NicheA: creating virtual species and ecological niches in multivariate environmental scenarios

Robust methods by which to generate virtual species are needed urgently in the emerging field of distributional ecology to evaluate performance of techniques for modeling ecological niches and species distributions and to generate new questions in biogeography. Virtual species provide the opportunity to test hypotheses and methods based on known and unbiased distributions. We present Niche Analyst (NicheA), a toolkit developed to generate virtual species following the Hutchinsonian approach of an n‐multidimensional space occupied by the species. Ecological niche models are generated, analyzed, and visualized in an environmental space, and then projected to the geographic space in the form of continuous or binary species distribution models. NicheA is implemented in a stable and user‐friendly Java platform. The software, online manual, and user support are freely available at < http://nichea.sourceforge.net >.     

Species distribution models for Peruvian plantcutter improve with consideration of biotic interactions

Biotic interactions have been controversial in distributional ecology, mainly in regards to whether they have effects over broad extents, with the negative view known as the Eltonian noise hypothesis (ENH). In this study, we evaluated the ENH for Phytotoma raimondii, a restricted‐range Peruvian endemic bird species: we developed models based on 1) only abiotic conditions, 2) only host plant distributions, and 3) both abiotic conditions and host plant distributions; models were evaluated with partial receiver operating characteristic test and Akaike information criteria metrics. We rejected the ENH for this case: biotic interactions improved the model. The frequency with which exceptions to the ENH are detected has important implications for distributional ecology and methods for estimating distributions of species.     

The habitat requirements of four sympatric rock‐dwelling macropods of the Australian monsoon tropics

A high diversity of rock‐dwelling macropod species inhabit the tropics of the Northern Territory, Australia. Within this region, individual species have varied distributions, with ranges variously being widespread, restricted, or geographically disjunct with variable levels of sympatry between them. The cause of these patterns is unknown and little is known of the ecology of these rock‐dwelling macropods. We hypothesized that differences in the habitat requirements is the key to understanding the biogeography and sympatry of the species. We examined this hypothesis at both regional and local scales. We analysed records of occurence of Petrogale brachyotis, P. concinna, Macropus bernardus and M. robustus and environmental correlates (such as geology type, vegetation type, distance to drainage and distance to ‘rugged’ terrain) throughout the monsoon tropics using geographic information systems and generalized linear modelling. We surveyed 80 sites across the tropics of the Northern Territory and collected presence‐absence data using scats and environmental correlates to examine fine‐scale habitat requirements. From the regional scale analysis, it was clear that distance to rugged terrain strongly influences presence of all four species. Responses to this variable suggest M. bernardus and P. concinna have greater requirements for rugged terrain, whereas M. robustus and P. brachyotis are found across a broader range of habitats. The local scale analysis suggested presence of M. robustus is primarily driven by vegetation type, M. bernardus by the cover of outcrops, boulders and large rocks, and P. brachyotis by the density of caves. Although these species overlap in their use of habitats, there are also differences in their habitat requirements that are likely to play a role in their niche separation and in some cases their biogeography. However, it is apparent that the distributions of the species have also been influenced by historical factors given the absence of these species from some apparently suitable sites.     

Environmental change,shifting distributions,and habitat conservation plans: A case study of the California gnatcatcher

Many species have already experienced distributional shifts due to changing environmental conditions, and analyzing past shifts can help us to understand the influence of environmental stressors on a species as well as to analyze the effectiveness of conservation strategies. We aimed to (1) quantify regional habitat associations of the California gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica ); (2) describe changes in environmental variables and gnatcatcher distributions through time; (3) identify environmental drivers associated with habitat suitability changes; and (4) relate habitat suitability changes through time to habitat conservation plans. Southern California's Western Riverside County (WRC ), an approximately 4,675 km² conservation planning area. We assessed environmental correlates of distributional shifts of the federally threatened California gnatcatcher (hereafter, gnatcatcher) using partitioned Mahalanobis D ² niche modeling for three time periods: 1980–1997, 1998–2003, and 2004–2012, corresponding to distinct periods in habitat conservation planning. Highly suitable gnatcatcher habitat was consistently warmer and drier and occurred at a lower elevation than less suitable habitat and consistently had more CSS , less agriculture, and less chaparral. However, its relationship to development changed among periods, mainly due to the rapid change in this variable. Likewise, other aspects of highly suitable habitat changed among time periods, which became cooler and higher in elevation. The gnatcatcher lost 11.7% and 40.6% of highly suitable habitat within WRC between 1980–1997 to 1998–2003, and 1998–2003 to 2004–2012, respectively. Unprotected landscapes lost relatively more suitable habitat (?64.3%) than protected landscapes (30.5%). Over the past four decades, suitable habitat loss within WRC , especially between the second and third time periods, was associated with temperature‐related factors coupled with landscape development across coastal sage scrub habitat; however, development appears to be driving change more rapidly than climate change. Our study demonstrates the importance of providing protected lands for potential suitable habitat in future scenarios.     

