Ecosystem Services in Life Cycle Assessment while Encouraging Techno‐Ecological Synergies

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has enabled consideration of environmental impacts beyond the narrow boundary of traditional engineering methods. This reduces the chance of shifting impacts outside the system boundary. However, sustainability also requires that supporting ecosystems are not adversely affected and remain capable of providing goods and services for supporting human activities. Conventional LCA does not account for this role of nature, and its metrics are best for comparing alternatives. These relative metrics do not provide information about absolute environmental sustainability, which requires comparison between the demand and supply of ecosystem services (ES). Techno‐ecological synergy (TES) is a framework to account for ES, and has been demonstrated by application to systems such as buildings and manufacturing activities that have narrow system boundaries. This article develops an approach for techno‐ecological synergy in life cycle assessment (TES‐LCA) by expanding the steps in conventional LCA to incorporate the demand and supply of ecosystem goods and services at multiple spatial scales. This enables calculation of absolute environmental sustainability metrics, and helps identify opportunities for improving a life cycle not just by reducing impacts, but also by restoring and protecting ecosystems. TES‐LCA of a biofuel life cycle demonstrates this approach by considering the ES of carbon sequestration, air quality regulation, and water provisioning. Results show that for the carbon sequestration ecosystem service, farming can be locally sustainable but unsustainable at the global or serviceshed scale. Air quality regulation is unsustainable at all scales, while water provisioning is sustainable at all scales for this study in the eastern part of the United States.     

Considering land–sea interactions and trade‐offs for food and biodiversity

With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per‐capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever‐growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross‐sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade‐offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land–sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter‐productive trade‐offs resulting from land‐sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross‐sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future.     

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil‐mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study

Future human well‐being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land‐based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil‐based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in‐depth understanding of the likely response of soil‐based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient‐related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well‐being.     

Sharing the safe operating space: Exploring ethical allocation principles to operationalize the planetary boundaries and assess absolute sustainability at individual and industrial sector levels

In the light of increasing human pressures on the Earth system, the issue of sharing in the face of scarcity is more pressing than ever. The planetary boundary framework identifies and quantifies nine environmental boundaries and corresponding human pressures. However, when aiming to make the concept operational for decision support it is unclear how this safe operating space (SOS) within each of the planetary boundaries should be shared. This study proposes a two‐step approach, where the operating space is first downscaled to the individual level using ethical allocation principles and next scaled up to a higher organizational level using different upscaling methods. For the downscaling, three allocation principles are demonstrated: egalitarian (equal per capita); grandfathering (proportional to current share of the total impacts); and ability to pay (proportional to economic activity). For upscaling from the individual level final consumption expenditure is used as a proxy for the priority that the individual gives to the product or sector. In an alternative upscaling approach, an additional upscaling factor is based on the eco‐efficiency (ratio between turnover and environmental impact) of the product or sector. A demonstration of the method's application is given by applying the framework to two of the planetary boundaries, climate change and biogeochemical flows, with the Danish, Indian and global dairy sectors as cases. It is demonstrated how the choices of allocation and upscaling approaches influence the results differently in the three cases. The developed framework is shown to support an informed and transparent selection of allocation principles and upscaling methods and it provides a step toward standardization of distributing the SOS in absolute environmental sustainability assessments.     

Estimating 20‐year land‐use change and derived CO2 emissions associated with crops,pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states

Land‐use change (LUC) in Brazil has important implications on global climate change, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and agricultural expansion plays a critical role in this process. Concerns over these issues have led to the need for estimating the magnitude and impacts associated with that, which are increasingly reported in the environmental assessment of products. Currently, there is an extensive debate on which methods are more appropriate for estimating LUC and related emissions and regionalized estimates are lacking for Brazil, which is a world leader in agricultural production (e.g. food, fibres and bioenergy). We developed a method for estimating scenarios of past 20‐year LUC and derived CO₂ emission rates associated with 64 crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil as whole and in each of its 27 states, based on time‐series statistics and in accordance with most used carbon‐footprinting standards. The scenarios adopted provide a range between minimum and maximum rates of CO₂ emissions from LUC according to different possibilities of land‐use transitions, which can have large impacts in the results. Specificities of Brazil, like multiple cropping and highly heterogeneous carbon stocks, are also addressed. The highest CO₂ emission rates are observed in the Amazon biome states and crops with the highest rates are those that have undergone expansion in this region. Some states and crops showing large agricultural areas have low emissions associated, especially in southern and eastern Brazil. Native carbon stocks and time of agricultural expansion are the most decisive factors to the patterns of emissions. Some implications on LUC estimation methods and standards and on agri‐environmental policies are discussed.     

