Sex-specific meiotic drive and selection at an imprinted locus

We present a one-locus model that breaks two symmetries of Mendelian genetics. Whereas symmetry of transmission is breached by allowing sex-specific segregation distortion, symmetry of expression is breached by allowing genomic imprinting. Simple conditions for the existence of at least one polymorphic stable equilibrium are provided. In general, population mean fitness is not maximized at polymorphic equilibria. However, mean fitness at a polymorphic equilibrium with segregation distortion may be higher than mean fitness at the corresponding equilibrium with Mendelian segregation if one (or both) of the heterozygote classes has higher fitness than both homozygote classes. In this case, mean fitness is maximized by complete, but opposite, drive in the two sexes. We undertook an extensive numerical analysis of the parameter space, finding, for the first time in this class of models, parameter sets yielding two stable polymorphic equilibria. Multiple equilibria exist both with and without genomic imprinting, although they occurred in a greater proportion of parameter sets with genomic imprinting.     

Biological Experimental Observations of an Unnoticed Chaos as Simulated by the Hindmarsh-Rose Model

An unnoticed chaotic firing pattern, lying between period-1 and period-2 firing patterns, has received little attention over the past 20 years since it was first simulated in the Hindmarsh-Rose (HR) model. In the present study, the rat sciatic nerve model of chronic constriction injury (CCI) was used as an experimental neural pacemaker to investigate the transition regularities of spontaneous firing patterns. Chaotic firing lying between period-1 and period-2 firings was observed located in four bifurcation scenarios in different, isolated neural pacemakers. These bifurcation scenarios were induced by decreasing extracellular calcium concentrations. The behaviors after period-2 firing pattern in the four scenarios were period-doubling bifurcation not to chaos, period-doubling bifurcation to chaos, period-adding sequences with chaotic firings, and period-adding sequences with stochastic firings. The deterministic structure of the chaotic firing pattern was identified by the first return map of interspike intervals and a short-term prediction using nonlinear prediction. The experimental observations closely match those simulated in a two-dimensional parameter space using the HR model, providing strong evidences of the existence of chaotic firing lying between period-1 and period-2 firing patterns in the actual nervous system. The results also present relationships in the parameter space between this chaotic firing and other firing patterns, such as the chaotic firings that appear after period-2 firing pattern located within the well-known comb-shaped region, periodic firing patterns and stochastic firing patterns, as predicted by the HR model. We hope that this study can focus attention on and help to further the understanding of the unnoticed chaotic neural firing pattern.     

Strategy for control of complex low-dimensional dynamics in cardiac tissue

 Heart rate-dependent alterations in the duration of the electrically active state of cardiac cells, the action potential, are an important determinant of lethal heart rhythm disorders. The relationship between action potential duration and heart rate can be modelled as a nonlinear one-dimensional map. Iteration of the map over a range of physiologically relevant heart rates produces complex changes in action potential duration, including period doubling bifurcations, chaos and period doubling reversals. We present a computer algorithm that ensures, over the same range of heart rates, uniform state variable values (action potential durations) by application of small perturbing stimuli at appropriate intervals. The algorithm succeeds, even though the only parameter in the system (the heart rate) is immutable. Control of the dynamics is achieved by exploiting the inexcitability of the cardiac cells immediately after stimulation. This algorithm may have applications for the prevention of cardiac rhythm disturbances. Received 24 April 1995; received in revised form 7 August 1995     

Exciting chaos with noise: unexpected dynamics in epidemic outbreaks

 In this paper, we identify a mechanism for chaos in the presence of noise. In a study of the SEIR model, which predicts epidemic outbreaks in childhood diseases, we show how chaotic dynamics can be attained by adding stochastic perturbations at parameters where chaos does not exist apriori. Data recordings of epidemics in childhood diseases are still argued as deterministic chaos. There also exists noise due to uncertainties in the contact parameters between those who are susceptible and those who are infected, as well as random fluctuations in the population. Although chaos has been found in deterministic models, it only occurs in parameter regions that require a very large population base or other large seasonal forcing. Our work identifies the mechanism whereby chaos can be induced by noise for realistic parameter regions of the deterministic model where it does not naturally occur. Received: 13 October 2000 / Revised version: 15 May 2001 / Published online: 7 December 2001     

Coexistence of Multiple Periodic and Chaotic Regimes in Biochemical Oscillations with Phase Shifts

The numerical study of a glycolytic model formed by a system of three delay differential equations reveals a multiplicity of stable coexisting states: birhythmicity, trirhythmicity, hard excitation and quasiperiodic with chaotic regimes. For different initial functions in the phase space one may observe the coexistence of two different quasiperiodic motions, the existence of a stable steady state with a stable torus, and the existence of a strange attractor with different stable regimes (chaos with torus, chaos with bursting motion, and chaos with different periodic regimes). For a single range of the control parameter values our system may exhibit different bifurcation diagrams: in one case a Feigenbaum route to chaos coexists with a finite number of successive periodic bifurcations, in other conditions it is possible to observe the coexistence of two quasiperiodicity routes to chaos. These studies were obtained both at constant input flux and under forcing conditions.     

