Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization

In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations.     

Selection in a subdivided population with dominance or local frequency dependence

The interplay between population structure and natural selection is an area of great interest. It is known that certain types of population subdivision do not alter fixation probabilities of selected alleles under genic, frequency-independent selection. In the presence of dominance for fitness or frequency-dependent selection these same types of subdivision can have large effects on fixation probabilities. For example, the barrier to fixation of a fitter allele due to underdominance is reduced by subdivision. Analytic results presented here relate a subdivided population that conforms to a finite island model to an approximately equivalent panmictic population. The size of this equivalent population is different from (larger than) the actual size of the subdivided population. Selection parameters are also different in the hypothetical equivalent population. As expected, the degree of dominance is lower in the equivalent population. The results are not limited to dominance but cover any form of polynomial frequency dependence.     

Stability properties of underdominance in finite subdivided populations

IN ISOLATED populations underdominance leads to bistable evolutionary dynamics: below a certain mutant allele frequency the wildtype succeeds. Above this point, the potentially underdominant mutant allele fixes. In subdivided populations with gene flow there can be stable states with coexistence of wildtypes and mutants: polymorphism can be maintained because of a migration-selection equilibrium, i.e., selection against rare recent immigrant alleles that tend to be heterozygous. We focus on the stochastic evolutionary dynamics of systems where demographic fluctuations in the coupled populations are the main source of internal noise. We discuss the influence of fitness, migration rate, and the relative sizes of two interacting populations on the mean extinction times of a group of potentially underdominant mutant alleles. We classify realistic initial conditions according to their impact on the stochastic extinction process. Even in small populations, where demographic fluctuations are large, stability properties predicted from deterministic dynamics show remarkable robustness. Fixation of the mutant allele becomes unlikely but the time to its extinction can be long.     

Fixation probability and time in subdivided populations

New alleles arising in a population by mutation ultimately are either fixed or lost. Either is possible, for both beneficial and deleterious alleles, because of stochastic changes in allele frequency due to genetic drift. Spatially structured populations differ from unstructured populations in the probability of fixation and the time that this fixation takes. Previous results have generally made many assumptions: that all demes contribute to the next generation in exact proportion to their current sizes, that new mutations are beneficial, and that new alleles have additive effects. In this article these assumptions are relaxed, allowing for an arbitrary distribution among demes of reproductive success, both beneficial and deleterious effects, and arbitrary dominance. The effects of population structure can be expressed with two summary statistics: the effective population size and a variant of Wright's F(ST). In general, the probability of fixation is strongly affected by population structure, as is the expected time to fixation or loss. Population structure changes the effective size of the species, often strongly downward; smaller effective size increases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles and decreases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles. On the other hand, population structure causes an increase in the homozygosity of alleles, which increases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles but somewhat decreases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles. The probability of fixing new beneficial alleles can be simply described by 2hs(1 - F(ST))N(e)/N(tot), where hs is the change in fitness of heterozygotes relative to the ancestral homozygote, F(ST) is a weighted version of Wright's measure of population subdivision, and N(e) and N(tot) are the effective and census sizes, respectively. These results are verified by simulation for a broad range of population structures, including the island model, the stepping-stone model, and a model with extinction and recolonization.     

Conservation corridors affect the fixation of novel alleles

Corridors are a popular tool for conservation of small populations. However, two purported benefits of corridors, increasing gene flow and providing a means for the recolonization of extinct patches of habitat (population rescue), may have unappreciated impacts on the likelihood that a new allele will become incorporated (fixed) within a population. Using a simulation model, I demonstrate that connecting a stable, isolated population with a population that requires periodic rescue (due to extinction via natural or anthropogenic disturbance) can affect fixation of alleles in the stable population, largely by changing the effective population size Ne of the two-patch complex. When disturbance is rare, connecting the two patches with corridors can increase fixation of beneficial alleles and increase loss of harmful alleles. However, the opposite occurs when rates of disturbance are high: corridors can promote fixation of harmful alleles and reduce fixation of beneficial alleles. Because the impact of corridors hinges upon disturbance frequency (i.e. rate of population rescue), population growth rate, movement rates, and habitat quality, different species are likely to have different responses to corridor-mediated fixation, even if the species reside within the same ecological community. By changing fixation, corridors could thus either promote adaptation or extinction.     

The fixation of locally beneficial alleles in a metapopulation

Extinction, recolonization, and local adaptation are common in natural spatially structured populations. Understanding their effect upon genetic variation is important for systems such as genetically modified organism management or avoidance of drug resistance. Theoretical studies on the effect of extinction and recolonization upon genetic variance started appearing in the 1970s, but the role of local adaptation still has no good theoretical basis. Here we develop a model of a haploid species in a metapopulation in which a locally adapted beneficial allele is introduced. We study the effect of different spatial patterns of local adaptation, and different metapopulation dynamics, upon the fixation probability of the beneficial allele. Controlling for the average selection pressure, we find that a small area of positive selection can significantly increase the global probability of fixation. However, local adaptation becomes less important as extinction rate increases. Deme extinction and recolonization have a spatial smoothing effect that effectively reduces spatial variation in fitness.     

