Latitudinal variation in coral communities in eastern Australia: a qualitative biophysical model of factors regulating coral reefs

The processes underlying the distributional limits of both corals and coral reefs can be elucidated by examining coral communities at high latitudes. Coral-dominated communities in eastern Australia cover a latitudinal range of >2,500 km, from the northern Great Barrier Reef (11°S) to South West Rocks (31.5°S). Patterns of coral species richness from 11 locations showed a clear separation between the Great Barrier Reef and subtropical sites, with a further abrupt change at around 31°S. Differences in community structure between the Great Barrier Reef and more southern sites were mainly attributable to higher cover of massive corals, branching Acropora, dead coral and coralline algae on the Great Barrier Reef, and higher cover of macroalgae and bare rock at more southern sites. The absence of some major reef-building taxa (i.e., staghorn Acropora and massive Porites) from most subtropical sites coincided with the loss of reef accretion capacity. Despite high cover of hard corals in communities at up to 31°S, only Lord Howe Island contained areas of reef accretion south of the Great Barrier Reef. Factors that have been hypothesized to account for latitudinal changes in coral community structure include water temperature, aragonite saturation, light availability, currents and larval dispersal, competition between corals and other biota including macroalgae, reduced coral growth rates, and failure of coral reproduction or recruitment. These factors do not operate independently of each other, and they interact in complex ways.     

Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area,Australia

Aim

Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef.

Location

Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

Methods

Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR.

Results

Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs.

Main Conclusion

Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used to identify these reefs, which may play an important role in resilience of the GBR ecosystem to climate change.     

Coral bleaching: one disturbance too many for near-shore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef

The dynamic nature of coral communities can make it difficult to judge whether a reef system is resilient to the current disturbance regime. To address this question of resilience for near-shore coral communities of the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) a data set consisting of 350 annual observations of benthic community change was compiled from existing monitoring data. These data spanned the period 1985–2007 and were derived from coral reefs within 20 km of the coast. During years without major disturbance events, cover increase of the Acroporidae was much faster than it was for other coral families; a median of 11% per annum compared to medians of less than 4% for other coral families. Conversely, Acroporidae were more severely affected by cyclones and bleaching events than most other families. A simulation model parameterised with these observations indicated that while recovery rates of hard corals were sufficient to compensate for impacts associated with cyclones and crown-of-thorns starfish, the advent of mass bleaching has lead to a significant change in the composition of the community and a rapid decline in hard coral cover. Furthermore, if bleaching events continue to occur with the same frequency and severity as in the recent past, the model predicts that the cover of Acroporidae will continue to decline. Although significant cover of live coral remains on near-shore reefs, and recovery is observed during inter-disturbance periods, it appears that this system will not be resilient to the recent disturbance regime over the long term. Conservation strategies for coral reefs should focus on both mitigating local factors that act synergistically to increase the susceptibility of Acroporidae to climate change while promoting initiatives that maximise the recovery potential from inevitable disturbances.     

Patterns in the structural typology of benthic communities on two coral reefs of the central Great Barrier Reef

The morphological life-forms, that is to say, physiognomic-structural attributes, of two coral reef communities were used in a numerical analysis to determine the power of these attributes in recovering the underlying community structure. We used 17 attributes from the benthic communities at 6 reef slope sites on each of a midshelf and off-shore reef of the central Great Barrier Reef. These reefs had been previously well studied by traditional species-level means for several major taxonomic groups such as corals, fish and soft corals. Our multivariate analyses were able to recover broad patterns of between-reef affinity and discrete within-reef zonation patterns similar to those found in earlier studies, and in broad accord with the prevailing model of reef community structure, but with far greater efficacy. But perhaps more importantly, by placing all the benthos within the same context for the first time, our analyses were able to recover new patterns of community structure independent of the ones described earlier. This suggests that single-model explantations for the complex phenomena of coral reefs are likely to be inadequate.     

