Impact of agronomic uncertainty in biomass production and endogenous commodity prices on cellulosic biofuel feedstock composition

This study evaluates the effect of agronomic uncertainty on bioenergy crop production as well as endogenous commodity and biomass prices on the feedstock composition of cellulosic biofuels under a binding mandate in the United States. The county‐level simulation model focuses on both field crops (corn, soybean, and wheat) and biomass feedstocks (corn stover, wheat straw, switchgrass, and Miscanthus). In addition, pasture serves as a potential area for bioenergy crop production. The economic model is calibrated to 2022 in terms of yield, crop demand, and baseline prices and allocates land optimally among the alternative crops given the binding cellulosic biofuel mandate. The simulation scenarios differ in terms of bioenergy crop type (switchgrass and Miscanthus) and yield, biomass production inputs, and pasture availability. The cellulosic biofuel mandates range from 15 to 60 billion L. The results indicate that the 15 and 30 billion L mandates in the high production input scenarios for switchgrass and Miscanthus are covered entirely by agricultural residues. With the exception of the low production input for Miscanthus scenario, the share of agricultural residues is always over 50% for all other scenarios including the 60 billion L mandate. The largest proportion of agricultural land dedicated to either switchgrass or Miscanthus is found in the southern Plains and the southeast. Almost no bioenergy crops are grown in the Midwest across all scenarios. Changes in the prices for the three commodities are negligible for cellulosic ethanol mandates because most of the mandate is met with agricultural residues. The lessons learned are that (1) the share of agricultural residue in the feedstock mix is higher than previously estimated and (2) for a given mandate, the feedstock composition is relatively stable with the exception of one scenario.     

An integrated biogeochemical and economic analysis of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States

This study integrates a biophysical model with a county‐specific economic analysis of breakeven prices of bioenergy crop production to assess the biophysical and economic potential of biofuel production in the Midwestern United States. The bioenergy crops considered in this study include a genotype of Miscanthus, Miscanthus×giganteus, and the Cave‐in‐Rock breed of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). The estimated average peak biomass yield for miscanthus in the Midwestern states ranges between 7 and 48 metric tons dry matter per hectare per year ( t DM ha^?1 yr^?1), while that for switchgrass is between 10 and 16 t DM ha^?1 yr^?1. With the exception of Minnesota and Wisconsin, where miscanthus yields are likely to be low due to cold soil temperatures, the yield of miscanthus is on average more than two times higher than yield of switchgrass. We find that the breakeven price, which includes the cost of producing the crop and the opportunity cost of land, of producing miscanthus ranges from $53 t^?1 DM in Missouri to $153 t^?1 DM in Minnesota in the low‐cost scenario. Corresponding costs for switchgrass are $88 t^?1 DM in Missouri to $144 t^?1 DM in Minnesota. In the high‐cost scenario, the lowest cost for miscanthus is $85 t^?1 DM and for switchgrass is $118 t^?1 DM, both in Missouri. These two scenarios differ in their assumptions about ease of establishing the perennial crops, nutrient requirements and harvesting costs and losses. The differences in the breakeven prices across states and across crops are mainly driven by bioenergy and row crop yields per hectare. Our results suggest that while high yields per unit of land of bioenergy crops are critical for the competitiveness of bioenergy feedstocks, the yields of the row crops they seek to displace are also an important consideration. Even high yielding crops, such as miscanthus, are likely to be economically attractive only in some locations in the Midwest given the high yields of corn and soybean in the region.     

Modeling biogeochemical impacts of bioenergy buffers with perennial grasses for a row‐crop field in Illinois

