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1.
Few monitoring programs have simultaneously assessed the dynamics of linked marine ecosystems (coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves) to document their temporal and spatial variability. Based on CARICOMP protocol we evaluated permanent stations in coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves from 1993 to 2008 in Chengue Bay at the Tayrona Natural Park, Colombian Caribbean. Overall, the studied ecosystems showed a remarkable stability pattern over the monitoring period. While there were annual variations in coral reefs (coral cover) and mangroves (litterfall) caused by hurricane Lenny in 1999, particular trends in seagrass (leaf area index and leaf productivity) appear to reflect the natural variability in this ecosystem. We suggest that monitoring sites at the three marine ecosystems had in general a healthy development in the last 16 years. Our results are critical to locally improve the management strategies (Tayrona Natural Park) and to understand the long-term dynamics of closely associated marine ecosystems in the Caribbean.  相似文献   

2.
The interplay between storms and sea level rise, and between ecology and sediment transport governs the behavior of rapidly evolving coastal ecosystems such as marshes and barrier islands. Sediment deposition during hurricanes is thought to increase the resilience of salt marshes to sea level rise by increasing soil elevation and vegetation productivity. We use mesocosms to simulate burial of Spartina alterniflora during hurricane‐induced overwash events of various thickness (0–60 cm), and find that adventitious root growth within the overwash sediment layer increases total biomass by up to 120%. In contrast to most previous work illustrating a simple positive relationship between burial depth and vegetation productivity, our work reveals an optimum burial depth (5–10 cm) beyond which burial leads to plant mortality. The optimum burial depth increases with flooding frequency, indicating that storm deposition ameliorates flooding stress, and that its impact on productivity will become more important under accelerated sea level rise. Our results suggest that frequent, low magnitude storm events associated with naturally migrating islands may increase the resilience of marshes to sea level rise, and in turn, slow island migration rates. Synthesis: We find that burial deeper than the optimum results in reduced growth or mortality of marsh vegetation, which suggests that future increases in overwash thickness associated with more intense storms and artificial heightening of dunes could lead to less resilient marshes.  相似文献   

3.
Luxuriant fringing reefs along the southwestern shores of the Caribbean islands of Curaçao and Bonaire (12°N), located outside the most frequent hurricane tracks, are rarely affected by major storms. Consequently, reef growth and long-term preservation are potentially optimal and distinct from reefs experiencing greater hurricane frequency. Hurricane Lenny (November 1999) took an unusual west-to-east track, bisecting the Caribbean Basin north of these islands, but generated heavy waves (3-6  m) that severely damaged reefs along the normally leeward shores. Massive coral colonies >100 years old were toppled, but even at the most severely damaged sites, 82–85% of colonies remained in growth position. Late Pleistocene (125  ka) elevated reefs in the Lower Terrace of Curaçao record even higher proportions of corals in growth position (93%), possibly reflecting a low hurricane frequency during the Pleistocene highstand. In comparison, coeval Pleistocene reefs in regions that today experience a high hurricane frequency (Great Inagua Island and San Salvador, Bahamas) have lower proportions of corals preserved in growth position (79% and 38%, respectively). These results are consistent with the hypothesis that reefs in regions experiencing very low hurricane frequency, like the southern Caribbean, are more likely to be preserved with corals in primary growth position in comparison to regions with higher hurricane frequency.  相似文献   

