Evolutionary trade-offs between reproduction and dispersal in populations at expanding range boundaries

During recent climate warming, some species have expanded their ranges northwards to keep track of climate changes. Evolutionary changes in dispersal have been demonstrated in these expanding populations and here we show that increased dispersal is associated with reduced investment in reproduction in populations of the speckled wood butterfly, Pararge aegeria. Evolutionary changes in flight versus reproduction will affect the pattern and rate of expansion at range boundaries in the future, and understanding these responses will be crucial for predicting the distribution of species in the future as climates continue to warm.     

Impacts of landscape structure on butterfly range expansion

Since the 1940s, the distributions of several butterfly species have been expanding in northern Europe, probably in response to climate warming. We focus on the speckled wood butterfly Pararge aegeria in order to determine impacts of habitat availability on expansion rates. We analyse observed expansion rates since 1940 and also use a spatially explicit mechanistic model (MIGRATE) to simulate range expansion in two areas of the UK which differ in their distribution of breeding habitat (woodland). Observed and simulated expansion rates were in very close agreement but were 42%–45% slower in an area that had 24% less woodland. Unlike P. aegeria, the majority of butterfly species are not currently expanding, almost certainly because of lack of suitable habitat. Incorporating the spatial distribution of habitat into investigations of range changes is likely to be important in determining those species that can and cannot expand, and for predicting potential future range changes.     

Modelling population redistribution in a leaf beetle: an evaluation of alternative dispersal functions

1. Dispersal is a fundamental ecological process, so spatial models require realistic dispersal kernels. We compare five different forms for the dispersal kernel of the tansy beetle Chrysolina graminis moving between patches of its host-plant (tansy Tanacetum vulgare) in a riparian landscape. 2. Multi-patch mark-recapture data were collected every 2 weeks over 2 years within a large network of patches and from 2226 beetles. Dispersal was common (28.4% of 880 recaptures after a fortnight) and was more likely over longer intervals, out of small patches, for females and during flooding. Interpatch movement rates did not differ between years and exhibited no density dependence. Dispersal distances were similar for males and females, in both years and over all intervals, with a median dispersal distance of just 9.8 m, although a maximum of 856 m was recorded. 3. A model of dispersal, where patches competed for dispersers based on their size and distance from the beetle's source patch (scaled by the dispersal kernel) was fitted to the field data with a maximum likelihood procedure and each of five alternative kernels. The best fitting had relatively extended tails of long-distance dispersal, while Gaussian and negative exponential kernels performed worst. 4. The model suggests that females disperse more commonly than males and that both are strongly attracted to large patches but do not differ between years, which are consistent with the empirical results. Model-predicted emigration and immigration rates and dispersal phenologies match those observed, suggesting that the model captured the major drivers of tansy beetle dispersal. 5. Although negative exponential and Gaussian kernels are widely used for their simplicity, we suggest that these should not be the models of automatic choice, and that fat-tailed kernels with relatively higher proportions of long-distance dispersal may be more realistic.     

Mutation surfing and the evolution of dispersal during range expansions

A growing body of empirical evidence demonstrates that at an expanding front, there can be strong selection for greater dispersal propensity, whereas recent theory indicates that mutations occurring towards the front of a spatially expanding population can sometimes ‘surf’ to high frequency and spatial extent. Here, we consider the potential interplay between these two processes: what role may mutation surfing play in determining the course of dispersal evolution and how might dispersal evolution itself influence mutation surfing? Using an individual‐based coupled‐map lattice model, we first run simulations to determine the fate of dispersal mutants that occur at an expanding front. Our results highlight that mutants that have a slightly higher dispersal propensity than the wild type always have a higher survival probability than those mutants with a dispersal propensity lower than, or very similar to, the wild type. However, it is not always the case that mutants with very high dispersal propensity have the greatest survival probability. When dispersal mortality is high, mutants of intermediate dispersal survive most often. Interestingly, the rate of dispersal that ultimately evolves at an expanding front is often substantially higher than that which confers a novel mutant with the greatest probability of survival. Second, we run a model in which we allow dispersal to evolve over the course of a range expansion and ask how the fate of a neutral or nonneutral mutant depends upon when and where during the expansion it arises. These simulations highlight that the success of a neutral mutant depends upon the dispersal genotypes that it is associated with. An important consequence of this is that novel mutants that arise at the front of an expansion, and survive, typically end up being associated with more dispersive genotypes than the wild type. These results offer some new insights into causes and the consequences of dispersal evolution during range expansions, and the methodology we have employed can be readily extended to explore the evolutionary dynamics of other life history characteristics.     

Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change

There is an urgent need for accurate prediction of climate change impacts on species ranges. Current reliance on bioclimatic envelope approaches ignores important biological processes such as interactions and dispersal. Although much debated, it is unclear how such processes might influence range shifting. Using individual-based modelling we show that interspecific interactions and dispersal ability interact with the rate of climate change to determine range-shifting dynamics in a simulated community with two growth forms--mutualists and competitors. Interactions determine spatial arrangements of species prior to the onset of rapid climate change. These lead to space-occupancy effects that limit the rate of expansion of the fast-growing competitors but which can be overcome by increased long-distance dispersal. As the rate of climate change increases, lower levels of long-distance dispersal can drive the mutualists to extinction, demonstrating the potential for subtle process balances, non-linear dynamics and abrupt changes from species coexistence to species loss during climate change.     

Rapid increase in dispersal during range expansion in the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis

The evolutionary trajectories associated with demographic, genetic and spatial disequilibrium have become an issue of growing interest in population biology. Invasive species provide unique opportunities to explore the impact of recent range expansion on life‐history traits, making it possible to test for a spatial arrangement of dispersal abilities along the expanding range, in particular. We carried out controlled experiments in laboratory conditions to test the hypothesis of an increase in dispersal capacity with range expansion in Harmonia axyridis, a ladybird that has been invading Europe since 2001. We found a marked increase in the flight speed of the insects from the core to the front of the invasion range in two independent sampling transects. By contrast, we found that two other traits associated with dispersal (endurance and motivation to fly off) did not follow the same spatial gradient. Our results provide a striking illustration of the way in which predictable directional genetic changes may occur rapidly for some traits associated with dispersal during biological invasions. We discuss the consequences of our results for invasion dynamics and the evolutionary outcomes of spatially expanding populations.     

Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly

There is an increasing need for conservation programmes to make quantitative predictions of biodiversity responses to changed environments. Such predictions will be particularly important to promote species recovery in fragmented landscapes, and to understand and facilitate distribution responses to climate change. Here, we model expansion rates of a test species (a rare butterfly, Hesperia comma) in five landscapes over 18 years (generations), using a metapopulation model (the incidence function model). Expansion rates increased with the area, quality and proximity of habitat patches available for colonization, with predicted expansion rates closely matching observed rates in test landscapes. Habitat fragmentation constrained expansion, but in a predictable way, suggesting that it will prove feasible both to understand variation in expansion rates and to develop conservation programmes to increase rates of range expansion in such species.     

Personality-dependent dispersal: characterization, ontogeny and consequences for spatially structured populations

Dispersal is one of the most fundamental components of ecology, and affects processes as diverse as population growth, metapopulation dynamics, gene flow and adaptation. Although the act of moving from one habitat to another entails major costs to the disperser, empirical and theoretical studies suggest that these costs can be reduced by having morphological, physiological or behavioural specializations for dispersal. A few recent studies on different systems showed that individuals exhibit personality-dependent dispersal, meaning that dispersal tendency is associated with boldness, sociability or aggressiveness. Indeed, in several species, dispersers not only develop behavioural differences at the onset of dispersal, but display these behavioural characteristics through their life cycle. While personality-dependent dispersal has been demonstrated in only a few species, we believe that it is a widespread phenomenon with important ecological consequences. Here, we review the evidence for behavioural differences between dispersers and residents, to what extent they constitute personalities. We also examine how a link between personality traits and dispersal behaviours can be produced and how personality-dependent dispersal affects the dynamics of metapopulations and biological invasions. Finally, we suggest future research directions for population biologists, behavioural ecologists and conservation biologists such as how the direction and the strength of the relationship between personality traits and dispersal vary with ecological contexts.     