The influence of local extinctions on the probability of fixation of chromosomal rearrangements

We investigated the influence of local extinctions in a subdivided population on the probability of fixation of an initially rare allele, for different migration rates. The selective regimes considered were strict underdominance, meiotic drive, and underdominance associated with meiotic drive. We show that local extinctions can increase the probability of fixation of initially rare alleles in underdominant loci for relatively high migration rates, even when both homozygotes have the same fitness. This increase is due to drift during founder events. On the contrary, local extinctions decrease the probability of fixation of alleles favoured by meiotic drive. For a locus where both meiotic drive and underdominance act, the effect of local extinctions depends on the relative strength of the two selective regimes and the initial frequency of the rare allele. For parameter values such that the rare allele is initially selected against, local extinctions decrease the probability of fixation for low migration rates while they cause an increase for moderate migration rates. When the parameter values are such that the rare allele should always be favoured by selection, local extinctions always decrease the probability of fixation. In this latter case, we show the existence of an optimal migration rate which maximizes the probability of fixation.     

Extinction time and age of an allele in a large finite population

For a single locus with two alleles we study the expected extinction and fixation times of the alleles under the influence of selection and genetic drift. Using a diffusion model we derive asymptotic approximations for these expected exit times for large populations. We consider the case where the fitness of the heterozygote is in between the fitnesses of the homozygotes (incomplete dominance). The asymptotic analysis not only yields new quantitative results but also reveals interesting features that remain hidden in the exact solution. Some of the outcomes are extensions of results known in the literature. The asymptotic approximations also apply to the expected first arrival time of an allele at a specified frequency and to the expected age of an allele.     

The robustness of Hamilton's rule with inbreeding and dominance: kin selection and fixation probabilities under partial sib mating

Assessing the validity of Hamilton's rule when there is both inbreeding and dominance remains difficult. In this article, we provide a general method based on the direct fitness formalism to address this question. We then apply it to the question of the evolution of altruism among diploid full sibs and among haplodiploid sisters under inbreeding resulting from partial sib mating. In both cases, we find that the allele coding for altruism always increases in frequency if a condition of the form rb>c holds, where r depends on the rate of sib mating alpha but not on the frequency of the allele, its phenotypic effects, or the dominance of these effects. In both examples, we derive expressions for the probability of fixation of an allele coding for altruism; comparing these expressions with simulation results allows us to test various approximations often made in kin selection models (weak selection, large population size, large fecundity). Increasing alpha increases the probability of fixation of recessive altruistic alleles (h<1/2), while it can increase or decrease the probability of fixation of dominant altruistic alleles (h>1/2).     

Extinction and fixation times with dominance and inbreeding

The effect of partial inbreeding on extinction and fixation times of a selected allele with partial dominance is studied using a diffusion model. Asymptotic approximations are obtained for large populations and the accuracy of the approximations was found to increase with inbreeding level. They show that inbreeding reduces extinction and fixation times compared to random mating at least by a factor 1+F, where F is Wright’s fixation index. The reduction of extinction and fixation times due to inbreeding is stronger for strong selection and if alleles are either highly recessive or highly dominant. This bears implications for the effect of inbreeding on the signature of selective sweeps. These findings extend previous results obtained for random mating populations and help clarifying previous simulation and numerical results on the effect of inbreeding on the dynamics of selected alleles.     

Impact of demography on extinction/fixation events

In this article we consider diffusion processes modeling the dynamics of multiple allelic proportions (with fixed and varying population size). We are interested in the way alleles extinctions and fixations occur. We first prove that for the Wright–Fisher diffusion process with selection, alleles get extinct successively (and not simultaneously), until the fixation of one last allele. Then we introduce a very general model with selection, competition and Mendelian reproduction, derived from the rescaling of a discrete individual-based dynamics. This multi-dimensional diffusion process describes the dynamics of the population size as well as the proportion of each type in the population. We prove first that alleles extinctions occur successively and second that depending on population size dynamics near extinction, fixation can occur either before extinction almost surely, or not. The proofs of these different results rely on stochastic time changes, integrability of one-dimensional diffusion processes paths and multi-dimensional Girsanov’s tranform.

