Endpiece: A newspaper

ObjectiveTo assess the cost effectiveness of ultrasound screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms.DesignPrimary analysis: four year cost effectiveness analysis based directly on results from a randomised controlled trial in which patients were individually allocated to invitation to ultrasound screening (intervention) or to a control group not offered screening. Secondary analysis: projection of the data, based on conservative assumptions, to indicate likely cost effectiveness at 10 years.SettingFour centres in the United Kingdom. Screening delivered in primary care settings with follow up and surgery offered in the main hospitalsParticipantsPopulation based sample of 67 800 men aged 65-74 years.ResultsOver four years there were 47 fewer deaths related to abdominal aortic aneurysms in the screening group than in the control group, but the additional costs incurred were £2.2m. After adjustment for censoring and discounted at 6% the mean additional cost of the screening programme was £63.39 ($97.77, €100.48) (95% confidence interval £53.31 to £73.48) per patient. The hazard ratio for abdominal aortic aneurysm was 0.58 (0.42 to 0.78). Over four years the mean incremental cost effectiveness ratio for screening was £28 400 (£15 000 to £146 000) per life year gained, equivalent to about £36 000 per quality adjusted life year. After 10 years this figure is estimated to fall to around £8000 per life year gained.ConclusionsEven at four years the cost effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms is at the margin of acceptability according to current NHS thresholds. Over a longer period the cost effectiveness will improve substantially, the predicted ratio at 10 years falling to around a quarter of the four year figure.

What is already known on this topic

Small trials have suggested that an ultrasound screening programme to detect abdominal aortic aneurysms in older men may be effectiveThere is uncertainty about the cost effectiveness of routine screening, with widely varying estimates

What this study adds

A cost effectiveness analysis of data from a large randomised trial with follow up over four years showed 47 fewer deaths and additional costs of £2.2m in the group invited to screeningThe adjusted net cost per patient was £63.39 and per life year gained was £28 400The projected cost per life year gained after 10 years was £8000, which is substantially lower than the perceived NHS threshold value     

Estimating the resources needed and savings anticipated from roll-out of adult male circumcision in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Trials in Africa indicate that medical adult male circumcision (MAMC) reduces the risk of HIV by 60%. MAMC may avert 2 to 8 million HIV infections over 20 years in sub-Saharan Africa and cost less than treating those who would have been infected. This paper estimates the financial and human resources required to roll out MAMC and the net savings due to reduced infections.

Methods

We developed a model which included costing, demography and HIV epidemiology. We used it to investigate 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of male circumcision was lower than 80% and HIV prevalence among adults was higher than 5%, in addition to Uganda and the Nyanza province in Kenya. We assumed that the roll-out would take 5 years and lead to an MC prevalence among adult males of 85%. We also assumed that surgery would be done as it was in the trials. We calculated public program cost, number of full-time circumcisers and net costs or savings when adjusting for averted HIV treatments. Costs were in USD, discounted to 2007. 95% percentile intervals (95% PI) were estimated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Results

In the first 5 years the number of circumcisers needed was 2 282 (95% PI: 2 018 to 2 959), or 0.24 (95% PI: 0.21 to 0.31) per 10 000 adults. In years 6–10, the number of circumcisers needed fell to 513 (95% PI: 452 to 664). The estimated 5-year cost of rolling out MAMC in the public sector was $919 million (95% PI: 726 to 1 245). The cumulative net cost over the first 10 years was $672 million (95% PI: 437 to 1 021) and over 20 years there were net savings of $2.3 billion (95% PI: 1.4 to 3.4).

Conclusion

A rapid roll-out of MAMC in sub-Saharan Africa requires substantial funding and a high number of circumcisers for the first five years. These investments are justified by MAMC''s substantial health benefits and the savings accrued by averting future HIV infections. Lower ongoing costs and continued care savings suggest long-term sustainability.     

