Impact of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission: assessing the empirical evidence that repeated ivermectin mass treatments may lead to elimination/eradication in West-Africa

BACKGROUND: The Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa has been closed down at the end of 2002. All subsequent control will be transferred to the participating countries and will almost entirely be based on periodic mass treatment with ivermectin. This makes the question whether elimination of infection or eradication of onchocerciasis can be achieved using this strategy of critical importance. This study was undertaken to explore this issue. METHODS: An empirical approach was adopted in which a comprehensive analysis was undertaken of available data on the impact of more than a decade of ivermectin treatment on onchocerciasis infection and transmission. Relevant entomological and epidemiological data from 14 river basins in the OCP and one basin in Cameroon were reviewed. Areas were distinguished by frequency of treatment (6-monthly or annually), endemicity level and additional control measures such as vector control. Assessment of results were in terms of epidemiological and entomological parameters, and as a measure of inputs, therapeutic and geographical coverage rates were used. RESULTS: In all of the river basins studied, ivermectin treatment sharply reduced prevalence and intensity of infection. Significant transmission, however, is still ongoing in some basins after 10-12 years of ivermectin treatment. In other basins, transmission may have been interrupted, but this needs to be confirmed by in-depth evaluations. In one mesoendemic basin, where 20 rounds of four-monthly treatment reduced prevalence of infection to levels as low as 2-3%, there was significant recrudescence of infection within a few years after interruption of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Ivermectin treatment has been very successful in eliminating onchocerciasis as a public health problem. However, the results presented in this paper make it almost certain that repeated ivermectin mass treatment will not lead to the elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis from West Africa. Data on 6-monthly treatments are not sufficient to draw definitive conclusions.     

Modeling the Impact and Costs of Semiannual Mass Drug Administration for Accelerated Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) has a target date of 2020. This program is progressing well in many countries. However, progress has been slow in some countries, and others have not yet started their mass drug administration (MDA) programs. Acceleration is needed. We studied how increasing MDA frequency from once to twice per year would affect program duration and costs by using computer simulation modeling and cost projections. We used the LYMFASIM simulation model to estimate how many annual or semiannual MDA rounds would be required to eliminate LF for Indian and West African scenarios with varied pre-control endemicity and coverage levels. Results were used to estimate total program costs assuming a target population of 100,000 eligibles, a 3% discount rate, and not counting the costs of donated drugs. A sensitivity analysis was done to investigate the robustness of these results with varied assumptions for key parameters. Model predictions suggested that semiannual MDA will require the same number of MDA rounds to achieve LF elimination as annual MDA in most scenarios. Thus semiannual MDA programs should achieve this goal in half of the time required for annual programs. Due to efficiency gains, total program costs for semiannual MDA programs are projected to be lower than those for annual MDA programs in most scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this conclusion is robust. Semiannual MDA is likely to shorten the time and lower the cost required for LF elimination in countries where it can be implemented. This strategy may improve prospects for global elimination of LF by the target year 2020.     

The potential contribution of mass treatment to the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Mass treatment as a means to reducing P. falciparum malaria transmission was used during the first global malaria eradication campaign and is increasingly being considered for current control programmes. We used a previously developed mathematical transmission model to explore both the short and long-term impact of possible mass treatment strategies in different scenarios of endemic transmission. Mass treatment is predicted to provide a longer-term benefit in areas with lower malaria transmission, with reduced transmission levels for at least 2 years after mass treatment is ended in a scenario where the baseline slide-prevalence is 5%, compared to less than one year in a scenario with baseline slide-prevalence at 50%. However, repeated annual mass treatment at 80% coverage could achieve around 25% reduction in infectious bites in moderate-to-high transmission settings if sustained. Using vector control could reduce transmission to levels at which mass treatment has a longer-term impact. In a limited number of settings (which have isolated transmission in small populations of 1000-10,000 with low-to-medium levels of baseline transmission) we find that five closely spaced rounds of mass treatment combined with vector control could make at least temporary elimination a feasible goal. We also estimate the effects of using gametocytocidal treatments such as primaquine and of restricting treatment to parasite-positive individuals. In conclusion, mass treatment needs to be repeated or combined with other interventions for long-term impact in many endemic settings. The benefits of mass treatment need to be carefully weighed against the risks of increasing drug selection pressure.     