4.
Fringing reefs along the southwestern shores of the Caribbean islands of Curaçao and Bonaire (12°N), located outside the most frequent hurricane tracks, are rarely affected by heavy wave-action and major storms, yet have experienced disturbances such as coral bleaching, coral diseases, and mass mortalities. The last major hurricane to hit these islands occurred over 100 yr ago. In November 1999, Hurricane Lenny took an unusual west-to-east track, bisecting the Caribbean Basin and passing approximately 200 miles north of Curaçao and Bonaire. The leeward shores of both islands were pounded for 24 h by heavy waves (~3–6 m) generated while the storm was centered far to the west. Reef damage surveys at 33 sites conducted between November 1999 to April 2000, following the storm, documented occurrences of toppling, fragmentation, tissue damage, bleaching, and smothering due to the storm. Reefs were severely damaged along westward-facing shores but less impacted where the reef front was tangential to the wave direction or was protected by offshore islands. At the most severely damaged sites, massive coral colonies 2–3-m high (older than 100 yr) were toppled or overturned, smaller corals were broken loose and tumbled across the shallow reef platform and either deposited on the shore or dropped onto the deeper forereef slope. Branching and plating growth forms suffered more damage than massive species and large colonies experienced greater damage than small colonies. Toppled massive corals have a high potential of preserving the event signature even if they survive and continue to grow. Reorientation of large, long-lived coralla may provide a unique indicator of disturbance in a reef system rarely affected by hurricanes. At some locations, wave scouring removed loose sediment to reveal a cemented framework of Acropora cervicornis rubble on the shallow platform above 10-m depth. This rubble was generated in situ, not by storm processes, but rather by an earlier mass mortality of thickets of staghorn coral that covered extensive areas of the shallow platform prior to the incidence of white band disease in the early 1980s.  相似文献   

5.
A computer model (COREEF) designed to simulate the growth of Caribbean coral reefs has been tested for its ability to reconstruct the storm-induced and the established zonation patterns on the West Reef at Discovery Bay, Jamaica. Hindcast waves for nine positions of Hurricane Allen were routed across the reef, and the disruptions to the coralgal and sediment zones were calculated for each position. The predicted maximum and intermediate stage damages closely matched the actual destruction produced by this and other smaller storms. Despite their severity, hurricanes probably have minimal long-term effect on the established zonation of this reef, because their return period is generally less than the recovery period of the reef. Additional simulation experiments indicate that a composite of the wave conditions at Discovery Bay maintain the established reef zonation and that winter storm conditions produce the maximum bottom velocities that the coralgal framework can withstand without disruption.  相似文献   

6.
The CARICOMP site at Puerto Morelos, Mexico was monitored from 1993 to 2005. No significant changes in air temperature, wind patterns, periodicity and quantity of rainfall, sea-surface temperature and water transparency were observed between sampling years. During the study four hurricane impacts were registered. At the coral reef site overall mean cover of fleshy algae (47%) and turf algae (36%) were high, whereas cover of corals (2%) and sponges (3%), and abundance of sea-urchins (0.04 org m(-2)) were consistently low. Gorgonians were dominant and showed changes in their community structure; the number of species increased from 1993 to 1995, their abundance decreased after Hurricane Roxanne (1995) and recovered by 2001. At four seagrass sites total community biomass remained constant (707.1-929.6 g dry m(-2)) but the above-ground biomass of the seagrass Syringodium filiforme and fleshy algae increased gradually. Total biomass (531-699 g dry m(-2)) and leaf productivity (0.89-1.56 g dry m(-2) d(-1)) of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum remained constant, but the species invested proportionally more biomass in above-ground leaf tissues at the end of the study. The minor hurricanes from 1993 until 2005 had no detectable impacts on the seagrass beds, however, the major Hurricane Wilma (October 2005) changed the community composition at three stations and caused complete burial of the vegetation at a coastal station. The gradual changes in the seagrass and reef communities recorded in the 12 years of continuous monitoring of the CARICOMP site may reflect the increased pollution caused by the rapid augment in urban and tourist developments along the coasts and inland from Puerto Morelos, coupled with poor water management practices.  相似文献   