Cost effectiveness analysis of screening for sight threatening diabetic eye disease

ObjectiveTo measure the cost effectiveness of systematic photographic screening for sight threatening diabetic eye disease compared with existing practice.DesignCost effectiveness analysisSettingLiverpool.SubjectsA target population of 5000 diabetic patients invited for screening.ResultsBaseline prevalence of sight threatening eye disease was 14.1%. The cost effectiveness of the systematic programme was £209 (sensitivity 89%, specificity 86%, compliance 80%, annual cost £104 996) and of the opportunistic programme was £289 (combined sensitivity 63%, specificity 92%, compliance 78%, annual cost £99 981). The incremental cost effectiveness of completely replacing the opportunistic programme was £32. Absolute values of cost effectiveness were highly sensitive to varying prevalence, sensitivity and specificity, compliance, and programme size.ConclusionReplacing existing programmes with systematic screening for diabetic eye disease is justified.     

Modelling the cost effectiveness of interferon beta and glatiramer acetate in the management of multiple sclerosis

ObjectiveTo evaluate the cost effectiveness of four disease modifying treatments (interferon betas and glatiramer acetate) for relapsing remitting and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom.DesignModelling cost effectiveness.SettingUK NHS.ParticipantsPatients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.ResultsThe base case cost per quality adjusted life year gained by using any of the four treatments ranged from £42 000 ($66 469; €61 630) to £98 000 based on efficacy information in the public domain. Uncertainty analysis suggests that the probability of any of these treatments having a cost effectiveness better than £20 000 at 20 years is below 20%. The key determinants of cost effectiveness were the time horizon, the progression of patients after stopping treatment, differential discount rates, and the price of the treatments.ConclusionsCost effectiveness varied markedly between the interventions. Uncertainty around point estimates was substantial. This uncertainty could be reduced by conducting research on the true magnitude of the effect of these drugs, the progression of patients after stopping treatment, the costs of care, and the quality of life of the patients. Price was the key modifiable determinant of the cost effectiveness of these treatments.

What is already known on this topic

Interferon beta and glatiramer acetate are the only disease modifying therapies used to treat multiple sclerosisEconomic evaluations of these drugs have had flaws in the specification of the course of the disease, efficacy, duration of treatment, mortality, and the analysis of uncertaintyNone of the existing estimates of cost effectiveness can be viewed as robust

What this study adds

The cost per quality adjusted life year gained is unlikely to be less than £40 000 for interferon beta or glatiramer acetateExperience after stopping treatment is a key determinant of the cost effectiveness of these therapiesKey factors affecting point estimates of cost effectiveness are the cost of interferon beta and glatiramer acetate, the effect of these therapies on disease progression, and the time horizon evaluated     

Cost effectiveness of an intensive blood glucose control policy in patients with type 2 diabetes: economic analysis alongside randomised controlled trial (UKPDS 41). United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Group

ObjectiveTo estimate the cost effectiveness of conventional versus intensive blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes.DesignIncremental cost effectiveness analysis alongside randomised controlled trial.Setting23 UK hospital clinic based study centres.Participants3867 patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (mean age 53 years).InterventionsConventional (primarily diet) glucose control policy versus intensive control policy with a sulphonylurea or insulin.ResultsIntensive glucose control increased trial treatment costs by £695 (95% confidence interval £555 to £836) per patient but reduced the cost of complications by £957 (£233 to £1681) compared with conventional management. If standard practice visit patterns were assumed rather than trial conditions, the incremental cost of intensive management was £478 (−£275 to £1232) per patient. The within trial event-free time gained in the intensive group was 0.60 (0.12 to 1.10) years and the lifetime gain 1.14 (0.69 to 1.61) years. The incremental cost per event-free year gained was £1166 (costs and effects discounted at 6% a year) and £563 (costs discounted at 6% a year and effects not discounted).ConclusionsIntensive blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes significantly increased treatment costs but substantially reduced the cost of complications and increased the time free of complications.     

