Identifying glacial refugia in a geographic parthenogen using palaeoclimate modelling and phylogeography: the New Zealand stick insect Argosarchus horridus (White)

We have used phylogeographic analysis of mitochondrial DNA (COI and COII genes) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to reconstruct the population history of Argosarchus horridus (White), a widespread species of New Zealand stick insect. These data were used to address outstanding questions on the role of glacial refugia in determining the distribution and genetic structure of New Zealand species. Phylogeographic analysis shows a general pattern of high diversity in upper North Island and reduced diversity in lower North Island and South Island. The ENM indicates that during the last glacial maximum, A. horridus was largely restricted to refugia around coastal areas of North Island. The ENM also suggests refugia on the northeast coast of South Island and southeast coast of North Island and this prediction is verified by phylogeographic analysis, which shows a clade restricted to this region. Argosarchus horridus is also most likely a geographic parthenogen where males are much rarer at higher latitudes. The higher levels of genetic variation in northern, bisexual populations suggest southern and largely unisexual populations originated from southwardly expanding parthenogenetic lineages. Bayesian skyline analysis also provides support for a recent population size increase consistent with a large increase in geographic distribution in the late Pleistocene. These results exemplify the utility of integrating ENM and phylogeographic analysis in testing hypotheses on the origin of geographic parthenogenesis and effects of Pleistocene environmental change on biodiversity.     

Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling implicate coastal refugia and trans‐alpine dispersal of a New Zealand fungus beetle

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) severely restricted forest ecosystems on New Zealand’s South Island, but the extent of LGM distribution for forest species is still poorly understood. We used mitochondrial DNA phylogeography (COI) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify LGM refugia for the mycophagous beetle Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae), a forest edge species widely distributed in the South Island. Both the phylogenetic analyses and the ENM indicate that A. labralis refuged in Kaikoura, Nelson, and along much of the South Island’s west coast. Phylogeography of this species indicates that recolonization of the largely deforested east and southeast South Island occurred in a west–east direction, with populations moving through the Southern Alps, and that the northern refugia participated little in interglacial population expansion. This contradicts published studies of other New Zealand species, in which recolonization occurs in a north–south fashion from many of the same refugia.     

Reconciling phylogeography and ecological niche models for New Zealand beetles: Looking beyond glacial refugia

Mitochondrial DNA (cox1) sequence data and recently developed coalescent phylogeography models were used to construct geo-spatial histories for the New Zealand fungus beetles Epistranus lawsoni and Pristoderus bakewelli (Zopheridae). These methods utilize continuous-time Markov chains and Bayesian stochastic search variable selection incorporated in BEAST to identify historical dispersal patterns via ancestral state reconstruction. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were incorporated to reconstruct the potential geographic distribution of each species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Coalescent analyses suggest a North Island origin for E. lawsoni, with gene flow predominately north-south between adjacent regions. ENMs for E. lawsoni indicated glacial refugia in coastal regions of both main islands, consistent with phylogenetic patterns but at odds with the coalescent dates, which implicate much older topographic events. Dispersal matrices revealed patterns of gene flow consistent with projected refugia, suggesting long-term South Island survival with population vicariance around the Southern Alps. Phylogeographic relationships are more ambiguous for P. bakewelli, although long-term survival on both main islands is evident. Divergence dates for both species are consistent with the topographic evolution of New Zealand over the last 10Ma, whereas the signature of the LGM is less apparent in the time-scaled phylogeny.     

Phylogeography reveals a North Island range extension for New Zealand's only sexually wing-dimorphic stonefly (Stenoperla helsoni)

Stenoperla helsoni is an endemic New Zealand stonefly characterised by distinctive sexually dimorphic wing loss. Previous distribution records indicated that this species was restricted to the South Island's Southern Alps, although our recent collections of wing-reduced specimens from a site in the Tararua Ranges suggest that this species may extend into the lower North Island. We amplified the mitochondrial COI gene to confirm the identity of North Island specimens, and to assess phylogeographic structuring within the species and genus. North Island specimens were confirmed as S. helsoni, indicating that this species has a much wider geographic range than previously thought. This broad distribution, combined with low levels of intraspecific divergence, suggests that female S. helsoni may be strong fliers, despite males being flightless. Distinct North Island and South Island populations were identified, with a 1.5% divergence between the two populations.     

