Selectively bred oysters can alter their biomineralization pathways,promoting resilience to environmental acidification

Commercial shellfish aquaculture is vulnerable to the impacts of ocean acidification driven by increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) absorption by the ocean as well as to coastal acidification driven by land run off and rising sea level. These drivers of environmental acidification have deleterious effects on biomineralization. We investigated shell biomineralization of selectively bred and wild‐type families of the Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata in a study of oysters being farmed in estuaries at aquaculture leases differing in environmental acidification. The contrasting estuarine pH regimes enabled us to determine the mechanisms of shell growth and the vulnerability of this species to contemporary environmental acidification. Determination of the source of carbon, the mechanism of carbon uptake and use of carbon in biomineral formation are key to understanding the vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to contemporary and future environmental acidification. We, therefore, characterized the crystallography and carbon uptake in the shells of S. glomerata, resident in habitats subjected to coastal acidification, using high‐resolution electron backscatter diffraction and carbon isotope analyses (as δ¹³C). We show that oyster families selectively bred for fast growth and families selected for disease resistance can alter their mechanisms of calcite crystal biomineralization, promoting resilience to acidification. The responses of S. glomerata to acidification in their estuarine habitat provide key insights into mechanisms of mollusc shell growth under future climate change conditions. Importantly, we show that selective breeding in oysters is likely to be an important global mitigation strategy for sustainable shellfish aquaculture to withstand future climate‐driven change to habitat acidification.     

Integrating the Concept of Resilience into an Ecosystem Approach to Bivalve Aquaculture Management

Bivalve aquaculture has become increasingly important for marine protein production and is an alternative to exploiting natural resources. Its further and sustainable development should follow an ecosystem approach, to maintain both biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The identification of critical thresholds to development remains difficult. The present work aims at combining the calculation of the system’s ecological carrying capacity (ECC) with the ecosystem view of resilience for a bay system exposed to bivalve (scallop) aquaculture. Using a trophic food-web model, a stepwise further expansion of culture activities was simulated, and the impact on the system was evaluated twofold: First, a recently developed approach to estimating ECC was used, and second, a resilience indicator was calculated, which is based on the distribution of consumption flows within the trophic network (sensu Arreguín-Sanchez in Ecol Model 272: 27–276, 2014). Results suggest that a culture expansion beyond present-day scale would (a) cause a shift in community composition towards a system dominated by secondary consumers, (b) lead to the loss of system compartments, affecting ecosystem functioning, and (c) result in a decrease in resilience, emphasizing the need to regulate aquaculture activities. The applicability and potential of this presented method in the context of an ecosystem-based approach to aquaculture is discussed. This work aims at adding to the ongoing discussion on sustainable bivalve aquaculture and is expected to help guide aquaculture management.     

Phytoplankton decline in the eastern North Pacific transition zone associated with atmospheric blocking

Global climate change can significantly influence oceanic phytoplankton dynamics, and thus biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs. However, associative explanations based on the correlation between chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl‐a) and climatic indices is inadequate to describe the mechanism of the connection between climate change, large‐scale atmospheric dynamics, and phytoplankton variability. Here, by analyzing multiple satellite observations of Chl‐a and atmospheric conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets, we show that high‐latitude atmospheric blocking events over Alaska are the primary drivers of the recent decline of Chl‐a in the eastern North Pacific transition zone. These blocking events were associated with the persistence of large‐scale atmosphere pressure fields that decreased westerly winds and southward Ekman transport over the subarctic ocean gyre. Reduced southward Ekman transport leads to reductions in nutrient availability to phytoplankton in the transition zone. The findings describe a previously unidentified climatic factor that contributed to the recent decline of phytoplankton in this region and propose a mechanism of the top‐down teleconnection between the high‐latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies and the subtropical oceanic primary productivity. The results also highlight the importance of understanding teleconnection among atmosphere–ocean interactions as a means to anticipate future climate change impacts on oceanic primary production.     

