Mortality from asthma: a new epidemic in New Zealand

Trends in mortality attributed to asthma in the 5-34-year age group were examined in New Zealand, Australia, England and Wales, the United States, Canada, and West Germany for the years 1959-79. An epidemic of deaths from asthma occurred in the mid-1960s in New Zealand, Australia, and England and Wales but not in the other countries. In Australia and England and Wales the death rate quickly returned to pre-epidemic levels, but in New Zealand the decline in mortality was slow, and by 1974 the death rate was still almost double the pre-epidemic level. Of great concern was an abrupt increase in reported deaths from asthma in New Zealand after 1976 with the mortality rate during 1977-9 being greater than during the previous epidemic. In contrast, asthma mortality had remained relatively stable in the other populations.The new epidemic in New Zealand was investigated and appeared to be real. It could not be explained by changes in the classification of deaths from asthma, inaccuracies in death certification, or changes in diagnostic fashions. The most likely explanation appeared to be related to the management of asthma in New Zealand, and this is being investigated.     

Trends in sales of drugs for asthma in New Zealand,Australia, and the United Kingdom, 1975-81.

As part of an investigation into the recent epidemic of deaths from asthma in New Zealand, trends in the sales of drugs for asthma in New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom during 1975-81 were examined. Data on sales of drugs were obtained from an international pharmaceutical market research organisation. A striking increase in sales of sympathomimetic aerosols, steroid aerosols, and theophylline per caput occurred in all three countries, with the greatest increase occurring in New Zealand. Sales of sodium cromoglycate also increased in New Zealand and the UK but fell in Australia. By 1981 New Zealand had the highest sales of all these drugs per caput. Explanations for the rising mortality from asthma in New Zealand despite large increases in drug sales need to be explored. Although the temporal association between mortality and sales of drugs suggests that direct drug toxicity is unlikely, there may be more subtle adverse effects of drug use.     

75 deaths in asthmatics prescribed home nebulisers.

The circumstances surrounding the deaths of 75 asthmatic patients who had been prescribed a domiciliary nebuliser driven by an air compressor pump for administration of high dose beta sympathomimetic drugs were investigated as part of the New Zealand national asthma mortality study. Death was judged unavoidable in 19 patients who seemed to have precipitous attacks despite apparently good long term management. Delays in seeking medical help because of overreliance on beta agonist delivered by nebuliser were evident in 12 cases and possible in a further 11, but these represented only 8% of the 271 verified deaths from asthma in New Zealanders aged under 70 during the period. Evidence for direct toxicity of high dose beta agonist was not found. Nevertheless, the absence of serum potassium and theophylline concentrations and of electrocardiographic monitoring in the period immediately preceding death precluded firm conclusions whether arrhythmias might have occurred due to these factors rather than to hypoxia alone. In most patients prescribed domiciliary nebulisers death was associated with deficiencies in long term and short term care similar to those seen in patients without nebulisers. Discretion in prescribing home nebulisers, greater use of other appropriate drugs, including adequate corticosteroids, and careful supervision and instruction of patients taking beta agonist by nebuliser should help to reduce the mortality from asthma.     

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Background

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.

Methods and Findings

We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010–2012).

Conclusions

We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization''s laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Age specific trends in asthma mortality in England and Wales, 1983-95: results of an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in asthma mortality by age group in England and Wales during 1983-95. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: All deaths classified as having an underlying cause of asthma registered from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Time trends for age specific asthma deaths. RESULTS: Deaths in the age group 5-14 years showed an irregular downward trend during 1983-95; deaths in the age groups 15-44, 45-64, and 65-74 years peaked before 1989 and then showed a downward trend; and deaths in the age group 75-84 years peaked between 1988 and 1993 and subsequently dropped. Trends were: age group 5-14 years, 6% (95% confidence interval 3% to 9%); 15-44 years, 6% (5% to 7%); 45-64 years, 5% (4% to 6%); 65-74 years, 2% (1% to 3%). Deaths in the 75-84 and 85 and over categories plateaued. CONCLUSIONS: There are downward trends in asthma mortality in Britain, which may be due to increased use of prophylactic treatment.     

