城市生态韧性时空变化及情景模拟研究——以杭州市为例

从韧性的特征角度研究城市生态韧性水平的变化机制,探究城市防范化解生态风险能力的时空差异,以此明确城市分区生态治理的重要任务,是实现韧性城市生态风险防控的有利途径。从抵抗力、适应力和恢复力3个方面构建了城市生态韧性评估模型,并以杭州为例,评估了其1995—2015年城市生态韧性时空变化格局,再者利用空间自相关模型对2015年杭州生态韧性分区管理模式进行了探究。最后,基于FLUS模型模拟了2035年基准和创新创业导向的两种情景下的城市土地利用空间格局,并评估了不同城市发展情景下的生态韧性水平空间分布情况。基于以上研究得到以下结论:(1)1995—2005年,生态韧性低值区域向东北和东南方向扩张,而生态韧性高值水平区域明显减少。2005—2015年,杭州西北部和西部原本存在的中等韧性水平区域也转为低等水平。(2)2015年,城市东北区域呈现低韧性水平-高排污企业密度的集聚分布,说明该区域环境生态风险防范化解能力比较低,需要加大环境监测和生态治理的资金投入,严防重大环境污染事件的发生。(3)创新创业导向的\"创新天堂\"城市发展情景比基准情景下2035年杭州整体生态韧性水平更高,主要影响因素在于前...     

城市生态韧性水平空间评估及其驱动力——以北京市通州区为例

随着城镇化水平的提高、城镇化进程的发展,城市生态系统逐渐变得脆弱不堪,增强城市生态韧性水平对城市发展起关键性作用。以韧性的核心内涵为基础评估城市生态韧性水平,探究城市防范化解生态风险能力在空间上的差异,从而制定分区生态治理制度,是提升城市防范化解生态风险能力的有效办法。从抵抗力、适应力和恢复力三方面构建了城市生态韧性水平空间评估模型,以2020年北京市通州区行政边界、土地利用、重点排污单位、人口等数据为例,评估了2020年北京市通州区生态韧性空间格局,并利用空间自相关模型对其分区生态治理进行研究。最后利用地理加权回归分析模型（Geographical weighted regression,GWR）进行驱动力分析,探讨社会经济层面对城市生态韧性水平空间的影响,并提出建设性建议。主要得到以下结论：（1）在空间结构上,通州区生态韧性低值区域最多,占比为52.80%,主要分布于通州区北部、东北部、中部偏西及东南部;高值区域最少,占比0.83%,零星分布于偏西部地区和偏南部地区。通州区由于缺乏相对适宜的整体规划和统筹安排,使城市生态系统的循环体系受到了负面影响,从而导致东南地区抵抗力弱。同时,近年来降水点的南移使得大量水资源在城市热岛效应的作用下流失,通州区东南部及通州大运河沿线区域内恢复力呈现出大范围低值水平。（2）通州区中心偏西北地区为副中心的核心地带,呈现低韧性水平-高排污企业密度的集聚分布情况,且生态韧性低值区域主要集聚于新华街、中仓街、玉桥街等区域,说明这些区域的环境生态风险防范化解能力比较低,需要因地制宜地对生态危机做出可持续的分区生态治理,增强区域对生态风险的调节能力。（3）结合GWR模型的驱动力分析,城市生态韧性水平主要被城市功能多样性驱动,且城市功能多样性越强,城市生态韧性水平越低,在通州区西北部的城市副中心负向影响最为显著。研究结果为城市生态韧性水平发展优化提供了理论依据,为促进国土空间合理利用和有效保护发挥积极作用。     

城市雨洪管理实践需要生态实践智慧的引导

生态实践智慧是人类(个人、人群乃至社会)在对人与自然互利共生关系深刻感悟的基础上、成功从事生态实践的能力,是一种选择\"正确的\"生态知识成功进行\"为善的\"生态实践的能力。生态知识只有通过成功的生态实践,才可能转化为生态实践智慧。生态实践智慧通过巧妙连接各类生态知识与整体实践行动,不仅自古以来就引导着人类应对雨洪管理实践,还成就了众多造福万代的雨洪管理工程。在当下我国城市雨洪管理的实践中,它应该而且能够继续成为有效的引导者。     