Postglacial colonization of Europe by the barbastelle bat: agreement between molecular data and past predictive modelling

The barbastelle (Barbastella barbastellus) is a rare forest bat with a wide distribution in Europe. Here, we combine results from the analysis of two mtDNA fragments with species distribution modelling to determine glacial refugia and postglacial colonization routes. We also investigated whether niche conservatism occurs in this species. Glacial refugia were identified in the three southern European peninsulas: Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. These latter two refugia played a major role in the postglacial colonization process, with their populations expanding to England and central Europe, respectively. Palaeo‐distribution models predicted that suitable climatic conditions existed in the inferred refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Nevertheless, the overlap between the current and the LGM distributions was almost inexistent in Italy and in the Balkans, meaning that B. barbastellus populations were forced to shift range between glacial and interglacial periods, a process that probably caused some local extinctions. In contrast, Iberian populations showed a ‘refugia within refugium’ pattern, with two unconnected areas containing stable populations (populations that subsisted during both glacial and interglacial phases). Moreover, the match between LGM models and the refugial areas determined by molecular analysis supported the hypothesis of niche conservatism in B. barbastellus. We argue that geographic patterns of genetic structuring, altogether with the modelling results, indicate the existence of four management units for conservation: Morocco, Iberia, Italy and UK, and Balkans and central Europe. In addition, all countries sampled possessed unique gene pools, thus stressing the need for the conservation of local populations.     

Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal the phylogeographic pattern of Cotinus coggygria (Anacardiaceae) in China's warm‐temperate zone

The phylogeography of common and widespread species helps to elucidate the history of local flora and vegetation. In this study, we selected Cotinus coggygria, a species widely distributed in China's warm‐temperate zone. One chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) region and ecological niche modelling were used to examine the phylogeographic pattern of C. coggygria. The cpDNA data revealed two phylogeographic groups (Southern and Northern) corresponding to the geographic regions. Divergence time analyses revealed that divergence of the two groups occurred at approximately 147,000 years before the present (BP), which coincided with the formation of the downstream area of the Yellow River, indicating that the Yellow River was a weak phylogeographic divide for C. coggygria. The molecular data and ecological niche modelling also indicated that C. coggyria did not experience population expansion after glaciations. This study thus supports the fact that Pleistocene glacial cycles only slightly affected C. coggygria, which survived in situ and occupied multiple localised glacial refugia during glaciations. This finding is contrary to the hypothesis of large‐scale range habitat contraction and retreat into a few main refugia.     

Evolutionary history of the scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Mecoptera,Panorpidae)

Climate changes can have fundamental impacts on the distributional patterns of montane species, and range shifts frequently lead to allopatric divergence followed by the establishment of secondary contact zones. Many European and North American organisms have retreated to southern refugia during glacial periods and colonized northward during postglacial periods, but little is known about the evolutionary response of cold‐adapted insects to Pleistocene climate changes in eastern Asia. The scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Chou), with cold temperate habitat preference and weak dispersal ability, provides a good model system to explore how climate changes have influenced the distribution and divergence of cold‐adapted insects in eastern Asia. This study reconstructed the demographic dynamics and evolutionary history of D. magna with phylogeographic approaches, and predicted the species’ suitable areas under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and current scenarios with the ecological niche modelling analysis. The mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I resolved three phylogenetic lineages in D. magna dating back to Pleistocene, corresponding well with the geographically isolated Qinling, Bashan and Minshan Mountains. The ecological niche modelling recovered the suitable habitats for D. magna were the Qinling and Bashan Mountains under LGM and current conditions. The three lineages of D. magna might be in a process of incipient speciation, and likely derived their current distribution from separate glacial origins, followed by vicariance and divergence.     