Does GARP really fail miserably? A response to Stockman et al. (2006)

Stockman et al. (2006 ) found that ecological niche models built using DesktopGARP ‘failed miserably’ to predict trapdoor spider (genus Promyrmekiaphila) distributions in California. This apparent failure of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐Set Production) was actually a failure of the authors’ methods, that is, attempting to build ecological niche models using single data points. In this paper, we present a re‐analysis of their original data using standard methods with the data appropriately partitioned into training/testing subsets. This re‐evaluation generated accurate distributional predictions that we contrast with theirs. We address the consequences of model‐building using single data points and the need for a foundational understanding of the principles of ecological niche modelling.     

Habitat distribution models for intertidal seaweeds: responses to climatic and non‐climatic drivers

Aim Because intertidal organisms often live close to their physiological tolerance limits, they are potentially sensitive indicators of climate‐driven changes in the environment. The goals of this study were to assess the effect of climatic and non‐climatic factors on the geographical distribution of intertidal macroalgae, and to predict future distributions under different climate‐warming scenarios. Location North‐western Iberian Peninsula, southern Europe. Methods We developed distribution models for six ecologically important intertidal seaweed species. Occurrence and microhabitat data were sampled at 1‐km² resolution and analysed with climate variables measured at larger spatial scales. We used generalized linear models and applied the deviance and Bayesian information criterion to model the relationship between environmental variables and the distribution of each target species. We also used hierarchical partitioning (HP) to identify predictor variables with higher independent explanatory power. Results The distributions of Himanthalia elongata and Bifurcaria bifurcata were correlated with measures of terrestrial and marine climate, although in opposite directions. Model projections under two warming scenarios indicated the extinction of the former at a faster rate in the Cantabrian Sea (northern Spain) than in the Atlantic (west). In contrast, these models predicted an increase in the occurrence of B. bifurcata in both areas. The occurrences of Ascophyllum nodosum and Pelvetia canaliculata, species showing rather static historical distributions, were related to specific non‐climatic environmental conditions and locations, such as the location of sheltered sites. At the southernmost distributional limit, these habitats may present favourable microclimatic conditions or provide refuges from competitors or natural enemies. Model performances for Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus were similar and poor, but several climatic variables influenced the occurrence of the latter in the HP analyses. Main conclusions The correlation between species distributions and climate was evident for two species, whereas the distributions of the others were associated with non‐climatic predictors. We hypothesize that the distribution of F. serratus responds to diverse combinations of factors in different sections of the north‐west Iberian Peninsula. Our study shows how the response of species distributions to climatic and non‐climatic variables may be complex and vary geographically. Our analyses also highlight the difficulty of making predictions based solely on variation in climatic factors measured at coarse spatial scales.     

