Are pollen fossils useful for calibrating relaxed molecular clock dating of phylogenies? A comparative study using Myrtaceae

The identification and application of reliable fossil calibrations represents a key component of many molecular studies of evolutionary timescales. In studies of plants, most paleontological calibrations are associated with macrofossils. However, the pollen record can also inform age calibrations if fossils matching extant pollen groups are found. Recent work has shown that pollen of the myrtle family, Myrtaceae, can be classified into a number of morphological groups that are synapomorphic with molecular groups. By assembling a data matrix of pollen morphological characters from extant and fossil Myrtaceae, we were able to measure the fit of 26 pollen fossils to a molecular phylogenetic tree using parsimony optimisation of characters. We identified eight Myrtaceidites fossils as appropriate for calibration based on the most parsimonious placements of these fossils on the tree. These fossils were used to inform age constraints in a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of a sequence alignment comprising two sequences from the chloroplast genome (matK and ndhF) and one nuclear locus (ITS), sampled from 106 taxa representing 80 genera. Three additional analyses were calibrated by placing pollen fossils using geographic and morphological information (eight calibrations), macrofossils (five calibrations), and macrofossils and pollen fossils in combination (12 calibrations). The addition of new fossil pollen calibrations led to older crown ages than have previously been found for tribes such as Eucalypteae and Myrteae. Estimates of rate variation among lineages were affected by the choice of calibrations, suggesting that the use of multiple calibrations can improve estimates of rate heterogeneity among lineages. This study illustrates the potential of including pollen-based calibrations in molecular studies of divergence times.     

Phylogeny of extant and fossil Juglandaceae inferred from the integration of molecular and morphological data sets

It is widely acknowledged that integrating fossils into data sets of extant taxa is imperative for proper placement of fossils, resolution of relationships, and a better understanding of character evolution. The importance of this process has been further magnified because of the crucial role of fossils in dating divergence times. Outstanding issues remain, including appropriate methods to place fossils in phylogenetic trees, the importance of molecules versus morphology in these analyses, as well as the impact of potentially large amounts of missing data for fossil taxa. In this study we used the angiosperm clade Juglandaceae as a model for investigating methods of integrating fossils into a phylogenetic framework of extant taxa. The clade has a rich fossil record relative to low extant diversity, as well as a robust molecular phylogeny and morphological database for extant taxa. After combining fossil organ genera into composite and terminal taxa, our objectives were to (1) compare multiple methods for the integration of the fossils and extant taxa (including total evidence, molecular scaffolds, and molecular matrix representation with parsimony [MRP]); (2) explore the impact of missing data (incomplete taxa and characters) and the evidence for placing fossils on the topology; (3) simulate the phylogenetic effect of missing data by creating "artificial fossils"; and (4) place fossils and compare the impact of single and multiple fossil constraints in estimating the age of clades. Despite large and variable amounts of missing data, each of the methods provided reasonable placement of both fossils and simulated "artificial fossils" in the phylogeny previously inferred only from extant taxa. Our results clearly show that the amount of missing data in any given taxon is not by itself an operational guideline for excluding fossils from analysis. Three fossil taxa (Cruciptera simsonii, Paleoplatycarya wingii, and Platycarya americana) were placed within crown clades containing living taxa for which relationships previously had been suggested based on morphology, whereas Polyptera manningii, a mosaic taxon with equivocal affinities, was placed firmly as sister to two modern crown clades. The position of Paleooreomunnea stoneana was ambiguous with total evidence but conclusive with DNA scaffolds and MRP. There was less disturbance of relationships among extant taxa using a total evidence approach, and the DNA scaffold approach did not provide improved resolution or internal support for clades compared to total evidence, whereas weighted MRP retained comparable levels of support but lost crown clade resolution. Multiple internal minimum age constraints generally provided reasonable age estimates, but the use of single constraints provided by extinct genera tended to underestimate clade ages.     