Significant Asia‐Europe divergence in the middle spotted woodpecker (Aves,Picidae)

Population divergence could be strongly affected by species’ ecology and might not be a direct response to climate‐driven environmental change. We tested this in the middle spotted woodpecker (Dendrocoptes medius), a non‐migratory, low‐dispersal habitat specialist associated with old deciduous forests of the Western Palearctic. We present the first phylogeographic study of this species integrating genetic data (three mitochondrial loci, one autosomal and one Z‐linked intron) with species distribution modelling. Based on this species’ ecology, we predicted that the middle spotted woodpecker could have colonized its current range from multiple Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia and that strongly structured populations could be expected. Indeed, we discovered a strong genetic divergence between Asian and European populations, with a split estimated at around one million of years ago. This was surprising given only slight intraspecific variation in plumage and morphology. Although there was no significant phylogeographic structure within the Asian and European groups, we cannot exclude the possibility of multiple refugia within either group during the LGM. This has to be further investigated with more extensive geographic sampling and larger number of variable independently evolving markers. Future studies should also investigate potential differences in vocalizations and ecology between the two groups. Lineages showing similar level of genetic differentiation including woodpeckers are often treated as species‐level taxa. Comparison of our results with the phylogeographic history of other woodpeckers, suggests that sympatric species with similar life‐histories might have idiosyncratic phylogeographic patterns probably resulting from different ecological requirements or historic stochasticity.     

How did the exposed seafloor function in postglacial northward range expansion of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Kalopanax septemlobus</Emphasis>? Evidence from ecological niche modelling

We attempted to clarify how coastal lands temporarily exposed during the last glacial maximum (LGM) contributed to the northward colonisation of Kalopanax septemlobus (Thunb. ex Murray) Koidzumi during the postglacial period in the Japanese Archipelago. Distribution records in 30-arc-s pixels were related to bioclimate variables using the maximum entropy technique to model the ecological niche of this species. Bioclimatic conditions in the exposed coastal lands during the LGM were reconstructed based on simulated palaeoclimate and fine-resolution marine topography. Potential distribution ranges were then estimated under the climatic conditions during the LGM, mid-Holocene and the present. The ecological niche of this species was influenced mainly by the temperature component of the bioclimates, leading to northward range shift after the LGM as the climate warmed. On average, 26% of the potential range of K. septemlobus during the LGM was located on the exposed seafloor. The northern edges of the species range on both sides of Honshu Island were estimated by up to several hundred kilometres farther north, when compared to the prediction assuming no sea level change. Application of ecological niche modelling provided new insight into the role of exposed seafloor as cryptic glacial refugia for this species, which has never been evidenced by fossil records. In a temperate island system characterised by long coastlines, the northern exposed seafloor would have been more important in terms of harbouring the putative source populations for northward directional colonisation during the postglacial period.     

Northern glacial refugia for the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus in Europe revealed by phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling

The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are traditionally recognized as glacial refugia from where many species colonized central and northern Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, evidence that some species had more northerly refugia is accumulating from phylogeographic, palaeontological and palynological studies, and more recently from species distribution modelling (SDM), but further studies are needed to test the idea of northern refugia in Europe. Here, we take a rarely implemented multidisciplinary approach to assess if the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus, a widespread Eurasian mammal species, had northern refugia during the LGM, and if these influenced its postglacial geographic distribution. First, we evaluated the phylogeographic and population expansion patterns using mtDNA sequence data from 123 pygmy shrews. Then, we used SDM to predict present and past (LGM) potential distributions using two different training data sets, two different algorithms (Maxent and GARP) and climate reconstructions for the LGM with two different general circulation models. An LGM distribution in the southern peninsulas was predicted by the SDM approaches, in line with the occurrence of lineages of S. minutus in these areas. The phylogeographic analyses also indicated a widespread and strictly northern‐central European lineage, not derived from southern peninsulas, and with a postglacial population expansion signature. This was consistent with the SDM predictions of suitable LGM conditions for S. minutus occurring across central and eastern Europe, from unglaciated parts of the British Isles to much of the eastern European Plain. Hence, S. minutus likely persisted in parts of central and eastern Europe during the LGM, from where it colonized other northern areas during the late‐glacial and postglacial periods. Our results provide new insights into the glacial and postglacial colonization history of the European mammal fauna, notably supporting glacial refugia further north than traditionally recognized.     

