Temporal trends in childhood leukaemia incidence following exposure to radioactive fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing

Notably raised rates of childhood leukaemia incidence have been found near some nuclear installations, in particular Sellafield and Dounreay in the United Kingdom, but risk assessments have concluded that the radiation doses estimated to have been received by children or in utero as a result of operations at these installations are much too small to account for the reported increases in incidence. This has led to speculation that the risk of childhood leukaemia arising from internal exposure to radiation following the intake of radioactive material released from nuclear facilities has been substantially underestimated. The radionuclides discharged from many nuclear installations are similar to those released into the global environment by atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, which was at its height in the late-1950s and early-1960s. Measurements of anthropogenic radionuclides in members of the general public resident in the vicinity of Sellafield and Dounreay have found levels that do not differ greatly from those in persons living remote from nuclear installations that are due to ubiquitous exposure to the radioactive debris of nuclear weapons testing. Therefore, if the leukaemia risk to children resulting from deposition within the body of radioactive material discharged from nuclear facilities has been grossly underestimated, then a pronounced excess of childhood leukaemia would have been expected as a consequence of the short period of intense atmospheric weapons testing. We have examined childhood leukaemia incidence in 11 large-scale cancer registries in three continents for which data were available at least as early as 1962. We found no evidence of a wave of excess cases corresponding to the peak of radioactive fallout from atmospheric weapons testing. The absence of a discernible increase in the incidence of childhood leukaemia following the period of maximum exposure to the radioactive debris of this testing weighs heavily against the suggestion that conventional methods are seriously in error when assessing the risk of childhood leukaemia from exposure to man-made radionuclides released from nuclear installations.     

Trends in childhood leukaemia in the Nordic countries in relation to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing.

OBJECTIVE--To obtain further information about the risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to ionising radiation at low doses and low dose rates before or after birth or to the father''s testes shortly before conception. DESIGN--Observational study of trends in incidence of childhood leukaemia in relation to estimated radiation exposures due to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing during the 1950s and 1960s. SETTING--Nordic countries. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence rates of leukaemia by age at diagnosis, sex, country, and calendar year of diagnosis or year of birth; exposure category; relation between leukaemia and exposure for children aged 0-14 and 0-4 separately. RESULTS--During the high fallout period the average estimated dose equivalent to the fetal red bone marrow was around 140 mu Sv and the average annual testicular dose 140 mu Sv. There was little evidence of increased incidence of leukaemia among children born in these years. Doses to the red bone marrow of a child after birth were higher, and during the high exposure period children would have been subjected to an additional dose equivalent of around 1500 mu Sv, similar to doses received by children in several parts of central and eastern Europe owing to the Chernobyl accident and about 50% greater than the annual dose equivalent to the red bone marrow of a child from natural radiation. leukaemia incidence and red marrow dose was not related overall, but rates of leukaemia in the high exposure period were slightly higher than in the surrounding medium exposure period (relative risk for ages 0-14: 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.14; for ages 0-4: 1.11, 1.00 to 1.24). CONCLUSIONS--Current predicted risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to radiation are not greatly underestimated for low dose rate exposures.     

Fallout from Chernobyl and incidence of childhood leukaemia in Finland, 1976-92.

OBJECTIVE--To assess effects of fallout from Chernobyl on incidence of childhood leukaemia in Finland. DESIGN--Nationwide cohort study. External exposure measured for 455 Finnish municipalities with instruments driven 19,000 km throughout the country. Values specific to municipalities corrected for shielding due to houses and fallout from A bomb testing. Internal exposure estimated from whole body measurements on a random sample of 81 children. Mean effective dose for two years after incident calculated from these measurements. Data on childhood leukaemia obtained from Finnish cancer registry and verified through hospitals treating childhood cancers. SETTING--Finland, one of the countries most heavily contaminated by the Chernobyl accident; the population was divided into fifths by exposure. SUBJECTS--Children aged 0-14 years in 1976-92. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Standardised incidence ratio of childhood leukaemia and relative excess risk of childhood leukaemia per mSv. From incidence data of Finnish cancer registry for 1976-85, expected numbers specific to sex and age group (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years) were calculated for each municipality for three periods (1976-85, 1986-8, and 1989-92) and pooled as exposure fifths. Dose response was estimated as regression slope of standardised incidence ratios on mean doses for fifths for each period. RESULTS--Population weighted mean effective doses for first two years after the accident were 410 microSv for the whole country and 970 microSv for the population fifth with the highest dose. In all Finland the incidence of childhood leukaemia did not increase 1976-92. The relative excess risk 1989-92 was not significantly different from zero (7% per mSv; 95% confidence interval -27% to 41%). CONCLUSIONS--An important increase in childhood leukaemia can be excluded. Any effect is smaller than eight extra cases per million children per year in Finland. The results are consistent with the magnitude of effect expected.     

