The role of predator removal,density-dependence,and environmental factors on mallard duckling survival in North Dakota

Duckling survival is an important component of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) recruitment and population growth, yet many factors regulating duckling survival are poorly understood. We investigated factors affecting mallard duckling survival in the drift prairie of northeastern North Dakota, 2006–2007. Mammalian meso-predators were removed by trapping on 4 92.3 km² study sites and another 4 study sites served as controls. We monitored 169 broods using telemetry and periodic resighting, and we modeled cumulative survival to 30 days of age using the nest survival module in Program MARK. Duckling survival was not affected by predator removal ( , 85% CI: 0.182–0.234; , 85% CI: 0.155–0.211) and was only weakly negatively correlated with duckling density. Duckling survival was higher in 2007 ( , 85% CI: 0.193–0.355) than 2006 ( , 85% CI: 0.084–0.252) and increased with total seasonal and semipermanent wetland area and declined with perennial cover in the surrounding landscape. Broods that hatched earlier in the season (especially in 2006) and ducklings that were heavier at hatch also had higher survival. Our estimates of duckling survival are among the lowest reported for mallards and contradict previous research in Saskatchewan that found predator removal increased duckling survival. However, our results are consistent with other studies suggesting that earlier hatch date, increased wetland availability, and better duckling condition lead to increased survival. Management actions that increase wetland density, improve nest success early in the season, and potentially target brood-specific predators such as mink (Neovison vison) would likely lead to higher duckling survival. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Habitat used by common and king eiders in spring in the southeast Beaufort Sea and overlap with resource exploration

The southeast Beaufort Sea is a critical spring staging area for common and king eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum, S. spectabilis), and is for many the final stop before they reach their breeding grounds throughout the western Canadian Arctic. The region also has significant oil and gas potential, and the recent approval of a pipeline through the Mackenzie Valley may make development of these resources economically viable. We used satellite telemetry to determine the distribution and habitat use of eiders staging in the southeast Beaufort Sea in spring, and the overlap of eiders with oil and gas exploration. From 2004 to 2009, we monitored 51 eiders equipped with platform terminal transmitters (PTTs) throughout spring migration (May–June). We compared the marine habitats used by each species, and evaluated habitat preferences using resource selection functions. The location and extent of the flaw lead (open water along the interface between mobile pack ice and stationary landfast ice) at the time when eiders were staging varied among years, but both species showed a strong preference for use of flaw lead habitats. This preference was stronger for common eiders than for king eiders, which also used pack ice extensively. Common eiders generally occurred near the landfast ice edge, whereas king eiders were just as often nearer to the pack ice edge of the flaw lead. Average water depth (±SE) for common eiders was 22 ± 2 m compared to 30 ± 1 m for king eiders. Kernel density estimators showed that eiders generally occurred in lower densities in areas of otherwise suitable habitat off the Mackenzie River delta. We suggest that this is a result of the highly turbid water discharged by the Mackenzie River, which limits visibility. Oil and gas exploration overlapped significantly with the areas used by eiders. The high density of birds using the restricted and ice-rich flaw lead habitats indicates that an accidental spill in the region could be catastrophic for Canada's western Arctic eider populations. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.     

The effects of predator removal on mallard production and population change in northeastern North Dakota