7.
Identification of critical life-stage habitats is key to successful conservation efforts. Juveniles of some species show great flexibility in habitat use while other species rely heavily on a restricted number of juvenile habitats for protection and food. Considering the rapid degradation of coastal marine habitats worldwide, it is important to evaluate which species are more susceptible to loss of juvenile nursery habitats and how this differs across large biogeographic regions. Here we used a meta-analysis approach to investigate habitat use by juvenile reef fish species in tropical coastal ecosystems across the globe. Densities of juvenile fish species were compared among mangrove, seagrass and coral reef habitats. In the Caribbean, the majority of species showed significantly higher juvenile densities in mangroves as compared to seagrass beds and coral reefs, while for the Indo-Pacific region seagrass beds harbored the highest overall densities. Further analysis indicated that differences in tidal amplitude, irrespective of biogeographic region, appeared to be the major driver for this phenomenon. In addition, juvenile reef fish use of mangroves increased with increasing water salinity. In the Caribbean, species of specific families (e.g. Lutjanidae, Haemulidae) showed a higher reliance on mangroves or seagrass beds as juvenile habitats than other species, whereas in the Indo-Pacific family-specific trends of juvenile habitat utilization were less apparent. The findings of this study highlight the importance of incorporating region-specific tidal inundation regimes into marine spatial conservation planning and ecosystem based management. Furthermore, the significant role of water salinity and tidal access as drivers of mangrove fish habitat use implies that changes in seawater level and rainfall due to climate change may have important effects on how juvenile reef fish use nearshore seascapes in the future.  相似文献   

8.
Tropical cyclones are the most powerful storms on earth, causing catastrophic damage to human lives and infrastructure. Hurricanes also cause wildlife mortality when they make landfall, but the severity of these effects is difficult to quantify because data collection is either logistically impossible or deprioritized in the wake of human tragedy. On August 27, 2020, Hurricane Laura made landfall in southwestern Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 241 kph (150 mph), making it one of the most powerful storms to strike the mainland United States. Hurricane Laura passed directly over the core breeding range of the western Gulf Coast population of Mottled Duck (Anas fulvigula), during a time when many adult birds were undergoing a simultaneous wing feather molt and were flightless. We used GPS‐GSM telemetry data to evaluate survival rates of adult female Mottled Ducks in late summer 2020 (bracketing August 27 by one month on either side) relative to the same period in 2018 and 2019. Mortality was lower in 2018 (12 out of 29; 41%) and 2019 (8 out of 28; 29%) than in 2020 (12 out of 18; 67%), and 7 out of 12 mortalities documented in 2020 occurred when Hurricane Laura made landfall. Survival analyses in program MARK confirmed lower survival probability in 2020, but there was overlap in 85% confidence intervals in all years. This single storm resulted in the death of ~40% of all marked birds in our sample, suggesting that hurricanes have the potential to influence population demographics. In addition, Hurricane Laura resulted in widespread habitat loss and degradation that has reduced available nesting habitat in 2021, and possibly for years to come. The acute and chronic effects of hurricanes may exacerbate Mottled Duck population declines, which may worsen in the face of increasingly frequent and more severe tropical storms.  相似文献   

9.
Seascape-scale trophic links for fish on inshore coral reefs   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
It is increasingly accepted that coastal habitats such as inshore coral reefs do not function in isolation but rather as part of a larger habitat network. In the Caribbean, trophic subsidies from habitats adjacent to coral reefs support the diet of reef fishes, but it is not known whether similar trophic links occur on reefs in the Indo-Pacific. Here, we test whether reef fishes in inshore coral, mangrove, and seagrass habitats are supported by trophic links. We used carbon stable isotopes and mathematical mixing models to determine the minimum proportion of resources from mangrove or seagrass habitats in the diet of five fish species from coral reefs at varying distances (0–2,200 m) from these habitats in Moreton Bay, Queensland, eastern Australia. Of the fish species that are more abundant on reefs near to mangroves, Lutjanus russelli and Acanthopagrus australis showed no minimum use of diet sources from mangrove habitat. Siganus fuscescens utilized a minimum of 25–44 % mangrove sources and this contribution increased with the proximity of reefs to mangroves (R 2 = 0.91). Seagrass or reef flat sources contributed a minimum of 14–78 % to the diet of Diagramma labiosum, a species found in higher abundance on reefs near seagrass beds, but variation in diet among reefs was unrelated to seascape structure. Seagrass or reef flat sources also contributed a minimum of 8–55 % to a fish species found only on reefs (Pseudolabrus guentheri), indicating that detrital subsidies from these habitats may subsidize fish diet on reefs. These results suggest that carbon sources from multiple habitats contribute to the functioning of inshore coral reef ecosystems and that trophic connectivity between reefs and mangroves may enhance production of a functionally important herbivore.  相似文献   

