Breeding latitude predicts timing but not rate of spring migration in a widespread migratory bird in South America

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Starting over: experimental effects of breeding delay on reproductive success in early‐arriving male American redstarts

Birds that arrive and breed early often have higher reproductive success than late individuals, either as a consequence of timing‐specific advantages (the timing hypothesis) or because these individuals and/or their resources are of higher quality (the quality hypothesis). In this study, we examined the potential influence of several factors affecting reproductive success by experimentally delaying breeding of early‐arriving male American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla, a species for which early male arrival is strongly related to increased reproductive success. Our manipulation involved the capture, holding, and release of males following pairing and territory establishment, resulting in the majority of subjects (67%) losing their initial mate (47%) or mate and territory (20%) and forcing them to start over approximately 12 d after their initial arrival. Males forced to start over (i.e. those losing their first territory and/or mate) did not experience any decrease in body condition, nor did their reproductive behaviour differ from that of early‐arriving control males. We found that naturally early‐arriving but experimentally manipulated males suffered reduced fledging success in comparison to early‐arriving males that bred early or late, but equivalent success in comparison to males that arrived and bred late. Based on our results, we propose that the relationship between early arrival and higher reproductive success in this species is mediated not simply by individual male quality or absolute arrival timing alone, but rather some other aspect of resource quality is likely important. We discuss and present evidence for two alternative explanations under the quality hypothesis: female quality and territory quality. To our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the effects of experimentally delaying male breeding time, strengthening previous correlational evidence for resource quality as a potentially important selective agent driving early arrival in migratory birds.     

Demographic variation in timing and intensity of feather molt in migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana)

Understanding the annual cycle of migratory birds is imperative for evaluating the evolution of life‐history strategies and developing effective conservation strategies. Yet, we still know little about the annual cycle of migratory birds that breed at south‐temperate latitudes of South America. We aged, sexed, and determined the progression and intensity of body, remige, and rectrix molt of migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana) at breeding sites in southern South America and at wintering sites in northern South America. Molt of both body and flight feathers occurred primarily during the winter. In early winter, a similar proportion of young and adult flycatchers molted remiges and rectrices, but remige molt intensity (number of remiges molting) was greater and primary molt progression (mean primary feather molting) more advanced in adults. In late winter, remige molt intensity and primary molt progression did not differ between age groups. We found no difference between males and females either in the proportion of individuals molting in winter or in the intensity or progress of remige molt. Our results suggest that the nominate subspecies of Fork‐tailed Flycatcher undergoes one complete, annual molt on the wintering grounds, and represents the first comprehensive evaluation of molt timing of a migratory New World flycatcher that overwinters in the tropics. Given that breeding, molt, and migration represent three key events in the annual cycle of migratory birds, knowledge of the timing of these events is the first step toward understanding the possible tradeoffs migratory birds face throughout the year.     

Early arrival, initiation of nesting, and social status: an experimental study of breeding female red-winged blackbirds

Red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) arrive at breedingsites several months before nests are constructed. Males inthis highly polygynous species presumably return early to defenddesirable territories. Females, however, also begin to arrivealmost two months before nesting is attempted. Early returnto breeding sites could enhance reproductive success by increasinga female's social status and thereby allowing earlier nesting.I measured the effect of experimentally delayed arrival on thetiming of nesting, reproductive success, and social status offemales. Birds were captured as they arrived in early springand detained in an aviary. These experimental females were laterreleased at their capture sites before control females beganconstruction of nests; controls had arrived during the sameperiod as experimentals but were not detained. Experimentalfemales nested, on average, more than a week later than controls,although I could detect no effect of timing on reproductivesuccess during this study. By manipulating arrival date, butnot covariates of arrival time such as age or experience, thisresult indicates that timing of arrival directly influencedlaying date. Delayed females were subordinate to control femaleswith the same mate. This decline in social status may have beenresponsible for the delay in nesting and could have fitnessconsequences for females in some years, because the offspringof earlier nesting, dominant birds are more likely to receivemale parental care in this population.     