Current research on the environmental sustainability of bioenergy has largely focused on the potential of bioenergy crops to sequester carbon and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and possible impacts on water quality and quantity. A key assumption in these studies is that bioenergy crops will be grown in a manner similar to current agricultural crops such as corn and hence would affect the environment similarly. In this study, we investigate an alternative cropping system where bioenergy crops are grown in buffer strips adjacent to current agricultural crops such that nutrients present in runoff and leachate from the traditional row‐crops are reused by the bioenergy crops (switchgrass, miscanthus and native prairie grasses) in the buffer strips, thus providing environmental services and meeting economic needs of farmers. The process‐based biogeochemical model Denitrification‐Decomposition (DNDC) was used to simulate crop yield, nitrous oxide production and nitrate concentrations in leachate for a typical agricultural field in Illinois. Model parameters have been developed for the first time for miscanthus and switchgrass in DNDC. Results from model simulations indicated that growing bioenergy crops in buffer strips mitigated nutrient runoff, reduced nitrate concentrations in leachate by 60–70% and resulted in a reduction of 50–90% in nitrous oxide emissions compared with traditional cropping systems. While all the bioenergy crop buffers had significant positive environmental benefits, switchgrass performed the best with respect to minimizing nutrient runoff and nitrous oxide emissions, while miscanthus had the highest yield. Overall, our model results indicated that the bioenergy crops grown in these buffer strips achieved yields that are comparable to those obtained for traditional agricultural systems while simultaneously providing environmental services and could be used to design sustainable agricultural landscapes.     

Combining choice modeling estimates and stochastic simulations to assess the potential of new crops—The case of lignocellulosic perennials in Southwestern Germany

In the future, the lignocellulosic perennial crops short rotation coppice (SRC) and miscanthus are supposed to provide renewable raw materials for a bio‐based economy. To assess the potential regional supply of these crops, which are not yet widespread in Baden–Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany), we used a two‐step approach. In a first step, we conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) in regions of Baden–Wuerttemberg that—given their site conditions—are suitable for SRC or miscanthus. The respondents were characterized by significant preference heterogeneity for both (negatively valued) perennial crops and for all presented choice attributes. Thus, it was appropriate to estimate a random parameter logit model (RPL). The attributes average yearly contribution margin, long‐term purchase guarantee and cultivation by colleagues in the neighborhood had a significantly positive effect on the likelihood of cultivation, whereas the attributes contribution margin variability and initial investment need showed a significantly negative effect. In a second step, assuming realistic values for the levels of the attributes considered in the DCE, in stochastic simulations, we randomly draw part‐worth utilities from the multivariate normal distribution of these parameters according to the RPL results. This way, for alternative biomass prices, we derived shares of farmers’ willing to engage in perennial crop production and produced related regional supply functions. Under moderate yield and realistic input and farmland opportunity cost assumptions, the full regional miscanthus potential can only be achieved when farmers are offered either subsidies or price‐risk‐reducing long‐term contracts. Based on empirically determined heterogeneous farmer preferences, our two‐step approach is suitable to yield realistic estimations of any not yet implemented farming practices. We finally note caveats related to our analysis and discuss some policy implications of the major findings.     

Where can switchgrass production be more profitable than corn and soybean? An integrated subfield assessment in Iowa,USA

Perennial bioenergy crops are considered an important feedstock for a growing bioeconomy. However, in the USA, production of biofuel from these dedicated, nonfood crops is lagging behind federal mandates and markets have yet to develop. Most studies on the economic potential of perennial biofuel crops have concluded that even high‐yielding bioenergy grasses are unprofitable compared to corn/soybeans, the prevailing crops in the United States Corn Belt. However, they did not account for opportunities precision agriculture presents to integrate perennials into agronomically and economically underperforming parts of corn/soybean fields. Using publicly available subfield data and market projections, we identified an upper bound to the areas in Iowa, United States, where the conversion from corn/soybean cropland to an herbaceous bioenergy crop, switchgrass, could be economically viable under different price, land tenancy, and yield scenarios. Assuming owned land, medium crop prices, and a biomass price of US$ 55 Mg^?1, we showed that 4.3% of corn/soybean cropland could break even when converted to switchgrass yielding up to 10.08 Mg ha^?1. The annualized change in net present value on each converted subfield patch ranged from just above US$ 0 ha^?1 to 692 ha^?1. In the three counties of highest economic opportunity, total annualized producer benefits from converting corn/soybean to switchgrass summed to US$ 2.6 million, 3.4 million, and 7.6 million, respectively. This is the first study to quantify an upper bound to the potential private economic benefits from targeted conversion of unfavorable corn/soybean cropland to switchgrass, leaving arable land already under perennial cover unchanged. Broadly, we conclude that areas with high within‐field yield variation provide highest economic opportunities for switchgrass conversion. Our results are relevant for policy design intended to improve the sustainability of agricultural production. While focused on Iowa, this approach is applicable to other intensively farmed regions globally with similar data availability.     