Does “supersaturated coexistence” resolve the “paradox of the plankton”?

In contradiction with field observations, theory predicts that the number of coexisting plankton species at equilibrium cannot exceed the number of limiting resources, which is called the "paradox of the plankton". Recently, Huisman & Weissing (1999 , 2000 ) showed, in a model study, that the number of coexisting species may exceed the number of limiting resources when internal system feedback induces oscillations or chaos. In this paper, we use the term "supersaturated coexistence" for this phenomenon. On the basis of these findings, they claimed that the paradox of the plankton is solved. We investigated the prerequisites for supersaturated coexistence in the same model. Our results indicate that supersaturated coexistence is a rare phenomenon in parameter space, requires a very precise parameterization of the community members and is sensitive to the introduction of new species and the removal of the present species. This raises the question of whether supersaturated coexistence is likely to occur in nature. We conclude that the claim by Huisman & Weissing (1999 , 2000 ) is premature.     

Bayesian information criterion for censored survival models

We investigate the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for variable selection in models for censored survival data. Kass and Wasserman (1995, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 928-934) showed that BIC provides a close approximation to the Bayes factor when a unit-information prior on the parameter space is used. We propose a revision of the penalty term in BIC so that it is defined in terms of the number of uncensored events instead of the number of observations. For a simple censored data model, this revision results in a better approximation to the exact Bayes factor based on a conjugate unit-information prior. In the Cox proportional hazards regression model, we propose defining BIC in terms of the maximized partial likelihood. Using the number of deaths rather than the number of individuals in the BIC penalty term corresponds to a more realistic prior on the parameter space and is shown to improve predictive performance for assessing stroke risk in the Cardiovascular Health Study.     

Diversity of temporal self-organized behaviors in a biochemical system.

The numerical study of a glycolytic model formed by a system of three delay-differential equations revealed a notable richness of temporal structures which included the three main routes to chaos, as well as a multiplicity of stable coexisting states. The Feigenbaum, intermitency and quasiperiodicity routes to chaos can emerge in the biochemical oscillator. Moreover, different types of birhythmicity, trirhythmicity and hard excitation emerge in the phase space. For a single range of the control parameter it can be observed the coexistence of two quasiperiodicity routes to chaos, the coexistence of a stable steady state with a stable torus, and the coexistence of a strange attractor with different stable regimes such as chaos with different periodic regimes, chaos with bursting behavior, and chaos with torus. In most of the numerical studies, the biochemical oscillator has been considered under periodic input flux being the mean input flux rate 6 mM/h. On the other hand, several investigators have observed quasiperiodic time patterns and chaotic oscillations by monitoring the fluorescence of NADH in glycolyzing yeast under sinusoidal glucose input flux. Our numerical results match well with these experimental studies.     

Emergence and loss of assortative mating in sympatric speciation

We have studied an agent model which presents the emergence of sexual barriers through the onset of assortative mating, a condition that might lead to sympatric speciation. In the model, individuals are characterized by two traits, each determined by a single locus A or B. Heterozygotes on A are penalized by introducing an adaptive difference from homozygotes. Two niches are available. Each A homozygote is adapted to one of the niches. The second trait, called the marker trait has no bearing on the fitness. The model includes mating preferences, which are inherited from the mother and subject to random variations. A parameter controlling recombination probabilities of the two loci is also introduced. We study the phase diagram by means of simulations, in the space of parameters (adaptive difference, carrying capacity, recombination probability). Three phases are found, characterized by (i) assortative mating, (ii) extinction of one of the A alleles and (iii) Hardy-Weinberg like equilibrium. We also make perturbations of these phases to see how robust they are. Assortative mating can be gained or lost with changes that present hysteresis loops, showing the resulting equilibrium to have partial memory of the initial state and that the process of going from a polymorphic panmictic phase to a phase where assortative mating acts as sexual barrier can be described as a first-order transition.     