The risk of leukaemia in young children from exposure to tritium and carbon-14 in the discharges of German nuclear power stations and in the fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing

Towards the end of 2007, the results were published from a case–control study (the “KiKK Study”) of cancer in young children, diagnosed <5 years of age during 1980–2003 while resident near nuclear power stations in western Germany. The study found a tendency for cases of leukaemia to live closer to the nearest nuclear power station than their matched controls, producing an odds ratio that was raised to a statistically significant extent for residence within 5 km of a nuclear power station. The findings of the study received much publicity, but a detailed radiological risk assessment demonstrated that the radiation doses received by young children from discharges of radioactive material from the nuclear reactors were much lower than those received from natural background radiation and far too small to be responsible for the statistical association reported in the KiKK Study. This has led to speculation that conventional radiological risk assessments have grossly underestimated the risk of leukaemia in young children posed by exposure to man-made radionuclides, and particular attention has been drawn to the possible role of tritium and carbon-14 discharges in this supposedly severe underestimation of risk. Both ³H and ¹⁴C are generated naturally in the upper atmosphere, and substantial increases in these radionuclides in the environment occurred as a result of their production by atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons during the late 1950s and early 1960s. If the leukaemogenic effect of these radionuclides has been seriously underestimated to the degree necessary to explain the KiKK Study findings, then a pronounced increase in the worldwide incidence of leukaemia among young children should have followed the notably elevated exposure to ³H and ¹⁴C from nuclear weapons testing fallout. To investigate this hypothesis, the time series of incidence rates of leukaemia among young children <5 years of age at diagnosis has been examined from ten cancer registries from three continents and both hemispheres, which include registration data from the early 1960s or before. No evidence of a markedly increased risk of leukaemia in young children following the peak of above-ground nuclear weapons testing, or that incidence rates are related to level of exposure to fallout, is apparent from these registration rates, providing strong grounds for discounting the idea that the risk of leukaemia in young children from ³H or ¹⁴C (or any other radionuclide present in both nuclear weapons testing fallout and discharges from nuclear installations) has been grossly underestimated and that such exposure can account for the findings of the KiKK Study.     

Results of case-control study of leukaemia and lymphoma among young people near Sellafield nuclear plant in West Cumbria.

OBJECTIVE--To examine whether the observed excess of childhood leukaemia and lymphoma near the Sellafield nuclear plant is associated with established risk factors or with factors related to the plant. DESIGN--A case-control study. SETTING--West Cumbria health district. SUBJECTS--52 Cases of leukaemia, 22 of non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma, and 23 of Hodgkin''s disease occurring in people born in the area and diagnosed there in 1950-85 under the age of 25 and 1001 controls matched for sex and date of birth taken from the same birth registers as the cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Antenatal abdominal x ray examinations, viral infections, habit factors, proximity to and employment characteristics of parents at Sellafield. RESULTS--Expected associations with prenatal exposure to x rays were found, but little information was available on viral illnesses. Relative risks for leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma were higher in children born near Sellafield and in children of fathers employed at the plant, particularly those with high radiation dose recordings before their child''s conception. For example, the relative risks compared with area controls were 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.53) for being born further than 5 km from Sellafield 2.44 (1.04 to 5.71) for children of fathers employed at Sellafield at their conception, and 6.42 (1.57 to 26.3) for children of fathers receiving a total preconceptual ionising radiation dose of 100 mSv or more. Other factors, including exposure to x rays, maternal age, employment elsewhere, eating seafood, and playing on the beach did not explain these relationships. Focusing on Seascale, where the excess incidence has predominantly been reported, showed for the four out of five cases of leukaemia and one case of non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma whose fathers were employed at Sellafield and for whom dose information was obtained that the fathers of each case had higher radiation doses before their child''s conception than all their matched control fathers; the father of the other Seascale case (non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma) was not employed at the plant. These results seem to explain statistically the geographical association. For Hodgkin''s disease neither geographical nor employment associations with Sellafield were found. CONCLUSIONS--The raised incidence of leukaemia, particularly, and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma among children near Sellafield was associated with paternal employment and recorded external dose of whole body penetrating radiation during work at the plant before conception. The association can explain statistically the observed geographical excess. This result suggests an effect of ionising radiation on fathers that may be leukaemogenic in their offspring, though other, less likely, explanations are possible. There are important potential implications for radiobiology and for protection of radiation workers and their children.     