Identifying potential areas for biofuel production and evaluating the environmental effects: a case study of the James River Basin in the Midwestern United States

Biofuels are now an important resource in the United States because of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Both increased corn growth for ethanol production and perennial dedicated energy crop growth for cellulosic feedstocks are potential sources to meet the rising demand for biofuels. However, these measures may cause adverse environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. This study 1) evaluates the long‐term impacts of increased frequency of corn in the crop rotation system on water quantity and quality as well as soil fertility in the James River Basin and 2) identifies potential grasslands for cultivating bioenergy crops (e.g. switchgrass), estimating the water quality impacts. We selected the soil and water assessment tool, a physically based multidisciplinary model, as the modeling approach to simulate a series of biofuel production scenarios involving crop rotation and land cover changes. The model simulations with different crop rotation scenarios indicate that decreases in water yield and soil nitrate nitrogen (NO₃‐N) concentration along with an increase in NO₃‐N load to stream water could justify serious concerns regarding increased corn rotations in this basin. Simulations with land cover change scenarios helped us spatially classify the grasslands in terms of biomass productivity and nitrogen loads, and we further derived the relationship of biomass production targets and the resulting nitrogen loads against switchgrass planting acreages. The suggested economically efficient (planting acreage) and environmentally friendly (water quality) planting locations and acreages can be a valuable guide for cultivating switchgrass in this basin. This information, along with the projected environmental costs (i.e. reduced water yield and increased nitrogen load), can contribute to decision support tools for land managers to seek the sustainability of biofuel development in this region.     

A realistic meteorological assessment of perennial biofuel crop deployment: a Southern Great Plains perspective

Utility of perennial bioenergy crops (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) offers unique opportunities to transition toward a more sustainable energy pathway due to their reduced carbon footprint, averted competition with food crops, and ability to grow on abandoned and degraded farmlands. Studies that have examined biogeophysical impacts of these crops noted a positive feedback between near‐surface cooling and enhanced evapotranspiration (ET), but also potential unintended consequences of soil moisture and groundwater depletion. To better understand hydrometeorological effects of perennial bioenergy crop expansion, this study conducted high‐resolution (2‐km grid spacing) simulations with a state‐of‐the‐art atmospheric model (Weather Research and Forecasting system) dynamically coupled to a land surface model. We applied the modeling system over the Southern Plains of the United States during a normal precipitation year (2007) and a drought year (2011). By focusing the deployment of bioenergy cropping systems on marginal and abandoned farmland areas (to reduce the potential conflict with food systems), the research presented here is the first realistic examination of hydrometeorological impacts associated with perennial bioenergy crop expansion. Our results illustrate that the deployment of perennial bioenergy crops leads to widespread cooling (1–2 °C) that is largely driven by an enhanced reflection of shortwave radiation and, secondarily, due to an enhanced ET. Bioenergy crop deployment was shown to reduce the impacts of drought through simultaneous moistening and cooling of the near‐surface environment. However, simulated impacts on near‐surface cooling and ET were reduced during the drought relative to a normal precipitation year, revealing differential effects based on background environmental conditions. This study serves as a key step toward the assessment of hydroclimatic sustainability associated with perennial bioenergy crop expansion under diverse hydrometeorological conditions by highlighting the driving mechanisms and processes associated with this energy pathway.     

Pest-Suppression Potential of Midwestern Landscapes under Contrasting Bioenergy Scenarios

