Balancing bias and precision in capture-recapture estimates of abundance

Capture‐recapture estimates of abundance using photographic identification data are sensitive to the quality of photographs used and distinctiveness of individuals in the population. Here analyses are presented for examining the effects of photographic quality and individual animal distinctiveness scores and for objectively selecting a subset of data to use for capture‐recapture analyses using humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) data from a 2‐year study in the North Atlantic. Photographs were evaluated for their level of quality and whales for their level of individual distinctiveness. Photographic quality scores had a 0.21 probability of changing by a single‐quality level, and there were no changes by two or more levels. Individual distinctiveness scores were not independent of photographic quality scores. Estimates of abundance decreased as poor‐quality photographs were removed. An appropriate balance between precision and bias in abundance estimates was achieved by removing the lowest‐quality photographs and those of incompletely photographed flukes given our assumptions about the true population abundance. A simulation of the selection process implied that, if the estimates are negatively biased by heterogeneity, the increase in bias produced by decreasing the sample size is not more than 2%. Capture frequencies were independent of individual distinctiveness scores.     

ABUNDANCE OF BLUE AND HUMPBACK WHALES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ESTIMATED BY CAPTURE-RECAPTURE AND LINE-TRANSECT METHODS

We estimated humpback and blue whale abundance from 1991 to 1997 off the west coast of the U. S. and Mexico comparing capture-recapture models based on photographically identified animals and line-transect methods from ship-based surveys. During photo-identification research we obtained 4,212 identifications of 824 humpback whales and 2,403 identifications of 908 blue whales primarily through non-systematic small-boat surveys along the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington. Line-transect surveys from NOAA ships in 1991, 1993, and 1996 covered approximately 39,000 km along the coast of Baja California, California, Oregon, and Washington out to 555 km from shore. The nearshore and clumped distribution of humpback whales allowed photographic identification from small boats to cost-effectively sample a substantial portion of the population, but made it difficult to obtain effective samples in the line-transect surveys covering broad areas. The humpback capture-recapture estimates indicated humpback whale abundance increased over the six years (from 569 to 837). The broader more offshore distribution of blue whales made it harder to obtain a representative sample of identification photographs, but was well suited to the line-transect estimates. The line-transect estimates, after correction for missed animals, indicated approximately 3,000 blue whales (CV = 0.14). Capture-recapture estimates of blue whales were lower than this: approximately 2,000 when using photographs obtained from the line-transect surveys as one of the samples. Comparison of the results from the two methods provides validation, as well as insight into potential biases associated with each method.     

Humpback whale abundance in the North Pacific estimated by photographic capture‐recapture with bias correction from simulation studies

We estimated the abundance of humpback whales in the North Pacific by capture‐recapture methods using over 18,000 fluke identification photographs collected in 2004–2006. Our best estimate of abundance was 21,808 (CV = 0.04). We estimated the biases in this value using a simulation model. Births and deaths, which violate the assumption of a closed population, resulted in a bias of +5.2%, exclusion of calves in samples resulted in a bias of ?10.5%, failure to achieve random geographic sampling resulted in a bias of ?0.4%, and missed matches resulted in a bias of +9.3%. Known sex‐biased sampling favoring males in breeding areas did not add significant bias if both sexes are proportionately sampled in the feeding areas. Our best estimate of abundance was 21,063 after accounting for a net bias of +3.5%. This estimate is likely to be lower than the true abundance due to two additional sources of bias: individual heterogeneity in the probability of being sampled (unquantified) and the likely existence of an unknown and unsampled breeding area (?8.7%). Results confirm that the overall humpback whale population in the North Pacific has continued to increase and is now greater than some prior estimates of prewhaling abundance.     