Overcompensatory recruitment and generation delay in discrete age-structured population models

 The effect of overcompensatory recruitment and the combined effect of overcompensatory recruitment and generation delay in discrete nonlinear age-structured population models is studied. Considering overcompensatory recruitment alone, we present formal proofs of the supercritical nature of bifurcations (both flip and Hopf) as well as an extensive analysis of dynamics in unstable parameter regions. One important finding here is that in case of small and moderate year to year survival probabilities there are large regions in parameter space where the qualitative behaviour found in a general n+1 dimensional model is retained already in a one-dimensional model. Another result is that the dynamics at or near the boundary of parameter space may be very complicated. Generally, generation delay is found to act as a destabilizing effect but its effect on dynamics is by no means unique. The most profound effect occurs in the n-generation delay cases. In these cases there is no stable equilibrium X ^* at all, but whenever X ^* small, a stable cycle of period n+1 where the periodic points in the cycle are on a very special form. In other cases generation delay does not alter the dynamics in any substantial way. Received 25 April 1995; received in revised form 21 November 1995     

Long food chains are in general chaotic

The question whether chaos exists in nature is much debated. In this paper we prove that chaotic parameter regions exist generically in food chains of length greater than three. While nonchaotic dynamics is also possible, the presence of chaotic parameter regions indicates that chaotic dynamics is likely. We show that the chaotic regions survive even at high exponents of closure. Our results have been obtained using a general food chain model that describes a large class of different food chains. The existence of chaos in models of such generality can be deduced from the presence of certain bifurcations of higher codimension.     

Did we miss some evidence of chaos in laboratory insect populations?

The collection and documentation of the experimental evidence of chaos in biological populations have always been elusive. We were puzzled by the observation that the most frequently computed demographic parameter for laboratory insect populations, the population intrinsic rate of increase (r _m), seems too small to induce chaotic dynamics. For example, when it is directly utilized as an approximation to the parameter (a) of the one-parameter discrete logistic model, the parameter seems well out of the chaotic range. In a recent reanalysis of our early laboratory demographic data of 1800 Russian wheat aphids (RWA), we discovered that a proper measure unit conversion should be performed to make the link between r _m and the discrete logistic model. We think that this conversion issue may have been ignored historically in biological literature since we are not aware of any uses of the r _m in the discussion of chaos. It should be noted that r _m is different from the r in discrete logistic model (e.g., May in Nature 261:459–467, 1976). Since extensive demographic data purported to estimate r _m have been accumulated in literature on population growth, the finding revealed with our RWA experiment data can easily be verified with the published data in literature. We near-arbitrarily surveyed 10 studies (containing 37 datasets of r _m) published in the literature and archived in JSTOR or BioOne databases to test the conversion, and the results confirmed our finding. The finding should significantly expand the evidence base of chaos in laboratory populations of insects and possibly microorganisms, too.     

Finding complex oscillatory phenomena in biochemical systems. An empirical approach

Starting with a model for a product-activated enzymatic reaction proposed for glycolytic oscillations, we show how more complex oscillatory phenomena may develop when the basic model is modified by addition of product recycling into substrate or by coupling in parallel or in series two autocatalytic enzyme reactions. Among the new modes of behavior are the coexistence between two stable types of oscillations (birhythmicity), bursting, and aperiodic oscillations (chaos). On the basis of these results, we outline an empirical method for finding complex oscillatory phenomena in autonomous biochemical systems, not subjected to forcing by a periodic input. This procedure relies on finding in parameter space two domains of instability of the steady state and bringing them close to each other until they merge. Complex phenomena occur in or near the region where the two domains overlap. The method applies to the search for birhythmicity, bursting and chaos in a model for the cAMP signalling system of Dictyostelium discoideum amoebae.     

Modeling brain resonance phenomena using a neural mass model

Stimulation with rhythmic light flicker (photic driving) plays an important role in the diagnosis of schizophrenia, mood disorder, migraine, and epilepsy. In particular, the adjustment of spontaneous brain rhythms to the stimulus frequency (entrainment) is used to assess the functional flexibility of the brain. We aim to gain deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying this technique and to predict the effects of stimulus frequency and intensity. For this purpose, a modified Jansen and Rit neural mass model (NMM) of a cortical circuit is used. This mean field model has been designed to strike a balance between mathematical simplicity and biological plausibility. We reproduced the entrainment phenomenon observed in EEG during a photic driving experiment. More generally, we demonstrate that such a single area model can already yield very complex dynamics, including chaos, for biologically plausible parameter ranges. We chart the entire parameter space by means of characteristic Lyapunov spectra and Kaplan-Yorke dimension as well as time series and power spectra. Rhythmic and chaotic brain states were found virtually next to each other, such that small parameter changes can give rise to switching from one to another. Strikingly, this characteristic pattern of unpredictability generated by the model was matched to the experimental data with reasonable accuracy. These findings confirm that the NMM is a useful model of brain dynamics during photic driving. In this context, it can be used to study the mechanisms of, for example, perception and epileptic seizure generation. In particular, it enabled us to make predictions regarding the stimulus amplitude in further experiments for improving the entrainment effect.     

Instability of the steady state solution in cell cycle population structure models with feedback

We show that when cell–cell feedback is added to a model of the cell cycle for a large population of cells, then instability of the steady state solution occurs in many cases. We show this in the context of a generic agent-based ODE model. If the feedback is positive, then instability of the steady state solution is proved for all parameter values except for a small set on the boundary of parameter space. For negative feedback we prove instability for half the parameter space. We also show by example that instability in the other half may be proved on a case by case basis.