Circumstances of death from asthma.

Mortality from asthma in England and Wales has remained unchanged for at least 20 years, even in the age group 15-44. Yet in those 20 years "modern" drugs have been introduced for the treatment of asthma, such as beta 2 agonist bronchodilators and corticosteroids. Why do patients still die? Detailed review of the circumstances of 90 deaths from asthma showed that a few were inevitable but that in the remainder four main sets of circumstances in the fatal attack contributed to the death. These were, firstly, the patient''s failure to recognise the severity of the asthma; secondly, very rapid progress in the severity of the attack; thirdly, misjudgment in the management of the attack; and, fourthly, delay from many causes. Patients admitted to hospital with severe acute asthma usually survive. Those at risk of a life threatening attack should be identified and taught to monitor the severity and progress of their asthma objectively. Their direct admission to hospital should be facilitated.     

Child Deaths Due to Injury in the Four UK Countries: A Time Trends Study from 1980 to 2010

Background

Injuries are an increasingly important cause of death in children worldwide, yet injury mortality is highly preventable. Determining patterns and trends in child injury mortality can identify groups at particularly high risk. We compare trends in child deaths due to injury in four UK countries, between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

We obtained information from death certificates on all deaths occurring between 1980 and 2010 in children aged 28 days to 18 years and resident in England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Injury deaths were defined by an external cause code recorded as the underlying cause of death. Injury mortality rates were analysed by type of injury, country of residence, age group, sex and time period.

Results

Child mortality due to injury has declined in all countries of the UK. England consistently experienced the lowest mortality rate throughout the study period. For children aged 10 to 18 years, differences between countries in mortality rates increased during the study period. Inter-country differences were largest for boys aged 10 to 18 years with mortality rate ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.16, 1.64) for Wales, 1.68 (1.48, 1.91) for Scotland and 1.81 (1.50, 2.18) for Northern Ireland compared with England (the baseline) in 2006–10. The decline in mortality due to injury was accounted for by a decline in unintentional injuries. For older children, no declines were observed for deaths caused by self-harm, by assault or from undetermined intent in any UK country.

Conclusion

Whilst child deaths from injury have declined in all four UK countries, substantial differences in mortality rates remain between countries, particularly for older boys. This group stands to gain most from policy interventions to reduce deaths from injury in children.     

The genetics of naturalization: A comparison of morphological variation within and between populations of

Previous work in New Zealand has shewn that genetic variation within populations of Agrostis capillaris can be comparable to that between populations, even between populations over a very wide environmental range. To determine whether this reflects the recent advent of A. capillaris in New Zealand, with a small founding gene pool and a short time for ecotypic differentiation, populations from a comparable range of environments were sampled randomly in the same way in Britain. Populations were grown in comparable conditions in the two countries, but to ensure comparability only proportional variation was examined. Characters used in the assessment of within- and between-population variation were step+sheath length, lamina length, lamina width and relative growth rate. Within populations, there were highly significant genotypic differences, especially in the British populations. Differences between populations were rather greater than those within- populations, and for lamina length this was significant in both countries. For both Britain and New Zealand, there were cases where the two genotypes sampled from a population were similar in a particular character. In some cases, populations from comparable habitats in the two countries were similar to each other. For the three morphological characters, total genotypic variation over all populations sampled was greater in Britain than in New Zealand. For some characters this was due to between-site variation, and for some to within-site variation. It is concluded that some of the evidence for non-adaptation in A. capillaris in New Zealand is caused by a more limited gene pool, and insufficient time for sorting of genotypes into habitats.     

Retrospective study of 1000 deaths from injury in England and Wales

One thousand consecutive deaths from injury in 11 coroner''s districts in England and Wales were reviewed by four independent assessors, who studied necropsy reports to identify deaths in hospital that might have been preventable. Of 514 patients admitted to hospital alive, 102 deaths (20%) were judged by all four assessors to have been potentially preventable. When those cases in which three out of four assessors considered that the death was preventable were added the total rose to 170 (33%). Nearly two thirds of all non-central nervous system deaths were judged to have been preventable. The median age of the 170 patients whose deaths were preventable was 41, and the mean Injury Severity Score was 29. Further analysis suggested that the preventable deaths were principally the result of failure to stop bleeding and prevent hypoxia and the absence of, or delay in, surgical treatment.The results closely parallel those from similar studies from the United States and suggest that there are serious deficiencies in the services for managing severe injury in England and Wales. Debate is needed now on how to correct these deficiencies. In particular, the place of trauma centres must be considered.     

