Mechanisms of density dependence in fluctuating vole populations: deducing annual density dependence from seasonal processes

Based on recent advances in time-series analyses of ecological dynamics using statistical and mathematical models, we summarise our recent results on the seasonal processes in the annual population dynamics of the grey-sided vole Clethrionomys rufocanus (Sundevall, 1846) in Hokkaido, Japan, and report additional analyses on annual and seasonal density dependence. Annual direct density dependence was strong in almost all populations. In contrast, delayed density dependence was generally weak, although clear delayed density dependence was detected in some of the studied populations. Although seasonal density dependence was observed both in winter and summer, direct density dependence was much more profound during winter; thus, winter density dependence contributed most to the overall annual direct density dependence. We found no correlation between the seasonal components of annual direct density dependence; however, the corresponding seasonal components for annual delayed density dependence were positively correlated. We conclude that winter conditions influence the strength of annual direct density dependence most profoundly. Moreover, we conclude that direct density dependence during summer and winter may be generated by different mechanisms, whereas delayed density dependence seems to be generated by a common mechanism. Candidate mechanisms are discussed in relation to general knowledge of northern rodent populations and to specific insights provided by earlier studies of grey-sided voles in Hokkaido.     

广东省草地贪夜蛾种群周年动态及发生特征

为了明确广东省草地贪夜蛾Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith)种群周年消长动态及发生特征,根据2020年和2021年广东省草地贪夜蛾性诱监测及田间调查数据,分析不同生态区草地贪夜蛾成虫及幼虫种群周年发生动态。结果表明：(1) 草地贪夜蛾在广东省大部分冬种玉米区可以周年繁殖,仅在清远、韶关、河源等地未发现幼虫为害;不同地区之间草地贪夜蛾越冬虫源基数差异较大,粤西发生为害较重,珠三角及粤东地区发生相对较轻;(2) 周年繁殖区草地贪夜蛾成虫和幼虫全年均可发生为害,而季节发生区一般于3-4月才零星始见草地贪夜蛾成虫和幼虫,且诱蛾量、幼虫种群数量及为害程度均相对较低;(3) 广东省草地贪夜蛾种群消长动态呈多峰型,发生高峰期主要集中于5-10月,期间出现多个大小不等的高峰,但峰期、蛾量和虫量在不同地区之间差异较大。本研究明确了广东省不同生态区草地贪夜蛾种群的周年消长动态及发生特征,为广东省乃至全国草地贪夜蛾的早期预警和精准防控提供重要参考。     

The definition of the forms of the epidemic process in intestinal infections]

A method for the identification of the forms of the epidemic process in dysentery (annual, seasonal and outbreak forms) has been worked out. The method is based on the calculation of the upper limits of annual and seasonal morbidity from the data on the period of several years with the use of the formulae of binomial distribution, serving as the mathematical model of alternative random values, such as morbidity. The comparison of actual morbidity for each year of the analyzed period with the upper limits of annual and seasonal morbidity helps identify the form of the epidemic process.     

GRAY WHALES (ESCHRICHTIUS ROBUSTUS) OFF SAKHALIN ISLAND,RUSSIA: SEASONAL AND ANNUAL PATTERNS OF OCCURRENCE1

The annual return, seasonal occurrence, and site fidelity of Korean-Okhotsk or western gray whales on their feeding grounds off northeastern Sakhalin Island, Russia, were assessed by boat-based photo-identification studies in 1994-1998. A total of 262 pods were observed, ranging in size from 1 to 9 whales with an overall mean of 2.0. Sixty-nine whales were individually identified, and a majority of all whales (71.0%) were observed in multiple years. Annual sighting frequencies ranged from 1 to 18 d, with a mean of 5. 4 d. The percentage of whales reidentified from previous years showed a continuous annual increase, reaching 87.0% by the end of the study. Time between first and last sighting of identified individuals within a given year was 1-85 d, with an overall mean of 40.6 d. Annual calf proportions ranged from 4.3% (1997) to 13.2% (1998), and mother-calf separations generally occurred between July and September. The seasonal site fidelity and annual return of whales to this part of the Okhotsk Sea emphasize its importance as a primary feeding ground for this endangered population.     

