Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?

How will climate change affect species'' reproduction and subsequent survival? In many egg-laying reptiles, the sex of offspring is determined by the temperature experienced during a critical period of embryonic development (temperature-dependent sex determination, TSD). Increasing air temperatures are likely to skew offspring sex ratios in the absence of evolutionary or plastic adaptation, hence we urgently require means for predicting the future distributions of species with TSD. Here we develop a mechanistic model that demonstrates how climate, soil and topography interact with physiology and nesting behaviour to determine sex ratios of tuatara, cold-climate reptiles from New Zealand with an unusual developmental biology. Under extreme regional climate change, all-male clutches would hatch at 100% of current nest sites of the rarest species, Sphenodon guntheri, by the mid-2080s. We show that tuatara could behaviourally compensate for the male-biasing effects of warmer air temperatures by nesting later in the season or selecting shaded nest sites. Later nesting is, however, an unlikely response to global warming, as many oviparous species are nesting earlier as the climate warms. Our approach allows the assessment of the thermal suitability of current reserves and future translocation sites for tuatara, and can be readily modified to predict climatic impacts on any species with TSD.     

Effect of gestation temperature on sexual and morphological phenotypes of offspring in a viviparous lizard, Eremias multiocellata

It has been documented in some reptiles that thermal environment can induce variation in sex ratio and morphological phenotypes of offspring. Here, the viviparous lizards (Eremias multiocellata) were maintained under different temperatures during pregnancy to test the effects of this treatment on sexual and morphological phenotypes of offspring, and to investigate whether this lizard is subject to temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). The warmer temperatures resulted in shorter gestation periods and a higher ratio of male: female births; however, gestation temperature did not affect the neonates’ body mass or snout–vent length (SVL). The gestation temperatures also had significant effects on the mean litter size. Therefore, our results show that the viviparous lizard E. multiocellata might be a TSD species, providing the mothers the opportunity to manipulate the sex ratio of their offspring.     

Sex ratios in naturally incubating Macrochelys temminckii nests,a species with type II temperature-dependent sex determination

The alligator snapping turtle, Macrochelys temminckii, exhibits type II temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), wherein females are produced at high and low incubation temperatures. This TSD pattern is well studied at constant temperatures, but little work has focused on sex ratios in natural nests that experience daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations. We monitored nesting activity of reintroduced Macrochelys temminckii at Tishomingo National Wildlife Refuge in 2010–2011. Nests located prior to predation were excavated to determine clutch size and the eggs were reburied with a temperature data logger to collect nest temperatures. Overall, 24% of nests were protected with wire mesh prior to predation, and the average clutch size in intact nests was 22.4 eggs. Nest predation rates in the study population will likely approach 100% if nest protection efforts do not continue. Temperature profiles were used to compare estimated sex ratios using two methods—mean nest temperature during middle third of incubation and the degree-day model—to actual sex ratios in naturally incubated Macrochelys temminckii nests. The sex ratio in all 2010 recruits was female-biased (91.8% female); 2011 nests did not produce any hatchlings, likely the result of severe drought. The predicted sex ratios based on mean nest temperature and the degree-day model matched actual sex ratios in the warmer nests (0% male), but the degree-day model estimate proved more accurate in the cooler nest. A strongly skewed population sex ratio could become a threat to this reintroduced population if the strongly female-biased sex ratio in 2010 reflects a long-term trend.     

The lesser known challenge of climate change: thermal variance and sex-reversal in vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination

Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particularly relevant given climate change predictions) has the same or opposite effects as around lower temperatures. Here we show that sex ratios of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) were reversed as fluctuations increased around low and high unisexual mean-temperatures. Unexpectedly, the developmental and sexual responses around female-producing temperatures were decoupled in a more complex manner than around male-producing values. Our novel observations are not fully explained by existing ecological models of development and sex determination, and provide strong evidence that thermal fluctuations are critical for shaping the biological outcomes of climate change.     

Temperature-dependent sex determination in fish revisited: prevalence, a single sex ratio response pattern, and possible effects of climate change

Background

In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD) or temperature-dependent (TSD). Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1–2°C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1∶1 (males∶females) up to 3∶1 in both freshwater and marine species.

Conclusions/Significance

We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change.     