Phylogeography of the medically important mosquito Aedes (Ochlerotatus) vigilax (Diptera: Culicidae) in Australasia

Aim Within Australia the Carpentaria Barrier has been identified as an important biogeographical barrier. Here we test this long‐standing hypothesis using a medically important mosquito, Aedes (Ochlerotatus) vigilax. Location We obtained samples of Ae. vigilax from throughout its Australian distribution and from New Caledonia. Methods We constructed a distributional database from 602,417 specimens and obtained sequence data from 66 female specimens from 16 localities. The distributional database of Ae. vigilax comprised historical data from 13 organizations and was used to develop our molecular sampling strategy. Genetic structure within Ae. vigilax was examined via haplotype networks, F_ST values, analysis of molecular variance and neutrality test statistics based on one mitochondrial (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, COI) and two nuclear (alpha amalyse and zinc finger) loci. The historical demography of Ae. vigilax was investigated using extended Bayesian skyline plot (EBSP) methods, with past migration rates estimated using migrate . Results We identified three distinct lineages within Ae. vigilax; however, two of the three lineages show a large distributional overlap across the Carpentaria Barrier. The mitochondrial locus suggested a pattern of significant genetic differentiation, with high F_ST values, significant genetic differentiation within the COI locus, and significantly more variation between the lineages than within. A higher number of migrants per generation were estimated for the overlapping lineages and both the neutrality test statistics and EBSP suggested the occurrence of post‐population expansion in these lineages. Main conclusions Significant deviation from genetic neutrality, in combination with estimates of migration and the demographic history of Ae. vigilax lineages, suggests that the incongruence of the Ae. vigilax phylogeny with the hypothesized Carpentaria Barrier could be attributed to the separation of eastern and western populations of Ae. vigilax around 770 ka and subsequent secondary contact within the last 100 kyr. Sea‐level and precipitation fluctuations within the Carpentaria area during the late Quaternary could have facilitated the current biogeographical patterns of Ae. vigilax. Mosquitoes represent one of the most medically important insect groups; however, understanding the factors that influence past and present distributions of mosquitoes is critical in the face of a range of emerging arboviruses.     

Dispersal limitation and geographical distributions of mammal species

Aim To relate the dispersal limitation of endemic terrestrial mammals in Mexico to species life‐history traits and latitude. Location Mexico. Methods We modelled species ecological niches projected as potential distributions (P) using point occurrence data and 19 environmental variables for 89 endemic mammal species, and compared the areas covered by these ecological niche models with maps of species actual distributions (R) based on minimum convex polygons connecting marginal records based on museum specimens. We correlated body mass, food habits (herbivore, omnivore, insectivore, frugivore/granivore), volant and non‐volant (fossorial, arboreal, terrestrial) habits and mean latitude to the proportion of occupancy of species potential distributional areas (R/P). Results R and P were significantly positively correlated, with an overall average R/P ratio of 0.49. Less than half of the endemics (41 species) had a high occupancy (R/P values ranging from 0.50 to 0.90); a few (four species) showed full occupancy (> 0.90). Body mass and food habits were not correlated with R/P, but latitude showed significant correlations with R/P; volant mammals tended to show higher R/P values than non‐volant mammals. Main conclusions Few species filled most of the spatial extent of their ecological niches. Life‐history traits were generally poor predictors of proportional occupancy of species potential distributions. Endemics occurring at higher latitudes showed higher occupancy, suggesting that abiotic factors are likely to limit their distributions. Conversely, species at lower latitudes showed lower occupancy, suggesting that their distributions are limited by biotic factors and/or by geographical or historical barriers that prevent dispersal. The dispersal abilities of volant compared with non‐volant endemics can explain the higher occupancy in species potential distributions in the former group. These trends provide a baseline for exploring the importance of life‐history traits and abiotic versus biotic factors in limiting species distributions.     

Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America: insights from predictive models

Aim Predictive models of species’ distributions use occurrence records and environmental data to produce a model of the species’ requirements and a map of its potential distribution. To determine regions of suitable environmental conditions and assess biogeographical questions regarding their ranges, we modelled the potential geographical distributions of two spiny pocket mice (Rodentia: Heteromyidae) in north‐western South America. Location North‐western South America. Methods We used the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐Set Prediction (GARP), environmental data from GIS maps and georeferenced collection localities from a recent systematic review of Heteromys australis and H. anomalus to produce the models. Results GARP models indicate the potential presence of H. australis throughout mesic montane regions of north‐western South America, as well as in some lowland regions of moderately high precipitation. In contrast, H. anomalus is predicted to occur primarily in drier areas of the Caribbean coast and rain‐shadowed valleys of the Andes. Conclusions The models support the disjunct status of the population of H. australis in the Cordillera de Mérida, but predict a continuous distribution between known populations of H. anomalus in the upper Magdalena Valley and the Caribbean coast. Regions of suitable environmental conditions exist disjunct from known distributional areas for both species, suggesting possible historical restrictions to their ranges. This technique holds wide application to other study systems.     