     

A MODEL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ASYMMETRICAL MALE HYBRID STERILITY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR SPECIATION

Chromosomal analysis of several cases of asymmetrical male hybrid sterility in Drosophila has implicated the X- or the Y-chromosome and one or more autosomes. Here, I develop a model for the evolution of this phenomenon. An autosomal locus is assumed to affect viability and to interact with a Y-linked or an X-linked locus to determine male fertility. In a new environment, selection for viability favors a new allele at the autosomal locus, but incompatibility of this new allele with the sex-chromosome-linked gene generates male sterility. The incompatibility can be resolved if a new allele at the sex-linked locus invades the population. This results in nonreciprocal male hybrid sterility, the direction of the nonreciprocity being determined by the dominance or recessiveness of the new autosomal gene in its effect on fertility. It is shown that stable polymorphism for the autosomal locus is possible and that, if the equilibrium frequency of the new allele is above a critical value, the population will be constantly at the verge of speciation, “waiting” for the sex-linked mutation to occur. The appearance of this mutation causes a runaway process leading to rapid fixation of the new autosomal and sex-linked alleles. If the equilibrium frequency of the new autosomal allele is less than the critical value, deterministic speciation is impossible, but random drift may increase the frequency above the critical value and predispose the population to the invasion of the new sex-linked allele. Thus, both deterministic and stochastic modes of speciation are possible. Because deterministic speciation requires large selection coefficients, which impose a severe genetic load on the population, and because stochastic speciation requires repeated population bottlenecks, it is concluded that relative to the number of successful speciation events there will be many more events of deme extinction.     

Selection, load and inbreeding depression in a large metapopulation

The subdivision of a species into local populations causes its response to selection to change, even if selection is uniform across space. Population structure increases the frequency of homozygotes and therefore makes selection on homozygous effects more effective. However, population subdivision can increase the probability of competition among relatives, which may reduce the efficacy of selection. As a result, the response to selection can be either increased or decreased in a subdivided population relative to an undivided one, depending on the dominance coefficient F(ST) and whether selection is hard or soft. Realistic levels of population structure tend to reduce the mean frequency of deleterious alleles. The mutation load tends to be decreased in a subdivided population for recessive alleles, as does the expected inbreeding depression. The magnitude of the effects of population subdivision tends to be greatest in species with hard selection rather than soft selection. Population structure can play an important role in determining the mean fitness of populations at equilibrium between mutation and selection.     

Genetic load in sexual and asexual diploids: segregation, dominance and genetic drift

In diploid organisms, sexual reproduction rearranges allelic combinations between loci (recombination) as well as within loci (segregation). Several studies have analyzed the effect of segregation on the genetic load due to recurrent deleterious mutations, but considered infinite populations, thus neglecting the effects of genetic drift. Here, we use single-locus models to explore the combined effects of segregation, selection, and drift. We find that, for partly recessive deleterious alleles, segregation affects both the deterministic component of the change in allele frequencies and the stochastic component due to drift. As a result, we find that the mutation load may be far greater in asexuals than in sexuals in finite and/or subdivided populations. In finite populations, this effect arises primarily because, in the absence of segregation, heterozygotes may reach high frequencies due to drift, while homozygotes are still efficiently selected against; this is not possible with segregation, as matings between heterozygotes constantly produce new homozygotes. If deleterious alleles are partly, but not fully recessive, this causes an excess load in asexuals at intermediate population sizes. In subdivided populations without extinction, drift mostly occurs locally, which reduces the efficiency of selection in both sexuals and asexuals, but does not lead to global fixation. Yet, local drift is stronger in asexuals than in sexuals, leading to a higher mutation load in asexuals. In metapopulations with turnover, global drift becomes again important, leading to similar results as in finite, unstructured populations. Overall, the mutation load that arises through the absence of segregation in asexuals may greatly exceed previous predictions that ignored genetic drift.     

The mathematical theory of group selection. I. Full solution of a nonlinear Levins E = E(x) model

The first complete overtime solution is obtained for a group selection model of Levins E = E(x) type with recolonization but no other gene flow between islands. Assuming a subdivided population at carrying capacity, the model describes selection at a biallelic locus (A, a) where a is opposed by Mendelian selection but is favored by a lower rate of extinction of demes having high a frequency. By contrast to the linear diffusion equations encountered in classical mathematical genetics, the PDE governing the dynamics is now nonlinear in the metapopulation gene frequency distribution φ(x, t); furthermore, the initial conditions now heavily influence the equilibrium distribution φ_∞(x). A fully explicit formula (20) expressing this dependence is derived. The results indicate that a fixation is never reached, but (A, a) polymorphism in the metapopulation will result if , where s 1 parametrizes the strength of Mendelian selection, E(x) is the Levins extinction operator, h (typically in the open interval (0, 1)) is the dominance of a, and B is a parameter measuring the flatness of the initial distribution f(x) in the x → 1 limit.     