Patterns in the distribution of soft corals across the central Great Barrier Reef

Distribution patterns of soft coral genera were examined at 11 reefs situated in a broad transect from inshore to the Coral Sea in the central region of the Great Barrier Reef. Twenty-five genera representing the Orders Alcyonacea and Stolonifera were recorded, and the survey also included one genus of the Order Gorgonacea. Total living soft coral cover is greatest on outershelf reef slopes, and is often less than and inversely related to the cover by stony corals. Soft coral diversity is generally low on reef flats, where soft coral cover is low or nil except in protected, inshore areas. The most diverse assemblages occur on reef slopes in midshelf and outershelf areas, where Efflatounaria and nephtheid genera predominate, and widely distributed alcyoniid genera are common. These richer assemblages are less well represented in the Coral Sea, while innershelf reefs support a less diverse fauna of somewhat different generic composition. Distribution patterns of soft corals across the transect broadly match similar variations in the distributions of stony corals and fishes, inshore reefs being generally depauperate. Such variations across the continental shelf are closely associated with changes in prevailing environmental conditions, but further research will be required to elucidate the effects of environmental parameters on benthic community structure.     

Spatial patterns in benthic communities and the dynamics of a mosaic ecosystem on the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

The benthic communities of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have been characterized as a mosaic with patches at scales of tens to hundreds of kilometres formed by clusters of reefs with comparable environmental settings and histories of disturbance. We use data sets of changes in cover of abundant benthic organisms to examine the relationship between community composition and the dynamics of this mosaic. Our data were compiled from seven annual video surveys of permanent transects on the north-east flanks of up to 52 reefs at different shelf positions throughout most of the GBR. Classification analysis of these data sets identified three distinct groups of reefs, the first dominated by poritid hard corals and alcyoniid soft corals, the second by hard corals of the genus Acropora, and the third by xeniid soft corals. These groups underwent different amounts of change in cover during the period of our study. As acroporan corals are fast growing but susceptible to mortality due to predators and wave action, the group of reefs dominated by this genus displayed rapid rates of growth and loss of cover. In contrast, cover in the remaining groups changed very slowly or remained stable. Some evidence suggests that competition for space may limit growth of acroporan corals and thus rates of change in the group dominated by xeniid soft corals. These contrasting patterns imply that susceptibility to, and recovery from, disturbances such as cyclones, predators, and bleaching events will differ among these groups of reefs.     

Relationships between structural complexity,coral traits,and reef fish assemblages

With the ongoing loss of coral cover and the associated flattening of reef architecture, understanding the links between coral habitat and reef fishes is of critical importance. Here, we investigate whether considering coral traits and functional diversity provides new insights into the relationship between structural complexity and reef fish communities, and whether coral traits and community composition can predict structural complexity. Across 157 sites in Seychelles, Maldives, the Chagos Archipelago, and Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, we find that structural complexity and reef zone are the strongest and most consistent predictors of reef fish abundance, biomass, species richness, and trophic structure. However, coral traits, diversity, and life histories provided additional predictive power for models of reef fish assemblages, and were key drivers of structural complexity. Our findings highlight that reef complexity relies on living corals—with different traits and life histories—continuing to build carbonate skeletons, and that these nuanced relationships between coral assemblages and habitat complexity can affect the structure of reef fish assemblages. Seascape-level estimates of structural complexity are rapid and cost effective with important implications for the structure and function of fish assemblages, and should be incorporated into monitoring programs.     

Regional and local variability in recovery of shallow coral communities: Moorea,French Polynesia and central Great Barrier Reef

Coral communities at Moorea, French Polynesia, and on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, were severely depleted by disturbances early in the 1980s. Corals were killed by the predatory starfish Acanthaster planci, by cyclones, and/or by depressed sea level. This study compares benthic community structure and coral population structures on three disturbed reefs (Vaipahu-Moorea; Rib and John Brewer Reefs-GBR) and one undisturbed reef (Davies Reef-GBR) in 1987–89. Moorea barrier reefs had been invaded by tall macrophytes Turbinaria ornata and Sargassum sp., whereas the damaged GBR reefs were colonised by a diverse mixture of short macrophytes, turfs and coralline algae. The disturbed areas had broadly similar patterns of living and dead standing coral, and similar progress in recolonisation, which suggests their structure may converge towards that of undisturbed Davies Reef. Corals occupying denuded areas at Vaipahu, Rib and John Brewer were small (median diameter 5 cm in each case) and sparse (means 4–8 m^-2) compared to longer established corals at Davies Reef (median diameter 9 cm; mean 18 m^-2). At Moorea, damselfish and sea urchins interacted with corals in ways not observed in the GBR reefs. Territories of the damselfish Stegastes nigricans covered much of Moorea's shallow reef top. They had significantly higher diversity and density of post-disturbance corals than areas outside of territories, suggesting that the damselfish exerts some influences on coral community dynamics. Sea urchins on Moorea (Diadema setosum Echinometra mathaei, Echinotrix calamaris) were causing widespread destruction of dead standing coral skeletons. Overall, it appears that the future direction and speed of change in the communities will be explicable more in terms of local than regional processes.     

