lose abundance due to climate change, but resist complete disappearance from the snowbeds. The indifferents and the transients increased in species number and relative cover with higher temperature and will profit from climate warming. The snowbed specialists will be the most suffering species due to the loss of their habitats as a consequence of earlier snowmelt dates in the future and will be replaced by the avoiders of late-snowmelt sites. These forthcoming profiteers will take advantage from an increasing number of suitable habitats due to an earlier start of the growing season and increased temperature. Therefore, the characteristic snowbed vegetation will change to a vegetation unit dominated by alpine grassland species. The study highlights the vulnerability of the established snowbed vegetation to climate change and requires further studies particularly about the role of biotic interactions in the predicted invasion and replacement process.     

Recent evidence for the climate change threat to Lepidoptera and other insects

Climate change is now estimated by some biologists to be the main threat to biodiversity, but doubts persist regarding which species are most at risk, and how best to adapt conservation management. Insects are expected to be highly responsive to climate change, because they have short life cycles which are strongly influenced by temperature. Insects also constitute the most diverse taxonomic group, carrying out biotic interactions of importance for ecological functioning and ecosystem services, so their responses to climate change are likely to be of considerable wider ecological significance. However, a review of recent published evidence of observed and modelled effects of climate change in ten high-ranking journals shows that comparatively few such studies have focused on insects. The majority of these studies are on Lepidoptera, because of the existence of detailed contemporary and historical datasets. These biases in published information may influence conclusions regarding the threat of climate change to insect biodiversity. Assessment of the vulnerability of insect species protected by the Bern Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats also emphasises that most information is available for the Lepidoptera. In the absence of the necessary data to carry out detailed assessments of the likely effects of climate change on most threatened insects, we consider how autecological studies may help to illuminate the potential vulnerability of species, and draw preliminary conclusions about the priorities for insect conservation and research in a changing climate.     

Accommodating scenarios of climate change and management in modelling the distribution of the invasive tree Schinus molle in South Africa

Determining the potential range of invasive alien species under current conditions is important. However, we also need to consider future distributions under scenarios of climate change and different management interventions when formulating effective long‐term intervention strategies. This paper combines niche modelling and fine‐scale process‐based modelling to define regions at high risk of invasion and simulate likely dynamics at the landscape scale. Our study species is Schinus molle (Peruvian pepper tree; Anacardiaceae), a native of central South America, introduced to South Africa in about 1850 where it was widely planted along roads. Localities of planted and naturalized trees were mapped along 5380 km of roads – a transect that effectively samples a large part of western South Africa. Correlative modelling was used to produce profiles of present and future environmental conditions characterizing its planted and naturalized ranges. A cellular‐automata simulation model was used to estimate the dynamics of S. molle under future climates and different management scenarios. The overall potential range of S. molle in the region is predicted to shrink progressively with predicted climate change. Some of the potential range of S. molle defined based on current conditions (including areas where it is currently highly invasive) is likely to become less favourable. The species could persist where it is well established long after conditions for recruitment have deteriorated. Some areas where the species is not widely naturalized now (notably the fynbos biome) are likely to become more favourable. Our modelling approach allows for the delineation of areas likely to be invaded in future by considering a range of factors at different scales that mediate the interplay of climatic variables and other drivers that define the dimensions of human intervention such as distance from planted trees and the density of planted plants, both of which affect propagule pressure.     

'Caribbean Creep' chills out: climate change and marine invasive species

Background

New marine invasions have been recorded in increasing numbers along the world''s coasts due in part to the warming of the oceans and the ability of many invasive marine species to tolerate a broader thermal range than native species. Several marine invertebrate species have invaded the U.S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast from the Caribbean and this poleward range expansion has been termed ‘Caribbean Creep’. While models have predicted the continued decline of global biodiversity over the next 100 years due to global climate change, few studies have examined the episodic impacts of prolonged cold events that could impact species range expansions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A pronounced cold spell occurred in January 2010 in the U.S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast and resulted in the mortality of several terrestrial and marine species. To experimentally test whether cold-water temperatures may have caused the disappearance of one species of the ‘Caribbean Creep’ we exposed the non-native crab Petrolisthes armatus to different thermal treatments that mimicked abnormal and severe winter temperatures. Our findings indicate that Petrolisthes armatus cannot tolerate prolonged and extreme cold temperatures (4–6°C) and suggest that aperiodic cold winters may be a critical ‘reset’ mechanism that will limit the range expansion of other ‘Caribbean Creep’ species.