Long-term population size of the North Atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure

Once hunted to the brink of extinction, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic have recently been increasing in numbers. However, uncertain information on past abundance makes it difficult to assess the extent of the recovery in this species. While estimates of pre-exploitation abundance based upon catch data suggest the population might be approaching pre-whaling numbers, estimates based on mtDNA genetic diversity suggest they are still only a fraction of their past abundance levels. The difference between the two estimates could be accounted for by inaccuracies in the catch record, by uncertainties surrounding the genetic estimate, or by differences in the timescale to which the two estimates apply. Here we report an estimate of long-term population size based on nuclear gene diversity. We increase the reliability of our genetic estimate by increasing the number of loci, incorporating uncertainty in each parameter and increasing sampling across the geographic range. We report an estimate of long-term population size in the North Atlantic humpback of ~112,000 individuals (95 % CI 45,000–235,000). This value is 2–3 fold higher than estimates based upon catch data. This persistent difference between estimates parallels difficulties encountered by population models in explaining the historical crash of North Atlantic humpback whales. The remaining discrepancy between genetic and catch-record values, and the failure of population models, highlights a need for continued evaluation of whale population growth and shifts over time, and continued caution about changing the conservation status of this population.     

Transience in the humpback whale population of New Caledonia and implications for abundance estimation

A phenomenon of transience in the humpback whale population breeding in New Caledonia has been highlighted in recent analyses. We used these data to illustrate the risk of flawed inference when transience is not properly accounted for in abundance estimation of resident populations. Transients are commonly defined as individuals that pass through the sampling area once, i.e., have a null probability of being caught again, and therefore induce heterogeneity in the detection process. The presence of transients can lead to severe bias in the estimation of abundance and we demonstrate how to correct for this feature when estimating abundance of resident populations. In New Caledonia, very different conclusions about the number of resident whales in the southern lagoon between 1999 and 2005 are obtained when the abundance estimate accounts for the transient whales. Without correction, the estimates of the abundance were up to twice as high across all years compared to the estimates of the resident population when a correction for transients had been incorporated. Having reliable population estimates when assessing the status of endangered species is essential in documenting recovery and monitoring of population trends. Therefore, we encourage researchers to account for transients when reporting abundances of resident populations.     

Distributional patterns of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) along the Newfoundland East Coast reflect their main prey,capelin (Mallotus villosus)

On the Newfoundland foraging ground, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) primarily consume capelin (Mallotus villosus), which experienced a population collapse in the early 1990s, associated with altered timing of spawning and spawning migration. We examined whether humpback whale movement and distribution match these prey changes. Combining tour company whale sighting reports and photographs, citizen science reports of capelin spawning and scientific monitoring, whales were found to move northward along the east coast and whale aggregation presence within bays was associated with spawning capelin presence, being later in northerly bays. Whale aggregations arrived 8–20 days later than spawning capelin in northern bays, however, suggesting inconsistent tendencies to track high abundance spawning capelin aggregations during migration. Repeated scientific surveys during July–August 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014–2017, within a biological hotspot associated with capelin spawning sites in Notre Dame Bay, revealed that whale presence was influenced by the date of capelin spawning rather than capelin abundance metrics (i.e., biomass, number of shoals, shoal density, shoal area). A photo-identification catalog compiled during July–August, 2003–2017, revealed a 22% return rate of whales to the hotspot. Overall, findings suggest that capelin spawning sites are important foraging areas for humpback whales in coastal Newfoundland under these altered prey conditions.     

Photo‐identification matches of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) from feeding areas in Russian Far East seas and breeding grounds in the North Pacific

Humpback whales migrate seasonally from high latitude feeding areas to lower latitude breeding areas for mating and calving. In 2004–2006, a North Pacific basin‐wide study called SPLASH was conducted as an international collaboration among various groups of researchers. The Russian Far East consists of multiple high latitude feeding areas and during SPLASH, 102 whales were identified and compared to catalogs from breeding areas. Our goal in this study was to further investigate the migratory destinations of whales from the Russian Far East using a total of 1,459 photographs of whales identified from 2004 to 2014. We compared the latest Russian catalog with the SPLASH catalog from wintering areas (2004–2006) and with two additional regional catalogs from Okinawa (1989–2006) and the northern Philippines (2000–2006). We found a total of 152 matches: 106 with Asian, 35 with Hawaiian, and 11 with Mexican breeding grounds. The match rate was higher in mainland Kamchatka and consisted mostly of whales from the Asian breeding ground. In the Commander Islands, the proportion of whales from Asia was twice that of Hawaii and six times higher than Mexico. The total match rate was low, supporting the hypothesis of some undiscovered humpback whale breeding location in the North Pacific.     