Cost effectiveness analysis of antenatal HIV screening in United Kingdom

ObjectiveTo assess the cost effectiveness of universal antenatal HIV screening compared with selective screening in the United Kingdom.DesignIncremental cost effectiveness analysis relating additional costs of screening to life years gained. Maternal and paediatric costs and life years were combined.SettingUnited Kingdom.ResultsOn base case assumptions, a new diagnosis of a pregnant woman with HIV results in a gain of 6.392 life years and additional expenditure of £14 833. If decision makers are prepared to pay up to £10 000 for an additional life year, this would imply a net benefit of £49 090 (range £12 300-£59 000), which would be available to detect each additional infected woman in an antenatal screening programme. In London, universal antenatal screening would be cost effective compared with a selective screening under any reasonable assumptions about screening costs. Outside London, universal screening with uptake above 90% would be cost effective with a £0.60 HIV antibody test cost and up to 3.5 minutes for pretest discussion. Cost effectiveness of universal testing is lower if selective testing can achieve high uptake among those at higher risk. A universal strategy with only 50% uptake may not be less cost effective in low prevalence districts and may cost more and be less effective than a well run selective strategy.ConclusionsUniversal screening with pretest discussion should be adopted throughout the United Kingdom as part of routine antenatal care as long as test costs can be kept low and uptake high.

Key messages

• In 1997 only 13% of undiagnosed HIV infection in pregnant women was picked up on antenatal testing, resulting in many preventable paediatric infections
• Assuming NHS willingness to pay £10 000 per life year gained, universal testing would be much more cost effective than selective testing throughout London on any reasonable assumptions on costs, prevalence, and uptake of testing
• Outside London, universal testing would also be cost effective, even allowing 2-4 minutes for pretest discussion, provided that test costs were no more than £0.60 and uptake exceeded 90%
• Low cost tests could be achieved by pooling antenatal sera or centralisation of testing
• Universal testing with uptake of 50% may be less cost effective than a well run selective programme

     

Plasma levels of alpha-1-antichymotrypsin are elevated in patients with chronic heart failure,but are of limited prognostic value

Background

There is increasing interest in utilising novel markers of cardiovascular disease risk in patients with chronic heart failure (HF). Recently, it was shown that alpha-1-antichymotrypsin (ACT), an acute-phase protein and major inhibitor of cathpesin G, plays a role in the pathophysiology of HF and may serve as a marker for myocardial distress.

Objective

To assess whether ACT is independently associated with long-term mortality in chronic HF patients.

Methods

ACT plasma levels were categorised into quartiles. Survival times were analysed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression, without and with correction for clinically relevant risk factors, including sex, age, duration of HF, kidney function (MDRD), ischaemic HF aetiology and NT-proBNP.

Results

Twenty healthy individuals and 224 patients (mean age 71 years, 72 % male, median HF duration 1.6 years) with chronic HF were included. In total, 159 (71 %) patients died. The median survival time was 5.3 (95 % CI 4.5–6.1) years. ACT was significantly elevated in patients (median 433 μg/ml, IQR 279–680) in comparison with controls (median 214 μg/ml, IQR 166–271; p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis demonstrated that ACT was not independently related to long-term mortality in chronic HF patients (crude HR = 1.03, 95 % CI 0.75–1.41, p = 0.871; adjusted HR = 1.12, 95 % CI 0.78–1.60, p = 0.552), which was confirmed by Kaplan-Meier curves.

Conclusion

ACT levels are elevated in chronic HF patients, but no independent association with long-term mortality can be established.     

Rising population cost for treating people living with HIV in the UK, 1997-2013

Background

The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) is increasing in the UK. This study estimated the annual population cost of providing HIV services in the UK, 1997–2006 and projected them 2007–2013.

Methods

Annual cost of HIV treatment for PLHIV by stage of HIV infection and type of ART was calculated (UK pounds, 2006 prices). Population costs were derived by multiplying the number of PLHIV by their annual cost for 1997–2006 and projected 2007–2013.