Gene flow and genetic drift in a species subject to frequent local extinctions

Two models of the effect of extinction and recolonization on the genetic differentiation of local populations are analyzed. One model is Wright's “island model” in which there is gene flow from a source of fixed gene frequency. The other is an island model with a continuous production of new alleles and gene flow among all the populations. Individual and group selection are not considered. It is shown that the extent of population differentiation and the direction of the effect of the colonization and extinction process depend on the manner in which the propagules that establish new colonies are formed. Two extreme cases are considered. In the “propagule pool” model all the individuals in a single propagule are derived from one population while in the “migrant pool” model, the individuals in a propagule are derived from a random sample of the entire collection of populations.     

The Effects of Density Dependence and Immigration on Local Adaptation and Niche Evolution in a Black-Hole Sink Environment

We examine the effects of density dependence and immigration on local adaptation in a "black-hole sink" habitat, i.e., a habitat in which isolated populations of a species would tend to extinction but where a population is demographically maintained by recurrent one-way migration from a separate source habitat in which the species persists. Using a diploid, one-locus model of a discrete-generation sink population maintained by immigration from a fixed source population, we show that a locally favored allele will spread when rare in the sink if the absolute fitness (or, in some cases, the geometric-mean absolute fitness) of heterozygotes with the favored allele is above one in the sink habitat. With density dependence, the criterion for spread can depend on the rate of immigration, because immigration affects local densities and, hence, absolute fitness. Given the successful establishment of a locally favored allele, it will be maintained by a migration-selection balance and the resulting polymorphic population will be sustained deterministically with either stable or unstable dynamics. The densities of stable polymorphic populations tend to exceed densities that would be maintained in the absence of the favored allele. With strong density regulation, spread of the favored allele may destabilize population dynamics. Our analyses show that polymorphic populations which form subsequent to the establishment of favorable alleles have the capacity to persist deterministically without immigration. Finally, we examined the probabilistic rate at which new favored alleles arise and become established in a sink population. Our results suggest that favored alleles are established most readily at intermediate levels of immigration.     

A Bayesian method for jointly estimating allele age and selection intensity.

The problem of jointly estimating the intensity of past selection affecting an allele and the allele's age is formulated in a Bayesian framework. The prior distribution of allele age given its frequency is obtained from existing population genetics theory. The prior distribution of selection intensity is assumed to reflect the fact that positive selection on a new mutant is more likely to be weak than strong. The general approach is illustrated by the development of an importance sampling method applicable to low-frequency alleles. This method can be used either when the haplotypes of closely linked marker loci are known or when the lengths of linked ancestral chromosomal segments can be inferred. The method is illustrated with an application to the A-allele of G6PD in Africa. Because changes in allele frequency and recombination are both intrinsically stochastic, there are limits to the accuracy achievable with any method.     

The spatial distribution of transient alleles in a subdivided population: a simulation study

The spatial distributions of newly introducted alleles in a subdivided population are generated using a computer program to model the processes of selection, gene flow and genetic drift. Advantageous, neutral and deleterious alleles are considered, and certain aspects of the patterns generated by new alleles that are ultimately fixed and ultimately lost are examined. To characterize the spatial pattern of rare alleles, the distribution, P(i), the probability that the new allele is found in exactly i local populations before it is lost, is defined and estimated from the simulations. The shape of the P(i) distribution is surprisingly similar for selected and neutral alleles. For advantageous alleles going to fixation, the "wave of advance" is set up quickly, but stochastic effects reduce the wave speed from Fisher's (1937) value. Gene flow is much more effective in dispersing alleles in a two-dimensional array than in one dimension. Long distance gene flow has a much smaller effect in two dimensions than in one dimension.     

Selection and drift in subdivided populations: a straightforward method for deriving diffusion approximations and applications involving dominance, selfing and local extinctions

Population structure affects the relative influence of selection and drift on the change in allele frequencies. Several models have been proposed recently, using diffusion approximations to calculate fixation probabilities, fixation times, and equilibrium properties of subdivided populations. We propose here a simple method to construct diffusion approximations in structured populations; it relies on general expressions for the expectation and variance in allele frequency change over one generation, in terms of partial derivatives of a "fitness function" and probabilities of genetic identity evaluated in a neutral model. In the limit of a very large number of demes, these probabilities can be expressed as functions of average allele frequencies in the metapopulation, provided that coalescence occurs on two different timescales, which is the case in the island model. We then use the method to derive expressions for the probability of fixation of new mutations, as a function of their dominance coefficient, the rate of partial selfing, and the rate of deme extinction. We obtain more precise approximations than those derived by recent work, in particular (but not only) when deme sizes are small. Comparisons with simulations show that the method gives good results as long as migration is stronger than selection.