Uncertainty Surrounding Projections of the Long-Term Impact of Ivermectin Treatment on Human Onchocerciasis

Background

Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30–35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We modify a deterministic age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission model, parameterised for savannah O. volvulus–Simulium damnosum, to explore the impact of assumptions regarding the effect of ivermectin on worm fertility and the patterns of treatment coverage compliance, and frequency on projections of parasitological outcomes due to long-term, mass ivermectin administration in hyperendemic areas. The projected impact of ivermectin distribution on onchocerciasis and the benefits of switching from annual to biannual distribution are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the drug''s effect on worm fertility and on treatment compliance. If ivermectin does not have a cumulative impact on microfilarial production, elimination of onchocerciasis in hyperendemic areas may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution.

Conclusions/Significance

There is substantial (biological and programmatic) uncertainty surrounding modelling projections of onchocerciasis elimination. These uncertainties need to be acknowledged for mathematical models to inform control policy reliably. Further research is needed to elucidate the effect of ivermectin on O. volvulus reproductive biology and quantify the patterns of coverage and compliance in treated communities.     

Interruption of Infection Transmission in the Onchocerciasis Focus of Ecuador Leading to the Cessation of Ivermectin Distribution

Introduction: A clinically significant endemic focus of onchocerciasis existing in Esmeraldas Province, coastal Ecuador has been under an ivermectin mass drug administration program since 1991. The main transmitting vector in this area is the voracious blackfly, Simulium exiguum. This paper describes the assessments made that support the decision to cease mass treatment. Methodology and Principle Findings: Thirty-five rounds of ivermectin treatment occurred between 1991–2009 with 29 of these carrying >85% coverage. Following the guidelines set by WHO for ceasing ivermectin distribution the impact on parasite transmission was measured in the two vector species by an O-150 PCR technique standard for assessing for the presence of Onchocerca volvulus. Up to seven collection sites in three major river systems were tested on four occasions between 1995 and 2008. The infectivity rates of 65.0 (CI 39–101) and 72.7 (CI 42–116) in 1995 dropped to zero at all seven collection sites by 2008. Assessment for the presence of antibodies against O. volvulus was made in 2001, 2006, 2007 and 2008 using standard ELISA assays for detecting anti-Ov16 antibodies. None of total of 1810 children aged 1–15 years (between 82 and 98% of children present in the surveyed villages) tested in the above years were found to be carrying antibodies to this antigen. These findings were the basis for the cessation of mass drug treatment with ivermectin in 2009. Significance: This fulfillment of the criteria for cessation of mass distribution of ivermectin in the only known endemic zone of onchocerciasis in Ecuador moves the country into the surveillance phase of official verification for national elimination of transmission of infection. These findings indicate that ivermectin given twice a year with greater than 85% of the community can move a program to the final stages of verification of transmission interruption.     

Effectiveness of annual ivermectin treatment for Wuchereria bancrofti infection

Using estimates for the anthelmintic efficacy of a single dose of ivermectin in the treatment of lymphatic filariasis patients, Anton Plaisier, Wilma Stolk, Gerrit van Oortmarssen and Dik Habbema here present and discuss model predictions of the impact of a five-year programme of annual community treatment on the intensity of infection. They show that the effectiveness of such programmes in terms of reductions in the microfilarial density depends critically on the treatment coverage and the pattern of attendance at repeated mass administrations. Improving these factors will possibly be more important than improving the efficacy of ivermectin by increasing its dosage or by adding other drugs.     

Reducing Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission in Africa: A Model-Based Evaluation of Intervention Strategies

Background

Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools.

Methods and Findings

We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus) with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT), and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs), vector–species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR∼3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year]), LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (<1% parasite prevalence in all age-groups) provided usage levels are high and sustained. In two of the moderate-transmission settings (EIR∼43 and 81 ibppy), additional rounds of IRS with DDT coupled with MSAT could drive parasite prevalence below a 1% threshold. However, in the third (EIR = 46) with An. arabiensis prevailing, these interventions are insufficient to reach this threshold. In both high-transmission settings (EIR∼586 and 675 ibppy), either unrealistically high coverage levels (>90%) or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels.