Conclusions/Significance

We suggest that temperature ‘aberrations’ such as ‘cold snaps’ are an important and overlooked part of climate change. These climate fluctuations should be accounted for in future studies and models, particularly with reference to introduced subtropical and tropical species and predictions of both rates of invasion and rates of unidirectional geographic expansion.     

Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans-boundary assisted colonization

? Premise of the study: Climate change may threaten endemic species with extinction, particularly relicts of the Arcto-Tertiary Forest, by elimination of their contemporary habitat. Projections of future habitat are necessary to plan for conservation of these species. ? Methods: We used spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats for Brewer spruce (Picea breweriana), which is endemic to the Klamath Region of California and Oregon. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. ? Key results: Our procedures predicted present occurrence of Brewer spruce perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, its projected range within the Klamath Region progressively declined, to the point of disappearance in the decade 2090. The climate niche was projected to move north to British Columbia, the Yukon Territory, and southeastern Alaska. ? Conclusion: The results emphasize the necessity of assisted colonization and trans-boundary movement to prevent extinction of Brewer spruce. The projections provide a framework for formulating conservation plans, but planners must also consider regulations regarding international plant transfers.     

Multi-generational effects of simulated herbivory and habitat types on the invasive weed Alternanthera philoxeroides: implications for biological control

Long-term pre-release evaluations of how invasive plants respond to herbivory in introduced ranges can help identify the most effective biological control agents. However, most evaluations have been conducted within only one generation of introduced invasive species. This study tested effects across seven generations of simulated herbivory (i.e., defoliation) and habitat types on the invasive weed Alternanthera philoxeroides. We found total biomass of A. philoxeroides was decreased by defoliation during the first three generations when grown in a simulated aquatic habitat, but was decreased by defoliation only in the first generation when grown in a simulated terrestrial habitat. Defoliation significantly decreased stem diameter and collenchyma thickness and increased cortex thickness and total phenol production in A. philoxeroides grown in a simulated terrestrial or aquatic habitat during the first generation, but showed little effect during the following six successive generations. The associations between stem anatomical structural parameters and biomass significantly differed between non-defoliation and defoliation treatments in the simulated aquatic habitat, but not in the simulated terrestrial habitat. Our results suggest simulated herbivory exerted successful biological control on A. philoxeroides during the first generation in a simulated terrestrial habitat and the first three generations in a simulated aquatic habitat, but failed to restrain the vegetative offspring of A. philoxeroides. This failure of long-term biological control on A. philoxeroides might be caused by changes in the stem anatomical structure and compensatory growth. Our study highlights the need for long-term pre-release evaluation when testing the efficiency of biological control agents.

     

Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

Plant diseases threaten both food security and the botanical diversity of natural ecosystems. Substantial research effort is focused on pathogen detection and control, with detailed risk management available for many plant diseases. Risk can be assessed using analytical techniques that account for disease pressure both spatially and temporally. We suggest that such technical assessments of disease risk may not provide an adequate guide to the strategies undertaken by growers and government to manage plant disease. Instead, risk-management strategies need to account more fully for intuitive and normative responses that act to balance conflicting interests between stakeholder organizations concerned with plant diseases within the managed and natural environments. Modes of effective engagement between policy makers and stakeholders are explored in the paper, together with an assessment of such engagement in two case studies of contemporary non-indigenous diseases in one food and in one non-food sector. Finally, a model is proposed for greater integration of stakeholders in policy decisions.     