Population genomic evidence for multiple Pliocene refugia in a montane‐restricted harvestman (Arachnida,Opiliones, Sclerobunus robustus) from the southwestern United States

The integration of ecological niche modelling into phylogeographic analyses has allowed for the identification and testing of potential refugia under a hypothesis‐based framework, where the expected patterns of higher genetic diversity in refugial populations and evidence of range expansion of nonrefugial populations are corroborated with empirical data. In this study, we focus on a montane‐restricted cryophilic harvestman, Sclerobunus robustus, distributed throughout the heterogeneous Southern Rocky Mountains and Intermontane Plateau of southwestern North America. We identified hypothetical refugia using ecological niche models (ENMs) across three time periods, corroborated these refugia with population genetic methods using double‐digest RAD‐seq data and conducted population‐level phylogenetic and divergence dating analyses. ENMs identify two large temporally persistent regions in the mid‐latitude highlands. Genetic patterns support these two hypothesized refugia with higher genetic diversity within refugial populations and evidence for range expansion in populations found outside hypothesized refugia. Phylogenetic analyses identify five to six genetically divergent, geographically cohesive clades of S. robustus. Divergence dating analyses suggest that these separate refugia date to the Pliocene and that divergence between clades pre‐dates the late Pleistocene glacial cycles, while diversification within clades was likely driven by these cycles. Population genetic analyses reveal effects of both isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE), with IBD more important in the continuous mountainous portion of the distribution, while IBE was stronger in the populations inhabiting the isolated sky islands of the south. Using model‐based coalescent approaches, we find support for postdivergence migration between clades from separate refugia.     

Multiple glacial refugia for cool‐temperate deciduous trees in northern East Asia: the Mongolian oak as a case study

In East Asia, temperate forests are predicted to have retracted southward to c. 30° N during the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on fossil pollen data, whereas phylogeographic studies have often suggested glacial in situ survival of cool‐temperate deciduous trees in their modern northern ranges. Here we report a study of the genetic diversity and structure of 29 natural Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) populations using 19 nuclear simple sequence repeat (nSSR) loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments. Bayesian clustering analysis with nSSRs revealed five groups, which were inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to have diverged in multiple refugia through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Analysis of chloroplast DNA variation revealed four lineages that were largely but incompletely geographically disjunct. Ecological niche modelling (ENMs) indicated a southward range shift of the oak's distribution at the LGM, although high suitability scores were also evident in the Changbai Mts. (Northeast China), the Korean Peninsula, areas surrounding the Bohai Sea, and along the coast of the Russian Far East. In addition, endemic chloroplast DNA haplotypes and nuclear lineages occurred in high‐latitude northern areas where the ENM predicted no suitable habitat. The combined evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA, and the results of the ENM clearly demonstrate that multiple northern refugia, including cryptic ones, were maintained across the current distributional range of the Mongolian oak during the LGM or earlier glacial periods. Though spatially limited, postglacial expansions from these refugia have led to a pattern of decreased genetic diversity with increasing latitude.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Extensive intraspecific genetic diversity of a freshwater crayfish in a biodiversity hotspot

1. The freshwater crayfish Cherax dispar (Decapoda: Parastacidae) inhabits coastal regions and islands of South East Queensland, Australia. We hypothesised that populations of C. dispar on different islands would be more genetically divergent from each other than populations from different drainages within the same island or on the mainland. 2. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were conducted on two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome oxidase subunit I & 16S ribosomal DNA) and one nuclear gene (Internal Transcribed Spacer region 2). Phylogeographic patterns were compared with those for other freshwater organisms in the area. 3. Deep genetic divergences were found within C. dispar, including four highly divergent (up to 20%) clades. The geographic distribution of each of the clades revealed strong latitudinal structuring along the coast rather than structuring among the islands. The high genetic divergence observed among the C. dispar clades was estimated to have pre‐dated island formation and may represent ancient river drainage patterns. 4. A restricted distribution was observed for the most divergent clade, which was discovered only on two of the sand islands (North Stradbroke Island and Moreton Island). Furthermore, strong phylogeographic structuring was observed within this clade on North Stradbroke Island, where no haplotypes were shared between samples from opposite sides of the island. This low connectivity within the island supports the idea that C. dispar rarely disperse terrestrially (i.e. across watersheds).     

