Understanding contributions of cohort effects to growth rates of fluctuating populations

1. Understanding contributions of cohort effects to variation in population growth of fluctuating populations is of great interest in evolutionary biology and may be critical in contributing towards wildlife and conservation management. Cohort-specific contributions to population growth can be evaluated using age-specific matrix models and associated elasticity analyses. 2. We developed age-specific matrix models for naturally fluctuating populations of stoats Mustela erminea in New Zealand beech forests. Dynamics and productivity of stoat populations in this environment are related to the 3-5 year masting cycle of beech trees and consequent effects on the abundance of rodents. 3. The finite rate of increase (lambda) of stoat populations in New Zealand beech forests varied substantially, from 1.98 during seedfall years to 0.58 during post-seedfall years. Predicted mean growth rates for stoat populations in continuous 3-, 4- or 5-year cycles are 0.85, 1.00 and 1.13. The variation in population growth was a consequence of high reproductive success of females during seedfall years combined with low survival and fertility of females of the post-seedfall cohort. 4. Variation in population growth was consistently more sensitive to changes in survival rates both when each matrix was evaluated in isolation and when matrices were linked into cycles. Relative contributions to variation in population growth from survival and fertility, especially in 0-1-year-old stoats, also depend on the year of the cycle and the number of transitional years before a new cycle is initiated. 5. Consequently, management strategies aimed at reducing stoat populations that may be best during one phase of the beech seedfall cycle may not be the most efficient during other phases of the cycle. We suggest that management strategies based on elasticities of vital rates need to consider how population growth rates vary so as to meet appropriate economic and conservation targets.     

Better alone? A demographic case study of the hemiparasite Castilleja tenuiflora (Orobanchaceae): A first approximation

Castilleja tenuiflora is a facultative root hemiparasitic plant that has colonized a disturbed lava field in central Mexico. To determine the effects of hemiparasitism on the population dynamics of the parasite, we identified a set of potential hosts and quantified their effects on the vital rates of C. tenuiflora during 2016–2018. Connections between the roots of the hemiparasite and the hosts were confirmed with a scanning electron microscope. Annual matrices considering two conditions (with and without potential hosts) were built based on vital rates for each year, and annual stochastic finite rate growth rates (λ_s) were calculated. Plants produced more reproductive structures with hosts than without hosts. A Life Table Response Experiment (LTRE) was performed to compare the contributions of vital rates between conditions. We identified 19 species of potential hosts for this generalist hemiparasite. Stochastic lambda with hosts λ_s = 1.02 (CI = 0.9999, 1.1) tended to be higher than without them λ_s = 0.9503 (CI = 0.9055, 0.9981). The highest elasticity values correspond to survival. LTRE indicated that the most important parameters are survival and fecundity; the total contribution of fecundity (0.0192) to the difference in growth was three times lower than that of survival (0.0603). Piqueria trinervia was the most abundant host, and C. tenuiflora had a higher lambda with it than with other species. Individuals can grow alone, but hosts can have a positive effect on the vital parameters of C. tenuiflora and on λ.     

Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods

Stochastic matrix models are frequently used by conservation biologists to measure the viability of species and to explore various management actions. Models are typically parameterized using two or more sets of estimated transition rates between age/size/stage classes. While standard methods exist for analyzing a single set of transition rates, a variety of methods have been employed to analyze multiple sets of transition rates. We review applications of stochastic matrix models to problems in conservation and use simulation studies to compare the performance of different analytic methods currently in use. We find that model conclusions are likely to be robust to the choice of parametric distribution used to model vital rate fluctuations over time. However, conclusions can be highly sensitive to the within-year correlation structure among vital rates, and therefore we suggest using analytical methods that provide a means of conducting a sensitivity analysis with respect to correlation parameters. Our simulation results also suggest that the precision of population viability estimates can be improved by using matrix models that incorporate environmental covariates in conjunction with experiments to estimate transition rates under a range of environmental conditions.     

Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1.  Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity.
2.  We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo ( Macropus rufus ), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates.
3.  Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate.
4.  Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates.
5.  Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c . 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c . 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.     

Analysis of interspecific competition in perennial plants using Life Table Response Experiments

The impact of interspecific competition is usually measured by its effect upon plant growth, neglecting impacts upon other stages of the life cycle such as fecundity which have a direct influence upon individual fitness and the asymptotic population growth rate of a population (λ). We used parameterized matrix models for three perennial plant species grown with and without interspecific competition to illustrate how the methodology of Life Table Response Experiments (LTRE) can be used to link any change in population dynamics to changes in any part of the life cycle. Plants were herbaceous grassland species grown for two years in a field experiment at Rothamsted Experimental Station, England. Interspecific competition reduced λ by over 90% in all species. Survival and growth were slightly affected by competition whereas plant fecundity was greatly reduced. Nearly all of the observed difference in λ between the competition treatments was explained by the fecundity terms, and more precisely by a large difference in the number of seeds, and a high sensitivity of λ to the germination rate. Whereas most competition studies focus on the measurement of change in individual fitness, our study illustrates how informative it is to take account not only of the effect of competition upon vital rates but also of how different vital rates affect population growth rate.     

The Polynomial Model in the Multivariate Analysis of Variance

Assuming that the independent variables (factors) are quantitative, there exist besides the coding schemes generally used for the multivariate analysis of variance (dummy-coded or effect-coded design matrices) the so-called polynomial models. The advantage of these polynomial models are the full rank design matrices, which allow a more comprehensible analysis, i.e. the unambiguous interpretation of tested hypotheses and simultaneous confidence intervals.     

生境片断化对濒危植物景东翅子树种群结构与动态的影响

生境的破坏及其片断化是生物多样性丧失的主要原因, 了解生境片断化对植物种群动态的影响十分必要。本文比较分析了不同大小生境片断(5 ha和15 ha)和连续森林中濒危植物景东翅子树(Pterospermum kingtungense)种群的结构与动态, 目的是明确影响景东翅子树种群动态的关键生活史阶段及其种群保护的目标, 为濒危植物种群保护和管理策略的制定提供科学依据。在上述3种生境中分别设立3个50 m × 100 m的1.5 ha固定样地, 调查景东翅子树所有个体的胸径(其中幼苗和幼树为地径)和高度、个体的存活及幼苗的补充情况。基于上述统计参数, 建立预测种群动态的Lefkovitch矩阵模型, 同时应用矩阵模型的弹性分析方法量化种群统计参数对种群增长率的相对贡献。结果表明: (1)在5 ha和15 ha生境片断及连续森林各1.5 ha的样地中, 2018年首次调查到景东翅子树的个体数分别为34、82和88株, 2019年复查时的个体数分别为33、82和87株。3种生境中景东翅子树种群的年龄结构均以幼树为主, 但5 ha生境片断森林缺乏幼苗和大树(包括成树和亚成树), 而15 ha生境片断森林幼苗较丰富。(2)在3种生境中景东翅子树种群的增长率等于1 (15 ha生境片断)或趋近于1 (5 ha生境片断和连续森林), 说明不同生境中的景东翅子树种群比较稳定, 这主要是因为其各生活史阶段的存活率均较高。(3)景东翅子树成树和亚成树阶段的存活率对种群增长率的贡献最大, 是影响其种群动态的关键生活史阶段。因此对于大树(包括成树和亚成树)的保护是极度濒危植物景东翅子树种群维持的关键。研究结果揭示小生境片断降低了景东翅子树种群的数量, 改变了种群的结构, 但对种群动态的影响效应尚未显现。因此对于这些小生境片断中濒危植物种群的保护和恢复是可行的, 也是有价值的。