Conclusions

Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting), provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through roll-out of interventions. In high-transmission settings and those in which vectors are mainly exophilic (outdoor-resting), additional new tools that target exophagic (outdoor-biting), exophilic, and partly zoophagic mosquitoes will be required. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Factors Associated with Ivermectin Non-Compliance and Its Potential Role in Sustaining Onchocerca volvulus Transmission in the West Region of Cameroon

BackgroundCommunity Directed Treatment with ivermectin is the cornerstone of current efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis. However recent studies suggest there are foci where long-term annual distribution of the drug alone has failed to ensure elimination thresholds are reached. It is important to achieve high levels of compliance in order to obtain elimination targets. An epidemiological and entomological evaluation conducted in the western region of Cameroon in 2011 revealed that two health districts remained with a high prevalence of infection, despite long-term distribution of ivermectin since 1996. This paper explores potential factors that may have contributed to the non-interruption of transmission, focusing on ivermectin treatment compliance and the importance of systematic non-compliance within the population.Conclusions/SignificanceEfforts to reduce the number of systematic non-compliers and non-compliance in certain groups may be important in ensuring the interruption of transmission in the study area. However, in areas with high pre-control force of transmission, as in these districts, annual distribution with ivermectin, even if sustaining high levels of compliance, may still be inadequate to achieve elimination. Further studies are required to better understand the transmission dynamics and focus of on-going transmission in the study districts.     

Mass drug treatment for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis

This review summarizes the progress towards control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) and onchocerciasis, focussing on the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes, in particular those that have developed following the donation of ivermectin and albendazole. The contrasting strategies and objectives of the different programmes are compared, and the impact on transmission, clinical disease and public health assessed. The constraints on programme success are: (i) the absence of a macrofilaricide, which can be used in a public health context; (ii) the sustainability of high coverage of ivermectin over many years in onchocerciasis control; and (iii) the problem of treatment in areas where Loa loa (tropical eye worm) is co-endemic with onchocerciasis because of the rare severe adverse events. LF programmes are expanding rapidly in over 30 countries, where circa 60 million people received treatments in 2002. No serious adverse events have been associated with MDAs for LF elimination. Research on new approaches to treatment using antibiotics are showing promising results in pilot settings because doxycyline has been shown to have long-term embryostatic effects and sustained reductions of microfilaria loads in onchocerciasis and bancroftian filariasis.     

African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995–2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

Background

Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.

Methods and Findings

With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.

Conclusions

Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.     

Mass ivermectin treatment for Onchocerciasis: Lack of evidence for collateral impact on transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti in areas of co-endemicity

There has long been interest in determining if mass ivermectin administration for onchocerciasis has 'unknowingly' interrupted lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission where the endemicity of the two diseases' overlaps. We studied 11 communities in central Nigeria entomologically for LF by performing mosquito dissections on Anopheline LF vectors. Six of the communities studied were located within an onchocerciasis treatment zone, and five were located outside of that zone. Communities inside the treatment zone had been offered ivermectin treatment for two-five years, with a mean coverage of 81% of the eligible population (range 58–95%). We found 4.9% of mosquitoes were infected with any larval stage of W. bancrofti in the head or thorax in 362 dissections in the untreated villages compared to 4.7% infected in 549 dissections in the ivermectin treated villages (Mantel-Haenszel ChiSquare 0.02, P = 0.9). We concluded that ivermectin annual therapy for onchocerciasis has not interrupted transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti (the causative agent of LF in Nigeria).     

A possible case of spontaneous Loa loa encephalopathy associated with a glomerulopathy

Background

There is a danger that mass drug administration campaigns may fail to maintain adequate treatment coverage to achieve lymphatic filariasis elimination. Hence, additional measures to suppress transmission might be needed to ensure the success of the Global Program for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis.

Discussion

Vector control successfully eliminated lymphatic filariasis when implemented alone or with mass drug administration. Challenges to lymphatic filariasis elimination include uncertainty of the exact level and duration of microfilarial suppression required for elimination, the mobility of infected individuals, consistent non-participation of some infected individuals with mass drug administration, the possible development of anti-filarial drug resistance and treatment strategies in areas co-endemic with loasis. Integration of vector control with mass drug administration can address some of these challenges. The potential benefits of vector control would include: (1) the ability to suppress filariasis transmission without the need to identify all individual 'foci of infection'; (2) minimizing the risk of reestablishment of transmission from imported microfilaria positive individuals; and (3) decreasing the risk of dengue or malaria transmission where, respectively, Aedes or Anopheles are lymphatic filariasis vectors.

