Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th‐century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st‐century climate change constitutes a new—but so far unevaluated—threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high‐resolution topography and fine‐scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso‐ and microclimate scales. We show that climate‐only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th‐century destruction is evident—more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation—and 21st‐century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.     

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.     

Investigating uncertainties in zooplankton composition shifts under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Sea

Ensemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. The amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. In the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food‐web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. Calibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface Mediterranean Sea. We identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. Our results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. Presence‐only and presence–absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. Nestedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. Our projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food‐web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.     

Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages

Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070–2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near‐pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species’ distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate‐induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present‐day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high‐flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change.     

Predicting community rank‐abundance distributions under current and future climates

Understanding influences of environmental change on biodiversity requires consideration of more than just species richness. Here we present a novel framework for understanding possible changes in species' abundance structures within communities under climate change. We demonstrate this using comprehensive survey and environmental data from 1748 woody plant communities across southeast Queensland, Australia, to model rank‐abundance distributions (RADs) under current and future climates. Under current conditions, the models predicted RADs consistent with the region's dominant vegetation types. We demonstrate that under a business as usual climate scenario, total abundance and richness may decline in subtropical rainforest and shrubby heath, and increase in dry sclerophyll forests. Despite these opposing trends, we predicted evenness in the distribution of abundances between species to increase in all vegetation types. By assessing the information rich, multidimensional RAD, we show that climate‐driven changes to community abundance structures will likely vary depending on the current composition and environmental context.     

Context‐dependent functional dispersion across similar ranges of trait space covered by intertidal rocky shore communities

Functional diversity is intimately linked with community assembly processes, but its large‐scale patterns of variation are often not well understood. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal changes in multiple trait dimensions (“trait space”) along vertical intertidal environmental stress gradients and across a landscape scale. We predicted that the range of the trait space covered by local assemblages (i.e., functional richness) and the dispersion in trait abundances (i.e., functional dispersion) should increase from high‐ to low‐intertidal elevations, due to the decreasing influence of environmental filtering. The abundance of macrobenthic algae and invertebrates was estimated at four rocky shores spanning ca. 200 km of the coast over a 36‐month period. Functional richness and dispersion were contrasted against matrix‐swap models to remove any confounding effect of species richness on functional diversity. Random‐slope models showed that functional richness and dispersion significantly increased from high‐ to low‐intertidal heights, demonstrating that under harsh environmental conditions, the assemblages comprised similar abundances of functionally similar species (i.e., trait convergence), while that under milder conditions, the assemblages encompassed differing abundances of functionally dissimilar species (i.e., trait divergence). According to the Akaike information criteria, the relationship between local environmental stress and functional richness was persistent across sites and sampling times, while functional dispersion varied significantly. Environmental filtering therefore has persistent effects on the range of trait space covered by these assemblages, but context‐dependent effects on the abundances of trait combinations within such range. Our results further suggest that natural and/or anthropogenic factors might have significant effects on the relative abundance of functional traits, despite that no trait addition or extinction is detected.     

Biotic filtering and mass effects in small shrub patches: is arthropod community structure predictable based on the quality of the vegetation?

1. Community assembly is affected by four processes: dispersal, filtering effects (selection), ecological drift and evolution. The role of filtering relative to dispersal and drift should decline with patch size, hampering possibilities to predict which organisms will be observed within small‐sized patches. However, vegetation structure is known to have a marked impact on species assemblages, and plant quality may act as a biotic filter. This challenges the assumption of unpredictable species assemblages in small‐sized vegetation patches. 2. Using 32 stands of five shrub species in south‐west Finland, this study investigated whether biotic filtering effects caused by patch‐forming plants are strong enough to overcome the mixing of mobile arthropod assemblages across small patches. 3. Stochastic variation did not hide the signals of biotic filtering and dispersal in the small shrub patches. Habitat richness around the patches explained a three times larger share of variation in the species composition than did the identity of the patch‐forming plant, but it had less effect on the abundance of arthropods. A radius of 50–100 m around a patch explained the species composition best. 4. Abundance patterns varied between the feeding guilds; the patch‐forming shrub influenced the abundances of detritivores and leaf‐feeding herbivores, whereas the abundances of flower‐visiting herbivores appeared to track the flowering phenology of the plants. Shrub identity had little effect on omnivores or predators. Predator abundances were correlated with the abundance of potential prey. 5. The results of this study suggest that community composition within a vegetation patch may be predictable even if dispersal overrides local filtering effects, as suggested by the mass‐effects paradigm.     