Biomass crops grown on marginal soils are expected to fuel an emerging bioenergy industry in the United States. Bioenergy crop choice and position in the landscape could have important impacts on a range of ecosystem services, including natural pest-suppression (biocontrol services) provided by predatory arthropods. In this study we use predation rates of three sentinel crop pests to develop a biocontrol index (BCI) summarizing pest-suppression potential in corn and perennial grass-based bioenergy crops in southern Wisconsin, lower Michigan, and northern Illinois. We show that BCI is higher in perennial grasslands than in corn, and increases with the amount of perennial grassland in the surrounding landscape. We develop an empirical model for predicting BCI from information on energy crop and landscape characteristics, and use the model in a qualitative assessment of changes in biocontrol services for annual croplands on prime agricultural soils under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios. Our analysis suggests that the expansion of annual energy crops onto 1.2 million ha of existing perennial grasslands on marginal soils could reduce BCI between -10 and -64% for nearly half of the annual cropland in the region. In contrast, replacement of the 1.1 million ha of existing annual crops on marginal land with perennial energy crops could increase BCI by 13 to 205% on over half of the annual cropland in the region. Through comparisons with other independent studies, we find that our biocontrol index is negatively related to insecticide use across the Midwest, suggesting that strategically positioned, perennial bioenergy crops could reduce insect damage and insecticide use on neighboring food and forage crops. We suggest that properly validated environmental indices can be used in decision support systems to facilitate integrated assessments of the environmental and economic impacts of different bioenergy policies.     

Farmers' perspectives for the development of a bioenergy industry in Ireland

A survey of Irish farmers was conducted to identify farmers’ opinions on energy crop production and to characterize potential adopters of energy crop cultivation in Ireland. One hundred and seventy‐two surveys were completed from 25 counties in Ireland. Miscanthus (48%) and grass (30%) were the preferred crops for adoption of energy crop production. Potential adopters described themselves as having a significantly greater level of knowledge of energy crop production compared with other respondents. The results indicate that lack of interest in adopting energy crop production may be due to lack of knowledge regarding the economic benefits of adoption and the variety of energy crops available for cultivation in Ireland. The establishment of long‐term contracts and government schemes were identified as important requirements for the development of bioenergy crop production in Ireland. Energy crop adoption was not limited to farmers undertaking specific farm enterprises. Farmers were motivated to adopt energy crop production for both economic and environmental benefits. These results are the first to provide valuable information on the perspectives of potential adopters of bioenergy crop production in Ireland for the promotion and implementation of a national bioenergy industry. Policy requirements and outreach strategies to encourage adoption of energy crops by agricultural producers are suggested.     

Candidate perennial bioenergy grasses have a higher albedo than annual row crops

The production of perennial cellulosic feedstocks for bioenergy presents the potential to diversify regional economies and the national energy supply, while also serving as climate ‘regulators’ due to a number of biogeochemical and biogeophysical differences relative to row crops. Numerous observational and model‐based approaches have investigated biogeochemical trade‐offs, such as increased carbon sequestration and increased water use, associated with growing cellulosic feedstocks. A less understood aspect is the biogeophysical changes associated with the difference in albedo (α), which could alter the local energy balance and cause local to regional cooling several times larger than that associated with offsetting carbon. Here, we established paired fields of Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) and Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), two of the leading perennial cellulosic feedstock candidates, and traditional annual row crops in the highly productive ‘Corn‐belt’. Our results show that miscanthus did and switchgrass did not have an overall higher α than current row crops, but a strong seasonal pattern existed. Both perennials had consistently higher growing season α than row crops and winter α did not differ. The lack of observed differences in winter α, however, masked an interaction between snow cover and species differences, with the perennial species, compared with the row crops, having a higher α when snow was absent and a much lower α when snow was present. Overall, these changes resulted in an average net reduction in annual absorbed energy of about 5 W m^?2 for switchgrass and about 8 W m^?2 for miscanthus relative to annual crops. Therefore, the conversion from annual row to perennial crops alters the radiative balance of the surface via changes in α and could lead to regional cooling.     

Alternative biomass strategies for bioenergy: implications for bird communities across the southeastern United States