Summary

With adequate sustained treatment coverage, mass drug administration should meet the criteria for elimination of lymphatic filariasis. However, it may be difficult to sustain sufficiently high mass drug administration coverage to achieve lymphatic filariasis elimination in some areas, particularly, where Aedes species are the vectors. Since vector control was effective in controlling and even eliminating lymphatic filariasis transmission, integration of vector control with mass drug administration will ensure the sustainability of transmission suppression and thereby better ensure the success of national filariasis elimination programs. Although trials of some vector control interventions are needed, proven vector control strategies are ready for immediate integration with mass drug administration for many important vectors. Vector control is the only presently available additional lymphatic filariasis control measure with the potential for immediate implementation.     

Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus and prospects for the elimination of its vector, the blackfly Simulium neavei in the Mpamba-Nkusi focus in Western Uganda

The transmission of Onchocerca volvulus Leuckart (Spirudida: Onchocercidae) and the prospects of Simulium neavei Roubaud (Diptera: Simuliidae) vector elimination through ground larviciding were investigated in the Mpamba-Nkusi focus, western Uganda. Transmission levels and the initiated vector elimination activities were assessed to supplement the ongoing ivermectin mass distribution programme. Searches for breeding sites, adult fly catches, dissection of flies, river treatment with temephos (Abate) and a review of annual ivermectin treatment data were conducted. High levels of crab infestation with S. neavei sensu stricto immature stages were recorded; 57.9% and 100% for the Mpamba and Nyabugando river systems, respectively. The mean numbers of larvae/pupae per crab were 3.6 +/- 0.5 in the Mpamba and 20.6 +/- 1.8 in the Nyabugando systems. Pre-intervention mean biting densities were 39 and 32 flies/(man day) in 2001 and 2002, respectively, and an annual biting rate in 2001 of > 14 000. The bimodal biting pattern of S. neavei s.s. consisted of two peaks; one in the morning (09.00-10.00 hours) and one in the afternoon (14.00-15.00 hours) with a mid-day lull in biting. The infection/infective rates were 13.3%/2.8% and 16.6%/2.9% in the dissected parous flies from the Mpamba and Nyabugando river systems, respectively. Out of approximately 1000 parous flies, 129 and 109 were found to be harbouring infective larvae of Onchocerca volvulus in their heads from the Mpamba and Nyabugando river systems, respectively. In spite of the > 10 years of ivermectin treatment, at a mean coverage of 71.3%, infection remained relatively high. Ground larviciding with temephos (Abate) initiated in June and October 2002 had a significant impact. In the Mpamba river system there was a significant (P < 0.001) reduction in positive crabs from 57.9% in 2001 to 0.06% in 2003 and a decrease in the mean number of larvae/pupae per crab from 3.6 +/- 0.5 in 2001 to 0.0007 +/- 0.0001 (P < 0.002) in 2003. Similarly, in the Nyabugando river system, a significant (P < 0.001) reduction in crab infestation from 100% in 2001 to 0.06% in 2003 and a decrease in the mean number of larvae/pupae per crab from 20.6 +/- 1.8 in 2001 to 0.06 +/- 0.03 in 2003. Drastic reductions were observed in the mean number of biting flies from 3 flies/h in 2001 to 0 flies/h in 2003 and the annual biting rates fell from 14,235 flies/year in 2001 to only 730 flies/year in 2003. These data suggest that substantial progress towards the goal of S. neavei s.s. vector elimination has been made and this will enhance the ongoing ivermectin treatment in this isolated focus.     

Modeling Within-Host Effects of Drugs on Plasmodium falciparum Transmission and Prospects for Malaria Elimination

Achieving a theoretical foundation for malaria elimination will require a detailed understanding of the quantitative relationships between patient treatment-seeking behavior, treatment coverage, and the effects of curative therapies that also block Plasmodium parasite transmission to mosquito vectors. Here, we report a mechanistic, within-host mathematical model that uses pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data to simulate the effects of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) on Plasmodium falciparum transmission. To contextualize this model, we created a set of global maps of the fold reductions that would be necessary to reduce the malaria R_C (i.e. its basic reproductive number under control) to below 1 and thus interrupt transmission. This modeling was applied to low-transmission settings, defined as having a R₀<10 based on 2010 data. Our modeling predicts that treating 93–98% of symptomatic infections with an ACT within five days of fever onset would interrupt malaria transmission for ∼91% of the at-risk population of Southeast Asia and ∼74% of the global at-risk population, and lead these populations towards malaria elimination. This level of treatment coverage corresponds to an estimated 81–85% of all infected individuals in these settings. At this coverage level with ACTs, the addition of the gametocytocidal agent primaquine affords no major gains in transmission reduction. Indeed, we estimate that it would require switching ∼180 people from ACTs to ACTs plus primaquine to achieve the same transmission reduction as switching a single individual from untreated to treated with ACTs. Our model thus predicts that the addition of gametocytocidal drugs to treatment regimens provides very small population-wide benefits and that the focus of control efforts in Southeast Asia should be on increasing prompt ACT coverage. Prospects for elimination in much of Sub-Saharan Africa appear far less favorable currently, due to high rates of infection and less frequent and less rapid treatment.     