In 1994, Delta Waterfowl Foundation began trapping mammalian meso-predators in North Dakota during the breeding season in an attempt to increase waterfowl nest success and enhance recruitment into the fall flight and subsequent breeding population. Multiple studies on these sites demonstrated that removing predators results in near doubling of nest success, which previous simulation modeling suggests is the most influential vital rate influencing the population growth rate of mid-continent mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We present an assessment of the impact of predator removal on mallard production using population models. We conducted this study on 9 township-sized (93.2 km²) sites (4–8 sites annually per vital rate) in northeastern North Dakota from 2006–2008. Trappers removed mammalian meso-predators on 5 sites and the other 4 served as unmanaged reference sites. To estimate recruitment, we used derived estimates and process variance of pair numbers, hen success (nest survival corrected for renesting), initial brood size, pre-fledging survival, and post-fledging survival, along with previously published estimates of breeding propensity and adult female survival rates. Trapped sites had greater hen success (H = 0.69, = 0.03) than reference sites (H = 0.53, = 0.06), but similar indicated breeding pairs, initial brood size, and pre-fledging survival. We estimated that females on trapped sites added 140 more mallards of both sexes to the fall flight than females on reference sites, at an approximate cost of $74.29 per incremental mallard. Additionally, trapping predators provided a marginal increase (0.04) in finite population growth. We found that predator removal targeted at mammalian nest predators did not produce as many incremental mallards as previously thought and may not be a viable strategy for increasing mallard productivity under conditions similar to those observed during this study. We conducted a sensitivity analysis and determined that pre-fledging survival was the most influential factor regulating mallard population growth. Although hen success increased as a result of trapping, duckling survival became a limiting factor. We suggest that waterfowl managers assess multiple vital rates to determine the likelihood that management actions focused on a single parameter, such as nest success, will yield desired population level effects. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

International importance of the eastern Chukchi Sea as a staging area for migrating king eiders

The evaluation of habitats used by arctic birds on migration is crucial for their conservation. We explored the importance of the eastern Chukchi Sea (ECS) as a staging area for king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) migrating between breeding areas in Siberia and western North America and wintering areas in the Bering Sea. We tracked 190 king eiders with satellite transmitters between 1997 and 2007. In late summer, 74% of satellite-tracked king eiders migrating south staged in the ECS for 13 ± 13 (SD) days between late June and early November. During spring migration, king eiders staged in the ECS between mid-April and early June for 21 ± 10 days. All instrumented birds migrating to breeding grounds in western North America (n = 62), and 6 of 11 males migrating to breeding grounds in Siberia, used this area for at least 1 week during spring migration. The importance of this staging area renders it possible that industrial development could adversely affect king eider populations in both Siberia and North America.     

The diet of king eiders wintering in Nuuk,Southwest Greenland,with reference to sympatric wintering common eiders

Coastal and offshore waters of Southwest Greenland are internationally important wintering areas for king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) breeding in eastern Canadian Arctic and in northwestern Greenland. This paper presents the first assessment of their winter diet. Based on esophageal-proventricular samples from 26 females (13 juveniles and 13 older birds) and 15 males (11 juveniles and four older birds) collected in 2000–2002 (November–May) in coastal waters of Nuuk, we identified 28 prey species. The diet consisted of almost equal proportions (aggregate fresh mass) of polychaetes, echinoderms, crustaceans and molluscs. The dominant prey species were Pectinaria spp. (26.8%), Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (18.4%), Mya eideri (11.2%) and Hyas araneus (9.7%). The polychaetes have previously been identified as important prey for eiders in Greenland, but apparently not outside Greenland. Compared with a diet study of common eiders Somateria mollissima from the same wintering area, the king eiders consumed significantly less bivalves and significantly more echinoderms. This difference corresponded with observations that common eiders were feeding in shallow waters, while king eiders were feeding in deeper waters farther from the shore. Benthic surveys are needed to confirm that diet corresponds with prey availability.     

Evidence of Recent Population Recovery in Common Eiders Breeding in Western Greenland

ABSTRACT Severe population declines were reported for common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in western Greenland over the period 1960–2000. A monitoring program, concurrent with more restrictive hunting regulations on common eiders, revealed breeding numbers increasing by 212%, from 2,558 active nests in 2000 to 7,982 nests in 2007. Though it was not possible to directly link harvest reduction and population growth in West Greenland, a similar increase in breeding numbers in Canada was correlated with the harvest reduction in Greenland and linked to increasing adult survival and recruitment of first-time breeders, and a similar explanation is suggested for West Greenland. The study emphasizes that appropriate restrictions in hunting can be efficient in wildlife management and that common eiders can sustain dramatic rates of increase during population regrowth. It also shows that cost-efficient monitoring programs can be established through cooperation with local residents.     

