Integrating patterns of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity with population genetics to improve understanding of vulnerability to warming in a widespread copepod

Differences in population vulnerability to warming are defined by spatial patterns in thermal adaptation. These patterns may be driven by natural selection over spatial environmental gradients, but can also be shaped by gene flow, especially in marine taxa with high dispersal potential. Understanding and predicting organismal responses to warming requires disentangling the opposing effects of selection and gene flow. We begin by documenting genetic divergence of thermal tolerance and developmental phenotypic plasticity. Ten populations of the widespread copepod Acartia tonsa were collected from sites across a large thermal gradient, ranging from the Florida Keys to Northern New Brunswick, Canada (spanning over 20° latitude). Thermal performance curves (TPCs) from common garden experiments revealed local adaptation at the sampling range extremes, with thermal tolerance increasing at low latitudes and decreasing at high latitudes. The opposite pattern was observed in phenotypic plasticity, which was strongest at high latitudes. No relationship was observed between phenotypic plasticity and environmental variables. Instead, the results are consistent with the hypothesis of a trade‐off between thermal tolerance and the strength of phenotypic plasticity. Over a large portion of the sampled range, however, we observed a remarkable lack of differentiation of TPCs. To examine whether this lack of divergence is the result of selection for a generalist performance curve or constraint by gene flow, we analyzed cytochrome oxidase I mtDNA sequences, which revealed four distinct genetic clades, abundant genetic diversity, and widely distributed haplotypes. Strong divergence in thermal performance within genetic clades, however, suggests that the pace of thermal adaptation can be relatively rapid. The combined insight from the laboratory physiological experiments and genetic data indicate that gene flow constrains differentiation of TPCs. This balance between gene flow and selection has implications for patterns of vulnerability to warming. Taking both genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity into account, our results suggest that local adaptation does not increase vulnerability to warming, and that low‐latitude populations in general may be more vulnerable to predicted temperature change over the next century.     

Comparative experimental evolution reveals species-specific idiosyncrasies in marine phytoplankton adaptation to warming

A number of experimental studies have demonstrated that phytoplankton can display rapid thermal adaptation in response to warmed environments. While these studies provide insight into the evolutionary responses of single species, they tend to employ different experimental techniques. Consequently, our ability to compare the potential for thermal adaptation across different, ecologically relevant, species remains limited. Here, we address this limitation by conducting simultaneous long-term warming experiments with the same experimental design on clonal isolates of three phylogenetically diverse species of marine phytoplankton; the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp., the prasinophyte Ostreococcus tauri and the diatom Phaeodoactylum tricornutum. Over the same experimental time period, we observed differing levels of thermal adaptation in response to stressful supra-optimal temperatures. Synechococcus sp. displayed the greatest improvement in fitness (i.e., growth rate) and thermal tolerance (i.e., temperature limits of growth). Ostreococcus tauri was able to improve fitness and thermal tolerance, but to a lesser extent. Finally, Phaeodoactylum tricornutum showed no signs of adaptation. These findings could help us understand how the structure of phytoplankton communities may change in response to warming, and possible biogeochemical implications, as some species show relatively more rapid adaptive shifts in their thermal tolerance.     

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the ‘Bogert effect’. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures.     

Heat tolerance of marine ectotherms in a warming Antarctica

Global warming is affecting the Antarctic continent in complex ways. Because Antarctic organisms are specialized to living in the cold, they are vulnerable to increasing temperatures, although quantitative analyses of this issue are currently lacking. Here we compiled a total of 184 estimates of heat tolerance belonging to 39 marine species and quantified how survival is affected concomitantly by the intensity and duration of thermal stress. Species exhibit thermal limits displaced toward colder temperatures, with contrasting strategies between arthropods and fish that exhibit low tolerance to acute heat challenges, and brachiopods, echinoderms, and molluscs that tend to be more sensitive to chronic exposure. These differences might be associated with mobility. A dynamic mortality model suggests that Antarctic organisms already encounter temperatures that might be physiologically stressful and indicate that these ecological communities are indeed vulnerable to ongoing rising temperatures.     

Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean

The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.     