10.
Few studies have considered how seagrass fish assemblages are influenced by surrounding habitats. This information is needed for a better understanding of the connectivity between tropical coastal ecosystems. To study the effects of surrounding habitats on the composition, diversity and densities of coral reef fish species on seagrass beds, underwater visual census surveys were carried out in two seagrass habitat types at various locations along the coast of Zanzibar (Tanzania) in the western Indian Ocean. Fish assemblages of seagrass beds in a marine embayment with large areas of mangroves (bay seagrasses) situated 9 km away from coral reefs were compared with those of seagrass beds situated on the continental shelf adjacent to coral reefs (reef seagrasses). No differences in total fish density, total species richness or total juvenile fish density and species richness were observed between the two seagrass habitat types. However, at species level, nine species showed significantly higher densities in bay seagrasses, while eight other species showed significantly higher densities in reef seagrasses. Another four species were exclusively observed in bay seagrasses. Since seagrass complexity could not be related to these differences, it is suggested that the arrangement of seagrass beds in the surrounding landscape (i.e. the arrangement on the continental shelf adjacent to the coral reef, or the arrangement in an embayment with mangroves situated away from reefs) has a possible effect on the occurrence of various reef-associated fish species on seagrass beds. Fish migration from or to the seagrass beds and recruitment and settlement patterns of larvae possibly explain these observations. Juvenile fish densities were similar in the two types of seagrass habitats indicating that seagrass beds adjacent to coral reefs also function as important juvenile habitats, even though they may be subject to higher levels of predation. On the contrary, the density and species richness of adult fish was significantly higher on reef seagrasses than on bay seagrasses, indicating that proximity to the coral reef increases density of adult fish on reef seagrasses, and/or that ontogenetic shifts to the reef may reduce adult density on bay seagrasses.  相似文献   

11.
A review of research on the effects of hurricanes on coral reefs suggests that the intermediate disturbance hypothesis may be applicable to shallow reef zones dominated by branching or foliaceous coral species that are especially susceptible to mechanical damage from storms. Diversity (H') increases because of an increase in evenness following destruction or removal of the species that was monopolizing the space. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis as presented by Connell focuses on changes in number of species, but should be expanded to include diversity (H') and evenness. It should also be modified to incorporate changes in living cover and the time elapsed since disturbances of varying intensities. This hypothesis predicts that when cover is high, diversity will be low. However, research on coral reefs does not consistently demonstrate an inverse correlation of coral diversity, and coral cover. An increase in cover and decrease in diversity with depth would also be expected because deeper reef zones generally experience less disturbance. However, higher diversity (both H' and species richness) is often associated with deeper zones. The effects of hurricanes on coral reefs will depend on the temporal and spatial scales under consideration, the life history characteristics and morphology of the dominant species, the depth of the reef zone, the ecological history of the site, and the influence of any additional natural or human stresses.  相似文献   