Food web de‐synchronization in England's largest lake: an assessment based on multiple phenological metrics

Phenological changes have been observed globally for marine, freshwater and terrestrial species, and are an important element of the global biological ‘fingerprint’ of climate change. Differences in rates of change could desynchronize seasonal species interactions within a food web, threatening ecosystem functioning. Quantification of this risk is hampered by the rarity of long‐term data for multiple interacting species from the same ecosystem and by the diversity of possible phenological metrics, which vary in their ecological relevance to food web interactions. We compare phenological change for phytoplankton (chlorophyll a), zooplankton (Daphnia) and fish (perch, Perca fluviatilis) in two basins of Windermere over 40 years and determine whether change has differed among trophic levels, while explicitly accounting for among‐metric differences in rates of change. Though rates of change differed markedly among the nine metrics used, seasonal events shifted earlier for all metrics and trophic levels: zooplankton advanced most, and fish least, rapidly. Evidence of altered synchrony was found in both lake basins, when combining information from all phenological metrics. However, comparisons based on single metrics did not consistently detect this signal. A multimetric approach showed that across trophic levels, earlier phenological events have been associated with increasing water temperature. However, for phytoplankton and zooplankton, phenological change was also associated with changes in resource availability. Lower silicate, and higher phosphorus, concentrations were associated with earlier phytoplankton growth, and earlier phytoplankton growth was associated with earlier zooplankton growth. The developing trophic mismatch detected between the dominant fish species in Windermere and important zooplankton food resources may ultimately affect fish survival and portend significant impacts upon ecosystem functioning. We advocate that future studies on phenological synchrony combine data from multiple phenological metrics, to increase confidence in assessments of change and likely ecological consequences.     

127 Climate Variability and Phytoplankton Production in PNW Coast Estuaries

The west coast of North America receives strong forcing from climate modes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Estuaries are poised at a sensitive interface because estuarine biota and habitat will be affected by variability in properties and processes associated with the ocean, the watershed, and the local weather. Observations from the Washington coast and Willapa Bay illustrate these three arenas of influence. Variation in ocean upwelling and ocean thermocline depth associated with the 1997–98 El Niño versus the 1999 La Niña affected temperature and nutrient availability in Willapa Bay. Variation in river flow associated with the 2000–01 drought affected estuarine circulation and residence time. And, variation in prevailing wind direction and/or cloudiness was highly correlated with phytoplankton biomass. This situation is responsible for the complexity of understanding climate impacts on estuarine systems. In order to help evaluate which mechanisms, remote oceanic processes or local watershed/estuarine characteristics, most affected Willapa Bay's phytoplankton production, several phytoplankton species were used as indicators of water mass origin and compared with primary productivity data to assess whether phytoplankton blooms were dominated by endemic or imported species. Our analysis resolved that the highest primary production (and the appearance of Pseudo-nitzschia spp.) was associated with oceanic intrusions of phytoplankton biomass into Willapa Bay. This result underscores the dominant role that variation in ocean and climate play in controlling Pacific Northwest estuarine production. However, while the largest blooms were oceanic in origin, numerous medium-sized production events were from either oceanic or estuarine sources, indicating a complex picture.     

Climate change does not affect the seafood quality of a commonly targeted fish

Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near‐future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and commercially important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near‐future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro‐ and micronutrients, moisture, ash and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near‐future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their wide spatio‐temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near‐future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future. We contend that widely distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be “climate winners” by being resilient to the negative direct impacts of near‐future oceanic and estuarine climate change.     

Marine biodiversity�Cecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures

Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. The recognition that these ecosystems provide services that are essential for human well-being has led to a major interest in the forms of the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. However, there is a lack of studies examining the impact of climate change on these relationships and it remains unclear how multiple climatic drivers may affect levels of ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the roles of two important climate change variables, temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, on the relationship between invertebrate species richness and nutrient release in a model benthic estuarine system. We found a positive relationship between invertebrate species richness and the levels of release of NH₄-N into the water column, but no effect of species richness on the release of PO₄-P. Higher temperatures and greater concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide had a negative impact on nutrient release. Importantly, we found significant interactions between the climate variables, indicating that reliably predicting the effects of future climate change will not be straightforward as multiple drivers are unlikely to have purely additive effects, resulting in increased levels of uncertainty.     