Mass Drug Administration for Trachoma: How Long Is Not Long Enough?

BackgroundBlinding trachoma is targeted for elimination by 2020 using the SAFE strategy (Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvements). Annual mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin is a cornerstone of this strategy. If baseline prevalence of clinical signs of trachomatous inflammation – follicular among 1-9 year-olds (TF1-9) is ≥10% but <30%, the World Health Organization guidelines are for at least 3 annual MDAs; if ≥30%, 5. We assessed the likelihood of achieving the global elimination target of TF1-9 <5% at 3 and 5 year evaluations using program reports.ConclusionsNumber of annual MDAs alone appears insufficient to predict program progress; more information on the effects of baseline prevalence, coverage, and underlying environmental and hygienic conditions is needed. Programs should not skip MDAs, and at prevalences >30%, 7 or more annual MDAs may be required to achieve the target. There are five years left before the 2020 deadline to eliminate blinding trachoma. Low endemic settings are poised to succeed in their elimination goals. However, newly-identified high prevalence districts warrant immediate inclusion in the global program. Intensified application of the SAFE strategy is needed in order to guarantee blinding trachoma elimination by 2020.     

Interruption of Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the Southern Chiapas Focus,México

Background

The Southern Chiapas focus of onchocerciasis in Southern Mexico represents one of the major onchocerciasis foci in Latin America. All 559 endemic communities of this focus have undergone semi-annual mass treatment with ivermectin since 1998. In 50 communities of this focus, ivermectin frequency shifted from twice to four times a year in 2003; an additional 113 communities were added to the quarterly treatment regimen in 2009 to achieve a rapid suppression of transmission.

Methodology/Principal findings

In-depth epidemiologic and entomologic assessments were performed in six sentinel communities (which had undergone 2 rounds of ivermectin treatment per year) and three extra-sentinel communities (which had undergone 4 rounds of ivermectin treatment per year). None of the 67,924 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected from this focus during the dry season of 2011 were found to contain parasite DNA when tested by polymerase chain reaction-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (PCR-ELISA), resulting in an upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (95%-ULCI) of the infective rate in the vectors of 0.06/2,000 flies examined. Serological assays testing for Onchocerca volvulus exposure conducted on 4,230 children 5 years of age and under (of a total population of 10,280 in this age group) revealed that 2/4,230 individuals were exposed to O. volvulus (0.05%; one sided 95% confidence interval = 0.08%).

Conclusions/Significance

The in-depth epidemiological and entomological findings from the Southern Chiapas focus meet the criteria for interruption of transmission developed by the international community.     

Modelling the ability of mass drug administration to interrupt soil-transmitted helminth transmission: Community-based deworming in Kenya as a case study

The World Health Organization has recommended the application of mass drug administration (MDA) in treating high prevalence neglected tropical diseases such as soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. MDA—which is safe, effective and inexpensive—has been widely applied to eliminate or interrupt the transmission of STHs in particular and has been offered to people in endemic regions without requiring individual diagnosis. We propose two mathematical models to investigate the impact of MDA on the mean number of worms in both treated and untreated human subpopulations. By varying the efficay of drugs, initial conditions of the models, coverage and frequency of MDA (both annual and biannual), we examine the dynamic behaviour of both models and the possibility of interruption of transmission. Both models predict that the interruption of transmission is possible if the drug efficacy is sufficiently high, but STH infection remains endemic if the drug efficacy is sufficiently low. In between these two critical values, the two models produce different predictions. By applying an additional round of biannual and annual MDA, we find that interruption of transmission is likely to happen in both cases with lower drug efficacy. In order to interrupt the transmission of STH or eliminate the infection efficiently and effectively, it is crucial to identify the appropriate efficacy of drug, coverage, frequency, timing and number of rounds of MDA.     