12.
As habitat loss and fragmentation, urbanization, and global climate change accelerate, conservation of rare ecosystems increasingly relies on human intervention. However, any conservation strategy is vulnerable to unpredictable, catastrophic events. Whether active management increases or decreases a system's resilience to these events remains unknown. Following Hurricane Irma's landfall in our habitat restoration study sites, we found that rare ecosystems with active, human‐imposed management suffered less damage in a hurricane's path than unmanaged systems. At the center of Irma's landfall, we found Croton linearis' (a locally rare plant that is the sole host for two endangered butterfly species) survival and population growth rates in the year of the hurricane were higher in previously managed plots than in un‐managed controls. In the periphery of Irma's circulation, the effect of prior management was stronger than that of the hurricane. Maintaining the historical disturbance regime thus increased the resilience of the population to major hurricane disturbance. As climate change increases the probability and intensity of severe hurricanes, human management of disturbance‐adapted landscapes will become increasingly important for maintaining populations of threatened species in a storm's path. Doing nothing will accelerate extinction.  相似文献   

13.
Understanding the interconnectivity of organisms among different habitats is a key requirement for generating effective management plans in coastal ecosystems, particularly when determining component habitat structures in marine protected areas. To elucidate the patterns of habitat use by fishes among coral, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, and between natural and transplanted mangroves, visual censuses were conducted semiannually at two sites in the Philippines during September and March 2010–2012. In total, 265 species and 15,930 individuals were recorded. Species richness and abundance of fishes were significantly higher in coral reefs (234 species, 12,306 individuals) than in seagrass (38 species, 1,198 individuals) and mangrove (47 species, 2,426 individuals) habitats. Similarity tests revealed a highly significant difference among the three habitats. Fishes exhibited two different strategies for habitat use, inhabiting either a single (85.6% of recorded species) or several habitats (14.4%). Some fish that utilized multiple habitats, such as Lutjanus monostigma and Parupeneus barberinus, showed possible ontogenetic habitat shifts from mangroves and/or seagrass habitats to coral reefs. Moreover, over 20% of commercial fish species used multiple habitats, highlighting the importance of including different habitat types within marine protected areas to achieve efficient and effective resource management. Neither species richness nor abundance of fishes significantly differed between natural and transplanted mangroves. In addition, 14 fish species were recorded in a 20-year-old transplanted mangrove area, and over 90% of these species used multiple habitats, further demonstrating the key role of transplanted mangroves as a reef fish habitat in this region.  相似文献   

14.
At the request of the Palau and US governments, a team of 30 scientists under the leadership of the Nature Conservancy completed a rapid ecological assessment (REA) of nearshore marine resources in Palau in 1992. The REA provided ecological input to Palau's ongoing master plan for economic development and identified 45 marine sites worthy of special protection. The REA relied on previous literature, 1992 aerial photography, interviews, and field observations. A combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques were used to assess stony corals, other reef invertebrates, reef and shore fishes, macroscopic algae, seagrasses, sea turtles and other marine organisms. The REA covered a variety of coral reef habitats including beaches, seagrass beds, fringing reefs, lagoons, passes, channels, reef holes, patch and pinnacle reefs, barrier reefs, atolls, submerged reefs, mangroves, and rock islands. Major stresses to Palau's coral reefs include sedimentation from soil erosion, overfishing, and damage from periodic storms and waves. Minor stresses include dredge-and fill activities, sewage pollution, anchor damage, tourism use, ship groundings, aquarium fish collecting, and minor crown-of-thorns (Acanthaster) infestations.  相似文献   