Results

Average annual treatment costs across all stages of HIV infection ranged from £17,034 in 1997 to £18,087 in 2006 for PLHIV on mono-therapy and from £27,649 in 1997 to £32,322 in 2006 for those on quadruple-or-more ART. The number of PLHIV using NHS services rose from 16,075 to 52,083 in 2006 and was projected to increase to 78,370 by 2013. Annual population cost rose from £104 million in 1997 to £483 million in 2006, with a projected annual cost between £721 and £758 million by 2013. When including community care costs, costs increased from £164 million in 1997, to £683 million in 2006 and between £1,019 and £1,065 million in 2013.

Conclusions

Increased number of PLHIV using NHS services resulted in rising UK population costs. Population costs are expected to continue to increase, partly due to PLHIV''s longer survival on ART and the relative lack of success of HIV preventing programs. Where possible, the cost of HIV treatment and care needs to be reduced without reducing the quality of services, and prevention programs need to become more effective. While high income countries are struggling to meet these increasing costs, middle- and lower-income countries with larger epidemics are likely to find it even more difficult to meet these increasing demands, given that they have fewer resources.     

Treatment with atorvastatin is associated with a better prognosis in chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction: results from The Daunia Heart Failure Registry

Background

Few works have evaluated the effect of statins on left ventricular dysfunction in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), by using tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). We therefore aimed to investigate whether atorvastatin treatment may influence prognosis and myocardial performance evaluated by TDI in subjects with CHF.

Methods

Five hundred thirty-two consecutive CHF outpatients enrolled in a local registry, the Daunia Heart Failure Registry, were prospectively analysed. 195 patients with CHF and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤40 %, either in treatment with atorvastatin (N: 114) or without statins (N: 81), underwent TDI examination. Adverse events were evaluated during follow-up.

Results

The atorvastatin group showed a lower incidence of adverse events (cardiac death: 0 % vs 7 %, p < 0.01), and better TDI performance (E/E’ 15 ± 5.7 vs 18 ± 8.3, p < 001) than controls. Ischaemic CHF patients in treatment with atorvastatin also showed a lower incidence of adverse events (death: 10 % vs 26 %, p < 0.05; sustained ventricular arrhythmias: 5 % vs 19 %, p < 0.05, cardiac death: 0 vs 8 %, p < 0.05) and better TDI performance (E/E’ ratio: 15.00 ± 5.68 vs 19.72 ± 9.14, p < 0.01; St: 353.70 ± 48.96 vs 303.33 ± 68.52 msec, p < 0.01) than controls. The association between atorvastatin and lower rates of cardiac death remained statistically significant even after correction in a multivariable analysis (RR 0.83, 95 % CI 0.71–0.96, p < 0.05 in CHF with LVEF ≤40 %; RR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.62–0.95, p < 0.05 in ischaemic CHF with LVEF ≤40 %).

Conclusions

Treatment with atorvastatin in outpatients with systolic CHF is associated with fewer cardiac deaths, and a better left ventricular performance, as assessed by TDI.     

Multicentre controlled trial of parenting groups for childhood antisocial behaviour in clinical practice

ObjectiveTo see whether a behaviourally based group parenting programme, delivered in regular clinical practice, is an effective treatment for antisocial behaviour in children.DesignControlled trial with permuted block design with allocation by date of referral.Setting Four local child and adolescent mental health services.Participants141 children aged 3-8 years referred with antisocial behaviour and allocated to parenting groups (90) or waiting list control (51).InterventionWebster-Stratton basic videotape programme administered to parents of six to eight children over 13-16 weeks. This programme emphasises engagement with parental emotions, rehearsal of behavioural strategies, and parental understanding of its scientific rationale.ResultsReferred children were highly antisocial (above the 97th centile on interview measure). Children in the intervention group showed a large reduction in antisocial behaviour; those in the waiting list group did not change (effect size between groups 1.06 SD (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.41), P<0.001). Parents in the intervention group increased the proportion of praise to ineffective commands they gave their children threefold, while control parents reduced it by a third (effect size between groups 0.76 (0.16 to 1.36), P=0.018). If the 31 children lost to follow up were included in an intention to treat analysis the effect size on antisocial behaviour was reduced by 16%.ConclusionsParenting groups effectively reduce serious antisocial behaviour in children in real life conditions. Follow up is needed to see if the children''s poor prognosis is improved and criminality prevented.