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change

Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep‐sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal‐to‐century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091–2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006–2015). Our projections use multi‐model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep‐water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold‐water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide.     

Does Coastal Foredune Stabilization with Ammophila arenaria Restore Plant and Arthropod Communities in Southeastern Australia?

In this study we examine whether stabilization of denuded coastal foredunes in southeastern Australia with the exotic grass species Ammophila arenaria (marram grass) restores plant and ground‐active arthropod assemblages characteristic of undisturbed foredunes. Vascular plants and arthropods were sampled from foredunes that had been stabilized with marram grass in 1982, and from foredunes with no obvious anthropogenic disturbance (control dunes). All arthropods collected were sorted to Order, and ants (81.5% of all specimens) were further sorted to morphospecies. Abundance within arthropod Orders, as well as richness, composition, and structure of the plant and ant assemblages from control and stabilized dunes, were compared. The abundance of Diptera was significantly greater on stabilized dunes, while the abundance of Isopoda was significantly greater on control dunes. There were no significant differences in morphospecies richness or composition of ant assemblages on the two dunes types, although some differences in the abundances of individual morphospecies were observed. By contrast, stabilized dunes exhibited lower plant species richness and highly significant differences in plant species composition, due mainly to the large projected foliage cover of marram grass. The study revealed that after 12 years, the vegetation composition and structure of stabilized dunes was still dominated by marram grass and, as a result, invertebrate assemblages had not been restored to those characteristic of undisturbed foredunes.     

A preliminary investigation of temporal patterns in semiarid ant communities: Variation with habitat type

Abstract This study reports on preliminary findings of habitat‐contingent temporal variability in ant assemblages in Purnululu National Park in northern Australia's semiarid tropics, by sampling at the end of the dry season (October 2004) and the end of the wet season (April 2005). Six grids of 15 pitfall traps were established in each of the spinifex, sandplain and gorge habitats. Community composition was dominated by behaviourally dominant ants (Iridomyrmex spp.) and climate specialists (Melophorus and Meranoplus spp.). Ant activity was higher in the wet season sampling period, with greater species richness and abundance. Interestingly, temporal variation in ant assemblage richness, abundance and composition varied markedly with habitat type. While there were large differences between sampling periods for the spinifex and sandplain habitat, this was not the case in the gorges. These temporal changes in ant assemblages are postulated to be linked with major environmental differences between the two sampling periods, driven by seasonal climatic conditions. It is likely that these changes influenced the ant assemblages through species differences in physiological tolerance levels, ecological requirements and competitive ability. This study demonstrates the need, in highly seasonal environments, to consider the temporal context of studies in relation to habitat type, particularly when undertaking biodiversity surveys and monitoring.     

Non-neutral community dynamics: empirical predictions for ecosystem function and diversity from linearized consumer–resource interactions

A general model of linearized species interactions, essentially Lotka–Volterra theory, applied to questions of biodiversity has previously been shown to be a powerful tool for understanding local species–abundance patterns and community responses to environmental change for a single trophic level. Here this approach is extended to predict community composition and responses to environmental changes in trophically structured systems. We show how resource and consumer species richness and their relative abundances vary with the means and variances in enrichment level and strengths of intra- and interspecific interactions. Also demonstrated are the responses of local resource and consumer species richness to the global species pools at both trophic levels, as well as the covariation with net resource productivity. These predictions for resource and consumer specific responses to changes in environmental enrichment and global biodiversity are directly testable.     

Disequilibrial island turnover dynamics: a 17‐year record of Bahamian ants

Aim To document long‐term rates of immigration, extinction and turnover in insular ant faunas and evaluate the relative impacts of recent hurricane activity and climate change. Location Small islands in the Exuma Cays, Andros and Abaco archipelagos of the Bahamas. Methods I surveyed the ant faunas of > 140 small islands in three archipelagos of the Bahamas over several multi‐year periods, spanning up to 17 years, by recording species attracted to baits. Immigrations, extinctions and species turnover were documented, as were the relative abundances of species. Four major hurricanes affected the study archipelagos in the second decade of this study. Results Rates of ant turnover were generally low among archipelagos and time periods. Immigrations outnumbered extinctions in the first decade of this study, although this pattern was reversed in the second decade. General physical characteristics of the islands were not significant predictors of the occurrence of extinctions. The relative abundance (based on proportion of baits occupied) of persistent populations of the two most common species both declined in the second decade, indicating, along with higher extinction rates, a generalized decline in these insular ant faunas. Main conclusions The available evidence suggests that hurricanes were not directly responsible for the observed declines in the ant faunas. Regional changes in insular ant species richness, however, are correlated with generalized North Atlantic hurricane activity over the last half century. Indirect effects of hurricanes on the vegetation of these islands, such as increased herbivory and possible decreased nutrient availability, along with a long‐term (quarter century) increase in temperature and decline in rainfall, are possible contributing factors to the changing ant turnover dynamics.     