Adaptation and acclimatization to ocean acidification in marine ectotherms: an in situ transplant experiment with polychaetes at a shallow CO2 vent system

Metabolic rate determines the physiological and life-history performances of ectotherms. Thus, the extent to which such rates are sensitive and plastic to environmental perturbation is central to an organism''s ability to function in a changing environment. Little is known of long-term metabolic plasticity and potential for metabolic adaptation in marine ectotherms exposed to elevated pCO₂. Consequently, we carried out a series of in situ transplant experiments using a number of tolerant and sensitive polychaete species living around a natural CO₂ vent system. Here, we show that a marine metazoan (i.e. Platynereis dumerilii) was able to adapt to chronic and elevated levels of pCO₂. The vent population of P. dumerilii was physiologically and genetically different from nearby populations that experience low pCO₂, as well as smaller in body size. By contrast, different populations of Amphiglena mediterranea showed marked physiological plasticity indicating that adaptation or acclimatization are both viable strategies for the successful colonization of elevated pCO₂ environments. In addition, sensitive species showed either a reduced or increased metabolism when exposed acutely to elevated pCO₂. Our findings may help explain, from a metabolic perspective, the occurrence of past mass extinction, as well as shed light on alternative pathways of resilience in species facing ongoing ocean acidification.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

Intraspecific variation in thermal acclimation and tolerance between populations of the winter ant,Prenolepis imparis

Thermal phenotypic plasticity, otherwise known as acclimation, plays an essential role in how organisms respond to short‐term temperature changes. Plasticity buffers the impact of harmful temperature changes; therefore, understanding variation in plasticity in natural populations is crucial for understanding how species will respond to the changing climate. However, very few studies have examined patterns of phenotypic plasticity among populations, especially among ant populations. Considering that this intraspecies variation can provide insight into adaptive variation in populations, the goal of this study was to quantify the short‐term acclimation ability and thermal tolerance of several populations of the winter ant, Prenolepis imparis. We tested for correlations between thermal plasticity and thermal tolerance, elevation, and body size. We characterized the thermal environment both above and below ground for several populations distributed across different elevations within California, USA. In addition, we measured the short‐term acclimation ability and thermal tolerance of those populations. To measure thermal tolerance, we used chill‐coma recovery time (CCRT) and knockdown time as indicators of cold and heat tolerance, respectively. Short‐term phenotypic plasticity was assessed by calculating acclimation capacity using CCRT and knockdown time after exposure to both high and low temperatures. We found that several populations displayed different chill‐coma recovery times and a few displayed different heat knockdown times, and that the acclimation capacities of cold and heat tolerance differed among most populations. The high‐elevation populations displayed increased tolerance to the cold (faster CCRT) and greater plasticity. For high‐temperature tolerance, we found heat tolerance was not associated with altitude; instead, greater tolerance to the heat was correlated with increased plasticity at higher temperatures. These current findings provide insight into thermal adaptation and factors that contribute to phenotypic diversity by revealing physiological variance among populations.     

Developmental plasticity in the thermal tolerance of zebrafish Danio rerio

To evaluate developmental plasticity in thermal tolerance of zebrafish Danio rerio , common-stock zebrafish were reared from fertilization to adult in the five thermal regimes (two stable, two with constant diel cycles and one stochastic diel cycle) and their thermal tolerance at three acclimation temperatures compared. The energetic cost of developing in the five regimes was assessed by measuring body size over time. While acclimation accounted for most of the variability in thermal tolerance, there were also significant differences among fish reared in the different regimes, regardless of acclimation. Fish reared in more variable environments (as much as ±6° C diel cycle) had a greater tolerance than those from non-variable environments at the same mean temperature. Fish from the more variable environments were also significantly smaller than those from non-variable environments. These results indicate that the thermal history of individual zebrafish induces irreversible changes to the thermal tolerance of adults.     

In a variable thermal environment selection favors greater plasticity of cell membranes in Drosophila melanogaster

Theory predicts that developmental plasticity, the capacity to change phenotypic trajectory during development, should evolve when the environment varies sufficiently among generations, owing to temporal (e.g., seasonal) variation or to migration among environments. We characterized the levels of cellular plasticity during development in populations of Drosophila melanogaster experimentally evolved for over three years in either constant or temporally variable thermal environments. We used two measures of the lipid composition of cell membranes as indices of physiological plasticity (a.k.a. acclimation): (1) change in the ratio of phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) to phosphatidylcholine (PC) and (2) change in lipid saturation (number of double bonds) in cool (16°C) relative to warm (25°C) developmental conditions. Flies evolved under variable environments had a greater capacity to acclimate the PE/PC ratio compared to flies evolved in constant environments, supporting the prediction that environments with high among-generation variance favor greater developmental plasticity. Our results are consistent with the selective advantage of a more environmentally sensitive allele that may have associated costs in constant environments.     