Nest-site selection in two eublepharid gecko species with temperature-dependent sex determination and one with genotypic sex determination

At present, most turtles, all crocodilians, and several lizards are known to have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Due to the dependence of sex determination on incubation temperature, the long-term survival of TSD species may be jeopardized by global climate changes. The current study was designed to assess the degree to which this concern is justified by examining nest-site selection in two species of Pattern II TSD geckos (Eublepharis macularius and Hemitheconyx caudicinctus) and comparing these preferences with those of a species with genotypic sex determination (GSD) (Coleonyx mitratus). Temperature preferences for nest sites were found to be both species-specific and female-specific. While H. caudicinctus females selected a mean nest-site temperature (32.4°) very close to the upper pivotal temperature (32°C) for the species, E. macularius females selected a mean nest-site temperature (28.7°C) well below this species' lower pivotal temperature (30.5°C). Thus, the resultant sex ratios are expected to differ between these two TSD species. Additionally, nest-site temperatures for the GSD species were significantly more variable (SE=+0.37) than were temperatures for either of the TSD species (E. macularius SE=±0.10; H. caudicinctus SE =+ 0.17), diereby further demonstrating temperature preferences within the TSD species.     

The adaptive significance of temperature-dependent sex determination: experimental tests with a short-lived lizard

Abstract Why is the sex of many reptiles determined by the temperatures that these animals experience during embryogenesis, rather than by their genes? The Charnov‐Bull model suggests that temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) can enhance maternal fitness relative to genotypic sex determination (GSD) if offspring traits affect fitness differently for sons versus daughters and nest temperatures either determine or predict those offspring traits. Although potential pathways for such effects have attracted much speculation, empirical tests largely have been precluded by logistical constraints (i.e., long life spans and late maturation of most TSD reptiles). We experimentally tested four differential fitness models within the Charnov‐Bull framework, using a short‐lived, early‐maturing Australian lizard (Amphibolurus muricatus) with TSD. Eggs from wild‐caught females were incubated at a range of thermal regimes, and the resultant hatchlings raised in large outdoor enclosures. We applied an aromatase inhibitor to half the eggs to override thermal effects on sex determination, thus decoupling sex and incubation temperature. Based on relationships between incubation temperatures, hatching dates, morphology, growth, and survival of hatchlings in their first season, we were able to reject three of the four differential fitness models. First, matching offspring sex to egg size was not plausible because the relationship between egg (offspring) size and fitness was similar in the two sexes. Second, sex differences in optimal incubation temperatures were not evident, because (1) although incubation temperature influenced offspring phenotypes and growth, it did so in similar ways in sons versus daughters, and (2) the relationship between phenotypic traits and fitness was similar in the two sexes, at least during preadult life. We were unable to reject a fourth model, in which TSD enhances offspring fitness by generating seasonal shifts in offspring sex ratio: that is, TSD allows overproduction of daughters (the sex likely to benefit most from early hatching) early in the nesting season. In keeping with this model, hatching early in the season massively enhanced body size at the beginning of the first winter, albeit with a significant decline in probability of survival. Thus, the timing of hatching is likely to influence reproductive success in this short‐lived, early maturing species; and this effect may well differ between the sexes.     

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature‐dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival

Temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.     

Seasonal sex ratios and the evolution of temperature-dependent sex determination in oviparous lizards

Although the adaptive significance of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) remains a puzzle, recent models implicate a seasonal bias in offspring sex production that translates into sex-specific fitness benefits later in life. Sex-specific emergence has been linked to fitness gains in some fish, birds and reptiles, but field data supporting the occurrence of a seasonal pattern of sex ratios in oviparous lizards are lacking. We tested the hypothesis that patterns of nest site selection and seasonal temperature changes combine to inhibit the materialization of sex-biased hatching times in a population of water dragons (Intellagama lesueurii). As predicted, a seasonal increase in air and nest temperatures resulted in a sex bias by nesting date; male-producing clutches were laid 17.8 days sooner than female-producing clutches, on average. However, the seasonal ramping of nest temperatures also caused shorter relative incubation periods in the later, all-female clutches. As a consequence of this developmental ‘catch-up’, the mean hatching date for male-producing nests preceded the mean hatching date for female-producing nests by only 7.2 days. We suggest that a contracted distribution of hatching dates compared to the distribution of oviposition dates represents a general pattern for oviparous reptiles in seasonal climates, which in TSD species may largely offset the temporal disparity in nesting dates between the sexes. Although data are needed for other TSD species, such minor age differences between male and female hatchlings may not translate into fitness differences later in life, an assumption of some models for the evolution and maintenance of TSD.     