Climatic effects on the phenology of lake processes

Populations living in seasonal environments are exposed to systematic changes in physical conditions that restrict the growth and reproduction of many species to only a short time window of the annual cycle. Several studies have shown that climate changes over the latter part of the 20th century affected the phenology and population dynamics of single species. However, the key limitation to forecasting the effects of changing climate on ecosystems lies in understanding how it will affect interactions among species. We investigated the effects of climatic and biotic drivers on physical and biological lake processes, using a historical dataset of 40 years from Lake Washington, USA, and dynamic time‐series models to explain changes in the phenological patterns among physical and biological components of pelagic ecosystems. Long‐term climate warming and variability because of large‐scale climatic patterns like Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) extended the duration of the stratification period by 25 days over the last 40 years. This change was due mainly to earlier spring stratification (16 days) and less to later stratification termination in fall (9 days). The phytoplankton spring bloom advanced roughly in parallel to stratification onset and in 2002 it occurred about 19 days earlier than it did in 1962, indicating the tight connection of spring phytoplankton growth to turbulent conditions. In contrast, the timing of the clear‐water phase showed high variability and was mainly driven by biotic factors. Among the zooplankton species, the timing of spring peaks in the rotifer Keratella advanced strongly, whereas Leptodiaptomus and Daphnia showed slight or no changes. These changes have generated a growing time lag between the spring phytoplankton peak and zooplankton peak, which can be especially critical for the cladoceran Daphnia. Water temperature, PDO, and food availability affected the timing of the spring peak in zooplankton. Overall, the impact of PDO on the phenological processes were stronger compared with ENSO. Our results highlight that climate affects physical and biological processes differently, which can interrupt energy flow among trophic levels, making ecosystem responses to climate change difficult to forecast.     

A Box Model for Ecosystem-Level Management of Mussel Culture Carrying Capacity in a Coastal Bay

The carrying capacity of shellfish aquaculture is determined by the interaction of cultured species with the ecosystem, particularly food availability to suspension feeders. A multiple box dynamic ecosystem model was constructed to examine the carrying capacity for mussel (Mytilus edulis) aquaculture in Tracadie Bay, Prince of Edward Island, Canada. Criteria for carrying capacity were based on chlorophyll concentration. The model was run in two different years (1998 and 1999) in which time series for three points inside the bay and a point outside the bay were available. This data set allows spatial validation of the ecosystem model and assessment of its sensitivity to changes in boundary conditions. The model validation process indicated that the differential equations and parameters used in the simulation provided robust prediction of the ecological dynamics within the bay. Results verified that mussel biomass exerts top-down control of phytoplankton populations. The model indicates that conditions observed during 1999 are more sensitive to grazing pressure from aquaculture than was observed during 1998, highlighting the importance of inter-annual variability in carrying capacity of the bay. This result is important from a management perspective because it emphasizes application of a precautionary policy and prediction in regulation of aquaculture activity in the bay. Retrospective scenarios showed that although the bay could yield greater mussel biomass production, stress on the environment would lead the ecosystem outside of its natural range of variation. Despite the spatial simplicity employed in the present model, it provides substantial management capability as well as an ecosystem-oriented approach to shellfish aquaculture.     

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3‐D coupled physical‐biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate‐change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom‐up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.     

Cyanobacteria dominance influences resource use efficiency and community turnover in phytoplankton and zooplankton communities

Freshwater biodiversity loss potentially disrupts ecosystem services related to water quality and may negatively impact ecosystem functioning and temporal community turnover. We analysed a data set containing phytoplankton and zooplankton community data from 131 lakes through 9 years in an agricultural region to test predictions that plankton communities with low biodiversity are less efficient in their use of limiting resources and display greater community turnover (measured as community dissimilarity). Phytoplankton resource use efficiency (RUE = biomass per unit resource) was negatively related to phytoplankton evenness (measured as Pielou's evenness), whereas zooplankton RUE was positively related to phytoplankton evenness. Phytoplankton and zooplankton RUE were high and low, respectively, when Cyanobacteria, especially Microcystis sp., dominated. Phytoplankton communities displayed slower community turnover rates when dominated by few genera. Our findings, which counter findings of many terrestrial studies, suggest that Cyanobacteria dominance may play important roles in ecosystem functioning and community turnover in nutrient‐enriched lakes.     