Control,Elimination, and Eradication of River Blindness: Scenarios,Timelines, and Ivermectin Treatment Needs in Africa

River blindness (onchocerciasis) causes severe itching, skin lesions, and vision impairment including blindness. More than 99% of all current cases are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, vector control and community-directed treatment with ivermectin have significantly reduced morbidity. Studies in Mali and Senegal proved the feasibility of elimination with ivermectin administration. The treatment goal is shifting from control to elimination in endemic African regions. Given limited resources, national and global policymakers need a rigorous analysis comparing investment options. For this, we developed scenarios for alternative treatment goals and compared treatment timelines and drug needs between the scenarios. Control, elimination, and eradication scenarios were developed with reference to current standard practices, large-scale studies, and historical data. For each scenario, the timeline when treatment is expected to stop at country level was predicted using a dynamical transmission model, and ivermectin treatment needs were predicted based on population in endemic areas, treatment coverage data, and the frequency of community-directed treatment. The control scenario requires community-directed treatment with ivermectin beyond 2045 with around 2.63 billion treatments over 2013–2045; the elimination scenario, until 2028 in areas where feasible, but beyond 2045 in countries with operational challenges, around 1.15 billion treatments; and the eradication scenario, lasting until 2040, around 1.30 billion treatments. The eradication scenario is the most favorable in terms of the timeline of the intervention phase and treatment needs. For its realization, strong health systems and political will are required to overcome epidemiological and political challenges.     

Proof-of-Principle of Onchocerciasis Elimination with Ivermectin Treatment in Endemic Foci in Africa: Final Results of a Study in Mali and Senegal

Background

Mass treatment with ivermectin controls onchocerciasis as a public health problem, but it was not known if it could also interrupt transmission and eliminate the parasite in endemic foci in Africa where vectors are highly efficient. A longitudinal study was undertaken in three hyperendemic foci in Mali and Senegal with 15 to 17 years of annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment in order to assess residual levels of infection and transmission, and test whether treatment could be safely stopped. This article reports the results of the final evaluations up to 5 years after the last treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Skin snip surveys were undertaken in 131 villages where 29,753 people were examined and 492,600 blackflies were analyzed for the presence of Onchocerca volvulus larva using a specific DNA probe. There was a declining trend in infection and transmission levels after the last treatment. In two sites the prevalence of microfilaria and vector infectivity rate were zero 3 to 4 years after the last treatment. In the third site, where infection levels were comparatively high before stopping treatment, there was also a consistent decline in infection and transmission to very low levels 3 to 5 years after stopping treatment. All infection and transmission indicators were below postulated thresholds for elimination.

Conclusion/Significance

The study has established the proof of principle that onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment is feasible in at least some endemic foci in Africa. The study results have been instrumental for the current evolution from onchocerciasis control to elimination in Africa.     

Accuracy of Coverage Survey Recall following an Integrated Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis,Schistosomiasis, and Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis

Background

Achieving target coverage levels for mass drug administration (MDA) is essential to elimination and control efforts for several neglected tropical diseases (NTD). To ensure program goals are met, coverage reported by drug distributors may be validated through household coverage surveys that rely on respondent recall. This is the first study to assess accuracy in such surveys.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Recall accuracy was tested in a series of coverage surveys conducted at 1, 6, and 12 months after an integrated MDA in Togo during which three drugs (albendazole, ivermectin, and praziquantel) were distributed. Drug distribution was observed during the MDA to ensure accurate recording of persons treated during the MDA. Information was obtained for 506, 1131, and 947 persons surveyed at 1, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Coverage (defined as the percentage of persons taking at least one of the MDA medications) within these groups was respectively 88.3%, 87.4%, and 80.0%, according to the treatment registers; it was 87.9%, 91.4% and 89.4%, according to survey responses. Concordance between respondents and registers on swallowing at least one pill was >95% at 1 month and >86% at 12 months; the lower concordance at 12 months was more likely due to difficulty matching survey respondents with the year-old treatment register rather than inaccurate responses. Respondents generally distinguished between pills similar in appearance; concordance for recall of which pills were taken was over 80% in each survey.

Significance

In this population, coverage surveys provided remarkably consistent coverage estimates for up to one year following an integrated MDA. It is not clear if similar consistency will be seen in other settings, however, these data suggest that in some settings coverage surveys might be conducted as much as one year following an MDA without compromising results. This might enable integration of post-MDA coverage measurement into large, multipurpose, periodic surveys, thereby conserving resources.