What is already known on this topic

Children who persistently display a high level of antisocial behaviour are at high risk of social rejection, juvenile delinquency, and long term unemployment; the cost to society is highWhile some behaviourally based parenting programmes have been shown to be effective in university centre trials with volunteers or specially selected cases, most trials of psychological treatments for children in real life settings have shown no effect

What this study adds

An evidence based intervention is available for use in regular clinical practice that effectively reduces antisocial behaviour in referred childrenThe intervention works well with children at risk of criminality from a combination of highly antisocial behaviour, multiple psychopathology, and social deprivation     

Double blind, cluster randomised trial of low dose supplementation with vitamin A or beta carotene on mortality related to pregnancy in Nepal. The NNIPS-2 Study Group

ObjectiveTo assess the impact on mortality related to pregnancy of supplementing women of reproductive age each week with a recommended dietary allowance of vitamin A, either preformed or as β carotene.DesignDouble blind, cluster randomised, placebo controlled field trial.SettingRural southeast central plains of Nepal (Sarlahi district).Subjects44 646 married women, of whom 20 119 became pregnant 22 189 times.Intervention270 wards randomised to 3 groups of 90 each for women to receive weekly a single oral supplement of placebo, vitamin A (7000 μg retinol equivalents) or β carotene (42 mg, or 7000 μg retinol equivalents) for over 3½ years.ResultsMortality related to pregnancy in the placebo, vitamin A, and β carotene groups was 704, 426, and 361 deaths per 100 000 pregnancies, yielding relative risks (95% confidence intervals) of 0.60 (0.37 to 0.97) and 0.51 (0.30 to 0.86). This represented reductions of 40% (P<0.04) and 49% (P<0.01) among those who received vitamin A and β carotene. Combined, vitamin A or β carotene lowered mortality by 44% (0.56 (0.37 to 0.84), P<0.005) and reduced the maternal mortality ratio from 645 to 385 deaths per 100 000 live births, or by 40% (P<0.02). Differences in cause of death could not be reliably distinguished between supplemented and placebo groups.ConclusionSupplementation of women with either vitamin A or β carotene at recommended dietary amounts during childbearing years can lower mortality related to pregnancy in rural, undernourished populations of south Asia.

Key messages

• Maternal vitamin A deficiency, evident as night blindness or low serum retinol concentration during pregnancy, is widely prevalent in rural south Asia
• In Nepal, women of reproductive age who were given 7000 μg retinol equivalents of vitamin A on a weekly basis showed a reduction in mortality related to pregnancy of 40%
• Weekly dosing with 42 mg β carotene (also providing 7000 μg retinol equivalents) lowered their mortality by 49%
• Preventing maternal vitamin A deficiency in rural South Asia can lower the risk of mortality of women during and after pregnancy

     

Relative Bioavailability of Chlorothiazide from Mucoadhesive Compacts in Pigs

The relative bioavailability of chlorothiazide from mucoadhesive polymeric compacts is compared to commercial oral suspension in pigs. A single-dose randomized study was conducted in 12 healthy pigs that are 9–10 weeks old. After overnight fasting, pigs were divided into two groups of six animals. To the first group, a reference product containing 50 mg of chlorothiazide suspension, and in the second group, test product (mucoadhesive compacts) chlorothiazide (50 mg) was administered with 75 mL of water via gastric tubes. Blood samples were collected between 0 to 24 h using catheters inserted into the jugular vein. Plasma was separated by protein precipitation, and chlorothiazide concentrations were determined using a high-performance liquid chromatography method. The mean T_max and the C_max of chlorothiazide following the administration of oral suspension and mucoadhesive compacts were 0.58 ± 0.20 h and 682.97 ± 415.69 ng/mL and 2.17 ± 0.98 h and 99.42 ± 124.08 ng/mL, respectively. The K_el and T_1/2 of chlorothiazide were found to be 1.06 ± 0.28 h⁻¹ and 0.70 ± 0.21 h from suspension and 0.95 ± 1.11 h⁻¹ and 2.05 ± 1.90 h from the compacts, respectively. The T_max of mucoadhesive compacts were significantly longer (p < 0.05; 2.17 h) than the reference products (0.58 h), whereas the C_max of compacts were significantly lower (99 ng/mL) than the reference product (683 ng/mL; p < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of compacts accounts only 50.15% (404.32 ± 449.93 ng h/mL) of the reference product’s AUC (806.27 ± 395.97 ng h/mL). The relative bioavailability of the compacts was lower than that of the suspension, and this may be due to the narrow window of absorption for chlorothiazide.Key words: bioavailability, chlorothiazide, mucoadhesive compacts, pigs     