Early arrival is not associated with more extra‐pair fertilizations in a long‐distance migratory bird

When assessing the benefits of early arrival date of migratory birds, a hidden and often ignored component of males’ fitness is the higher chance of early‐arriving birds to obtain extra‐pair fertilizations. Here we investigated how extra‐pair paternity might affect the relationship between male arrival date and number of fertilizations in a model study system, the European pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca. For this purpose, we sampled and genotyped breeding pairs, unpaired males and offspring (including embryos from unhatched eggs when possible) of a Dutch pied flycatcher population. Detailed information on arrival date of males, egg laying date of their social mates and nest success was also recorded. Early‐arriving males had early‐laying females and males with early‐laying females had a higher probability of siring extra‐pair eggs and obtain more fertilizations. However, male arrival date alone did not correlate with the probability to gain extra‐pair paternity and neither to the amount of fertilized eggs. Both early‐ and late‐arriving males had a higher probability of losing paternity in their own nest compared to birds with an intermediate arrival date. Finally, late‐arriving males were more likely to remain unpaired but, interestingly, a few of these birds obtained paternity via extra‐pair copulations. Because earlier arrival date did not lead to more extra‐pair fertilizations and because such relationship seems to be driven mainly by the female's laying date, we conclude that the contribution of extra‐pair paternity to the overall fitness benefits of early male arrival date is relatively small.     

Long‐term phenological shifts and intra‐specific differences in migratory change in the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus

Climate change can influence many aspects of avian phenology and especially migratory shifts and changes in breeding onset receive much research interest in this context. However, changes in these different life‐cycle events in birds are often investigated separately and by means of ringing records of mixed populations. In this long‐term study on the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus, we investigated timing of spring and autumn migration in conjunction with timing of breeding. We made distinction among individuals with regard to age, sex, juvenile origin and migratory phase. The data set comprised 22‐yr of ringing records and two temporally separated data sets of egg‐laying dates and arrival of the breeding population close to the ringing site. The results reveal an overall advancement consistent in most, but not all, phenological events. During spring migration, early and median passage of males and females became earlier by between 4.4 to 6.3 d and median egg‐laying dates became earlier by 5 d. Male arrival advanced more, which may lead to an increase in the degree of protandry in the future. Among breeding individuals, only female arrival advanced in timing. In autumn, adults and locally hatched juvenile females did not advanced median passage, but locally hatched juvenile males appeared 4.2 d earlier. Migrating juvenile males and females advanced passage both in early and median migratory phase by between 8.4 to 10.1 d. The dissimilarities in the response between birds of different age, sex and migratory phase emphasize that environmental change may elicit intra‐specific selection pressures. The overall consistency of the phenological change in spring, autumn and egg‐laying, coupled with the unchanged number of days between median spring and autumn migration in adults, indicate that the breeding area residence has advanced seasonally but remained temporally constant.     

Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones

Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, “tropical cyclone” refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process.     

Carry‐over effects and compensation: late arrival on non‐breeding grounds affects wing moult but not plumage or schedules of departing bar‐tailed godwits Limosa lapponica baueri

In the annual cycle of migratory birds, temporal and energetic constraints can lead to carry‐over effects, in which performance in one life history stage affects later stages. Bar‐tailed godwits Limosa lapponica baueri, which achieve remarkably high pre‐migratory fuel loads, undertake the longest non‐stop migratory flights yet recorded, and breed during brief high‐latitude summers, may be particularly vulnerable to persistent effects of disruptions to their rigidly‐timed annual routines. Using three years of non‐breeding data in New Zealand, we asked how arrival timing after a non‐stop flight from Alaska (>11 000 km) affected an individual godwit's performance in subsequent flight feather moult, contour feather moults, and migratory departure. Late arrival led to later wing moult, but godwits partially compensated for delayed moult initiation by increasing moult rate and decreasing the total duration of moult. Delays in arrival and wing moult up to 34–37 d had no apparent effect on an individual's migratory departure or extent of breeding plumage at departure, both of which were extraordinarily consistent between years. Thus, ‘errors’ in timing early in the non‐breeding season were essentially corrected in New Zealand prior to spring migration. Variation in migration timing also had no apparent effect on an individual's likelihood of returning the following season. The bar‐tailed godwits’ rigid maintenance of plumage and spring migration schedules, coupled with high annual survival, imply a surprising degree of flexibility to address unforeseen circumstances in the annual cycle.     