What contribution has cardiac surgery made to the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease?

The number of deaths from coronary artery disease is declining in New Zealand as in some other Western countries. It has been estimated that in 1981 in the Auckland metropolitan area there were 126 fewer deaths than would have been expected from the data in 1974. The contribution made by cardiac surgery to this decline was assessed from the known numbers of patients who were operated on, from their survival rate, and from the predicted mortality of the surgical cohort had they not undergone operation. Such mortality was predicted from past studies of patients with similar symptoms, exercise data, studies of unstable angina, and the coronary artery surgical study registry. From this method it was estimated that coronary surgery accounted for 26% to 42% of the reduction in coronary deaths. Two previous studies estimated, from calculations based on the European study of patients with modest symptoms, that the contribution of cardiac surgery was much lower. Extrapolating data from one subset of patients to a second subset with quite different characteristics is a conceptual fallacy.     

Reforming Women in the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand: A Comparative Ethnography of Welfare Reform in Global Context

Historically, the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand symbolize opposite poles of an individualist-collectivist welfare state continuum. Until recently, Aotearoa/New Zealand was known as a "cradle-to-grave" welfare state, with "universal" employment and coverage in health and education. U.S. history, in contrast, is marked by an unabashed individualism and a residualist approach to welfare. Recent neoliberal reforms, however, have engendered a convergence between the two countries in the conceptualization and organization of assistance for poor single mothers. Most notable are the "workfare" provisions of legislative changes made in 1996 in the two countries, which work to reconstitute poor mothers as potential able-bodied workers. In this article we analyze welfare reform in the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand, with particular reference to how poor single mothers respond to, comply and cope with, or resist neoliberal strategies. Analysis is based on participant-observation, interviews, and focus groups conducted between 1989 and 1999. [welfare reform, neoliberalism, globalization, gender, the United States, Aotearoa/New Zealand]     

Observations on recent increase in mortality from asthma.

The mortality attributed to asthma has increased annually in England and Wales from 1960 to 1965. The increase is more pronounced at ages 5 to 34 years than at older ages and is most pronounced at ages 10 to 14 years. In this last age group the mortality increased nearly eight times in seven years, and in 1966 asthma accounted for 7% of all deaths. No comparable increase has been observed in any other country, but smaller increases at ages 10 to 19 years have been observed in Australasia, Japan, western Europe, and the United States. There is no evidence to suggest that there has been any change in diagnostic habits, certification of deaths, or methods of classification which could account for the increase in Great Britain, and it is concluded that the increase is real. General practitioners'' records provide no evidence of an increase in prevalence and it seems probable that there has been an increase in case fatality. No environmental hazards are known which could have increased the severity of the disease, and the possibility has to be considered that the increase may be due to new methods of treatment. Corticosteroids have been used increasingly since 1952, and in Great Britain the use of pressurized aerosols containing sympathomimetics has increased rapidly since 1960.     

Multiple sclerosis among immigrants in Greater London.

Among immigrants resident in greater London from Europe, Ireland, the USSR, the old Commonwealth countries of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, North and South America, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran the incidence of admission to hospital for probable multiple sclerosis (MS) between 1960 and 1972 was high or moderately high. The incidence was the same order as that found in those born in the United Kingdom. Immigrants from India, Pakistan, and other Asian countries and from new Commonwealth Africa and America, which includes the West Indies, had a low incidence of hospital admission for MS. Immigrants from countries where the risk of MS is low whose parents were born in Europe had a reduced incidence of admission to hospital but not the very low incidence found in those parents were also born in these countries. Emigrating to England from low risk parts of the world did not seem to increase the risk of developing MS.     