Tracing the origin of disjunct distributions: a case of biogeographical convergence in Pyrgus butterflies

Aim To study the biogeographical factors responsible for the current disjunct distributions of two closely related species of butterflies (Pyrgus cinarae and Pyrgus sidae, Lepidoptera: Hesperioidea). Both species have small populations in the Iberian Peninsula that are isolated by more than 1000 km from their nearest conspecifics. Because these species possess similar ecological preferences and geographical distributions, they are excellent candidates for congruent biogeographical histories. Location The Palaearctic region, with a special focus on the Mediterranean peninsulas as glacial refugia. Methods We integrated phylogeography and population genetic analyses with ecological niche modelling. The mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) and the non‐coding nuclear marker internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) were analysed for 62 specimens of P. cinarae and for 80 of P. sidae to infer phylogeography and to date the origin of disjunct distributions. Current and ancestral [Last Glacial Maximum using MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) and CCSM (Community Climate System Model) circulation models] distribution models were calculated with Maxent . Using present climatic conditions, we delimited the ecological space for each species. Results The genetic structure and potential ancestral distribution of the two species were markedly different. While the Iberian population of P. cinarae had an old origin (c. 1 Ma), that of P. sidae was closely related to French and Italian lineages (which jointly diverged from eastern populations c. 0.27 Ma). Ecological niche modelling showed that minor differences in the ecological preferences of the two species seem to account for their drastically different distributional response to the last glacial to post‐glacial environmental conditions. Although the potential distribution of P. cinarae was largely unaffected by climate change, suitable habitat for P. sidae strongly shifted in both elevation and latitude. This result might explain the early origin of the disjunct distribution of P. cinarae, in contrast to the more recent disjunction of P. sidae. Main conclusions We show that convergent biogeographical patterns can be analysed with a combination of genetic and ecological niche modelling data. The results demonstrate that species with similar distributional patterns and ecology may still have different biogeographical histories, highlighting the importance of including the temporal dimension when studying biogeographical patterns.     

Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Salamander Distribution in the Highlands of Central Mexico1

A generalized decline of amphibian populations is occurring worldwide. The causes for such a decline are not completely understood; however, climate change has been identified as a possible cause for amphibian extinction, among others. Ecological niche modeling has proven to be a useful tool to predict potential distribution of species in the context of climatic changes. In this paper, we used the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Prediction (GARP) to model the potential distributions of two species of plethodontid salamanders: Pseudoeurycea cephalica and P. leprosa. We projected their potential distributions under climatic scenarios expected in 50 yr based on a conservative scenario of global climate change and assuming a moderate dispersal ability for both species. Our analyses suggest that climate change effects may pose an additional long‐term risk to both species of plethodontid salamanders, with a more dramatic scenario in the case of P. leprosa. By the year 2050, this species may lose almost 75 percent of its distributional area, and this projection is even worse when deforestation (in the way it is occurring at present) is considered within the predicted model. Our results concur with those obtained for species with limited dispersal capability because they do not track changing climates, but rather face a loss of distributional area. The survival of these species is not secure, even though their potential distributional area falls within a considerable number of natural protected areas.     