SEX ALLOCATION BASED ON RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE CONDITION

Traditional models predict that organisms should allocate to sex based on their condition relative to the condition of their competitors, tracking shifts in mean condition in fluctuating environments, and maintaining an equilibrium sex ratio. In contrast, when individuals are constrained to define their condition absolutely, environmental fluctuations induce fluctuating sex ratios and the evolutionary loss of condition‐dependent sex allocation in short‐lived organisms. Here, we present a simulation model of temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) in fluctuating environments that specifically examines the importance of relativity in defining individual condition. When relativity in condition is allowed to evolve, short‐lived organisms evolve switchlike TSD reaction norms and define their condition relative to the annual temperature distribution, thus preventing biased cohort sex ratios in extreme years. Long‐lived organisms also evolve switchlike reaction norms, but define condition less relatively and experience biased cohort sex ratios. The predictions are supported by data from painted turtles, where TSD reaction norms exhibit pivotal temperatures of sex determination that partially track mean annual temperature. Examining relativity in amniotic vertebrates provides a conceptual framework for multifactorial sex determination and suggests new ways of exploring adaptive hypotheses of sex allocation by focusing on the importance of frequency‐dependent selection on sex.     

Ovotestes suggest cryptic genetic influence in a reptile model for temperature-dependent sex determination

Sex determination and differentiation in reptiles is complex. Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), genetic sex determination (GSD) and the interaction of both environmental and genetic cues (sex reversal) can drive the development of sexual phenotypes. The jacky dragon (Amphibolurus muricatus) is an attractive model species for the study of gene–environment interactions because it displays a form of Type II TSD, where female-biased sex ratios are observed at extreme incubation temperatures and approximately 50 : 50 sex ratios occur at intermediate temperatures. This response to temperature has been proposed to occur due to underlying sex determining loci, the influence of which is overridden at extreme temperatures. Thus, sex reversal at extreme temperatures is predicted to produce the female-biased sex ratios observed in A. muricatus. The occurrence of ovotestes during development is a cellular marker of temperature sex reversal in a closely related species Pogona vitticeps. Here, we present the first developmental data for A. muricatus, and show that ovotestes occur at frequencies consistent with a mode of sex determination that is intermediate between GSD and TSD. This is the first evidence suggestive of underlying unidentified sex determining loci in a species that has long been used as a model for TSD.     

Effective heritability of targets of sex-ratio selection under environmental sex determination

Selection is expected to maintain primary sex ratios at an evolutionary equilibrium. In organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), targets of sex-ratio selection include the thermal sensitivity of the sex-determining pathway (hereafter, sex determination threshold) and nest-site choice. However, offspring sex may be canalized for nests located in thermally extreme environments; thus, genetic variance for the sex determination threshold is not expressed and is invisible to direct selection. The concept of 'effective heritability' accounts for this dependence and provides a more realistic prediction of the expected evolutionary response to selection in the wild. Past estimates of effective heritability of the sex determination threshold, which were derived from laboratory data, suggested that the potential for the sex determination threshold to evolve in the wild was extremely low. We re-evaluated original estimates of this parameter by analysing field-collected measures of nest temperatures, vegetation cover and clutch sex ratios from nests in a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta). We coupled these data with measurements of broad-sense heritability of the sex determination threshold in C. picta, using an experiment that splits clutches of eggs between a constant temperature (i.e. typical laboratory incubation) and a daily fluctuating temperature (i.e. similar to natural nests) with the same mean. We found that (i) the effective heritability of the sex determination threshold appears to have been historically underestimated and the effective heritability of nest-site choice has been overestimated and (ii) significant family-by-incubation treatment interaction exists for sex for C. picta between constant- and fluctuating-temperature regimes. Our results suggest that the thermal sensitivity of the sex-determining pathway may play a larger, more complex role in the microevolution of TSD than traditionally thought.     