生态智慧引导下的太原市棕地修复逻辑与策略

城市生态系统是一个复杂的人工系统,城市经过快速掠夺式的发展已经造成绿地生态空间锐减,水体资源缺乏且污染严重,热岛效应突出和城市棕地面积大且污染严重等一系列生态问题。以资源枯竭型城市内大量存在的棕地为研究对象,认为城市棕地的修复需要生态智慧的引导,在建立生态智慧引导的城市棕地修复逻辑和框架的基础上,结合太原市棕地生态修复实践,建立从棕地安全性修复、棕地功能修复和棕地景观修复的综合修复框架,提出分期分类多元化再生,分类利用城市功能活化,去棕还绿抗污染植物配置棕地修复的生态智慧策略。     

黄河流域城市生态韧性时空演变及其影响因素

城市作为最复杂的社会生态系统,在经历经济快速积累、城镇化加快推进的同时,面临着资源短缺、环境污染、生物多样性锐减等生态环境挑战,增强城市生态韧性对城市可持续发展至关重要。从韧性的内涵角度评估城市生态韧性水平,探究城市防范内外生态风险能力的时空特征,剖析城市生态韧性差异的影响机制,对实施城市生态文明建设与风险防控具有指导意义。基于\"演化韧性\"视角从\"抵抗-响应-转型\"三个能力构建城市生态韧性指标体系,以黄河流域七大城市群59个地级市2011-2020年面板数据为例,运用熵权-逼近理想解排序法(熵权-TOPSIS法)、传统和空间马尔可夫链,在对黄河流域城市生态韧性进行定量测算的基础上,分析其时空特征。最后利用面板分位数回归深入探索黄河流域城市生态韧性影响因素的分段效应,提高对城市生态韧性影响机制的认识。结果表明:(1)2011-2020年,城市生态韧性均值在(0.092,0.125)范围内,呈现缓慢增长态势;离散程度呈倒\"U\"型变化特征趋势;空间上,城市生态韧性表现为\"下游强、上中游弱\",城市群内部以省会城市为核心向外围地级市递减,\"中心-外围\"的分布格局明显。(2)城市生态韧性主要在相邻等级之间进行递次转移,仍未实现跨等级转移,具有\"路径依赖\"和\"自身锁定\"特征;地理空间背景在城市生态韧性动态演变过程中发挥着重要作用,表现为\"强强联合、低低临近\"的集聚效应。(3)影响因素方面,经济发展水平、科技创新对城市生态韧性具有显著促进作用;产业结构对城市生态韧性表现为显著抑制作用,人口密度和环境规制对城市生态韧性不同分位点的影响作用存在显著的异质性。研究结果可为黄河流域全面推进生态保护与建设\"韧性城市\"提供一定的科学参考和理论依据。     

基于传统生态智慧的江南水网空间韧性机制及实践启示

传统江南水网空间是一种典型的社会—生态系统,人文社会系统和自然生态系统之间的良性互动对于其韧性构建有着重要的积极作用。基于柯林斯等人提出的压力—冲击动态（PPD）模型,以平江府为典型代表,研究传统江南水网空间如何通过生态系统服务的桥梁搭建水网物质空间与人类社区发展之间的联系,从而厘清社会—生态系统在此过程中如何培育、优化和提升江南水网空间韧性。在此基础上,创新性地从生态系统服务供需关系的角度提出社会—生态韧性构建的生态智慧,并倡导以恢复力、适应力与变革力韧性机制培育为导向的、江南地区构建现代社区实践的若干启示,旨在引导江南水网空间实现具有韧性的社会—生态系统转型发展。     

深圳城市生态大数据智慧管理和服务平台技术集成与应用研究

生态环境是人类赖以生存和发展的基础,城市生态大数据智慧管理和服务平台建设是生态城市和美丽城市建设的需要。以深圳市为例,借助物联网、移动互联网、计算机、数据库和网络地理信息系统技术,以及时空地理大数据整合和共享、大数据挖掘分析和云端一体化业务协同等关键技术,结合城市生态系统评估分析决策模型/方法/对策库,在实现深圳市“空-地-网-统计-众源”等多源异构生态大数据有效集成的基础上,搭建了 “数据采集-信息提取-知识发现-决策生成-快速服务”全流程、一体化的深圳市生态大数据智慧管理和服务平台,构建了面向业务部门和科研人员等专业用户的生态野外数据调查采集系统和城市生态监测与评估管理决策分析系统,以及面向社会大众的深圳生态大调查APP。平台首次揭示了深圳市1979年以来不同生态系统的格局、构成、过程、服务和健康状况的变化,提升了深圳市生态环境综合决策科学化、生态环境监管精准化、生态环境公共服务便民化水平。平台有效降低了用户数据收集与处理和操作专业模型的难度,突破了原始数据应用的瓶颈和难点,提高了专业模型在业务部门中的使用率。未来,依靠“生态大数据+生态专业模型”的技术方案实现从数据到知识的挖掘,是实现城市生态大数据智慧化和专业化管理的关键,也是全面提高城市生态环境保护信息化服务水平的重要途径。     