Follow-up of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy: comparison of coronary artery disease and dilated cardiomyopathy

Purpose

Since several large trials have proven the effectiveness of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) in patients with left ventricular dysfunction, disadvantages have become more apparent. As the prognosis of patients with cardiovascular diseases is improving, assessment of ICD patients and re-evaluation of the current guidelines is mandatory. We aimed to evaluate differences in mortality and occurrence of (in)appropriate shocks in ICD patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) or dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).

Methods

In a large teaching hospital, all consecutive patients with systolic dysfunction due to CAD or DCM who received an ICD with and without resynchronisation therapy, were collected in a database.

Results

A total of 320 consecutive patients (age 67 ± 10 years) were classified as CAD patients and 178 (63 ± 11 years) as DCM patients. Median follow-up was 40 months (interquartile range [IQR] 23─57 months). All–cause mortality was 14 % (CAD 15 % vs DCM 13 %). Appropriate shocks occurred in 13 % of all patients (CAD 15 % vs DCM 11 %, p = 0.12) and inappropriate shocks occurred in 10 % (CAD 8 % vs DCM 12 %, p = 0.27). Multivariate analysis demonstrated impaired left ventricular ejection fraction, QRS >120, age ≥75 years and low estimated glomerular filtration rate as predictors for all-cause mortality. Predictors for inappropriate shocks were permanent and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

Conclusion

Mortality rates were similar in patients with CAD and DCM who received an ICD. Furthermore, no differences were found in the occurrence of appropriate and inappropriate ICD interventions between these patient groups.     

Predictors of outcome after alcohol septal ablation in patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy. Special interest for the septal coronary anatomy

Background

Alcohol septal ablation (ASA) provides symptomatic relief in most but not all patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy (HOCM). Therefore we investigated predictors of outcome after ASA.

Methods

Clinical, echocardiographic, angiographic and procedural characteristics were analysed in 113 consecutive patients. Successful ASA was defined as NYHA ≤ 2 with improvement of at least 1 class combined with a resting gradient < 30 mmHg and provoked gradient < 50 mmHg at 4-month follow-up.

Results

In 37 patients ASA was not successful. In multivariate analysis, baseline gradient (OR 1.06 (1.01–1.11) per 5 mmHg, p = 0.024) and distance to the ablated septal branch (OR 1.09 (1.03–1.16) per mm, p = 0.004) were predictors of unsuccessful outcome. The combined presence of a non-ablated septal branch and a distance ≥ 19 mm to the ablated branch was a predictor of unsuccessful outcome (OR 5.88 (2.06–16.7), p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Baseline gradient and a greater distance from the origin of the left anterior descending artery to the ablated septal branch combined with a non-ablated proximal septal branch are associated with an unsuccessful outcome after ASA.     