Mitochondrial DNA diversity of the Southwestern Atlantic humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breeding area off Brazil, and the potential connections to Antarctic feeding areas

In the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean, humpback whales migrate every winter to the Brazilian coast for breeding and calving in the Abrolhos Bank. This breeding stock represents the remnants of a larger population heavily exploited during the beginning of the 20th century. Despite its relevance to conservation efforts, the degree of current genetic variation and the migratory relationship with Antarctic feeding areas for this population are still largely unknown. To examine these questions, we sequenced ∼400 bp of the mitochondrial DNA control region from samples taken off the Brazilian coast (n = 171) and near the Antarctic Peninsula (n = 77). The genetic variability of the Brazilian humpback whale breeding population was high and similar to that found in other Southern Hemisphere breeding grounds. Phylogenetic analysis suggested the existence of a new mitochondrial clade that exists at low frequency among Southern Hemisphere populations. Direct comparison between the Brazilian and the Colombia breeding populations and the Antarctic Peninsula feeding population showed no genetic differentiation between this feeding region and the Colombian breeding area or between feeding Areas I and II near the Antarctic Peninsula. In contrast, these populations were genetically distinct from the Brazilian population. Two humpback whales sampled off South Georgia Islands, in the Scotia Sea, shared identical haplotypes to whales from Brazil. Our results, supported by photo-identification and satellite telemetry data, suggest that the main feeding area of the Southern Hemisphere humpback whale population is likely to be located near the South Georgia/South Sandwich Islands area and not in the Antarctic Peninsula.     

Assessment of mark–recapture models to estimate the abundance of a humpback whale feeding aggregation in Southeast Alaska

Aim The aim of this study was to use photographs of the unique pattern on the ventral surface of the flukes to estimate the abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a discrete feeding aggregation in northern Southeast Alaska. Location The study was located in northern Southeast Alaska, USA, in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. Methods This study evaluated mark–recapture models, ranging from the simpler models (pooled and stratified, closed Petersen estimators) to more complex multi‐strata models (closed Darroch and open Hilborn). The Akaike Information Criterion, corrected (AICc) was used as a model comparison statistic. Results Our best estimate of whale abundance in northern Southeast Alaska in 2000 is 961 whales [95% confidence interval (657, 1076)]. This estimate comes from the Hilborn open, multi‐strata approach with constant migration over time, time‐dependent capture probabilities by area, and a fixed survival rate of 0.98. The simpler models were problematic owing to several aspects of whale behaviour, including that (1) the whales did not mix randomly throughout the study area, (2) some whales emigrated temporarily outside the study area and were not available for capture, and (3) whales were not equally identifiable because they did not behave in the same way when they showed their flukes upon diving. This led to heterogeneity in capture probability and a bias in the estimates. The more complex models stratified by area, and using migration movements among areas, compensated for some of these issues when estimating population size. Main conclusions We believe that the Hilborn open, multi‐strata model produced the best estimate because: (1) it incorporated the best information about survival, (2) it used detailed information about the various release groups, (3) the analysis provided an integrated environment in which parameters such as migration and capture probabilities are shared, (4) the three strata encompassed a large portion of the areas used by whales, and (5) the Hilborn model selected was superior in terms of model selection criteria and biological realism. These data provide valuable insights into the numbers and movements of humpback whales in three areas of Southeast Alaska.     

BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE OF FOUR SPECIES OF BALAENOPTERID WHALES TO BIOPSY SAMPLING

Behavioral responses to biopsy sampling of four species of northwestern Atlantic balaenopterid whales summering in the estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, Quebec, from 1990 to 1995 were studied to determine if this technique was an important disturbance to the whales. A total of 447 biopsy samples were taken using a small punch-type biopsy tip fired from a crossbow. Biopsies were successfully taken from 91.2% of the whales approached. Whales displayed no reaction to 45.2% of the successful biopsy attempts. Whales that responded to biopsy sampling typically resumed their normal behavior immediately or within a few minutes. Most humpback whales displayed a hard tail flick, and the majority of fin and blue whales submerged following biopsy sampling. Significantly different frequencies and intensities of responses were found between whale species. Minke and humpback whales were found to be more sensitive to biopsy sampling than fin and blue whales. Response frequencies were similar between females and males for all species, with the exception of fin whales where females had a higher response frequency than males. Biopsy sample length, i. e., penetration depth, did not explain variations in response intensity but may influence response frequency to biopsy sampling. Group size, geographical region, and number of biopsies taken per whale were not factors that explained variation in behavioral responses. The biopsy technique was found to be an efficient method for obtaining high-quality whale skin and blubber samples with limited behavioral disturbance to balaenopterid whales.     

Low levels of genetic differentiation characterize Australian humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) populations

Humpback whales undertake long‐distance seasonal migrations between low latitude winter breeding grounds and high latitude summer feeding grounds. We report the first in‐depth population genetic study of the humpback whales that migrate to separate winter breeding grounds along the northwestern and northeastern coasts of Australia, but overlap on summer feeding grounds around Antarctica. Weak but significant differentiation between eastern and western Australia was detected across ten microsatellite loci (F_ST = 0.005, P = 0.001; D_EST = 0.031, P = 0.001, n = 364) and mitochondrial control region sequences (F_ST = 0.017 and Φ_ST = 0.069, P = 0.001, n = 364). Bayesian clustering analyses using microsatellite data could not resolve any population structure unless sampling location was provided as a prior. This study supports the emerging evidence that weak genetic differentiation is characteristic among neighboring Southern Hemisphere humpback whale breeding populations. This may be a consequence of relatively high gene flow facilitated by overlapping summer feeding areas in Antarctic waters.     

INTERCHANGE AND ISOLATION OF HUMPBACK WHALES OFF CALIFORNIA AND OTHER NORTH PACIFIC FEEDING GROUNDS

Humpback whales feed in several high-latitude areas of the North Pacific. We examined the interchange of humpback whales between one of these areas, off California, and those in other feeding grounds in the eastern North Pacific:. Fluke photographs of 597 humpback whales identified off California between 1986 and 1992 were compared with those off Oregon and Washington (29); British Columbia (81); southeastern Alaska (343); Prince William Sound, Alaska (141); Kodiak Island, Alaska (104); Shumagin Islands, Alaska (22); and in the Bering Sea (7). A high degree of interchange, both inter-and intrayear, was found among humpback whales seen off California, Oregon, and Washington., A low rate of interchange was found between British Columbia and California.: two whales seen near the British Columbia/Washington border were photographed off California in a different year, No interchange was found between California and the three feeding areas in Alaska. Humpback whales off California, Oregon, and Washington form a single intermixing feeding aggregation with only limited interchange with areas farther north. These findings are consistent with photographic identification studies in the North Atlantic and with genetic studies in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific.     

The World's Most Isolated and Distinct Whale Population? Humpback Whales of the Arabian Sea

A clear understanding of population structure is essential for assessing conservation status and implementing management strategies. A small, non-migratory population of humpback whales in the Arabian Sea is classified as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, an assessment constrained by a lack of data, including limited understanding of its relationship to other populations. We analysed 11 microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA sequences extracted from 67 Arabian Sea humpback whale tissue samples and compared them to equivalent datasets from the Southern Hemisphere and North Pacific. Results show that the Arabian Sea population is highly distinct; estimates of gene flow and divergence times suggest a Southern Indian Ocean origin but indicate that it has been isolated for approximately 70,000 years, remarkable for a species that is typically highly migratory. Genetic diversity values are significantly lower than those obtained for Southern Hemisphere populations and signatures of ancient and recent genetic bottlenecks were identified. Our findings suggest this is the world''s most isolated humpback whale population, which, when combined with low population abundance estimates and anthropogenic threats, raises concern for its survival. We recommend an amendment of the status of the population to “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List.     