Relative Importance of Coral Cover,Habitat Complexity and Diversity in Determining the Structure of Reef Fish Communities

The structure of coral reef habitat has a pronounced influence on the diversity, composition and abundance of reef-associated fishes. However, the particular features of the habitat that are most critical are not always known. Coral habitats can vary in many characteristics, notably live coral cover, topographic complexity and coral diversity, but the relative effects of these habitat characteristics are often not distinguished. Here, we investigate the strength of the relationships between these habitat features and local fish diversity, abundance and community structure in the lagoon of Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. In a spatial comparison using sixty-six 2m² quadrats, fish species richness, total abundance and community structure were examined in relation to a wide range of habitat variables, including topographic complexity, habitat diversity, coral diversity, coral species richness, hard coral cover, branching coral cover and the cover of corymbose corals. Fish species richness and total abundance were strongly associated with coral species richness and cover, but only weakly associated with topographic complexity. Regression tree analysis showed that coral species richness accounted for most of the variation in fish species richness (63.6%), while hard coral cover explained more variation in total fish abundance (17.4%), than any other variable. In contrast, topographic complexity accounted for little spatial variation in reef fish assemblages. In degrading coral reef environments, the potential effects of loss of coral cover and topographic complexity are often emphasized, but these findings suggest that reduced coral biodiversity may ultimately have an equal, or greater, impact on reef-associated fish communities.     

Retention of Habitat Complexity Minimizes Disassembly of Reef Fish Communities following Disturbance: A Large-Scale Natural Experiment

High biodiversity ecosystems are commonly associated with complex habitats. Coral reefs are highly diverse ecosystems, but are under increasing pressure from numerous stressors, many of which reduce live coral cover and habitat complexity with concomitant effects on other organisms such as reef fishes. While previous studies have highlighted the importance of habitat complexity in structuring reef fish communities, they employed gradient or meta-analyses which lacked a controlled experimental design over broad spatial scales to explicitly separate the influence of live coral cover from overall habitat complexity. Here a natural experiment using a long term (20 year), spatially extensive (∼115,000 kms²) dataset from the Great Barrier Reef revealed the fundamental importance of overall habitat complexity for reef fishes. Reductions of both live coral cover and habitat complexity had substantial impacts on fish communities compared to relatively minor impacts after major reductions in coral cover but not habitat complexity. Where habitat complexity was substantially reduced, species abundances broadly declined and a far greater number of fish species were locally extirpated, including economically important fishes. This resulted in decreased species richness and a loss of diversity within functional groups. Our results suggest that the retention of habitat complexity following disturbances can ameliorate the impacts of coral declines on reef fishes, so preserving their capacity to perform important functional roles essential to reef resilience. These results add to a growing body of evidence about the importance of habitat complexity for reef fishes, and represent the first large-scale examination of this question on the Great Barrier Reef.     

Patterns in the distribution of the crinoid community at Davies Reef on the central Great Barrier Reef

The crinoid community of Davies Reef, a midshelf reef in the central Great Barrier Reef, was systematically sampled in all major crinoid habitats. A total of 294 individuals of 27 species-level taxa was found in 25 sites across the reef. Of these 27 taxa, 20 were confidently assigned to known species. The 25 sitesx27 taxa matrix was subjected to an array of pattern extraction and diagnostic techniques — numerical classification, ordination and minimum spanning trees — to elucidate the structure of the community. These analyses revealed a consistent structure characterized by a species-rich ensemble around the periphery of the reef which was attenuated towards the inside of the reef. This structure contrasts strongly with the patterns seen in other major reef communities, such as hard and soft corals, fish or sponges. In these communities, different parts of the reef are characterized by distinctive sets of species, a depthbased zonation of the communities is evident, and the fore-reef slope typically supports a different ensemble from the back-reef slope. We conclude that the crinoid community offers a significant opportunity to observe the coral reef ecosystem from a different perspective.     