Projected impacts of climate warming on the functional and phylogenetic components of coastal Mediterranean fish biodiversity

Climate warming affects biodiversity distribution across all ecosystems. However, beyond changes in species richness, impacts on other biodiversity components are still overlooked, particularly in the marine realm. Here we forecasted the potential effect of climate warming on the phylogenetic and functional components of coastal Mediterranean fish biodiversity. To do so, we used species distribution models to project the potential distribution of 230 coastal fish species by the end of the 21st century based on the IPCC A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. From these projections, we assessed the changes in phylogenetic (PD) and functional diversity (FD) of fish assemblages at multiple spatial scales using a dated molecular phylogeny and an extensive functional trait database. At the scale of the entire Mediterranean Sea, the projected extinctions of 40 coastal fish species would lead to a concomitant erosion of PD and FD (13.6 and 3%, respectively). However, a null model revealed that species loss at this scale would not lead to a disproportionate erosion of PD and FD. Similar results were found when considering fish assemblages at the grid cell scale. Indeed, at this scale, the projected changes in species richness would lead to unexpected losses of PD and FD for localized and small areas only. A disproportionate erosion of PD under climate warming was only forecasted when analysing fish assemblages at an intermediate spatial scale, namely the Mediterranean marine ecoregions. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when assessing potential impacts of climate warming on the multiple components marine biodiversity.     

Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi‐natural ecosystems

Aim Despite the increasing pace of urbanization, little is known about how this process affects biodiversity globally. We investigate macroecological patterns of bird assemblages in urbanized areas relative to semi‐natural ecosystems. Location World‐wide. Methods We use a database of quantitative bird surveys to compare key assemblage structure parameters for plots in urbanized and semi‐natural ecosystems controlling for spatial autocorrelation and survey methodology. We use the term ‘urbanized’ instead of ‘urban’ ecosystems as many of the plots were not located in the centre of towns but in remnant habitat patches within conurbations. Results Some macroecological relationships were conserved in urbanized landscapes. Species–area, species–abundance and species–biomass relationships did not differ significantly between urbanized and non‐urbanized environments. However, there were differences in the relationships between productivity and assemblage structure. In forests, species richness increased with productivity; in both forests and open habitats, the evenness of species abundances declined as productivity increased. Among urbanized plots, instead, both species richness and the evenness of species abundances were independent of variation in productivity. Main conclusions Remnant habitats within urbanized areas are subject to many ecological alterations, yet key macroecological patterns differ remarkably little in urbanized versus non‐urbanized plots. Our results support the need for increased conservation activities in urbanized landscapes, particularly given the additional benefits of local experiences of biodiversity for the human population. With increasing urbanization world‐wide, broad‐scale efforts are needed to understand and manage the effects of this driver of change on biodiversity.     

Floodplain ants show a stronger response to an extensive flood than to variations in fallen‐timber load

Understanding how species respond to differences in resource availability is critical to managing biodiversity under the increasing pressures associated with climate change and growing human populations. Over the last century, the floodplain forests of Australia's largest river system, the Murray‐Darling Basin, have been much affected by intensive harvesting of timber and firewood, and increasingly stressed by river regulation and, recently, an extended drought. Fallen timber – logs and shed branches – is known to play a key role in the ecology of several important species on these floodplains. Here, we monitored the response of the ant assemblages of a floodplain forest along the Murray River to a large‐scale (34 ha) experimental manipulation of fallen‐timber load (0 to 80 t ha^?1) over 4 years. The forest was subjected to an incidental, extensive flood that enabled us to examine how two important stressors (timber removal and river regulation) affect ant assemblages. Ants showed little response to the proximity of fallen timber within plots, prior to the flood, or to different loads among plots, unlike other floodplain biota. After the flood, both ant abundance and species richness increased and species composition changed. However, this increase in species richness after flooding was less pronounced in plots with higher amounts of fallen timber. Managing river red gum forest using a mosaic of flood regimes, more representative of historical conditions, is likely to be the most effective way to maintain and enhance the diversity of ants and other biota on these important floodplains.     