Combining Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count Data to Evaluate Seasonal Components of Population Change in Northern Bobwhite

Abstract Annual surveys of wildlife populations provide information about annual rates of change in populations but provide no information about when such changes occur. However, by combining data from 2 annual surveys, conducted in different parts of the year, seasonal components of population change can be estimated. We describe a hierarchical model for simultaneous analysis of 2 continent-scale monitoring programs. The Christmas Bird Count is an early winter survey, whereas the North American Breeding Bird Survey is conducted in June. Combining information from these surveys permits estimation of seasonal population variance components and improves estimation of long-term population trends. The composite analysis also controls for survey-specific sampling effects. We applied the model to estimation of population change in northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). Over the interval 1969–2004, bobwhite populations declined, with trend estimate of −3.56% per year (95% CI = [−3.80%, −3.32%]) in the surveyed portion of their range. Our analysis of seasonal population variance components indicated that northern bobwhite populations changed more in the winter and spring portion of the year than in the summer and fall portion of the year. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(1):44–51; 2008)     

A temporally explicit species distribution model for a long distance avian migrant,the common cuckoo

Modelling the distribution of migratory species has rarely been extended beyond breeding and wintering ranges despite many species showing much more complex movement patterns with multiple stopovers. We aimed to create a temporally explicit species distribution model describing the full annual distribution cycle, and use it to model the complex seasonal shifts in distribution of the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus, a declining long‐distance migrant. To do this we used full‐year satellite telemetry occurrence data, with their associated temporal information, to inform a temporally explicit species distribution model using MaxEnt. The resulting full‐year distribution model was highly predictive (AUC = 0.894) and appeared to have generality at the species‐level despite being informed by data from a single breeding population. Comparison of our methodology with seasonal distribution models describing the breeding, winter and migration ranges separately showed that our full‐year method provided more general and extensive predictions and performed better when tested with an independent dataset. When species distribution models based on a single season exclude environmental conditions experienced by birds in other parts of the annual cycle they risk underestimating niche breadth and neglecting the importance of stopover habitat. Conversely, models which simply average conditions across a season may miss the significance of finer scale within‐season movements and overestimate niche breadth. In contrast, our framework for a full‐year migrant distribution model successfully captures the finer‐scale changes expected in seasonal environments and can be used to inform conservation management at every stage of migration. The full‐year model framework appears to produce temporal distribution models generalised to the species‐level from occurrence data limited to few individuals of a single population and may have particular utility when aiming to describe the distribution of species with complex migration patterns from telemetry data.     

Weak breeding seasonality of a songbird in a seasonally arid tropical environment arises from individual flexibility and strongly seasonal moult

In some tropical birds, breeding seasonality is weak at the population level, even where there are predictable seasonal peaks in environmental conditions. It therefore remains unclear whether individuals are adapted to breeding at specific times of the year or flexible to variable environmental conditions. We tested whether the relative year‐round breeding activity of the Common Bulbul Pycnonotus barbatus arises due to within‐individual variability in breeding dates. We collected data from 827 birds via mist‐netting over 2 years with corresponding local weather data. We used a combination of climate envelope and generalized linear mixed models to explore how the timing of breeding is influenced by time of year, individual variation, rainfall and temperature in a West African savannah where seasonal precipitation determines annual variation in environmental conditions. We also pooled 65 breeding records from 19 individuals recorded between 2006 and 2017 based on brood patch occurrence and behavioural observation to compare within‐individual and population variability in breeding dates. We show that the breeding dates of individuals may be as variable as for the population as a whole. However, we observed a seasonal peak in juvenile occurrence that varies significantly between years. Models suggest no relationship between nesting and moult, and within‐year variation in rainfall and temperature, and birds were unlikely to breed during moult but may do so afterwards. Moult was very seasonal, correlating strongly with day length. We suggest that because environmental conditions permit year‐round breeding, and because reproductive output is subject to high predation risk, there is probably a weak selection for individuals to match breeding with variable peak conditions in the environment. Instead, moult, which always occurs annually and successfully, is probably under strong selection to match variable peak conditions in the environment so that long‐term survival ensures future reproduction.     

Annual Rhythm of Body Weight in Przewalski Horses (Equus ferus przewalskii)

The live-weight of female Przewalski horses in a semi-natural reserve has been recorded continuously over 6 years by means of an automatic weighing machine and automatic identification. Data were tested for cyclic as well as for linear trend effects and a mathematical model was developed. A clear annual rhythm of live-weight with the maximum in October was demonstrated. During the first 2 years of recording, the level of the annual rhythm was constant but, thereafter, different individual trends were found. Those individuals showing a steeply rising trend suffered from laminitis after three annual cycles. The periods of rising body weight corresponded to unusual mild winters. Animals newly introduced into the reserve from zoos showed a rise in their body weight in an adaptation phase. Furthermore, there was evidence for a phase adjustment of the annual rhythm. The results are discussed against a background of the theory of annual rhythms, and can be used as a basis for seasonal variations of feeding in zoos and for a re-evaluation of recommendations for population density in similar reserves. For reintroductions as well as for a transfer from zoos to semi-natural reserves, a longer adaptation phase is recommended.     