Lesser Scaup Nest Success and Duckling Survival on the Yukon Flats,Alaska

Abstract: Over the last 20 years scaup numbers have declined, and these declines have been greatest in the northern boreal forests of Canada and Alaska where most lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) nest. We studied nest success and duckling survival of lesser scaup over 3 field seasons, 2001–2003, on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska, USA. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests on our study area across all 3 years was 0.943 (n = 177 nests, 95% CI: 0.930–0.954), corresponding to a nest success of only 12.3%, considerably lower than published estimates of an average nest success as high as 57% for lesser scaup in the northern boreal forest. With Mayfield logistic regression, we investigated effects on nest survival of year, clutch initiation date, and nesting habitat type (large wetlands >10 ha, small wetlands <10 ha, and wooded creeks). Neither year nor clutch initiation date influenced nest survival; however, the odds of nest success on large wetlands was 49% lower than on wooded creeks (odds ratio = 0.512, 95% CI = 0.286, 0.918). Based on the model that used only habitat type for estimation, DSR on large wetlands was 0.931 (corresponding nest success = 7.6%), DSR on small wetlands was 0.941 (nest success = 11.1%), and DSR on wooded creeks was 0.963 (nest success = 26.2%). To estimate duckling survival, we monitored 10 broods (n = 75 ducklings) over 3 field seasons by radiotagging hens at nest hatch. Most duckling mortality (94%) occurred in the first 10 days after hatch. Average duckling survival during 1–10 days was 0.321 (95% CI: 0.122–0.772), during 11–20 days was 0.996 (95% CI: 0.891–1.040), and during 21–30 days was 0.923 (95% CI: 0.769–1.041). Three of 10 hens moved all or part of their broods overland between nesting and brood-rearing wetlands for distances of 0.3–1.6 km. Our estimates of lesser scaup nest success and duckling survival on the Yukon Flats were among the lowest ever reported for ducks nesting at northern latitudes, even though the study site was in pristine boreal forest. Estimating and comparing scaup demographic rates from different geographic areas can contribute to improved conservation. Given the scarcity of information on scaup nesting in the boreal forest, basic nesting parameters are important to those trying to model scaup population dynamics.     

Survival of Breeding Pacific Common Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta,Alaska

ABSTRACT Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) breeding in Alaska, USA, have declined markedly over the past 40 years. We studied survival of adult female Pacific common eiders using capture—recapture of nesting hens at 3 sites on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska from 1994 to 2004. We used data consisting of 268 recapture events from 361 uniquely marked individuals to investigate temporal, geographic, and environmental variation in adult female survival. Our results suggest apparent annual survival of adult eiders from the YKD was high (0.892, SE = 0.022) and spatially and temporally invariant (σ² = 0.005), a pattern consistent with other long-lived marine birds. Moreover, our results suggest adult survival may be functionally fixed for Pacific common eiders, and at the present, adult survival may be relatively unresponsive to environmental or management perturbations. Our data did not support hypothesized variation in survival relative to mortality factors such as predation on breeding grounds, physiologic costs of reproduction, and wintering conditions. Although changes in adult survival likely have a large potential effect on prospective population growth, our results suggest viable management actions aimed at increasing survival may be extremely limited.     

