Frequency of first-cousin marriages from civil marriage certificates in Argentina

In Argentina information concerning relatedness of mates, especially first cousins, was introduced into the legal marriage certificate, record, and statistical report in 1968. The 1980-1981 biennial data, including 212,320 legal marriage reports, were analyzed for all of Argentina, subdivided into 22 states and 494 counties. The registered 0.373% of first-cousin marriages allows an estimate of consanguineous marriages of 0.629% and a mean inbreeding coefficient of alpha = 0.00031. This estimate lies between the observed alpha = 0.00011 from hospital births and alpha = 0.00052 from Roman Catholic Church dispensations. These differences are not large, and they may be due to sampling variations, indicating a low rate of inbreeding in Argentina. The frequency of first-cousin marriages in the 22 Argentine states is heterogenous, and 9 counties, representing 5 different regions, were identified as having a high rate of first-cousin marriage. Three of these were previously known as genetic isolates. A second series of data, including all 32,690 legal marriages registered in the state of Buenos Aires during the first half of 1984, showed a frequency of first-cousin marriages of 0.677%. First-cousin mates, compared with non-first-cousin mates, had a higher frequency of both mates being born in the same state of Buenos Aires and similar frequency distributions for age at marriage, single previous marriage status, level of education, and rate of unemployment. It is concluded that legal marriage data on consanguinity is reliable, inexpensive, universal, and enduring. The last two characteristics make them suitable for the survey of geographic clusters and time trends.     

Same Sex Marriage and the Perceived Assault on Opposite Sex Marriage

Background

Marriage benefits both individuals and societies, and is a fundamental determinant of health. Until recently same sex couples have been excluded from legally recognized marriage in the United States. Recent debate around legalization of same sex marriage has highlighted for anti-same sex marriage advocates and policy makers a concern that allowing same sex couples to marry will lead to a decrease in opposite sex marriages. Our objective is to model state trends in opposite sex marriage rates by implementation of same sex marriages and other same sex unions.

Methods and Findings

Marriage data were obtained for all fifty states plus the District of Columbia from 1989 through 2009. As these marriage rates are non-stationary, a generalized error correction model was used to estimate long run and short run effects of same sex marriages and strong and weak same sex unions on rates of opposite sex marriage. We found that there were no significant long-run or short run effects of same sex marriages or of strong or weak same sex unions on rates of opposite sex marriage.

Conclusion

A deleterious effect on rates of opposite sex marriage has been argued to be a motivating factor for both the withholding and the elimination of existing rights of same sex couples to marry by policy makers–including presiding justices of current litigation over the rights of same sex couples to legally marry. Such claims do not appear credible in the face of the existing evidence, and we conclude that rates of opposite sex marriages are not affected by legalization of same sex civil unions or same sex marriages.     

The relationship between abortion rates and economic fluctuations

We analyze the relationship between abortions and economic fluctuation at the U.S. state level for the 1995–2016 period. We do not find a statistically significant association between the overall abortion rate and the unemployment rate across the full sample period. However, we observe a procyclical association from approximately 2004 to 2010, during which a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 5% decrease in the abortion rate. This procyclical association is confirmed when we subsample our data to the 2005–2016 period. Our subgroup analysis indicates a procyclical association for the abortion rates for younger women, while we do not observe statistically significant associations when the analysis is stratified by race or ethnicity. The associations we observe for the younger age groups are especially pronounced in states with restrictions on Medicaid funding of abortions. Our analysis suggests that economic conditions may be an important factor in the reproductive choices by women.     

Trends in consanguinity in South India

This study uses data from the 1992-93 National Family Health Survey to assess trends in consanguinity in the South Indian states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, the frequency of consanguineous marriages is very low and one type of preferred marriage of the Dravidian marriage system uncle niece marriage--is conspicuously absent. In the other states of South India, consanguinity and the coefficient of inbreeding are high. While no change in consanguinity is observed during the past three to four decades in Karnataka, a definite decline is observed in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Due to recent changes in the demographic and social situation in these states, this decline in consanguinity is likely to continue.     

Estimates of cousin marriage and mean inbreeding in the United Kingdom from 'birth briefs'

From 626 ascendant genealogies, known as 'birth briefs', deposited by members of the Society of Genealogists in their London library, rates of consanguineous marriage and coefficients of mean inbreeding (a) of offspring were estimated for cohorts of marriages contracted in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The rate of first cousin marriage in the generation estimated to have married during the 1920s was 0.32%, with no marriages between second cousins. The mean inbreeding coefficient for the offspring of these marriages was estimated as 0.0002. In the previous generation 1.12% of the marriages were between first cousins, and the estimate of mean inbreeding was 0.0007. Comparison with data taken from the published literature suggests that the levels of cousin marriage observed are consistent with a secular decline during the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries.     