     

Soliton behaviour in a bistable reaction diffusion model

We analyze a generic reaction-diffusion model that contains the important features of Turing systems and that has been extensively used in the past to model biological interesting patterns. This model presents various fixed points. Analysis of this model has been made in the past only in the case when there is only a single fixed point, and a phase diagram of all the possible instabilities shows that there is a place where a Turing-Hopf bifurcation occurs producing oscillating Turing patterns. In here we focus on the interesting situation of having several fixed points, particularly when one unstable point is in between two equally stable points. We show that the solutions of this bistable system are traveling front waves, or solitons. The predictions and results are tested by performing extensive numerical calculations in one and two dimensions. The dynamics of these solitons is governed by a well defined spatial scale, and collisions and interactions between solitons depend on this scale. In certain regions of parameter space the wave fronts can be stationary, forming a pattern resembling spatial chaos. The patterns in two dimensions are particularly interesting because they can present a coherent dynamics with pseudo spiral rotations that simulate the myocardial beat quite closely. We show that our simple model can produce complicated spatial patterns with many different properties, and could be used in applications in many different fields.      

On the role of body size in a tri-trophic metapopulation model

 A particular tri-trophic (resource, prey, predator) metapopulation model with dispersal of preys and predators is considered in this paper. The analysis is carried out numerically, by finding the bifurcations of the equilibria and of the limit cycles with respect to prey and predator body sizes. Two routes to chaos are identified. One is characterized by an intriguing cascade of flip and tangent bifurcations of limit cycles, while the other corresponds to the crisis of a strange attractor. The results are summarized by partitioning the space of body sizes in eight subregions, each one of which is associated to a different asymptotic behavior of the system. Emphasis is put on the possibility of having different modes of coexistence (stationary, cyclic, and chaotic) and/or extinction of the predator population. Received 1 August 1995; received in revised form 8 January     

Self-organised spatial patterns and chaos in a ratio-dependent predator–prey system

Mechanisms and scenarios of pattern formation in predator–prey systems have been a focus of many studies recently as they are thought to mimic the processes of ecological patterning in real-world ecosystems. Considerable work has been done with regards to both Turing and non-Turing patterns where the latter often appears to be chaotic. In particular, spatiotemporal chaos remains a controversial issue as it can have important implications for population dynamics. Most of the results, however, were obtained in terms of ‘traditional’ predator–prey models where the per capita predation rate depends on the prey density only. A relatively new family of ratio-dependent predator–prey models remains less studied and still poorly understood, especially when space is taken into account explicitly, in spite of their apparent ecological relevance. In this paper, we consider spatiotemporal pattern formation in a ratio-dependent predator–prey system. We show that the system can develop patterns both inside and outside of the Turing parameter domain. Contrary to widespread opinion, we show that the interaction between two different type of instability, such as the Turing–Hopf bifurcation, does not necessarily lead to the onset of chaos; on the contrary, the emerging patterns remain stationary and almost regular. Spatiotemporal chaos can only be observed for parameters well inside the Turing–Hopf domain. We then investigate the relative importance of these two instability types on the onset of chaos and show that, in a ratio-dependent predator–prey system, the Hopf bifurcation is indeed essential for the onset of chaos whilst the Turing instability is not.     

On the dynamics of discrete food chains: low- and high-frequency behavior and optimality of chaos

 In this paper we derive and analyze a discrete version of Rosenzweig's (Am. Nat. 1973) food-chain model. We provide substantial analytical and numerical evidence for the general dynamical patterns of food chains predicted by De Feo and Rinaldi (Am. Nat. 1997) remaining largely unaffected by this discretization. Our theoretical analysis gives rise to a classification of the parameter space into various regions describing distinct governing dynamical behaviors. Predator abundance has a local optimum at the edge of chaos. Received: 13 August 1999 / Revised version: 12 March 2002 / Published online: 17 October 2002 Mathematics Subject Classification (1991): 92D40 Keywords or phrases: Discrete food-chain – Discrete Hopf (Neimark-Sacker) bifurcation – Pulsewise birth processes – Mean yield maximization – Nicholson-Bailey model     

Parameter domains for instability of uniform states in systems with many delays

 We present a computational method for determining regions in parameter space corresponding to linear instability of a spatially uniform steady state solution of any system of two coupled reaction-diffusion equations containing up to four delay terms. At each point in parameter space the required stability properties of the linearised system are found using mainly the Principle of the Argument. The method is first developed for perturbations of a particular wavenumber, and then generalised to allow arbitrary perturbations. Each delay term in the system may be of either a fixed or a distributed type, and spatio-temporal delays are also allowed. Received 19 September 1995; received in revised form 4 September 1996