Lithium reduces apoptosis and autophagy after neonatal hypoxia�Cischemia

Lithium is used in the treatment of bipolar mood disorder. Reportedly, lithium can be neuroprotective in models of adult brain ischemia. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of lithium in a model of neonatal hypoxic–ischemic brain injury. Nine-day-old male rats were subjected to unilateral hypoxia–ischemia (HI) and 2 mmol/kg lithium chloride was injected i.p. immediately after the insult. Additional lithium injections, 1 mmol/kg, were administered at 24-h intervals. Pups were killed 6, 24 or 72 h after HI. Lithium reduced the infarct volume from 24.7±2.9 to 13.8±3.3 mm³ (44.1%) and total tissue loss (degeneration + lack of growth) from 67.4±4.4 to 38.4±5.9 mm³ (43.1%) compared with vehicle at 72 h after HI. Injury was reduced in the cortex, hippocampus, thalamus and striatum. Lithium reduced the ischemia-induced dephosphorylation of glycogen synthase kinase-3β and extracellular signal-regulated kinase, the activation of calpain and caspase-3, the mitochondrial release of cytochrome c and apoptosis-inducing factor, as well as autophagy. We conclude that lithium could mitigate the brain injury after HI by inhibiting neuronal apoptosis. The lithium doses used were in the same range as those used in bipolar patients, suggesting that lithium might be safely used for the avoidance of neonatal brain injury.     

Clinical worsening after pulmonary endarterectomy in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension

Introduction

Pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA) is the most effective treatment for chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). The aim of this study is to evaluate long-term survival and freedom from clinical worsening after PEA.

Methods

All patients who underwent PEA in our hospital between May 2000 and August 2009 were included. Follow-up parameters were all-cause mortality and time to clinical worsening, defined as a combination of death, need for pulmonary hypertension-specific medication or 15% decrease in six-minute walk distance without improvement in functional class. The Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify predictors.

Results

Seventy-four consecutive patients (mean age 55.9 ± 13.8 years, 51% female) underwent PEA. Prior to surgery, 55 patients were in NYHA functional class III or higher. The mean pulmonary artery pressure was 41.3 ± 11.9 mmHg with a mean pulmonary vascular resistance of 521 ± 264 dyn·s·cm⁻⁵ (range 279–1331 dyn·s·cm⁻⁵). Five patients (6.8%) died in-hospital. Out of hospital, 5 out of 69 patients (7.2%) died during a median follow-up of 3.7 ± 2.2 years [range 0.1–8.5 years]). The one- and five-year survival rates were 93% and 89%, respectively. During follow-up, clinical worsening occurred in 13 out of 69 patients (18.8%). The one- and five-year rates of freedom from clinical worsening were 94% and 72%, respectively. The baseline NT-pro BNP level tended to be a predictor for occurrence of clinical worsening.

Conclusion

Pulmonary endarterectomy is associated with good long-term survival in patients with CTEPH. However, clinical worsening occurred in a substantial number of patients at long-term follow-up.     

Cost effectiveness analysis of different approaches of screening for familial hypercholesterolaemia

ObjectivesTo assess the cost effectiveness of strategies to screen for and treat familial hypercholesterolaemia.DesignCost effectiveness analysis. A care pathway for each patient was delineated and the associated probabilities, benefits, and costs were calculated.ParticipantsSimulated population aged 16-54 years in England and Wales.InterventionsIdentification and treatment of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia by universal screening, opportunistic screening in primary care, screening of people admitted to hospital with premature myocardial infarction, or tracing family members of affected patients.ResultsTracing of family members was the most cost effective strategy (£3097 (€5066, $4479) per life year gained) as 2.6 individuals need to be screened to identify one case at a cost of £133 per case detected. If the genetic mutation was known within the family then the cost per life year gained (£4914) was only slightly increased by genetic confirmation of the diagnosis. Universal population screening was least cost effective (£13 029 per life year gained) as 1365 individuals need to be screened at a cost of £9754 per case detected. For each strategy it was more cost effective to screen younger people and women. Targeted strategies were more expensive per person screened, but the cost per case detected was lower. Population screening of 16 year olds only was as cost effective as family tracing (£2777 with a clinical confirmation).ConclusionsScreening family members of people with familial hypercholesterolaemia is the most cost effective option for detecting cases across the whole population.