城市生态智慧管理系统的生态系统服务评估功能与应用

开展生态系统服务评估已经成为国土空间功能管治、城市治理、生态产品价值实现等工作中的先行基础动作。生态系统服务的类型和模型方法多,数据需求复杂,传统基于多学科软件开展生态系统服务评估的工作模式知识和技术门槛较高、效率低。当前专业的生态系统服务评估软件多为美国从业人员开发,对我国的数据构成和本地化参数适应性有限。介绍了我国自主开发的生态系统分析软件（城市生态智慧管理系统,IUEMS）的主要功能和应用情况,并将其的生态系统服务评估功能与InVEST、ARIES等国外主流软件在操作逻辑、评估模型、数据取得、空间精度、界面交互五个方面进行了对比。     

从环境伦理的视角看生态智慧引导下的城市雨洪管理实践

以环境伦理为视角探讨生态智慧和水生态治理。介绍了环境伦理在西方的产生历史和对西方生态实践发挥的巨大作用,同时分析西方以内在价值或权利为核心所建立的环境伦理理论的思维范式;从\"恋地情结\"出发探讨中国哲学文化熏陶下的心理,并指出这种价值层面的探讨对中国当前生态实践的意义;对\"恋地情结\"的本质进行分析,指出恋地情结是在俗世中而又超越世俗的哲学文化心理,是在实践基础上实现的审美栖居方式。     

天山北坡经济带经济韧性与生态韧性的时空耦合

如何平衡经济-生态间的关系,以应对外部扰动和冲击,成为促进区域可持续发展的关键。借鉴韧性理论,构建了生态韧性和经济韧性评价指标体系,基于多源数据,利用耦合协调度模型和核密度方法分析了天山北坡经济带经济韧性与生态韧性的时空耦合特征,并探索了各要素对二者耦合协调度的影响。结果发现：(1)2000—2020年天山北坡经济带经济韧性总体以中等水平为主,呈现天山北坡“中段>西段>南部>东段”的空间分异特征;(2)生态韧性则总体处于低水平,呈现“西北高东南低”“低值集聚、高值分散”的空间分布特征;(3)经济韧性和生态韧性一直处于“失调”状态,但逐渐由轻度失调向濒临失调转变,且西段和中段的耦合协调度高于东段和南部;(4)经济韧性与生态韧性各要素对耦合协调度的影响存在差异,其中经济潜力韧性和生态系统抵抗力对经济韧性和生态韧性耦合协调关系的阻滞作用最强,经济结构韧性和生态系统恢复力对经济韧性和生态韧性耦合协调关系的推动作用最强。通过时空动态分析和关键影响因素的识别,本研究为可持续发展政策提供了综合视角。平衡这两个方面不仅对该地区当前的稳定至关重要,也是确保其在未来挑战中长期生存的关键所在。     

辽河三角洲盘锦湿地防洪功能研究

对辽河三角洲盘锦湿地洪水特征、洪灾的演变,湿地的防洪功能进行分析研究,揭示了洪水对湿地形成的生态意义以及湿地在抗洪减灾中的作用。为减少洪灾造成的经济损失,应用加大对天然湿地的保护力度,充分发挥湿地在减灾中的功能,并根据盘锦湿地的水文地质特征和防洪减灾中的景观功能将湿规划分为重点防护区,洪水地下存储区,泄洪区,紧急分洪区和防洪排涝区,可作为当地区域发展规划时参考。     

Mapping technological and biophysical capacities of watersheds to regulate floods