A method for calculating a land‐use change carbon footprint (LUC‐CFP) for agricultural commodities – applications to Brazilian beef and soy,Indonesian palm oil

The world's agricultural system has come under increasing scrutiny recently as an important driver of global climate change, creating a demand for indicators that estimate the climatic impacts of agricultural commodities. Such carbon footprints, however, have in most cases excluded emissions from land‐use change and the proposed methodologies for including this significant emissions source suffer from different shortcomings. Here, we propose a new methodology for calculating land‐use change carbon footprints for agricultural commodities and illustrate this methodology by applying it to three of the most prominent agricultural commodities driving tropical deforestation: Brazilian beef and soybeans, and Indonesian palm oil. We estimate land‐use change carbon footprints in 2010 to be 66 tCO₂/t meat (carcass weight) for Brazilian beef, 0.89 tCO₂/t for Brazilian soybeans, and 7.5 tCO₂/t for Indonesian palm oil, using a 10 year amortization period. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is its flexibility: it can be applied in a tiered approach, using detailed data where it is available while still allowing for estimation of footprints for a broad set of countries and agricultural commodities; it can be applied at different scales, estimating both national and subnational footprints; it can be adopted to account both for direct (proximate) and indirect drivers of land‐use change. It is argued that with an increasing commercialization and globalization of the drivers of land‐use change, the proposed carbon footprint methodology could help leverage the power needed to alter environmentally destructive land‐use practices within the global agricultural system by providing a tool for assessing the environmental impacts of production, thereby informing consumers about the impacts of consumption and incentivizing producers to become more environmentally responsible.     

Transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling – a review of comprehensive energy systems assessment approaches

The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased the interest in alternative nonfossil fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of nonfossil energy in the transport sector increase energy–transport interactions and system effects over sector boundaries. While the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches and assessments of energy–transport interactions now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of global energy–economy future studies based on systems modelling treating the transport sector as an integral part of the overall energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. To clarify similarities and differences in approaches and results, the present work reviews studies on transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling and investigates what future role comprehensive global energy–economy modelling studies portray for transport biofuels in terms of their potential and competitiveness. The results vary widely between the studies, but the resulting transport biofuel market shares are mainly below 40% during the entire time periods analysed. Some of the reviewed studies show higher transport biofuel market shares in the medium (15–30 years) than in the long term (above 30 years), and, in the long‐term models, at the end of the modelling horizon, transport biofuels are often substituted by electric and hydrogen cars.     

Towards a Circular Economy in Australian Agri‐food Industry: An Application of Input‐Output Oriented Approaches for Analyzing Resource Efficiency and Competitiveness Potential

The food industry in Australia (agriculture and manufacturing) plays a fundamental role in contributing to socioeconomic sectors nationally. However, alongside the benefits, the industry also produces environmental burdens associated with the production of food. Sectorally, agriculture is the largest consumer of water. Additionally, land degradation, greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and waste generation are considered the main environmental impacts caused by the industry. The research project aims to evaluate the eco‐efficiency performance of various subsectors in the Australian agri‐food systems through the use of input‐output–oriented approaches of data envelopment analysis and material flow analysis. This helps in establishing environmental and economic indicators for the industry. The results have shown inefficiencies during the life cycle of food production in Australia. Following the principles of industrial ecology, the study recommends the implementation of sustainable processes to increase efficiency, diminish undesirable outputs, and decrease the use of nonrenewable inputs within the production cycle. Broadly, the research outcomes are useful to inform decision makers about the advantages of moving from a traditional linear system to a circular production system, where a sustainable and efficient circular economy could be created in the Australian food industry.     