OCEAN CLIMATE CHANGE,PHYTOPLANKTON COMMUNITY RESPONSES,AND HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS: A FORMIDABLE PREDICTIVE CHALLENGE1

Prediction of the impact of global climate change on marine HABs is fraught with difficulties. However, we can learn important lessons from the fossil record of dinoflagellate cysts; long‐term monitoring programs, such as the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys; and short‐term phytoplankton community responses to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) episodes. Increasing temperature, enhanced surface stratification, alteration of ocean currents, intensification or weakening of local nutrient upwelling, stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated CO₂, reduced calcification through ocean acidification (“the other CO₂ problem”), and heavy precipitation and storm events causing changes in land runoff and micronutrient availability may all produce contradictory species‐ or even strain‐specific responses. Complex factor interactions exist, and simulated ecophysiological laboratory experiments rarely allow for sufficient acclimation and rarely take into account physiological plasticity and genetic strain diversity. We can expect: (i) range expansion of warm‐water species at the expense of cold‐water species, which are driven poleward; (ii) species‐specific changes in the abundance and seasonal window of growth of HAB taxa; (iii) earlier timing of peak production of some phytoplankton; and (iv) secondary effects for marine food webs, notably when individual zooplankton and fish grazers are differentially impacted (“match‐mismatch”) by climate change. Some species of harmful algae (e.g., toxic dinoflagellates benefitting from land runoff and/or water column stratification, tropical benthic dinoflagellates responding to increased water temperatures and coral reef disturbance) may become more successful, while others may diminish in areas currently impacted. Our limited understanding of marine ecosystem responses to multifactorial physicochemical climate drivers as well as our poor knowledge of the potential of marine microalgae to adapt genetically and phenotypically to the unprecedented pace of current climate change are emphasized. The greatest problems for human society will be caused by being unprepared for significant range expansions or the increase of algal biotoxin problems in currently poorly monitored areas, thus calling for increased vigilance in seafood‐biotoxin and HAB monitoring programs. Changes in phytoplankton communities provide a sensitive early warning for climate‐driven perturbations to marine ecosystems.     

Complex seasonal patterns of primary producers at the land-sea interface

Seasonal fluctuations of plant biomass and photosynthesis are key features of the Earth system because they drive variability of atmospheric CO₂, water and nutrient cycling, and food supply to consumers. There is no inventory of phytoplankton seasonal cycles in nearshore coastal ecosystems where forcings from ocean, land and atmosphere intersect. We compiled time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) from 114 estuaries, lagoons, inland seas, bays and shallow coastal waters around the world, and searched for seasonal patterns as common timing and amplitude of monthly variability. The data revealed a broad continuum of seasonal patterns, with large variability across and within ecosystems. This contrasts with annual cycles of terrestrial and oceanic primary producers for which seasonal fluctuations are recurrent and synchronous over large geographic regions. This finding bears on two fundamental ecological questions: (1) how do estuarine and coastal consumers adapt to an irregular and unpredictable food supply, and (2) how can we extract signals of climate change from phytoplankton observations in coastal ecosystems where local‐scale processes can mask responses to changing climate?     

Coastal acidification impacts on shell mineral structure of bivalve mollusks

Ocean acidification is occurring globally through increasing CO₂ absorption into the oceans creating particular concern for calcifying species. In addition to ocean acidification, near shore marine habitats are exposed to the deleterious effects of runoff from acid sulfate soils which also decreases environmental pH. This coastal acidification is being exacerbated by climate change‐driven sea‐level rise and catchment‐driven flooding. In response to reduction in habitat pH by ocean and coastal acidification, mollusks are predicted to produce thinner shells of lower structural integrity and reduced mechanical properties threatening mollusk aquaculture. Here, we present the first study to examine oyster biomineralization under acid sulfate soil acidification in a region where growth of commercial bivalve species has declined in recent decades. Examination of the crystallography of the shells of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, by electron back scatter diffraction analyses revealed that the signal of environmental acidification is evident in the structure of the biomineral. Saccostrea glomerata, shows phenotypic plasticity, as evident in the disruption of crystallographic control over biomineralization in populations living in coastal acidification sites. Our results indicate that reduced sizes of these oysters for commercial sale may be due to the limited capacity of oysters to biomineralize under acidification conditions. As the impact of this catchment source acidification will continue to be exacerbated by climate change with likely effects on coastal aquaculture in many places across the globe, management strategies will be required to maintain the sustainable culture of these key resources.     

Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans

Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate‐driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate‐driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10⁷ km², n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km², n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate‐related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate‐related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate‐driven ocean change. Our findings reveal that highly cited biological studies are rarely conducted on scales that match those of physical and chemical studies. Rather, we suggest a need for measuring responses at biologically relevant scales.     