Reproductive behavior and spawning success of female Amblyglyphidodon leucogaster (Pisces: Pomacentridae) from the Red Sea

The reproductive behavior of female whitebelly damselfish, Amblyglyphidodon leucogaster, was investigated in the Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea over two breeding seasons. Females were promiscuous, mating with 7–10 different males throughout the season. Females lay eggs in distinct batches, defined as the total number of eggs laid in a day. Generally females deposit a batch of eggs with one male (87.2%) and are capable of laying a new batch every other day. Egg batch size averaged 4009 eggs and females laid from 2 to 22 egg batches per season. The variation in spawning success was not correlated to body size. Females preferred to deposit eggs in nests that already contained early stage eggs (0–2 days old). Within a nest, females chose to lay eggs contiguous to the youngest egg batch, regardless if the nest contained either a single batch or multiple batches of different ages. Female within-nest spawning patterns appear to be a consequence of between nest preferences for nests with young eggs. It is proposed that the strong within-nest preference is a consequence of mate selection where females may use new egg batches as a visual cue as part of a copying style. Such a style may reduce the risk of predation and increase feeding opportunities, because less time is expended in mate selection, which would provide additional resources for egg production and ultimately increase female spawning success over the breeding season. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Migration phenology and winter habitat quality are related to circulating androgen in a long‐distance migratory bird

In migratory birds, the timing of departure from wintering grounds is often dependant on the quality of habitat on an individual's territory and may influence individual fitness, resulting in an interaction of life history stages across large geographical distances. American redstart Setophaga ruticilla males who overwinter in high quality habitats arrive early to breed and subsequently produce more offspring than late arrivers. Since many migratory species overlap vernal migration with the physiological transition to breeding, we examined if breeding preparation plays a role in this seasonal interaction. We tested the hypothesis that early arriving male redstarts from high quality winter habitats are in superior breeding condition by simultaneously measuring winter habitat quality (stable‐carbon isotopes) and breeding preparation (circulating androgen, cloacal protuberance (CP) diameter) upon arrival at breeding grounds. Compared with late arrivers, early arriving males were from higher quality winter habitats and had higher androgen, but smaller CPs. Males arriving with higher androgen were in more advanced physiological migratory condition, as measured by haematocrit. Early arrivers were more likely to successfully breed, but there was no significant relationship between androgen upon arrival and breeding success. One possible explanation for these relationships is that androgen measured during arrival is most relevant in a migratory context, such that birds with high androgen may benefit from effects on migratory condition, positively influencing fitness through earlier arrival.     

BREEDING OF THE ADÉLIE PENGUIN PYGOSCELIS ADELIAE AT CAPE BIRD

Observations were made during four seasons (1967–68, 1968–69, 1969–70, 1970–71) on the breeding of Adelie Penguins at Cape Bird, Ross Island, Antarctica. Breeding data from individuals were related to date of return, laying date, clutch-size, nest location, and change of mate. Some females consistently laid near the mean date of laying, while others were consistently early or late layers. Laying date may be under direct genetic control, or may reflect feeding ability. The mean clutch-size was smaller in peripheral compared to central nests, and smallest of all in isolated nests. Clutches laid late in the season were smaller than those laid near the peak date, and small, late clutches were laid in peripheral rather than central nests. These differences may reflect age and/or feeding ability. Penguins that are better able to find food will return earlier, obtain central sites, and have larger clutches than those with a lesser ability. The two main causes of egg and chick losses were predation and parental failure. Losses were highest in single-egg clutches, at isolated and peripheral nests, and among eggs laid late in the season. These results may be partly related to the age and experience of the penguins. However, regardless of age, peripheral nesting and late laying were always disadvantageous. The sex ratio of adults in the colonies was 117♂:100♀. This may be explained by the higher mortality of females. Some males could not find partners, but females that did not breed had probably been unable to obtain sufficient food for gonad development. The return of penguins, incidence of non-breeding, adult mortality, clutch-size, and breeding success at Cape Bird were all markedly different in 1968–69 compared to the other three seasons studied. This season was marked by the persistence of sea-ice along the northwestern shores of Ross Island. The low reproductive output in 1968–69 was thought to result from a shortage of food for egg-laying and incubation.     

Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival‐breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival‐breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long‐term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival‐to‐breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg‐laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5–6 days), with considerable between‐individual variation in the arrival‐breeding interval. The arrival‐breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early‐arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first‐year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival‐breeding interval being absent in late‐arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early‐ to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late‐arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early‐ versus late‐arriving birds.     

Overtaking on migration: does longer distance migration always incur a penalty?