Assessment of lignocellulosic biorefineries in Germany using a hybrid LCA multi‐objective optimization model

In this study a tiered hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) multi‐objective optimization model is developed and applied to determine the optimal choice of new biorefinery technologies in Germany. Thereby, several aspects can be explicitly addressed, including a regionally differentiated accountability of sustainable feedstock availability, identification of environmental impacts along global value chains, and identification of trade‐offs between different sustainability goals. The model is applied to assess the optimal choice between two lignocellulosic biorefinery concepts. Two optimization objectives are taken into account: maximizing the investor's profit and minimizing global impacts on climate change related to a specified demand for products. In terms of environmental impacts, the model also takes into account the comparison of new biorefineries with current available technologies producing the specified final demand. The results of the case study show that the biorefinery concept including the ethylene production is more beneficial in terms of reducing climate impacts, while on the other hand the biorefinery including the ethanol production is more cost‐effective. Depending on the decision‐maker's preference on weighting the two objectives, different capacities of biorefineries and optimal locations in Germany are identified. Furthermore, regions in Germany providing the necessary biomass feedstock can be identified on a county level. Finally, we argue that the extension of LCA by multi‐objective optimization is well suited guiding the way toward well‐informed decision‐making in the field of technological choices.     

Global ecosystems and fire: Multi‐model assessment of fire‐induced tree‐cover and carbon storage reduction

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands, and 17% in savanna regions. Global fire effects on total carbon storage and carbon turnover times are lower with the effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) close to 0. We find the strongest impacts of fire in savanna regions. Climatic conditions in regions with the highest burned area differ from regions with highest absolute fire impact, which are characterized by higher precipitation. Our estimates of fire‐induced vegetation change are lower than previous studies. We attribute these differences to different definitions of vegetation change and effects of anthropogenic land use, which were not considered in previous studies and decreases the impact of fire on tree cover. Accounting for fires significantly improves the spatial patterns of simulated tree cover, which demonstrates the need to represent fire in dynamic vegetation models. Based upon comparisons between models and observations, process understanding and representation in models, we assess a higher confidence in the fire impact on tree cover and vegetation carbon compared to GPP, total carbon storage and turnover times. We have higher confidence in the spatial patterns compared to the global totals of the simulated fire impact. As we used an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art fire models, including effects of land use and the ensemble median or mean compares better to observational datasets than any individual model, we consider the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems.     

Environmental Footprints and Scenario Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of the Agri‐Food Industry on a Regional Economy: A Case Study in Spain

The study of the environmental footprints of various sectors and industries is increasingly demanded by institutions and by society. In this context, the regional perspective is becoming particularly important, and even more so in countries such as Spain, where the autonomous communities have the primary responsibility for implementing measures to combat environmental degradation and promote sustainable development, in coordination with national strategies. Taking as a case study a Spanish region, Aragon, and significant economic sectors, including agriculture and the food industry, the aim of this work is twofold. First, we calculate the associated environmental footprints (of emissions and water) from the dual perspectives of production (local impacts) and consumption (final destination of the goods produced by the agri‐food industry). Second, through a scenarios analysis, based on a general equilibrium model designed and calibrated specifically for the region, we evaluate the environmental implications of changes in the agri‐food industry (changes in the export and import pattern, as well as in consumer behavior). This model provides a flexible approximation to the environmental impacts, controlling for a wider range of behavioral and economic interactions. Our results indicate that the agri‐food industry has a significant impact on the environment, especially on water resources, which must be responsibly managed in order to maintain the differential advantage that a regional economy can have, compared to other territories.     

Potential for industrial ecology to support healthcare sustainability: Scoping review of a fragmented literature and conceptual framework for future research

Healthcare is a critical service sector with a sizable environmental footprint from both direct activities and the indirect emissions of related products and infrastructure. As in all other sectors, the “inside‐out” environmental impacts of healthcare (e.g., from greenhouse gas emissions, smog‐forming emissions, and acidifying emissions) are harmful to public health. The environmental footprint of healthcare is subject to upward pressure from several factors, including the expansion of healthcare services in developing economies, global population growth, and aging demographics. These factors are compounded by the deployment of increasingly sophisticated medical procedures, equipment, and technologies that are energy‐ and resource‐intensive. From an “outside‐in” perspective, on the other hand, healthcare systems are increasingly susceptible to the effects of climate change, limited resource access, and other external influences. We conducted a comprehensive scoping review of the existing literature on environmental issues and other sustainability aspects in healthcare, based on a representative sample from over 1,700 articles published between 1987 and 2017. To guide our review of this fragmented literature, and to build a conceptual foundation for future research, we developed an industrial ecology framework for healthcare sustainability. Our framework conceptualizes the healthcare sector as comprising “foreground systems” of healthcare service delivery that are dependent on “background product systems.” By mapping the existing literature onto our framework, we highlight largely untapped opportunities for the industrial ecology community to use “top‐down” and “bottom‐up” approaches to build an evidence base for healthcare sustainability.     