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate.     

Cetaceans of Southeast Alaska: distribution and seasonal occurrence

Aim To assess the distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends of cetaceans. Location The study area included all major inland waters of Southeast Alaska. Methods Between 1991 and 2007, cetacean surveys were conducted by observers who kept a constant watch when the vessel was underway and recorded all cetaceans encountered. For each species, we examined distributional patterns, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends. Analysis of variance (anova F) was used to test for differences in group sizes between multiple means, and Student’s t‐test was used to detect differences between pairwise means. Cetacean seasonal occurrence and annual trends were investigated using a generalized linear model framework. Results Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were seen throughout the region, with numbers lowest in spring and highest in the fall. Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) distributions were more restricted than that reported for humpback whales, and the low number of sightings precluded evaluating seasonal trends. Three killer whale (Orcinus orca) eco‐types were documented with distributions occurring throughout inland waters. Seasonal patterns were not detected or could not be evaluated for resident and offshore killer whales, respectively; however, the transient eco‐type was more abundant in the summer. Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) were distributed throughout the region, with more sightings in spring and summer than in fall. Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution was clumped, with concentrations occurring in the Icy Strait/Glacier Bay and Wrangell areas and with no evidence of seasonality. Pacific white‐sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) were observed only occasionally, with more sightings in the spring. For most species, group size varied on both an annual and seasonal basis. Main conclusions Seven cetacean species occupy the inland waters of Southeast Alaska, with distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends varying by species. Future studies that compare spatial and temporal patterns with other features (e.g. oceanography, prey resources) may help in identifying the key factors that support the high density and biodiversity of cetaceans found in this region. An increased understanding of the region’s marine ecology is an essential step towards ensuring the long‐term conservation of cetaceans in Southeast Alaska.     

我国草地螟轻发年份时空特征及其气候背景

揭示我国草地螟在长时间序列上的年度间变化规律,探明轻发年份特点和研究意义,阐释气候变化背景对草地螟发生的影响方式。分析了1949—2012年我国草地螟发生面积的时间序列和轻重年份差异,利用2006—2012年北方主发区每年各代次各虫态发生期出现时间、有效持续时间和发生县点数等数据分析了轻发年份的时空分布特征。在1951—2012年可追溯的时间序列上,研究了北方草地螟主发区(169个具有连续气象资料的发生站点)年平均气温、1月月平均气温、6—8月累计降雨量等气候背景变化趋势与草地螟年度发生动态的相关性。结果表明:(1)在62年的长时间序列上,我国草地螟轻发年份频次多于重发年份;(2)轻发年份的总体特征是发生期迟、发生盛期短、发生区域少;(3)大尺度气象条件变化是引起草地螟年度发生动态波动的重要因素,与1951—2012年年度发生面积进行相关分析发现,年平均气温和1月份月平均气温与草地螟发生面积呈显著正相关关系,6—8月累计降雨量与发生面积呈显著负相关关系。分析指出,轻发年份是草地螟种群长期消长动态中不可忽视的环节,对轻发年份的研究是揭示其年度发生变化规律的重要途径;在长时间序列的分析方法上,可采用年度发生(幼虫)面积作为判断轻重年份发生程度的主要量化指标;利用草地螟发生区多点大尺度气象数据,与年度发生面积进行相关性分析,可作为阐释气候背景影响草地螟长期发生趋势的方法之一。     

High predictability of the seasonal dynamics of a species-like Polynucleobacter population in a freshwater lake

One of the key questions in microbial ecology is if seasonal patterns of bacterial community composition (BCC) observed in one year repeat in the following years. We have investigated if the recorded annual dynamics of a species-like Polynucleobacter (subcluster PnecB) population allowed the prediction of the population dynamics in another year. The abundance of PnecB bacteria in the pelagic of temperate Lake Mondsee was investigated by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) over three consecutive years. The PnecB bacteria formed a persistent population, and were present in the entire water body of the lake. Two of the three investigated years differed strongly in summer temperatures and precipitation, which resulted in markedly different growth conditions. But despite of these different environmental conditions, the PnecB population demonstrated remarkably similar seasonal dynamics in the three investigated years. Water temperature was the best predictor of the population dynamics during the first half of the annual cycles. Statistical analysis also indicated influences of phytoplankton and metazooplankton successions on the PnecB population dynamics. Furthermore, 65 lakes and ponds were investigated for the presence of PnecB bacteria. They were detected in the majority (78%) of circum-neutral and alkaline freshwater habitats, but not in any investigated acidic or saline habitat.     