Fossil calibrations and molecular divergence time estimates in centrarchid fishes (Teleostei: Centrarchidae)

Molecular clock methods allow biologists to estimate divergence times, which in turn play an important role in comparative studies of many evolutionary processes. It is well known that molecular age estimates can be biased by heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution, but less attention has been paid to the issue of potentially erroneous fossil calibrations. In this study we estimate the timing of diversification in Centrarchidae, an endemic major lineage of the diverse North American freshwater fish fauna, through a new approach to fossil calibration and molecular evolutionary model selection. Given a completely resolved multi-gene molecular phylogeny and a set of multiple fossil-inferred age estimates, we tested for potentially erroneous fossil calibrations using a recently developed fossil cross-validation. We also used fossil information to guide the selection of the optimal molecular evolutionary model with a new fossil jackknife method in a fossil-based model cross-validation. The centrarchid phylogeny resulted from a mixed-model Bayesian strategy that included 14 separate data partitions sampled from three mtDNA and four nuclear genes. Ten of the 31 interspecific nodes in the centrarchid phylogeny were assigned a minimal age estimate from the centrarchid fossil record. Our analyses identified four fossil dates that were inconsistent with the other fossils, and we removed them from the molecular dating analysis. Using fossil-based model cross-validation to determine the optimal smoothing value in penalized likelihood analysis, and six mutually consistent fossil calibrations, the age of the most recent common ancestor of Centrarchidae was 33.59 million years ago (mya). Penalized likelihood analyses of individual data partitions all converged on a very similar age estimate for this node, indicating that rate heterogeneity among data partitions is not confounding our analyses. These results place the origin of the centrarchid radiation at a time of major faunal turnover as the fossil record indicates that the most diverse lineages of the North American freshwater fish fauna originated at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, approximately 34 mya. This time coincided with major global climate change from warm to cool temperatures and a signature of elevated lineage extinction and origination in the fossil record across the tree of life. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of fossil cross-validation to critically assess individual fossil calibration points, providing the ability to discriminate between consistent and inconsistent fossil age estimates that are used for calibrating molecular phylogenies.     

Error in Estimation of Rate and Time Inferred from the Early Amniote Fossil Record and Avian Molecular Clocks

The best reconstructions of the history of life will use both molecular time estimates and fossil data. Errors in molecular rate estimation typically are unaccounted for and no attempts have been made to quantify this uncertainty comprehensively. Here, focus is primarily on fossil calibration error because this error is least well understood and nearly universally disregarded. Our quantification of errors in the synapsid–diapsid calibration illustrates that although some error can derive from geological dating of sedimentary rocks, the absence of good stem fossils makes phylogenetic error the most critical. We therefore propose the use of calibration ages that are based on the first undisputed synapsid and diapsid. This approach yields minimum age estimates and standard errors of 306.1±8.5 MYR for the divergence leading to birds and mammals. Because this upper bound overlaps with the recent use of 310 MYR, we do not support the notion that several metazoan divergence times are significantly overestimated because of serious miscalibration (sensu Lee 1999). However, the propagation of relevant errors reduces the statistical significance of the pre-K–T boundary diversification of many bird lineages despite retaining similar point time estimates. Our results demand renewed investigation into suitable loci and fossil calibrations for constructing evolutionary timescales.[Reviewing Editor: Martin Kreitman]     

The Phylogenetic Affinities of Nothofagus (Nothofagaceae) Leaf Fossils based on Combined Molecular and Morphological Data

The phylogenetic placements of leaf fossils of Nothofagus (Nothofagaceae) were determined using parsimony analyses of molecular and morphological data for extant species combined with morphological data for fossils. Placement was possible for only seven of the 30 or so described fossil species of Nothofagus because only these had sufficiently good preservation of both cuticular and leaf architectural characters. In combined analyses of morphology and molecular data, leaf cuticular characters showed little homoplasy. In contrast, many architectural characters, including some leaf margin and venation characters, showed high homoplasy, making it difficult or impossible to accurately determine the phylogenetic affinities of impression fossils of this genus.     

The impact of fossils and taxon sampling on ancient molecular dating analyses

The number and complexity of molecular dating studies has increased over the past decade. Along with a broadening acceptance of their utility has come significant controversy over the methods and models that are appropriate, as well as the accuracy of the estimates yielded by molecular clock analyses. Radically different age estimates have been published for the same divergences from analyses of different datasets with different fossil constraints obtained with different methods, and the underlying explanation for these differences is often unclear. Here we utilize two previously published datasets to examine the effect of fossil calibrations and taxon sampling on the age estimates for two deep eukaryote divergences in an attempt to discern the relative impact of these factors. Penalized likelihood, non-parametric rate smoothing, and Bayesian methods were utilized to generate age estimates for the origin of the Metazoa from a 7-gene dataset and for the divergence of Eukaryotes from a 129-gene dataset. From these analyses, it is clear that the fossil calibrations chosen and the method for applying constraints to these nodes have a large impact on age estimates, while the degree of taxon sampling within a dataset is less important in terms of the resulting age estimates. Concerns and recommendations for addressing these two factors when initiating a dating analysis are discussed.     