The response of two butterfly species to climatic variation at the edge of their range and the implications for poleward range shifts

To predict changes in species' distributions due to climate change we must understand populations at the poleward edge of species' ranges. Ecologists generally expect range shifts under climate change caused by the expansion of edge populations as peripheral conditions increasingly resemble the range core. We tested whether peripheral populations of two contrasting butterflies, a small-bodied specialist (Erynnis propertius) and a large-bodied generalist (Papilio zelicaon), respond favorably to warmer conditions. Performance of populations related to climate was evaluated in seven peripheral populations spanning 1.2 degrees latitude (160 km) using: (1) population density surveys, an indirect measure of site suitability; and (2) organismal fitness in translocation experiments. There was evidence that population density increased with temperature for P. zelicaon whose population density declined with latitude in 1 of 3 sample years. On the other hand, E. propertius showed a positive relationship of population density with latitude, apparently unrelated to climate or measured habitat variables. Translocation experiments showed increased larval production at increased temperatures for both species, and in P. zelicaon, larval production also increased under drier conditions. These findings suggest that both species may increase at their range edge with warming but the preference for core-like conditions may be stronger in P. zelicaon. Further, populations of E. propertius at the range boundary may be large enough to act as sources of colonists for range expansions, but range expansion in this species may be prevented by a lack of available host plants further north. In total, the species appear to respond differently to climate and other factors that vary latitudinally, factors that will likely affect poleward expansion.     

The abiotic and biotic factors limiting establishment of predatory fishes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario,Canada

There is a poor understanding of the importance of biotic interactions in determining species distributions with climate change. Theory from invasion biology suggests that the success of species introductions outside of their historical ranges may be either positively (biotic acceptance) or negatively (biotic resistance) related to native biodiversity. Using data on fish community composition from two survey periods separated by approximately 28 years during which climate was warming, we examined the factors influencing the establishment of three predatory centrarchids: Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu), Largemouth Bass (M. salmoides), and Rock Bass (Ambloplites rupestris) in lakes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario. Variance partitioning demonstrated that, at a regional scale, abiotic factors play a stronger role in determining the establishment of these species than biotic factors. Pairing lakes within watersheds where each species had established with lakes sharing similar abiotic conditions where the species had not established revealed both positive and negative relationships between the establishment of centrarchids and the historical presence of other predatory species. The establishment of these species near their northern range boundaries is primarily determined by abiotic factors at a regional scale; however, biotic factors become important at the lake‐to‐lake scale. Studies of exotic species invasions have previously highlighted how spatial scale mediates the importance of abiotic vs. biotic factors on species establishment. Our study demonstrates how concepts from invasion biology can inform our understanding of the factors controlling species distributions with changing climate.     

The color of noise and the evolution of dispersal

The process of dispersal is vital for the long-term persistence of all species and hence is a ubiquitous characteristic of living organisms. A present challenge is to increase our understanding of the factors that govern the dispersal rate of individuals. Here I extend previous work by incorporating both spatial and temporal heterogeneity in terms of patch quality into a spatially explicit lattice model. The spatial heterogeneity is modeled as a two-dimensional fractal landscape, while temporal heterogeneity is included by using one-dimensional noise. It was found that the color of both the spatial and temporal variability influences the rate of dispersal selected as reddening of the temporal noise leads to a reduction in dispersal, while reddening of spatial variability results in an increase in the dispersal rate. These results demonstrate that the color of environmental noise should be considered in future studies looking at the evolution of life history characteristics.     

Duelling timescales of host movement and disease recovery determine invasion of disease in structured populations

The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R ₀. However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R ₀, because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases 'perceive' a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R _* statistic, a group-level equivalent of R ₀, is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level R ₀.     

Quantifying interspecific variation in dispersal ability of noctuid moths using an advanced tethered flight technique

Dispersal plays a crucial role in many aspects of species' life histories, yet is often difficult to measure directly. This is particularly true for many insects, especially nocturnal species (e.g. moths) that cannot be easily observed under natural field conditions. Consequently, over the past five decades, laboratory tethered flight techniques have been developed as a means of measuring insect flight duration and speed. However, these previous designs have tended to focus on single species (typically migrant pests), and here we describe an improved apparatus that allows the study of flight ability in a wide range of insect body sizes and types. Obtaining dispersal information from a range of species is crucial for understanding insect population dynamics and range shifts. Our new laboratory tethered flight apparatus automatically records flight duration, speed, and distance of individual insects. The rotational tethered flight mill has very low friction and the arm to which flying insects are attached is extremely lightweight while remaining rigid and strong, permitting both small and large insects to be studied. The apparatus is compact and thus allows many individuals to be studied simultaneously under controlled laboratory conditions. We demonstrate the performance of the apparatus by using the mills to assess the flight capability of 24 species of British noctuid moths, ranging in size from 12–27 mm forewing length (~40–660 mg body mass). We validate the new technique by comparing our tethered flight data with existing information on dispersal ability of noctuids from the published literature and expert opinion. Values for tethered flight variables were in agreement with existing knowledge of dispersal ability in these species, supporting the use of this method to quantify dispersal in insects. Importantly, this new technology opens up the potential to investigate genetic and environmental factors affecting insect dispersal among a wide range of species.     