Fertility and legal abortion in England and Wales: performance indicators for family planning services.

The relation between fertility rates and legal abortion rates was investigated in a sample of health authorities in England and Wales to see how these varied. Total period fertility rates and total period legal abortion rates were derived from the average number of live births or legal abortions that would be experienced per woman if women experienced the age specific rates of the year in question throughout their childbearing years. The sample of 30 health authorities was selected by taking the districts with the highest and lowest fertility rates in each English region and in Wales in 1986. Total period fertility rates varied from 1.37 in Riverside to 2.42 in Tower Hamlets, while abortion rates varied from 0.25 in East Yorkshire to 0.99 in Riverside. When the two rates were added to provide a potential fertility rate it became clear that some districts with similar potential fertility rates had very different underlying component rates. Such comparisons can be used for service monitoring, indicating the need for better abortion and family planning services in districts with high fertility rates and for better family planning services in those with high abortion rates.     

Continuing fertility transitions in a plural society: ethnic trends and differentials in Peninsular Malaysia

Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia has declined continuously from the late 1950s, reaching a total fertility rate of 3735 in 1983. All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analyzed. There has been a tendency, in each ethnic group, for the age distribution within the group of reproductive-age women to grow younger, reflecting the entry into the younger reproductive ages of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and early 1960s. The effect of this on crude birth rates is hard to determine, because rising age at marriage and increasing use of contraception meant that fertility was increasingly concentrated in the more central reproductive ages. By the 1990s, the earlier declines in fertility will bring about a decline in the proportion of the total population made up of females in the main reproductive ages. After that point, further declines in fertility will be reflected in a sharper decline in the crude birth rate and hence the rate of population increase. Between 1947 and 1980, the age at marriage changed dramatically for females of all ethnic groups. The transition to higher age at marriage for Chinese was completed earlier, and since 1970 has risen by only a year. For Malays and Indians, the rise began later, proceeded faster and continued right up to 1980 when the medium ages at 1st marriage were Malays 22, Indians 23, Chinese 24 years. In 1980, Malay women on average were marrying 5 years later, and Indian women 6 years later than had their mothers' generation in 1947. The proportion never-married among Malay and Indian women aged 20-24 rose from 1/10 to 1/2 over this period; relatively greater changes are evident at ages 25-29. Other factors are the almost complete shift from parent-arranged to self-arranged marriages. Family size desired has decreased for all groups and the decline in breastfeeding has been offset by the sharp increase in the practice of contraception. Continuation of these trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace.     

Legalized Abortion in Japan

The enactment of the Eugenic Protection Act in Japan was followed by many changes. The population explosion was stemmed, the birth rate was halved, and while the marriage rate remained steady the divorce rate declined. The annual total of abortions increased until 1955 and then slowly declined. The highest incidence of abortions in families is in the 30 to 34 age group when there are four children in the family. As elsewhere abortion in advanced stages of pregnancy is associated with high morbidity and mortality.There is little consensus as to the number of criminal abortions. Reasons for criminal abortions can be found in the legal restrictions concerning abortion: Licensing of the abortionist, certification of hospitals, taxation of operations and the requirement that abortion be reported. Other factors are price competition and the patient''s desire for secrecy.Contraception is relatively ineffective as a birth control method in Japan. Oral contraceptives are not yet government approved. In 1958 alone 1.1 per cent of married women were sterilized and the incidence of sterilization was increasing.     

Stable aggregate fertility in a time of family change: a decomposition of trends in American fertility, 1970-1999

Population-level birth rates in the United States were largely stable between 1970 and 1999. This stability contrasts with rapid change in marriage rates and fertility timing during the same period. In this article, I use decomposition techniques to analyze this seeming paradox. I decompose the general fertility rate into four components: age distribution, marital status, age-specific nonmarital fertility, and age-specific marital fertility. Absent other changes, declining time spent married would have led to substantial decline in fertility. Several factors combined to counterbalance these changes in marital behavior. Among white women in the 1970s and 1980s, marital fertility rates increased at older ages, consistent with a scenario in which women postponed both marriage and childbearing; increased nonmarital birth rates during this period were not a driving factor in overall fertility trends. Increased nonmarital fertility was more important in compensating for declining time spent married among African American women and among white women in the 1990s.     