Estuary–ocean connectivity: fast physics,slow biology

Estuaries are connected to both land and ocean so their physical, chemical, and biological dynamics are influenced by climate patterns over watersheds and ocean basins. We explored climate‐driven oceanic variability as a source of estuarine variability by comparing monthly time series of temperature and chlorophyll‐a inside San Francisco Bay with those in adjacent shelf waters of the California Current System (CCS) that are strongly responsive to wind‐driven upwelling. Monthly temperature fluctuations inside and outside the Bay were synchronous, but their correlations weakened with distance from the ocean. These results illustrate how variability of coastal water temperature (and associated properties such as nitrate and oxygen) propagates into estuaries through fast water exchanges that dissipate along the estuary. Unexpectedly, there was no correlation between monthly chlorophyll‐a variability inside and outside the Bay. However, at the annual scale Bay chlorophyll‐a was significantly correlated with the Spring Transition Index (STI) that sets biological production supporting fish recruitment in the CCS. Wind forcing of the CCS shifted in the late 1990s when the STI advanced 40 days. This shift was followed, with lags of 1–3 years, by 3‐ to 19‐fold increased abundances of five ocean‐produced demersal fish and crustaceans and 2.5‐fold increase of summer chlorophyll‐a in the Bay. These changes reflect a slow biological process of estuary–ocean connectivity operating through the immigration of fish and crustaceans that prey on bivalves, reduce their grazing pressure, and allow phytoplankton biomass to build. We identified clear signals of climate‐mediated oceanic variability in this estuary and discovered that the response patterns vary with the process of connectivity and the timescale of ocean variability. This result has important implications for managing nutrient inputs to estuaries connected to upwelling systems, and for assessing their responses to changing patterns of upwelling timing and intensity as the planet continues to warm.     

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy‐makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS‐II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short‐term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon–juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought‐induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles.     

Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO₂ and temperature, CO₂ and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%–6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (−8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (−5.0% vs. −9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of −10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (−7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.     

Community composition has greater impact on the functioning of marine phytoplankton communities than ocean acidification

Ecosystem functioning is simultaneously affected by changes in community composition and environmental change such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and subsequent ocean acidification. However, it largely remains uncertain how the effects of these factors compare to each other. Addressing this question, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that initial community composition and elevated CO₂ are equally important to the regulation of phytoplankton biomass. We full‐factorially exposed three compositionally different marine phytoplankton communities to two different CO₂ levels and examined the effects and relative importance (ω²) of the two factors and their interaction on phytoplankton biomass at bloom peak. The results showed that initial community composition had a significantly greater impact than elevated CO₂ on phytoplankton biomass, which varied largely among communities. We suggest that the different initial ratios between cyanobacteria, diatoms, and dinoflagellates might be the key for the varying competitive and thus functional outcome among communities. Furthermore, the results showed that depending on initial community composition elevated CO₂ selected for larger sized diatoms, which led to increased total phytoplankton biomass. This study highlights the relevance of initial community composition, which strongly drives the functional outcome, when assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. In particular, the increase in phytoplankton biomass driven by the gain of larger sized diatoms in response to elevated CO₂ potentially has strong implications for nutrient cycling and carbon export in future oceans.     

Ambiguous climate impacts on competition between submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton in shallow lakes

1. Shallow lakes may switch from a state dominated by submerged macrophytes to a phytoplankton‐dominated state when a critical nutrient concentration is exceeded. We explore how climate change may affect this critical nutrient concentration by linking a graphical model to data from 83 lakes along a large climate gradient in South America. 2. The data indicate that in warmer climates, submerged macrophytes may tolerate more underwater shade than in cooler lakes. By contrast, the relationship between phytoplankton biomass [approximated by chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) or biovolume] and nutrient concentrations did not change consistently along the climate gradient. In warmer climates, the correlation between phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentrations was overall weak, especially at low total phosphorus (TP) concentrations where the chl‐a/ TP ratio could be either low or high. 3. Although the enhanced shade tolerance of submerged plants in warmer lakes might promote the stability of their dominance, the potentially high phytoplankton biomass at low nutrient concentrations suggests an overall low predictability of climate effects. 4. We found that near‐bottom oxygen concentrations are lower in warm lakes than in cooler lakes, implying that anoxic P release from eutrophic sediment in warm lakes likely causes higher TP concentrations in the water column. Subsequently, this may lead to a higher phytoplankton biomass in warmer lakes than in cooler lakes with similar external nutrient loadings. 5. Our results indicate that climate effects on the competitive balance between submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton are not straightforward.