Ecology and evolution of symbiosis in metapopulations

We present a model for symbionts in plant host metapopulation. Symbionts are assumed not only to form a systemic infection throughout the host and pass into the host seeds, but also to reproduce and infect new plants by spores. Thus, we study a metapopulation of qualitatively identical patches coupled through seeds and spores dispersal. Symbionts that are only vertically inherited cannot persist in such a uniform environment if they lower the host's fitness. They have to be beneficial in order to coexist with the host if they are not perfectly transmitted to the seeds; but evolution selects for 100% fidelity of infection inheritance. In this model we want to see how mixed strategies (both vertical and horizontal infection) affect the coexistence of uninfected and infected plants at equilibrium; also, what would evolution do for the host, for the symbionts and for their association. We present a detailed classification of the possible equilibria with examples. The stability of the steady states is rigorously proved for the first time in a metapopulation set-up.     

Informed dispersal, heterogeneity in animal dispersal syndromes and the dynamics of spatially structured populations

There is accumulating evidence that individuals leave their natal area and select a breeding habitat non-randomly by relying upon information about their natal and future breeding environments. This variation in dispersal is not only based on external information (condition dependence) but also depends upon the internal state of individuals (phenotype dependence). As a consequence, not all dispersers are of the same quality or search for the same habitats. In addition, the individual's state is characterized by morphological, physiological or behavioural attributes that might themselves serve as a cue altering the habitat choice of conspecifics. These combined effects of internal and external information have the potential to generate complex movement patterns and could influence population dynamics and colonization processes. Here, we highlight three particular processes that link condition-dependent dispersal, phenotype-dependent dispersal and habitat choice strategies: (1) the relationship between the cause of departure and the dispersers' phenotype; (2) the relationship between the cause of departure and the settlement behaviour and (3) the concept of informed dispersal, where individuals gather and transfer information before and during their movements through the landscape. We review the empirical evidence for these processes with a special emphasis on vertebrate and arthropod model systems, and present case studies that have quantified the impacts of these processes on spatially structured population dynamics. We also discuss recent literature providing strong evidence that individual variation in dispersal has an important impact on both reinforcement and colonization success and therefore must be taken into account when predicting ecological responses to global warming and habitat fragmentation.     

Adaptive evolution of butterfly wing shape: from morphology to behaviour

Butterflies display extreme variation in wing shape associated with tremendous ecological diversity. Disentangling the role of neutral versus adaptive processes in wing shape diversification remains a challenge for evolutionary biologists. Ascertaining how natural selection influences wing shape evolution requires both functional studies linking morphology to flight performance, and ecological investigations linking performance in the wild with fitness. However, direct links between morphological variation and fitness have rarely been established. The functional morphology of butterfly flight has been investigated but selective forces acting on flight behaviour and associated wing shape have received less attention. Here, we attempt to estimate the ecological relevance of morpho‐functional links established through biomechanical studies in order to understand the evolution of butterfly wing morphology. We survey the evidence for natural and sexual selection driving wing shape evolution in butterflies, and discuss how our functional knowledge may allow identification of the selective forces involved, at both the macro‐ and micro‐evolutionary scales. Our review shows that although correlations between wing shape variation and ecological factors have been established at the macro‐evolutionary level, the underlying selective pressures often remain unclear. We identify the need to investigate flight behaviour in relevant ecological contexts to detect variation in fitness‐related traits. Identifying the selective regime then should guide experimental studies towards the relevant estimates of flight performance. Habitat, predators and sex‐specific behaviours are likely to be major selective forces acting on wing shape evolution in butterflies. Some striking cases of morphological divergence driven by contrasting ecology involve both wing and body morphology, indicating that their interactions should be included in future studies investigating co‐evolution between morphology and flight behaviour.