Dynamic and temporal structure of the troglobitic beetle Speonomus hydrophilus (Coleoptera: Bathyscimae)

The population ecology of the beetle Speonomus hydrophilus , occurring both in caves (reduced fluctuations in many abiotic parameters) and under the deepest layer of soil in mountains (MSS, more exposed to climatic variations), was studied in four habitats in the French central Pyrenees We have assessed some of the characteristics of the environment where these populations occur c g physical data (altitude and exposure), geologic data (nature of the parent-rock) and abiotic parameters (temperature with its seasonal fluctuations) and we investigated the relative importance of environmental structure and ecological characteristics on the temporal organization of S hydrophilus and the troglobitic fauna which cohabits The climatic study shows the existence of an annual thermal cycle which is regular and well marked for the MSS habitats but slightly out of phase with the surface cycle These periodic variations however slight may be stressful for troglobitic species In the MSS populations, the phenology of the entire community is reflected in the pattern seen in Speonomus The analysis of faunal profiles shows that samples follow the same seasonal succession during the annual cycle A potential seasonal rhythm of emergence may reflect a seasonal rhythm of vitellogenesis which produces a rhythm of egg-laying     

The food of brown trout in Llyn Alaw, Anglesey, North Wales

The results of the analysis of the contents of 274 brown trout stomachs taken over a period of one year from Llyn Alaw, in Anglesey, North Wales, are described. The annual composition and seasonal changes of the diet were determined using number, volume and occurrence methods. The bottom fauna is classified according to accessibility to the trout as food and the utilization and apparent selection of the fauna by the trout is discussed. Food in relation to trout size is considered in detail.     

Modelling the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata: model structure and validation for the Turkish context

A mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata is proposed that consists of 2 host components: the Hyalomma tick population and a compartmental model of T. annulata infection in the cattle population. The model was parameterized using data describing tick infestation and the infection status of cattle in Turkey from 2006 to 2008. The tick attachment rates are highly seasonal and because of the temporal separation of infectious and susceptible ticks virtually all ticks are infected by carrier cattle, so that annual peaks of disease in cattle do not impact on infection in the Hyalomma tick population. The impact of intervention measures that target the tick population both on the host and in the environment and their impact on the transmission of T. annulata were investigated. Interventions that have a limited 'one-off' impact and interventions that have a more permanent impact were both considered. The results from the model show the importance of targeting ticks during the period when they have left their first host as nymphs but have yet to feed on their second host.     

Prey behavior, age-dependent vulnerability, and predation rates

Variation in the temporal pattern of vulnerability can provide important insights into predator-prey relationships and the evolution of antipredator behavior. We illustrate these points with a system that has coyotes (Canis latrans) as a predator and two species of congeneric deer (Odocoileus spp.) as prey. The deer employ different antipredator tactics (aggressive defense vs. flight) that result in contrasting patterns of age-dependent vulnerability in their probability of being captured when encountered by coyotes. We use long-term survival data and a simple mathematical model to show that (1) species differences in age-dependent vulnerability are reflected in seasonal predation rates and (2) seasonal variation in prey vulnerability and predator hunt activity, which can be associated with the availability of alternative prey, interact to shape seasonal and annual predation rates for each prey species. Shifting hunt activity from summer to winter, or vice versa, alleviated annual mortality on one species and focused it on the other. Our results indicate that seasonal variation in prey vulnerability and hunt activity interact to influence the impact that a predator has on any particular type of prey. Furthermore, these results indicate that seasonal variation in predation pressure is an important selection pressure shaping prey defenses.     

