A genetic metapopulation model for reef fishes in oceanic islands: the case of the surgeonfish,Acanthurus triostegus

Allozyme data on a surgeonfish, Acanthurus triostegus, were analysed from 10 islands in French Polynesia. We compared estimates of gene flow according to the hypothesis of an equilibrium between genetic drift and migration, and estimated genetic divergence times assuming complete genetic isolation without gene flow since foundation. The significant correlation between genetic divergence and geographic distance, at the within-archipelago level (r = 0.709, P = 0.024) indicates exchange of individuals mainly between neighbouring populations. The correlation was, however, not significant at the among-archipelagoes level (r = 0.325, P = 0.330), suggesting that long distance migrations are more sporadic. This addresses the problem of scale in population biology. According to the spatial scale of analysis, results can change from an island model, with no relation between genetic differentiation and geographical distances between archipelagos, to an isolation-by-distance model within an archipelago. These factors lead us to propose a “patchy population” model, in which all patches are occupied and reproductively active, though with few successful migrations between neighbouring populations. This model describes a subdivided population that is stable through time, with an amount of gene flow small enough to allow significant local differentiation in neutral gene frequency, but high enough to prevent differential fixation in the long term, and therefore preserving the genetic cohesion of the species.     

How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models

Criticism has been levelled at climate‐change‐induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real‐world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological‐niche‐population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40‐year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological‐niche‐population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid‐cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.     

Genetic and ecological data provide incongruent interpretations of population structure and dispersal in naturally subdivided populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura)

The dispersal of individuals among populations affects the demographic and adaptive trajectories of animal populations and is fundamental to understanding population dynamics. White-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura) are a high elevation grouse species that live year-round in patchily distributed alpine areas in western North America. We investigated the patterns of dispersal and identified barriers to gene flow for a threatened subspecies (L. l. saxatilis) endemic to Vancouver Island, Canada. Connectivity among seven sites was examined using nine microsatellite loci (n = 133 individuals, H(O) = 0.62, mean number of alleles = 10) and direct movement observations using radio-telemetry (n = 118 individuals). Average movement distances of individuals measured by radio-telemetry were 0.63-3.23 km and considerably less than the shortest distance between sampling sites (18 km). Furthermore, despite extensive radio-telemetry data, movement was never observed between any of the seven sampling sites. In contrast, genetic results (STRUCTURE, TESS) showed connectivity among most of the seven sampling sites and suggested that genetic variation is best explained by two clusters of individuals which separated the South sampling site from all other areas of Vancouver Island. Analysis of molecular data also showed a generally consistent pattern of isolation by distance (Mantel test r = 0.11, P < 0.01) with large areas of unsuitable low elevation habitat possibly acting as barriers to gene flow. Despite the naturally subdivided distribution of populations, white-tailed ptarmigan do not fit well into any common definition of a metapopulation. We conclude the incongruities between the genetic and radio-telemetry data are best explained by episodic dispersal patterns. In this study, we demonstrated the importance of combining genetic and ecological data in understanding patterns of dispersal and population structure.     

The effect of migratory behaviour on genetic diversity and population divergence: a comparison of anadromous and freshwater Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

The genetic diversity of anadromous and freshwater Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) populations from north-west Russia and other north European locations was compared using microsatellite variation to evaluate the importance of anadromous migration, population size and population glacial history in determining population genetic diversity and divergence. In anadromous Atlantic salmon populations, the level of genetic diversity was significantly higher and the level of population divergence was significantly lower than among the freshwater Atlantic salmon populations, even after correcting for differences in stock size. The phylogeographic origin of the populations also had a significant effect on the genetic diversity characteristics of populations: anadromous populations from the basins of the Atlantic Ocean, White Sea and Barents Sea possessed higher levels of genetic diversity than anadromous populations from the Baltic Sea basin. Among the freshwater populations, the result was the opposite: the Baltic freshwater populations were more variable. The results of this study imply that differences in the level of long-term gene flow between freshwater populations and anadromous populations have led to different levels of genetic diversity, which was also evidenced by the hierarchical analysis of molecular variance. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of taking the life history of a population into consideration when developing conservation strategies: due to the limited possibilities for new genetic diversity to be generated via gene flow, it is expected that freshwater Atlantic salmon populations would be more vulnerable to extinction following a population crash. Hence, high conservation status is warranted in order to ensure the long-term survival of the limited number of European populations with this life-history strategy.     

