Bias-corrected variance estimation and hypothesis testing for spatial point and marked point processes using subsampling

Summary We introduce novel regression extrapolation based methods to correct the often large bias in subsampling variance estimation as well as hypothesis testing for spatial point and marked point processes. For variance estimation, our proposed estimators are linear combinations of the usual subsampling variance estimator based on subblock sizes in a continuous interval. We show that they can achieve better rates in mean squared error than the usual subsampling variance estimator. In particular, for n×n observation windows, the optimal rate of n^?2 can be achieved if the data have a finite dependence range. For hypothesis testing, we apply the proposed regression extrapolation directly to the test statistics based on different subblock sizes, and therefore avoid the need to conduct bias correction for each element in the covariance matrix used to set up the test statistics. We assess the numerical performance of the proposed methods through simulation, and apply them to analyze a tropical forest data set.     

A note on testing separability in spatial-temporal marked point processes

Summary .   In environmental risk analysis, it is common to assume the stochastic independence (or separability) between the marks associated with the random events of a spatial-temporal point process. Schoenberg (2004, Biometrics 60, 471–481) proposed several test statistics for this hypothesis and used simulated data to evaluate their performance. He found that a Cramér-von Mises-type test is powerful to detect gradual departures from separability although it is not uniformly powerful over a large class of alternative models. We present a semiparametric approach to model alternative hypotheses to separability and derive a score test statistic. We show that there is a relationship between this score test and some of the test statistics proposed by Schoenberg. Specifically, all are different versions of weighted Cramér-von Mises-type statistics. This gives some insight into the reasons for the similarities and differences between the test statistics' performance. We also point out some difficulties in controlling the type I error probability in Schoenberg's residual test.     

Modelling Tree Roots in Mixed Forest Stands by Inhomogeneous Marked Gibbs Point Processes

The aim of the paper is to apply point processes to root data modelling. We propose a new approach to parametric inference when the data are inhomogeneous replicated marked point patterns. We generalize Geyer's saturation point process to a model, which combines inhomogeneity, marks and interaction between the marked points. Furthermore, the inhomogeneity influences the definition of the neighbourhood of points. Using the maximum pseudolikelihood method, this model is then fitted to root data from mixed stands of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to quantify the degree of root aggregation in such mixed stands. According to the analysis there is no evidence that the two root systems are not independent.     

Assessing isotropy for spatial point processes

A common assumption while analyzing spatial point processes is direction invariance, i.e., isotropy. In this article, we propose a formal nonparametric approach to test for isotropy based on the asymptotic joint normality of the sample second-order intensity function. We derive an L(2) consistent subsampling estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix of the sample second-order intensity function and use this to construct a test statistic with a chi(2) limiting distribution. We demonstrate the efficacy of the approach through simulation studies and an application to a desert plant data set, where our approach confirms suspected directional effects in the spatial distribution of the desert plant species.     

On chiasma formation point processes having the count location property

The count-location (C-L) chiasma formation schemes introduced by Karlin and Liberman (1979b) encompass a broad class of map functions involving positive, negative or no chiasma interference. The C-L schemes do not explictly assume a specific mechanism of crossover formation, but rather a statistical property of the process. If viewed as a stochastic point process along the chromosome, it is shown that a crossing over mechanism having the C-L property is actually a rescaled mixture of Poisson processes. Surprisingly it turns out that these C-L point processes involve negative interference throughout the entire genome.Research supported in part by NIH grants GM 28016 and GM 10452     

On Variograms in Point Process Statistics,II: Models of Markings and Ecological Interpretation

This paper presents new models for marked point processes for describing forestry data. In these models two factors play a role: Long‐range variability is modeled by a random field, which may describe environmental variability, while short‐range variability is caused by the interaction of points of two classes. These models may help in the interpretation of empirical mark variograms as is shown by two examples from forestry statistics.     

Understanding species distribution in dynamic populations: a new approach using spatio‐temporal point process models

Understanding and predicting a species’ distribution across a landscape is of central importance in ecology, biogeography and conservation biology. However, it presents daunting challenges when populations are highly dynamic (i.e. increasing or decreasing their ranges), particularly for small populations where information about ecology and life history traits is lacking. Currently, many modelling approaches fail to distinguish whether a site is unoccupied because the available habitat is unsuitable or because a species expanding its range has not arrived at the site yet. As a result, habitat that is indeed suitable may appear unsuitable. To overcome some of these limitations, we use a statistical modelling approach based on spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox processes. These model the spatial distribution of the species across available habitat and how this distribution changes over time, relative to covariates. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for spatio‐temporal dynamics that are unaccounted for by covariates through a spatio‐temporal stochastic process. We illustrate the approach by predicting the distribution of a recently established population of Eurasian cranes Grus grus in England, UK, and estimate the effect of a reintroduction in the range expansion of the population. Our models show that wetland extent and perimeter‐to‐area ratio have a positive and negative effect, respectively, in crane colonisation probability. Moreover, we find that cranes are more likely to colonise areas near already occupied wetlands and that the colonisation process is progressing at a low rate. Finally, the reintroduction of cranes in SW England can be considered a human‐assisted long‐distance dispersal event that has increased the dispersal potential of the species along a longitudinal axis in S England. Spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox process models offer an excellent opportunity for the study of species where information on life history traits is lacking, since these are represented through the spatio‐temporal dynamics reflected in the model.     