Several epidemiologic features of the spread of chickenpox and herpes zoster]

Epidemiological and statistical data of herpes zoster and chickenpox by such indices as morbidity level, periodicity and month-by-month changes in the incidence of these diseases were compared. The study included 2345 herpes zoster and 11116 chickenpox cases in the course of 5 years (1972--1976). In comparison with herpes zoster, the intensity of chickenpox spread among the population was on the average 4.7 times greater. Of the total number of chickenpox cases the percentage of herpes zoster contituted 21.0. Chickenpox morbidity had marked seasonal cyclic nature with the amplitude of seasonal variations of about 8; as to herpes zoster--there was no annual or seasonal cyclicity. Thus, in the development of chickenpox and herpes zoster epidemic process there was revealed a peculiar tendency inherent to each of these infections; no common epidemiological and statistical regularities in the spread intensity, annual periodicity and seasonal cyclicity were detected.     

Small-scale altitudinal effects on reproduction in bank voles

Elevation gradients and corresponding changes in environment have the potential to affect seasonal reproduction and mortality and hence the seasonal age structure of animal populations. This has been frequently shown in mammals and birds on larger geographic scales, but evidence for small-scale gradient effects is scanty. We studied such small scale altitudinal effects on the proportions of juveniles in a population of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in a forested habitat along an elevation gradient of 355 m. This was done by regular live trapping in different altitudes over a two-year period. We also measured altitudinal differences in ambient temperatures and vegetational parameters in order to shed light on the underlying mechanisms of such purported differences in age structure. As could be expected for a seasonal breeder, the proportion of juveniles showed an initial increase in spring, an optimum in summer and a subsequent regression in early autumn, reflecting the seasonal pattern of reproduction. In addition, there was evidence for altitudinal effects on the occurrence of juveniles, which was decreased in higher altitudes, assumingly driven by altitudinal differences in onset and/or intensity of annual breeding activity. This altitudinal gradient in juvenile occurrence was partly explained by corresponding differences in ambient temperatures. Furthermore, there was good support that the higher abundance of herbs in lower altitudes played an important role in explaining the altitudinal differences in the proportion of juveniles. In conclusion, our study strongly supports the existence of altitudinal small-scale gradient effects on reproductive parameters in a small rodent, most probably due to the action of altitude-related factors such as microclimate and vegetational parameters.     

Trends in annual and seasonal survival of Pink-footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus

Adult Pink-footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus from the Svalbard breeding population were neck-banded and resighted in staging and wintering areas outside the breeding season 1990–1999. We estimated annual and seasonal survival using capture–recapture statistical models. Mean annual survival was 0.829, declining over the study period from 0.90 to 0.79. The annual cycle was partitioned into three periods: summer (1 April–30 September), including both spring and autumn migration, autumn (1 October–31 December), including most shooting, and winter (1 January–31 March). The parsimonious model selected to describe seasonal survival included a declining trend in summer survival, constant autumn and winter survival with lower survival in the severe winter of 1996, and an additive effect of sex on summer and winter survival. Monthly survival was highest during winter. Decreasing summer survival was the main contributor to the overall decline in annual survival, and was attributed mainly to increasing natural mortality on the breeding grounds. Mean annual survival based on the seasonal survival probabilities was 0.835 for females and 0.805 for males. The effect of sex was most pronounced during summer and remains to be explained.     

Seasonal diets of red foxes in a boreal forest with a dense population of moose: the importance of winter scavenging

In Scandinavia, an increased red fox Vulpes vulpes density during the last decades has been suggested to be caused by direct and indirect human influences on food availability. Recently, attention has been focused on the role of increasing scavenging opportunities due to intensified hunting of ungulates and the reestablishment of large carnivores. In our study, we investigated seasonal and annual variations in diet composition of red fox in Varaldskogen, SE Norway, an area with cyclic voles and a high density of moose Alces alces. Analyses of scats revealed significant differences among seasons in the occurrence of ungulates—mainly moose—and ungulates were the dominating food category during winter (44.9 % of all remains). Snow tracking of red fox (71 km) in winter confirmed the importance of ungulate carcasses, i.e. one case of scavenging per 3 km. The proportions of voles were high during all seasons (11.2–28.8 %); in spite of variation in available abundances, no significant seasonal or annual differences were detected. Other food categories with seasonal variation were birds, berries/seeds and amphibians/reptiles, all more common in snow-free seasons. Our study underlines the importance of ungulate remains during periods when the abundance and diversity of alternative food sources is low. Increased and stabilized populations of red foxes—mediated through remains from hunting and wolf kills from high moose populations—might have an important effect on the population dynamics of small game. Hence, we recommend that this relationship be given attention in future studies.