Capacity and Efficiency in Small‐ to Medium‐Sized Biodiesel Production Systems

This article applies principles of industrial ecology to small‐ and medium‐sized biodiesel production facilities. A large potential for gains in efficiency and profit are realized through technology retrofits and the novel application and reuse of process materials. Our basic criteria for sustainability of farm‐scale biodiesel production systems are measured by the following questions: Are all of the resources, mass, and energy flows in the system rational and harmonized? Is the feedstock produced without adverse effects on natural resources or the food chain? We answer these questions by presenting and applying the latest chemical engineering and technology research to support the harmonized and rationalized use of resources and energy within the system boundaries of a farm economy. The feedstock must include refuse and secondary oil sources with low impact on the food chain. Emissions must be reduced to a minimum for a smaller carbon footprint and positive emissions balance from seed to exhaust. Discharges should be avoided; wastes must be turned into primary and intermediary products or energy resources. Proper techniques and routines should serve environmental and human health and safety targets. Reuse of existing assets is considered for improving unit capacity and efficiency, thus lowering costs of conversion. Significant benefits in profitability and production capacity, combined with improved environmental performance, are the main outcomes of the recommended restructuring of production at farm‐scale.     

Steel‐versus‐Concrete Debate Revisited: Global Warming Potential and Embodied Energy Analyses based on Attributional and Consequential Life Cycle Perspectives

In the study of sustainable building materials, the comparison of the life cycle environmental performance of steel and reinforced concrete has been a popular and important topic. Based in Singapore, this is one of the first studies in the literature that applies both attributional and consequential life cycle approaches to compare the global warming potential and embodied energies of these two materials, which are widely used for the structural parts of buildings. It was found that 1 kilogram (kg) of steel can be replaced by 1 or 4.25 kg of reinforced concrete. Two consequential scenarios for each of three combinations of primary and secondary steel were assessed. It was found that reinforced concrete produces less carbon dioxide emissions and incurs less embodied energy in most of these cases, but when different sustainable primary steel‐making technologies were incorporated, these results may be reversed. We applied consequential life cycle assessment and scenario analysis to describe how changes in the demand for structural steel and reinforced concrete in Singapore's building industry give rise to different environmental impacts. Specifically, the consequential life cycle approach revealed that, over the short term, the impact of substituting steel with reinforced concrete depends on the difference in impacts resulting from the transportation of these two materials within Singapore. Based on these lessons, integrated technology policies to improve the overall sustainability of using steel for construction were proposed.     

Organization Environmental Footprint through Input‐Output Analysis: A Case Study in the Construction Sector

The implementation of global sustainability has gained worldwide attention in recent years. The Organization Environmental Footprint, which encompasses 14 impact categories, is a multicriteria measure of the environmental performance of goods and services provided by an organization from a life cycle perspective. In this article, the focus is on quantifying the Organization Environmental Footprint of a construction company in Spain. By applying an environmentally extended input‐output approach, its total footprint and impacts along the supply chain from two consecutive years were calculated. The results show that the environmental impacts from the second year of implementation were significantly higher than those from the first year. The impact category climate change was found to have experienced the greatest increase from one year to the other, with a 31% increase. This work provides an overview of 14 environmental impact categories of the company assessed, as well as recommendations for the implementation of this indicator in companies and public procurement. This approach could pave the way to shape organizations’ action plans and meet the European environmental challenges.     

Life cycle sustainability assessment of autonomous heavy‐duty trucks

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are emerging technologies expected to bring important environmental, social, and economic improvements in transportation systems. Given their implications in terms of air quality and sustainable and safer movement of goods, heavy‐duty trucks (HDTs), carrying the majority of U.S. freight, are considered an ideal domain for the application of CAV technology. An input–output (IO) model is developed based on the Eora database—a detailed IO database that consists of national IO tables, covering almost the entire global economy. Using the Eora‐based IO model, this study quantifies and assesses the environmental, economic, and social impacts of automated diesel and battery electric HDTs based on 20 macro‐level indicators. The life cycle sustainability performances of these HDTs are then compared to that of a conventional diesel HDT. The study finds an automated diesel HDT to cause 18% more fatalities than an automated electric HDT. The global warming potential (GWP) of automated diesel HDTs is estimated to be 4.7 thousand metric tons CO₂‐eq. higher than that of automated electric HDTs. The health impact costs resulting from an automated diesel HDT are two times higher than that of an automated electric HDT. Overall, the results also show that automation brings important improvements to the selected sustainability indicators of HDTs such as global warming potential, life cycle cost, GDP, decrease in import, and increase in income. The findings also show that there are significant trade‐offs particularly between mineral and fossil resource losses and environmental gains, which are likely to complicate decision‐making processes regarding the further development and commercialization of the technology.     