For many migratory bird species, the latitudinal range of the winter distribution spans thousands of kilometres, thus encompassing considerable variation in individual migration distances. Pressure to winter near breeding areas is thought to be a strong driver of the evolution of migration patterns, as individuals undertaking a shorter migration are generally considered to benefit from earlier arrival on the breeding grounds. However, the influence of migration distance on timing of arrival is difficult to quantify because of the large scales over which individuals must be tracked. Using a unique dataset of individually‐marked Icelandic black‐tailed godwits Limosa limosa islandica tracked throughout the migratory range by a network of hundreds of volunteer observers, we quantify the consequences of migrating different distances for the use of stop‐over sites and timing of arrival in Iceland. Modelling of potential flight distances and tracking of individuals from across the winter range shows that individuals wintering further from the breeding grounds must undertake a stop‐over during spring migration. However, despite travelling twice the distance and undertaking a stop‐over, individuals wintering furthest from the breeding grounds are able to overtake their conspecifics on spring migration and arrive earlier in Iceland. Wintering further from the breeding grounds can therefore be advantageous in migratory species, even when this requires the use of stop‐over sites which lengthen the migratory journey. As early arrival on breeding sites confers advantages for breeding success, the capacity of longer distance migrants to overtake conspecifics is likely to influence the fitness consequences of individual migration strategies. Variation in the quality of wintering and stopover sites throughout the range can therefore outweigh the benefits of wintering close to the breeding grounds, and may be a primary driver of the evolution of specific migration routes and patterns.     

Aspects of the reproductive ecology of the Hamerkop Scopus umbretta in central Mali

In a 4-year study of Hamerkops in central Mali, territories of breeding pairs overlapped and most clutches were laid in the late rainy or early dry seasons. Clutches averaged 4–8 eggs. Different pairs laid eggs having, on average, different dimensions. Eggs laid in the late rainy and early dry seasons were larger than those laid at other times. Eggs weighed, at 27-8 g, about 6% of adult female weight. Hatching success was 79% with a fledging rate of eggs hatched of 53%. Successful nests fledged 27 young but for all completed clutches the fledging rate was 0'9. Young hatched early in the sequence had a higher survival rate than those hatched later. Mean age at fledging was 47 days. Pairs fledged between 0–5 and 0–9 young per year.     

Protandrous migration and variation in morphological characters in Emberiza buntings at an East Asian stopover site

The effect of the timing of spring migration on reproductive success differs between the sexes. As a consequence, various sex‐specific tactics relating to the timing of migration have evolved in migratory avian groups. Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain differential migration to breeding or wintering grounds, and inter‐ and intrasexual size differences are often considered one of the proximate mechanisms. We investigated arrival patterns in the spring by individuals of each sex, sexual size dimorphism and related morphological variables, and the relationship between size variation and arrival date in five bunting species that passed through an East Asian migratory flyway stopover site in 2006–08. Males of all the study species arrived before females, and significant sexual dimorphism was observed. Several morphological characters, including total length, wing‐length and tail‐length, contributed to the size variation. Although larger males arrived earlier, there was no relationship between arrival date and size in females. Our study confirmed that East Asian buntings display a discriminated protandrous migration pattern at the stopover site as well as at the breeding grounds. This is consistent with the view that larger body size in males is favoured due to its association with early arrival to help ensure access to the best resources and hence enhanced mating success.     

No short‐ or long‐term effects of geolocator attachment detected in Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca

Tracking small passerines using miniaturized location tags is a rapidly expanding field of study. In a 1‐year study, we tested whether there were any short‐ or longer‐term effects of fitting geolocators weighing 3% of body mass on male Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. In the deployment year, we compared adult provisioning rates to nestlings, nestling growth and nest success between nesting attempts in which adult males were fitted with a geolocator, with control nests where males had the same capture history but were not tagged. We found no difference between treatments in provisioning effort by males or their associated female 2 days after geolocator fitting, in terms of nestling growth, subsequent brood reduction or nest success. Return rate, arrival date on territories, nest timing and breeding parameters were compared between tagged and untagged males in the following breeding season. We found no difference in return rate or arrival date, and no difference in nest timing, fecundity or outcome. Our study suggests that fitting lightweight tags to small passerines need not affect behaviour, breeding or apparent between‐year survival. However, tagging new species should still require assessment and comparison with well‐matched control cohorts, and it should be recognized that tag effects could vary between years and populations, mediated by environmental conditions.     

Early‐breeding females experience greater telomere loss

Annual reproductive success is often highest in individuals that initiate breeding early, yet relatively few individuals start breeding during this apparently optimal time. This suggests that individuals, particularly females who ultimately dictate when offspring are born, incur costs by initiating reproduction early in the season. We hypothesized that increases in the ageing rate of somatic cells may be one such cost. Telomeres, the repetitive DNA sequences on the ends of chromosomes, may be good proxies of biological wear and tear as they shorten with age and in response to stress. Using historical data from a long‐term study population of dark‐eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis), we found that telomere loss between years was greater in earlier breeding females, regardless of chronological age. There was no relationship between telomere loss and the annual number of eggs laid or chicks that reached independence. However, telomere loss was greater when temperatures were cooler, and cooler temperatures generally occur early in the season. This suggests that environmental conditions could be the primary cause of accelerated telomere loss in early breeders.     