Transgenerational effects alleviate severe fecundity loss during ocean acidification in a ubiquitous planktonic copepod

Ocean acidification (OA) caused by anthropogenic CO₂ emission is projected for thousands of years to come, and significant effects are predicted for many marine organisms. While significant evolutionary responses are expected during such persistent environmental change, most studies consider only short‐term effects. Little is known about the transgenerational effects of parental environments or natural selection on the capacity of populations to counter detrimental OA effects. In this study, six laboratory populations of the calanoid copepod Pseudocalanus acuspes were established at three different CO₂ partial pressures (pCO₂ of 400, 900 and 1550 μatm) and grown for two generations at these conditions. Our results show evidence of alleviation of OA effects as a result of transgenerational effects in P. acuspes. Second generation adults showed a 29% decrease in fecundity at 900 μatm CO₂ compared to 400 μatm CO₂. This was accompanied by a 10% increase in metabolic rate indicative of metabolic stress. Reciprocal transplant tests demonstrated that this effect was reversible and the expression of phenotypic plasticity. Furthermore, these tests showed that at a pCO₂ exceeding the natural range experienced by P. acuspes (1550 μatm), fecundity would have decreased by as much as 67% compared to at 400 μatm CO₂ as a result of this plasticity. However, transgenerational effects partly reduced OA effects so that the loss of fecundity remained at a level comparable to that at 900 μatm CO₂. This also relieved the copepods from metabolic stress, and respiration rates were lower than at 900 μatm CO₂. These results highlight the importance of tests for transgenerational effects to avoid overestimation of the effects of OA.     

Adaptation to temperate climates

Only model organisms live in a world of endless summer. Fitness at temperate latitudes reflects the ability of organisms in nature to exploit the favorable season, to mitigate the effects of the unfavorable season, and to make the timely switch from one life style to the other. Herein, we define fitness as Ry, the year-long cohort replacement rate across all four seasons, of the mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, reared in its natural microhabitat in processor-controlled environment rooms. First, we exposed cohorts of W. smithii, from southern, midlatitude, and northern populations (30-50 degrees N) to southern and northern thermal years during which we factored out evolved differences in photoperiodic response. We found clear evidence of evolved differences in heat and cold tolerance among populations. Relative cold tolerance of northern populations became apparent when populations were stressed to the brink of extinction; relative heat tolerance of southern populations became apparent when the adverse effects of heat could accumulate over several generations. Second, we exposed southern, midlatitude, and northern populations to natural, midlatitude day lengths in a thermally benign midlatitude thermal year. We found that evolved differences in photoperiodic response (1) prevented the timely entry of southern populations into diapause resulting in a 74% decline in fitness, and (2) forced northern populations to endure a warm-season diapause resulting in an 88% decline in fitness. We argue that reciprocal transplants across latitudes in nature always confound the effects of the thermal and photic environment on fitness. Yet, to our knowledge, no one has previously held the thermal year constant while varying the photic year. This distinction is crucial in evaluating the potential impact of climate change. Because global warming in the Northern Hemisphere is proceeding faster at northern than at southern latitudes and because this change represents an amelioration of the thermal environment and a concomitant increase in the duration of the growing season, we conclude that there should be more rapid evolution of photoperiodic response than of thermal tolerance as a consequence of global warming among northern, temperate ectotherms.     

Evolution of thermal performance curves: A meta-analysis of selection experiments

Temperatures are increasing due to global changes, putting biodiversity at risk. Organisms are faced with a limited set of options to cope with this situation: adapt, disperse or die. We here focus on the first possibility, more specifically, on evolutionary adaptations to temperature. Ectotherms are usually characterized by a hump-shaped relationship between fitness and temperature, a non-linear reaction norm that is referred to as thermal performance curve (TPC). To understand and predict impacts of global change, we need to know whether and how such TPCs evolve. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature search and a statistical meta-analysis focusing on experimental evolution and artificial selection studies. This focus allows us to directly quantify relative fitness responses to temperature selection by calculating fitness differences between TPCs from ancestral and derived populations after thermal selection. Out of 7561 publications screened, we found 47 studies corresponding to our search criteria representing taxa across the tree of life, from bacteria, to plants and vertebrates. We show that, independently of species identity, the studies we found report a positive response to temperature selection. Considering entire TPC shapes, adaptation to higher temperatures traded off with fitness at lower temperatures, leading to niche shifts. Effects were generally stronger in unicellular organisms. By contrast, we do not find statistical support for the often discussed “Hotter is better” hypothesis. While our meta-analysis provides evidence for adaptive potential of TPCs across organisms, it also highlights that more experimental work is needed, especially for under-represented taxa, such as plants and non-model systems.     

The effect of five organophosphorus insecticides on survival and temperature tolerance in the copepod, Macrocyclops albidus (Copepoda: Cyclopidae)

Macrocyclops albidus were exposed for 24 hours to ABATE®, fenthion, malathion, methyl parathion, and chlorpyrifos at concentrations of 1, 5, 10, 25, and 50 parts per billion (ppb). Exposure to chlorpyrifos resulted in the greatest mortality to M. albidus; concentrations of 25 and 50 ppb caused 100% mortality. The thermal tolerance was lowered significantly by all chemicals at concentrations from 1 to 50 ppb.     