Environmental benefits and sustainable land‐use options in the Jambi transect,Sumatra

Abstract. Loss of environmental services provided by forests is a non‐linear process in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Intermediate‐intensity land‐use types in the form of complex agroforests have maintained global environmental benefits under a sustainable and profitable land use regime. Conversion to tree crop monocultures, however, poses a challenge to the environmental stakeholders and an opportunity from to stakeholders in the private economy. We quantified environmental indicators, as well as profitability and sustainability of a range of existing and possible production systems. Criteria and indicators were used at plot to landscape scales, taking into account local, national and global perspectives. Agronomic sustainability and profitability were assessed at plot level as they are of primarily local concern, while environmental services of forests, such as plant species and functional type richness, carbon stocks, greenhouse gas emissions, and trans‐boundary haze, which are of national and global concern, were assessed at landscape level. Quantitative trade‐offs and complementarities were analysed between global environmental benefits and local profitability. The current trend towards simplification of the complex agro‐ecosystems and inherent loss of environmental services of forests is driven by profitability. The sequence in which environmental services of forests are lost is: standing carbon stocks, biodiversity, and low or negative greenhouse gas emissions.     

How much heat can we grow in our cities? Modelling UK urban biofuel production potential

Biofuel provides a globally significant opportunity to reduce fossil fuel dependence; however, its sustainability can only be meaningfully explored for individual cases. It depends on multiple considerations including: life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, air quality impacts, food versus fuel trade‐offs, biodiversity impacts of land use change and socio‐economic impacts of energy transitions. One solution that may address many of these issues is local production of biofuel on non‐agricultural land. Urban areas drive global change, for example, they are responsible for 70% of global energy use, but are largely ignored in their resource production potential; however, underused urban greenspaces could be utilized for biofuel production near the point of consumption. This could avoid food versus fuel land conflicts in agricultural land and long‐distance transport costs, provide ecosystem service benefits to urban dwellers and increase the sustainability and resilience of cities and towns. Here, we use a Geographic Information System to identify urban greenspaces suitable for biofuel production, using exclusion criteria, in 10 UK cities. We then model production potential of three different biofuels: Miscanthus grass, short rotation coppice (SRC) willow and SRC poplar, within the greenspaces identified and extrapolate up to a UK‐scale. We demonstrate that approximately 10% of urban greenspace (3% of built‐up land) is potentially suitable for biofuel production. We estimate the potential of this to meet energy demand through heat generation, electricity and combined heat and power (CHP) operations. Our findings show that, if fully utilized, urban biofuel production could meet nearly a fifth of demand for biomass in CHP systems in the United Kingdom's climate compatible energy scenarios by 2030, with potentially similar implications for other comparable countries and regions.     

Carbon–Temperature–Water change analysis for peanut production under climate change: a prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate‐Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate‐Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO‐Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO₂], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain‐fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.     

Life Cycle Assessment of Frozen Tilapia Fillets From Indonesian Lake‐Based and Pond‐Based Intensive Aquaculture Systems

We used life cycle assessment to evaluate a subset of the cradle‐to‐destination‐port environmental impacts associated with the production, processing, and transportation of frozen, packaged Indonesian tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) fillets to ports in Chicago and Rotterdam. Specifically, we evaluated the cumulative energy use; biotic resource use; and global warming, acidifying, and eutrophying emissions at each life cycle stage and in aggregate. We identify the importance of least environmental cost feed sourcing for reducing supply chain environmental impacts. We also highlight the need for more effective nutrient cycling in intensive aquaculture. The environmental trade‐offs inherent in substituting technological inputs for ecosystem services in intensive pond‐based versus lake‐based production systems are discussed. We further call for more nuanced considerations of comparative environmental advantage in the production and interregional trade of food commodities than has been characteristic of historic food miles discussions. Significant opportunities exist for improving environmental performance in tilapia aquaculture. This product compares favorably, however, with several other fishery, aquaculture, and animal husbandry products, according to the suite of impact categories considered in this study.