Chick‐provisioning behaviour of two shearwaters breeding in south‐eastern Australia

The chick‐provisioning behaviour of the short‐tailed shearwater Puffinus tenuirostris and the wedge‐tailed shearwater Puffinus pacificus was investigated in a mixed colony on Montague Island, New South Wales, Australia, over two breeding seasons. This colony is located at opposite edges of the breeding distribution of the two species. Frequent weighing techniques were used to determine chick feeding frequency, feed timing, meal size, chick weight loss and indices of food conversion efficiency of the chicks. Short‐tailed shearwater parents fed their chicks larger more infrequent meals than wedge‐tailed shearwater parents. Short‐tailed shearwater chicks demonstrated higher food conversion efficiencies and lower weight loss than wedge‐tailed shearwater chicks, indicating either differences in diet or metabolic rates. The feeding frequency in wedge‐tailed shearwaters also fluctuated more widely than for short‐tailed shearwaters over the two breeding seasons. Despite the fact that the timing of the breeding cycle on Montague Island is almost identical for the two species, these differences in chick provisioning are probably a result of differences in prey type and location, so they may help explain variations in annual breeding success and limits to the distribution of the two species.     

Male song diversity and its relation to breeding success in southern house wrens Troglodytes aedon chilensis

Theory proposes an adaptive relationship between male song complexity, including large song repertoires, and improved breeding success. Evidence supporting these relationships exists but is sometimes mixed or weak. Here we provide a first comprehensive study of the relationship between male song diversity and breeding success in a non‐migratory, austral population of house wrens Troglodytes aedon chilensis breeding in Mendoza, Argentina. During a two‐year field study, we measured breeding success for a population of 62 males and recorded more than 34 000 songs from a subsample of 26 males. For the latter subsample, we tested for correlations between six measures of song diversity and four canonical measures of annual breeding success. Males that sang with greater overall syllable type diversity and that had larger song repertories paired with females that bred earlier and laid more eggs over the course of the breeding season. However, these males also showed lower levels of immediate song type diversity, as measured by the Levenshtein distance between successive songs. We discuss implications for the evolution of song complexity in this exceptionally widespread species and the selective mechanisms that might influence song complexity in resident populations in the Neotropics compared to migratory populations in the northern hemisphere.     

Individual repeatability in laying behaviour does not support the migratory carry‐over effect hypothesis of egg‐size dimorphism in Eudyptes penguins

Penguins of the genus Eudyptes are unique among birds in that their first‐laid A‐egg is 54–85% the mass of their second‐laid B‐egg. Although the degree of intra‐clutch egg‐size dimorphism varies greatly among the seven species of the genus, obligate brood reduction is typical of each, with most fledged chicks resulting from the larger B‐egg. Many authors have speculated upon why Eudyptes penguins have evolved and maintained a highly dimorphic 2‐egg clutch, and why it is the first‐laid egg that is so much smaller than the second, but only recently has a testable, proximate mechanism been proposed. In most species of Eudyptes penguins females appear to initiate egg‐formation at sea during return migration to breeding colonies. In macaroni penguins E. chrysolophus, females with a shorter pre‐laying interval ashore (and thus presumably greater overlap between migration and egg‐formation) lay more dimorphic eggs, suggesting a physiological conflict may constrain growth of the earlier‐initiated A‐egg. This migratory carry‐over effect hypothesis (MCEH) was tested in eastern rockhopper penguins E. chrysocome filholi on Campbell Island, New Zealand, by recording the arrival and lay dates, body sizes, and egg masses of transponder‐tagged females over two years. Females with longer pre‐laying intervals laid less dimorphic clutches, as predicted by the MCEH. However, repeated measures of individual females revealed that within‐individual variation in egg‐size dimorphism between years was unrelated to within‐individual variation in pre‐laying interval. Egg masses, and to a lesser extent egg‐size dimorphism, were highly repeatable traits related to body size and body mass. These results and a detailed consideration of the MCEH suggest that egg‐size dimorphism in Eudyptes penguins is unlikely to be caused by a migratory carry‐over effect.