Ionising radiations from nuclear establishments and childhood leukaemias--an enigma

The Gardner report, recently published in the UK, showing a correlation between incidence of childhood leukaemia and paternal exposure to ionising radiations (amongst fathers working in nuclear power plants) has added a new element to debates about both the risk factors in nuclear power plants and the relationships between ionising radiations and leukaemogenesis. The epidemiologic and genetic evidence concerning leukaemias is reviewed here and it is concluded that the leukaemogenic agent, whose existence is indicated in the Gardner report, is unlikely to be paternal radiation dose per se but rather exposure to another factor that is correlated with parternal radiation dose received.     

Epipodophyllotoxins,alkylating agents,and radiation and risk of secondary leukaemia after childhood cancer.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the incidence and aetiology of secondary leukaemia after childhood cancer in Britain. DESIGN--Cohort study and a case-control study. SETTING--Britain and population based National Register of Childhood Tumours. SUBJECTS--Cohort of 16,422 one year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed in Britain between 1962 and 1983, among whom 22 secondary leukaemias were observed. A case-control study of 26 secondary leukaemias observed among survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed in Britain between 1940 and 1983; 96 controls were selected matched for sex, type of first cancer, age at first cancer, and interval to diagnosis of secondary leukaemia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Dose of radiation averaged over patients'' active bone marrow and total accumulated dose of epipodophyllotoxins, alkylating agents, vinca alkaloids, antimetabolites, and antibiotics (mg/m2) given for the original cancer. RESULTS--Cumulative risk of secondary leukaemia within the cohort did not exceed 0.5% over the initial five years beyond one year survival, except that after non-Hodgkin''s lymphomas 1.4% of patients developed secondary leukaemia. Corresponding figure for patients treated for non-Hodgkin''s lymphomas in the early 1980s was 4%. The relative risk of secondary leukaemia increased significantly with exposure to epipodophyllotoxins and dose of radiation averaged over patients'' active bone marrow. Ten patients developed leukaemia after having an epipodophyllotoxin-teniposide in nine cases, etoposide in one. Chromosomal translocations involving 11q23 were observed relating to two secondary leukaemias from a total of six for which there were successful cytogenetic studies after administration of an epipodophyllotoxin. CONCLUSIONS--Epipodophyllotoxins acting alone or together with alkylating agents or radiation seem to be involved in secondary leukaemia after childhood cancer.     

Case-control study of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among children aged 0-4 years living in west Berkshire and north Hampshire health districts.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the relation between parental employment in the nuclear industry and childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma. DESIGN--Case-control study. SETTING-West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities. SUBJECTS--54 children aged 0-4 years who had leukaemia or non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma diagnosed during 1972-89, who were born in the study area and were resident there when cancer was diagnosed. Six controls were selected for each case: four from hospital delivery registers and two from livebirth registers maintained by the NHS central register. Controls were matched for sex, date of birth (within six months), and area of residence at birth and time of diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Parents'' employment by the nuclear industry and exposure to ionising radiation at work. RESULTS--Five (9%) of the 54 cases and 14 (4%) of the 324 controls had fathers or mothers, or both, who had been employed by the nuclear industry (relative risk 2.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6 to 6.9). Nuclear industry employees who work in areas where exposure to radiation is possible are given film badges to monitor their exposure to external penetrating ionising radiation. Three fathers of cases and two fathers of controls (and no mothers of either) had been monitored in this way before their child was conceived (relative risk 9.0, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 107.8). No father (of a case or control) had accumulated a recorded dose of more than 5 mSv before his child was conceived, and no father had been monitored at any time in the four years before his child was conceived. A dose-response relation was not evident among fathers who had been monitored. CONCLUSIONS--These results suggest that the children of fathers who had been monitored for exposure to external penetrating ionising radiation in the nuclear industry may be at increased risk of developing leukaemia before their fifth birthday. The finding is based on small numbers and could be due to chance. If the relationship is real the mechanisms are far from clear, except that the effect is unlikely to be due to external radiation; the possibility that it could be due to internal contamination by radioactive substances or some other exposure at work should be pursued. The above average rates of leukaemia in the study area cannot be accounted for by these findings.     