Effects of implanted satellite transmitters on behavior and survival of female common eiders

Surgically implanted satellite transmitters have been widely used in studies of avian ecology, yet little is known about their potential impacts on birds. We implanted satellite transmitters with percutaneous antennae (approx. 50 g) in 17 female common eiders (Somateria mollissima) at a breeding colony in Arctic Canada. Among females implanted during incubation, 11 of 12 nests were abandoned within 1 week of being radioed. We observed no differences in the proportion of time that implanted female eiders allocated to basic behaviors. Radioed birds were more likely to pick or preen their abdominal (site of surgical incision) and posterior–dorsal (site of antenna exit) regions than unmarked females, although these behaviors were rare (approx. 0.3% of total time budget). Three of 10 females re-observed had a pronounced limp following surgery, but we observed no walking difficulties among these females in subsequent seasons, and we observed some implanted eiders nesting in subsequent years. Mark–resighting models suggest eiders with transmitters had lower apparent survival the year after implantation (67.0%; 85% CI: 47.8–81.9%) than did color-banded eiders (87.5%, 85% CI: 82.5–91.2%), but there was no model support for a survival difference in subsequent years. We conclude that transmitter implantation in common eiders leads to short-term changes in behavior and a decline in first year survival. We encourage researchers to collect similar data on their study subjects where possible and use it to determine the degree to which data are representative of the greater population. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Survival of Wood Duck Ducklings and Broods in Mississippi and Alabama

ABSTRACT Although North American wood ducks (Aix sponsa) are well-studied throughout their range, researchers know little about demographic and environmental factors influencing survival of ducklings and broods, which is necessary information for population management. We studied radiomarked female and duckling wood ducks that used nest boxes and palustrine wetlands at Noxubee National Wildlife Refuge (NNWR) in Mississippi, USA, in 1996–1999, and riverine wetlands of the Tennessee-Tombigbee Rivers and Waterway (TTRW) system in Alabama in 1998–1999. We estimated survival of ducklings and broods and evaluated potentially important predictors of duckling survival, including age and body mass of brood-rearing females, hatch date of ducklings, duckling mass, brood size at nest departure, inter-day travel distance by ducklings, site and habitat use, and daily minimum air temperature and precipitation. At NNWR, survival of 300 radiomarked ducklings ranged from 0.15 (95% CI = 0.04-0.27) to 0.24 (95% CI = 0.13-0.38) and was 0.21 (95% CI = 0.15-0.28) for 1996–1999. Our overall estimate of brood survival was 0.64 (n = 91; 95% CI = 0.54-0.73). At TTRW, survival of 129 radiomarked ducklings was 0.29 in 1998 (95% CI = 0.20-0.41) and 1999 (95% CI = 0.13-0.45) and was 0.29 (95% CI = 0.20-0.40) for 1998–1999. Our overall estimate of brood survival was 0.71 (n = 38; 95% CI = 0.56-0.85). At NNWR, models that included all predictor variables best explained variation in duckling survival. Akaike weight (w_i) for the best model was 0.81, suggesting it was superior to other models (<0.01 < w_i < 0.18). We detected 4 competing models for duckling survival at TTRW. Inter-day distance traveled by ducklings was important as this variable appeared in all 4 models; duckling survival was positively related to this variable. Patterns of habitat-related survival were similar at both study areas. Ducklings in broods that used scrub-shrub habitats disjunct from wetlands containing aggregations of nest boxes had greater survival probabilities than birds remaining in wetlands with such nest structures. Managers may increase local wood duck recruitment by promoting availability of suitable brood habitats (e.g., scrub-shrub wetlands) without aggregations of nest boxes that may attract predators and by dispersing nest boxes amid or adjacent to these habitats. We did not determine an optimal density of nest boxes relative to local or regional population goals, which remains important research and conservation needs.     