The practice of consanguineous marriage in oman: prevalence, trends and determinants

The practice of consanguineous marriage has been the culturally preferred form of marriage in most Arab and the Middle Eastern countries, including Oman, but due to a paucity of population-based data in the past there is a dearth of information about its form and dynamics in Oman. Recent national-level surveys allow this gap to be filled. This paper examines the prevalence, trends and determinants of consanguineous marriages in Oman using data from the 2000 Oman National Health Survey. The results indicate a very high prevalence of consanguineous marriage in Oman, as more than half (52%) of marriages are consanguineous. First cousin unions are the most common type of consanguineous unions, constituting 39% of all marriages and 75% of all consanguineous marriages. The study observed various patterns of consanguinity, some of them common with other Arab nations, and some unique in nature. Women's age at marriage, employment, place of childhood residence and geographical region appear to be significant determinants of consanguineous marriages. Consanguineous marriage shows a strong association with marital stability, early age at marriage and early-age childbearing. There has been no appreciable change in the prevalence of consanguineous unions in Oman over the last four decades despite massive socioeconomic development and modernization. However, recent marriage cohorts show slight declining trends. The results suggest that consanguinity is likely to remain stable in the future or decline at a slow rate. Specific health education and genetic counselling should be followed in line with WHO recommendations to minimize the negative health consequences of consanguinity for child health.     

Age at marriage in Sri Lanka: stabilizing or declining?

Over the last four decades in Sri Lanka, age at first marriage for males increased marginally, and for females it rose considerably, but there has been no recent increase in female age at marriage. Among the younger cohorts, estimated ages at which some married indeed show a declining mean age at marriage. Coale-McNeil estimates indicate that there is no real decline in female age at marriage in Sri Lanka. Marriages were delayed as a result of economic hardship or increased mortality to the mid-1970s, but once the overall economy improved after 1977, more marriages took place. Female age at marriage in Sri Lanka remained slightly below 24 years, the age which is anticipated by younger cohorts, and this level is likely to persist for some time.     

Newer fashions in illegitimacy.

In 1968 Illsley and Gill examined the rise in illegitimacy in the decade 1955-65 and showed that this rise, unlike rises in the first and second world wars, had not been accompanied by a fall in prenuptial conceptions but by a rise. Statistics from 1970 to 1975 have been examined and a third parameter, legal abortion, added. After a period characterised by an apparent rise in the total of extramarital conceptions there has since 1972 been a decline; and in the age group 20-24 this fall dates from 1971. Improved contraceptive practice is probably the reason.     

Spontaneous abortion and subsequent Down syndrome livebirth

Summary Analyses of two data sets are presented, one based on nationwide hospital discharges for the USA for 1970–1971, the other for Upstate New York vital record data for 1976–1981. Summary relative risks of a Down syndrome livebirth were calculated within the three maternal age categories below 20, 20–29, and 30 years and above for those with a history of one spontaneous abortion and for those with a history of two or more, compared to those with no reported previous abortions. There was significant heterogeneity by age and reproductive history in the relative risk of an affected child. In general the trends revealed that the younger the mother and the more the number of abortions, the higher the relative risk of a Down syndrome livebirth compared to the rates for women of the same age for those with no previous abortions. Extrapolation from average maternal age specific rates on Down syndrome imply a rate per 1000 livebirths somewhere in the range of 1.1 to 11.4 for women under 20 years with a history of one spontaneous abortion, of 5.2 to 13.4 for women under 20 years with a history of two or more spontaneous abortions, and of 1.0 to 2.4 for women 20 to 29 years with a history of two or more spontaneous abortions. (Average background livebirth rates in women under 30 years are, in contrast, in the range of about 0.5 to 1.0 per 1000 and for the average woman aged 35 years, at which prenatal diagnosis is usually felt to be indicated, 2.7 per 1000.) For those in the other categories these data did not reveal clinically significant effects upon average maternal age specific rates. It is emphasized that because of limitations in the data it is not possible to refine these risks by adjusting for karyotype, the age at which the abortions occurred, or other biologic and social factors associated with embryonic and fetal death. The implications of the analyses here for genetic counseling should be regarded as preliminary and tentative.     

Trends in ectopic pregnancy in Canada.

The incidence in Canada of one complication of sexually transmitted disease, ectopic pregnancy, was examined by age group for the years 1971 through 1980 by means of hospital statistics provided by Statistics Canada. The denominator was "reported pregnancies"--the total of live births, stillbirths, legal abortions and ectopic pregnancies in a given year. In 1980, 4123 ectopic pregnancies (9.3/1000 reported pregnancies) were reported, a 63% increase from 1970. The incidence had increased in each age stratum. This trend may be related to increasing rates of gonococcal infection and of hospitalization for pelvic inflammatory disease and lends confirmation to data from other countries that relate the increase in the rate of ectopic pregnancy to rising rates of sexually transmitted disease.     