Esophagus cancer and radiation exposure due to nuclear test fallout: an analysis based on the data of the Semipalatinsk historical cohort, 1960-1999

This paper describes the Semipalatinsk historical cohort study and, in particular, examines the association between combined external and internal radiation exposure and esophagus cancer. Esophagus cancer is the most frequent single cancer site in the cause of death follow-up for the Semipalatinsk cohort. Set up in the 1960s, this historical cohort included 10 exposed settlements in the vicinity of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in East Kazakhstan as well as 6 comparison settlements in a low exposure area of the same region. The external and internal radiation doses to the population of the settlements under study were mainly due to local fallout from atmospheric nuclear testing (1949-1962). The database includes dosimetry and health information for 19.545 inhabitants of exposed and comparison villages in the Semipalatinsk region, comprising a total of 582.750 person-years of follow-up between 1960 and 1999. Cumulative effective dose estimates in this cohort range from 20 mSv to -4 Sv, with a mean dose of 634 mSv in the exposed group. Relative risks were calculated in terms of rate ratios, using a Poisson regression model for grouped person-time data. Esophagus cancer was found substantially elevated, with a statistically significant increase of the relative risk with dose and an ERR/Sv of 2.37 (1.45; 3.28) for the total cohort. If the data set was restricted to the exposed group only, the ERR/Sv was found considerably lower (0.18 (-0.16; 0.52)), whereas the dose-response remained significant only in women. Overall, our results based on the Semipalatinsk historical cohort indicate an association between fallout exposure and the risk of esophagus cancer that should be further investigated.     

Paternal radiation exposure and leukaemia in offspring: the Ontario case-control study.

OBJECTIVES--To test the hypothesis that there is an association between childhood leukaemia and the occupational exposure of fathers to ionising radiation before a child''s conception. DESIGN--Case-control study with eight matched controls per case. SETTING--Regions of Ontario, Canada, with an operating nuclear facility. SUBJECTS--Cases were children (age 0-14) who died from or were diagnosed as having leukaemia from 1950 to 1988 and were born to mothers living in the vicinity of an operating nuclear facility. Controls were identified from birth certificates, matched by date of birth and residence at birth. There were 112 cases and 890 controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Paternal radiation exposure was determined by a record linkage to the Canadian National Dose Registry. RESULTS--Six fathers of cases and 53 fathers of controls had had a total whole body dose > 0.0 mSv before the child''s conception, resulting in an odds ratio of 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.32 to 2.34). There was no evidence of an increased leukaemia risk in relation to any exposure period (lifetime or six months or three months before conception) or exposure type (total whole body dose, external whole body dose, or tritium dose), except for radon exposure to uranium miners, which had a large odds ratio that was not significantly different from the null value. CONCLUSIONS--The findings of this study in Ontario did not support the hypothesis that childhood leukaemia is associated with the occupational exposure of fathers to ionising radiation before the child''s conception.     

Current status of cytogenetic procedures to detect and quantify previous exposures to radiation