Calibration choice, rate smoothing, and the pattern of tetrapod diversification according to the long nuclear gene RAG-1

A phylogeny of tetrapods is inferred from nearly complete sequences of the nuclear RAG-1 gene sampled across 88 taxa encompassing all major clades, analyzed via parsimony and Bayesian methods. The phylogeny provides support for Lissamphibia, Theria, Lepidosauria, a turtle-archosaur clade, as well as most traditionally accepted groupings. This tree allows simultaneous molecular clock dating for all tetrapod groups using a set of well-corroborated calibrations. Relaxed clock (PLRS) methods, using the amniote = 315 Mya (million years ago) calibration or a set of consistent calibrations, recovers reasonable divergence dates for most groups. However, the analysis systematically underestimates divergence dates within archosaurs. The bird-crocodile split, robustly documented in the fossil record as being around approximately 245 Mya, is estimated at only approximately 190 Mya, and dates for other divergences within archosaurs are similarly underestimated. Archosaurs, and particulary turtles have slow apparent rates possibly confounding rate modeling, and inclusion of calibrations within archosaurs (despite their high deviances) not only improves divergence estimates within archosaurs, but also across other groups. Notably, the monotreme-therian split ( approximately 210 Mya) matches the fossil record; the squamate radiation ( approximately 190 Mya) is younger than suggested by some recent molecular studies and inconsistent with identification of approximately 220 and approximately 165 Myo (million-year-old) fossils as acrodont iguanians and approximately 95 Myo fossils colubroid snakes; the bird-lizard (reptile) split is considerably older than fossil estimates (< or = 285 Mya); and Sphenodon is a remarkable phylogenetic relic, being the sole survivor of a lineage more than a quarter of a billion years old. Comparison with other molecular clock studies of tetrapod divergences suggests that the common practice of enforcing most calibrations as minima, with a single liberal maximal constraint, will systematically overestimate divergence dates. Similarly, saturation of mitochondrial DNA sequences, and the resultant greater compression of basal branches means that using only external deep calibrations will also lead to inflated age estimates within the focal ingroup.     

Evaluating fossil calibrations for dating phylogenies in light of rates of molecular evolution: a comparison of three approaches

Evolutionary and biogeographic studies increasingly rely on calibrated molecular clocks to date key events. Although there has been significant recent progress in development of the techniques used for molecular dating, many issues remain. In particular, controversies abound over the appropriate use and placement of fossils for calibrating molecular clocks. Several methods have been proposed for evaluating candidate fossils; however, few studies have compared the results obtained by different approaches. Moreover, no previous study has incorporated the effects of nucleotide saturation from different data types in the evaluation of candidate fossils. In order to address these issues, we compared three approaches for evaluating fossil calibrations: the single-fossil cross-validation method of Near, Meylan, and Shaffer (2005. Assessing concordance of fossil calibration points in molecular clock studies: an example using turtles. Am. Nat. 165:137-146), the empirical fossil coverage method of Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibration points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742), and the Bayesian multicalibration method of Sanders and Lee (2007. Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds. Biol. Lett. 3:275-279) and explicitly incorporate the effects of data type (nuclear vs. mitochondrial DNA) for identifying the most reliable or congruent fossil calibrations. We used advanced (Caenophidian) snakes as a case study; however, our results are applicable to any taxonomic group with multiple candidate fossils, provided appropriate taxon sampling and sufficient molecular sequence data are available. We found that data type strongly influenced which fossil calibrations were identified as outliers, regardless of which method was used. Despite the use of complex partitioned models of sequence evolution and multiple calibrations throughout the tree, saturation severely compressed basal branch lengths obtained from mitochondrial DNA compared with nuclear DNA. The effects of mitochondrial saturation were not ameliorated by analyzing a combined nuclear and mitochondrial data set. Although removing the third codon positions from the mitochondrial coding regions did not ameliorate saturation effects in the single-fossil cross-validations, it did in the Bayesian multicalibration analyses. Saturation significantly influenced the fossils that were selected as most reliable for all three methods evaluated. Our findings highlight the need to critically evaluate the fossils selected by data with different rates of nucleotide substitution and how data with different evolutionary rates affect the results of each method for evaluating fossils. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the advantages of using multiple independent fossil calibrations significantly outweigh any disadvantages.     