15.
Ecosystems are intricately linked by the flow of organisms across their boundaries, and such connectivity can be essential to the structure and function of the linked ecosystems. For example, many coral reef fish populations are maintained by the movement of individuals from spatially segregated juvenile habitats (i.e., nurseries, such as mangroves and seagrass beds) to areas preferred by adults. It is presumed that nursery habitats provide for faster growth (higher food availability) and/or low predation risk for juveniles, but empirical data supporting this hypothesis is surprisingly lacking for coral reef fishes. Here, we investigate potential mechanisms (growth, predation risk, and reproductive investment) that give rise to the distribution patterns of a common Caribbean reef fish species, Haemulon flavolineatum (French grunt). Adults were primarily found on coral reefs, whereas juvenile fish only occurred in non-reef habitats. Contrary to our initial expectations, analysis of length-at-age revealed that growth rates were highest on coral reefs and not within nursery habitats. Survival rates in tethering trials were 0% for small juvenile fish transplanted to coral reefs and 24-47% in the nurseries. As fish grew, survival rates on coral reefs approached those in non-reef habitats (56 vs. 77-100%, respectively). As such, predation seems to be the primary factor driving across-ecosystem distributions of this fish, and thus the primary reason why mangrove and seagrass habitats function as nursery habitat. Identifying the mechanisms that lead to such distributions is critical to develop appropriate conservation initiatives, identify essential fish habitat, and predict impacts associated with environmental change.  相似文献   

16.
The sea urchin Tripneustes ventricosus is a common, yet relatively poorly known, grazer of seagrass beds and coral reefs throughout the Caribbean. We compared the size and abundance of urchins between adjacent seagrass and coral reef habitats (where macroalgae are the dominant primary producers). We also conducted a laboratory experiment comparing the growth rate of juvenile urchins fed a diet of either macroalgae or seagrass. Reef urchins had significantly larger test diameter than those in the seagrass on some sampling dates. This size difference may be at least partially explained by diet, because laboratory-reared urchins fed macroalgae grew significantly faster than those fed seagrass. The seagrass population, however, was stable over time, whereas the reef population exhibited strong fluctuations in abundance. Overall, our study indicates that both the seagrass and coral reef habitats are capable of supporting healthy, reproductive populations of T. ventricosus. Each, however, appears to offer a distinct advantage: faster growth on the reef and greater population stability in the seagrass.  相似文献   

17.
This study explored the potential for otolith geochemistry in snapper (Family: Lutjanidae) to identify residency in juvenile nursery habitats with distinctive carbon isotope values. Conventional bulk otolith and muscle stable isotope analyses (SIA) and essential amino acid (AA) SIA were conducted on snapper collected from seagrass beds, mangroves, and coral reefs in the Red Sea, Caribbean Sea, and Pacific coast of Panama. While bulk stable isotope values in otoliths showed regional differences, they failed to distinguish nursery residence on local scales. Essential AA δ13C values in otoliths, on the other hand, varied as a function of habitat type and provided a better tracer of residence in different juvenile nursery habitats than conventional bulk otolith SIA alone. A strong linear relationship was found between paired otolith and muscle essential AA δ13C values regardless of species, geographic region, or habitat type, indicating that otolith AAs recorded the same dietary information as muscle AAs. Juvenile snapper in the Red Sea sheltered in mangroves but fed in seagrass beds, while snapper from the Caribbean Sea and Pacific coast of Panama showed greater reliance on mangrove-derived carbon. Furthermore, compound-specific SIA revealed that microbially recycled detrital carbon, not water-column-based new phytoplankton carbon, was the primary carbon source supporting snapper production on coastal reefs of the Red Sea. This study presented robust tracers of juvenile nursery residence that will be crucial for reconstructing ontogenetic migration patterns of fishes among coastal wetlands and coral reefs. This information is key to determining the importance of nursery habitats to coral reef fish populations and will provide valuable scientific support for the design of networked marine-protected areas.  相似文献   