The estimation of the magnitude of a dose of ionizing radiation to which an individual has been exposed (or of the plausibility of an alleged exposure) from chromosomal aberration frequencies determined in peripheral blood lymphocyte cultures is a well-established methodology, having first been employed over 25 years ago. The cytogenetics working group has reviewed the accumulated data and the possible applicability of the technique to the determination of radiation doses to which American veterans might have been exposed as participants in nuclear weapons tests in the continental U.S.A. or the Pacific Atolls during the late 1940s and 1950s or as members of the Occupation Forces entering Hiroshima or Nagasaki shortly after the nuclear detonations there. The working group believes that with prompt peripheral blood sampling, external doses to individuals of the order of about 10 rad (or less if the exposure was to high-LET radiation) can accurately be detected and measured. It also believes that exposures of populations to doses of the order of maximum permissible occupational exposures can also be detected (but only in populations; not in an individual). Large exposures of populations can also be detected even several decades after their exposure, but only in the case of populations, and of large doses (of the order of 100 to several hundred rad). The working group does not believe that cytogenetic measurements can detect internal doses from fallout radionuclides in individuals unless these are very large. The working group has approached the problem of detection of small doses (less than or equal to 10 or so rad) sampled decades after the exposure of individuals by using a Bayesian statistical approach. Only a preliminary evaluation of this approach was possible, but it is clear that it could provide a formal statement of the likelihood that any given observation of a particular number of chromosomal aberrations in a sample of any particular number of lymphocytes actually indicates an exposure to any given dose of radiation. It is also clear that aberration frequencies (and consequently doses) would have to be quite high before much confidence could be given to either exposure or dose estimation by this method, given the approximately 3 decades of elapsed time between the exposures and any future blood sampling.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Risk of second primary thyroid cancer after radiotherapy for a childhood cancer in a large cohort study: an update from the childhood cancer survivor study

Previous studies have indicated that thyroid cancer risk after a first childhood malignancy is curvilinear with radiation dose, increasing at low to moderate doses and decreasing at high doses. Understanding factors that modify the radiation dose response over the entire therapeutic dose range is challenging and requires large numbers of subjects. We quantified the long-term risk of thyroid cancer associated with radiation treatment among 12,547 5-year survivors of a childhood cancer (leukemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, central nervous system cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, kidney cancer, bone cancer, neuroblastoma) diagnosed between 1970 and 1986 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study using the most current cohort follow-up to 2005. There were 119 subsequent pathologically confirmed thyroid cancer cases, and individual radiation doses to the thyroid gland were estimated for the entire cohort. This cohort study builds on the previous case-control study in this population (69 thyroid cancer cases with follow-up to 2000) by allowing the evaluation of both relative and absolute risks. Poisson regression analyses were used to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIR), excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of thyroid cancer associated with radiation dose. Other factors such as sex, type of first cancer, attained age, age at exposure to radiation, time since exposure to radiation, and chemotherapy (yes/no) were assessed for their effect on the linear and exponential quadratic terms describing the dose-response relationship. Similar to the previous analysis, thyroid cancer risk increased linearly with radiation dose up to approximately 20 Gy, where the relative risk peaked at 14.6-fold (95% CI, 6.8-31.5). At thyroid radiation doses >20 Gy, a downturn in the dose-response relationship was observed. The ERR model that best fit the data was linear-exponential quadratic. We found that age at exposure modified the ERR linear dose term (higher radiation risk with younger age) (P < 0.001) and that sex (higher radiation risk among females) (P = 0.008) and time since exposure (higher radiation risk with longer time) (P < 0.001) modified the EAR linear dose term. None of these factors modified the exponential quadratic (high dose) term. Sex, age at exposure and time since exposure were found to be significant modifiers of the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and as such are important factors to account for in clinical follow-up and thyroid cancer risk estimation among childhood cancer survivors.     

Incidence of leukaemia and other cancers in birth and schools cohorts in the Dounreay area.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether a raised incidence of leukaemia in the Dounreay area occurred in children born to local mothers (birth cohort) or in those who moved to the area after birth (schools cohort) and also whether any cases of cancer have occurred in children born near Dounreay who may have moved elsewhere. DESIGN--Follow up study. SETTING--Dounreay area of Caithness, Scotland. SUBJECTS--4144 children born in the area in the period 1969-88 and 1641 children who attended local schools in the same period but who had been born elsewhere. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cancer registration records linked to birth and school records with computerised probability matching methods. RESULTS--Five cancer registrations were traced from the birth cohort compared with 5.8 expected on the basis of national rates (observed to expected ratio 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 2.0). All five cases were of leukaemia (2.3, 0.7 to 5.4). In the schools cohort three cases were found (2.1, 0.4 to 6.2), all of which were of leukaemia (6.7, 1.4 to 19.5). All eight children were resident in the Dounreay area at the time of diagnosis; thus no cases were found in children who were born in or had attended school in the study area but who subsequently moved away. CONCLUSION--The raised incidence of leukaemia in both the birth and schools cohorts suggests that place of birth is not a more important factor than place of residence in the series of cases of leukaemia observed near Dounreay area.     