Observations of cetaceans in the south-east Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean,during summer 2008

Knowledge of cetacean species composition and their distribution in the south-east Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean is scarce. During a survey in February–March 2008, systematic whale sightings were carried out along transect lines following the 5° and 15° E meridians between 35° and 67° S. In total, 67 toothed whales and 126 baleen whales were observed. Both fin whales (four animals) and Antarctic minke whales Balaenoptera bonaerenses (three animals) in addition to 16 individuals of unidentified species were among the observed baleen whales. The dominating baleen whale species in our study was humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae with 108 individuals observed. They occurred single or in groups up to seven individuals (N _mean = 2.5 ind) and eight of the counts were of calves. The relationship between humpback whale occurrence and environmental variables including Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) abundance from acoustic recordings, hydrography, bathymetry and production was tested using general additive models. Only temperature increased the predictive power of the model with whale occurrence increasing with the decreasing temperature in more southern areas.     

Singing through winter nights: Seasonal and diel occurrence of humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) calls in and around the Gully MPA,offshore eastern Canada

Humpback whale use of areas off eastern Canada is poorly understood, a knowledge gap that could impact future conservation efforts. We describe the acoustic occurrence of humpback whales in and around the Gully Marine Protected Area (MPA), an eastern Scotian Shelf submarine canyon. Near‐continuous acoustic recordings sampling at 16 kHz were collected from the MPA and nearby slope areas from October 2012 to September 2014 using near‐bottom recorders. In an offshore region where humpbacks were thought to be rare, we observed calls from October to June with a peak in song and nonsong calls in December and January. This suggests that some individuals occur in Canadian waters in winter and the Gully region may be a North Atlantic humpback whale migratory corridor. Calls were predominantly songs indicating potential mating activities. Song and nonsong calls occurred more at sunset and during hours of darkness than during daylight. This study improves our understanding of the seasonal occurrence of humpback whales on the Scotian Slope and, more specifically, their use of an offshore protected area.     

Spatial patterns of humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) sightings and survey effort: Insight into North Atlantic population structure

Understanding the population structure of a species is critical to its effective management and conservation. The humpback whale ( Megaptera novaeangliae ) has been the target of numerous research projects in several ocean basins, but no clear picture of its population structure has emerged. In the North Atlantic Ocean, genetic analyses and photo-identification movements have shown significant heterogeneity among the summer feeding grounds. Building on this knowledge, we test the hypothesis that the feeding grounds represent distinct populations by analyzing the spatial pattern of summer humpback whale sightings and survey effort. Controlling for the spatial pattern of effort, sightings are clustered, with peaks at radial distances of 300 km, 600 km, and 1,500 km. These results provide insight into the spatial extent of the summer population structure of humpback whales in the North Atlantic Ocean. Fine-scale clustering at distances of 300 km and 600 km is compatible with multiple populations consisting of the Gulf of Maine, eastern Canada, western Greenland, and Iceland. Broad-scale clustering at distances of 1,500 km may represent divisions between the western and eastern North Atlantic populations. These results provide spatial bounds to the feeding grounds of humpback whales and emphasize their distinct nature as management units.     

Mother Knows Best: Occurrence and Associations of Resighted Humpback Whales Suggest Maternally Derived Fidelity to a Southern Hemisphere Coastal Feeding Ground