18.
Ecosystems are linked by the movement of organisms across habitat boundaries and the arrangement of habitat patches can affect species abundance and composition. In tropical seascapes many coral reef fishes settle in adjacent habitats and undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts to coral reefs as they grow. Few studies have attempted to measure at what distances from nursery habitats these fish migrations (connectivity) cease to exist and how the abundance, biomass and proportion of nursery species change on coral reefs along distance gradients away from nursery areas. The present study examines seascape spatial arrangement, including distances between habitats, and its consequences on connectivity within a tropical seascape in Mozambique using a seascape ecology approach. Fish and habitat surveys were undertaken in 2016/2017 and a thematic habitat map was created in ArcGIS, where cover and distances between habitat patches were calculated. Distance to mangroves and seagrasses were significant predictors for abundance and biomass of most nursery species. The proportions of nursery species were highest in the south of the archipelago, where mangroves were present and decreased with distance to nurseries (mangroves and seagrasses). Some nursery species were absent on reef sites farthest from nursery habitats, at 80 km from mangroves and at 12 km from seagrass habitats. The proportion of nursery/non-nursery snapper and parrotfish species, as well as abundance and biomass of seagrass nursery species abruptly declined at 8 km from seagrass habitats, indicating a threshold distance at which migrations may cease. Additionally, reefs isolated by large stretches of sand and deep water had very low abundances of several nursery species despite being within moderate distances from nursery habitats. This highlights the importance of considering the matrix (sand and deep water) as barriers for fish migration.  相似文献   

19.
《Aquatic Botany》2007,87(1):31-37
The fish fauna of Thalassia testudinum (König) seagrass beds was studied at two sites in the Grand Cul-de-Sac Marin Bay (Guadeloupe, French West Indies). The first seagrass bed was located near a coral reef and the second was near coastal mangroves. Both habitats were sampled during day and night, using a purse-seine and a trap net. A total of 98 species belonging to 36 families were observed. Distance-based redundancy analyses revealed two site-specific assemblages of fishes. Diel assemblage shifts were more pronounced in the seagrass beds near coral reefs than in those near mangroves, due to the existence of nocturnal trophic incursions of coral reef fishes into seagrass beds. First-order carnivores dominated the trophic structure of the fish assemblages during both day and night. At night, Haemulidae, Holocentridae and Apogonidae took the place of Labridae, Chaetodontidae and Mullidae present by day near the reef. This switch did not occur near the coast where the exchanges between seagrass beds and mangrove appear to be less important than with the reef ecosystem. Thus, it appears that the adjacent seascape habitat setting affects the intensity in diel variability of the seagrass bed fish community.  相似文献   

20.
Coral reefs have been more severely impacted by recent climate instability than any other ecosystem on Earth. Corals tolerate a narrow range of physical environmental stress, and increases in sea temperature of just 1 °C over several weeks can result in mass coral mortality, often exceeding 95% of individuals over hundreds of square kilometres. Even conservative climate models predict that mass coral bleaching events could occur annually by 2050. Unfortunately, managers of coral‐reef resources have few options available to meet this challenge. Here, we investigate the role that fisheries conservation tools, including the designation of marine reserves, can play in altering future trajectories of Caribbean coral reefs. We use an individual‐based model of the ecological dynamics to test the influence of spatially realistic regimes of disturbance on coral populations. Two major sources of disturbance, hurricanes and coral bleaching, are simulated in contrasting regions of the Caribbean: Belize, Bonaire, and the Bahamas. Simulations are extended to 2099 using the HadGEM1 climate model. We find that coral populations can maintain themselves under all levels of hurricane disturbance providing that grazing levels are high. Regional differences in hurricane frequency are found to cause strikingly different spatial patterns of reef health with greater patchiness occurring in Belize, which has less frequent disturbance, than the Bahamas. The addition of coral bleaching led to a much more homogenous reef state over the seascape. Moreover, in the presence of bleaching, all reefs exhibited a decline in health over time, though with substantial variation among regions. Although the protection of herbivores does not prevent reef degradation it does delay rates of coral loss even under the most severe thermal and hurricane regimes. Thus, we can estimate the degree to which local conservation can help buy time for reefs with values ranging between 18 years in the Bahamas and over 50 years in Bonaire, compared with heavily fished systems. Ultimately, we demonstrate that local conservation measures can benefit reef ecosystem services but that their impact will vary spatially and temporally. Recognizing where such management interventions will either help or fail is an important step towards both achieving sustainable use of coral‐reef resources and maximizing resource management investments.  相似文献   

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