Behavior and food consumption pattern of the population exposed in 1949�C1962 to fallout from Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan

The relationship between radiation exposure from nuclear weapons testing fallout and thyroid disease in a group of 2,994 subjects has been the subject of study by the US National Cancer Institute. In that study, radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated for residents of villages in Kazakhstan possibly exposed to deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear testing conducted by the Soviet Union at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan between 1949 and 1962. The study subjects included individuals of both Kazakh and Russian origin who were exposed during childhood and adolescence. An initial dose reconstruction used for the risk analysis of Land et al. (Radiat Res 169:373?C383, 2008) was based on individual information collected from basic questionnaires administered to the study population in 1998. However, because data on several key questions for accurately estimating doses were not obtained from the 1998 questionnaires, it was decided to conduct a second data collection campaign in 2007. Due to the many years elapsed since exposure, a well-developed strategy was necessary to encourage accurate memory recall. In our recent study, a focus group interview data collection methodology was used to collect historical behavioral and food consumption data. The data collection in 2007 involved interviews conducted within four-eight-person focus groups (three groups of women and one group of men) in each of four exposed villages where thyroid disease screening was conducted in 1998. Population-based data on relevant childhood behaviors including time spent in- and outdoors and consumption rates of milk and other dairy products were collected from women??s groups. The data were collected for five age groups of children and adolescents ranging from less than 1?year of age to 21?years of age. Dairy products considered included fresh milk and other products from cows, goats, mares, and sheep. Men??s focus group interviews pertained to construction materials of houses and schools, and animal grazing patterns and feeding practices. The response data collected are useful for improving estimates of thyroid radiation dose estimates for the subjects of an ongoing epidemiological study.     

Report on an interagency workshop on the radiobiology of nuclear terrorism. Molecular and cellular biology dose (1-10 Sv) radiation and potential mechanisms of radiation protection (Bethesda,Maryland, December 17-18, 2001)

The events of September 11, 2001 have focused attention on the possibility of nuclear terrorism, and 1-10 Sv is arguably the dose range of biological interest, since doses in this range both pose a risk of acute effects and are potentially survivable. Because of this interest, a coalition of U.S. government agencies (NCI, DOD, DOE) and the Radiation Research Society convened a workshop in December 2001 "to focus on molecular, cellular and tissue changes that occur [at doses of 1-10 Sv] and potential mechanisms of radioprotection". A draft report of this workshop was posted on the NCI website in February 2002. According to the draft, the workshop was also intended to "determine the research opportunities and resources required [and] develop a research-action plan for further discussion and implementation." Injuries after exposure to ionizing radiation are important to patients with cancer and to populations potentially subject to accidental or intentional exposure. In these populations, partial- or whole-body exposures in the range of 1-10 Sv are possible. The consequences of exposure of limited tissue volumes to doses above 10 Sv have been researched because of their applicability to cancer therapy, while exposure to doses below 1 Sv has been researched because of nuclear fallout and space exploration issues. Except for research aimed at protection of members of the armed forces, the intervening dose range has received relatively little attention. The workshop participants concluded that although we currently have only a limited ability to deal with the consequences of radiation exposures in this range, focused research would have the potential of rapidly expanding such capabilities.     

Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence and radiation dose from fallout

Settlements near the Semipalatinsk Test Site (SNTS) in northeastern Kazakhstan were exposed to radioactive fallout during 1949-1962. Thyroid disease prevalence among 2994 residents of eight villages was ascertained by ultrasound screening. Malignancy was determined by cytopathology. Individual thyroid doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed from fallout deposition patterns, residential histories and diet, including childhood milk consumption. Point estimates of individual external and internal dose averaged 0.04 Gy (range 0-0.65) and 0.31 Gy (0-9.6), respectively, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.46. Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence was 18% and 39% among males and females, respectively. It was significantly and independently associated with both external and internal dose, the main study finding. The estimated relative biological effectiveness of internal compared to external radiation dose was 0.33, with 95% confidence bounds of 0.09-3.11. Prevalence of papillary cancer was 0.9% and was not significantly associated with radiation dose. In terms of excess relative risk per unit dose, our dose-response findings for nodule prevalence are comparable to those from populations exposed to medical X rays and to acute radiation from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings.     