An estimating function approach to inference for inhomogeneous Neyman-Scott processes

This article is concerned with inference for a certain class of inhomogeneous Neyman-Scott point processes depending on spatial covariates. Regression parameter estimates obtained from a simple estimating function are shown to be asymptotically normal when the "mother" intensity for the Neyman-Scott process tends to infinity. Clustering parameter estimates are obtained using minimum contrast estimation based on the K-function. The approach is motivated and illustrated by applications to point pattern data from a tropical rain forest plot.     

A KPSS test for stationarity for spatial point processes

Summary .   We propose a formal method to test stationarity for spatial point processes. The proposed test statistic is based on the integrated squared deviations of observed counts of events from their means estimated under stationarity. We show that the resulting test statistic converges in distribution to a functional of a two-dimensional Brownian motion. To conduct the test, we compare the calculated statistic with the upper tail critical values of this functional. Our method requires only a weak dependence condition on the process but does not assume any parametric model for it. As a result, it can be applied to a wide class of spatial point process models. We study the efficacy of the test through both simulations and applications to two real data examples that were previously suspected to be nonstationary based on graphical evidence. Our test formally confirmed the suspected nonstationarity for both data.     

On Second Order Neighbourhood Analysis of Mapped Point Patterns

Getis and Franklin (1987), introduced a technique based on second order methods, called second order neighbourhood method, which is used to quantify clustering at various spatial scales. Variants of this method are introduced for testing whether a spatial point pattern is consistent with the hypothesis of a Poisson process. These variants are applied to point location data for a sample of Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees.     

随机时污染源影响的单种群微生物的灭绝分析

建立了污染物排放对微生物种群生灭影响的模型,研究了随机时刻灭绝概率Ψ(x,T)的一致渐近性,并最终得到一致渐近公式Ψ(x,T)～Eλ(T)(?).     

Variance estimation for statistics computed from single recurrent event processes

This article is concerned with variance estimation for statistics that are computed from single recurrent event processes. Such statistics are important in diagnosis for each individual recurrent event process. The proposed method only assumes a semiparametric form for the first-order structure of the processes but not for the second-order (i.e., dependence) structure. The new variance estimator is shown to be consistent for the target parameter under very mild conditions. The estimator can be used in many applications in semiparametric rate regression analysis of recurrent event data such as outlier detection, residual diagnosis, as well as robust regression. A simulation study and application to two real data examples are used to demonstrate the use of the proposed method.     

Point process models of single-neuron discharges

In most neural systems, neurons communicate via sequences of action potentials. Contemporary models assume that the action potentials' times of occurrence rather than their waveforms convey information. The mathematical tool for describing sequences of events occurring in time and/or space is the theory of point processes. Using this theory, we show that neural discharge patterns convey time-varying information intermingled with the neuron's response characteristics. We review the basic techniques for analyzing single-neuron discharge patterns and describe what they reveal about the underlying point process model. By applying information theory and estimation theory to point processes, we describe the fundamental limits on how well information can be represented by and extracted from neural discharges. We illustrate applying these results by considering recordings from the lower auditory pathway.     

Analysis of pulsatile hormone concentration profiles with nonconstant Basal concentration: a bayesian approach

Many challenges arise in the analysis of pulsatile, or episodic, hormone concentration time series data. Among these challenges is the determination of the number and location of pulsatile events and the discrimination of events from noise. Analyses of these data are typically performed in two stages. In the first stage, the number and approximate location of the pulses are determined. In the second stage, a model (typically a deconvolution model) is fit to the data conditional on the number of pulses. Any error made in the first stage is carried over to the second stage. Furthermore, current methods, except two, assume that the underlying basal concentration is constant. We present a fully Bayesian deconvolution model that simultaneously estimates the number of secretion episodes, as well as their locations, and a nonconstant basal concentration. This model obviates the need to determine the number of events a priori. Furthermore, we estimate probabilities for all "candidate" event locations. We demonstrate our method on a real data set.     

Bayesian Wombling for Spatial Point Processes

Summary In many applications involving geographically indexed data, interest focuses on identifying regions of rapid change in the spatial surface, or the related problem of the construction or testing of boundaries separating regions with markedly different observed values of the spatial variable. This process is often referred to in the literature as boundary analysis or wombling. Recent developments in hierarchical models for point‐referenced (geostatistical) and areal (lattice) data have led to corresponding statistical wombling methods, but there does not appear to be any literature on the subject in the point‐process case, where the locations themselves are assumed to be random and likelihood evaluation is notoriously difficult. We extend existing point‐level and areal wombling tools to this case, obtaining full posterior inference for multivariate spatial random effects that, when mapped, can help suggest spatial covariates still missing from the model. In the areal case we can also construct wombled maps showing significant boundaries in the fitted intensity surface, while the point‐referenced formulation permits testing the significance of a postulated boundary. In the computationally demanding point‐referenced case, our algorithm combines Monte Carlo approximants to the likelihood with a predictive process step to reduce the dimension of the problem to a manageable size. We apply these techniques to an analysis of colorectal and prostate cancer data from the northern half of Minnesota, where a key substantive concern is possible similarities in their spatial patterns, and whether they are affected by each patient's distance to facilities likely to offer helpful cancer screening options.