Paleontological evidence to date the tree of life

The role of fossils in dating the tree of life has been misunderstood. Fossils can provide good "minimum" age estimates for branches in the tree, but "maximum" constraints on those ages are poorer. Current debates about which are the "best" fossil dates for calibration move to consideration of the most appropriate constraints on the ages of tree nodes. Because fossil-based dates are constraints, and because molecular evolution is not perfectly clock-like, analysts should use more rather than fewer dates, but there has to be a balance between many genes and few dates versus many dates and few genes. We provide "hard" minimum and "soft" maximum age constraints for 30 divergences among key genome model organisms; these should contribute to better understanding of the dating of the animal tree of life.     

Integrating fossil preservation biases in the selection of calibrations for molecular divergence time estimation

The selection of fossil data to use as calibration age priors in molecular divergence time estimates inherently links neontological methods with paleontological theory. However, few neontological studies have taken into account the possibility of a taphonomic bias in the fossil record when developing approaches to fossil calibration selection. The Sppil-Rongis effect may bias the first appearance of a lineage toward the recent causing most objective calibration selection approaches to erroneously exclude appropriate calibrations or to incorporate multiple calibrations that are too young to accurately represent the divergence times of target lineages. Using turtles as a case study, we develop a Bayesian extension to the fossil selection approach developed by Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibrations points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742) that takes into account this taphonomic bias. Our method has the advantage of identifying calibrations that may bias age estimates to be too recent while incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic parameter estimates such as tree topology and branch lengths. Additionally, this method is easily adapted to assess the consistency of potential calibrations to any one calibration in the candidate pool.     

Tectonic blocks and molecular clocks

Evolutionary timescales have mainly used fossils for calibrating molecular clocks, though fossils only really provide minimum clade age constraints. In their place, phylogenetic trees can be calibrated by precisely dated geological events that have shaped biogeography. However, tectonic episodes are protracted, their role in vicariance is rarely justified, the biogeography of living clades and their antecedents may differ, and the impact of such events is contingent on ecology. Biogeographic calibrations are no panacea for the shortcomings of fossil calibrations, but their associated uncertainties can be accommodated. We provide examples of how biogeographic calibrations based on geological data can be established for the fragmentation of the Pangaean supercontinent: (i) for the uplift of the Isthmus of Panama, (ii) the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana, and (iii) for the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. Biogeographic and fossil calibrations are complementary, not competing, approaches to constraining molecular clock analyses, providing alternative constraints on the age of clades that are vital to avoiding circularity in investigating the role of biogeographic mechanisms in shaping modern biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’.     

Dated Phylogenies of the Sister Genera Macaranga and Mallotus (Euphorbiaceae): Congruence in Historical Biogeographic Patterns?

Molecular phylogenies and estimates of divergence times within the sister genera Macaranga and Mallotus were estimated using Bayesian relaxed clock analyses of two generic data sets, one per genus. Both data sets were based on different molecular markers and largely different samples. Per genus three calibration points were utilised. The basal calibration point (crown node of all taxa used) was taken from literature and used for both taxa. The other three calibrations were based on fossils of which two were used per genus. We compared patterns of dispersal and diversification in Macaranga and Mallotus using ancestral area reconstruction in RASP (S-DIVA option) and contrasted our results with biogeographical and geological records to assess accuracy of inferred age estimates. A check of the fossil calibration point showed that the Japanese fossil, used for dating the divergence of Mallotus, probably had to be attached to a lower node, the stem node of all pioneer species, but even then the divergence time was still younger than the estimated age of the fossil. The African (only used in the Macaranga data set) and New Zealand fossils (used for both genera) seemed reliably placed. Our results are in line with existing geological data and the presence of stepping stones that provided dispersal pathways from Borneo to New Guinea-Australia, from Borneo to mainland Asia and additionally at least once to Africa and Madagascar via land and back to India via Indian Ocean island chains. The two genera show congruence in dispersal patterns, which corroborate divergence time estimates, although the overall mode and tempo of dispersal and diversification differ significantly as shown by distribution patterns of extant species.     