Spatio-temporal variation in the incubation duration and sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings: Implication for future management

Climate change poses a unique threat to species with temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), such as marine turtles, where increases in temperature can result in extreme sex ratio biases. Knowledge of the primary sex ratio of populations with TSD is key for providing a baseline to inform management strategies and to accurately predict how future climate changes may affect turtle populations. However, there is a lack of robust data on offspring sex ratio at appropriate temporal and spatial scales to inform management decisions. To address this, we estimate the primary sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings, Eretmochelys imbricata, from incubation duration of 5514 in situ nests from 10 nesting beaches from two regions in Brazil over the last 27 years. A strong female bias was estimated in all beaches, with 96% and 89% average female sex ratios produced in Bahia (BA) and Rio Grande do Norte (RN). Both inter-annual (BA, 88 to 99%; RN, 75 to 96% female) and inter-beach (BA, 92% to 97%; RN, 81% to 92% female) variability in mean offspring sex ratio was observed. These findings will guide management decisions in Brazil and provide further evidence of highly female-skew sex ratios in hawksbill turtles.     

Different optimal offspring sizes for sons versus daughters may favor the evolution of temperature-dependent sex determination in viviparous lizards

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) has evolved independently in at least two lineages of viviparous Australian scincid lizards, but its adaptive significance remains unclear. We studied a montane lizard species (Eulamprus heatwolei) with TSD. Our data suggest that mothers can modify the body sizes of their offspring by selecting specific thermal regimes during pregnancy (mothers with higher and more stable temperatures produced smaller offspring), but cannot influence sons versus daughters differentially in this way. A field mark-recapture study shows that optimal offspring size differs between the sexes: larger body size at birth enhanced the survival of sons but reduced the survival of daughters. Thus, a pregnant female can optimize the fitness of either her sons or her daughters (via yolk allocation and thermoregulation), but cannot simultaneously optimize both. One evolutionary solution to reduce this fitness cost is to modify the sex-determining mechanism so that a single litter consists entirely of either sons or daughters; TSD provides such a mechanism. Previous work has implicated a sex difference in optimal offspring size as a selective force for TSD in turtles. Hence, opposing fitness determinants of sons and daughters may have favored evolutionary transitions from genetic sex determination to TSD in both oviparous turtles and viviparous lizards.     

Sex determination and optimal development in the Moorish gecko,Tarentola mauritanica

Under temperature sex determination (TSD), sex is determined by temperature during embryonic development. Depending on ecological and physiological traits and plasticity, TSD species may face demographic collapse due to climate change. In this context, asymmetry in bilateral organisms can be used as a proxy for developmental instability and, therefore, deviations from optimal incubation conditions. Using Tarentola mauritanica gecko as a model, this study aimed first to confirm TSD, its pattern and pivotal temperature, and second to assess the local adaptation of TSD and variation of asymmetry patterns across four populations under different thermal regimes. Eggs were incubated at different temperatures, and hatchlings were sexed and measured. The number of lamellae was counted in adults and hatchlings. Results were compatible with a TSD pattern with males generated at low and females at high incubation temperatures. Estimated pivotal temperature coincided with the temperature producing lower embryonic mortality, evidencing selection towards balanced sex ratios. The temperature of oviposition was conservatively selected by gravid females. Asymmetry patterns found were likely related to nest temperature fluctuations. Overall, the rigidity of TSD may compromise reproductive success, and demographic stability in this species in case thermal nest choice becomes constrained by climate change.     

A novel hypothesis for the adaptive maintenance of environmental sex determination in a turtle