Flood regulation is a widely valued and studied service provided by watersheds. Flood regulation benefits people directly by decreasing the socio-economic costs of flooding and indirectly by its positive impacts on cultural (e.g., fishing) and provisioning (e.g., water supply) ecosystem services. Like other regulating ecosystem services (e.g., pollination, water purification), flood regulation is often enhanced or replaced by technology, but the relative efficacy of natural versus technological features in controlling floods has scarcely been examined. In an effort to assess flood regulation capacity for selected urban watersheds in the southeastern United States, we: (1) used long-term flood records to assess relative influence of technological and biophysical indicators on flood magnitude and duration, (2) compared the widely used runoff curve number (RCN) approach for assessing the biophysical capacity to regulate floods to an alternative approach that acknowledges land cover and soil properties separately, and (3) mapped technological and biophysical flood regulation capacities based on indicator importance-values derived for flood magnitude and duration. We found that watersheds with high biophysical (via the alternative approach) and technological capacities lengthened the duration and lowered the peak of floods. We found the RCN approach yielded results opposite that expected, possibly because it confounds soil and land cover processes, particularly in urban landscapes, while our alternative approach coherently separates these processes. Mapping biophysical (via the alternative approach) and technological capacities revealed great differences among watersheds. Our study improves on previous mapping of flood regulation by (1) incorporating technological capacity, (2) providing high spatial resolution (i.e., 10-m pixel) maps of watershed capacities, and (3) deriving importance-values for selected landscape indicators. By accounting for technology that enhances or replaces natural flood regulation, our approach enables watershed managers to make more informed choices in their flood-control investments.     

L’espèce entre résilience et sérendipité

This paper is a personal reflection rather than a demonstration. It discusses the relationship between two properties of species: resilience, which allows species to resist perturbations, and serendipity, which allows them to change even under weak perturbations. Among the great problems raised by the transformation of species, the most astonishing fact is that species are extraordinarily stable. This stability, to which we hardly pay attention, is part of our everyday life, up to the point that it forms the basis of our deepest thought, the eternal Ideas of Plato and the substance of Aristotle. This suspected stability has also been used to support doctrines of the loathed creationists. All the definitions of species, even the arbitrary boundaries and nominalist conventions, bear the embarrassing sign of resilience, which contradicts the idea of evolution.     

A reconstruction of flood events using scarred trees in the Tatra Mountains, Poland

In this paper we reconstructed flood events in a small mountain stream (6.6 km long, elevation 1100–1950 m a.s.l.) in the Dolina Waksmundzka Valley in the Tatra Mountains in the Western Carpathians. This reconstruction was based on cross-dated flood scars found in Norway spruce trees growing along stream banks. The scars were most likely formed by woody debris and stones transported during flood events. Reconstructed flood years were then compared with climatic records collected at the nearest meteorological station.Fifty-eight scars were cross-dated indicating 17 years with flood events in the period between 1928 and 2005. The large number of reconstructed flood events proves that the Potok Waksmundzki stream discharge can be highly variable. The high mid-summer rainfall (approximately 300 mm or more per month) peaks in June, July, August and this period coincides with some of the flood scar formation. The high winter and spring precipitation (December–May) does not seem to induce floods. The rate of snow melting seems to be more important. The highest number of scars (33%) was formed in dormant season of 1957/1958. In April and May 1958 there was an unusually large difference between mean monthly temperatures, the highest recorded in the twentieth century. This probably led to an abnormally rapid snow melt. No one single climatic factor can be held responsible for all flood events. Intensive mid-summer rainfall as well as rapid snow melting may induce floods in the Dolina Waksmundzka Valley. Cross-dated scars have enabled past flood events to be detected, which are otherwise invisible from climatic data alone.     

A comment on “Changing estuaries,changing views”

The provision of flood safety is of paramount importance in densely populated deltaic regions. The Dutch rely on flood defences to protect their lives and livelihoods from large-scale floods. The paper “Changing estuaries, changing views” (Smits et al., Hydrobiologica 565:339–355, 2006) criticizes this strategy and presents an alternative that could be summarized as a proposal to leave deltas untouched and to rely on natural sedimentation to reduce the impact of floods. It seems questionable, however, whether such a strategy will often be compatible with population pressures and efforts to stimulate economic growth. Moreover, it presupposes morphological conditions that seem highly unrealistic, not just in the Netherlands but also in many other sediment-starved coastal systems. Other than recommending countries not to implement the Dutch flood protection strategy and to leave deltas untouched, it should be recommended that solutions be tailored to local circumstances. The choice of a flood protection strategy should be based on a balanced evaluation of alternatives, including a realistic assessment of physical conditions.

长江干流季节性水淹滩地杨树生长规律研究

研究了长江中下游干流滩地抑螺防病林的主要树种杨树的生长规律,建立了杨树的生 长动态数学模型．经过进一步的生长动态模型分析,研究结果表明：滩地高程是影响杨树胸径、 树高和材积生长量的关键因子．滩地淹水时间超过６０天的地方,杨树生长受到明显的影响．