Geographic parthenogenesis and the common tea‐tree stick insect of New Zealand

Worldwide, parthenogenetic reproduction has evolved many times in the stick insects (Phasmatidae). Many parthenogenetic stick insects show the distribution pattern known as geographic parthenogenesis, in that they occupy habitats that are at higher altitude or latitude compared with their sexual relatives. Although it is often assumed that, in the short term, parthenogenetic populations will have a reproductive advantage over sexual populations; this is not necessarily the case. We present data on the distribution and evolutionary relationships of sexual and asexual populations of the New Zealand stick insect, Clitarchus hookeri. Males are common in the northern half of the species’ range but rare or absent elsewhere, and we found that most C. hookeri from putative‐parthenogenetic populations share a common ancestor. Female stick insects from bisexual populations of Clitarchus hookeri are capable of parthenogenetic reproduction, but those insects from putative‐parthenogenetic populations produced few offspring via sexual reproduction when males were available. We found similar fertility (hatching success) in mated and virgin females. Mated females produce equal numbers of male and female offspring, with most hatching about 9–16 weeks after laying. In contrast, most eggs from unmated females took longer to hatch (21–23 weeks), and most offspring were female. It appears that all C. hookeri females are capable of parthenogenetic reproduction, and thus could benefit from the numerical advantage this yields. Nevertheless, our phylogeographic evidence shows that the majority of all‐female populations over a wide geographic area originate from a single loss of sexual reproduction.     

Glacial refugia in a maritime temperate climate: Cicada (Kikihia subalpina) mtDNA phylogeography in New Zealand

Understanding the biological significance of Pleistocene glaciations requires knowledge of the nature and extent of habitat refugia during glacial maxima. An opportunity to examine evidence of glacial forest refugia in a maritime, Southern Hemisphere setting is found in New Zealand, where the extent of Pleistocene forests remains controversial. We used the mitochondrial phylogeography of a forest-edge cicada ( Kikihia subalpina ) to test the hypothesis that populations of this species survived throughout South Island during the Last Glacial Maximum. We also compared mitochondrial DNA phylogeographic patterns with male song patterns that suggest allopatric divergence across Cook Strait. Cytochrome oxidase I and II sequences were analyzed using network analysis, maximum-likelihood phylogenetic estimation, Bayesian dating and Bayesian skyline plots. K. subalpina haplotypes from North Island and South Island form monophyletic clades that are concordant with song patterns. Song divergence corresponds to approximately 2% genetic divergence, and Bayesian dating suggests that the North Island and South Island population-lineages became isolated around 761 000 years bp . Almost all South Island genetic variation is found in the north of the island, consistent with refugia in Marlborough Sounds, central Nelson and northwest Nelson. All central and southern South Island and Stewart Island haplotypes are extremely similar to northern South Island haplotypes, a 'northern richness/southern purity' pattern that mirrors genetic patterns observed in many Northern Hemisphere taxa. Proposed southern South Island forest habitat fragments may have been too small to sustain populations of K. subalpina , and/or they may have harboured ecological communities with no modern-day analogues.     

Contrasting patterns of population structure and demographic history in cryptic species of Bostrychia intricata (Rhodomelaceae,Rhodophyta) from New Zealand