Hydroperiod,predators and the distribution of physid snails across the freshwater habitat gradient

1. Studies of species distributions across environmental gradients further our understanding of mechanisms regulating species diversity at the landscape scale. For some freshwater taxa the habitat gradient from small, shallow and temporary ponds to large, deep and permanent lakes has been shown to be an important environmental axis. Freshwater snails are key players in freshwater ecosystems, but there are no comprehensive studies of their distributions across the entire freshwater habitat gradient. Here we test the hypothesis that snail species in the family Physidae are distributed in a non‐random manner across the habitat gradient. We sampled the snails, their predators and the abiotic environment of 61 ponds and lakes, spanning a wide range in depth and hydroperiod. 2. Temporary habitats had the lowest biomass of predators. Shallow permanent ponds had the highest biomass of invertebrate predators but an intermediate fish biomass. Deep ponds and lakes had the highest fish biomass and intermediate invertebrate biomass. Five species of physids occurred in the regional species pool and 60 of the 61 ponds and lakes surveyed contained physid snails. Each pond and lake contained an average of just 1.2 physid species, illustrating limited membership in local communities and substantial among‐site heterogeneity in species composition. 3. Physids showed strong sorting along the habitat gradient, with Physa vernalis found in the shortest hydroperiod ponds and Aplexa elongata, P. gyrina, P. acuta and P. ancillaria found in habitats of successively greater permanence. When organised into a site‐by‐species incidence matrix with sites ordered according to their hydroperiods, we found the pattern of incidence to be highly coherent, showing that much of the heterogeneity in species composition from one pond to another is explained by hydroperiod. We also found that the number of species replacements along this gradient was higher than random, showing that replacement is more important than nesting in describing species composition in ponds of different hydroperiod. 4. Discriminant analysis showed that pond depth, invertebrate biomass and fish biomass were the best predictors of species composition. Analysis of these niche dimensions showed that P. vernalis and A. elongata were most successful in shallow, temporary ponds with few predators. P. gyrina and P. acuta were typically found in ponds of intermediate depth and high predator abundance. P. ancillaria was found in the deepest lakes, which had abundant fish predators but few invertebrate predators. Of the five species considered, P. ancillaria, P. vernalis and A. elongata were relatively specialised with regard to key habitat characteristics, P. gyrina was moderately generalised and P. acuta was remarkably generalised, since it alone occurred across the entire freshwater habitat gradient. The exceptional habitat breadth of P. acuta stands in contrast to distributional studies of other freshwater taxa and deserves further attention.     

Population genetic analysis of a recent range expansion: mechanisms regulating the poleward range limit in the volcano barnacle Tetraclita rubescens

As range shifts coincident with climate change have become increasingly well documented, efforts to describe the causes of range boundaries have increased. Three mechanisms—genetic impoverishment, migration load, or a physical barrier to dispersal—are well described theoretically, but the data needed to distinguish among them have rarely been collected. We describe the distribution, abundance, genetic variation, and environment of Tetraclita rubescens, an intertidal barnacle that expanded its northern range limit by several hundreds of kilometres from San Francisco, CA, USA, since the 1970s. We compare geographic variation in abundance with abiotic and biotic patterns, including sea surface temperatures and the distributions of 387 co‐occurring species, and describe genetic variation in cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, mitochondrial noncoding region, and nine microsatellite loci from 27 locations between Bahia Magdalena (California Baja Sur, Mexico) and Cape Mendocino (CA, USA). We find very high gene flow, high genetic diversity, and a gradient in physical environmental variation coincident with the range limit. We infer that the primary cause of the northern range boundary in T. rubescens is migration load arising from flow of maladapted alleles into peripheral locations and that environmental change, which could have reduced selection against genotypes immigrating into the newly colonized portion of the range, is the most likely cause of the observed range expansion. Because environmental change could similarly affect all taxa in a region whose distributional limits are established by migration load, these mechanisms may be common causes of range boundaries and largely synchronous multi‐species range expansions.     

On the distribution of developmental errors: comparing the normal, gamma, and log-normal distribution