Cancer mortality risk among workers at the Mayak nuclear complex

At present, direct data on risk from protracted or fractionated radiation exposure at low dose rates have been limited largely to studies of populations exposed to low cumulative doses with resulting low statistical power. We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body gamma radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers. Cancer deaths in a cohort of about 21,500 nuclear workers who began working at the Mayak complex between 1948 and 1972 were ascertained from death certificates and autopsy reports with follow-up through December 1997. Excess relative risk models were used to estimate solid cancer and leukemia risks associated with external gamma-radiation dose with adjustment for effects of plutonium exposures. Both solid cancer and leukemia death rates increased significantly with increasing gamma-ray dose (P < 0.001). Under a linear dose-response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P < 0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P < 0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose-response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition) and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P < 0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P = 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death. External gamma-ray exposures significantly increased risks of both solid cancers and leukemia in this large cohort of men and women with occupational radiation exposures. Risks at doses of less than 1 Gy may be slightly lower than those seen for doses arising from acute exposures in the atomic bomb survivors. As dose estimates for the Mayak workers are improved, it should be possible to obtain more precise estimates of solid cancer and leukemia risks from protracted external radiation exposure in this cohort.     

Solid cancer mortality associated with chronic external radiation exposure at the French atomic energy commission and nuclear fuel company

Studies of nuclear workers make it possible to directly quantify the risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure at low doses and low dose rates. Studies of the CEA (Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique) and AREVA Nuclear Cycle (AREVA NC) cohort, currently the most informative such group in France, describe the long-term risk to nuclear workers associated with external exposure. Our aim is to assess the risk of mortality from solid cancers among CEA and AREVA NC nuclear workers and its association with external radiation exposure. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated and internal Poisson regressions were conducted, controlling for the main confounding factors [sex, attained age, calendar period, company and socioeconomic status (SES)]. During the period 1968-2004, there were 2,035 solid cancers among the 36,769 CEA-AREVA NC workers. Cumulative external radiation exposure was assessed for the period 1950-2004, and the mean cumulative dose was 12.1 mSv. Mortality rates for all causes and all solid cancers were both significantly lower in this cohort than in the general population. A significant excess of deaths from pleural cancer, not associated with cumulative external dose, was observed, probably due to past asbestos exposure. We observed a significant excess of melanoma, also unassociated with dose. Although cumulative external dose was not associated with mortality from all solid cancers, the central estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Sv of 0.46 for solid cancer mortality was higher than the 0.26 calculated for male Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors 50 years or older and exposed at the age of 30 years or older. The modification of our results after stratification for SES demonstrates the importance of this characteristic in occupational studies, because it makes it possible to take class-based lifestyle differences into account, at least partly. These results show the great potential of a further joint international study of nuclear workers, which should improve knowledge about the risks associated with chronic low doses and provide useful risk estimates for radiation protection.     

Multi-model inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors mortality data (1950–2000)

Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese A-bomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a model-averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose–response. The model-averaged ERR at 1 Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12 years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55 years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5-year-old child of 10 mSv and applying the model-averaged risk at 10 mSv for a 7-year-old exposed at 2 years of age would result in an ERR = 0.33, 95% CI: −0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted model-averaged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.     

Irradiation and second cancers. The thyroid as a case in point

The thyroid gland is highly sensitive to radiation during childhood: the risk of thyroid tumours is increased for mean doses as low as 100 mGy and for higher doses, the risk increases linearly with the dose. Excess relative risk is important, being 7.7 for 1 Gy delivered to the thyroid gland during childhood. The risk of thyroid tumours is modified by several factors: a) age at exposure: in childhood, the risk decreases with increasing age at exposure and is not significant after 20 years; b) gender: females are two times more likely than males to develop thyroid tumours; c) genetic predisposition due to a defect in DNA repair mechanisms, and dietary and hormonal factors may modify the risk; d) the influence of fractionation and dose rate is not well established. Radioiodine 131 (1311) used for medical purposes has almost no tumourigenic effect on the adult thyroid gland. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident have clearly shown that the risk of thyroid cancer after exposure to 1311 in childhood is important, and that such exposure should be prevented by potassium iodine prophylaxis. RET/PTC rearrangements are found in 60-80% of papillary carcinomas and in 45% of adenomas occurring after radiation exposure. They are found in 5-15% of papillary carcinoma and in no follicular adenomas that occurred in the absence of radiation exposure.