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is widespread in reptiles, yet its adaptive significance and mechanisms for its maintenance remain obscure and controversial. Comparative analyses identify an ancient origin of TSD in turtles, crocodiles and tuatara, suggesting that this trait should be advantageous in order to persist. Based on this assumption, researchers primarily, and with minimal success, have employed a model to examine sex-specific variation in hatchling phenotypes and fitness generated by different incubation conditions. The unwavering focus on different incubation conditions may be misplaced at least in the many turtle species in which hatchlings overwinter in the natal nest. If overwintering temperatures differentially affect fitness of male and female hatchlings, TSD might be maintained adaptively by enabling embryos to develop as the sex best suited to those overwintering conditions. We test this novel hypothesis using the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta), a species with TSD in which eggs hatch in late summer and hatchlings remain within nests until the following spring. We used a split-clutch design to expose field-incubated hatchlings to warm and cool overwintering (autumn–winter–spring) regimes in the laboratory and measured metabolic rates, energy use, body size and mortality of male and female hatchlings. While overall mortality rates were low, males exposed to warmer overwintering regimes had significantly higher metabolic rates and used more residual yolk than females, whereas the reverse occurred in the cool temperature regime. Hatchlings from mixed-sex nests exhibited similar sex-specific trends and, crucially, they were less energy efficient and grew less than same-sex hatchlings that originated from single-sex clutches. Such sex- and incubation-specific physiological adaptation to winter temperatures may enhance fitness and even extend the northern range of many species that overwinter terrestrially.     

Effects of gestation temperature on offspring sex and maternal reproduction in a viviparous lizard (Eremias multiocellata) living at high altitude

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is well studied in many species of reptiles, but little is known on how geographic distribution and altitude affect the sex ratio. In the present study, we focused on a population of a viviparous lizard with TSD (Eremias multiocellata) that lives at high altitudes (≈2900 m) in Tianzhu, Gansu province, China. Gestation temperature had a notable effect on the offspring sex ratio, gestation period, and the mother's body mass. The mothers produced female biased offspring at 25 °C but male biased offspring at 35 °C. All female lizards lost weight during pregnancy, and the least loss of the body mass was observed at 31 °C. The gestation period increased in a non-linear fashion as ambient temperature was reduced. Average litter size was elevated with an increase of gestation temperatures, reached a maximum at 31 °C, and then declined at 35 °C. Compared with a previous study on a Minqin population which lives at a lower altitude (≈1400 m) and warmer climate, the present study obtained a less skewed sex ratio of offspring in the Tianzhu population. Geographic variations also affected offspring morphology between the two populations; females collected from Tianzhu produced larger litters but with a smaller body weight of offspring. These differences may be caused by the adaptive response to the cool climatic and high-altitude environmental conditions.     

Reproducing lizards modify sex allocation in response to operational sex ratios

Sex-allocation theory suggests that selection may favour maternal skewing of offspring sex ratios if the fitness return from producing a son differs from that for producing a daughter. The operational sex ratio (OSR) may provide information about this potential fitness differential. Previous studies have reached conflicting conclusions about whether or not OSR influences sex allocation in viviparous lizards. Our experimental trials with oviparous lizards (Amphibolurus muricatus) showed that OSR influenced offspring sex ratios, but in a direction opposite to that predicted by theory: females kept in male-biased enclosures overproduced sons rather than daughters (i.e. overproduced the more abundant sex). This response may enhance fitness if local OSRs predict survival probabilities of offspring of each sex, rather than the intensity of sexual competition.     

Thermal fluctuation within nests and predicted sex ratio of Morelet’s Crocodile

Understanding the interplay between thermal variations and sex ratio in reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination is the first step for developing long-term conservation strategies. In case of crocodilians, the information is fragmentary and insufficient for establishing a general framework to consider how thermal fluctuation influence sex determination under natural conditions. The main goal of this study was to analyze thermal variation in nests of Crocodylus moreletii and to discuss the potential implications for predicting offspring sex ratio. The study was carried out at the Centro de Estudios Tecnológicos del Mar N° 2 and at the Sistemas Productivos Cocodrilo, Campeche, Mexico. Data was collected in the nesting season of Morelet’s Crocodiles during three consecutive seasons (2007-2009). Thermal fluctuations for multiple areas of the nest chamber were registered by data loggers. We calculate the constant temperature equivalent based on thermal profiles among nests to assess whether there are differences between the nest temperature and its equivalent to constant temperature. We observed that mean nest temperature was only different among nests, while daily thermal fluctuations vary depending on the depth position within the nest chamber, years and nests. The constant temperature equivalent was different among and within nests, but not among survey years. We observed differences between constant temperature equivalent and mean nest temperature both at the top and in the middle of the nest cavities, but were not significantly different at the bottom of nest cavities. Our results enable examine and discuss the relevance of daily thermal fluctuations to predict sex ratio of the Morelet’s Crocodile.