Patterns in the use of space by benthic communities on two coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef

A rapid benthic line-transect survey method for use by non-specialist observers is described. At both Davies Reef (mid-continental shelf) and Myrmidon Reef (outer-continental shelf) in the central Great Barrier Reef a set of 6 sites of varying depths on the reef flat, crest and slope were sampled using this method. At least 10 contiguous 10 m transects were made at each site. Benthic organisms were recorded as life forms with categories based on both high level taxa and morphologies, and including scleractinian corals, alcyonarians, sponges, algae and others. Percentage cover data for 19 benthic categories are presented for all sites. Coral cover on both reefs is high on the crest and slope but low on the reef flat. At all sites the cover of soft corals and sponges is much less than cover of hard corals and algae. Abundances of soft corals and sponges increase with depth. Analysis of gaps between hard corals show that many colonies grow close to each other (<1 cm)even when total coral cover is low.     

Parrotfish predation on massive Porites on the Great Barrier Reef

Parrotfish grazing scars on coral colonies were quantified across four reef zones at Lizard Island, Northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The abundance of parrotfish grazing scars was highest on reef flat and crest, with massive Porites spp. colonies having more parrotfish grazing scars than all other coral species combined. Massive Porites was the only coral type positively selected for grazing by parrotfishes in all four reef zones. The density of parrotfish grazing scars on massive Porites spp., and the rate of new scar formation, was highest on the reef crest and flat, reflecting the lower massive Porites cover and higher parrotfish abundance in these habitats. Overall, it appears that parrotfish predation pressure on corals could affect the abundance of preferred coral species, especially massive Porites spp, across the reef gradient. Parrotfish predation on corals may have a more important role on the GBR reefs than previously thought.     

Habitat dynamics,marine reserve status,and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community‐level phase shifts from coral‐ to algal‐dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No‐take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio‐economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post‐disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post‐disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional‐scale population persistence and recovery.     

Aspects of the ecology of the coral-eating starfish Acanthaster planci

In the central region of the Great Barrier Reef, Acanthaster planci eats its own disk area of coral each day. At the southern end of the reef lagoon populations of A. planci eat substantially less than this amount of coral per day. Branching and plate corals are preferred food species and massive and encrusting forms are rejected while the preferred food species are available. Only when branching and plate forms on a reef have been consumed will A. planci attack massive and encrusting species. On Australian reefs preferred food species form between 70–99% of the coral cover.
On the Great Barrier Reef A. planci spawns in January and juveniles settle in the top 3 m of water on the windward edge of reefs or on isolated patch reefs behind the main reef. Intolerance of wave attack forces the growing starfish to migrate into deeper water. Lateral movements, probably induced by shortage of living coral in deep water, bring the starfish around the ends of the reef to the leeward side. Here they destroy most of the living coral.
It is suggested that the visual impact of A. planci on reefs of the Indo-Pacific region is related to the composition of the coral fauna. Reefs with a high proportion of preferred food species will be severely damaged while those with faunas composed mainly of massive and encrusting forms will not be altered greatly by starfish predation.
Work on larval development of A. planci carried out by Henderson & Lucas, 1971 showed that metamorphosis took place only at water temperatures of 28^o -29^o C. This suggests that the A. planci plague on the Great Barrier Reef will not spread south of latitude 20^o S (29^o C isotherm in January).     