Asthma: a major pediatric health issue

The incidence, prevalence, and mortality of asthma have increased in children over the past three to four decades, although there has been some decline in the most recent decade. These trends are particularly marked and of greatest concern in preschool children. Internationally, there are huge variations among countries and continents, as demonstrated by the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood. In general, asthma rates were highest in English-speaking countries (UK, New Zealand, Australia, and North America) and some Latin American countries (Peru and Costa Rica), and lowest in South Korea, Russia, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, and Albania. There is currently no unifying hypothesis to explain these trends or any associated risk factors. Environmental factors that may lead to asthma include air pollution; genetic factors, the hygiene hypothesis, and lifestyle differences also play potentially causative roles. Asthma may develop as a result of persistent activation of the immune system alone or in combination with physiologic airway remodeling in early childhood. Further studies are needed to confirm this hypothesis.     

Epidemiology of chickenpox in England and Wales, 1967-85

Routine sources of data on chickenpox morbidity and mortality in England and Wales were reviewed for 1967-85. Only two epidemics occurred, one in 1967 and one in 1980, both of which were immediately followed by two to three years of low incidence. The age distribution of the disease appears to be changing, with more cases now being reported in children aged 0-4 years. The number of deaths in adults have, however, increased, particularly those deaths that are associated with pneumonia and immunosuppression. At present in England and Wales more deaths are attributed to chickenpox than to whooping cough and mumps.Widespread use of selective immunisation against chickenpox might be justified in England and Wales, but before routine immunisation of the child population can be considered special surveys to determine the incidence and severity of chickenpox and the effect of the vaccine on the subsequent development of herpes zoster are needed as well as cost-benefit studies of immunisation.     

Social deprivation and premature mortality: regional comparison across England.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the pattern and size of the relationship between social deprivation in electoral wards and premature mortality for each health region in England. DESIGN--Ecological study using 1981 census variables and data on mortality for 1981-5. SETTING--14 regional health authorities in England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Mortality under the age of 65 years from all causes, coronary heart disease, and smoking related diseases in men and women. RESULTS--Increasing deprivation was significantly associated with mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, and smoking related diseases. The relationship was linear with no apparent threshold. Correlation coefficients were generally greater for deaths from all causes and smoking related diseases and for men compared with women. The slope of the relationship between deprivation and mortality varied among regions. Variations in mortality still existed between regions for equal levels of deprivation. CONCLUSION--Deprivation of an area and premature mortality are strongly linked. The effects of deprivation can be seen throughout the range of affluence and are not limited to the poorest areas. Current targets for reducing coronary heart disease mortality may be achievable if the mortality in poor areas can be reduced to the rates in affluent areas.     

Climate and Chest Disorders in Schoolchildren

A survey of the respiratory disorders in schoolchildren from rural areas showed no significant differences between the United Kingdom and Australia and New Zealand in loss of time from school owing to chest illness. Contrary to expectations the warmer the region the greater the prevalence of bronchitis, asthma, and hay fever. These results should encourage a critical appraisal of the respiratory benefits of warmer climates, and also suggest that the English climate should prove to be no more than a minor barrier to any future reduction of respiratory mortality in the U.K.     

Perforated Peptic Ulcer in the Vancouver Area: A Survey of 852 Cases

A total of 852 perforations of peptic ulcers occurring in the Greater Vancouver area during the decade 1959-1968 have been studied. The incidence of perforation has declined during this period owing to a decrease in the number of perforations occurring in males. The incidence of perforation was similar to that in the South of England and New Zealand (approximately 10 per 100,000 population) but less than half that reported from Scotland.The sex ratio of 3.6 males to 1 female was similar to that found in other countries. The mean age of the males was 53.9 years and of the females 56.5 years. The peak incidence occurred in the decade 40 to 49 years. Patients with gastric perforations were significantly older than patients with pyloroduodenal perforations.Perforation occurred most frequently in the late afternoon, on Wednesday and during December; least commonly during the night, at the beginning of the week and through September.The pyloroduodenal was the commonest site of perforation (88%) and the usual treatment was simple closure (81%). The overall mortality rate was 18.3% and one-third of all fatalities were due to misdiagnosis. The operative mortality rate was 9%.