Divergence time estimation using fossils as terminal taxa and the origins of Lissamphibia

Were molecular data available for extinct taxa, questions regarding the origins of many groups could be settled in short order. As this is not the case, various strategies have been proposed to combine paleontological and neontological data sets. The use of fossil dates as node age calibrations for divergence time estimation from molecular phylogenies is commonplace. In addition, simulations suggest that the addition of morphological data from extinct taxa may improve phylogenetic estimation when combined with molecular data for extant species, and some studies have merged morphological and molecular data to estimate combined evidence phylogenies containing both extinct and extant taxa. However, few, if any, studies have attempted to estimate divergence times using phylogenies containing both fossil and living taxa sampled for both molecular and morphological data. Here, I infer both the phylogeny and the time of origin for Lissamphibia and a number of stem tetrapods using Bayesian methods based on a data set containing morphological data for extinct taxa, molecular data for extant taxa, and molecular and morphological data for a subset of extant taxa. The results suggest that Lissamphibia is monophyletic, nested within Lepospondyli, and originated in the late Carboniferous at the earliest. This research illustrates potential pitfalls for the use of fossils as post hoc age constraints on internal nodes and highlights the importance of explicit phylogenetic analysis of extinct taxa. These results suggest that the application of fossils as minima or maxima on molecular phylogenies should be supplemented or supplanted by combined evidence analyses whenever possible.     

Calibration age and quartet divergence date estimation

The date of a single divergence point--between living alligators and crocodiles--was estimated with quartet dating using calibrations of widely divergent ages. For five mitochondrial sequence datasets, there is a clear relationship between calibration age and quartet estimate--quartets based on two relatively recent calibrations support younger divergence estimates than do quartets based on two older calibrations. Some of the estimates supported by young quartets are impossibly young and exclude the first appearance of the group in the fossil record as too old. The older estimates--those based on two relatively old calibrations--may be overestimates, and those based on one old and one recent calibration support divergence estimates very close to fossil data. This suggests that quartet dating methods may be most effective when calibrations are applied from different parts of a clade's history.     

Phylogenetic relationships of the Cretaceous frog Beelzebufo from Madagascar and the placement of fossil constraints based on temporal and phylogenetic evidence

The placement of fossil calibrations is ideally based on the phylogenetic analysis of extinct taxa. Another source of information is the temporal variance for a given clade implied by a particular constraint when combined with other, well-supported calibrations. For example, the frog Beelzebufo ampinga from the Cretaceous of Madagascar has been hypothesized to be a crown-group member of the New World subfamily Ceratophryinae, which would support a Late Cretaceous connection with South America. However, phylogenetic analyses and molecular divergence time estimates based on other fossils do not support this placement. We derive a metric, Δt, to quantify temporal divergence among chronograms and find that errors resulting from mis-specified calibrations are localized when additional nodes throughout the tree are properly calibrated. The use of temporal information from molecular data can further assist in testing phylogenetic hypotheses regarding the placement of extinct taxa.     

Molecular phylogenetic dating of asterid flowering plants shows early Cretaceous diversification

We present a phylogenetic dating of asterids, based on a 111-taxon tree representing all major groups and orders and 83 of the 102 families of asterids, with an underlying data set comprising six chloroplast DNA markers totaling 9914 positions. Phylogenetic dating was done with semiparametric rate smoothing by penalized likelihood. Confidence intervals were calculated by bootstrapping. Six reference fossils were used for calibration. To explore the effects of various sources of error, we repeated the analyses with alternative dating methods (nonparametric rate smoothing and the Langley-Fitch clock-based method), alternative tree topologies, reduced taxon sampling (22 of the 111 taxa deleted), partitioning the data into three genes and three noncoding regions, and calibrating with single reference fossils. The analyses with alternative topologies, reduced taxon sampling, and coding versus noncoding sequences all yielded small or in some cases no deviations. The choice of method influenced the age estimates of a few nodes considerably. Calibration with reference fossils is a critical issue, and use of single reference fossils yielded different results depending on the fossil. The bootstrap confidence intervals were generally small. Our results show that asterids and their major subgroups euasterids, campanulids, and lamiids diversified during the Early Cretaceous. Cornales, Ericales, and Aquifoliales also have crown node ages from the Early Cretaceous. Dipsacales and Solanales are from the Mid-Cretaceous, the other orders of core campanulids and core lamiids from the Late Cretaceous. The considerable diversity exhibited by asterids almost from their first appearance in the fossil record also supports an origin and first phase of diversification in the Early Cretaceous.     