Great Barrier Reef butterflyfish community structure: the role of shelf position and benthic community type

The extent to which fish communities are structured by spatial variability in coral reef habitats versus stochastic processes (such as larval supply) is very important in predicting responses to sustained and ongoing habitat degradation. In this study, butterflyfish and benthic communities were surveyed annually over 15 years on 47 reefs (spanning 12° of latitude) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Spatial autocorrelation in the structure of butterflyfish communities versus key differences in reef habitats was investigated to assess the extent to which the structure of these fish communities is influenced by habitat conditions. Benthic communities on each of the 47 reefs were broadly categorised as either: 1. Poritidae/Alcyoniidae, 2. mixed taxa, 3. soft coral or 4. Acropora-dominated habitats. These habitat types most reflected increases in water clarity and wave exposure, moving across the GBR shelf from coastal to outer-shelf environments. In turn, each habitat type also supported very distinct butterflyfish communities. Hard coral feeders were always the dominant butterflyfish species in each community type. However, the numerically dominant species changed according to habitat type, representing spatial replacement of species across the shelf. This study reveals clear and consistent differences in the structure of fish communities among reefs associated with marked differences in habitat structure.     

Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef

Climate change is now considered the greatest long-term threat to coral reefs, with some future change inevitable despite mitigation efforts. Managers must therefore focus on supporting the natural resilience of reefs, requiring that resilient reefs and reef regions be identified. We develop a framework for assessing resilience and trial it by applying the framework to target management responses to climate change on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The framework generates a resilience score for a site based on the evaluation of 19 differentially weighted indicators known or thought to confer resilience to coral reefs. Scores are summed, and sites within a region are ranked in terms of (1) their resilience relative to the other sites being assessed, and (2) the extent to which managers can influence their resilience. The framework was applied to 31 sites in Keppel Bay of the southern Great Barrier Reef, which has a long history of disturbance and recovery. Resilience and ‘management influence potential’ were both found to vary widely in Keppel Bay, informing site selection for the staged implementation of resilience-based management strategies. The assessment framework represents a step towards making the concept of resilience operational to reef managers and conservationists. Also, it is customisable, easy to teach and implement and effective in building support among local communities and stakeholders for management responses to climate change.     

Maintenance of fish diversity on disturbed coral reefs

Habitat perturbations play a major role in shaping community structure; however, the elements of disturbance-related habitat change that affect diversity are not always apparent. This study examined the effects of habitat disturbances on species richness of coral reef fish assemblages using annual surveys of habitat and 210 fish species from 10 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Over a period of 11 years, major disturbances, including localised outbreaks of crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster planci), severe storms or coral bleaching, resulted in coral decline of 46–96% in all the 10 reefs. Despite declines in coral cover, structural complexity of the reef framework was retained on five and species richness of coral reef fishes maintained on nine of the disturbed reefs. Extensive loss of coral resulted in localised declines of highly specialised coral-dependent species, but this loss of diversity was more than compensated for by increases in the number of species that feed on the epilithic algal matrix (EAM). A unimodal relationship between areal coral cover and species richness indicated species richness was greatest at approximately 20% coral cover declining by 3–4 species (6–8% of average richness) at higher and lower coral cover. Results revealed that declines in coral cover on reefs may have limited short-term impact on the diversity of coral reef fishes, though there may be fundamental changes in the community structure of fishes.     

Disturbance and the structure of coral reef fish communities on the reef slope

Three levels of physical disturbance were applied to corals in permanent 10x10 m quadrats along a section of fringing reef at Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef to investigate the response of fish assemblages. Tabular and corymbose corals were overturned and left in situ, reducing total hard coral cover from ˜55% to ˜47%, ˜43%, and ˜34%. Despite pre-existing associations with benthic cover, all fish groups examined (pomacentrids, labrids, chaetodontids, and acanthurids) were resistent to benthic disturbances at the level and scale at which they were applied. Partial Mantel's tests, in combination with partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis enabled spatial and temporal variation to be factored out from experimental effects. Most of the variation in the fish community could be assigned to spatio-temporal variables, indicating that spatial structure over the reef landscape may moderate localised disturbance effects. This study indicates that coral reef fish assemblages may be more resistant to disturbance than many correlative studies would suggest, and highlights a need for further information on levels and scales of natural habitat disturbance in order to apply a structured approach to the experimental investigation of the importance of habitat in structuring coral-reef fish assemblages.     

The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change

Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central‐southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid‐century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.