Site fidelity is common among migratory cetaceans, including humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). In the Northern Hemisphere it has been found that fidelity to humpback whale feeding grounds is transferred maternally but this has never been shown for the species in the Southern Hemisphere. We examined this in a unique feeding area off west South Africa using resighting data of 68 individually identified humpback whales by means of photographic (tail flukes and dorsal fins) and/or molecular methods (microsatellite genotyping) over an 18 year span. We found short-term association patterns and recurrent visits typical of other feeding grounds. Males and females had different seasonality of attendance. Significant female-dominated presence corresponded to timing of an expected influx of females on their southward migration from the breeding ground: firstly non-nursing (possibly pregnant) females in mid-spring, and mothers and calves in mid-to late summer. The potential benefit of this mid-latitude feeding area for females is illustrated by a record of a cow with known age of at least 23 years that produced calves in three consecutive years, each of which survived to at least six months of age: the first record of successful post-partum ovulation for this species in the Southern Hemisphere. We recorded association of a weaned calf with its mother, and a recurring association between a non-lactating female and male over more than two years. Moreover, three animals first identified as calves returned to the same area in subsequent years, sometimes on the same day as their mothers. This, together with numerous Parent-Offspring relations detected genetically among and between resighted and non-resighted whales is strongly suggestive of maternally derived site fidelity at a small spatial scale by a small sub-population of humpback whales.     

Migratory preferences of humpback whales between feeding and breeding grounds in the eastern South Pacific

Latitudinal preferences within the breeding range have been suggested for Breeding Stock G humpback whales that summer in different feeding areas of the eastern South Pacific. To address this hypothesis, humpback whales photo‐identified from the Antarctic Peninsula and the Fueguian Archipelago (southern Chile) were compared with whales photo‐identified from lower latitudes extending from northern Peru to Costa Rica. This comparison was performed over a time span that includes 18 austral seasons. A total of 238 whales identified from the Antarctic Peninsula and 25 whales from the Fueguian Archipelago were among those photo‐identified at the breeding grounds. Our findings showed that humpback whales from each feeding area were resighted unevenly across the breeding grounds, which suggests a degree of spatial structuring in the migratory pathway. Humpback whales that feed at the Antarctic Peninsula were more likely to migrate to the southern breeding range between northern Peru and Colombia, whereas whales that feed at the Fueguian Archipelago were more likely to be found in the northern range of the breeding ground off Panama. Further photo‐identification efforts and genetic sampling from poorly sampled or unsampled areas are recommended to confirm these reported connectivity patterns.     

HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS OF HUMPBACK AND BLUE WHALES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: CLUES TO MIGRATORY ROUTES AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL FEEDING GROUNDS

The seasonal distributions of humpback and blue whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae and Balaenoptera musculus , respectively) in the North Atlantic Ocean are not fully understood. Although humpbacks have been studied intensively in nearshore or coastal feeding and breeding areas, their migratory movements between these areas have been largely inferred. Blue whales have only been studied intensively along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and their seasonal occurrence and movements elsewhere in the North Atlantic are poorly known. We investigated the historical seasonal distributions of these two species using sighting and catch data extracted from American 18th and 19th century whaling logbooks. These data suggest that humpback whales migrated seasonally from low-latitude calving/ breeding grounds over a protracted period, and that some of them traveled far offshore rather than following coastal routes. Also, at least some humpbacks apparently fed early in the summer west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, well south of their known present-day feeding grounds. In assessing the present status of the North Atlantic humpback population, it will be important to determine whether such offshore feeding does in fact occur. Blue whales were present across the southern half of the North Atlantic during the autumn and winter months, and farther north in spring and summer, but we had too few data points to support inferences about these whales' migratory timing and routes.     

Against the current: an inter-oceanic whale migration event

Humpback whales seasonally migrate long distances between tropical and polar regions. However, inter-oceanic exchange is rare and difficult to document. Using skin biopsy samples collected in the Indian Ocean and in the South Atlantic Ocean, and a genetic capture-recapture approach based on microsatellite genotyping, we were able to reveal the first direct genetic evidence of the inter-oceanic migration of a male humpback whale. This exceptional migration to wintering grounds of two different ocean basins questions traditional notions of fidelity to an ocean basin, and demonstrates how the behaviour of highly mobile species may be elucidated from combining genetics with long-term field studies. Our finding has implications for management of humpback whale populations, as well as for hypotheses concerning cultural transmission of behaviour.