Calibration uncertainty in molecular dating analyses: there is no substitute for the prior evaluation of time priors

Calibration is the rate-determining step in every molecular clock analysis and, hence, considerable effort has been expended in the development of approaches to distinguish good from bad calibrations. These can be categorized into a priori evaluation of the intrinsic fossil evidence, and a posteriori evaluation of congruence through cross-validation. We contrasted these competing approaches and explored the impact of different interpretations of the fossil evidence upon Bayesian divergence time estimation. The results demonstrate that a posteriori approaches can lead to the selection of erroneous calibrations. Bayesian posterior estimates are also shown to be extremely sensitive to the probabilistic interpretation of temporal constraints. Furthermore, the effective time priors implemented within an analysis differ for individual calibrations when employed alone and in differing combination with others. This compromises the implicit assumption of all calibration consistency methods, that the impact of an individual calibration is the same when used alone or in unison with others. Thus, the most effective means of establishing the quality of fossil-based calibrations is through a priori evaluation of the intrinsic palaeontological, stratigraphic, geochronological and phylogenetic data. However, effort expended in establishing calibrations will not be rewarded unless they are implemented faithfully in divergence time analyses.     

Relaxed molecular clocks for dating historical plant dispersal events

Age estimation from molecular sequences has emerged as a powerful tool for inferring when a plant lineage arrived in a particular area. Knowing the tenure of lineages within a region is key to understanding the evolution of traits, the evolution of biotic interactions, and the evolution of floras. New analytical methods model change in substitution rates along individual branches of a phylogenetic tree by combining molecular data with time constraints, usually from fossils. These "relaxed clock" approaches can be applied to several gene regions that need not all have the same substitution rates, and they can also incorporate multiple simultaneous fossil calibrations. Since 1995, at least 100 plant biogeographic studies have used molecular-clock dating, and about a fifth has used relaxed clocks. Many of these report evidence of long-distance dispersal. Meta-analyses of studies from the same geographic region can identify directional biases because of prevailing wind or water currents and the relative position and size of landmasses.     

Bayesian estimation of species divergence times under a molecular clock using multiple fossil calibrations with soft bounds

We implement a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating species divergence times that uses heterogeneous data from multiple gene loci and accommodates multiple fossil calibration nodes. A birth-death process with species sampling is used to specify a prior for divergence times, which allows easy assessment of the effects of that prior on posterior time estimates. We propose a new approach for specifying calibration points on the phylogeny, which allows the use of arbitrary and flexible statistical distributions to describe uncertainties in fossil dates. In particular, we use soft bounds, so that the probability that the true divergence time is outside the bounds is small but nonzero. A strict molecular clock is assumed in the current implementation, although this assumption may be relaxed. We apply our new algorithm to two data sets concerning divergences of several primate species, to examine the effects of the substitution model and of the prior for divergence times on Bayesian time estimation. We also conduct computer simulation to examine the differences between soft and hard bounds. We demonstrate that divergence time estimation is intrinsically hampered by uncertainties in fossil calibrations, and the error in Bayesian time estimates will not go to zero with increased amounts of sequence data. Our analyses of both real and simulated data demonstrate potentially large differences between divergence time estimates obtained using soft versus hard bounds and a general superiority of soft bounds. Our main findings are as follows. (1) When the fossils are consistent with each other and with the molecular data, and the posterior time estimates are well within the prior bounds, soft and hard bounds produce similar results. (2) When the fossils are in conflict with each other or with the molecules, soft and hard bounds behave very differently; soft bounds allow sequence data to correct poor calibrations, while poor hard bounds are impossible to overcome by any amount of data. (3) Soft bounds eliminate the need for "safe" but unrealistically high upper bounds, which may bias posterior time estimates. (4) Soft bounds allow more reliable assessment of estimation errors, while hard bounds generate misleadingly high precisions when fossils and molecules are in conflict.