The amount of between‐individual variation in the unobservable developmental instability (DI) has been the subject of intense recent debates. The unexpectedly high estimates of between‐individual variation in DI based on distributional characteristics of observable asymmetry values (of on average bilaterally symmetric traits) rely on statistical models that assume an underlying normal distribution of developmental errors. This prompted doubts on the assumption of the Gaussian nature of developmental errors. However, when applying other candidate distributions [log‐normal and gamma (γ)], recent analyses of empirical datasets have indicated that estimates remain generally high. Yet, all estimates were based on bilaterally symmetric traits, which did not allow for a formal comparison of the alternative distributions. In the present study, we extend a recent statistical model to allow statistical comparison of the different distributions based on traits that developed repeatedly under the same conditions, such as flower traits and regrown feathers. We analyse simulated and empirical data and show that: (1) it is statistically difficult to differentiate among the three alternatives when variances are small relative to the mean, as is often the case with DI; (2) the normal distribution fits the log‐normal or γ relatively well under those circumstances; (3) the deviance information criterion (DIC) is able to pick up differences in model fit among the three alternative distributions, yet more strongly so when levels of DI were high; (4) empirical datasets show a better fit of the normal over the log‐normal and γ‐distributions as judged by the DIC; and (5) estimates of between‐individual variation in DI in the three empirical datasets were relatively high (> 50%) under each distributional assumption. In conclusion, and based on our three datasets, the normal approximation appears to be a reasonable choice for statistical models of DI and the remarkably high estimates of variation in DI cannot be attributed to non‐normal developmental noise. Nevertheless, our method should be applied to a broad range of traits and organisms to evaluate the generality of this result. We argue that there is an urgent need for studies that reveal the underlying mechanisms of developmental noise and stability, as well as the role of developmental selection, in order to be able to determine the biological importance of the highly skewed distributions of developmental instability often observed. © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2007, 92 , 197–210.     

Use of a latitudinal gradient in bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) production to examine physiological controls of biotic boundaries and potential responses to environmental change

Aim Predictions of vegetation change with global warming require models that accurately reflect physiological processes underlying growth limitations and species distributions. However, information about environmental controls on physiology and consequent effects on species boundaries and ecosystem functions such as production is limited, especially for forested wetlands that are potentially important carbon sinks. Location The bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) region of the south‐eastern United States was studied to examine how production of an important forested wetland varies with latitude and temperature as well as local hydrology. Methods We used published data to analyse litter production across a latitudinal gradient from 26.2 to 37.8° N to determine how bald cypress swamps might respond to alternate climate conditions and what changes might occur throughout the distributional range. Results Litterfall rates followed a bell shaped curve, indicating that production was more limited at the distributional boundaries (c. 225 g/m² year^?1) compared to the mid‐range (795–1126 g/m² year^?1). This pattern suggests that conditions are suboptimal near both boundaries and that the absence of populations outside this latitudinal range may be largely due to physiological constraints on the carbon balance of dominant species. While dispersal limitations cannot be totally discounted, competition with other wetland types at the extremes of the range does not seem likely to be important because the relative basal area of bald cypress does not decrease near the edges of the range. Impaired hydrology depressed production across the entire range, but more in the south than the north. Main conclusions Our findings suggest that (1) physiological limitations constrain biotic boundaries of bald cypress swamps; (2) future changes in global temperature would affect litter production in a nonlinear manner across the distributional range; (3) local changes in hydrology may interact with climate to further reduce litter production, particularly at lower latitudes; and (4) southernmost forests could be extirpated if environmental conditions compromise carbon balance and water‐use efficiency of trees.     

MICROHABITAT DIFFERENCES IMPACT PHYLOGEOGRAPHIC CONCORDANCE OF CODISTRIBUTED SPECIES: GENOMIC EVIDENCE IN MONTANE SEDGES (CAREX L.) FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS

By selecting codistributed, closely related montane sedges from the Rocky Mountains that are similar in virtually all respects but one—their microhabitat affinities—we test predictions about how patterns of genetic variation are expected to differ between Carex nova, an inhabitant of wetlands, and Carex chalciolepis, an inhabitant of drier meadows, slopes, and ridges. Although contemporary populations of the taxa are similarly isolated, the distribution of glacial moraines suggests that their past population connectedness would have differed. Sampling of codistributed population pairs from different mountain ranges combined with the resolution provided by over 24,000 single nucleotide polymorphism loci supports microhabitat‐mediated differences in the sedges’ patterns of genetic variation that are consistent with their predicted differences in the degree of isolation of ancestral source populations. Our results highlight how microhabitat preferences may interact with glaciations to produce fundamental differences in the past distributions of presently codistributed species. We discuss the implications of these findings for generalizing the impacts of climate‐induced distributional shifts for communities, as well as for the prospects of gaining insights about species‐specific deterministic processes, not just deterministic community‐level responses, from comparative phylogeographic study.     