Nipping aquatic plant invasions in the bud: weed risk assessment and the trade

The importation and sale of ornamental pond and aquarium plants is the most important pathway for the introduction of potential aquatic weeds into and subsequent spread of these within a country. Most current aquatic weeds were at one time deliberately imported for ornamental use. This article discusses a weed risk assessment approach to evaluating new potential weeds. It assesses the potential invasiveness of an aquatic plant based on its habitat versatility, competitive ability, reproductive output and dispersal mechanisms, range of potential impacts, potential distribution and resistance to management activities. The Aquatic Weed Risk Assessment Model (AWRAM) has been used to evaluate potential aquatic weeds in New Zealand, Australia and the USA. A similar approach could be used to guide the management of aquatic weeds in Europe. Banning the importation of highly ranked species effectively keeps biosecurity risks off-shore. Assessment of aquatic plant trade patterns, especially volumes of high-risk species, along with knowledge of current and potential distribution of those species and ease of management, are all factors to be considered when evaluating candidate plants for prevention of sale and distribution. This is a highly effective way of restricting both long-distance dispersal and density of propagules. A cooperative approach involving researchers, policy and trade representatives has been an effective way to achieve regulation of this risk pathway. European initiatives to prevent the distribution of potential aquatic weeds include the preparation of lists of known invasive aquatic species by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO), with recommendations to member countries to consider measures to prevent their spread (e.g. banning importation of, banning sale and distribution of, and undertaking control programmes against those species). Belgian initiatives include an upcoming Royal Decree concerning the importation, exportation and possession of non-native invasive species, development of codes of conduct with the horticultural sector and prohibiting the sale, purchase and intentional release of these species in the wild. This article reviews these approaches and discusses other species of concern.     

An integrated risk assessment for climate change: analysing the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

An Integrated Risk Assessment for Climate Change (IRACC) is developed and applied to assess the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to climate change. The IRACC merges a traditional climate change vulnerability framework with approaches from fisheries ecological risk assessments. This semi‐quantitative assessment accommodates uncertainty and can be applied at different spatial and temporal scales to identify exposure factors, at‐risk species and their key biological and ecological attributes, critical habitats a`nd ecological processes, and major knowledge gaps. Consequently, the IRACC can provide a foundation upon which to develop climate change response strategies. Here, we describe the assessment process, demonstrate its application to GBR shark and ray species, and explore the issues affecting their vulnerability to climate change. The assessment indicates that for the GBR, freshwater/estuarine and reef associated sharks and rays are most vulnerable to climate change, and that vulnerability is driven by case‐specific interactions of multiple factors and species attributes. Changes in temperature, freshwater input and ocean circulation will have the most widespread effects on these species. Although relatively few GBR sharks and rays were assessed as highly vulnerable, their vulnerability increases when synergies with other factors are considered. This is especially true for freshwater/estuarine and coastal/inshore sharks and rays. Reducing the impacts of climate change on the GBR's sharks and rays requires a range of approaches including mitigating climate change and addressing habitat degradation and sustainability issues. Species‐specific conservation actions may be required for higher risk species (e.g. the freshwater whipray, porcupine ray, speartooth shark and sawfishes) including reducing mortality, preserving coastal catchments and estuarine habitats, and addressing fisheries sustainability. The assessment identified many knowledge gaps concerning GBR habitats and processes, and highlights the need for improved understanding of the biology and ecology of the sharks and rays of the GBR.     

A legacy of climate and catchment change: the real challenge for wetland management

Wetland managers are faced with an array of challenges when restoring ecosystems at risk from changing climate and human impacts, especially as many of these processes have been operating over decadal–millennial timescales. Variations in the level and salinity of the large crater lakes of western Victoria, as revealed over millennia by the physical, chemical and biological evidence archived in sediments, attest to extended periods of positive rainfall balance and others of rainfall deficit. The recent declines in the depth of these lakes have been attributed to a 15% decline in effective rainfall since AD 1859. Whilst some sites reveal state shifts following past droughts, the response of most wetlands to millennial-scale climatic variations is muted. Regional wetland condition has changed comprehensively, however, since European settlement, on account of extensive catchment modifications. These modifications appear to have reduced the resilience of wetlands limiting their capacity to recover from the recent ‘big dry’. These sedimentary archives reveal most modern wetlands to be outside their historical range of variability. This approach provides a longer-term context when assessing wetland condition and better establishes the restoration challenge posed by the impact of climate change and variability and human impacts.