Geographic variation in adult and embryonic desiccation tolerance in a terrestrial-breeding frog

Intraspecific variation in the ability of individuals to tolerate environmental perturbations is often neglected when considering the impacts of climate change. Yet this information is potentially crucial for mitigating deleterious effects of climate change on threatened species. Here we assessed patterns of intraspecific variation in desiccation tolerance in the frog Pseudophryne guentheri, a terrestrial-breeding species experiencing a drying climate. Adult frogs were collected from six populations across a rainfall gradient and their dehydration and rehydration rates were assessed. We also compared desiccation tolerance of embryos and hatchlings originating from within-population parental crosses from four of the populations. Embryos were reared on soil at three soil–water potentials and their desiccation tolerance was assessed across a range of traits. We found significant and strong patterns of intraspecific variation in almost all traits, both in adults and first-generation offspring. Adult frogs exhibited clinal variation in their water balance responses, with populations from drier sites both dehydrating and rehydrating more slowly compared to frogs from more mesic sites. Similarly, desiccation tolerance of first-generation offspring was significantly greater in populations from xeric sites. Our findings suggest that populations within this species will respond differently to the regional reduction in rainfall predicted by climate change models.     

Intraspecific variation in tolerance of warming in fishes

Intraspecific variation in key traits such as tolerance of warming can have profound effects on ecological and evolutionary processes, notably responses to climate change. The empirical evidence for three primary elements of intraspecific variation in tolerance of warming in fishes is reviewed. The first is purely mechanistic that tolerance varies across life stages and as fishes become mature. The limited evidence indicates strongly that this is the case, possibly because of universal physiological principles. The second is intraspecific variation that is because of phenotypic plasticity, also a mechanistic phenomenon that buffers individuals’ sensitivity to negative impacts of global warming in their lifetime, or to some extent through epigenetic effects over successive generations. Although the evidence for plasticity in tolerance to warming is extensive, more work is required to understand underlying mechanisms and to reveal whether there are general patterns. The third element is intraspecific variation based on heritable genetic differences in tolerance, which underlies local adaptation and may define long-term adaptability of a species in the face of ongoing global change. There is clear evidence of local adaptation and some evidence of heritability of tolerance to warming, but the knowledge base is limited with detailed information for only a few model or emblematic species. There is also strong evidence of structured variation in tolerance of warming within species, which may have ecological and evolutionary significance irrespective of whether it reflects plasticity or adaptation. Although the overwhelming consensus is that having broader intraspecific variation in tolerance should reduce species vulnerability to impacts of global warming, there are no sufficient data on fishes to provide insights into particular mechanisms by which this may occur.     

Thermally tolerant corals have limited capacity to acclimatize to future warming

Thermal stress affects organism performance differently depending on the ambient temperature to which they are acclimatized, which varies along latitudinal gradients. This study investigated whether differences in physiological responses to temperature are consistent with regional differences in temperature regimes for the stony coral Oculina patagonica. To resolve this question, we experimentally assessed how colonies originating from four different locations characterized by >3 °C variation in mean maximum annual temperature responded to warming from 20 to 32 °C. We assessed plasticity in symbiont identity, density, and photosynthetic properties, together with changes in host tissue biomass. Results show that, without changes in the type of symbiont hosted by coral colonies, O. patagonica has limited capacity to acclimatize to future warming. We found little evidence of variation in overall thermal tolerance, or in thermal optima, in response to spatial variation in ambient temperature. Given that the invader O. patagonica is a relatively new member of the Mediterranean coral fauna, our results also suggest that coral populations may need to remain isolated for a long period of time for thermal adaptation to potentially take place. Our study indicates that for O. patagonica, mortality associated with thermal stress manifests primarily through tissue breakdown under moderate but prolonged warming (which does not impair symbiont photosynthesis and, therefore, does not lead to bleaching). Consequently, projected global warming is likely to cause repeat incidents of partial and whole colony mortality and might drive a gradual range contraction of Mediterranean corals.     

Biogeographic responses of the copepod Calanus glacialis to a changing Arctic marine environment

Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual‐based model coupled to an ice‐ocean‐biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature‐ and food‐dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35‐year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large‐scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems.     

Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems

The world's oceans are highly impacted by climate change and other human pressures, with significant implications for marine ecosystems and the livelihoods that they support. Adaptation for both natural and human systems is increasingly important as a coping strategy due to the rate and scale of ongoing and potential future change. Here, we conduct a review of literature concerning specific case studies of adaptation in marine systems, and discuss associated characteristics and influencing factors, including drivers, strategy, timeline, costs, and limitations. We found ample evidence in the literature that shows that marine species are adapting to climate change through shifting distributions and timing of biological events, while evidence for adaptation through evolutionary processes is limited. For human systems, existing studies focus on frameworks and principles of adaptation planning, but examples of implemented adaptation actions and evaluation of outcomes are scarce. These findings highlight potentially useful strategies given specific social–ecological contexts, as well as key barriers and specific information gaps requiring further research and actions.