White-Tailed Deer Population Dynamics Following Louisiana Black Bear Recovery

Changing predator communities have been implicated in reduced survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns. Few studies, however, have used field-based age-specific estimates for survival and fecundity to assess the relative importance of low fawn survival on population growth and harvest potential. We studied white-tailed deer population dynamics on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge (TRNWR) in Louisiana, USA, where the predator community included bobcats (Lynx rufus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and a restored population of Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus). During 2013–2015, we radio-collared and monitored 70 adult (≥2.5 yrs) and 21 yearling (1.5-yr-old) female deer. Annual survival averaged 0.815 (95% CI = 0.734–0.904) for adults and 0.857 (95% CI = 0.720–1.00) for yearlings. We combined these estimates with concurrently collected fawn survival estimates (0.27; 95% CI = 0.185–0.398) to model population trajectories and elasticities. We used estimates of nonhunting survival (annual survival estimated excluding harvest mortality) to project population growth (λ) relative to 4 levels of harvest (0, 10%, 20%, 30%). Finally, we investigated effects of reduced fawn survival on population growth under current management and with elimination of female harvest. Despite substantial fawn predation, the deer population on TRNWR was increasing (λ = 1.06) and could sustain additional female harvest; however, the population was expected to decline at 20% (λ = 0.98) and 30% (λ = 0.94) female harvest. With no female harvest, the population was projected to increase with observed (λ = 1.15) and reduced fawn survival (λ = 1.02), but the population could not sustain current female harvest (10%) if fawn survival declined (λ = 0.90). For all scenarios, adult female survival was the most elastic parameter. Given the importance of adult female survival, the relative predictability in response of adult survival to harvest management, and the difficulty in altering fawn survival, reducing female harvest is likely the most efficient approach to compensate for low fawn survival. On highly productive sites such as ours, reduction, but not necessarily elimination, of harvest can mitigate effects of low fawn survival on population growth. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Winter climate affects subsequent breeding success of common eiders

The phenology of spring migration depends on the severity of the preceding winter and approaching spring. This severity can be quantified using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; positive values indicate mild winters. Although milder winters are correlated with earlier migration in many birds in temperate regions, few studies have addressed how climate‐induced variation in spring arrival relates to breeding success. In northern Europe, the NAO‐index correlates with ice cover and timing of ice break‐up of the Baltic Sea. Ice cover plays an important role for breeding waterfowl, since the timing of ice break‐up constrains both spring arrival and onset of breeding. We studied the effects of the winter‐NAO‐index and timing of ice break‐up on spring migration, laying date, clutch size, female body condition at hatching and fledging success of a short‐distance migrant common eider (Somateria mollissima) population from SW Finland, the Baltic Sea, 1991–2004 (migration data 1979–2004). We also examined the correlation between the NAO‐index and the proportion of juvenile eiders in the Danish hunting bag, which reflects the breeding success on a larger spatial scale. The body condition of breeding females and proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag showed significant positive correlations with the NAO, whereas arrival dates showed positive correlations and clutch size and fledging success showed negative correlations with the timing of ice break‐up. The results suggest that climate, which also affects ice conditions, has an important effect on the fledging success of eiders. Outbreaks of duckling disease epidemics may be the primary mechanism underlying this effect. Eider females are in poorer condition after severe winters and cannot allocate as much resources to breeding, which may impair the immune defense of ducklings. Global climate warming is expected to increase the future breeding success of eiders in our study population.     

Factors Influencing Nesting Success of King Eiders on Northern Alaska's Coastal Plain

Abstract: King eider (Somateria spectabilis) populations have declined markedly in recent decades for unknown reasons. Nest survival is one component of recruitment, and a female's chance of reproductive success increases with her ability to choose an appropriate nesting strategy. We estimated variation in daily nest survival of king eiders at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, Alaska, USA, 2002–2005. We evaluated both a priori and exploratory competing models of nest survival that considered importance of nest concealment, seclusion, and incubation constancy as strategies to avoid 2 primary egg predators, avian (Larus spp., Stercorarius spp., and Corvus corax) and fox (Alopex lagopus). We used generalized nonlinear techniques to examine factors affecting nest survival rates and information-theoretic approaches to select among competing models. Estimated nest survival, accounting for a nest visitation effect, varied considerably across sites and years (0.21–0.57); however, given our small sample size, much of this variation may be attributable to sampling variation (s̀²_process = 0.007, 95% CI: 0.003–0.070). Nest survival was higher at Kuparuk than Teshekpuk in all years; however, due to the correlative nature of our data, we cannot determine the underlying causes with any certainty. We found mixed support for the concealed breeding strategy; females derived no benefit from nesting in areas with more willow (Salix spp.; measure of concealment) except that the observer effect diminished as willow cover increased. We suggest these patterns are due to conflicting predation pressures. Nest survival was not higher on islands (measure of seclusion) or with increased incubation constancy but was higher post-fox removal, indicating that predator control on breeding grounds could be a viable management option. Nest survival was negatively affected by our nest visitations, most likely by exposing the nest to avian scavengers. We recommend precautions be taken to limit the effects of nest visits in future studies and to consider them as a possible negative bias in estimated nest survival. Future models of the impacts of development within the breeding grounds of king eider should consider the influence of humans in the vicinity of nests.     