The influence of coarse‐scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow‐range endemic crayfish populations

1. A major limitation to effective management of narrow‐range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2. Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate‐change scenarios. 3. The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 65–87% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4. Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5 km²) showed that fine‐resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1‐km² resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1‐km² resolution models were more accurate than 4.5‐km² resolution models. 5. Future projected (4.5‐km² resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low‐emission scenario, whereas two of four species would be severely restricted in range under moderate–high emissions. Discrepancies in the two emission scenarios probably relate to the exclusion of behavioural adaptations from species‐distribution models. 6. These model predictions illustrate possible impacts of climate change on narrow‐range endemic crayfish populations. The predictions do not account for biotic interactions, migration, local habitat conditions or species adaptation. However, we identified the constraining landscape features acting on these populations that provide a framework for addressing habitat needs at a fine scale and developing targeted and systematic monitoring programmes.     

Analytical Quantile Solution for the S‐distribution,Random Number Generation and Statistical Data Modeling

The selection of a specific statistical distribution as a model for describing the population behavior of a given variable is seldom a simple problem. One strategy consists in testing different distributions (normal, lognormal, Weibull, etc.), and selecting the one providing the best fit to the observed data and being the most parsimonious. Alternatively, one can make a choice based on theoretical arguments and simply fit the corresponding parameters to the observed data. In either case, different distributions can give similar results and provide almost equivalent models for a given data set. Model selection can be more complicated when the goal is to describe a trend in the distribution of a given variable. In those cases, changes in shape and skewness are difficult to represent by a single distributional form. As an alternative to the use of complicated families of distributions as models for data, the S‐distribution [Voit, E. O. (1992) Biom. J. 7 , 855–878] provides a highly flexible mathematical form in which the density is defined as a function of the cumulative. S‐distributions can accurately approximate many known continuous and unimodal distributions, preserving the well known limit relationships between them. Besides representing well‐known distributions, S‐distributions provide an infinity of new possibilities that do not correspond with known classical distributions. Although the utility and performance of this general form has been clearly proved in different applications, its definition as a differential equation is a potential drawback for some problems. In this paper we obtain an analytical solution for the quantile equation that highly simplifies the use of S‐distributions. We show the utility of this solution in different applications. After classifying the different qualitative behaviors of the S‐distribution in parameter space, we show how to obtain different S‐distributions that accomplish specific constraints. One of the most interesting cases is the possibility of obtaining distributions that acomplish P(X ≤ X_c) = 0. Then, we demonstrate that the quantile solution facilitates the use of S‐distributions in Monte‐Carlo experiments through the generation of random samples. Finally, we show how to fit an S‐distribution to actual data, so that the resulting distribution can be used as a statistical model for them.     

Environmental and neighbourhood effects on tree fern distributions in a neotropical lowland rain forest

Questions: To what extent are the distributions of tropical rain forest tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) related to environmental variation, and is habitat specialization likely to play a role in their local coexistence? Location: Lowland rain forest at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Methods: Generalized linear (GLM) and generalized additive (GAM) logistic regression were used to model the incidence of four tree fern species in relation to environmental and neighbourhood variables in 1154 inventory plots regularly distributed across 6 km² of old‐growth forest. Small and large size classes of the two most abundant species were modelled separately to see whether habitat associations change with ontogeny. Results: GLM and GAM model results were similar. All species had significant distributional biases with respect to micro‐habitat. Environmental variables describing soil variation were included in the models most often, followed by topographic and forest structural variables. The distributions of small individuals were more strongly related to environmental variation than those of larger individuals. Significant neighbourhood effects (spatial autocorrelation in intraspecific distributions and non‐random overlaps in the distributions of certain species pairs) were also identified. Overlaps between congeners did not differ from random, but there was a highly significant overlap in the distributions of the two most common species. Conclusions: Our results support the view that habitat specialization is an important determinant of where on the rain forest landscape tree ferns grow, especially for juvenile plants. However, other factors, such as dispersal limitation, may also contribute to their local coexistence.