What is already known on this topic

In the United Kingdom there are an estimated 110 000 men and women with familial hypercholesterolaemia, only a small percentage of whom have been identified to dateWithout identification and treatment, over half of these people will have a fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease event by the age of 50 (men) or 60 (women)Effective treatment of high cholesterol concentrations reduces total and coronary heart disease mortalityNo recommended screening strategy currently exists in the United Kingdom for familial hypercholesterolaemia

What this study adds

Computer modelling has shown that the earlier familial hypercholesterolaemia is diagnosed the more cost effective the screening strategy becomesIdentifying relatives of people with familial hypercholesterolaemia is the most cost effective screening option for all age groupsAs technology improves and the cost of statins falls all strategies will become more cost effective     

Adaptive pacing, cognitive behaviour therapy, graded exercise, and specialist medical care for chronic fatigue syndrome: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

The PACE trial compared the effectiveness of adding adaptive pacing therapy (APT), cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT), or graded exercise therapy (GET), to specialist medical care (SMC) for patients with chronic fatigue syndrome. This paper reports the relative cost-effectiveness of these treatments in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and improvements in fatigue and physical function.

Methods

Resource use was measured and costs calculated. Healthcare and societal costs (healthcare plus lost production and unpaid informal care) were combined with QALYs gained, and changes in fatigue and disability; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were computed.

Results

SMC patients had significantly lower healthcare costs than those receiving APT, CBT and GET. If society is willing to value a QALY at £30,000 there is a 62.7% likelihood that CBT is the most cost-effective therapy, a 26.8% likelihood that GET is most cost effective, 2.6% that APT is most cost-effective and 7.9% that SMC alone is most cost-effective. Compared to SMC alone, the incremental healthcare cost per QALY was £18,374 for CBT, £23,615 for GET and £55,235 for APT. From a societal perspective CBT has a 59.5% likelihood of being the most cost-effective, GET 34.8%, APT 0.2% and SMC alone 5.5%. CBT and GET dominated SMC, while APT had a cost per QALY of £127,047. ICERs using reductions in fatigue and disability as outcomes largely mirrored these findings.

Conclusions

Comparing the four treatments using a health care perspective, CBT had the greatest probability of being the most cost-effective followed by GET. APT had a lower probability of being the most cost-effective option than SMC alone. The relative cost-effectiveness was even greater from a societal perspective as additional cost savings due to reduced need for informal care were likely.     

Cardiac operative risk evaluation: The EuroSCORE II,does it make a real difference?

Background

The EuroSCORE, worldwide used as a model for prediction of mortality after cardiac surgery, has recently been renewed. Since October 2011, the EuroSCORE II calculator is available at the EuroSCORE website and recommended for clinical use. The intention of this paper is to compare the use of the initial EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II as a risk evaluation tool.

Methods

100 consecutive patients who underwent combined mitral valve and coronary bypass surgery (MVR + CABG) and 100 consecutive patients undergoing combined aortic valve surgery and coronary bypass surgery (AVR + CABG) at the Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center before 10 October 2011 were included. For both groups the initial EuroSCORE and the EuroSCORE II model were used for risk calculation and based on the calculated risks, cumulative sum charts (CUSUM) were constructed to evaluate the impact on performance monitoring.

Results

For the MVR + CABG group the calculated risk using the initial logistic EuroSCORE was 9.95 ± 8.47 (1.51–45.37) versus 5.08 ± 4.03 (0.67–19.76) for the EuroSCORE II. For the AVR + CABG group 9.50 ± 8.6 (1.51–69.5) versus 4.77 ± 6.6 (0.96–64.24), respectively. For both groups the calculated risk by the EuroSCORE II was statistically lower compared with the initial EuroSCORE (p < 0.001). This lower expected risk has influence on performance monitoring, using risk-adjusted CUSUM analysis.

Conclusion

The EuroSCORE II, based on a recently updated database, reduces the overestimation of the calculated risk by the initial EuroSCORE. This difference is statistically significant and the EuroSCORE II may also reflect better current surgical performance.