Population structure and gene flow reversals in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over contemporary and long-term temporal scales: effects of population size and life history

Metapopulation dynamics are increasingly invoked in management and conservation of endangered species. In this context, asymmetrical gene flow patterns can be density dependent, with migration occurring mainly from larger into smaller populations, which may depend on it for their persistence. Using genetic markers, such patterns have recently been documented for various organisms including salmonids, suggesting this may be a more general pattern. However, metapopulation theory does not restrict gene flow asymmetry to 'source-sink' structures, nor need these patterns be constant over longer evolutionary timescales. In anadromous salmonids, gene flow can be expected to be shaped by various selective pressures underlying homing and dispersal ('straying') behaviours. The relative importance of these selective forces will vary spatially and for populations of different census size. Furthermore, the consequences of life-history variation among populations for dispersal and hence gene flow remain poorly quantified. We examine population structure and connectivity in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) from Newfoundland and Labrador, a region where populations of this species are relatively pristine. Using genetic variation at 13 microsatellite loci from samples (N=1346) collected from a total of 20 rivers, we examine connectivity at several regional and temporal scales and test the hypothesis that the predominant direction of gene flow is from large into small populations. We reject this hypothesis and find that the directionality of migration is affected by the temporal scale over which gene flow is assessed. Whereas large populations tend to function as sources of dispersal over contemporary timescales, such patterns are often changed and even reversed over evolutionary, coalescent-derived timescales. These patterns of population structure furthermore vary between different regions and are compatible with demographic and life-history attributes. We find no evidence for sex-biased dispersal underlying gene flow asymmetry. Our findings caution against generalizations concerning the directionality of gene flow in Atlantic salmon and emphasize the need for detailed regional study, if such information is to be meaningfully applied in conservation and management of salmonids.     

Fine-scale genetic pattern and evidence for sex-biased dispersal in the túngara frog, Physalaemus pustulosus

Túngara frogs (Physalaemus pustulosus) are a model system for sexual selection and communication. Population dynamics and gene flow are of major interest in this species because they influence speciation processes and microevolution, and could consequently provide a deeper understanding of the evolutionary processes involved in mate recognition. Although earlier studies have documented genetic variation across the species' range, attempts to investigate dispersal on a local level have been limited to mark-recapture studies. These behavioural studies indicated high mobility at a scale of several hundred metres. In this study we used seven highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to investigate fine-scaled genetic variation in the túngara frog. We analysed the influence of geographical distance on observed genetic patterns, examined the influence of a river on gene flow, and tested for sex-biased dispersal. Data for 668 individuals from 17 populations ranging in distance from 0.26 to 11.8 km revealed significant levels of genetic differentiation among populations. Genetic differentiation was significantly correlated with geographic distance. A river acted as an efficient barrier to gene flow. Several tests of sex-biased dispersal were conducted. Most of them showed no difference between the sexes, but variance of Assignment Indices exhibited a statistically significant male bias in dispersal.     

No evidence of population structure across three isolated subpopulations of Russula brevipes in an oak/pine woodland

Russula brevipes is common ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungus that is associated with several hosts across temperate forest ecosystems. A previous study has demonstrated that substructuring across large geographic distances (1500 km) occurs in the western USA. To examine genetic structure over a more localized scale, basidiocarps of Russula brevipes from three subpopulations, separated by distances of 230-1090 m, were collected over two consecutive years in an oak/pine woodland. Microsatellite loci were used to test for population differentiation both among subpopulations and by year. No significant population differentiation was detected between subpopulations (theta(ST) = 0.01) or between years (theta(ST) = 0.01). Most loci were consistent with a Hardy-Weinburg equilibrium and 82% of the genets between seasons from similar sampling localities constituted new genotypes. These results indicate that R. brevipes constitutes a randomly mating population with no genetic differentiation between locations or across successive fruiting seasons.