Concerns over energy demands and climate change have led the United States to set ambitious targets for bioenergy production in the coming decades. The southeastern United States has had a recent increase in biomass woody pellet production and is projected to produce a large portion of the nation's cellulosic biofuels. We conducted a large‐scale, systematic comparison of potential impacts of two types of bioenergy feedstocks – corn (Zea mays) and pine (Pinus spp.) – on bird communities across the southeastern United States. In addition, we evaluated three biomass alternatives for woody biomass from pine plantations: thinning, residue harvest, and short‐rotation energy plantations (SREPs). We conducted transect counts for birds in eight different land uses across the region (85 sites), including corn fields, reference forest, and plantation forests, 2013–2015. We then used hierarchical occupancy models to test the effect of these biomass alternatives on 31 species. Across all species, birds had lower rates of occupancy in corn fields compared to pine stands. Thinning had positive effects on the average occupancy across species, while residue harvest and the potential conversion of conventional plantations to SREPs had negative effects. Cavity nesters and species with bark‐gleaning foraging strategies tended to show the strongest responses. These results highlight the potential negative effects of corn as an energy crop relative to the use of pine biomass. In addition, harvesting biomass via thinning was a bird‐friendly harvest method in comparison with other alternatives. While SREPs may negatively impact some bird species, previously reported yields emphasize that they may provide an order of magnitude greater yield per unit area than other alternatives considered, such that this land‐use practice may be an important alternative to minimize the bioenergy impacts across the landscape.     

The potential impact of second‐generation biofuel landscapes on at‐risk species in the US

The recent increase in corn ethanol production has drawn attention to the environmental sustainability of biofuel production. Environmental assessments of second‐generation biofuel crops (SGBC) have focused primarily on greenhouse gas emissions and water quality. However, expanding the production of cellulosic biomass resources, especially those that require dedicated agricultural land, is also likely to have impacts on biodiversity. We developed an optimization framework for projecting the spatial pattern of SGBC expansion in the United States and intersected these predictions with occurrence data for at‐risk species. In particular, we focused on two candidate perennial grass feedstocks, Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus). Tradeoffs between biodiversity and economic profitability are assessed using county level data sets of SGBC yield, agricultural land availability, land rents, and at‐risk species occurrences. Results show that future SGBC expansion is likely to occur outside of the Corn Belt, where conventional biofuel feedstocks are currently grown. The set of at‐risk species that could potentially be impacted is therefore likely to be different from the at‐risk species prevalent in the agroecological landscapes of the Upper Midwest that are dominated by corn and soy production. The total number and type of potentially impacted taxa is influenced by several factors, including the total demand for cellulosic biomass, the type of agricultural land used for production, and the method for defining at‐risk species. SGBC production is also concentrated in fewer counties when a national species conservation constraint is combined with a biofuel production mandate. This analysis provides a foundation for future research on species conservation in bioenergy production landscapes and highlights the importance of incorporating biodiversity into broader environmental assessments of biofuel sustainability.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Dedicated Energy Crops and Crop Residues for Bioenergy Feedstocks in the Central and Eastern USA

Dedicated energy crops and crop residues will meet herbaceous feedstock demands for the new bioeconomy in the Central and Eastern USA. Perennial warm-season grasses and corn stover are well-suited to the eastern half of the USA and provide opportunities for expanding agricultural operations in the region. A suite of warm-season grasses and associated management practices have been developed by researchers from the Agricultural Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and collaborators associated with USDA Regional Biomass Research Centers. Second generation biofuel feedstocks provide an opportunity to increase the production of transportation fuels from recently fixed plant carbon rather than from fossil fuels. Although there is no “one-size-fits-all” bioenergy feedstock, crop residues like corn (Zea mays L.) stover are the most readily available bioenergy feedstocks. However, on marginally productive cropland, perennial grasses provide a feedstock supply while enhancing ecosystem services. Twenty-five years of research has demonstrated that perennial grasses like switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) are profitable and environmentally sustainable on marginally productive cropland in the western Corn Belt and Southeastern USA.     

Miscanthus: A fast‐growing crop for environmental remediation and biofuel production

As an herbaceous perennial, Miscanthus has attracted extensive attention in bioenergy refinery and ecological remediation due to its high yield and superior environmental adaptability. This review summarizes current research advances of Miscanthus in several aspects including biological properties, biofuels production, and phytoremediation of contaminated soil. Miscanthus has relatively high biomass yield, calorific value, and cellulose content compared with other lignocellulosic bioenergy crops, which make it one of the most promising feedstocks for the production of second‐generation biofuels. Moreover, Miscanthus can endure soil pollutions caused by various heavy metals and survive in a variety of adverse environmental conditions. Therefore, it also has potential applications in ecological remediation of contaminated soil, and reclamation of polluted soil and water resources. Nevertheless, more endeavors are still needed in the genetic improvement and elite cultivar breeding, large‐scale cultivation on marginal land, and efficient conversion to biofuels, when utilizing Miscanthus as a bioenergy crop. Furthermore, more efforts should also be undertaken to translate Miscanthus into a bioenergy crop with the phytoremediation potential.     