Strategies for Nest-Site Selection by King Eiders

ABSTRACT Nest site selection is a critical component of reproduction and has presumably evolved in relation to predation, local resources, and microclimate. We investigated nest-site choice by king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) on the coastal plain of northern Alaska, USA, 2003–2005. We hypothesized that nest-site selection is driven by predator avoidance and that a variety of strategies including concealment, seclusion, and conspecific or inter-specific nest defense might lead to improved nesting success. We systematically searched wetland basins for king eider nests and measured habitat and social variables at nests (n = 212) and random locations (n = 493). King eiders made use of both secluded and concealed breeding strategies; logistic regression models revealed that females selected nests close to water, on islands, and in areas with high willow (Salix spp.) cover but did not select sites near conspecific or glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) nests. The most effective nest-placement strategy may vary depending on density and types of nest predators; seclusion is likely a mammalian-predator avoidance tactic whereas concealment may provide protection from avian predators. We recommend that managers in northern Alaska attempt to maintain wetland basins with islands and complex shorelines to provide potential nest sites in the vicinity of water.     

Population dynamics of an expanding passerine at the distribution margin

Individuals may be maladapted to novel environments at the species’ distribution margin. We investigated population dynamics in a marginal habitat where reproduction has been proven poor. Survival, population growth rate (λ) and its components, breeding and natal dispersal were studied in great tits Parus major breeding at the northern margin of its distribution in northern Finland. We used long term capture–mark–recapture data sets. Study area size and population density were used to explain adult survival rates. The average annual estimates of adult survival rose from 0.371 to 0.388 between the periods of 1971–1984 and 1999–2009. The estimates are slightly lower than estimates of small passerines in Europe. Low local survival rate of fledglings (0.050–0.055) probably reflects intensified emigration from this low quality area. Temporal variation in λ was large (0.498–1.856). Despite of low adult survival and recruitment rates, the mean estimates of λ (1.008 and 1.033) indicate an overall stability in the population size. Indeed, our results suggest that the immigration has an important role in the population dynamics of northern great tits. Thus the population is demographically and genetically dependent on core habitats which may cause adaptive problems due to intensive gene flow. Given those limitations, options for evolution of local adaptations in northern distribution margins are discussed.     

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990–2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark–recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised ≥1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (λ) estimated from average vital rates was λ_a = 1.072 with λ_i = 1.288 during colony increase and λ_d = 0.921 (Δλ = 0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Population Dynamics of Breeding Mallards in the Great Lakes States

Abstract: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations in the United States portion of the Great Lakes region increased through the 1990s but have since declined. To promote sustainable growth of this population, managers need to understand how perturbation of vital rates will affect annual population growth rate (Λ). We developed a stage-based model representing the female mallard population in the Great Lakes using vital rates generated from a landscape-level study documenting reproductive parameters from 2001 to 2003. We conducted perturbation analyses (i.e., sensitivity analyses) to identify vital rates that most influence Λ and variance decomposition analyses to determine the proportion of variation in Λ explained by variation in each vital rate. Perturbation analyses indicated that Λ was most sensitive to changes in nonbreeding survival, duckling survival, and nest success. Therefore, changes in these vital rates would be expected to result in the greatest ΔΛ. Process variation in breeding season parameters accounted for 63% of variation in Λ. Breeding season parameters explaining the most variation were duckling survival (32%) and nest success (16%). Survival of adult females outside the breeding season accounted for 36% of variation in Λ. Harvest derivation, high harvest, and high sensitivity of Λ to nonbreeding survival for Great Lakes female mallards suggests there is a strong potential for managing the Great Lakes mallard population via harvest management. Because Λ was highly sensitive to changes in duckling survival, we suggest programs that emphasize wetland protection, enhancement, and restoration as a management strategy to improve population growth for breeding mallards.     