Spatial patterns of genetic diversity provide insight into the demography and history of species. Morphologically similar but genetically distinct “cryptic” species are increasingly being recognized in marine organisms through molecular analyses. Such species are, on closer inspection, often discovered to display contrasting life histories or occasionally minor morphological differences; molecular tools can thus be useful indicators of diversity. Bostrychia intricata, a marine red alga, is widely distributed throughout the Southern Hemisphere and comprises many cryptic species. We used mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene sequences to assess the genetic variation, population genetic structure, and demographic history of B. intricata in New Zealand. Our results supported the existence of three cryptic species of B. intricata (N2, N4, and N5) in New Zealand. Cryptic species N4, which was found throughout New Zealand, showed a higher genetic diversity and wider distribution than the other two species, which were only found in the North Island and northern South Island. Our analyses showed low to moderate genetic differentiation among eastern North Island populations for cryptic species N2, but high differentiation among North and South Island populations for N4, suggesting different population structure between these cryptic species. Data also indicated that N2 has recently undergone population expansion, probably since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), while the higher genetic diversity in N4 populations suggests persistence in situ through the LGM. The contrasting population structures and inferred demographic histories of these species highlight that life history can vary greatly even among morphologically indistinguishable taxa.     

Phylogeographic analysis of North American populations of the parasitic herbaceous plant Monotropa hypopitys L. reveals a complex history of range expansion from multiple late glacial refugia

Aim We carried out a phylogeographic study across the range of the herbaceous plant species Monotropa hypopitys L. in North America to determine whether its current disjunct distribution is due to recolonization from separate eastern and western refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location North America: Pacific Northwest and north‐eastern USA/south‐eastern Canada. Methods Palaeodistribution modelling was carried out to determine suitable climatic regions for M. hypopitys at the LGM. We analysed between 155 and 176 individuals from 39 locations spanning the species’ entire range in North America. Sequence data were obtained for the chloroplast rps2 gene (n = 168) and for the nuclear ITS region (n = 158). Individuals were also genotyped for eight microsatellite loci (n = 176). Interpolation of diversity values was used to visualize the range‐wide distribution of genetic diversity for each of the three marker classes. Minimum spanning networks were constructed showing the relationships between the rps2 and ITS haplotypes, and the geographical distributions of these haplotypes were plotted. The numbers of genetic clusters based on the microsatellite data were estimated using Bayesian clustering approaches. Results The palaeodistribution modelling indicated suitable climate envelopes for M. hypopitys at the LGM in both the Pacific Northwest and south‐eastern USA. High levels of genetic diversity and endemic haplotypes were found in Oregon, the Alexander Archipelago, Wisconsin, and in the south‐eastern part of the species’ distribution range. Main conclusions Our results suggest a complex recolonization history for M. hypopitys in North America, involving persistence in separate eastern and western refugia. A generally high degree of congruence between the different marker classes analysed indicated the presence of multiple refugia, with at least two refugia in each area. In the west, putative refugia were identified in Oregon and the Alexander Archipelago, whereas eastern refugia may have been located in the southern part of the species’ current distribution, as well as in the ‘Driftless Area’. These findings are in contrast to a previous study on the related species Orthilia secunda, which has a similar disjunct distribution to M. hypopitys, but which appears to have recolonized solely from western refugia.     

Present,past and future of the European rock fern Asplenium fontanum: combining distribution modelling and population genetics to study the effect of climate change on geographic range and genetic diversity

Background and Aims

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range of many plant species dramatically. Predicting this response will be critical to managing the conservation of plant resources and the effects of invasive species. The aim of this study was to predict the response of temperate homosporous ferns to climate change.

Methods

Genetic diversity and changes in distribution range were inferred for the diploid rock fern Asplenium fontanum along a South–North transect, extending from its putative last glacial maximum (LGM) refugia in southern France towards southern Germany and eastern-central France. This study reconciles observations from distribution models and phylogeographic analyses derived from plastid and nuclear diversity.

Key Results

Genetic diversity distribution and niche modelling propose that genetic diversity accumulates in the LGM climate refugium in southern France with the formation of a diversity gradient reflecting a slow, post-LGM range expansion towards the current distribution range. Evidence supports the fern''s preference for outcrossing, contradicting the expectation that homosporous ferns would populate new sites by single-spore colonization. Prediction of climate and distribution range change suggests that a dramatic loss of range and genetic diversity in this fern is possible. The observed migration is best described by the phalanx expansion model.

Conclusions

The results suggest that homosporous ferns reproducing preferentially by outcrossing accumulate genetic diversity primarily in LGM climate refugia and may be threatened if these areas disappear due to global climate change.