The changing profile of consanguinity rates in Bahrain, 1990-2009

Consanguineous marriage is traditional and respected in most communities of North Africa, the Middle East and West Asia, including Bahrain, with intra-familial unions accounting for 20-50+% of all marriages. Significant secular changes in consanguinity rates have been reported in recent decades in different populations. Among parents of 14,237 newborns in Bahrain in 2008-2009, the total consanguinity and first cousin marriage rates over a period of four months in 2008 were 10.9% and 6.9% respectively, while during all of 2009 the rates were 11.4% and 6.8% respectively. The study confirms that over a ten-year period first cousin marriage rates in Bahrain have declined from 24% to nearly 7%. Although advice against cousin marriages was not attempted at any stage in the comprehensive community genetics programmes in Bahrain, increasing the literacy of the public and of the health care providers on prevention strategies for genetic diseases could have contributed to this decline in consanguinity rate in Bahrain.     

Intra-ethnic and inter-ethnic marriage and divorce in Hawaii

A comparison of intra- and inter-ethnic divorce rates in Hawaii showed that inter-ethnic marriages resulted in a higher proportion of divorces than did intra-ethnic marriages when the marriage data used had to do with all marriages occurring in Hawaii. However, a sizeable portion of marriages in Hawaii are of nonresidents who, if they divorce, probably divorce elsewhere. Nonresident marriages are chiefly intra-ethnic marriages of Caucasians. When examining the proportions of divorces to resident marriages, within-group marriages are more at risk than inter-ethnic marriages. As in prior research, persons who marry members of other racial/ethnic groups tend to marry persons from groups with income levels similar to their own. As in previous reports, some cross-ethnic combinations appeared more at risk for divorce than did others. Group income appeared to be a predictor of risk. When considering only resident marriages as related to divorces, those marriages in which the bride was from a higher income group than the groom were at a significantly greater risk for divorce than marriage in which the bride came from an income group lower than that of the groom.     

Genetic demography of the Kuznetsk Basin population: changes in marriage assortativeness with respect to ethnicity and age in the Belovo city population with time

A genetic demographic study has been performed in the city of Belovo with the use of the data on marriages contracted there in 1970 and 1994-1999. Marriage assortativeness with respect to age has been found to be the strongest and remain unchanged during the lifetime of one generation (r = 0.730 in 1970 and r = 0.801 in 1994-1999). Monoethnic marriages were substantially more frequent than interethnic ones in the Belovo population during the period studied, although the ethnic marriage assortativeness considerably decreased (K = 0.386 in 1970 and K = 0.141 in 1994-1999). Panmixia has been observed in the Russian population of Belovo. Other Eastern Slavs (Ukrainians and Belarussians) are characterized by negative marriage assortativeness and panmixia; positive marriage assortativeness has been found in other ethnic groups.     

Decline in coital rates with spouses' ages and duration of marriage

Cross-sectional and longitudinal study begun in 1974 of a large U.S. urban sample confirms that mean marital coital rates decline very rapidly over the 1st year of marriage. They seem to halve over the 1st year of marriage, and they they take perhaps another 20 years to halve again. This pattern of decline is interpreted as evidence against the suggestion that coital rates are closely related to female hormone levels. The higher correlation of marital coital rates with wife's age than with husband's age, it is argued here, is because wife's age is more closely associated than husband's age with duration of marriage (here seen as the most important of these 3 variables in the determination of coital rates). This is because of the substantially smaller variance of wife's age at marriage than husband's age at marriage. Maximum age at the beginning of the study was 44 for wives.     

Seasonality of births is associated with seasonality of marriages in Malta

This study was carried out to quantify secular trends in seasonal variation in births in Malta, a small Mediterranean country where the vast proportion of births occur in wedlock due to a predominantly Roman Catholic population. It also related such variations to seasonal variation in marriages. Annual seasonal peaks of marriages and births were analysed over the period 1950-1996 by X11 ARIMA. A significant peak in marriages (n = 111,932) in the third quarter of the year was found for almost the entire period under study. This was paralleled by a peak in births (n = 299,558) for the period 1970-1996, which lagged after the peak in marriages by 13-14 months. For the period 1994-1996, when monthly data for monthly pregnancies were available by pregnancy order, the peak in births was caused by first pregnancies only. Seasonal patterns in births occur almost universally due to cultural and/or biometeorological factors. The best known patterns include those of the southern United States, where births decline in April and May, and in northern Europe, where births peak in March and April. In Malta, the late summer peak in births appears to be due to a practical and planned approach by Maltese couples to contraceptive planning, probably influenced by the Roman Catholic ethos and social pressures, with unprotected intercourse occurring only after marriage. In Malta, birth control, albeit by so-called natural methods, was introduced in the 1960s. Prior to this period, births peaked towards the beginning/end of the year, and this may be the more natural seasonality of births in Malta.