Fish assemblage–environment relationships suggest differential trophic responses to heavy metal contamination

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Biotic interactions boost spatial models of species richness

Biotic interactions are known to affect the composition of species assemblages via several mechanisms, such as competition and facilitation. However, most spatial models of species richness do not explicitly consider inter‐specific interactions. Here, we test whether incorporating biotic interactions into high‐resolution models alters predictions of species richness as hypothesised. We included key biotic variables (cover of three dominant arctic‐alpine plant species) into two methodologically divergent species richness modelling frameworks – stacked species distribution models (SSDM) and macroecological models (MEM) – for three ecologically and evolutionary distinct taxonomic groups (vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens). Predictions from models including biotic interactions were compared to the predictions of models based on climatic and abiotic data only. Including plant–plant interactions consistently and significantly lowered bias in species richness predictions and increased predictive power for independent evaluation data when compared to the conventional climatic and abiotic data based models. Improvements in predictions were constant irrespective of the modelling framework or taxonomic group used. The global biodiversity crisis necessitates accurate predictions of how changes in biotic and abiotic conditions will potentially affect species richness patterns. Here, we demonstrate that models of the spatial distribution of species richness can be improved by incorporating biotic interactions, and thus that these key predictor factors must be accounted for in biodiversity forecasts.     

Ants, altitude and change in the northern Cape Floristic Region

Aim Climate‐modelling exercises have demonstrated that the Cape Floristic Region is highly sensitive to climate change and will apparently lose much of its northern limits over the next few decades. Because there is little monitoring of diversity in this area, ant assemblage structure was investigated within the main vegetation types in the Greater Cederberg Biodiversity Corridor. In particular, we sought to determine how ant assemblage structure differs between the main vegetation types, how restricted ants – and in particular the major myrmecochores – are to the major vegetation types, and which environmental variables might underlie differences in the ant assemblages and in the specificity of species to particular areas. Location Northern Cape Floristic Region, Western Cape, South Africa. Methods Sampling was undertaken during October 2002 and March 2003 across an altitudinal gradient ranging from sea level (Lambert's Bay) to c. 2000 m a.s.l. (Sneeukop, Cederberg) and down again to 500 m a.s.l. (Wupperthal) in the Western Cape, South Africa. Pitfall traps were used to sample ants at 17 altitudinal bands, stretching over three vegetation types (Strandveld, Mountain Fynbos and Succulent Karoo). Biotic and abiotic environmental variables were collected at each sampling site. Generalized linear models were used to determine the relationships between species richness, density, abundance and the abundance of the major myrmecochores, and the environmental variables. Redundancy analysis was used to determine the relationship between ant assemblage structure and the environmental variables. The Indicator Value Method was used to identify characteristic ant species for each vegetation type and altitudinal site. Results Temperature explained significant proportions of the variation in species density and abundance, and, together with area and several vegetation variables, contributed significantly to the separation of the assemblages in the major vegetation types and biomes. Four major myrmecochores were identified [Anoplolepis sp. (cf. custodiens), Anoplolepis sp. (cf. steinergroeveri), Camponotus niveosetosus, Tetramorium quadrispinosum]. The abundances of the two Anoplolepis species were related to vegetation variables, while the abundance of the other two species showed opposite relationships with temperature variables. Fourteen ant species were characteristic of certain vegetation types and altitudes. Several of these species contributed to the differences between the assemblages. Main conclusions There are likely to be substantial and complex changes to ant assemblages as climates change in the northern Cape Floristic Region. Moreover, the importance of ants for ecosystem functioning suggests that these responses are not only likely to be a response solely to vegetation changes, but might also precipitate vegetation changes. The changes that are predicted to take place in the next 50 years in the Cape Floristic Region could be substantially exacerbated by such synergistic effects, which have major implications for long‐term conservation plans. Ongoing monitoring of this transect will reveal the nature and pace of the change as it unfolds.     

Effect of an exotic Acacia (Fabaceae) on ant assemblages in South African fynbos

Ant assemblages in South African fynbos invaded by Acacia saligna were compared with ant assemblages in undisturbed fynbos to determine whether ant assemblages change under exotic plants that produce ant‐dispersed seeds. Overall, no differences in the species richness of ants were found between weed‐infested and native sites but there were differences in both ant abundance and the composition of the ant assemblage. Ants were much less abundant in weed‐infested sites. To investigate whether changes in ant assemblages in weed‐infested areas could be due to a preference for native seeds over exotic seeds, seeds of a range of species were offered to ants and ants that handled seeds were identified. Thirteen species of ants handled A. saligna seeds and there was no evidence to suggest that the ant assemblage as a whole preferred native seeds to A. saligna seeds. Hypotheses that may account for this pattern are discussed.