Factors influencing rate of decline in a Merriam's wild turkey population

We investigated population growth rate (λ) for a Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) population in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We constructed and evaluated a females-only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained from 2016–2018 was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.60, 0.88), which indicates that the vital rates were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in juvenile survival, yearling survival, and adult reproduction. We could only achieve stable or growing populations (i.e., λ ≥ 1) by increasing the probability of adult and yearling survival (holding all other vital rates constant). Estimated adult survival rate in the work reported here was lower than values reported for other populations in the Black Hills; therefore, managing for increased female survival (≥0.68) may be the most practical strategy for promoting wild turkey population growth in this system. We recommend no female harvest during any open turkey season.     

Avian cholera,post‐hatching survival and selection on hatch characteristics in a long‐lived bird,the common eider Somateria mollisima

Infectious diseases can have dramatic impacts on animal population dynamics, but how they influence vital rates remains understudied. We took advantage of the appearance of an avian cholera epizootic in an arctic colony of common eiders Somateria mollissima to study variation in juvenile survival and selection on hatch characteristics in relation to this highly infectious disease. Avian cholera is one of the most important infectious diseases affecting wild birds and is thought to primarily affect adult survival. Here, we show that avian cholera was associated with a 90% decline in duckling survival, leading to almost zero recruitment. Before the cholera outbreak, there was significant stabilizing selection on hatching date and significant positive directional selection on hatching mass. During cholera outbreaks, selection on hatch characteristics was no longer significant. These results were based on a low sample of surviving ducklings in cholera years, but suggested that date and mass at hatching did no longer affect duckling survival in the presence of cholera. These effects of avian cholera on post‐hatching survival were likely not only the consequence of the disease per se, but also a consequence of an increase in predation rates that followed the emergence of avian cholera. Our results emphasize the dramatic direct and indirect impacts that infectious disease can have on vital rates, and thus population dynamics.     

Life history patterns,individual heterogeneity,and density dependence in breeding common goldeneyes of the northern boreal forest

Life history patterns and their associated tradeoffs influence population dynamics, as they determine how individuals allocate resources among competing demographic traits. Here we examined life history strategies in common goldeneyes Bucephala clangula (hereafter goldeneye), a cavity‐nesting sea duck, in the northern boreal forest of interior Alaska, USA. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to estimate adult survival, breeding probability, first‐year survival, and recruitment probability using a long‐term nest box study (1997–2010). We detected annual variation in adult survival, which varied from 0.74 ± 0.12 (SE) to 0.93 ± 0.06. In contrast, breeding probability remained relatively high and invariant (0.84 ± 0.11) and was positively related to individual nest success the year prior. Nonbreeding individuals in one year were more likely to remain a nonbreeder, than attempt to breed the following year. First‐year survival decreased with smaller residual duckling mass and larger brood sizes. Probability of recruitment into the breeding population conditioned on survival was constant during the study (0.96 ± 0.06), and did not vary among ages 2–5 yr‐old. Overall, goldeneyes exhibited high, but somewhat variable, adult survival, and high breeding and recruitment probabilities, which is consistent with observed patterns in bet‐hedging species that breed annually in high quality breeding environments, but whose reproductive output is often influenced by stochastic events. Demographic estimates from this study are among the first for goldeneyes within Alaska. Life history patterns are known to vary geographically, therefore, we recommend further examination of life history patterns within the distribution of goldeneyes.