Watershed‐scale impacts of bioenergy crops on hydrology and water quality using improved SWAT model

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstock such as perennial grasses and crop residues are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We used an improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to forecast impacts on watershed hydrology and water quality by implementing an array of plausible land‐use changes associated with commercial bioenergy crop production for two watersheds in the Midwest USA. Watershed‐scale impacts were estimated for 13 bioenergy crop production scenarios, including: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and upland Shawnee switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas and pastures, removal of corn stover and combinations of these options. Water quality, measured as erosion and sediment loading, was forecasted to improve compared to baseline when perennial grasses were used for bioenergy production, but not with stover removal scenarios. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced between 0 and 8% across these bioenergy crop production scenarios compared to baseline across the study watersheds. Results indicate that bioenergy production scenarios that incorporate perennial grasses reduced the nonpoint source pollutant load at the watershed outlet compared to the baseline conditions (0–20% for nitrate‐nitrogen and 3–56% for mineral phosphorus); however, the reduction rates were specific to site characteristics and management practices.     

Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.     

Modeling spatial dependence and economic hotspots in landowners’ willingness to supply bioenergy crops in the northeastern United States

This paper investigates the spatial heterogeneity of landowners’ willingness to supply three bioenergy crops: switchgrass, Miscanthus, and willow, in the northeastern United States. Spatial heterogeneity might arise for several reasons. For example, landowners closer to bioenergy processing plants might be more likely to be willing to supply bioenergy crops, and landowners who are more willing to supply bioenergy crops may be spatially clustered because they share similar land attributes, demographics, experiences, and/or values. Using high‐resolution GIS data related to the location of pellet plants utilizing bioenergy crops and survey data related to landowners’ characteristics including spatial location, we estimate a spatial probit model to explain the variation in individual‐specific reservation prices (RPs)—the feedstock price at which landowners become willing to supply a bioenergy crop. We find that respondents’ RP is lower the closer they live to their nearest pellet plant and spatial dependency is only present for switchgrass supply. We also identify three economic hotspots (areas with high potential supply and low RPs) for each bioenergy crop. We believe that bioenergy supply chains could be developed around these hotspots.     

Hydrological responses of land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to cellulosic bioenergy crops in the Southern High Plains of Texas,USA

The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas in the United States, where cotton is grown in a vast acreage, has the potential to grow cellulosic bioenergy crops such as perennial grasses and biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor). Evaluation of hydrological responses and biofuel production potential of hypothetical land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to cellulosic bioenergy crops enables better understanding of the associated key agroecosystem processes and provides for the feasibility assessment of the targeted land use change in the SHP. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of replacing cotton with perennial Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss. [Poaceae]), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) and annual biomass sorghum on water balances, water use efficiency and biofuel production potential in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos watershed. Under perennial grass scenarios, the average (1994–2009) annual surface runoff from the entire watershed decreased by 6–8% relative to the baseline cotton scenario. In contrast, surface runoff increased by about 5% under the biomass sorghum scenario. Perennial grass land use change scenarios suggested an increase in average annual percolation within a range of 3–22% and maintenance of a higher soil water content during August to April compared to the baseline cotton scenario. About 19.1, 11.1, 3.2 and 8.8 Mg ha^?1 of biomass could potentially be produced if cotton area in the watershed would hypothetically be replaced by Miscanthus, switchgrass, big bluestem and biomass sorghum, respectively. Finally, Miscanthus and switchgrass were found to be ideal bioenergy crops for the dryland and irrigated systems, respectively, in the study watershed due to their higher water use efficiency, better water conservation effects, greater biomass and biofuel production potential, and minimum crop management requirements.     

Global simulation of bioenergy crop productivity: analytical framework and case study for switchgrass

A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global‐scale agro‐ecosystem modeling. We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized natural resources datasets, (ii) global field‐trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high‐performance computing (HPC) simulation, and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC‐Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (HPC‐EPIC) model simulated a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus, energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass field‐trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding metrics of sustainability.